A senior official in Israel’s cybersecurity agency who was arrested in a child sex sting in August has been indicted by a Clark County grand jury on Friday, six weeks after he was mysteriously allowed to flee the United States back to Israel.

Tom Alexandrovich, who helps guide Israel’s cybersecurity policy, was representing Israel at Black Hat USA, a professional conference in Las Vegas, when he was one of seven people swept up in a major, multi-agency sting operation targeting pedophiles soliciting sex acts with minors. According to court records, on Aug 6, the 38-year-old Alexandrovich allegedly committed the felony offense of using computer technology in an attempt to lure a child into sexual abuse. That particular crime encompasses children under 16. The next day, he posted a $10,000 bond at the Henderson Detention Center and fled the fucking country. 

Online court records show that Alexandrovich is expected to appear on Oct. 15 for an initial arraignment, and is being represented by Las Vegas-based defense attorney David Chesnoff – who President Trump appointed to a position on the Homeland Security Advisory Council. 

Why is an alleged Israeli high-level government pedophile being represented by a Trump nominee? Chesnoff also represented an Israeli dual citizen who pleaded guilty to lying about the Bidens taking a $5 million bribe from Burisma. Really weird. 

In any event, according to the indictment, Alexandrovich “willfully, unlawfully and knowingly” with an undercover FBI agent, whom he believed was under 16, with the intent to “solicit, persuade or lure” them into sexual conduct through online apps such as WhatsApp and Pure, the latter of which is an app that allows users to “date, play and misbehave” anonymously. 

As the news broke six weeks ago, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reflexively denied Alexandrovich had done anything wrong, claiming that “the employee, who does not hold a diplomatic visa, was not arrested and returned to Israel as scheduled.” Subsequently confronted with court records, Israel’s Cyber Directorate said the earlier false statement “was accurate based on the information provided to us,” and that Alexandrovich is now on leave “by mutual decision.” 

As we noted at the time of his arrest, it’s not clear why or how he was allowed to return to Israel, which has a reputation as a haven for pedophiles who prey on American children. Citing a Jewish watchdog group, a 2020 CBS News report found that, in just the previous six years, more than 60 Jewish Americans who’d been accused of pedophilia had fled to Israel, taking advantage of Israel’s “Right of Return” law that lets any Jewish individual in the world enjoy instant citizenship (though they are still subject to extradition). 

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson signed an executive order Monday blocking federal immigration agents from using city-owned property for immigration enforcement operations – just one day after we learned that the city ‘waved off’ cops responding to a vehicle-ramming attack on Border Patrol agents over the weekend.

Johnson has established “ICE-free zones,” referring to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) – as part of his ‘Protecting Chicago Initiative.’

“Today, we are signing an executive order aimed at reining in this out-of-control administration,” Johnson said during a Monday press conference. “The order establishes ICE-free zones. That means that city property and unwilling private businesses will no longer serve as staging grounds for these raids.”

“The Trump administration must end the war on Chicago,” Johnson continued. “The Trump administration must end this war against Americans. The Trump administration must end its attempt to dismantle our democracy.”

Johnson has directed Chicago agencies and departments to identify spaces within the next five days that have been targeted during ICE raids and post a clear message to federal immigration officers that the city-owned property would not be used for immigration enforcement, including as a staging area, processing location or operations base. -Fox News

The move follows a Monday lawsuit from Gov. JB Pritzker attempting to block the Trump administration from deploying National Guard troops in Chicago. 

Johnson accused the “extreme right” of refusing to accept the results of the Civil War (!?) when slavery – a Democrat thing – was abolished. 

“They have repeatedly called for a rematch, but in the coming weeks, we will use this opportunity to build greater resistance. Chicagoans are clear that militarizing our troops in our city as justification to further escalate a war in Chicago will not be tolerated,” he said.

“The right wing in this country wants a rematch of the Civil War,” Johnson continued. 

BREAKING – Brandon Johnson has just illegally established “ICE-free zones” across Chicago to prevent federal agents from enforcing the law, just days after ICE was pinned down by armed rioters and Chicago PD was blocked from assisting them. pic.twitter.com/2smGLfuw24

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) October 6, 2025

Johnson said that Chicago would “not tolerate ICE agents violating our residents’ constitutional rights,” or the Trump administration’s “disregard” for state and local authority, Fox News reports. 

“With this executive order, Chicago stands firm in protecting the constitutional rights of our residents and immigrant communities and upholding our democracy,” he continued, adding “If the federal government violates this executive order, we will take them to court.” 

On Sunday, Pritzker said that he would refuse to comply with the Trump administration’s “ultimatum” to deploy Illinois National Guard troops – calling it “absolutely outrageous and unamerican.” 

“We must now start calling this what it is: Trump’s invasion,” Pritzker continued. 

After Pritzker refused to deploy Illinois troops, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott authorized Trump to use 400 Texas National Guard members for deployment in Illinois and Oregon. 

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and its partners have arrested 8,629 individuals across the United States as part of its “Summer Heat” campaign, the agency said in an Oct. 2 statement.

More than 6,500 out of the 8,629 arrests fell under the FBI’s Violent Crime and Gang program, said the agency.

“We are not messing around,” said FBI Director Kash Patel. “Our No. 1 mission is crushing violent crime. If you hurt a child, we’re coming for you. If you jack a car, we’re coming for you. If you’re polluting our neighborhoods with deadly drugs, we’re coming for you.”

