The escalating trade war between the US and China could increase liquefied natural gas flows to energy-stricken Europe, as China remains on a multi-month buying strike.
Bloomberg cited marine traffic data from Kpler, showing that no US LNG shipments are currently inbound or about to be inbound to China.
“Zero LNG trade between China and the US is likely to continue for the rest of 2025, with a further increase in China’s tariff on US LNG from the previous 15% to 49%, as a counterstrike against Trump’s steepest tariffs,” Wei Xiong, head of China gas research at Rystad Energy, wrote in a note.
She added, “In the meantime, we expect to see more reselling by Chinese companies.”
On Feb. 10, China—the world’s largest LNG buyer—imposed a 15% tariff on US LNG shipments. Last week’s tariff escalation, which pushed Beijing’s effective tariff rate on US goods to around 54%, is expected to disrupt trade flows further.
In President Trump’s first term, China paused US LNG shipments for about 400 days through April 2020. There’s no telling how long the current buying strike will last as both superpowers duke it out on trade. The good news is that some US trading partners, including Vietnam and Taiwan, have capitulated to the trade war.
The other piece of good news is that US LNG shipments originally destined for China can be rerouted to Europe, offering relief as the energy-stricken continent works to replenish inventories after winter and offset the loss of Russian pipeline gas.
Goldman’s Samantha Dart told clients late last year that American LNG could “theoretically” replace Russian LNG imports in the EU.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/07/2025 – 11:25
