Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: PCE, GDP And More Fed Speakers

All roads this week point towards the April US core PCE print on Friday which in MoM terms is expected to edge down from +0.32% to +0.26%, which would be the lowest monthly increase of 2024. As DB’s Jim Reid notes, you don’t need an economist to tell you how well scrutinized this data will be and how important it is to the Fed. As part of the same release, personal income (+0.4% forecast vs. +0.5% previously) and consumption (+0.2% vs. +0.8%) will likely come in a little softer.

Back to inflation, and the preliminary May CPIs are out in Germany tomorrow, and in France, Italy and the Eurozone on Friday. DB’s European economists see this coming in at + 2.55% (+2.4% in April) for headline and +2.84% (+2.66% April) for core inflation. At the start of 2024, euro area inflation avoided the sizeable upside surprises we saw in the US, but the last print in April did see core inflation slightly stronger than expected. It would be a tall order for the data to derail the strongly signaled ECB cut next week but it could have important implications for the ECB’s signal beyond this. We will also have the latest inflation expectations from the ECB consumer expectations survey for April today. A DB survey suggests that median medium-term expectations are likely to stay stable at 2.5%. Finally on inflation, Tokyo CPI is also out on Friday.

Elsewhere, in the US we have consumer confidence today, the Fed Beige Book tomorrow, the second reading of GDP and the Trade Balance on Thursday with the Chicago PMI alongside the personal spending and income report (alongside core PCE) on Friday. In China, May’s PMIs on Friday will be the highlight. You can see the full day-by-day week ahead at the end including all the main central bank speakers highlighted too.

In what is a busy busy year for elections, this week we have the South African election tomorrow, the last leg of the Indian elections on Saturday and the Mexican equivalent on Sunday. Note it’s also less than two weeks until the European Parliamentary elections.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Tuesday May 28

• Data : US Q1 house price purchase index, March FHFA house price index, May Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Japan April PPI services, Germany April wholesale price index, Canada April industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks : Fed’s Mester, Cook and Kashkari speak, ECB’s consumer expectations survey, ECB’s Knot and Schnabel speak, BoE’s Haskel speaks
• Earnings : Cava
• Auctions : US 2-yr Notes ($69bn), 5yr Notes ($70bn)

Wednesday May 29

• Data : US May Richmond Fed manufacturing index and business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, Japan May consumer confidence index, Germany June GfK consumer confidence, May CPI, France May consumer confidence, Italy May consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, Eurozone April M3
• Central banks : Fed’s Beige Book, Williams speaks, BoJ’s Adachi speaks, ECB’s Villeroy speaks
• Earnings : Salesforce, Telecom Italia
• Auctions : US 2-yr FRNs (reopening, $28bn), 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Thursday May 30

• Data : US April advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, retail inventories, pending home sales, initial jobless claims, Italy April unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone May services, industrial, economic confidence, April unemployment rate, Canada Q1 current account balance, Sweden and Switzerland Q1 GDP
• Central banks : Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Logan speak, BoE’s Breeden speaks
• Earnings : Dell, Marvell, Dollar General, Costco

Friday May 31

• Data : US April personal income and spending, PCE, May MNI Chicago PMI, China May PMIs, UK May Lloyds Business Barometer, April net consumer credit, M4, Japan April jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, May Tokyo CPI, Germany April retail sales, import price index, France Q1 total payrolls, April consumer spending, PPI, May CPI, Italy May CPI, March industrial sales, Eurozone May CPI, Canada Q1 GDP
• Central banks : Fed’s Bostic speaks, ECB’s Vujcic speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are Q1 GDP revision on Thursday and the core PCE report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including remarks from Governors Bowman and Cook, and Presidents Mester, Kashkari, Williams, Bostic, and Logan.