Investigators looking into violent crimes against children located or identified 1,053 minor victims as part of Summer Heat. In addition, authorities have seized 2,281 weapons, 98,000 pounds of cocaine, and 928 pounds of fentanyl.

The operations took place between June 24 and Sept. 20, with all 55 FBI field offices contributing to the offensive, the FBI said.

In one operation, the agency targeted violent offenders in four cities—Baton Rouge and New Orleans in Louisiana; Memphis in Tennessee; and Miami in Florida—leading to the arrests of 417 individuals and seizing 159 firearms.

“We are grateful for Director Kash Patel and our brave FBI agents who removed more than 8,600 violent offenders from our streets this summer,” said Attorney General Pamela Bondi.

“Under President [Donald] Trump’s directive to make America safe again, this Department of Justice will continue prosecuting violent crime and dismantling criminal gangs who are wreaking havoc in our communities.”

In an Oct. 3 statement, FBI Dallas said it captured several criminals over the past three months, which included the arrests of Ten Most Wanted Fugitive Cindy Rodriguez Singh and Cesar Pascual Orozco.

“Under Operation Summer Heat, FBI Dallas collaborated with our law enforcement partners to apprehend fugitives, seize drugs and firearms, and arrest child predators. We remain committed to protecting our North Texas communities from violent crime,” said FBI Dallas Special Agent in Charge R. Joseph Rothrock.

The FBI’s stats come as the Trump administration has taken numerous steps to tackle violent crime in various American cities.

In August, Trump federalized D.C.’s policing. On Sept. 9, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that law enforcement had arrested 2,177 individuals in the nation’s capital since then.

Trump has also ordered federal agents to assist state and local officials in Tennessee, with the federal crackdown leading to 153 arrests in Memphis in four days since Monday.

Meanwhile, Trump signed a memorandum on Sept. 25, ordering the attorney general to fully implement the death penalty in the District of Columbia.

In a Sept. 25 statement, Free DC, a movement for self-determination rights in Washington, criticized the measure and accused Trump of wanting to “spread fear” via the death penalty decision.

“His actions are not about safety, they are only about him consolidating power,” Free DC said.

“This is yet another reminder that D.C. needs full power over our justice system—permanently. We need statehood now. Not tomorrow, not in four years. Now.”

The administration is also cracking down on illegal immigrant crimes. On Oct. 3, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced the arrests of more than 1,000 illegal immigrants under Operation Midway Blitz, which targets illegal immigrant criminals in Illinois.

The agency said the arrested individuals include the “worst of the worst,” such as child abusers, pedophiles, gang members, and kidnappers.

“President Trump and Secretary Kristi Noem will not allow continued violence or repeat offenders to terrorize our neighborhoods and victimize our children,” said DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin. “Operation Midway Blitz is making Illinois safe again.”

A group of 550 Hollywood celebrities led by Jane Fonda (Hanoi Jane) have announced – after a decade canceling conservatives within their industry –  that they are resurrecting a Soviet era celebrity organization called the “Committee for the First Amendment” to “defend the constitutional rights” of actors and public figures from the entertainment industry. 

Laughs in Gina Carino and James Woods…

The announcement was partially inspired by the short-lived cancellation of the Jimmy Kimmel Live! show, after Kimmel spread false information on Charlie Kirk assassination suspect Tyler Robinson.  Kimmel seemed to assert that Robinson was MAGA, a lie which was being spread widely on social media by the political left in order to deflect from clear evidence that Robinson is an LGBT leftist and Antifa sympathizer. 

Democrats asserted that Kimmel was being “silenced” by the Trump Administration, a violation of his First Amendment rights.  However, the cancellation had nothing to do with Trump.  When affiliates Nexstar and Sinclair threatened to drop Kimmel’s broadcasts, ABC brought the late night show to a halt.  Compare this to censorship during the Biden era, when Democrat leaders directly pressured social media companies to silence conservatives.

Jane Fonda: “No president has ever sent troops into the Democratic cities across the country saying full force. He is amassing power in a way that will destroy our democracy.“ pic.twitter.com/skKKSqCY9y

— Marco Foster (@MarcoFoster_) October 5, 2025

Juxtapose this flowery sentiment of peace with Jane Fonda’s previous hot takes on conservatives.  The real communist revolutionary mind rises to the surface in unguarded moments:

Kimmel’s show returned after one week due to pressure from Democrats.  Democrat leaders are comparing the event to the “Red Scare” of the McCarthy Era, suggesting that Trump and Republicans are trying to shut down free speech.  To be clear, Kimmel was never censored by the government and no one has a constitutional right to a late night talk show.  Fonda argues:

“The federal government is once again engaged in a coordinated campaign to silence critics in the government, the media, the judiciary, academia, and the entertainment industry.”

In a letter published by the committee, they argue that the McCarthy era has returned:

“This Committee was initially created during the McCarthy Era, a dark time when the federal government repressed and persecuted American citizens for their political beliefs. They targeted elected officials, government employees, academics, and artists. They were blacklisted, harassed, silenced, and even imprisoned. The McCarthy Era ended when Americans from across the political spectrum finally came together and stood up for the principles in the Constitution against the forces of repression.”

