The first wave of the trade war shock will arrive this week, with the Port of Los Angeles bracing for disruptions that will ripple through Southern California’s Inland Empire warehouse network and pile new pressure onto the struggling trucking industry. Depending on inventory levels at importers and retailers, high-volume Chinese-made staple goods may soon be disappearing from store shelves or racks at e-commerce warehouses, as 145% tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US have triggered a massive slowdown in trans-Pacific shipping activity.
Let’s begin with our reporting that started about one week ago:
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“West Coast On Tipping Point”: Los Angeles Port Set For Steep Drop In Traffic
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First Tariff Shock Set To Hit Port Of Los Angeles, With Ripple Effects Across The Broader Economy
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Trade War Shock Looms For Port Of Los Angeles As Goldman Identifies Most-Impacted Products
After a weekend of …
The latest data from Port Optimizer, a tracking system for vessel operators, shows that scheduled import volumes at the Port of Los Angeles began sliding on Sunday and are expected to worsen through mid-May. The slowdown in shipments from China reflects a lag: from when a Chinese factory halts shipments to when goods complete the trans-Pacific journey on a container ship, typically taking around 30 days or slightly longer.
In a note to clients, Goldman analysts Patrick Creuset, Theodora Beadle, and others published a chart pack highlighting the latest global shipping data.
Two charts stood out, including this one, citing data from the US National Retail Federation showing expected import cargo volumes to plunge over the next two months.
Inventories remain stable for now, but that could change once the trade impacts on imported cheap Chinese junk become widely publicized.
In a separate report, the Financial Times quoted Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world’s largest container shipping lines, as saying Chinese exporters have canceled about 30% of their bookings out of the world’s second-largest economy because of the trade barriers—the highest in a century—to entering the US market.
Last week, Goldman’s Jack McFerran provided clients with a “China Export Tracker” produced by Trina Chen, head of China research and Asia commodities at Goldman.
“She has created a tracker and working with 46x corporates with products representing 70% of the China export value to gauge the speed and size of changes as they happen,” McFerran said.
Trina Chen’s export tracker shows clients which products from China are most likely to be impacted if shortages materialize over the next couple of months.
“Luxury goods are the least likely to be impacted. It’s the high volume staples that are about to dry up,” FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller wrote on X. He offered good news: “Good news, however, is that food and gasoline are largely unaffected.”
Luxury goods are the least likely to be impacted. It’s the high volume staples that are about to dry up.
Good news, however, is that food and gasoline are largely unaffected. https://t.co/4KZACyMAhz
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) April 28, 2025
Fuller continued:
China was 2% of global GDP in 1980. Today it is 18%.
The vast majority of the industries that China now leads were created in the United States and Europe, often through the theft of intellectual property by American and European companies.
China would steal our intellectual property, avoiding all the research and development in technology and market research, and then sell us the same products back at a much cheaper price.
China was able to grow its economy so rapidly because of the peacetime dividend afforded by America’s unchallenged superpower status and global policing—the age of Globalization.
That world ended in 2022, and we are now transitioning into a multipolar world, where increased conflict is expected.
The Second Cold War is here, and Supply Chains are the front lines.
China was 2% of global GDP in 1980. Today it is 18%.
The vast majority of the industries that China now leads were created in the United States and Europe, often through the theft of intellectual property by American and European companies.
China would steal our…
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) April 28, 2025
The takeaway is that the trade war shock for imported Chinese goods is underway. Imported volumes of high-volume staples are likely to crater through the end of June, which may spark shortages.
The days of choosing from 150 different types of Chinese Bluetooth speakers on Amazon are ending. And, Oh, what a shame for the consumer. Maybe it’s back to a time when there were just a few dozen – and many of those speakers were of great quality – not today’s junk that fuels the ‘plastic throw away culture’. Shouldn’t the ‘green’ activists be all about this?
Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/28/2025 – 12:20
