Future Rise As Nvidia Reverses Premarket Losses Despite Russian ICBM Launch

US equity futures reversed earlier losses and are now trading higher despite disappointing guidance from NVDA’s earnings after the market close which led to some pressure in equities this morning. As of 8:00am S&P futures are are up 0.2%, erasing an earlier loss of 0.4%, as traders weighed a lackluster forecast from Nvidia against Snowflake’s 20% premarket surge, which also lifted its peers. Nasdaq futures were up 0.1% with Nvidia erasing its earlier loss of as much as 3.2% after its 4Q forecast fell short of the most optimistic expectations, and even rising 1%. With Bitcoin rising as high as $98,000 MicroStrategy rallied as much as 11% in early hours trading. Bond yields are 2-3bp lower this morning and the USD is unchanged. Fears the Russia-Ukraine war is escalating helped lift oil and gold prices, while European natural gas futures hit the highest in a year. Ukraine reported that Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile during an overnight attack, while a Kremlin spokesman called Kyiv’s earlier use of UK Storm Shadow missiles a new escalation. Gold was flat and base metals are largely unchanged. Meanwhile, Trump’s search for a Treasury secretary remains in flux, with no candidate having emerged as the clear favorite. Today, key macro data focus will be Leading Index, Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales

In premarket trading, the world’s biggest company Nvidia dropped 1%, erasing an earlier loss as much as 3%, after the company assured investors that its new product lineup can maintain the company’s artificial intelligence-fueled growth run, though the rush to get the chips out the door is proving more costly than expected. Softward company Snowflake gained 22% after the company gave a better-than-expected sales outlook, suggesting newly launched products are receiving a strong reception from customers. Here are some other notable movers:

• MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, rallied as much as 11%. The stock is extending gains after it announced an almost 50% increase in planned sales of convertible senior notes, to $2.6 billion, to fund purchases of more Bitcoin.
• Baidu ADRs (BIDU) falls about 2% after reporting a 3% sales decline in 3Q, citing weakness in online marketing amid a sluggish Chinese economy.
• BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) rises 7% after the warehouse-club operator increased some of its annual projections. Management announced the company’s first membership fee increase in seven years.
• Dream Finders Homes (DFH) climbs 8% amid news the company will replace Haynes International in the S&P SmallCap 600 prior to the open on Nov. 25.
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) declines about 2% after posting quarterly results. Raymond James said newly-adopted metrics were above expectations, though traditional metrics measuring activity such as billings and collecting cash saw a meaningful decline.

Traders will be watching US initial jobless claims later Thursday for signs on the strength of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. An expected decision on President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary is also in focus.

“Trump’s win has brought with it an increase in geopolitical uncertainty and that too is weighing on sentiment,” said Daniel Murray, Zurich-based chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management in Switzerland. “Ukraine now has an incentive to gain as much strategic advantage as possible ahead of Trump’s inauguration.”

On Wednesday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said more rate cuts are needed, but policymakers should proceed carefully to avoid moving too quickly or too slowly. Swaps market pricing indicated a chance of around 50% that the Fed will cut rates again in December.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 was flat, erasing an earlier loss of 0.6%, as  investors sentiment was dampened by fears of an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and a disappointing revenue forecast from Nvidia. Autos and consumer stocks are the biggest laggards, while insurance is the only sector in the green. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Soitec surges as much as 21% as the semiconductor wafer maker’s reiterated full-year revenue and Ebitda outlook for 2025 brings reassurance.
• Jet2 shares surge as much as 12%, the biggest jump in two years, after the travel firm reported strong first-half earnings, including a pretax profit beat.
• MFE shares rise as much as 11% in Milan trading after the media company reported an increase in Ebit for the nine-month period and said it expects a growth in advertising revenues for the full year.
• Halma gains as much as 10%, the most in more than five months, after the health and safety sensor technology group released its first-half results.
• Ithaca Energy shares rise as much as 10% as the firm posted its first set of results since completing the acquisition of Eni’s UK upsteam assets.
• Zurich Insurance shares rise as much as 2.3% after the insurer outlined upbeat new targets for the next three years that came in above current expectations.
• Novartis shares rise as much as 0.8% after the Swiss pharmaceuticals giant company lifted its sales guidance, citing upbeat expectations for new medicines.
• JD Sports shares slide as much as 17% after the sports retailer issued a third-quarter sales update.
• CMC Markets shares slide as much as 14% after in-line first-half results weren’t sufficient to sustain strong gains in the lead up to the earnings.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, heading for back-to-back losses, as some of the region’s tech heavyweights slid following Nvidia’s lackluster revenue forecast. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, with TSMC and Sony Group among the biggest drags. Indian benchmarks underperformed as Adani Group units’ shares tumbled after US prosecutors charged Gautam Adani with helping to drive a $250 million bribery scheme. Adani’s units were among the worst performers on MSCI’s Asian equity gauge, with flagship unit Adani Enterprises Ltd. down as much as 23%. Sentiment has been week this month as investors brace for Donald Trump’s second presidency and the potential for higher tariffs, particularly on China. The dollar’s recent strength and concerns that the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in easing also have sapped demand for Asian assets. MSCI’s regional benchmark is down more than 7% from its late September peak.