“Those forces have returned. And it is our turn to stand together in defense of our constitutional rights…”

What Jane Fonda and friends don’t mention is that the Hollywood actors were rightly persecuted for their political beliefs.  Most of the people accused of being communist sympathizers were, in fact, communists working to further the dismantling of the western world.

Young Americans today are thoroughly indoctrinated by public schools, colleges and the media to believe that the “Red Scare” of the McCarthy Era was a witch hunt built on hysteria and paranoia.  Joseph McCarthy is often portrayed as a lunatic and a fear monger who used the “communist bogeyman” as a way to grow government power and silence detractors.  

As future declassified documents would eventually prove, nothing could be further from the truth.

Senator McCarthy was right and his accusations were largely accurate – Communist funded groups and subversive agents had infiltrated almost every aspect of American society from entertainment to education to industry.  The revelation was so shocking that it was ultimately covered up for decades and McCarthy became a pariah instead of a hero. 

In the 1990s, documents finally released through the Freedom of Information Act revealed Project Verona, a secret program launched in 1943 which eventually led to the breaking of Soviet encryption methods.  The information gathered from the communist regime was extensive and uncovered vast networks of Soviet spies and sympathizers working against the west. 

Though McCarthy did not have direct access to Verona, he operated on intel from Verona through FBI briefings, which most Americans at the time were not privy to.  In other words, he saw the evidence that average Americans did not get to see.  To this day, leftist journalists and academics continue to lie about McCarthy, claiming that the Verona papers “don’t vindicate his legacy” or his efforts to stop communist infiltration.

The most widely publicized aspects of the Red Scare involved Hollywood and the subversion of American media.  As we have seen in recent years, there is undeniable Marxist control over the majority of US entertainment. If it was hidden before, it certainly isn’t hidden now.  

Jane Fonda’s father, Henry Fonda, formed the original Committee for the First Amendment to protect the “Hollywood Ten”, a group of highly influential celebrities, writers, directors and producers who were accused of being members of the communist party and receiving funding from the Soviet Union.  As it turned out, eight of the ten people were confirmed communist party members.  The other two are less definitive but still suspected.

The CPUSA received extensive funding from the Soviet Union and these Hollywood notables were members of the CPUSA.  By extension, the Committee for the First Amendment included the Hollywood Ten in their membership.  After the group was unmasked, actors like Humphrey Bogart who initially defended them decided to disavow them.  The committee lasted only 6 months.

The new committee is a different animal in that it is openly woke (communist), but designed to fear monger over censorship that doesn’t exist.  Its goal appears to be the protection of purveyors of far-left propaganda from valid scrutiny.  One might wonder if the US could have avoided the mess it is in today if only people had listened to McCarthy decades ago?

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A total of 249,152 individual Chapter 7 bankruptcy filings were made in the first nine months of this year in the United States, which is a 15 percent jump compared to the same period last year, the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) said in an Oct. 3 statement.

Chapter 7 bankruptcy, also known as liquidation bankruptcy, involves a court-appointed trustee selling off an individual’s nonexempt assets to pay off creditors. It can discharge certain debts, with the individual no longer obliged to pay them.

This is different from a Chapter 13 bankruptcy, where an individual retains all assets, but has to agree on a repayment plan with creditors that can last for three to five years.

There were 149,337 individual Chapter 13 bankruptcy filings made during the first nine months of 2025, up 4 percent from the same period in 2024, ABI said.

Total individual bankruptcy filings rose 11 percent during this period, it added.

The sharp rise highlights mounting financial pressure on households, Michael Hunter, vice president of bankruptcy data provider Epiq AACER, said in the ABI statement.

“The growth in active Chapter 13 case inventory suggests more consumers are turning to bankruptcy as a necessary financial reset. We expect this upward trend to continue, with a strong likelihood of accelerating into 2026.”

There are also growing concerns about rising credit stress among Americans.

In a Sept. 24 statement, financial services company VantageScore stated that credit delinquencies rose across nearly all credit tiers and delinquency categories in August, year-over-year.

“For example, the increase in auto loan and personal loan credit delinquencies likely reflects, in part, the compounding effects of sustained inflation, consistently elevated interest rates, higher borrowing costs, and an unsteady employment picture,” said Susan Fahy, EVP and Chief Digital Officer at VantageScore.

However, the economic numbers have fared better in recent times. The inflation rate has remained between 2.3 and 3 percent since June last year, accompanied by a steady job market, which has contributed to stabilizing the economy.

The number of job openings in the United States rose by 19,000 in August to 7.27 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s Sept. 30 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report.

A Sept. 30 research report by job site Indeed characterized the labor market as a “low firing, low hiring, low churn” one.

“Limited layoffs have been a reassuring constant in the face of mounting volatility elsewhere in the economy, and the relative stability for those workers who already have a job has helped keep spending steady,” according to the report.

On the flip side, “for people seeking a job who are on the outside looking in, a lack of dynamism in the market is keeping their options limited.”

Overall Economic Optimism

Meanwhile, commercial bankruptcy filings also rose in the first nine months of 2025, ABI said in its statement.

Overall, commercial filings were up 4 percent year-over-year, with small business filings rising by 6 percent.

“With household debts climbing, lending terms tightening and geopolitical uncertainty creating challenges within supply chains, bankruptcies continue their ascent toward pre-pandemic levels,” said ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss.

“Families or businesses overwhelmed by growing debt loads have a financial lifeline through the bankruptcy process.”

