Buried deep inside today’s JOLTs report was some data that is simply stunning, and suggests that Friday’s jobs report – now that the data goalseeking and manipulation is largely over with the near-record downward jobs revision in the books – could be a disaster.
We are referring to the historic collapse in construction job openings, which have tumbled from an all time high of 456K in February to a four year low of 248K in July, a plunge of nearly 50% in just 6 months, and a level which the US economy first reach back in 2016!
And yet… in the same period, the Department of Labor’s “other hand” which clearly was unaware of what is going in the realm of job openings, reports that when it comes to actual Construction jobs, the number has never been higher: indeed, at 950K, the number of residential building construction jobs is the highest on record.
Needless to say, there has never been a disconnect as gaping as the one shown below!
Which data set is right? To answer that question you don’t even have to look at where interest rates are (nor know what the highest rates in 40 years do to housing demand), but merely take a look at the other key metrics of the US housing market such as new Housing Starts which are in freefall, or the lagging Housing Completions which are unchanged in two years…
… and realize that the number of construction jobs is about to crater.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/04/2024 – 16:23
