Key Events This Week: Payrolls, ISMs And Non-Stop Fed Talk Including Powell

Following a relatively quiet, holiday-shortened week, newsflow starts to pick up again. In terms of data this week, we have US payrolls on Friday as the main event but the US manufacturing ISM today and the services equivalent on Wednesday will also be important. We will also get various global PMIs spread across this week. You can see the main ones in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual.

The ECB rate decision on Thursday (25bps cut widely expected), and what the tone suggests going forward, will also be a big focus. The BoC meet on Wednesday (a 25bps cut also expected). May CPI prints are due in the Eurozone, Switzerland (tomorrow) and Sweden (Thursday). Broadcom, which sits just outside the Mag-7, sees their earnings on Thursday and this might give us some latest thoughts on current AI trends.

Given its payrolls week we also have JOLTS (Tuesday) and ADP (Wednesday), with jobless claims (Thursday) of added interest given we saw a small but notable increase last week. For payrolls economists expect the headline (+128k forecast vs. +177k previously) and private (+115k vs. +167k) gains to slow relative to their trailing three-month averages of 155k and 148k, respectively, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.2%. For the rest of the week ahead see the diary at the end.

DB’s economists also flag that the Senate will return to Washington DC this week to begin marking up the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”. They think it will be interesting to see if the GOP Senators are as eager to make deep cuts to clean energy tax credits and Medicaid as their House counterparts. At the same time, the latest legal developments on the trade front pose risks to tariff revenues. 

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 2

• Data : US May ISM manufacturing index, April construction spending, UK April net consumer credit, M4, Japan Q1 MoF corporate survey, Italy May manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Canada May manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Q1 GDP
• Central banks : Fed’s Powell, Waller, Logan and Goolsbee speak, BoE’s Mann speaks

Tuesday June 3

• Data : US April factory orders, JOLTS report, May total vehicle sales, China May Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan May monetary base, France April budget balance, Italy April unemployment rate, Eurozone May CPI, April unemployment rate, Switzerland May CPI
• Central banks : Fed’s Goolsbee, Cook and Logan speak, BoJ’s Ueda speaks
• Earnings : Crowdstrike, HPE, Dollar General, NIO

Wednesday June 4

• Data : US May ADP report, ISM services, UK May official reserves changes, Italy May services PMI, Canada Q1 labor productivity
• Central banks : Fed’s Bostic and Cook speak, Beige Book released, BoC decision
• Earnings : Dollar Tree

Thursday June 5

• Data : US April trade balance, initial jobless claims, China May Caixin services PMI, UK May new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan April labor cash earnings, Germany April factory orders, May construction PMI, Italy April retail sales, Eurozone April PPI, Canada April international merchandise trade, Sweden May CPI
• Central banks : Fed’s Kugler and Harker speak, ECB’s decision, BoE’s Greene and Breeden speak, DMP survey released
• Earnings : Broadcom, Lululemon

Friday June 6

• Data : US May jobs report, April consumer credit, Japan April household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany April industrial production, trade balance, France April trade balance, current account balance, industrial production, Eurozone April retail sales, Canada May jobs report
• Central banks : ECB’s Holzmann and Centeno speak

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing and services indices on Monday and Wednesday, respectively, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Chair Powell will deliver opening remarks at a conference hosted by the Fed Board on Monday

