Futures Rise As 10Y Yields Pull Back From 24 Year High

The disconnect continues. With 10Y yields rising as high as 5.34% – a new 24 year high – before easing back US equities remain completely oblivious of the tightening in financial conditions and instead are obsessing with the memory bubble, and pushing higher on the first day of Q4 as strength in technology shares held up against volatility in bond markets and a renewed climb in oil. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.4%, erasing an earlier loss; Nasdaq 100 contracts rose 0.7% with memory and semis providing support following an upbeat forecast from chipmaker Micron. Mag 7 and software firms were also stronger as the Nasdaq remains in a debt-funded world of its own. The AI theme is boosting Indu / Utils while the most other sectors are lagging as usual. In the near-term, with yields and the  dollar higher, the market seems comfortable reverting to portions of the Q2 playbook which was dominated by Tech / Semis. Meanwhile, Russell 2000 small caps struggles in the face of the highest bond yields in a generation; JPM points out that “more than 40% of the index are unprofitable companies though squeeze risk exists with a MidEast deal.”  Tempering sentiment were swings in global yields, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries briefly touching the highest since 2002 before pulling back; it was trading at 5.27% last. JPMorgan’s market intel suggests that bonds are oversold but may take some time to find a support level. USD continues its bull run, setting a new 52-wk high this morning before erasing gains. Commodities are mixed but higher with crude and Ags leading; Base over Precious with gold/silver flat.  The US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), September final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45 a.m.), September ISM manufacturing and August construction spending (10 a.m.) ahead of the NFP tomorrow, which may have an upside surprise given the ADP print yesterday. 

In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Alphabet is up 1.8% after Google announced its much-awaited new frontier model called Gemini 4 Argon (Amazon +1%, Apple -0.2%, Meta little changed, Microsoft +0.8%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.6%, Tesla (TSLA) +0.3%

• Accenture (ACN) gains 17% after the IT services company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics, including revenue and bookings.
• Constellation Energy (CEG) rises 3% after the operator of gas power plants said it signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Amazon, which covers 690 megawatts of nuclear capacity at Maryland’s Calvert Cliffs Clean Energy Center, including a 190-megawatt uprate.
• Liquidia (LQDA) falls 5% — set to extend decline for a second day — after BTIG downgraded the drugmaker to neutral from buy, citing a court ruling that found Liquidia infringed two claims of rival, United Therapeutics’ patent.
• Nu Holdings (NU) gains 5% after the company said it’s not pursuing a deal with Monzo Bank Ltd.
• Oracle (ORCL) is up 1.9% after the Financial Times reports that Tencent agreed to a five-year lease across the US cloud technology firm’s data centers in Southeast Asia.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 4% after Citi initiated coverage on the space company with a buy rating, calling it a “core holding for space bulls.”.
• Vicor (VICR) rises 12% after the maker of power-conversion technology raised its third quarter sequential revenue growth guidance citing increased royalties from the previously announced first non-exclusive license to Vertical Power Delivery.

In other corporate news, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said the US streaming giant isn’t growing as quickly as he would like.  Amazon.com has agreed to purchase 690 MW of power from Constellation Energy, in a deal that will help the biggest US nuclear operator boost capacity at the only reactors in Maryland. Nubank said it’s not pursuing a deal with Monzo Bank after reports that the Brazilian company was eyeing a transaction with the UK fintech firm.

The global bond selloff is rippling through to equities – well at least non-chip/Mag7/semiconductor equities – while the spread on the riskiest US corporate bonds has jumped above 1,000 basis points over Treasuries for the first time since the regional banking crisis in 2023. 

“Momentum has collapsed outside the tech sector, as the pain threshold for valuations has been crossed,” says Bank J Safra Sarasin’s Wolf von Rotberg. “Even financials have started to underperform” because of widening HY spreads and pressure on borrowers. For BNP Paribas CIB’s Florian Roger, yields at 5.5% is when “the pressure really starts kicking in” for equities. “We’re nearly there and that’s when valuations can start looking excessive.”

