US Officials Say Russia Didn’t Fire ICBM At Ukraine, But A ‘New’ Intermediate-Range Missile

Update(1057ET): Ukraine’s earlier claim that its territory had been struck by an intercontinental ballistic missile fired by Russia is being hotly disputed, hours after widespread reports first appeared. US officials are saying it appears to be a new intermediate-range ballistic missile and not an ICBM which targeted the central city of Dnipro

The NY Times has reported in follow-up of the attack that “several Western officials said that the weapon was not an ICBM and instead was likely an intermediate-range missile that flies shorter distances.”

Zelensky himself had claimed Russia used a new class of missile. “All the parameters — speed, altitude — match those of an intercontinental ballistic missile,” he said. “All expert evaluations are underway.” But US defense officials are contradicting this:

A senior U.S. official said the weapon appeared to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile, adding, “But it is a new type we have been tracking.”

US officials have also called it an “experimental” missile. There’s also been some quibbling among experts are how to characterize the projectiles which were observed hitting Ukraine at incredibly high rates of speed, in terms of rocket size and distance.

Assuming Washington is correct, and that it wasn’t an ICBM, this suggests Zelensky’s hasty verdict is all about threat inflation coming at a time he’s desperately trying to get the West’s attention, arguing in favor of greater NATO military intervention against Russia.

* * *

Ukraine’s Air Force Command says that Russia has, for the first time in the multi-year war, launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This unprecedented escalation follows Ukraine’s recent use of US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and British Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets deep within Russia. The use of an ICBM is Russia demonstrating its greater capabilities in response to Ukraine’s long-range missile strikes.

A senior Ukrainian military official told the Financial Times that Russia launched an ICBM called “RS-26 Rubezh” that has a range of 3,700 miles and can strike any European capital.

Although RS-26 Rubezh can be used to deliver a thermonuclear warhead or an Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, Thursday morning’s attack on the Dnipro region was non-nuclear, instead some sort of conventional warhead. 

“Using these kinds of missiles, whether RS-26 or a true ICBM, in a conventional role does not make a lot of sense because of their relatively low accuracy and high cost,” Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, wrote on X.

“But this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal,” Podvig added.

And yes, it does.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told CNN that the ICBM strike on Ukraine is a “message” to Kyiv’s Western backers. He emphasized that this week’s escalations, including the Biden-Harris administration greenlighting Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets in Russia, have likely prompted this escalation. 

Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for nuclear weapons use. He stated, “The use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response.” 

Davis continued, “Clearly, what the Russians have done here is to take the nuclear warheads off the missile and launch the missile either as an inert missile without anything on it or maybe with some sort of conventional warhead.” 

“They are trying to send a message. They’re trying to massively say to the West, ‘Look, the use of these Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles maybe is challenging Russia’s critical interests.’ And so they’re trying to intimidate us into backing down here,” he added. 

Videos posted on X show what could be warheads from the ICBM striking targets in Dnipro. 

BREAKING:

New video shows a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) striking Ukraine.

The video shows reentry vehicles from its MIRV hitting the city of Dnipro.

It’s the first time in history that an ICBM is used in war. pic.twitter.com/o198cJXvXm

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 21, 2024

This footage captures a major attack unfolding in Ukraine, with Zelensky claiming it was caused by an ICBM—missiles designed to deliver nuclear or conventional warheads and nearly impossible to intercept.

This marks the first-ever deployment of an ICBM just days after Ukraine… pic.twitter.com/kaLwLIDFsd

— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) November 21, 2024

What’s clear is that the Biden-Harris administration knew exactly what they were doing by provoking Russia with the deployment of ATACMS and British missiles. US officials have since closed the US Embassy in Kyiv “out of an abundance of caution.”

In markets, Goldman’s Ece Kepekci commented on the situation: 

“Think particularly in Europe, there is a real geopolitical risk premia now as Ukraine/Russia following a series of escalations. Europe gave up its early rally yday on the back of further missile  attacks (early this morning “Ukraine says Russia Fired ICBM”). Off ramps not obvious but again this is not a new conflict and you’re supposed to fade geopolitical escalation. Sentiment has come down quite a bit “the bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 8.1 vs 21.5 last week.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “It’s a very dangerous position that the outgoing administration is taking,” adding, “There is a new escalation happening.”…

Users on the prediction market platform website Polymarket have bid up the contract “Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?” from 11% at 0400 ET to around 18% at 0930 ET. 

Polymarket has made betting on binary events in the news cycle possible…

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