Tl;dr: Headline and Core CPI printed ‘as expected’ (which is likely disappointing for the whisper numbers and remember the last CPI printed ‘cooler than expected’). Goods inflation continues to slow but Services inflation continues to soar (highest in over 40 years). Shelter costs continue to soar.
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Expectations for this morning’s headline CPI ranges from +6.3% to +6.8% YoY, with consensus seeing a 0.1% decline MoM – something the world and his pet rabbit has bid stocks up into anticipating this as the signal for an about face by The Fed on their higher for longer narrative as it ‘proves’ inflation has peaked.
The headline print came in right as expected with a 0.1% decline MoM (leaving the YoY print at +6.5% as expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
While Goods inflation tumbled to its lowest since Feb 2021, Services inflation soared to its highest since Sept 1982…
Source: Bloomberg
Energy was the biggest driver of the decline in the YoY print along wioth Goods costs (while Services continues to rise)…
Services and Food costs rose on a MoM basis…
With shelter still rising on a MoM basis…
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM as expected, leaving the YoY rise at +5.7% – lowest since Dec 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Shelter was biggest contributor to Core CPI 0.3% gain: the increase in the shelter index in December at 0.8% is biggest since 1990s.
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Dec rent inflation 8.35%, Y/Y up from 7.91% in Nov
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Dec shelter inflation 7.51% up from 7.12% in Nov
It is also about 12 months behind market reality.
Real average weekly earnings continue to decline – this is the 21st month in a row that Americans’
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, it appears CPI is tracking the decline in M2 velocity (with a lag) rather well…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems the ‘not cooler than expected’ CPI print is disappointing the pre-emptive market.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 01/12/2023 – 08:36