Despite the growth in commercial bankruptcy filings, optimism among small businesses improved in August, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said in a Sept. 9 statement. NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in August to hit 100.8.

“Optimism increased slightly in August with more owners reporting stronger sales expectations and improved earnings,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said.

“While owners have cited an improvement in overall business health, labor quality remained the top issue on Main Street.”

The Trump administration has taken steps to assuage the challenges faced by businesses. On Sept. 30, the Small Business Administration (SBA) announced that President Donald Trump delivered “record capital” to small businesses in fiscal year 2025.

The agency guaranteed 84,400 small business loans for $44.8 billion during the 2025 fiscal year, with the majority of them approved after Trump assumed office in January, it said. These loans were under SBA’s 7(a) and 504 loan programs.

“With record loan volume, both borrowers and lenders are sending a clear signal that America First means America is growing again.”

The S&P 500 stock index has reflected the positive sentiment among investors in the economy and is currently hitting all-time highs. The index has risen nearly 39 percent from its April low as of Friday.

Businesses have also been more successful in securing contracts with foreign government buyers. In the first nine months under the Trump administration, American businesses have signed 98 such contracts valued at a “record” $170 billion, the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration said in a Sept. 30 statement.

Update (1240ET): 

France’s former finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, who was appointed head of the Ministry of the Armed Forces on Sunday, announced his resignation less than 24 hours after taking the job, amid ongoing political turmoil that rattled stocks and bonds in Paris on Monday. 

Bloomberg noted, “President Emmanuel Macron’s decision late Sunday to return Le Maire to a ministerial post, in charge of defense, sparked a political backlash, including from within the administration.” 

By Monday evening, Le Maire wrote on X that President Macron accepted his resignation and expressed hope that his departure would help efforts to form a new government, reaffirming his ongoing commitment to serving France and the public interest:

My decision to join the government was taken solely out of a sense of duty, in grave geopolitical circumstances, to serve France and the French people.

I note that my decision is provoking incomprehensible, false, and disproportionate reactions in some quarters.

No individual situation must block the proper functioning of the country and our institutions.

Under these conditions, I proposed to the President of the Republic at the end of the morning to withdraw from the government without delay and to transfer my responsibilities as Minister of the Armed Forces to the Prime Minister.

The President of the Republic has accepted my proposal.

I hope that this decision will allow discussions to resume with a view to forming a new government, which France needs.

My commitment to serving France and the French people will always be guided by concern for the general interest and the State.

Ma décision de rejoindre le gouvernement a été prise uniquement par esprit de mission, dans des circonstances géopolitiques graves, pour servir la France et les Français.

Je constate que ma décision provoque chez certains des réactions incompréhensibles, fausses et…

— Bruno Le Maire (@BrunoLeMaire) October 6, 2025

Earlier, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau criticized the decision to reinstate one of Macron’s close friends, arguing that appointing Le Maire, who had served as finance minister for seven years, did not represent a viable path forward. 

Political turmoil erupted early Monday when French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned, citing the inability of political parties to reach a compromise, saying that “each party wanted the other to adopt its entire program.”

Commenting on the political turmoil and its spillover effects in local equity and bond markets, UBS analyst Matthew Cowley provided clients with an overview of the situation, potential pathways for Macron, and related trade ideas.

UBS economist Felix Hüfner highlights heightened political instability in France following Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s resignation, just weeks into his tenure. President Macron faces three scenarios: appointing a new PM, dissolving parliament for legislative elections, or even calling an early presidential election—though the latter remains unlikely.

UBS sees scenario one as most probable, but election risks have increased, impacting investor sentiment. Prolonged uncertainty could delay the 2026 budget and weigh on growth, with household savings already at a four-year high.

UBS retains its short 10y France vs EUR swaps strategy, citing elevated election risk and potential downgrades by Moody’s and S&P. Investors may find opportunities if 30y France yields rise above 4.50%, with France’s constitutional safeguards ensuring budget continuity. Watch for key announcements from Macron and upcoming rating reviews later this month.

More commentary:

The crisis in France is about 3 things: (i) a political center that’s desperately trying to keep right-wing populism out of gov’t; (ii) broken Euro zone fiscal incentives that enable bad policy; (iii) a global rise in debt post-COVID. Long-term yields are up sharply everywhere… pic.twitter.com/TfIEohKE7z

— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) October 6, 2025

Wonder what Brigitte Macron is up to at the moment. Here’s a look back at earlier this year…

🚨 Noway did Brigitte Macron just punch Emmanuel Macron live on camera as they landed in Vietnam.

Two Men representing France fighting upon arrival is not the best look. pic.twitter.com/igl6RLtB9o

— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) May 26, 2025

Hmm.

Over the weekend, both Czechs and Japan elected their own version of Trump, while the Macron establishment regime imploded for good

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 6, 2025

*   *   * 

*  *  *

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu abruptly resigned on Monday morning, just three weeks after his appointment, preempting what appeared to be an inevitable ousting. Lecornu was expected to unveil his policy agenda before the National Assembly on Tuesday, but both the Socialist Party and the National Rally had warned that without a drastic policy shift, they would trigger a no-confidence vote. French bonds and stocks slumped on the emerging political crisis. 

President Emmanuel Macron’s office issued a one-sentence statement, confirming that Macron had accepted the resignation of Lecornu. This comes amid turmoil over the composition of his cabinet, a coalition of centrists and conservatives. 

