After a surprising surge in May, US Housing Starts and Building Permits both decline in June (-8.0% MoM and -3.7% MoM respectively) and Starts saw sizable downward revisions from last mopnth (from +21.7% MoM to +15.7% MoM).
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, only single-family building permits increased in June (6th month in a row of increases). Multi-family permits and both single- and multi-family Starts dropped.
Source: Bloomberg
Multifamily construction dropped over 11%, but worse still, applications to build multifamily dwellings such as apartments fell 13.5% (the most since November) to 540k (lowest since Oct 2020)….
These MoM moves have dragged the Starts and Permits SAAR down notably (1.434mm and 1.440mm respectively)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally we note that while Housing Starts and Completions remain well off their 2022 highs, Construction Jobs remain very close to those highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Is there a wake-up for residential construction employment coming?
Finally, we note that Mortgage Bankers Association data released earlier this morning showed applications for home purchases dropped last week as the contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage – while improved – remained close to 7%.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 07/19/2023 – 08:40
