The number of American filing for unemployment benefits for the first time dropped (again) last week to 194k – basically in line with 60 year lows…
Michigan saw the largest rise in initial claims last week while Ohio and Tennessee saw the biggest decline…
Continuing Claims ticked up but remains very close to 3 year lows…
The cleanest way to reconcile it is that this is a “low-fire, low-hire” labor market, with employers hoarding labor, not shedding it.
Of course, claims remain a poor gauge of how hard it is to get hired, since new entrants, re-entrants, and gig workers mostly can’t file.
Low firing plus low hiring means insiders feel secure while anyone outside the job market is stuck.
Of course, sentiment remains disastrously low, but we’d argue it’s mostly a prices story wearing a jobs costume (impacted by political bias within the polling).
The bottom line is that claims tell you a recession isn’t imminent, payrolls tell you momentum is fading, and sentiment tells you the median household is getting squeezed by prices rather than layoffs.
The risk is that this equilibrium breaks non-linearly: low-hire markets can flip to firing quickly once margins compress, and claims would be the last of the three to flag it, not the first.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/22/2026 – 08:36
