It’s delightfully fitting that on the day the entire financial world was holding its breath for Biden’s highly politicized and grossly incompetent Bureau of Labor Statistics to admit it had massively fucked up the jobs data over the past year, that Biden’s highly politicized and grossly incompetent Bureau of Labor Statistics fucked up even more.
At exactly 10am ET this morning, the BLS was supposed to publish its annual CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement revision, an update on how many jobs in the past year were, for lack of a better word, made up (as we reported earlier, it just so happened that the number was 818,000, which was the second biggest annual overestimation of job creation in US history… something that surely was pure coincidence in an election year).
However, 10:01am ET hit… and nothing happened: millions of traders, thousands of economists and countless macrotourists were furiously slamming the F5 key, refreshing the revisions page to see…. nothing change. This went on, and on, and on…. and even though the market actually reacted as if data had been published, it turned out that algos were merely responding to phantom triggers in hopes of triggering momentum ignition up or down. No actual data was reported.
Market reacts to the BLS revision number which hasn’t been published yet
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 21, 2024
As the desperate wait continued, and as seconds turned to minutes, we joked – nearly 30 minutes after the report was originally due – by publishing the phone number for the BLS department responsible for today’s report.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 21, 2024
As it turns out, at least some people had more luck than us in reaching said department (we repeatedly got voicemail with the promise that someone would get back to us in 24-48 hours), because as Bloomberg reports, “at least three banks managed to obtain key payroll numbers Wednesday while the rest of Wall Street was kept waiting for a half-hour by a government delay that whipsawed markets and sowed confusion on trading desks.”
That’s right: while the rest of the world was freaking out, paralyzed by the gross incompetence of the Biden Department of Labor (which, as a reminder, was merely informing us of just how incompetent it truly was by overestimating nearly 1 million jobs in 2024), banks such as Mizuho, BNP Paribas and Nomura all called into the phone number listed above… and got the answer, by some absolute BLS moron who was not aware that they are leaking material, non-public information to extremely sophisticated investors while the rest of the world was stuck in the dark courtesy of, well, other absolute BLS moron who had days if not weeks to prepare today’s report and yet still couldn’t get it out on time… or even 30 minutes after time.
And then, frustration turned to anger and outrage on Wall Street as word spread from trading desk to trading desk that the BLS was releasing the number to some firms over the phone!
When the data was finally released shortly after 10:30 am, it showed payrolls will likely be revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March, the biggest downward revision to the job numbers since 2009.
Stocks initially jumped and bonds gained because the report lent support to speculation that the Fed will start cutting interest rates next month, then quickly reversed as panic seemed to sweep over Wall Street at the thought that the BIden admin had been actively covering up a labor market recession. In the end, hopium won out and stocks closed near the highs of the day, because – well – Powell will always make sure stocks keeps rising.
“I don’t wonder that people are upset,” Nancy Tengler, the chief executive officer of Laffer Tengler Investments. “The whole thing reeks of incompetence.”
Well, yeah, but what makes it especially hilarious is that the incompetence came on the day the BLS was admitting 12 months of prior propaganda incompetence. Seriously, not even the USSR had fuck ups of this caliber.
The delay – and subsequent one-by-one disclosure – is the latest in a series of embarrassing mishaps to roil Labor Department data releases, which hilarious is who the markets have to rely on for “accurate” data on the state of the US labor market and the trajectory of inflation and the economy.
In a post on X, the agency said it was “looking into the reason for the delay”…
We are aware there was a delay to the CES preliminary benchmark announcement. We are looking into the reason for the delay. We have no additional information to share regarding the delay at this time. https://t.co/nXPlwtZZa7
— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) August 21, 2024
… to which we responded that when the idiots responsible for this latest fuck up are fired, the BLS should make sure to seasonally adjust it so it adds at least another 1 million government jobs.
As Bloomberg reminds us, the government’s economic data reports were once released under tightly controlled embargos to accredited news agencies, including Bloomberg. But the practice was abandoned during the pandemic, when departments across the government shifted to just releasing the data on the Internet to everyone at once. Officials said that method would better protect the security of market-moving data, but instead all it did was create groups of wealthy “super users” who had preferential and early access to government data from Biden’s corrupt agency.
When it didn’t come out on time, Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior US economist BNP Paribas, said she kept refreshing the web page, waiting for the numbers. Then “we called the public line a couple times and they gave us the number,” she said.
Steven Ricchiuto, chief US economist at Mizuho, did the same. “Knowing the data was delayed we had to call for the number before it showed up on their website,” he said.
ZeroHedge itself received the leaked data at 10:24am ET through our expert network, but not even we dared to publish it to our premium subscribers amid concerns that the BLS could not possibly be this stupid and incompetent to be releasing the number on a case by case basis instead of blasting it to the entire world at the same time.
In the end, it turned out the BLS was even more incompetent than we could possibly imagine.
“I am more than a little annoyed,” said Troy Ludtka, senior US economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Americas, who was among those who waited on the public release.
“To put it in the most generous terms: Government agencies absolutely cannot be selectively releasing critical, market-moving information to some agents and broker dealers first via telephone while keeping others in the dark,” he said. “This is anathema to the very idea of a balanced market built on fair, accessible information.”
Troy, but you ain’t seen nothing yet: if Kamala wins and if the US goes full Kam-unist, the very idea of a balanced market will be anathema, replaced by centrally planned… well, everything.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/21/2024 – 19:40
