Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales And Nonstop Fed Speakers

With markets euphoric over the US-China trade war truce, which in turn has made all economic data meaningless as all recent and upcoming data reports will have to be viewed on a pro forma basis, one which no longer reflect the post-truce world, one can discount the key macro events on deck this week, which are the CPI report on Tuesday, the retail sales report on Thursday, and the University of Michigan report on Friday. 

There are also several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech on the Fed’s framework review by Chair Powell on Thursday. Still, the market will need catalysts to kneejerk to, so let’s go over the week’s macro agenda.

Looking into the main US upcoming data in more detail, for US CPI tomorrow, DB expect the headline (+0.26% forecast vs. -0.05% previous) number to be slightly below that of core (+0.29% vs. +0.06%) with consensus for both at 0.3%. Both DB and consensus expect the YoY rate to remain unchanged at 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. One of the main reasons the economists are expecting a firm core goods print is due to strong gains in vehicle prices after robust new vehicle sales in recent months. The risk to this month though is that dealers refrained from price rises in April knowing that with tariffs coming they will have to raise them soon. So we know auto price rises are coming but it may not be April.

Indeed, as DB’s Jim Reid writes, April overall may be too early for tariff price rises to show up – especially now that tariffs with China have been pushed back – but the bank’s economists advise looking out for any early signs in some of the import-heavy categories such as apparel and household furnishings and supplies. 

In addition food prices could be another place to look for any early signs of the tariffs that went into place in February. The effects from the washing machine tariffs in early 2018 took about two months to start showing up in the CPI data.

For PPI on Thursday, DB and the consensus expect a 0.3% monthly print on headline and core but we’ll pay more attention to the components that feed into core PCE as usual. Retail sales on the same day will be the other big release of the week: here economists expect slight dips in auto sales and gasoline prices to weigh on headline (unch. vs. +1.5%) and ex-autos (+0.2% vs. +0.6%) sales. However they expect retail control (+0.4% vs. +0.4%), which feeds into GDP, to remain solid. The potential curveball is if consumers have front loaded purchases ahead of tariffs and we get strong data. 

Thursday is a busy day as Powell speaks and this will provide him with an opportunity to comment on the data if he’s sees anything meaningful within it. So one to watch especially given that Powell said last week that “we don’t know which way this is going to shake out”.

Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 12

• Data: US April federal budget balance, Japan March BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, April bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, Denmark April CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Kugler speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor and Mann speak
• Earnings: UniCredit, Petroleo Brasileiro

Tuesday May 13

• Data: US April CPI, NFIB small business optimism, UK March average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, April jobless claims change, Japan April M2, M3, Germany May Zew survey, March current account balance, Eurozone May Zew survey
• Central banks: BoJ’s summary of opinions from April meeting, ECB’s Escriva, Knot and Makhlouf speak, BoE’s Governor Bailey and Pill speak
• Earnings: Munich Re, Sea, JD.com, Bayer, Venture Global, On Holding

Wednesday May 14

• Data: Japan April PPI, Canada March building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller, Jefferson and Daly speak, ECB’s Nagel and Holzmann speak, BoE’s Breeden speaks
• Earnings: Tencent, Cisco, Sony, E.ON, Coreweave, RENK, Burberry

Thursday May 15

• Data: US April PPI, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, March business inventories, initial jobless claims, UK Q1 GDP, Japan April machine tool orders, Germany April wholesale price index, Italy March general government debt, Eurozone Q1 employment, March industrial production, Canada April housing starts, existing home sales, March manufacturing sales, Australia April labour report, Norway Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Chair Powell and Barr speak, ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson, Guindos and Villeroy speak, BoE’s Dhingra speaks
• Earnings: Walmart, Alibaba, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, Mitsubishi UFJ, Deere, Applied Materials, National Grid, 3i Group, Engie, Take-Two, RWE, Cava

Friday May 16

• Data: US May University of Michigan survey, New York Fed services business activity, April building permits, housing starts, import and export price indices, March total net TIC flows, Japan Q1 GDP, March capacity utilisation, Italy March trade balance, Eurozone March trade balance, Canada March international securities transactions
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks, BoJ’s Nakamura speaks, ECB’s Lane speaks, BoE’s Lombardelli speaks
• Earnings: Cie Financiere Richemont
• Other: European Commission Spring Economic Forecasts

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Tuesday, the retail sales report on Thursday, and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech on the Fed’s framework review by Chair Powell on Thursday.

