Having exposed the total decoupling from reality in initial claims recently (near multi-decade lows despite surging job cuts, weak labor market survey indicators, and higher unemployment rates), last week saw the numbers provided by the government suddenly explode higher (by the most since July 2021) to the highest since August 2023 (258k)…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing jobless claims also spiked from 1.816mm to 1.861mm Americans…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, of course, Hurricane Helene has had a big impact on these numbers (with North Carolina seeing a major surge in initial claims, and storm-affected states like Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky also seeing a jump in claims), so let’s not get carried away yet that reality is leaking into these numbers.
In Michigan, layoffs were part of reduced shifts at Stellantis.
A Department of Labor comment pointed to “layoffs in the manufacturing and in management of companies and enterprises industries.”
So – to summarize – inflation printed way hotter than expected this morning and the labor market indicators crashed – good luck with that stagflationary malarkey Mr. Powell.
Of course, The Fed will likely shrug off the claims surge as ‘localized’ and ‘transitory’…
Tyler Durden
Thu, 10/10/2024 – 08:52
