Beer Distribution Data Signals “Rough Start” To Summer Drinking Season

The growing prioritization of mental health and wellness—amplified across social media platforms by prominent health influencers—appears to be accelerating a “sobriety revolution” among younger generations. This behavioral shift is increasingly translating into reduced alcohol consumption and presents a structural headwind for beer brands, as Gen Z, in particular, redefines norms around drinking. 

Often labeled the “sober-curious” generation, Gen Z has distanced itself from risky behaviors like alcohol consumption, with drinking rates steadily declining in recent years. This trend was evident in Goldman’s latest survey of beer distributors, which reported weaker-than-expected beer demand over the Memorial Day holiday weekend. 

Goldman analysts, led by Bonnie Herzog, found that beer trends over the Memorial Day holiday weekend largely underperformed. This data was based on feedback from her beer distributor contacts (representing ~50 beer distributors or >230,000 retail outlets/~46% of total US outlets that sell alcohol). 

Herzog largely attributed sliding beer demand to “a challenging macro environment, which appears to be the primary drag on beer trends—as consumers have less disposable income and are prioritizing non-discretionary purchases. Additionally, recent policy changes (e.g., government stance on immigration) and adverse weather conditions further pressured consumption patterns.”

Sure, a challenging macro backdrop usually squeezes household budgets—but historically, that kind of financial misery fuels more drinking, not less. The real culprit behind the beer slowdown? A generational shift of sober-curious youngsters, supercharged by wellness influencers with large followings on social media, is single-handedly rewiring consumption habits. 

Here are key beer themes Herzog found for the holiday weekend:

• Memorial Day weekend trends were softer than expected; 55% of distributors reported weaker sales vs last year.

• Major drags: weak macro environment, immigration policy uncertainty, and unfavorable weather.

• Total beer category expected to decline -1.9% in 2025, worse than -1.0% in 2024.

Per brand basis:

• STZ (Constellation Brands): Mixed performance—Modelo growth moderating, but still outperforming category; Pacifico strong; Corona Extra under pressure. Buy rated.

• TAP (Molson Coors): Holding onto gains from the Bud Light fallout; Miller Lite & Coors Light slowing but maintaining share. Buy rated.

• SAM (Boston Beer): Truly expected to decline -11% in 2025; Twisted Tea moderating; Sun Cruiser seen as a bright spot. Sell rated.

• ABI (Anheuser-Busch): Mixed—Michelob Ultra strong, Bud Light remains weak.

• HEIN: Weakest of the group.

Retail beer sales declined year-over-year in the four weeks ending May 17, according to recent sales trend data.

By the brands…

STZ: All Brands 

STZ: Modelo

STZ: Corona

TAP: Miller Lite 

TAP: Coors Light

SAM: Twisted Tea

SAM: Truly 

Meanwhile…

While Goldman analysts believe macroeconomic challenges are pressuring low- to mid-income consumers to spend less on booze, financial misery has historically been a reliable catalyst for drinking more—not less. The bigger story is clear: younger generations are simply drinking less, driven by a growing focus on wellness, mental health, and sober lifestyle trends.