Tech, meanwhile, is ignoring the soaring interest rates, and instead focusing on Micron’s debt-fueled results which reinforced confidence that the memory maker and its peers continue to be inundated with orders as hundreds of billions of dollars pour into the global buildout of AI infrastructure. The sector has been the main driver of global stocks through a period marked by geopolitical upheaval and interest-rate hikes, with Micron alone rallying more than 270% this year. 

On AI, anecdotes remain bullish, from Micron’s print to South Korea export data, which showed September chip exports rose 263% year-on-year, accelerating from the month before. Elsewhere in tech, Alphabet Inc. rose 1.8% in early trading after beginning to roll out its latest flagship AI model, Gemini 4 Argon, its long-awaited flagship AI model, but the company is grappling with internal skepticism over how well it performs in key areas. And tech CEOs privately questioned Anthropic’s Dario Amodei for sounding the alarm bell on AI safety, the WSJ reported. In another sign of the scale of the AI buildout, Tencent Holdings Ltd. signed an estimated $7 billion lease deal with cloud provider Oracle Corp., the Financial Times reported.

Still, the memory stock rally may be losing steam, as evidenced by the equity volatility gauge in Korea (Samsung and Hynix account for 53% of Kospi) as traders shift from speculative options for upside to selling volatility. But the underlying supply and demand imbalance remains constructive for pricing and profit: Micron capex is still going higher and customers are extending commitments beyond 2030.

“Take a look at the Nikkei or Nasdaq futures, there’s clearly little gloom and doom,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier in Paris. “The next driver is the third-quarter earnings season which should be strong, just as the last one.”

Swings in oil continue to ripple through markets at a time when a resilient US economy and elevated inflation have investors seeing scope for as many as four Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes over the next 12 months. That outlook has added to strains in bond markets, with US volatility surging to a six-month high.

With a day to go before the US payrolls report, fresh data showed US companies announced the fewest job cuts for any September since 2022. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg TV the economy’s resilience continued to surprise him.

“We’ve identified 5.5% on US 10-year bonds as the level at which pressure really starts kicking in on equity markets,” said Florian Roger at BNP Paribas CIB. “We’re nearly there and that’s when valuations can start looking excessive.”

With macro front and center, there are no less than ten Fed speakers on the agenda today, including Waller, who will speak about Federal Reserve economic data, and Jefferson on the US economy and monetary policy. Trump said former Fed Chair Powell should be forced to resign from the central bank’s board. 

Meanwhile, Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell, with the Stoxx 600 heading for its worst day in almost two weeks and back to the lowest level since June, with the UK’s FTSE 100 down 1%. French short-end bonds underperformed as the government unveiled plans to narrow the budget deficit sharply, kicking off a debate that risks toppling the prime minister. “There’s no one to buy the dip until there is a credible plan to tackle the deficit and debt,” Kruk said. “That’s in any event far away from now.”

Asian stocks were steady as gains in tech firms offset declines elsewhere, with elevated oil prices and bond yields continuing to weigh on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, rebounding from losses of as much as 0.7% earlier in the session.  Chipmakers were the biggest boosts to the index, while financial firms the biggest drags. Australian shares fell the most in seven months, while benchmarks in India, Vietnam and Malaysia also dropped. Markets were shut in Hong Kong and Mainland China for a holiday. 
Semiconductor-related shares got a boost from Micron’s guidance through 2027, lifting tech-heavy markets including Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. Still, oil’s renewed advance above $100 per barrel is keeping inflationary concerns in focus. 

“The hurdle is quite high now for memory companies on these beats and these raises,” Vikas Pershad, portfolio manager at M&G Investments told Bloomberg TV. “I don’t think it’s a surprise that the numbers continue to be strong heading into 2027.”

“Risk appetite remains limited outside the AI-related space,” said Kazunori Tatebe, chief strategist at Daiwa Asset Management. “Investors are worried about interest rates.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.3%. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% against the greenback after the BOJ summary of opinions leaned dovish. Precious metals are little changed. 

