Playing Nuclear Chicken

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

We continue to climb steadily up the World War III escalation ladder.

Last week, Biden foolishly gave Ukraine the green light to strike deep into Russian territory using U.S. missiles.

Now Russia has responded, as Putin promised they would.

On November 21st Russia launched a new hypersonic missile known as the Oreshnik. It is a unique weapon designed to send a clear message.

The Oreshnik utilizes a system similar to MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle) technology common on nuclear ICBMs.

This new missile has 6 warheads which each have 6 submunitions. That’s 36 projectiles per missile in total.

Here is a still shot of one of the sets of 6 submunitions just before reaching its target.

It is important to note that the projectiles are not glowing due to rocket engines firing. The warheads separated from the booster engine at a much higher altitude and are now gliding.

The submunitions are glowing due to the plasma bubble created by friction against the dense atmosphere at speeds of around Mach 10 (7,600 mph). That’s 2.1 miles per second.

At such speeds, even if the Oreshnik’s submunitions lack significant explosive payloads, the kinetic energy alone would make for an effective strike asset. This is similar to the sci-fi weapon concept colloquially known as “rods from God”, in which inert tungsten rods are flung down from orbit.

The U.S. and NATO have no defense against the Oreshnik. Targeting 36 independent projectiles traveling at 7,600 mph is a fool’s errand. Striking the missile before the warheads separate is also unlikely, as it has a variable-speed solid rocket engine which makes its trajectory unpredictable.

This new missile adds to Russia’s impressive hypersonic arsenal:

• Kinzhal – Mach 10 air-launched ballistic missile
• Zircon – Mach 9 ship-launched cruise missile
• Iskander – Mach 7 ground-launched ballistic missile
• R-37M – Mach 6 air-to-air missile

Each of these weapons is fully operational, in full production, and has been used successfully during the Ukraine war. To date, these weapons have only been used with conventional explosives. But the first three can also be armed with nuclear warheads.

NATO air defenses have not found much if any, success against Russian hypersonics. And with new options such as the Oreshnik, which would likely target air defenses and ballistic missile sites, the balance in conventional weaponry in Ukraine has moved further in Russia’s favor.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is struggling to get our first hypersonic conventional missile, the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), in service. The U.S. has long worked on hypersonic missiles, but the engineering challenges are extreme. Traveling at speeds of Mach 5+ generates massive amounts of heat and friction.

America’s bloated defense sector has been unable to meet the requirements so far. Hopefully, Trump finds success in revitalizing our military-industrial complex. Otherwise, we will continue to fall behind.

Nuclear Options

As Biden goads Russia, he is implicitly relying on America’s nuclear weapons stockpile as a deterrent. At this point, we cannot match Russia when it comes to conventional missile technology.

So when Biden willingly crosses Russia’s red lines, he is counting on the threat of American nuclear weapons to prevent full-out war. He also appears to be attempting to sabotage President Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine.

This is incredibly reckless behavior. One major problem is that Russia has an even larger and more modern nuclear arsenal.

If Moscow or a nuclear power plant is targeted by Ukraine using American missiles, there is a possibility that Russia retaliates with a nuclear strike. We are in essence calling their bluff. And they need to preserve their own defense deterrence posture, or they could look weak.

From there, things could get very ugly very quickly.

In a nuclear war, there are no winners. Biden and his handlers are playing a dangerous game. They are gambling with hundreds of millions of lives.

All of this is simply to drag out another unwinnable conflict. Have we learned nothing from the War on Terror? America’s reign as a lone superpower is over. That’s a reality that needs to sink in so U.S. policy can adapt accordingly.

The sooner the Deep State realizes this, the better off we’ll all be.

The lessons of the Cuban Missile Crisis were clear. Lesson One is to avoid escalation. Lesson Two is that if escalation begins, it’s crucial to de-escalate. Failure to abide by these lessons is a straight path to nuclear war.

Russia has signaled that it is ready to begin immediate negotiations with the Trump administration. Trump’s upcoming presidency may be the only thing preventing WW3.

Inauguration Day can’t come fast enough.