In FX, the dollar gained and the Japanese yen outperformed G10 peers on haven demand after Ukraine said Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, ratcheting up geopolitical tensions. The USD/JPY fell as much as 0.9% to 154.09 after BOJ Governor Ueda earlier reiterated that he’s closely watching currency impacts on the economy and inflation, though said it’s not possible to predict the outcome of the central bank’s policy meeting. “Direction of travel remains skewed to the downside as Fed, BOJ’s policy normalization takes different form,” Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore, said of dollar-yen moves. “Risk to this view is a case of slowing BOJ policy normalization and/or Fed in no hurry to cut, alongside Trump policy uncertainties.”

In rates, treasuries are slightly richer on the day across front-end and belly of the curve, but TSY futures are off session highs as WTI crude oil futures rise more than 2%. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets with the bid in Treasuries pushing US 10-year yields as much as 3 bps lower to 4.38%, with bunds and gilts also gaining, after Ukraine said Russia launched a intercontinental ballistic missile. At 8:00am ET, rates were ~1bp lower across the front-end with 10-year little changed near 4.40%, outperforming comparable bunds and gilts by around 1bp; curve spreads are little changed. US session includes weekly jobless claims data, four scheduled Fed speakers and an auction of 10-year TIPS. The TIPS auction at 1pm New York time, a $17b second reopening of the July new issue, is the final coupon sale this week; next week’s auctions, to be confirmed at 11am, are anticipated to span Monday to Wednesday ahead of US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday

In commodities, oil prices gained with WTI up 1.6% to $69.80 a barrel. European natural gas prices also jump. Spot gold climbed $18 to $2,668/oz.

Bitcoin topped $98,000 for the first time on optimism Trump’s support for crypto heralds a boom for the industry as the US pivots to friendly regulations in place of a crackdown. Trump’s transition team has begun to hold discussions over whether to create a White House post dedicated to digital-asset policy.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes November Philadelphia Fed business outlook and jobless claims (8:30am), October Leading index and existing homes sales (10am) and November Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:45am, 12:30pm), Goolsbee (12:25pm), Schmid (12:40pm) and Barr (4:40pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 5,910.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 497.80
• MXAP down 0.3% to 182.15
• MXAPJ down 0.6% to 577.43
• Nikkei down 0.9% to 38,026.17
• Topix down 0.6% to 2,682.81
• Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 19,601.11
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,370.40
• Sensex down 0.6% to 77,127.48
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 8,322.96
• Kospi little changed at 2,480.63
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.33%
• Euro down 0.3% to $1.0514
• Brent Futures up 1.1% to $73.61/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,666.61
• US Dollar Index little changed at 106.73

