US Home Prices Accelerated To New Record High In December (Except Tampa Again!)

For the second straight month, US home prices accelerated YoY in December (according to the latest data from S&P Global’s Case-Shiller Index). The 20-City Composite saw prices jump 0.5% MoM (faster than expected and the biggest jump since June) and accelerating MoM for the 3rd straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

But, Tampa prices continue to tumble..

In fact, Tampa prices are at their lowest since Sept 2023…

Arguably, (lagged) mortgage rates dipped during that period (positive short-term for the highly smoothed and lagged Case Shiller series), but as is clear, things do not end well…

Source: Bloomberg

However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag)…

Source: Bloomberg

So 100bps of rate-cuts prompted a re-acceleration in home prices…

Source: Bloomberg

Well played Fed!!