Hurricane In December? 50% Formation Odds In Atlantic As Storm Churns

Nearly one week after the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season ended, an incredibly rare tropical disturbance formed over the central subtropical Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center released a tropical weather outlook on Tuesday, explaining the storm has a 50% chance of becoming the 15th named storm of the season over the next two 2-5 days. 

“Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of days,” NHC said. However, it added:

“By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of the system.”

Christianne Pearce, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Tampa Bay office, told Tampa Bay Times the storm doesn’t threaten Florida or the US as it moves northeast into even cooler waters. 

“The probability of having a storm this late in the season is very low because the waters out there are a lot cooler.

“We just have different atmospheric phenomenon happening that kind of put a damper on those things developing,” Pearce said.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and concludes on Nov. 30. Tropical storms and hurricanes forming in December are rare. According to Fox 35 Orlando, data between 1851 to 2017 showed that 2% of tropical storms formed outside “off months” (December to May) of the season. 

Keep an eye on the Atlantic’s tropical region over the next few days. If the storm does form, it will be named “Owen.”