Tesla has set its Q1 2025 earnings call for today at 5:30PM eastern time. The event will be livestreamed, with a recording available later on Tesla’s website. The Q1 Update Letter will be released after markets close that same day. This quarter, as multiple Tesla blogs like Teslarati have pointed out, Tesla is also adding a new element: a “Company Update.”
For the first time, the term appeared in both its vehicle delivery report and on the company’s official X account. “In addition to posting first quarter results, Tesla management will hold a live company update and question and answer webcast that day,” the company stated.
Speculation is growing that Tesla may use the update to reveal more about its upcoming projects, particularly the affordable EVs teased in its Q4 2024 report: “Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025…”
Tesla’s Q1 2025 earnings are expected to show a 4.4% decline in profit to $0.43 per share, with revenue holding steady at $21.45 billion, according to FactSet. Analyst estimates range from $0.30 to $0.51 per share, but consensus has dropped over 40% since late 2024. Piper Sandler warned the results will “likely underwhelm,” with margins “probably trending near multiyear lows.”
At the start of April, Tesla reported 330,000 vehicle deliveries in the first quarter, missing Goldman, JPM, Morgan Stanley, and UBS’ estimates of between 351,000 and 375,000.
Tesla shares have been halved since their record high on Dec. 17.
This morning on CNBC the question was whether or not the name was too oversold in the short term. Dan Levy, Barclays senior equity research analyst, on what he’s watching for in Tesla’s Q1 earnings told Joe Kernen: “We’re looking for the potential for Elon Musk to be a bit more reengaged with Tesla — the opportunity to reiterate the FSD driverless event in June. This outweighs some of the fundamental factors that we expect for a weaker earnings result itself.”
Levy sounded a cautious tone ahead of Tesla’s Q1 earnings report, pointing to deeper structural concerns beneath the surface. He noted that the company’s dismal start to the year has effectively set the tone for the rest of 2025. “We had such a weak first quarter… there’s going to be a weak setup for the second quarter as well. It’s just too steep a hill to climb.”
There’s five more things in particular investors will be looking for in this upcoming report and/or update, IBD noted this weekend.
Robotaxis And Affordable EVs
Investor focus is shifting to Tesla’s promised robotaxi rollout. Musk has said paid rides would begin in Austin this June, but his past claims about autonomy have repeatedly fallen short. The latest FSD update shows modest progress, but it’s still far from viable as a robotaxi platform. The Cybercab—unveiled last year as a two-seater without a steering wheel—is supposed to launch before 2027 at under $30,000.
However, Reuters recently reported that Trump’s 145% tariff on Chinese goods has halted key parts shipments, possibly delaying both the Cybercab and Semi. The Cybercab’s cost-saving “unboxed” manufacturing method also remains unproven.
We reported hours ago that aerial images of Tesla’s Texas Gigafactory hinted at cybercab production.
Joe Tegtmeyer, a certified flight instructor, snapped high-resolution aerial images of the Tesla Giga Texas earlier today, which revealed what could be castings of the new Cybercab vehicle. “Interesting developments next to the Giga Texas Casting Machine section today … several new kinds of castings that do not look like Model Y or @cybertruck … looking for experts out there to identify these in the comments!” Tegtmeyer wrote on X.
Interesting developments next to the Giga Texas Casting Machine section today … several new kinds of castings that do not look like Model Y or @cybertruck … looking for experts out there to identify these in the comments!
Also, what looks like more Giga Press parts being… pic.twitter.com/1wFWuoZxIj
— Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) April 21, 2025
Tegtmeyer noted, “Also, what looks like more Giga Press parts being delivered today.”
Tesla’s long-teased affordable EV: Reports suggest the first lower-cost option may just be a simplified Model Y, possibly arriving in 2025 or 2026. “The affordable model, which was supposed to be planned for the second half and which was supposed to be an opportunity for volume — that’s going to be delayed by at least several months,” Levy explained on CNBC, emphasizing how this setback weakens one of the few credible near-term levers for expanding market share.
Vehicle sales for Q1 fell 13% year-over-year to 336,681. Growth is expected to stagnate this year, with consensus forecasting a modest 3% increase in deliveries, though some analysts now expect fewer sales than in 2024.
Tariffs And Tesla In China
China sales rose slightly but remain low-margin, while U.S. and European demand has been hit by Musk’s controversial public profile.
Tesla has quietly removed the “Order Now” button for its Model S and Model X vehicles on its Chinese website, signaling potential disruption amid a deepening US-China trade war. The move comes as Beijing announced a new round of retaliatory tariffs early Friday, raising the effective duty on U.S. imports from 84% to 125%.
Both the Model S and Model X are manufactured in California, making them directly exposed to China’s tariff escalation—in other words, those vehicles would not be economically feasible to sell in a high-rate tariff regime overseas.
“The electric-car maker was offering the option to order the two models as of the end of March, according to a screenshot of its China website archived by Wayback Machine,” Bloomberg noted.