Lecornu told reporters his resignation was primarily due to the inability to compromise across the political spectrum: “I was ready to compromise, but each political party wanted the other political party to adopt its entire program.”

He told reporters in the courtyard of the Matignon Palace, the prime minister’s headquarters, that he had spent weeks trying to forge a viable path forward with politicians, unions, and social partners from both political sides, but had achieved no breakthroughs. 

Jean Garrigues, one of France’s top political historians, told local media that Macron will likely be forced to dissolve the National Assembly once again. 

“A fresh dissolution might lead to an increase of seats for the National Rally in the lower house, but it’s unlikely that they’ll get an outright majority,” Garrigues stated in the interview. 

UBS analyst Simon Penn provided clients with the three possible pathways for Macron to move forward: 

1. He can try another technocrat type

2. He can call a general election

3. He can quit and call a full presidential election

The Bloomberg Economics team provided readers with the visualization. 

Penn warned that France is entering a dangerous political environment:

French PM Lecornu has resigned less than a month after he was appointed (Sept. 9). On face value Lecornu looks to have quit before he was forced out. He was due to present his policy proposals to the National Assembly on Tuesday, but leaders of the Socialist and National Rally had already warned that unless there was a total change in direction they would call a vote of no confidence immediately after Lecornu stopped speaking.

Furthermore, the press and public reaction to the appointment of a near unchanged cabinet from the Bayrou administration has been somewhat scornful. President Macron has attempted three times to try for the same policies and failed three times. As the famous quote from Jean-Claude Juncker goes: “We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”

The latest failure puts French politics into very dangerous territory – more so than the markets seem to be pricing. The lessons of the UK in the 1970s are worth bearing in mind – a government in the early 70s attempting what today would be described as austerity; failing and being replaced by socialist policy, that today might be described as populist. It took mass strikes, power blackouts and an IMF bailout before UK voters were willing to accept the necessary medicine that came in the form of the 1979 Thatcher government.

Meanwhile, across other Wall Street desks this morning, analysts are desperately trying to make sense of the political turmoil and what comes next. Barclays analysts expect parliamentary elections, adding that a Macron resignation is “unlikely.”

Political turmoil sent the CAC 40, the benchmark French stock market index, down 1.5% by early afternoon trading in Paris. French bonds also dropped. 

More market commentary from UBS analyst Justinus Steinhors: “The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 80bp, retreating from highs. Yields jump on political turmoil: in France, PM Lecornu resigns after less than four weeks in office.”

Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG in Paris, warned, “What’s new this morning is the beginning of contagion from France to the rest of the European banking sector. The drop of the sector is 100% linked to France. Given that banks have outperformed the markets so much, all the elements are aligned for some profit-taking on these stocks.”

Allianz CIO and Chief Economist Ludovic Subran told Bloomberg that it’s not the time to panic.

“I think the concern is what kind of budget France is going to get”

Allianz CIO and Chief Economist Ludovic Subran says Sebastien Lecornu’s resignation as Prime Minister is “absolutely not” a Liz Truss moment for France https://t.co/EM4CPWJ1vt pic.twitter.com/vEb8utW36h

— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) October 6, 2025

Lecornu’s resignation makes him the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, founded by Charles de Gaulle in 1958.

*  *  *

Restaurant spending has historically been among the first discretionary categories to decline when consumers experience economic hardship.

The picture now emerging is one of “lower-income consumer weakness spreading to at least middle-income consumers,” according to a team of UBS analysts led by Dennis Geiger. 

This comes after weeks of our reporting that highlights cracks in the subprime credit markets, especially following the collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings, and aligns with BofA’s Michael Hartnett, who recently echoed warnings about “credit cracks” emerging.

On Monday, Geiger told clients that industry data and management discussions with public and private restaurant chains suggest weaker demand trends will likely be reflected in upcoming third-quarter earnings results. Most troubling, according to the analyst, is that weakness appears to be spreading from low-income consumers to middle-income consumers, which only echoes our earlier reports of an emerging subprime crisis with low-end consumers. 

Here is Geiger’s report 

Industry data and mgmt discussions suggest weaker end to 3Q

Industry traffic data and our latest discussions with public & private restaurant chains suggest weaker demand trends to exit 3Q, creating risk to Consensus expectations for much of the sector. Traffic data continues to suggest a slowdown for many key brands in September, with seeming pressure on avg check often likely a result of promotional activity as well as potential customer check mgmt. Our end of quarter investor discussions with restaurant mgmt / IR teams generally highlight macro and broader industry challenges, with pressure noted across a variety of sources, often including: lower income consumer weakness which appears to be spreading to at least middle-income consumers; emergence of younger consumer spending softness; and Hispanic / immigration impacts particularly in border states. That said, several companies have appeared more confident in performance given still solid underlying demand or execution of brand specific initiatives despite the difficult macro backdrop.

Demand for value at all time high and a prerequisite in current environment

Following heightened industry value activity since mid ’24, 29% of all commercial foodservice traffic in the last 12 months was driven by deals, which is the highest rate in the last 50 years, according to a report analyzing 50 years of foodservice data from Circana. Additionally, consumer-perceived value menu traffic has increased by 2% since the beginning of ’25, while overall industry traffic has declined. Value items and promotions are key for maintaining customers, with menu innovation, service, and quality as key drivers of increasing market share. Despite the importance of value offers and perceptions, a key indicator for traffic recovery is reduced reliance on deals, with value alone not a sufficient strategy for engaging customers.

