2025: The Year The Global Order Unravels

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

World War 3 is already well underway, even though most don’t recognize it…

Russia, China, and their allies want to transform the current US-led world order that has been in place since the end of WW2 from unipolar to multipolar—giving themselves a bigger seat at the table in the process.

The US and its allies want the unipolar status quo to prevail.

WW3 is unlikely to evolve into a direct kinetic war between the US, Russia, and China because that could invite nuclear Armageddon, where everyone loses.

Instead, WW3 is playing out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological wars, deniable sabotage, and information wars.

This is World War 3. It’s happening right now and rapidly escalating.

2025 could be the year it all comes to a head.

As I see it, World War 3 is a conflict between two geopolitical blocks.

The first block consists of the US and its allies who have hitched their wagons to the unipolar world order.

I’m reluctant to call this block “the West” because the people who control it have values antithetical to Western Civilization.

A more fitting label would be NATO & Friends.

The other block comprises Russia, China, Iran, and other countries favorable to a multipolar world order.

Let’s call them the BRICS+, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other interested countries.

BRICS+ is not a perfect label, but it’s a decent representation of the countries favorable to the multipolar world order.

Some countries don’t fall decisively into one category. I’ve put these countries in a separate Non-Aligned category. They are prime arenas of competition for NATO & Friends and BRICS+.

Below is an approximate map of the geopolitical chessboard as I see it. Click the image to enlarge.

I believe proxy warfare will likely determine who wins World War 3 and gets to shape the new world order.

Proxy wars are a method by which major powers fight their battles indirectly, using smaller nations or groups as stand-ins rather than confronting each other directly.

Major powers support, equip, and finance smaller groups or nations in a proxy war to fight against a common adversary. This support can include military training, weapons, funding, and other resources. The critical point is that the major powers do not engage directly in combat.

There are numerous ongoing proxy wars in World War 3.

However, the ones I believe will prove decisive will be in Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Middle East. The other proxy wars are peripheral in comparison.

Unlike in Europe (Russia) or East Asia (China), there is no sophisticated nuclear power to deter NATO & Friends from more aggressive military action in the Middle East. Iran is, therefore, the weak link in the BRICS+ alliance to push for a multipolar world order.

That’s why I expect NATO & Friends will make their last stand to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order and preserve the US-led world order in the Middle East.

The Middle East is roughly divided into two different geopolitical groups.

The first is the US and its allies—Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and others.

(Though Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are members of BRICS+, their true allegiance is with the agenda of NATO & Friends).

The second group consists of Iran and its allies—the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, several Palestinian groups (including Hamas), and an assortment of militias in Iraq.

Iran is a key member of BRICS+ and a proponent of a multipolar world order. That’s why Russia and China stand behind Iran with economic, political, and military support.

In early 2024, the geopolitical momentum in the Middle East appeared to be with Iran and its allies.

However, that all changed recently as the Middle East has undergone its most significant geopolitical transformation in generations.

It culminated with militants supported by Turkey, Israel, and the US overthrowing Bashar al-Assad in Syria. It dealt a severe blow to Iran and its allies and, by extension, the multipolar agenda of BRICS+.

Previously, it seemed Turkey was moving closer to BRICS+. However, after recent events, it’s now unambiguous. After delivering the biggest geopolitical win for NATO & Friends in decades, there’s little doubt Turkey is fully onboard with their agenda.

Turkey has emerged as the dominant power and kingmaker in Syria, extending NATO & Friends’ influence into new strategic territory in the heart of the Middle East.

Turkey’s ambitions likely extend well beyond Syria. Erdogan has made no secret of his intention to create a Neo-Ottoman Empire. He now has a golden opportunity to make this a reality with the help of NATO & Friends.

Turkey’s conquest of Syria is not without immense challenges. The country remains fractured and unstable.

Armed Kurdish forces, avowed foes of Turkey, control about a third of Syria.

Assad loyalists are concentrated in the coastal region and other parts of the country. They remain heavily armed and hostile to the new Syrian authorities.

There are ISIS remnants that haven’t submitted to the new government either.

Then there is the Israeli military, which has destroyed all of Syria’s previously formidable air defense systems. The Israeli Air Force now has free reign over the skies of Syria. Israeli tanks and soldiers have occupied new strategic parts of the country.

In short, the new Syrian authorities have a gigantic mess to deal with. They do not have a monopoly on the use of force within Syria’s borders, and it’s unlikely they’ll be able to achieve that anytime soon.

That’s why Syria could easily continue being a geopolitical black hole, sucking in blood and treasury from anyone who tries to stabilize a situation that cannot be stabilized.