Monday, June 2

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, May final (consensus 52.3, last 52.3)
  We estimate the ISM manufacturing index increased by 0.8pt to 49.5 in May, reflecting firmer manufacturing surveys so far for May (GS manufacturing survey tracker +2.4pt to 49.5).
  10:15 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will participate in a moderated discussion with Gabe Guerra, CEO of Kleberg Bank. Audience and media Q&A are expected. On May 29th, Logan said she thought that “monetary policy is in a good place,” with “the labor market holding strong, inflation trending back to target, and risks to the FOMC’s objectives roughly balanced.” Logan also noted that “it could take quite some time to know whether the balance of risks is shifting in one direction or another.”
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.5%)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, May (GS 49.5, consensus 49.5, last 48.7):
• 12:45 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will take part in a Q&A at the Quad Cities Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review in Davenport, Iowa. On May 29th, Goolsbee noted that if “either we don’t put the tariffs in, or they reach some deals that allow us to avoid doing that, we could go back to [where] we were prior to April 2,” and that “if you have stable full employment and inflation going to target, rates can come down to where they would eventually settle.” Goolsbee observed that “if we can get the dust out of the air, I do still think that underneath there is a strong dual-mandate economy,” but that “the longer we go contemplating really big changes, … the more that fades into the background.”
• 01:00 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver opening remarks at a conference commemorating the 75th anniversary of the International Finance Division of the Fed Board. Text is expected. On May 15th, Powell said that in its 2025 monetary policy framework review, the FOMC will reconsider the language from its previous review about focusing on “shortfalls” rather than “deviations” from maximum employment and about average inflation targeting. Before that, at the press conference following the FOMC’s May meeting on May 7th, Powell said about twelve times that monetary policy is in a good place and the FOMC can wait and see how the economy evolves for now. He noted that both trade policy and its economic effects remain uncertain, and he reiterated that tariffs could put the two sides of the Fed’s dual mandate in tension. As a result, he said, “Right now there’s no need to make a choice and no real basis for doing so.”

Tuesday, June 3

• 10:00 AM Factory orders, April (GS -3.6%, consensus -3.1%, last 3.4%); Factory orders ex-transportation, April (last -0.4%); Durable goods orders, April final (consensus -6.3%, last -6.3%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, April final (consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods orders, April final (last -1.3%); Core capital goods shipments, April final (last -0.1%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, April (GS 7,200k, consensus 7,100k, last 7,192k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings were roughly unchanged at 7.2mn in April based on the signal from online job postings.
• 12:45 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will take part in a Q&A at the Corridor Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Q&A is expected.
• 01:00 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will discuss the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 03:30 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver opening remarks at a Fed Listens event. Text is expected.
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, May (GS 15.7mn, consensus 16.1mn, last 17.3mn)

Wednesday, June 4

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, May (GS +115k, consensus +110k, last +62k)
• 08:30 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) and Fed Governor Cook speak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Lisa Cook will moderate a roundtable conversation at a Fed Listens event.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, May final (consensus 52.3, last 52.3)
  We estimate that the ISM services index increased by 0.4pt to 52.0 in May, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+1.0pt to 50.3 in May).
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, May (GS 49.8, consensus 52.1, last 51.6):
• 02:00 PM Beige Book, June meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the May FOMC meeting period noted that economic activity was roughly unchanged since March, with five districts reporting “slight growth,” three districts reporting “relatively unchanged” activity, and the other four districts reporting “slight to modest declines” in activity. The Beige Book noted that the economic outlook had “worsened considerably” for “several” districts because of higher uncertainty, partly as a result of changes to trade policy. The Fed noted that the report was based on information collected on or before April 14th, 2025, after the reciprocal tariffs pause but before the pause in US-China tariff increases on May 12th. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to changes in expectations and the outlook as a result of the recent reductions in tariffs.

Thursday, June 5

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, April (GS -$64.0bn, consensus -$66.5bn, last -$140.5bn): We forecast that trade deficit narrowed from $140.5bn to $64.0bn in April, reflecting a sharp decline in the goods trade deficit and a rebound in travel services exports.
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 final (GS -0.7%, consensus -0.8%, last -0.8%): Unit labor costs, Q1 final (GS +6.1%, consensus +5.7%, last +5.7%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 31 (GS 235k, consensus 235k, last 240k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 24 (consensus 1,906k, last 1,919k)
• 12:00 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of New York. Text and Q&A are expected. On May 12th, Kugler said that “trade policies are evolving and are likely to continue shifting,” but noted that they nevertheless “appear likely to generate significant economic effects even if tariffs stay close to the currently announced levels.”
• 01:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks:  Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will deliver remarks on the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Philadelphia Fed. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 01:30 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will deliver a speech on banking policy at an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed. Text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, June 6

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, May (GS +125k, consensus +125k, last +177k); Private payroll employment, May (GS +115k, consensus +110k, last +167k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Unemployment rate, May (GS 4.2%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 125k in May. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a solid pace of job creation. On the negative side, we expect another modest increase in government payrolls (GS forecast 10k vs. 13k on average so far this year), reflecting a 10k decline in federal government payrolls that partly offsets a 20k increase in state and local government payrolls. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% on a rounded basis. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting neutral calendar effects.

Source: DB, Goldman