Spending at smaller restaurant chains / independents slowed in September

Consumer spending at small business restaurants increased +1.2% y/y in September, per Fiserv, slower relative to growth of +1.7% y/y in August, with foot traffic increasing +0.4% (+0.4% in August). Sales gains were largely driven by bars and pubs growth (+1.6% m/m), followed by full-service restaurants (+0.3% m/m) and QSRs (+0.1% m/m vs +2.1% m/m in Aug). Foot traffic increased slightly at full-service restaurants (+0.2% m/m), while QSR foot traffic increased 0.4% sequentially (vs +1.8% m/m in Aug), implying a ~30 bps decline in average check.

Private hospitality hiring declined in Sept; still expect moderate growth in ’25

Private leisure and hospitality hiring declined in Sept, with jobs down ~19K (vs. +10K in Aug), or down ~10 bps m/m, according to ADP employment report. As of Sept, there were ~17.6MM industry employees across leisure and hospitality, or ~1.1MM above pre-pandemic levels. Despite the sequential slowdown, industry jobs growth is still better ’25 YTD (+2.8%) than ’24 (+2.4%), and we continue to expect a modest job growth in ’25.

Investor concern w/ slowing traffic trends, with focus on headwinds & outlook

Our investor discussions last week continued to highlight concerns around slowing industry demand trends and factors contributing to the traffic pressure, as well as the outlook for what could change into ’26. Investors continue to view the restaurant sector as challenging and struggle to identify compelling long opportunities, while at the same time maintaining caution around potential shorts that could snap back. Fast casual remains the segment with the most investor attention as investors see potentially significant upside for several faster growth names if trends positively inflect. Investors are also focused on which names are best to own, with the most torque, on an eventual broader recovery in industry sales trends (WING, CMG often at the top of the list). Investors are also increasingly focused on expectations into 3Q earnings, with questions around what to own into results given a large percentage of the sector is expected to miss given recent weakness. Concerns continue around slower alt data trends in September, with the recent trajectory for many brands suggesting an early read into 4Q that Consensus expectations could prove too high.

Here is where the first cracks began to appear in the consumer credit market:

• Subprime Crisis 2.0? Red Flags Fly As Alleged Fraud Triggers Billion-Dollar Auto-Lender Bankruptcy
• “Worst Thing I’ve Ever Seen”; Trickle-Down Terror Of Tricolor Trouble Hits Alts

Then last Thursday, BofA’s Michael Hartnett chimed in where we left off, and penned in the Zeitgeist section (read here) that “these credit cracks are a big deal, but not big enough to put top in right now.“

A

And remember what Goldman’s top consumer analyst wrote at the end of last month…

These emerging cracks in the consumer space are alarming, given that personal consumption expenditures account for 68% to 70% of U.S. GDP. Time for deeper interest rate cuts, Mr. Powell?

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

It was 8:45 a.m. and the date was Aug. 23, 2020. We were five months into the pandemic panic. The isolation and strangeness had become unbearable not only to me personally but to vast numbers. The businesses and schools were closed. Anthony Fauci of NIAID and all his media cheerleaders seemed to be the only narrative around.

Everyone was waiting for something. One day rolled into the next, marked by unbearable repetition, each turn of the clock nearly indistinguishable from the last one and the next one. Everyone seemed to be waiting for something to happen but it was not clear what that was.

I had been writing about pandemic planning for 15 years and knew that what was going on was a grave error. Indeed, from January 2020 I had warned that some people imagined that the way to battle a virus was through an elaborate duck-and-cover ritual that contradicted the whole history of public health. By mid-March, 2020, the experiment was on, and the world economy was being strangled.

The usual proponents of free enterprise and civil liberties fell silent. This was mostly for reasons of career protection. It was obvious at the time what everyone was supposed to say: listen to the science, we are all in this together, wear your mask, don’t do your own research, stop longing for your “freedumb.” Most everyone in the professional classes went along, partially because so many people enjoyed working from home and receiving vast sums from the government dropped directly in their bank accounts.

Desperate for allies in this struggle, I happened to notice a professor at Harvard was posting some sensible things. Not sure why this particular post made it through the censors but it did and I read it. I was thrilled, and decided to try my luck. That early morning, I dropped him a note on Twitter direct messaging. I invited him for dinner. He accepted.

That was the beginning of a long friendship that continues to this day. But it was also the beginning of the hardest years of our lives. Martin Kulldorff and I visited each other and I learned from him: about public health principles, natural immunity, the normal course of respiratory infection waves, how to deal with the many features of such pathogens, and so on.

It was Martin’s idea to broaden the discussion. What if we invite a group of top journalists in and offer some expert commentary? This would surely help improve their reporting. Maybe then they would stop simply echoing the crazy claims coming from the CDC and NIH. That struck me as a good idea, so I went to work on logistics. The deadline was tight: two weeks.

The problems began immediately. Not a single reporter responded to my invitation. I could not understand why. Three of the world’s top epidemiologists—Martin plus Jay Bhattacharya (now directing the NIH) and Sunetra Gupta—were coming together for their benefit. Why were they not interested in learning more about the subject they were covering for TV and newspapers?

