Following an unexpectedly large jump in February (biggest in a year), existing home sales were expected to drop significantly in March, and they did. Existing home sales fell 5.9% MoM (considerably worse than the 3.1% MoM drop expected) reversing the upwardly revised 4.4% MoM rise in February, dragging sales down 2.4% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the weakest March sales pace since 2009… and biggest MoM drop since Nov 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
The drop in sales aligns perfectly with the lagged rebound in mortgage rates, which suggests the next two months will see an improvement before weakness resumes…
Source: Bloomberg
The median sales price increased 2.7% from a year ago to $403,700, a record for the month of March and extending a run of year-over-year price gains dating back to mid-2023.
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, new and existing (median) home prices are once again identical…
Source: Bloomberg
The gain in prices largely reflected more sales activity for homes priced above $1 million, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said on a call with reporters. However, he also noted that the size of the increase was relatively mild compared to wage growth.
Prices are rising even as more inventory comes onto the market from depressed levels. The supply of previously owned homes jumped 19.8% from a year ago to 1.33 million, the most for any March since 2020.
Sales declined in all four regions from the prior month, with the biggest drops occurring in the West and South.
Sales of existing single-family homes retreated 6.4%, while sales of existing condominiums were unchanged.
Properties remained on the market for 36 days on average last month, compared with 42 days in February
Finally, while home prices are at record highs, on a ‘real’ inflation adjusted basis (relative to gold, we mean), they are at 12 year lows…
If you had 129 ounces of gold right now, would you swap them for a ‘used’ house?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/24/2025 – 10:11