Top Overnight News

• Chinese government advisers are recommending that Beijing should maintain an economic growth target of around 5.0% for next year, pushing for stronger fiscal stimulus to mitigate the impact of expected U.S. tariff hikes on the country’s exports. Reuters
• Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba is set to unveil a $140 billion stimulus package to address challenges from inflation to wage growth, following his election promises to alleviate a cost-of-living crunch. BBG
• According to Ukraine’s Air Force Command, Russia hit Ukraine with an ICBM for the first time since Putin launched his war nearly 1000 days ago. BBG
• Ukraine is getting more help from Joe Biden. His administration told Congress it plans to cancel $4.65 billion in debt owed by the country, the latest in a series of moves meant to bolster support for Kyiv before Donald Trump takes office. BBG
• US officials are meeting with Netanyahu on Thursday as the White House pushes hard for a Lebanon ceasefire. FT
• Richmond Fed President Barkin said he anticipates US inflation will continue cooling, even though progress has plateaued somewhat of late. FT
• Donald Trump has not yet been fully sold on his top 3 Treasury Secretary Candidates (Warsh, Rowan, or Bessent) as he struggles to find someone both emphatically supportive of tariffs and who would be welcomed by markets. BBG
• Marty Makary is reportedly seen as the leading candidate for US President-elect Trump’s FDA nomination: BBG
• US ETFs investing in Bitcoin surpassed $100 billion in total assets, fueled by optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s plans to foster the growth of the crypto industry. BBG
• The Justice Department on Wednesday said Google should have to sell off its popular Chrome browser as part of a court-ordered fix to its monopolization of the online search market. WSJ
• Fed’s Barkin (2024 Voter) says “Fed should not pre-emptively adjust monetary policy ahead of possible changes in economic policy; US is more vulnerable to inflation shocks”, via FT. “Forthcoming rate decision would depend on data.”. “If you got inflation staying above out target, that makes the case to be more careful about reducing rates. If you got unemployment accelerating, that makes the case to be more forward-leaning.”
• Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said some additional rate cuts are needed as policy is still restrictive but she doesn’t want to cut rates too quickly and warned that overly slow rate cuts could hurt the labour market. Collins also stated that the final destination of rate cuts is unclear and monetary policy is well positioned for the economic outlook, while she added monetary policy is not on a preset course and Fed policy decisions will be made meeting-by-meeting.
• Fed’s Williams (voter) says sees inflation is cooling and interest rates falling further, adds 2% is the rate that can best balance the central bank’s employment and price stability goals, according to Barron’s

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the indecisive lead from the US where geopolitics and Nvidia earnings were in the spotlight. ASX 200 lacked firm direction amid weakness in the consumer-related sectors and after Westpac pushed back its forecast for when the RBA will begin cutting rates to May next year from a prior forecast of February. Nikkei 225 underperformed and tested the 38,000 level to the downside as the Japanese currency nursed some of its recent losses and despite a report that Japan is planning an economic package of around JPY 21.9tln. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were uninspired as participants digested recent earnings releases although support was seen in automakers after a MOFCOM official said they are planning the continuation of car trade-in incentives for next year to stabilise market expectations.

Top Asian News

• Four Chinese government advisers advocate for a 2025 growth target of around 5% which is similar to this year, while one adviser presses for a growth target of above 4% and another recommends a 4.5%-5% range, while advisers suggested a higher budget deficit could mitigate the impact of expected US tariffs, according to Reuters.
• China MOFCOM official said they are planning the continuation of car trade-in incentives for next year to stabilise market expectations.
• Chinese banks are seen cutting lending rates in 2025 but may leave lending rates unchanged next month, according to analysts cited by China Securities Journal.
• Japan reportedly plans an economic package of around JPY 21.9tln, according to NHK. It was later reported that Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki said the LDP-led coalition is introducing measures to reflect DPP requests as much as possible.
• Baidu (9888 HK) Q3 (CNY) adj. EPS 16.6 (prev. 20.4), Revenue 33.65bln (exp. 33.3bln)