In rates, higher energy prices and rising concerns around fiscal sustainability have pushed global government bonds lower. The moves have retraced somewhat but yields are still broadly higher with US 10-year borrowing costs up 1bps to 5.29% after reaching 5.34% — highest since 2002 — during European morning; curve is slightly steeper on the day with front-end and belly outperforming, widening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by about 1bp. In 10-year sector bunds and gilts outperform by 5bp and 1bp respectively. Treasuries hold small losses, keeping yields within 2bp of Wednesday’s closing levels, after paring steeper ones. Futures rebounded from session lows as oil gains were pared, with energy traders weighing higher Middle East crude flows against uncertainty across fuel markets. In Europe, the UK 30-year yield hit 6% for the first time since 1998, while French bond spreads continue to widen ahead of the budget announcement. IG dollar issuance slate is blank so far. Paramount Skydance priced an eight-part, $30 billion offering Wednesday, the sixth-largest deal on record. Robust demand saw orders peak at $109 billion, placing it among the largest order books on record, before closing just short $80 billion.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures have pared a 2.7% increase to about 2%, guiding yields lower. Brent crude futures rise 2.6% and above $100 a barrel. Precious metals are little changed. 

US equity futures were also pulled lower but are still in the green as an upbeat forecast from Micron supports tech stocks. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.3%. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% against the greenback after the BOJ summary of opinions leaned dovish. Precious metals are little changed. 

The US economic data slate includes weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), September final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45 a.m.), September ISM manufacturing and August construction spending (10 a.m.). Fed speaker slate includes Minneapolis’s Kashkari (7:30 a.m.), Richmond’s Barkin, Boston’s Collins and Kansas City’s Schmid (9:05 a.m.), Governor Waller (10 a.m.), Vice Chair Jefferson (1:30 p.m.), Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (3 p.m.), Governor Cook and New York’s Williams (3:30 p.m.) and Dallas’s Logan (7:20 p.m.)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.33%, the highest since 2002, as global bonds grappled with stubborn inflation and warnings that rates may stay “higher for longer.” Brent climbed back above $100. UK long-term yields hit 6% for the first time in almost three decades. BBG
• Washington is winning the War of Hormuz as Middle East oil exports approach pre-war levels, although the Pentagon is expending a lot of resources to guarantee supply and the global shortage of refined energy products is worsening. WaPo
• The Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories to help to ease global fuel prices or face a potential US diesel export ban, said three people close to the discussions. The warning marks an escalation of pressure on Europe as US President Donald Trump considers a potential diesel export ban to bring down US fuel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections. RTRS
• Chinese fuel exporters have canceled some oil-product cargoes slated for export in October, prioritizing domestic supply during an extended period of upheaval in global energy markets. Shipments including gasoline and diesel have been affected, with the prompt spread for these fuels in Asia stretching higher as traders learned the news, indicating a tighter market. BBG
• Factory activity across Europe and Asia expanded last month as demand, partly boosted by the global AI spending boom, remained ‌strong even as the energy price shock from the Iran war kept inflation elevated, surveys showed on Thursday. RTRS
• Japan is aiming to speed up data center development with a $140bn investment scheme leveraging its powerful gas trading company in a bid to become the world’s largest AI infrastructure hub outside the US and China. FT
• Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said price pressures remain elevated after the latest batch of inflation data released Wednesday. Kashkari’s comments come after the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose by 3.4% over the past 12 months in August. Despite revisions to PCE lowering the year-over-year trend, economists project the central bank will largely stay committed to achieving price stability on a timely basis. WSJ
• Powell will probably wind up staying at the Fed until Jan 2028. Politico
• Tencent has signed its largest overseas lease deal with US cloud provider Oracle as the Chinese tech giant strives to catch up in an escalating AI race. The leading social media and gaming group in China this year agreed to a five-year lease across multiple Oracle data centers in south-east Asia, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. FT
• US Senators Hawley (R) and Murphy (D) are planning to introduce AI liability legislation as a bipartisan effort to regulate AI: Axios
• BofA (w/e 26th Sept) Total Card Spending +5.6% Y/Y (prev. +6.9%); notes that after a brief reversal last week, lower-income spending growth again outpaced higher income

