Update(1808ET): It appears the pro-Iranian Iraqi paramilitary factions are going on the offensive in response to the Friday assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.
“At least two Katyusha rockets were fired at a military base hosting U.S. forces near Baghdad International Airport, two Iraqi military officials told Reuters early on Tuesday.”
Air defenses at the base have reportedly intercepted the rockets. The location has come under attack several times before. This weekend saw large protests outside of the US Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone and clashes with local police, as largely Shia demonstrators tried to access the embassy compound.
Iraq
Alarms at the Victoria base at the airport.
Recall that the Americans announced earlier that they would respond to any attack on their bases by the resistance pic.twitter.com/lI9mZ6S5D0
— Alex Kennedy (@therealmindman) September 30, 2024
* * *
Update(1143ET): There are several breaking reports that Israel’s military (IDF) is preparing to launch a “limited” ground invasion of South Lebanon. Fox Pentagon correspondent Liz Friden writes:
Israel will launch a “limited” ground incursion into South Lebanon. Incursion is imminent. Will be smaller in scale than in 2006 and last a shorter period of time.
The White House has since announced that President Biden opposes an Israeli ground operation. He is still calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon, after saying he supported the Nasrallah assassination in the name of “justice” for past attacks on Americans.
Biden in fresh remarks issued somewhat weak and meager statements opposing the imminent ground op…
President Biden on #Israel on a question about #Israel planning an imminent ground operation in #Lebanon: “I am more aware than you might know, and I’m comfortable with them stopping. We should have a ceasefire now” pic.twitter.com/tfxtcHobWL
— Middle East and North Africa Breaking News (@MENA_BRKNews) September 30, 2024
The new ground op was first signaled Monbday by Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant, who said the “next phase of the war against Hezbollah will begin soon.” The IDF has been amassing troops near the Lebanese border for several days now.
Gallant said while visiting the north and as reported by the Times of Israel: “The next stage in the war against Hezbollah will begin soon … We will do this. And as I said here a month ago [that] we will shift the center of gravity [to the north], this is what I say now: We will change the situation and return the residents home.”
Israel expanded attacks into central Beirut on Monday, killing three senior members of the leftist group Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). Aerial forces also struck the Lebanese town of Ain Deleb. The country’s health ministry says at least 45 people were killed.
And another first of the conflict:
Hezbollah said in a statement that it fired a “Nour missile” at Israel, which sources familiar with the Lebanese militant group told Reuters is a ballistic missile.
The missile hit the village of Kafr Giladi in northern Israel, the statement said, adding that it had fired it in response to “Israeli violations of cities, villages, and civilians.”
* * *
In a defiant speech, Hezbollah’s #2 who survived Friday’s Israeli decapitation strikes of the group’s leadership which killed Hassan Nasrallah, vowed that the Iran-backed group is ‘ready’ to take on any potential Israeli ground offensive into Lebanon.
Deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem on Monday insisted Hezbollah will continue to fight despite the huge series of blows which began with the pager explosions. “We are quite ready, if the Israelis want a ground incursion, the resistance forces are ready for that,” Qassem declared.
He told the Lebanese people to be “reassured, victory is our ally, we need a bit of patience” and claimed that “Israel was not able to affect our (military) capabilities.”
“Israel is committing massacres in all areas of Lebanon until there is no house left without traces of Israeli aggression in it,” he continued. “Israel attacks civilians, ambulances, children and the elderly. It does not fight fighters, but rather commits massacres.”
At one point in the speech he called out the United States for shipping billions in weaponry to Israel, and for providing intelligence and other support. He called Washington “a partner with Israel, through unlimited military support – culturally, politically, financially.” The Biden administration had quickly tried to say it had no prior awareness that Israel was about to assassinate Secretary-General Nasrallah and his top leadership on Friday.
Qassem stressed, “We will win, just as we won in our confrontation with Israel in 2006.” But he indirectly acknowledged the group’s mounting losses, saying, “There are deputy commanders and there are replacements in case a commander is wounded in any post.”
He also hinted at something high on everyone’s mind, including Israel’s: the question of a successor to Nasrallah. As related by Al Jazeera:
He added that Hezbollah will install a new leadership soon via “internal mechanisms”. The choice of new leadership is clear, Qassem continued, without offering further details.
He said a new chief will be chosen “at the earliest opportunity.” Nasrallah had long been an easily recognized figure even on an international front, gaining the respect of both the Arab world and across the religious divide. At times, even Christians and Sunnis and secular leaders in the region would praise his ‘resistance’ to Israel and ability to command tens of thousands of effective fighters.
Who might be next?
Does this mark the moment of the baton of command of the Lebanese resistance movement #Hizbullah passing to its new leader Sayyed Hashem Safiuddin? pic.twitter.com/bb0uhFLQcS
— tim anderson (@timand2037) September 29, 2024
Much media speculation has focused on Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah and one who even resembles him in appearance. However, he’s said to be even more hardline. According to one profile of the potential successor:
Hashem Safieddine, a potential successor to his slain cousin Hassan Nasrallah, is one of Hezbollah’s most prominent figures and has deep religious and family ties to the Shiite Muslim movement’s patron Iran.
Safieddine bears a striking resemblance to his charismatic maternal cousin Nasrallah but is several years his junior, aged in his late 50s or early 60s.
A source close to Hezbollah, requesting anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media, said the grey-bearded, bespectacled Safieddine was the “most likely” candidate for party’s top job.
The United States has had him on its list of “designated terrorists” since 2017, given his leadership within Hezbollah via the group’s decision-making Shura Council, as well as close ties to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
While Hezbollah sources are currently denying that he’s yet been chosen, Reuters and others have been digging into his background. “Safieddine’s family ties and a physical resemblance to Nasrallah, as well as his religious status as a descendant of Mohammed, would all count in his favor,” Reuters wrote.
A number of Israeli media sources have labeled him as more extreme than Nasrallah.
Yedioth Ahronoth quoting a senior Israeli military official:
“Hashem Safieddine is more extreme than Nasrallah and apparently has already begun to control the party” pic.twitter.com/nw2cK4LwmF
— SilencedSirs◼️ (@SilentlySirs) September 30, 2024
According to more from his background and closeness to Nasrallah:
Nasrallah’s younger cousin was born in the southern Lebanese village of Deir Qanoun En Nahr near Tyre in 1960. The young men studied theology together at two Shia institutions – one in Najaf, Iraq and the other in Qom, Iran.
They are seen from their supporters to be from a well-respected Shia family that has produced both religious scholars and Lebanese politicians.
Safieddine’s brother is Hezbollah’s representative to Iran, while his son is married to the daughter of Qassem Soleimani – the Iranian general killed in a US drone strike during Donald Trump’s presidency in 2020.
Back in 2017, he stated of the Trump administration: “This mentally impeded, crazy US administration headed by [Donald] Trump will not be able to harm the resistance.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/30/2024 – 17:59