The gathering took place anyway. I managed to get three journalists there. One was John Tamny of RealClearMarkets. Another was independent writer and researcher David Zweig. The third was a stringer for the British Medical Journal who wore a mask during the entire event and never left the room without dousing herself with hand sanitizer. I got as many warm bodies in that room as possible, if only to make the event seem less like a waste of time.

The scientists were brilliant of course. They explained epidemiological basics, such as the tradeoff pathogenic prevalence against its severity subject to latency. We learned about spread and therapeutics. They discussed the features of SARS-CoV-2, especially its huge spread in fatalities between young and old, a thousand-fold difference. It’s the older people about whom we should be worrying. We talked about the meaning of herd immunity and the means by which pathogenic endemicity would arrive in time.

The meeting came and went and we all wondered what was next. It was the scientists’ idea to write a short document centered on the principles of public health. They got busy and it was finished in one evening. The Great Barrington Declaration was born. It was signed the next day. But even then, there was the question of what came next. They had the idea of putting it online. Lou Eastman, who now works for Brownstone Institute, got busy. We snagged a domain and he built the entire site overnight.

We were open for signatories the following morning. We worked so fast that we hadn’t really prepared for the onslaught of names who signed much less the aggressive trolls who bypassed the verification system yet to be built. As soon as some fake names got through, the media lit up with attacks suggesting that the entire effort was a tissue of lies signed by fake names. We hardly slept for the weeks following as we kept up with the media onslaught, none of which we had expected.

Later it turned out that the document had gotten the attention of NIH head Francis Collins and Fauci. They had ordered a “quick and devastating takedown” of this document written by “fringe epidemiologists.” This helped make sense of the slew of articles that had appeared that told everyone not to believe anything in the declaration. It was an information war. It just so happened that we had bypassed the censors and had reached people with some sensible points in a sea of fallacy.

The very name of the document scandalized the city council of Great Barrington itself. They wrote a certified letter that called us all terrible names. We were immoral. We were anti-science. We were ruining the name of the town, exploiting its residents and attracting the wrong kind of visitors. And so on. I read it quickly and laughed, tossing it aside. Now I wished I had kept it. It would be worth something on eBay.

Only much later did I come to realize the reason this document triggered the establishment so hard. It wasn’t because it opposed lockdowns. It was because it offered the hope of getting through the conditions of pandemic through exposure and recovery, i.e. the upgrading of the immune system through natural immunity. The industry had a product to sell, one they called a vaccine, and this document was ruining their plans. After all, they had kept most of the world population locked down for fully 8 months; they wanted the shots to be the only pathway out.

Most people today will grant that the Great Barrington Declaration was completely correct. We did get through the period of pain the usual way. Everyone got the virus. Most everyone recovered. The lockdowns, the masking, the mandatory separation, the attacks on free speech and religious liberty, the crazed efforts at compliance, and the forced potion injections all did grave damage.

Meanwhile, the craziness of the times caused mass confusion over what exactly happened. The terms “case,” “infection,” and “exposure” got all mixed up so that we didn’t actually know what was what. The inaccuracies of the PCR tests created the illusion of knowledge without the reality. And the vast government subsidies for COVID deaths caused widespread misclassification. To this day, we do not actually know how many people died from COVID. Most of the charts are useless from an epidemiological point of view.

There are many lessons to draw, mostly related to how effective the statement was. Sometimes you just have to say what is true, even when it proves professionally costly. This was one of those times, and the three scientists who did this deserve eternal credit. Speaking strategically, it taught me something else: the best way to beat fake science is with real science. That’s hitting the bad guys where they are most vulnerable.

Five years later, I feel great gratitude for having been part of this effort. Those were the most painful years of our lives. We all have stories to tell. We should tell them. And remember the lessons, as we continue the research into precisely who or what was behind this calamity. The Great Barrington Declaration was, above all else, an act of profound moral courage. Even now, this is what makes a difference.

Five weeks ago, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller announced that there was an ongoing DOJ investigation into whether Washington D.C. officials manipulated crime statistics – calling it a “massive scandal.” 

Specifically, Miller said:

“There’s even accusations that murders and homicides were reported as accidents.“

See 55 second mark:

BREAKING: Stephen Miller just said that the DOJ is working on exposing how Democrat controlled cities have been MANIPULATING crime data!

“When we ultimately share the results, it will STUN you!”

“There are even accusations that m*rders and homIcides were reported as accidents… pic.twitter.com/izRxYynIRz

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) August 25, 2025

One day after Miller’s late-August announcement, National Police Association spox Betsy Smith told ABC4 News in a little-noticed report that “Commanders and supervisors were having the initial responding officers write the report differently than what they were called to, or different than what they physically saw on the scene.“

And while the DC Police Department has been run by Democrats for decades – frustrated cops have been talking to the DOJ and have receipts, presented with a bow by D.C. Police Union Chairman Greggory Pemberton. Read on… 

On Sunday, the Washington Post revealed internal accusations that “managers were recording serious crimes as more minor ones to make their police districts appear safer or avoid the ire of top department brass” – and that officers and supervisors ‘clashed’ over “whether an offense was a robbery or a theft, or whether a weapon used in an assault qualified as potentially deadly.”

The frustrated officers “kept lists, documenting cases where they believed a higher-up improperly classified a crime as a lesser offense,” with one noting 150 such instances in March of 2024 alone in which staff in the Southeast D.C. police district believed offenses were in appropriately classified. 