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed as the region takes its cue from the similar performance stateside, where participants digested a slew of data, and yields continued to climb despite softer PCE data, while markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong were shut for the National Day holiday. ASX 200 underperformed with all sectors in the red and the downside led by weakness in energy, real estate and defensives, while a return to growth in Australian Exports and Imports did little to inspire. Nikkei 225 rallied with chip-related stocks boosted following strong earnings from Micron, while participants also reflected on the BoJ Tankan survey, which showed sentiment among Large Manufacturers improved but missed forecasts, and coupled with recent weak activity data, supports the argument for a less aggressive BoJ rate normalisation. KOSPI shrugged off the initial weakness and climbed into the green as tech-related momentum began to pick up. Furthermore, US President Trump recently unveiled plans for South Korea to invest USD 200bln in energy projects in the US as part of South Korea’s investment pledge that got auto tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%, while South Korean Exports surged.

Top Asian News

• RBA Financial Stability Review stated that households and businesses are well placed to weather a slower economy and falling house prices, while it added that even if house prices fell a further 20%, only 5% of mortgages would be in negative equity. Furthermore, less than 1% of borrowers are in negative equity and household balance sheets remain strong, while banks are well-positioned to weather a material deterioration in the housing market.
• China’s Finance Minister said they will implement proactive fiscal policy and support achievement of full-year economic goals, while they will boost domestic demand, prevent and resolve debt risks, as well as appropriately accelerate the pace of fiscal spending.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said the government will appropriately control total annual government bond issuance, taking into account both initial and supplementary budgets. On the FX market, Takaichi said the FX market is determined by a number of factors, that economic policy is not aimed at manipulating FX while she also told US President Trump that undervaluation of yen is a problem. Takaichi also added that they expect the consumption tax cut on food will be passed on to sales prices.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.0%) have come under significant pressure to start the final quarter of 2026. Energy prices continue to be the main driver (Brent +1.7%), while the downside in fixed income is also not helping sentiment. Sectors highlight the negative bias, with all sectors entirely in the red. Banks are the clear laggard, with Basic Resources and Consumer Products & Services following suit. US equity futures are mixed, with the tech-heavy NQ outperforming. Focus for Thursday will be on the flurry of Fed speakers, while the Jobs Report is to be released tomorrow. Initially, upbeat sentiment was seen across the Tech space after Micron delivered strong quarterly results after-hours, with upbeat guidance underscoring the robust AI-driven memory demand, although expected margin compression, due to increased worker pay, and higher operating expenses limited the reaction in shares (-0.7% pre-market).

Top European News

• French PM Lecornu reportedly aims for EUR 43bln in new savings in the budget, according to BFM TV. The government intends to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP by 2027, while forecasting higher revenues from VAT and income tax, and lower revenues for businesses, in the 2027 draft budget. The report added that the government wants to put an end to the “windfall” subsidies for renewable energy, extend the tax on sugary drinks and lower the 10% tax allowance ceiling for retirees. Additionally, the government is proposing to freeze family allowances in 2027, hoping this will save EUR 500mln and also seeks a EUR 600mln reduction in spending on the back-to-school allowance.
• European Commission officials will present to member nation’s governments examples of “reforms, investments and outputs” and discuss the regional aspects of the bloc’s budget, Politico reported citing sources. The new system would give the Commission greater control, sidelining some regions. The plan includes bundling agriculture, regional and migration spending into national cash pots called NRPPs, while payments could be conditional on economic reform milestones.
• The German Chancellery has halted Finance Minister Klingbeil’s sugar tax draft bill, which targeted EUR 1.2bln from consumers versus EUR 450mln, Bild reported.
• The UK government is reportedly not planning to overhaul the student loan system in the Autumn budget to cut the cost of living for graduates, the i Paper reported.

