We are sure it’s just a coincidence…
…but on the day that Kamala Harris unveils her price-fixing, vote-buying agenda for economic growth…
…the dollar plunged to 5-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
… and gold soared to a record high, topping $2500 for the first time…
Source: Bloomberg
US equities also soared this week to their best week since 2023, led by a a 5%-plus surge in the Nasdaq (up 12% from last Monday’s lows)…
Nasdaq rallied up to a key technical resistance level – at its 50DMA and the last July high…
Which mirrors the rebound in Mag7 stocks (as they rallied up to the late-July highs, but couldn’t break it)…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were lifted by an ongoing short-squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX was clubbed like a baby seal on the week, extending its largest/fastest retracement ever…
The collapse of implied vol this week leaves a massive discount to the realized vol of the last month…
Source: Bloomberg
Credit markets rallied hard this week, adjust back from “hard landing” to “soft landing” scenarios…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite all the focus on jobless claims, CPI, and retail sales, this week was actually a ‘weak’ one for US macro surprises…
Source: Bloomberg
…and that sparked a hawkish drop in rate-cut expectations – back to pre-payrolls levels (less than 200bps of cuts to end-2025)…
Source: Bloomberg
That prompted weakness at the short-end (+1bps) of the Treasury curve on the week (but the long-end ended 7bps lower on the week). The obvious shift was the bearish rise in yields after CPI…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve flattened significantly on the week, with 2s10s re-inverting…
Source: Bloomberg
Another choppy week for crypto but today saw Bitcoin surge back up to $60,000 as Kamala spoke. to end the week unchanged…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices were flat on the week after some volatile days…
Source: Bloomberg
The other side of the AI-trade – copper – is not buying the euphoria in AI stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
Also worth noting is that the yen carry trade was not fully embraced to lift stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the plunge in the dollar and surge in stocks and gold all took place since Kamala overtook Trump in the prediction markets…
Source: Bloomberg
Coincidence?
Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/16/2024 – 16:00