European bourses began the session on a mixed footing, but gradually teetered lower soon after the cash open. A further extension of the downside was seen following updates via the Kremlin’s spokesperson who noted that the storm shadow attack at Russia is a new escalation, via TASS. Thereafter, ABC News reported that it is not confirmed that Russia used a ICBM last night, which helped to lift bourses incrementally off lows. European sectors opened with a slight positive bias, before sentiment soured to show a strong negative bias in Europe. Insurance manages to stay in mild positive territory, largely attributed to gains in Zurich Insurance after the co. announced their 2025-27 targets. Autos are Europe’s worst sector, joined closely by Consumer Products; seemingly weighed on by the defensive bias. US equity futures are modestly lower across the board, and with slight underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ after NVIDIA reported its Q3 results; the Co. is down 3.4% in pre-market trade, despite reporting strong headline metrics, but its Q4 guidance ultimately disappointed on the top-end of analyst expectations. NVIDIA (NVDA) – Shares -3% in pre-market trade; despite top- and bottom line beats, some analysts were seeking firmer guidance for Q4, and were disappointed by slowing growth rates, while some also continue to cite production concerns. Nvidia reported Q3 adj. EPS 0.81 (exp. 0.75), Q3 revenue USD 35.08bln (exp. 33.12bln). Q3 adj. gross margin 75% (exp. 75%), Q3 adj. operating expenses USD 3.05bln (exp. 2.99bln), Q3 adj. operating income 23.28bln (exp. 21.9bln). Exec said Blackwell production continue to ramp into fiscal 2026. Ahead, it sees Q4 revenue at around USD 37.5bln+/- 2% (exp. 37.1bln), and sees Q4 adj. gross margins between 73-74% (exp. 73.5%).

Top European News

• ECB’s Villeroy said inflation could sustainably be at 2% in early 2025 and the economy remains resilient, while stated that victory against inflation is in sight in Europe but added the balance of risks on growth and inflation is shifting to the downside. Villeroy said it is possible that US tariffs are not expected to alter significantly the inflation outlook in Europe and the degree of monetary policy restriction should continue to be reduced in which the pace must be determined by agile pragmatism, with full optionality maintained for upcoming meetings.
• ECB’s Stournaras says “25bps December rate cut is the right response; should cut every meeting until we reach 2%; neutral rate on average is about 2%”, via Bloomberg TV.
• Bundesbank says a significant number of German corporate insolvencies are likely next year with corporate default risk to remain elevated

FX

• DXY is higher but with the USD showing a mixed performance vs. peers. Fresh macro drivers for the US remain light and as such, risk sentiment may carry sway for the Greenback. Today’s US slate sees US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, US Existing Home Sales, Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee & Barr. DXY has been as high as 106.74 but has stopped shy of Wednesday’s 106.91 peak.
• EUR on the backfoot vs. the USD with some modest weakness triggered by geopolitical angst surrounding Russia-Ukraine. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.0515 but is holding above yesterday’s 1.0506 floor.
• JPY is firmer vs. the USD in what has been a choppy week for USD/JPY. Fresh macro drivers for the US and Japan have been lacking with JPY instead gaining impetus from some of the risk-aversion triggered by tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
• GBP on the backfoot vs. the USD and extending downside after yesterday’s failure to hold above the 1.27 mark post-UK CPI. Fresh macro drivers for the GBP are light and the currency is flat vs. the EUR. Today’s docket sees another appearance from BoE’s Mann. Cable’s low for the session is at 1.2624.
• Mildly diverging fortunes for Antipodeans with the AUD faring better than the Kiwi. AUD/USD has managed to hold above the 0.65 mark after yesterday’s session of losses. NZD/USD has extended on yesterday’s selling and slid further on a 0.58 handle.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1934 vs exp. 7.2482 (prev. 7.1935).