FX

• Snapshot: A dire situation, with global yields at multi-decade highs, lifting the USD to levels not seen since May 2025. The CHF benefits post-CPI and haven-demand, whilst the JPY underperformed post-Tankan survey.
• DXY is stronger this morning, and currently trades at the top end of a 101.45-101.84 range; the peak for the day has surpassed the 24 June high (101.80), and now trades at levels not seen since May 2025. The strength today is facilitated by stronger energy prices, with yields also moving higher in tandem. There is no one clear driver for the energy move this morning, but perhaps as traders digest the lack of progress between US-Iran; A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded that Iran’s UN delegation immediately leave the US after negotiations stalled.
• EUR is weaker vs USD this morning, and fell below the 1.13 mark for the first time since May 2025. The single currency has been swept away by the broader USD strength, but also has its own domestic issues to worry about, namely in France. PM Lecornu reportedly aims for EUR 43bln in new savings in the budget, with tax changes likely to make up the rest of the expected EUR 54bln savings plan that was previously touted. Most pertinently is that the deficit is seen falling to 5% of GDP by 2027, well above the EU’s deficit-to-GDP ceiling of 3%. This raises three key concerns: a) Will the EU impose fines/sanctions, b) potential use of Article 49.3 – raising political uncertainty, c) French sovereign debt credit rating downgrades.
• JPY is the clear underperformer this morning, following a weaker-than-expected Tankan report. Mizuho previously noted that a strong reading could boost the odds of an October rate hike at the BoJ; today’s weak reading has likely kicked the can down the road, at least for now. Also for the JPY was the release of the BoJ SOO, which “appears to have disappointed some market participants who were looking for a stronger signal that the BoJ were open to another hike as soon as next month”, MUFG says.

Fixed Income

• Despite a relatively steady APAC-European handover for fixed income, marked pressure has been seen this morning on what appears to be a bit of a self-fulfilling narrative, as concerns over yield upside see major levels breached, in-turn spurring further upside.
• The main point has been the French draft budget and reporting around that. In short, PM Lecornu’s government is looking to save around EUR 43bln from their spending, with various tax-related adjustments also being reported with a total figure of over EUR 50bln still in play as things stand. Nonetheless, this leaves them on track to have a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 5%, well above the EU’s EDP 3% threshold. As such, sovereign updates will be keenly watched in the run up to the 2027 Presidential election.
• Bunds also pressured, in-fitting with peers, awaiting updates from the European Commission on the regional aspects of the bloc’s budget, updates that could weigh on EGBs further. For Germany, Bild reports that Chancellor Merz has blocked vice-Chancellor/Finance Minister Klingbeil’s sugar tax proposal, which would have raised EUR 1.2bln vs the EUR 0.4bln currently planned. Bunds lower by 20 ticks at the time of writing, lower by as much as 60 early doors, but has since been able to find a bit of a floor.
• Despite a lack of fresh fundamental news, the UK 30yr yield has eclipsed the 6% mark. A breach that may well have helped drive some of the self-fulfilling action early on ahead of the broader pressure and French updates.
• USTs, in-line directionally with the above, but with somewhat smaller magnitudes into an afternoon packed with speakers and data. Currently, just above the 104-00 handle, after minting a 103-28+ contract low this morning.
• France sells EUR 11.999bln vs Exp. 10-12bln 3.70% 2036, 3.80% 2037, 1.25% 2038, 2.00% 2048 OAT.
• Spain sells EUR 5.061bln vs Exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 1.45% 2029, 3.40% 2036, 2.90% 2046 Bono.

