International Man: Markets are supposed to reflect economic reality. But when central banks suppress interest rates, governments debase currencies, and major powers manipulate oil prices for political purposes, can any market still be considered honest?
Doug Casey: Almost all markets are distorted in some way by government intervention.
Interest rates are the price of money itself. They’re the blood of an economy; when they’re manipulated, it amounts to blood poisoning.
Currencies have become nothing more than floating abstractions. They move up and down by government fiat.
The same is true of every single food item, starting with all the grains, which provide 50% of mankind’s calories, directly or indirectly. Governments subsidize some, put duties on others, regulate how much can be planted, then often store surpluses. This is true of every food—citrus, sugar, coffee, etc., etc. There are no exceptions.
The State distorts metals markets directly with price or import/ export controls as well. But regulations regarding permitting and production are more serious and stretch over decades.
We can’t be sure what prices would be if we lived in a free market economy. Except to say they’d be much lower without the dead hand of the States constantly throwing sand in the gears of commerce.
International Man: Oil is the world’s most important commodity, yet its price can be distorted by sanctions, strategic-reserve releases, production quotas, subsidies, and political pressure. How much of today’s oil price is determined by genuine supply and demand?
Doug Casey: Oil is certainly the most important, most political, and by far the highest dollar volume commodity.
Like every commodity, its basic price parameters are set by supply (how much is produced) and demand (how much is used). But both of those fundamentals are distorted by government policies, starting with taxes on both producers and consumers.
And now we also have to guess how long the wars between Russia and the Ukraine, and the U.S./Israel and Iran will last, and how bad they’ll get. Russia is a huge hydrocarbon producer. The Middle East produces about 1/3rd of the world’s oil and 1/6th of its natural gas. Most of it is now cut off.
It’s not just a question of reduced production. People forget that raw petroleum is basically useless. It only becomes useful and valuable after it’s “cracked” by a refinery into its valuable components—gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and other distillates. And they forget that oil’s only buyers are refineries.
But the refineries are major targets in these wars. Not only that, but they’re about the easiest targets to damage and the most expensive to replace. And they won’t be replaced quickly because they’re likely to be blown up again.
Since I believe these two wars are not only going to continue but get much worse, I’m betting the prices of oil and its products are going up, and availability is going way down. And that’s not even counting the possibility that these wars will expand to something worldwide.
War is historically the major activity of governments. It’s been said, correctly, that war is the health of the State. And governments today are far, far larger and more powerful than ever before. So you can count on much more interference in both the production and consumption of oil in the future. And radical movements in its price.
International Man: When governments can create trillions of currency units, rescue favored institutions, and intervene whenever markets move against them, has investing become less about finding value and more about anticipating the next manipulation?
Doug Casey: Let me define a couple of terms—investing and speculating. Many people throw these words around without really understanding what they mean. The result is sloppy thinking.
Investing is about allocating capital so that it can mix with labor and produce more real wealth. Think about planting a seed to grow a hundred new seeds. Profitable investing is always hard work, but it becomes risky and unattractive in a highly taxed and regulated environment, especially in wartime.
Speculating, however, is about capitalizing on distortions—generally those caused by government. Speculators don’t produce new goods. But by buying when things are cheap (when there’s a glut), and selling when they’re dear (when there’s a shortage), they provide an extremely valuable service. The public dislikes speculators because they profit from times of trouble. But the public, idiotically, fails to understand that speculators profit because they’re solving problems, not causing them.
We can expect to see a lot more speculating, and less investing, in the years to come. The average guy will almost be forced to speculate in an attempt to just keep his head above water. Unfortunately, most of them will prove poor speculators; they’ll wind up as gamblers, relying on luck more than skill.
International Man: Who benefits most from dishonest markets, who ultimately pays the price, and why do most investors fail to recognize the fraud until their purchasing power and savings have already been damaged?
Doug Casey: When a game is rigged, it’s usually the game’s organizer, the house, that does the rigging. In today’s world, the rigging is done by Deep State types, who are close to power, close to people who can change the rules when it suits. It famously happened, for instance, in January of 1980, when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market. The exchange arbitrarily raised margin requirements and bankrupted them.
Central banks can, and do, intervene to prop up stock markets and failing institutions. In 2008, the government rescued or supported AIG, Citigroup, and Bank of America, among others, when Congress approved the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
You may recall the banking emergency of March 2023, when regulators bailed out Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. It was great for the tech nerds; not so great for the average citizen.
You’ll see a lot more of that type of thing in the near future. You’re seeing it right now with the Japanese Yen as the decades-long carry trade is unwound. It’s a real, and inevitable, disaster in the making.
International Man: In a world where almost everything is subject to political intervention, where can an investor still find honest value to preserve wealth? What about intelligent speculations?
Doug Casey: An investor should look for solid and growing businesses selling for reasonable prices. They’re hard to find today; the stock market is very expensive.
A speculator can keep his eye on all the markets, looking to sell something that’s too expensive (like tech stocks) and buy something that’s too cheap (like commodities).
The average guy, who is neither, should probably just buy gold and silver coins anonymously, for cash, and set them aside until the world emerges from both the Greater Depression and World War 3.
You’ll recall that the best broad definition of a depression is a period of time when most people’s standard of living falls significantly.
But it can also be defined as a period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated. That definition is most relevant to what we’re looking at right now. The financial world is overloaded with distortions and misallocations of capital. It’s going to be a real bloodbath at some point.
But the good news is that most of the real wealth will still exist. It will just change hands. That should be good news for you, as a subscriber to Contrarian Insider or Crisis Investing.
* * *
The distortions built up across today’s financial system will eventually have to be resolved—and when that happens, investors may have far fewer options than they do today. The time to think about protecting your wealth is before a crisis forces the issue and governments begin changing the rules. That’s why legendary investor and New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey put together this free special report outlining the key moves he believes are worth considering before a serious dollar crisis takes hold. If you have savings, retirement assets, or wealth tied to the US financial system, you should see it now—while you still have the freedom and flexibility to act. Click here to get it now.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/13/2026 – 15:30