Fixed Income

• A contained start for USTs with fresh drivers somewhat light after the 20yr auction on Wednesday (which was weak) and as we await the latest weekly jobs data before the latest wave of Fed speakers. USTs have remained in a narrow 109-20+ to 109-25+ parameters; the high of which printed most recently as Russia described Ukraine’s use of storm shadow missiles as a “new escalation”.
• Bunds are firmer on the session and at highs given the latest geopolitical updates and specifically commentary from the Russian Kremlin on storm shadow. At a 132.52 peak, having comfortably reclaimed the 132.00 handle after languishing just below the mark throughout much of the APAC session. The morning has seen supply from Spain and France, which was somewhat tepid vs recent outings for Spain, though not sufficiently so to spark any reaction, and France thereafter was well received.
• Gilts are bid in tandem with peers but also as the benchmark rebounds from Wednesday’s CPI-induced pressures. However, the odds of a December BoE cut remain stuck at around the 15% mark. Action which has taken Gilts back above the 94.00 handle, surpassing Wednesday’s 93.81 best.
• France sells EUR 11bln vs exp. EUR 9-11bln 2.50% 2027, 0.75% 2028, 2.75% 2030, 0.00% 2030 OAT Auction.
• Spain sells EUR 4.25bln vs exp. EUR 4-5bln 3.10% 2031, 4.20% 2037 Bono & 1.00% 2042 Green Bono.
• UK sells GBP 2bln 0.125% 2026 Gilt via tender: b/c 4.31x and average yield 3.996%.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are firmer on the session, benefitting from the tense geopolitical backdrop as updates out of Russia continue to weigh on general risk sentiment. Benchmarks posting gains of just under USD 1/bbl on the session and in proximity to respective highs of USD 69.84/bbl and USD 73.87/bbl.
• Dutch TTF printed a fresh YTD high of EUR 48.15/MW, benefitting from the above with magnitudes more pronounced than in the crude space. The next point of resistance comes into play at EUR 49.81/MWh from early-December 2023.
• Spot gold is firmer, benefitting from the tense geopolitical environment and the generally soft risk tone on this and after NVIDIA’s results. Action which has seen havens generally benefit across the board with the DXY, JPY and fixed income bid.
• Base metals struggled for direction overnight, but have since slipped into mostly negative territory given the dip in risk sentiment owing to geopolitical updates out of Russia/Ukraine.
• US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly planning to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline, according to POLITICO.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel conducted raids on southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israeli air strikes on several houses in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip killed and wounded dozens, according to medics.
• US Senate blocked measures that would have halted sales of tank rounds and joint direct attack munitions to Israel.
• Israel’s Channel 14 quoting an Israeli political official reports “It is likely that no agreement with Lebanon will be announced during Hochstein’s visit to Israel” but there is optimism that an agreement to end the war could be reached within a week.

Russia-Ukraine

• Western Official tells CNN news that Russia did not use an ICBM last night, Ukraine air force said it was a ballistic missile and declined to characterise it further. Ukraine air force declined to comment, saying the impact was still being assessed. Prior to this, Ukrainian media Ukrainska Pravda say a RS-26 ballistic missile was used to hit Dnipro. The original report was via Ukraine’s Airforce which announced Russia launched intercontinental ballistic missiles from the Astrakhan region in the morning.
• Ukraine’s airforce announces ballistic missile attack alert, via Bloomberg; explosions heard in Ukraine’s Kryvyi Rih, via RBC Ukraine.
• Kremlin Spokesperson says storm shadow attack on Russia is a new escalation, according to TASS.
• Russia’s Foreign Ministry says Russia is open to talks on Ukraine, ready to look at realistic initiatives.
• Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, on the US missile base in Poland, says this results in an increase to the overall level of nuclear danger. The base has long been a priority target, which can be hit with “Russian new weapons”. Adds, Russia is open to talks on Ukraine, ready to look at realistic initiatives.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 217,000
  • Nov. Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.87m
• 08:30: Nov. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 8.0, prior 10.3
• 10:00: Oct. Leading Index, est. -0.3%, prior -0.5%
• 10:00: Oct. Existing Home Sales est. 3.95m, prior 3.84m
  • Oct. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 2.9%, prior -1.0%
• 11:00: Nov. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -5, prior -4

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Nvidia’s results overnight drew a tepid reaction despite a solid Q3 beat by the world’s most valuable company as its guidance failed to match some of the loftiest expectations. Q3 sales came in at $35.1bn (vs $33.2bn est.) and the earnings surprise the strongest in three quarters. However, the Q4 sales guidance at $37.5bn, was “only” a touch above the average analyst estimate of $37.1bn. The company’s earnings call talked of “very strong” demand for its new Blackwell chips that will begin to ship this quarter, but overall it was deemed to be a slightly underwhelming outcome with Nvidia’s shares down -2.5% in post-market trading. Of course, this has be to put in perspective of the stock’s +195% rally YTD.