Presuming Syria can be stabilized—which is a big if—who will pay for the hundreds of billions required for the country’s reconstruction after more than 14 years of war?

Nobody knows.

Turkey and, by extension, NATO & Friends were popping champagne over Assad’s ouster. But the celebration may end soon as they realize they have bit off more than they can chew.

Turkey, the US, and Israel will be responsible for the chaos that comes out of Syria, which is likely to balkanize with unpredictable results.

In any case, I have little doubt that NATO & Friends will try to use growing Turkish influence as a way to reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East in their favor as the arbitrary lines (imposed by the Sykes-Picot Agreement of a century ago) that define most modern Middle East nation states collapse.

In other words, NATO & Friends want an incipient Neo-Ottoman Empire to be the dominant power in the Middle East. BRICS+ wants Iran to be the dominant regional power.

Nobody knows who will prevail in the Middle East and, by extension, WW3.

The situation is fluid, volatile, and uncertain.

There is an excellent chance that NATO & Friends will lose in Ukraine and Taiwan. I think that means they will not be able to stop the emergence of a multipolar world order unless they subdue the Middle East. And they can’t do that unless they overthrow the government in Iran.

The fall of Assad is indeed a setback for BRICS+, but not a decisive defeat.

If NATO & Friends want a decisive victory in the Middle East, they will need to take out the government in Iran.

That’s why I think Iran will be the decisive battlefield of WW3.

Here is an updated geopolitical map of the Middle East and surrounding region as I see it.

With Iran’s allies across the Middle East suffering devastating blows in 2024, the US, Israel, and their allies have the most favorable conditions to attack Iran that have existed in decades.

I suspect they will not let this window of opportunity close without taking advantage of it.

It could happen in 2025.

If an attack on Iran does happen, I believe it will be the defining battle of WW3.

But it will not be a cakewalk…

Unlike most other nation states in the Middle East, Iran (known as Persia before 1935) is not an artificial construct. By race, religion, and social history, it is a nation. European bureaucrats didn’t dream up Iran by drawing zigzags on a map. The map reflects the geographic reality of a country with natural, fortress-like mountain borders. In the east, the Roman Empire generally ended where the Persian Empire began.

The US and its allies have tried to overthrow Iran’s government for over 46 years. They’ve tried pretty much everything short of a full-scale invasion.

In short, NATO & Friends have few other cards to play against Iran.

If the US really wants to decapitate the BRICS+ agenda in the Middle East, it would need to overthrow the Iranian government. That would require waging a full-scale regional war against all of Iran’s allies and launching a ground invasion of Iran.

Remember, during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988)—back when Saddam was a “good guy”—he threw over 500,000 Iraqi soldiers at the Iranian meat grinder, had the backing of the US AND the Soviet Union, and used chemical weapons on a scale not seen since WW1… and he barely made a dent in Iran.

The reality is that if the US is serious about invading Iran, it would likely require total mobilization and bringing back the draft. That is not likely to happen, but even if it did, it would not guarantee US victory.

If Iran thought the US was going to invade, it could also develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent within a matter of weeks or less. It might also already have a couple of secretly obtained nukes.

Given those unfavorable prospects, NATO & Friends could decide to use nuclear weapons on Iran preemptively.

Iran is well aware that the US or Israel could use nuclear weapons against it. It has contingency plans for that outcome to ensure the survival of its government. Iran’s plans also likely include making a dash for developing its own nuclear arsenal to be able to respond in kind.

Further, it’s doubtful that Russia and China would just sit back and do nothing if NATO & Friends looked like they might nuke Iran. For example, Russia could decide to station nuclear weapons and Russian soldiers on Iranian soil as a deterrent.

In short, NATO & Friends using nukes on Iran could lead to an unpredictable series of events that could quickly spiral out of control, so I don’t view it as a likely outcome.

The Bottom Line

NATO & Friends don’t have any attractive options when it comes to dealing with Iran.

However, with the sun about to set on the US-led unipolar world order and the most favorable conditions to attack Iran that have existed in decades, they may think it’s their last best chance and go for it in 2025.

What will happen, and who will prevail?

Of course, no one can know that with certainty.

That being said, I think we can count on escalating tensions that could culminate in war with Iran in 2025.

The implications of that are difficult to overstate.

War with Iran would undoubtedly destroy all models for the energy market and cause a global economic collapse.

Most people don’t appreciate how close we are to the precipice of a historical disaster.

Countless millions throughout history were wiped out financially—or worse—during the previous world wars because they failed to see the correct Big Picture and take appropriate action.

Don’t be one of them.

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