Commodities

• WTI Nov and Brent Dec futures have reversed overnight losses and are sharply firmer as the European morning progresses, with the complex supported by the continued lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations (see below for details) and despite any obvious news flow to explain the gains. WTI has rallied from a USD 88.79/bbl low to a USD 92.90/bbl high, while Brent has surged from USD 96.55/bbl to briefly top USD 100/bbl, printing a USD 100.79/bbl high. There was also focus on diesel after the US reportedly told France and Germany to release emergency stocks or face a possible US export ban.
• Dutch TTF is firmer alongside the broader energy complex, with ongoing Middle Eastern uncertainty keeping supply risks on traders’ minds. Syria also reported that three power plants remain out of service following a gas pipeline explosion. TTF has risen from a EUR 71.22/MWh low to a EUR 74.25/MWh high.
• Precious metals are flat/mixed as the rise in crude pushes global yields higher, limiting the benefit from lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Spot gold is little changed overall in a USD 4,139/oz low to a USD 4,193/oz high, while spot silver is modestly firmer within a USD 59.97-61.43/oz range.
• Base metals are softer, with the complex pressured by higher energy prices and yields, while mainland China remains closed for the National Day holiday. 3M LME copper is down almost 1.5% within a USD 14,231-14,491/t range, while COMEX copper is similarly lower.
• In geopolitics, Trump said developments regarding Iran will happen “very soon” and that the war could end soon, while a White House official said a deal remains possible. However, negotiations have stalled, with US Secretary of State Rubio reportedly demanding Iran’s UN delegation leave the US, while Iranian officials said they received Washington’s response to their latest proposal without disclosing its contents. Further support comes from reports that the Israeli Security Cabinet will discuss the situation “on all fronts” on Sunday following yesterday’s Flydubai incident, which was a suspected terrorist plot, with Israel not ruling out Iran’s involvement.
• The US has reportedly told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a possible export ban, according to sources. The source added that the US wants the EU to release 120mln barrels of diesel in the next six months. Following this, reports suggested that the EU is seeking to form a unified position on releasing diesel reserves.
• Chinese refiners reportedly suspend fuel product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, according to Reuters.
• US Interior Secretary Burgum said a European refined fuel stockpile release could lower prices and that European voluntary release of diesel stockpiles would help.
• US Energy Secretary Wright said they will have some announcements on diesel and will hear announcements from Europe about new diesel supplies.
• US President Trump said a diesel export ban is something they talk about daily, but could have a negative impact on gasoline, which would go up.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump announced a deal for nuclear power plants to be funded by South Korea, as part of South Korea’s investment pledge that got auto tariffs reduced from 25% to 15%.
• South Korea’s Industry Minister said he lodged strong objections with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick over his announcement on the Alaska LNG project.
• South Korea Industry Minister said the US is likely to maintain a tariff rate on South Korea at 15%, according to Yonhap.
• Japan plans to send a business delegation to Beijing next March, looking for talks with Chinese President Xi’s leadership, Kyodo reported citing sources.

Central Banks

• Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said inflation is still too high and is around a 3% rate, while he added that new data didn’t change that story and that the longer the economy remains strong, the more he questions how restrictive monetary policy is. Kashkari said he pencilled in one more hike this year and another next year, while he hopes the Fed can bring inflation down with modest action and said the Fed must get inflation back to 2% given how long it’s been above target.
• Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) noted a record gap between consumer sentiment vibes and hard data of spending, while he stated that sentiment is a less informative growth indicator.
• BoE Governor Bailey said the AI boom could trigger market shocks, while he added that AI asset prices could see a correction and that AI investment brings sticky risks.
• BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September meeting noted one member said it’s appropriate to continue raising rates in accordance with the economy, price and financial developments, while a member said the policy phase has shifted and the BoJ must focus on keeping underlying inflation anchored around 2%. It was also stated that the BoJ must respond flexibly and demonstrate to markets its determination to prevent an inflation overshoot while staying mindful of FX-market effects and that the BoJ must accelerate rate hikes if signs emerge of an inflation overshoot. Furthermore, there was an opinion that the BoJ must raise rates towards the terminal level early so it can react quickly to unexpected economic and price developments, although a member said there is no need to hurry rate hikes, but policy must be steered appropriately as underlying inflation is likely to reach 2% soon.
• ECB has asked the EU to start finding a successor to ECB’s Schnabel.