“The police department is playing fast and loose with how they report their data so that they can report favorably to the citizens about crime, and I don’t think it’s fair to the city,” said Pemberton – who’s been assisting the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans with ‘information compiled by officers.’

So, a group of pissed off cops within the DC police department have been fighting with superiors and keeping notes over misclassified crimes, and kept notes. Now they’re working with the feds to blow the lid. Or as WaPo puts it – “found a receptive audience.”

We’re sure the galaxy brains over at FactCheck.org are getting right on that correction after saying President Trump ‘wrongly’ claimed that his DC crackdown resulted in 11 days with no murders, the “first time that’s taken place in years.” They of course make no mention of the DOJ / Congressional investigation Miller announced two days earlier. 

And of course, a July report by NBC Washington that MPD District 3 Commander Michael Pulliam was suspended and placed under investigation for allegedly manipulating crime data – however Stephen Miller said it was being done “on a widespread basis” – so more than just that sacrificial lamb.

WaPo Spin

Of course this Sunday night report is all about frontrunning the DOJ release – and narrative control. Such as that it could have simply been an initial lack of evidence – writing that “Criminologists say [zh: wait for it] classifying crimes is an often subjective and evolving process: Incidents can be redefined as investigators uncover more evidence, and disagreements don’t necessarily point to corruption.” And who’s the one criminologist they cited? “Alexis Piquero, a criminologist at the University of Miami who led the Bureau of Justice Statistics during the Biden administration,” who “cautioned against jumping to conclusions that D.C. police were purposefully concealing violent crimes.”

Right, yes. 

Recall that during the 2024 election, Democrats insisted that crime had fallen under the Biden administration, contrary to your lying eyes. They smugly pointed to FBI crime stats published in 2023 by Biden’s FBI – showing that the nation’s violent crime rate had fallen in 2022 by 1.7%. Leftist pundits and academics alike used it for a collective ‘ackchyually’ whenever Trump and his allies would point out the rampant crime gripping Democrat-run cities.

Psst you still have time to delete this one, like you do most of your others. https://t.co/DoUx7FT3mp

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2025

Then, in the home stretch of the election when Trump was clearly ahead (and before Kash Patel could go ‘Ah-ha!’), the 2022 figures were revised – revealing that crime had actually increased by 4.5% in 2022. This textbook Ministry of Truth ‘correction’ was uncovered by John Lott Jr. and published Oct. 16. 

Amazing…

False reporting has been happening at a very large scale

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 5, 2025

Update (1005ET):

At the cash open, AMD shares jumped as much as 38% to new record highs following news of the OpenAI deal (see previous update for details). In fact, this intraday surge so far marks the largest share gain in nearly a decade, or about 9.5 years, dating back to the 52.3% gain on April 22, 2016.

 Record high.

Goldman analyst Peter Callahan says today is all about …

 The deal between AMD and OpenAI sent the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index up 4%, reaching a new all-time high.

Totally not a bubble… 

*   *   *

The epic “circle jerk” continues (read how this works at the end of the note )…

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices surged in premarket trading after the company announced a multi-year partnership with OpenAI to roll out next-generation AI infrastructure. The first 1-gigawatt deployment of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs is scheduled to begin in the second half of 2026.

AMD and OpenAI have signed a definitive agreement establishing AMD as a core compute partner for OpenAI.

Well, that solves it. Won’t be Intel…

AMD SHARES JUMP 16% ON CHIP DEAL WITH OPENAI

Won’t be intel

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 6, 2025

The partnership begins with the Instinct MI450 series and rack-scale AI solutions designed for data centers that power OpenAI’s chatbots.

Here’s the structure of the deal:

• Equity component: AMD granted OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares, vesting with deployment and performance milestones tied to capacity expansion (1 GW → 6 GW), AMD share-price thresholds, and OpenAI rollout goals.

AMD CFO Jean Hu said in a statement, “Our partnership with OpenAI is expected to deliver tens of billions of dollars in revenue for AMD while accelerating OpenAI’s AI infrastructure buildout,” adding, “This agreement creates significant strategic alignment and shareholder value for both AMD and OpenAI and is expected to be highly accretive to AMD’s non-GAAP earnings-per-share.”

“This partnership is a major step in building the compute capacity needed to realize AI’s full potential,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated. He noted, “AMD’s leadership in high-performance chips will enable us to accelerate progress and bring the benefits of advanced AI to everyone faster.”

AMD shares in New York jumped as much as 25%.

What this also means is that despite the now explicit backing (and investment) of the White House, Intel failed to win this deal which makes it clear who the real Alphas are in the chip space. Surprisingly, in a sign of brief market rationality, NVDA stock is actually lower this morning (we doubt it lasts) as AMD takes away tens if not hundreds of billions in future chip revenue from the world’s largest company. 

If AMD gains hold above 23.8% (April 9, 2025) through the end of the cash session, this would mark the largest daily increase since the 52.3% jump on April 22, 2016. 

Related, and a must-read (spoiler alert: some of the nation’s top data center financiers weren’t too happy we called it a “circle jerk” ): The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing “Circle Jerk”

*OPENAI SIGNS AMD CHIPS DEAL WORTH TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

it’s called a daily circle jerk because it’s daily https://t.co/ULqRYTJ8l0

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 6, 2025

. . .