Off the back of this, S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are trading -0.16% and -0.25% lower as I type which overall means this potential high-volatility event has broadly passed without major incident. However, it has dampened sentiment a touch in Asia with the Nikkei (-0.65%) is leading losses with the Hang Seng (-0.14%) also lower. As I type, Chinese equities are reversing losses though with the Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) joining the KOSPI (+0.35%) higher. Also higher is Bitcoin (+3.40%) as it shows no signs of slowing, advancing for a fourth consecutive session, and trading at $97,670 as I type.

Ahead of Nvidia’s results, markets had managed to mostly shake off the negative mood that had dominated the session, with the S&P 500 ending the session flat (+0.002% to be precise) with more than 60% of its constituents higher on the day. The index had traded in the red almost all of the day, having been down nearly -1% early in the session as several concerns weighed on sentiment. Matters weren’t helped by a very weak earnings release from Target (-21.97%), which was the worst performer in the entire index after they cut the earnings outlook. The Magnificent 7 (-0.54%) also dragged on the broader market, with an uptick in volatility seeing the VIX Index (+0.81pts to 17.16pts) rise to its highest closing level since the US election. And there were modest declines in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (-0.02%) fell narrowly back to a fresh 3-month low, while the DAX (-0.29%), CAC (-0.43%) and FTSE 100 (-0.17%) saw slightly larger declines.

The earlier negative market driver was fears of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The geopolitical risk-off tone saw gold (+0.70%) post a third consecutive increase, while the dollar index rose +0.41%. Another related market theme was a notable rise in near-term inflation expectations, with the US 2yr inflation swap up +5.1bps to 2.72%. That’s its highest level since March 2023, right before SVB’s collapse, and it shows how investors have adjusted their expectations relative to early September, when it fell beneath 2%.

With inflation expectations moving higher, markets continued to pair back near-term Fed rate cut expectations, with the market odds of a December rate cut falling to 52% from 59% the previous day. The 13bps of easing now priced for the December meeting is the lowest that it’s been since April. This came as Fed officials continued to strike a patient tone. Fed Governor Bowman said she “would prefer to proceed cautiously” with further easing and Boston Fed’s Collins said that while “some additional policy easing is needed”, the cuts delivered so far “enable the FOMC to be careful and deliberate going forward”.

Global bonds mostly sold off yesterday, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +3.5bps to 4.32%, whilst the 10yr yield was +1.5bps higher at 4.41%. The Treasury sell-off was reinforced by a weak 20yr auction that saw bonds issued 3bps above the pre-sale yield. European yields also saw similar moves, with those on 10yr bunds (+1.3bps), OATs (+2.9bps) and BTPs (+2.8bps) all rising. Meanwhile in the UK, 10yr gilts (+2.7bps) sold off after the latest CPI print was above expectations in October. For example, headline CPI rose to a six-month high of +2.3% (vs. +2.2% expected), whilst core CPI was up to +3.3% (vs. +3.1% expected). So that led investors to dial back their expectations for rate cuts from the BoE, with the likelihood of another cut by February down to 78% now.

Over in the US, there was still no sign of who Donald Trump would appoint as his new Treasury Secretary. The four names widely reported to be in the frame include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, Apollo CEO Marc Rowan, hedge fund manager Scott Bessent and Senator Bill Hagerty. Bloomberg reported that Trump was scheduled to hold interviews yesterday with Warsh and Rowan, and that Hagerty had spent much of the day with Trump on Tuesday.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for October, and the Conference Board’s leading index for October. In the Euro Area, we’ll also get the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for November. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee and Barr, the ECB’s Knot, Holzmann, Cipollone, Escriva, Patsalides, Elderson, Lane, Kazimir, Vujcic, and the BoE’s Mann.