Monday, May 12

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 10:25 AM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium in Dublin. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 2, Kugler said, “Given the recent lack of progress on inflation, recent increases in inflation expectations, and upside risks associated with announced and prospective policy changes… I will support maintaining the current policy rate for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue, while economic activity and employment remain stable.”

Tuesday, May 13

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, April (consensus 95.0, last 97.4)
• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.31%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); Core CPI (MoM), April (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); CPI (YoY), April (GS +2.42%, consensus +2.4%, last +2.4%); Core CPI (YoY), April (GS +2.83%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.8%): We estimate a 0.30% increase in April core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged on a rounded basis at 2.8%. Our forecast reflects a decline in used car prices (-0.5%) reflecting a decline in auction prices, a slight increase in new car prices (+0.1%) reflecting a decline in incentives, and a large increase in the car insurance category (+0.7%) based on premiums in our online dataset. We have penciled in moderate upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as apparel, recreation, and communication) worth +0.06pp on core inflation. We expect the shelter components to decelerate on net after last month’s pick up (OER +0.28% vs. +0.40% in March; primary rent +0.29% vs. +0.33%) but expect a slight rebound in the lodging away from home component after last month’s sharp decline (+0.5%). The source data for the health insurance component is updated semiannually with the April and October reports. We expect this update to result in negative health insurance inflation over the next six months (we forecast -0.5% for April). We estimate a 0.31% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.3%) and energy (+0.4%) prices.

Wednesday, May 14

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 05:15 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on central bank research at an event in Rabat, Morocco. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On April 14, Waller said, “While I expect the inflationary effects of higher tariffs to be temporary, their effects on output and employment could be longer-lasting and an important factor in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy.” He also added, “If the slowdown is significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the FOMC’s policy rate sooner, and to a greater extent than I had previously thought.”
• 09:10 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson will give a speech on the economic outlook at a virtual event. Speech text is expected. On April 3, Jefferson said, “In my view, there is no need to be in a hurry to make further policy rate adjustments. The current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.”
• 05:40 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a fireside chat at the California Bankers Association’s 2025 Annual Conference & Directors Forum. Q&A is expected. On April 9, Daly said, “We’ve got policy in a very good place right now… with growth good and policy in a good place, we have the time and ability to tread slowly and carefully.”

Thursday, May 15

• 08:30 AM Empire state manufacturing survey, May (consensus -8.0, last -8.1)
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, April (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +1.5%); Retail sales ex-auto, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%); Core retail sales, April (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%): We estimate core retail sales expanded 0.4% in April (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a boost from consumers frontloading purchases ahead of tariffs. We estimate unchanged headline retail sales, reflecting lower auto sales and gasoline prices.
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, April (GS +0.3%, last +0.1%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 19 (GS 223k, consensus 230k, last 228k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 12 (consensus 1,890k, last 1,879k)
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS -15.0, consensus -10.5, last -26.4)
• 08:40 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give remarks on the framework review at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference. The conference will focus on discussing the central bank’s monetary policy framework review. Speech text is expected. During the FOMC press conference on May 7, Powell said about twelve times that monetary policy is in a good place and the FOMC can wait and see how the economy evolves for now. He noted that both trade policy and its economic effects remain uncertain, and he reiterated that tariffs could put the two sides of the Fed’s dual mandate in tension. As a result, he said, “Right now there’s no need to make a choice and no real basis for doing so.”
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, April (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.3%); Manufacturing production, April (GS flat, consensus -0.2%, last +0.3%); Capacity utilization, April (GS 77.8%, consensus 77.9%, last 77.8%): We estimate industrial production increased by 0.1%, as strong natural gas and electricity production outweigh weak oil and mining production. We estimate capacity utilization remained at 77.8%.
• 02:05 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will give opening remarks at the 2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium. Speech text is expected. On May 9, Barr said, “The size and scope of the recent tariff increases are without modern precedent, we don’t know their final form, and it is too soon to know how they will affect the economy.” He also added, “I am equally concerned that tariffs will lead to higher unemployment as the economy slows, thus, the [Fed] may be in a difficult position if we were to see both rising inflation and rising unemployment.”

Friday, May 16

• 08:30 AM Housing starts, April (GS +2.0%, consensus +3.1%, last -11.4%); Building permits, April preliminary (consensus -1.2%, last +0.5%)
• 08:30 AM Import price index, April (consensus -0.3%, last -0.1%)
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, May preliminary (GS 53.2, consensus 53.0, last 52.2); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, May preliminary (GS 4.4%, last 4.4%)

Source: DB, Goldman