Middle East

• A US official said Secretary of State Rubio demanded on Monday that Iran’s delegation to the UN General Assembly immediately leave the country after negotiations stalled, according to Axios.
• UK PM Burnham said there are strong indications that Iran played a part in what happened over the weekend at the Fairford Air Base incident.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi rejected UK PM Burnham’s accusations linking Tehran to an alleged security incident involving the Fairford Airbase in the UK, while he stated that “I can confirm Iran’s belief that releasing supposed terrorists working for foreign states really says it all”.
• Israeli Security Cabinet to discuss situation “on all fronts” on Sunday, Al Hadath reported.

Other

• South Korea’s President Lee said they will take practical measures to lower military tension with North Korea, while South Korea is to upgrade its missile defence systems, including AI-based command networks and laser interceptors.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Sep 26 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200k, prior 197k
• 8:30 am: Sep 19 Continuing Claims, est. 1725k, prior 1719k
• 9:45 am: Sep F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 57, prior 57
• 10:00 am: Sep ISM Manufacturing, est. 55, prior 54.6
• 10:00 am: Sep ISM Prices Paid, est. 73, prior 71.1
• 10:00 am: Aug Construction Spending MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.5%

Central Bank Speakers

• 7:30 am: Fed’s Kashkari on Bloomberg TV
• 9:05 am: Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid on Panel About Rural America
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Federal Reserve Economic Data
• 1:30 pm: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on US Economy and Monetary Policy
• 3:00 pm: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Modernizing Financial Regulation
• 3:30 pm: Fed’s Cook and NY Fed’s Williams at Panel
• 7:20 pm: Fed’s Logan Speaks At Eleventh District Appreciation Event

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to Q4, although as I write this from Chicago, having moved on from Pheonix, I’m still in Q3. As it’s the start of the quarter for most of the world, Henry will shortly release our usual review of how different financial assets fared in Q3. Overall, it was a tricky quarter, as the re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict pushed Brent crude oil up +42.0% from its lows at the end of June. So that led to a major global bond selloff, with 10yr Treasury yields up for a 7th consecutive month for the first time since 2011. They ended up climbing +53bps in September, the most since September 2022. To be fair, it wasn’t all bad news, as global growth and earnings were very resilient. But that only added to the rates pressure and gave central banks the space to turn more hawkish, with the Fed, ECB and BoJ all hiking again in September. So it was a terrible month for fixed income, with equities also a little soft. The S&P 500 fell -0.3% in September but that outperformed the Stoxx 600 (-2.4%), DAX (-4.0%) and FTSE (-2.0%).

In terms of the last 24 hours, it was a difficult session for investors to grapple with, as multiple trends all hit at once. On the bright side, downward revisions to the US PCE inflation data pushed back on speculation the Fed would hike this month. That had helped equities recover for most of the session but a late month-end sell-off left the S&P -0.25% lower at the close. Meanwhile, other headlines were more inflationary, with Brent crude up another +0.92%, whilst the flash CPI prints from several European countries surprised on the upside. And on top of that, the bond market stress continued, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+4.9bps) rising to another post-2007 high of 5.28%, whilst the Franco-German 10yr spread widened to a post-2012 high of 127bps. So despite the PCE-related rally, there were still clear signs of stress in fixed income. 30yr USTs were +6.3bps, with month-end positioning perhaps again playing a part. And if all that wasn’t enough, the theme of Fed independence reared its head again, with Trump posting that Powell “should be forced to resign” from the Fed Board.

That PCE data was the big event yesterday, and it generally leant in a more dovish direction. Admittedly, the core PCE print for August wasn’t far from expectations, at a monthly +0.25% (vs. +0.3% expected). But the significant news was the downward revisions to the previous months, which made the overall inflation picture look a lot better. So with those revisions, the year-on-year core PCE print was only at +3.0% (vs. +3.3% expected), whilst headline PCE was only at +3.4% (vs. +3.7% expected). And if you just look at the more recent trends, the 3-month annualised rate for core PCE stood at +2.05% in August, which is actually the softest it’s been since July 2024.

So that played into the narrative from NY Fed President Williams on Tuesday, and it meant market pricing for an October hike was down from 47% on Tuesday to 37% by the close last night, while the amount of hikes priced by year-end fell by -2.5bps to 29.6bps. Indeed, our US economists see the print as reducing the urgency for the Fed to act in October but, with inflation still well above target, they maintain the expectation of the next hike in December.

