Weak tax refunds were expected to weigh on retail spending going forward, but perhaps not quite yet as expectations were for a MoM rebound from March’s unexpected decline with omnciscient BofA forecasting around consensus:
And rebound it did, but the headline print was disappointing – up only 0.4% MoM (vs +0.8% MoM exp) – but core and control group data (which fits into GDP calcs) were better than expected…
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Retail Sales 0.4%, Exp. 0.8%
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Retail Sales ex Auto 0.4%, Exp. 0.4%
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Retail Sales Control Group 0.7%, Exp. 0.3%
Prior months were revised little stronger:
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March Retail sales -1.0%, Revised to -0.7%
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March Retail sales ex auto -0.8%. Revised to -0.5%
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March Retail sales control group -0.3%, Revised to -0.4%
What is more notable is that (nominal) retail sales rose just 1.6% YoY (well below inflation) – the slowest since May 2020 – suggesting the consumer is feeling the pinch in a big way…
Source: Bloomberg
All of the YoY measures are at their slowest pace since COVID lockdowns…
Under the hood, 7 out of 13 retail categories rose last month.
The value of motor vehicle sales increased 0.4%, while receipts at gasoline stations fell 0.8%…
The market seems most focus on the Control Group’s beat with 10Y Yields up 4bps post-date.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 05/16/2023 – 08:38
