Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,
The Ukrainian Prosecutor GeneralĀ revealedĀ on Monday that the SBU foiled an alleged J6-like plot to seize power in Kiev the day prior by orchestrating a protest that would deliberately descend into a riot whose participants, including military personnel and PMCs, would then storm the Rada.
Zelensky has beenĀ fearmongering since NovemberĀ about a so-called āMaidan 3ā that he claimed was being organized by Russia against him so itās very likely that heāll spin this latest development as proof of that supposed plot.
It serves his political interests to discredit the possibility that this was a truly homegrown regime change attempt which might even potentially be tied toĀ disgruntled members of the militaryĀ irrespective of whether they have any connection with former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. He used to be Zelenskyās chief rival before being replaced and designated as the new Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK and was of the opinion that it had become impossible to attain Zelenskyās maximalist objectives in the conflict.
Observers should also remember that Zelenskyās term expired in late May so heās illegitimate due to theĀ compelling legal argumentĀ made by President Putin last month that the Speaker of the Rada is now the head of state if the Ukrainian Constitution is still being followed. Moreover, thereās a lot of anger over the countryāsĀ forcible conscription measuresĀ that have ramped up due toĀ Russiaās fresh push in Ukraineās Kharkov RegionĀ in early May, so genuine anti-government sentiment veritably exists nowadays.
It therefore canāt be ruled out that this was indeed the work of bonafide domestic dissidents with no relationship whatsoever to Russia despite whatever Kiev might claim. Lying about that countryās alleged connection to the conspirators serves the dual purpose of justifying further crackdowns on society while reminding the West of the supposed āRussian threatā ahead of next weekās NATO Summit in an attempt to pressure them into extending more meaningful support forĀ Ukraine.
The timing with which everything just unfolded is also worthy of further examination keeping in mind that upcoming event. According to the Prosecutor General, the culprits began disseminating anti-government messages on social media in May and continued doing so into June, which was what presumably attracted the stateās attention. It can thus be surmised that the authorities were aware of everything about this plot from its early stages and that it accordingly never posed a credible threat.
The reason why it wasnāt busted right away could have been to identify the full extent of their plans and expose everyone else within this network in order to take them all down at once. Thatās sensible enough, but there might have also been an ulterior motive at play too, namely to make sure that this story circulates in the run-up to the NATO Summit for Zelenskyās previously mentioned self-interested political reasons instead of prematurely introducing it into the global information ecosystem weeks in advance.
Moreover, seeing as how Ukraine has reportedly begun a military buildup along the Belarusian border, itās possible that Kiev planned to make this J6-like news public around the same time in order to exploit predictable allegations of Russian involvement in the plot as the pretext for the aforesaid measures. In that way, this move could then be spun as ādefensiveā even though itās arguably predicated on at least conveying an intent to threaten Russiaās mutual defense ally, the purpose of which was explainedĀ here.
Putting it all together, it appears as though the conspirators are homegrown dissidents without any ties to Russia, though they might have some connections to disgruntled members of the military. The authorities knew about their plans early on but declined to bust them right away since they wanted to obtain more information. The ulterior motive was to have this story coincide with the latest Belarusian tensions and the upcoming NATO Summit, however, thus possibly presagingĀ more Western escalations.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/02/2024 – 03:30