The sudden suspension of ordering Model S/X should not come as a surprise, considering both are made in Fremont, California and then loaded up on RORO carriers to Beijing. The good news for Tesla: Model S/X were a tiny fraction of Tesla sales in China last year, coming in just under 2,000 units, compared with 661,820 for both the Model 3 and Model Y (both made at Shanghai Gigafactory).
While Tesla’s exposure to Trump’s tariffs is limited compared to other automakers, it still relies on Chinese suppliers for battery components, including CATL and BYD. Investors will be watching for updates on how Tesla plans to respond to trade tensions and cost pressures.
Musk’s Political Involvement
Musk’s political involvement is also on watch. He has been rumored to be finishing his work with DOGE by May and people are watching for a potential full-time return to Tesla. While acknowledging the reputational fallout, Levy cautioned against overstating its permanence. “There are all the questions on brand damage and where we are in the global EV market… It remains to be seen. But Tesla is still one of the only ones in the U.S. selling EVs profitably,” he noted. In other words, despite the noise, Tesla still maintains a structural edge in an otherwise unprofitable sector.
Less than 24 hours ago Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called a “code red” at Tesla, saying Musk needed to return to Tesla full time. “Musk needs to leave the government, take a major step back on DOGE, and get back to being CEO of Tesla full-time,” Ives penned in a note to clients on Sunday.
“Tesla is Musk and Musk is Tesla….and anyone that thinks the brand damage Musk has inflicted is not a real thing, spend some time speaking to car buyers in the US, Europe, and Asia. You will think differently after those discussions.”
Two weeks ago, Ives, whose analyst rating on the stock remains “Buy” rated, slashed his price target to $315, down from $550. He explained, “Tesla has essentially become a political symbol globally, adding, “It is time for Musk to step up, read the room, and be a leader in this time of uncertainty.”
Ives concluded, “We view this as a fork in the road time: if Musk leaves the White House there will be permanent brand damage, but Tesla will have its most important asset and strategic thinker back as full time CEO,” adding, “If Musk chooses to stay with the Trump White House, it could change the future of Tesla/brand damage will grow.”
IBD adds that a March YouGov/Yahoo News poll found 67% of U.S. adults wouldn’t consider a Tesla, with 37% citing Musk as the reason. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, a longtime bull, cut his Tesla price target by 40%, calling the situation a “perfect storm” and estimating Tesla has lost at least 10% of its future customer base—potentially more than 20% in Europe.
Margins Under Pressure
Levy concluded that perhaps the most pressing issue is the company’s shrinking margins. He warned that this earnings call could bring further disappointment if profitability doesn’t show signs of stabilizing.
“Margins have been under pressure… If they give any color that shows that the margins are going to remain suppressed, that’s a problem,” Levy said. With automotive gross margins expected to hover around 10% — roughly a third of what they were three years ago — the real story may not be about deliveries or product announcements, but the company’s eroding pricing power and cost structure.
Analyst Sentiment Heading Into The Call
Over the past two weeks, analysts have issued a flurry of updated price targets on Tesla, reflecting a landscape of caution and recalibrated expectations. The only question is if they are low enough to make Q1 look good.
- Raymond James issued a fresh “Outperform” rating for Tesla on April 22, 2025, signaling optimism despite broader market hesitations, though they did not specify a new price target. Just one day earlier, Barclays cut its target from $325 to $275 while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating. Analyst Dan Levy pointed to weak fundamentals, margin pressure, and growing brand concerns tied to Elon Musk’s political entanglements as key factors.
- Wedbush’s Dan Ives, typically one of Tesla’s louder bulls, slashed his target from $550 to $315 on April 6. Though he kept an “Outperform” rating, he issued a warning that Musk’s political activism could do lasting damage to Tesla’s consumer perception and investor trust. Wells Fargo echoed this sentiment on April 21, setting a $130 target with an “Underweight” rating, citing poor demand trends and the risk of product-line cannibalization from a lower-cost model.
- JPMorgan was even more pessimistic, cutting its price target to $120 while reiterating an “Underweight” stance. The firm admitted to underestimating the degree of consumer backlash facing Tesla and now sees continued downward pressure on both margins and sentiment. Deutsche Bank, while still bullish with a $345 target and a “Buy” rating as of late March, also revised down delivery expectations due to softening demand across global markets.
- Exane BNP Paribas joined the bearish ranks, setting a $137 target on April 16 with an “Underperform” rating, reflecting growing skepticism over Tesla’s fundamentals and positioning. UBS dropped its target to $190 with a “Reduce” rating on April 10, citing new tariffs and predicting an 11% hit to Tesla’s 2025 delivery numbers.
- Mizuho also trimmed its target, landing at $375, as it adjusted for anticipated price increases and flagging U.S. demand driven by tariff headwinds.
- Lastly, Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a positive outlook with a newly issued “Overweight” rating on April 2, though it did not attach a numerical target to its bullish thesis.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/22/2025 – 12:00