However, this dovish repricing didn’t hold further out the curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield closing +1.1bps higher on the day at 4.89% after trading as low as 4.825% after the PCE release.  At the same time, the relentless long-end selloff continued, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+4.9bps) hitting another post-2007 high of 5.28%. Indeed, it had traded as high as 5.304% with less than an hour of trading left, which would have seen it surpass the 2007 closing peak of 5.29% and reach the highest level since 2002. Moreover as discussed above, the 30yr yield (+6.3bps) saw an even bigger increase to a post-2002 high of 5.63%. The 10yr real yield (+2.6bps) rose to a post-2008 high of 2.92%. The continued rise in yields saw equities soften after an initial post-PCE rally, before a further sharp fall in the final 15 minutes of trading left the S&P 500 -0.25% lower on the day despite trading +0.68% higher early on.

Meanwhile, in other Fed news, Trump claimed in social media post that “‘Too Late’ Powell should be forced to resign from the Board” following an Inspector General report into budget overruns during the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. As a reminder while Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ended in May, his term as Fed Governor runs through to January 2028.

Even as the PCE data surprised on the downside, there were still other inflationary pressures in the mix yesterday. The main one was higher oil prices once again, with Brent crude (+0.92%) up to $103.53/bbl, though due to the month-end change in the benchmark this will now fall towards $98/bbl so be careful when you now look at the front contracts. WTI (+1.16%) was up to $90.42/bbl. There wasn’t a single catalyst for that, but the moves came amidst growing scepticism that the US and Iran would reach a deal anytime soon. Indeed, that concern was clear further out the oil futures curve, with the Brent future for December 2027 up +0.54% to a new high of $81.25/bbl yesterday.

The other inflationary headline came from the flash CPI prints for several Euro Area member states in September, which consistently surprised on the upside. So the German inflation print rose more than expected to +3.3% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +3.2% expected). Similarly in France, inflation was up to +3.4% (vs. +3.2% expected), and in Italy, inflation rose to +4.1% (vs. +3.7% expected). So that raised fears that the Euro Area-wide number tomorrow would come in on the stronger side, and that the ECB would need to be more hawkish to deal with that. Our European economists now see headline Euro Area CPI tracking at +3.8%, a tenth above consensus, with core inflation tracking at +2.5%, in line with consensus but a tenth above their earlier expectation.

The bond market stress was also clear in France, where the spread of French yields over their German counterparts took another leg higher yesterday. Most notably, the Franco-German 10yr spread rose +8.7bps to 127bps by the close, the highest it’s been since June 2012, and up from 85bps at the start of the month. At the same time, the Italian 10yr spread over bunds also closed above 100bps yesterday for the first time in over a year, ending the session at 103bps. In absolute terms, the 10yr bund yield still fell -3.9bps on the day to 3.58%, but the signs of financial stress took their toll across the continent. Indeed, France’s CAC 40 (-0.89%) was the worst-performing of the major European equity markets, whilst the STOXX 600 (-0.50%) also struggled.

Overnight in Asia, the Nikkei is +2.35% and KOSPI +0.5% higher in very early trading. China and Hong Kong are closed for holidays. The ASX (-1.51%) seems to be caught up in the bond sell off that’s seeing Japanese and Aussie governments bonds catch down to yesterday’s fixed income sell off. Micron results last night after the bell seem to be helping Asia tech and also S&P (+0.30%) and Nasdaq (+0.45%) futures although I’m writing this in Q3, and a bit earlier than I would if I were in London so by the time you read this things may have changed.          

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the September ISM manufacturing from the US, along with the final manufacturing PMIs from around the world. In addition, we’ll get the Euro Area unemployment rate for August and the weekly initial jobless claims from the US. Otherwise, central bank speakers include Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, the Fed’s Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller Bowman, Cook, Williams and Logan, ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Cipollone, Makhlouf, Nagel, Sleijpen and Schnabel, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Mann and Pill.