Despite ugly consumer confidence and soaring mortgage rates, analysts expected a small rebound in housing starts and building permits in May (after April’s disappointing misses). They were wrong… again… as both Starts and Permits plunged MoM (-5.5% MoM and -3.8% MoM respectively)…
Source: Bloomberg
That was the third monthly drop in permits (more forward looking) in a row. Worse still, April Housing Starts were revised lower (from +5.7% to +4.1%), making this miss even worse.
This dragged the SAARs for starts and permits to their lowest since the trough of COVID…
Source: Bloomberg
With Multifamily starts falling back near COVID lockdown lows…
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Single-Family 982K SAAR, down 4.8% from 1,031K and the first sub-million print since October 2023
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Multi-Family 278K, down 13.7% from 322K and the lowest since March’s 245K (which was the lowest print since covid crash)
Source: Bloomberg
And multi-family permits cratering to their lowest since Oct 2018…
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Single-Family permits 949K SAAR, down 2.9% from 977K
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Multi-Family permits 382K SAAR, down 6.1% from 407K
And with rate-cut expectations holding near their lows, there is no sign of recovery in home-building yet…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems reality is starting to set in for homebuilders…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, where the f**k is the Biden administration finding their construction employment data? As housing starts plummet, jobs seem to keep growing to record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Will any rate-cut actually move the dial here?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/20/2024 – 08:43
