US natural gas futures are up 2.5% in late afternoon trading, reaching $2.98 per mmBtu, driven by new forecasts showing a shift in cold weather from the West Coast to the East next week. This suggests households may crank up their thermostats for the first time this season as a proper chill sets in.
Private weather forecaster BAMWX published a new mid-day GEFS run for late November that shows “massive cold trends” for the eastern half of the US.
“The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead,” BAMWX wrote on X, adding, “Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential.”
Massive colder trends on the mid-day GEFS run for late November. The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead.
Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential. #Energy #NatGas #OOTT $ng $ung pic.twitter.com/UpJ5pT44t8
— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) November 13, 2024
Meteorologist Ryan Kane wrote on X, “It’s safe to say next weeks ULL will be the big pattern changing system (Nov 20-23rd). Nice -EPO, +PNA & -NAO will all work to drive cold into the eastern half of CONUS.”
“Snow potential should come Thanksgiving week as the -NAO attempts to break down as the cold air is established,” Kane noted.
It’s safe to say next weeks ULL will be the big pattern changing system (Nov 20-23rd). Nice -EPO, +PNA & -NAO will all work to drive cold into the eastern half of CONUS. Snow potential should come thanksgiving week as the -NAO attempts to break down as the cold air is established pic.twitter.com/thWrHJDSZZ
— Ryan Kane (@ryankanerWX) November 13, 2024
BAMWX said the pattern shift to much cooler temps in the interior Northeast could produce ripe conditions for snow next week.
❄SNOW CHANCES ARRIVING AROUND THANKSGIVING?
For several days now, we’ve been mentioning the pattern changing with cooler temperatures arriving for the end of November/start of December.
With the cooler temperatures, comes the possibility of winter precipitation👀
Now… snow… pic.twitter.com/ZPQEy24iqB
— Kirk 🇺🇸 Hinz | BAM ⚡️Weather (@Met_khinz) November 12, 2024
Here’s what other meteorologists are saying…
Euro Ens (upgraded) showing a strong signal for wintery mischief here in the Mid Atlantic going into Thanksgiving week. 👇 It even has a little snow in the Baltimore Metro. Take that with a grain of rock salt, but all of the long-range modeling is seeing the cold air. Stay tuned pic.twitter.com/pwvsoKiJs7
— Tony Pann (@TonyPannWBAL) November 13, 2024
eye candy euro control with Thanksgiving week snowstorm in interior east pic.twitter.com/VYm3V0Vn6Q
— The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) November 8, 2024
Back to NatGas fundamentals, here’s the latest data (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Weather:
Forecasts shifted cooler for parts of the West Coast with colder temperatures moving eastward later in the Nov. 18-22 period: Maxar
See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA * Click here for two-week temperature forecasts for the US
Storage:
Gas inventories probably rose 39 bcf last week, based on median of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg
Five-year average gas inventory change for week ended Nov. 8 is +29 bcf
Stockpiles totaled 3.932 tcf as of Nov. 1, 5.8% above the five-year average
EIA to report weekly storage data at 10:30am New York time on Thursday
Daily BNEF Gas Data:
Lower-48 dry gas production on Wednesday ~100.4 bcf/day, or -5.2% y/y
Lower-48 total gas demand ~81.7 bcf/day, or -3.1% y/y
Dry gas exports to Mexico ~6.5 bcf/day, or -2% w/w
Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals ~13.7 bcf/day, or +1.5% w/w
Maybe a cold blast in the Northeast and other parts of the US will be the catalyst to push NatGas futures past the $3 mark, which has served as strong resistance for nearly two years.
In mid-August, the 208th edition of the Farmers’ Almanac published the “Wet Winter Whirlwind.” It noted, “There will be a lot of precipitation and storms”—all dependent on location.”
And this: NatGas Bulls Rejoice: Colder Winter Lower 48 Forecasts May “Place Upward Pressure” On Prices
Tyler Durden
Wed, 11/13/2024 – 17:20
