This week Vice President JD Vance reiterated the Trump Administration’s position that “walking away from Ukraine” and the peace negotiations after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded that Crimea be “liberated” as part of the terms. Zelensky argued that the “war against the entire free Europe” began with Crimea and must end with the return of Crimea.
Vance’s frustration with Zelensky is understandable. As he noted, Ukraine is in no position to demand anything given their precarious position on the battlefield. Russia’s attrition tactics have been highly effective in countering western arms and intel support on the eastern front while also whittling down Ukrainian troop strength. They have also retaken almost all of the gains made by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region while they amass troops to take Sumy to the south.
Furthermore, Vladimir Putin’s latest missile salvo on Kyiv proves that the Kremlin has actually been holding back, and heavy bombardment of the capital is entirely possible. Ukraine does not have the ability to defend against such an attack should it occur.
At bottom, Ukraine has no options. They need to settle now, give up the Donbas and Crimea, or lose everything. A deal would probably have been secured by now if it weren’t for interference from the European establishment.
The Europeans have once again organized a peace talks event, this time in London, as a means to make the situation about them rather than make it about achieving a legitimate end to the war. Russia is, yet again, not included in the talks which makes the event nothing more than irrelevant pomp for the media. This is likely the real reason why Secretary of State Marco Rubio has cancelled his attendance at the meeting and the European elites are left to jabber in their echo chamber. Nothing is going to be accomplished anyway.
European political leaders seem intent on keeping the war going for as long as possible while threatening to deploy troops to Ukraine and escalate the conflict, possibly triggering WWIII. The ongoing narrative is that Ukraine is the “first domino” in a series of dominoes that could come crashing down across Europe if the Russians are allowed any form of victory. In other words, it’s the Vietnam argument all over again – If the Russians get the Donbas, then they will want all of Ukraine, and then they will want all of Europe and the world.
The economic and military weakness shown by European governments in the past year might very well tempt such an invasion, but it’s highly unlikely that Russia is interested nor has Putin ever made such a threat.
The greater question is, should the US remain involved? Are JD Vance and Trump correct in their position that walking away might be the superior option? Or is this simply a negotiation tactic to force Ukraine to accept a realistic settlement?
It’s clear that no matter what the US does the Europeans are going to do everything in their power to sabotage a formal peace agreement. It was Europe (Boris Johnson and others) that reportedly convinced Zelensky to avoid diplomatic options and continue fighting. Ukraine’s leverage has degraded to nothing since then and it’s impossible to know for now how many tens-of-thousands (or hundreds-of-thousands) have died. It’s Europe that is currently giving Zelensky false hope that troop deployments are coming and that they will make a difference in the end.
Ukraine is never getting the Donbas back and there is no scenario in which military victory is viable, for Europe or Ukraine. But, if the goal is to start a World War, then it makes sense to continue pushing for liberation of Russian holdings like Crimea. Trump is continually criticized for pointing out the obvious: That Ukraine has lost the war and needs to make concessions. Peace negotiations must take the facts on the ground into account.
In any case, the US avoiding involvement sounds like the smart option. Unless Trump can find a way to keep European interference out of the equation there is little hope for an end to the fighting. On the bright side, reopening talks with Russia could help ease the greater global instability that is simmering. And, leaving Ukraine to their own devices for a time might help them to realize European globalists do not have their best interests at heart. Then again, not being involved means those same globalists will have free rein to influence the war as they please.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/26/2025 – 10:30