Tuesday, May 28

• 12:55 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak at an event hosted by the Bank of Japan in Tokyo about the effects of conventional and unconventional policy instruments. Speech text is expected. On May 16, Mester said “monetary policy is well positioned for risk management as we gather more evidence on how the economy is evolving” and that she “expected progress on inflation over time, but at a slower pace than we saw last year.”
• 12:55 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at a closed event at the Bank of Japan. Speech text is expected. On May 17, Bowman said “at its current setting, our monetary policy stance spears to be restrictive… my baseline outlook continues to be that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady, but I still see a number of upside inflation risks that affect my outlook.”
• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, March (consensus +0.5%, last +1.2%)
• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, March (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.30%, last +0.61%)
• 09:55 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give a speaker address followed by panel remarks at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London. A Q&A is expected. On May 15, Kashkari said “we probably need to sit here for a while longer until we figure out where underlying inflation is headed before we jump to any conclusions.”
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, May (GS 96.4, consensus 96.0, last 97.0)
• 01:05 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on AI and the economy at the San Francisco Fed. A Q&A is expected. On March 25, Cook said “The path of disinflation, as expected, has been bumpy and uneven, but a careful approach to further policy adjustments can ensure that inflation will return sustainably to 2% while striving to maintain the strong labor market.”

Wednesday, May 29

• 01:45 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will join the Watertown Community Services Roundtable in Watertown, NY. On May 16, Williams said “I don’t see any indicators now telling me … there’s a reason to change the stance of monetary policy now, and I don’t expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on the inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term.”
• 02:00 PM Beige Book, June Meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the April/May FOMC meeting period noted that activity expanded slightly in early 2024 and that firms’ economic outlook for the remainder of the year was cautiously optimistic. Businesses reported weakness in discretionary spending due to heightened price sensitivity among consumers. Manufacturing activity declined slightly while residential construction increased slightly and home sales strengthened across most Districts. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to possible turning points in regional labor markets and for further commentary on businesses’ inflation expectations over the next few months.
• 07:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak in a moderated conversation on the economic outlook and leadership. A Q&A is expected. On May 23, Bostic said that cutting rates too soon “could spur a sort of resurgence, if you will, of economic activity that might be counterproductive to what we’re trying to accomplish. I have really taken that on board… and it might be that we have to be a little more patient and be more certain that inflation is on its way” to the 2 percent target.

Thursday, May 30

• 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 second release (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.3%, last +1.6%); Personal consumption, Q1 second release (GS +2.0%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.5%): We estimate a 0.5pp downward revision to Q1 GDP growth to +1.1% (qoq ar), reflecting downward revisions to personal consumption (-0.5pp to +2.0%) and inventory investment, the former reflecting net negative retail sales revisions as well as softer recreation details in the quarterly census survey (QSS).
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 25 (GS 215k, consensus 218k, last 215k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 18 (consensus 1,795k, last 1,794k)
• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, April (GS -$94.0bn, consensus -$92.0bn, last -$91.8bn)
• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, April preliminary (consensus flat, last -0.4%)
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, April (GS -0.6%, consensus +0.1%, last +3.4%)
• 12:05 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will speak at the Economic Club of New York. Speech text and a Q&A are expected.
• 05:00 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at an event hosted by the Borderplex Alliance in El Paso, TX. A Q&A is expected. On April 5, Logan said “to be clear, the key risk is not that inflation might rise – though monetary policymakers must always remain on guard against that outcome – but rather that inflation will stall out and fail to follow the forecast path all the way back to 2 percent in a timely way.”

Friday, May 31

• 08:30 AM Personal income, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%); Personal consumption, April (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.8%); PCE price index, April (GS +0.27%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (yoy), April (GS +2.68%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.7%); Core PCE price index, April (GS +0.26%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index (yoy), April (GS +2.77%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.8%): We estimate personal income increased 0.2% and personal spending increased 0.25% in April. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose +0.26%, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.77%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.27% from the prior month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.68%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.22% increase in our trimmed core PCE measure (vs. +0.24% in March and +0.24% in February).
• 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, May (GS 41.9, consensus 40.9, last 37.9): We estimate that the Chicago PMI rose by 4pt to 41.9 in May, reflecting the rebound in US and foreign manufacturing activity.
• 06:15 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will give the commencement speech to Augusta Technical College. Speech text is expected.

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA