Core Consumer Prices Rise For 53rd Straight Month, Hit New Record High

Tl;dr: The inflation story is far from over… no matter what The Fed or The White House claims…

For the 53rd straight month, core consumer prices rose on a MoM basis in October with the YoY pace re-accelerating to +3.33%…

Source: Bloomberg

Services costs are starting to pick up again…

Source: Bloomberg

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in August and September.

• The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in October.

  • The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.4 percent and the index for rent rose 0.3 percent over the month.

  • The lodging away from home index rose 0.4 percent in October, after falling 1.9 percent in September.

• The medical care index increased 0.3 percent over the month after increasing 0.4 percent in September.

  • The index for physicians’ services increased 0.5 percent in October and the prescription drugs index rose 0.2 percent over the month.

• The used cars and trucks index rose 2.7 percent in October, after rising 0.3 percent in the previous month.

• The index for airline fares rose 3.2 percent over the month and the index for recreation increased 0.4 percent.

• Other indexes that increased in October include personal care and education.

• The index for apparel fell 1.5 percent in October, following a 1.1-percent increase the preceding month.

• The communication index decreased 0.6 percent over the month, as it did in September.

• The index for household furnishings and operations and the index for motor vehicle insurance also declined in October.

• The new vehicles index was unchanged over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.

• The shelter index increased 4.9 percent over the last year, accounting for over 65 percent of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.

• Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+14.0 percent), medical care (+3.3 percent), education (+3.8 percent), and personal care (+2.5 percent).

The headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) which reaccelerated the YoY rise to +2.6% (as expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Goods deflation ended on a MoM basis…

Source: Bloomberg

While Goods prices are still in deflation, they are re-acclerating and Services inflation remains extremely elevated…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, the much-watched (for a while) SuperCore (Services Ex-Shelter) CPI remains stubbornly high…

Source: Bloomberg

The deflationary pressures are easing…

Source: Bloomberg

On a short-term basis, it’s energy’s deflation that is doing God’s work for Biden/Harris/Powell..

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, headline consumer prices are up 20.4% since Biden/Harris took over (that is almost three times the pace of price inflation that was seen under Trump’s first term)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is a resurgence in CPI already baked in the cake (as global money supply has been resurgent)?

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, could we really replay the ’70s once again?

Source: Bloomberg

Will that really be Powell’s legacy? Or will the timing of this resurgence in inflation be perfectly timed to coincide with Trump’s election victory… and offer a perfect patsy for who is to blame?