Authored by Jack Ridge via BondVigilantes.com,

Fixed Income investors may find themselves shutting the curtains and hiding under the sofa this Halloween. There is much to be fearful of – deterioration of developed market fundamentals, falling labour market confidence and slowdown indicated in shipping. And that’s just the beginning!

This pumpkin spiced latte season, we take a look at seven charts which look beyond the rally we have seen in risk assets. Perhaps its not all as rosy as it appears on the surface. Maybe it is best to check under the bed for market risks…

Happy Halloween!

1. The EM-ification of DM? Investors find DM fiscal sustainability scary

Source: Bloomberg and JP Morgan. As at 30 September 2025. Indices used: JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite – Gross Return (USD Unhedged), ICE BofA Developed Markets Sovereign Bond (USD Unhedged)

As developed market economies continue to carry historically very high levels of debt, and with government bond issuance at all time highs, there is increasing convergence in volatility between EM and DM. The fundamentals in EM look solid, but there has been a deterioration across DM. This werewolf type behaviour hasn’t gone unnoticed, and markets are starting to price this in.

The full moon has DM fundamentals howling

2. Darkness approaching? Labour market confidence signalling recession?

Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg (CONCLBDF Index), 31 August 2025

Strain in the labour market is a classic sign of a recession. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Labor Differential is suggesting some significant deterioration in the availability of work. Spotting recession is easy in hindsight, but perhaps it has already made its way into the house hiding behind the door? The shape looks familiar to that of recessions gone by… could history be repeating itself?

Nightmare on Wall Street

3. Interest expense taking the opportunity of better services away?

Source: Bloomberg, Congressional Budget Office (31 December 2024)

US government debt levels have been soaring in the last 10 years. We find ourselves in a situation where interest payments servicing US debt are well in excess of their defence budget ($800 billion)! With so much money being spent on interest, what are the consequences for citizens in terms of services, and what effect does this have on growth? Is this a downward spiral that is tricky to escape?

‘Do you like scary net interest expenses?’ Enough to make you SCREAM.

4. A terrible fright in US freight – leading indicator for slowdown?

Source: Bloomberg (30 September 2025)

The Cass Freight Index is a measurement of monthly freight activity. A combination of restrictive monetary policy and a weakening consumer has led to a deterioration in the data, and the impact of tariffs are yet to be fully felt. We are approaching levels that we last saw during the Global Financial Crisis – serious slowdown in the economy. Perhaps this is indicating something more malicious lurking under the surface in the global economy? Are we yet to feel the full effects?

‘We’re gonna need a bigger boat!’ and more of them! Or the slowdown is upon us.

5. A trick for equities, a treat for fixed income?

Source: Robert J Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (updated, October 2025)

During the 2010s there was no alternative but to invest in equities. However, this is no longer the case. Bonds are back! Back to 1881, the excess CAPE Shiller earnings yield has been a strong indicator of subsequent 10 year returns in equity markets. The 2010s produced supernormal returns, but valuations are becoming increasingly stretched. At current levels, the S&P 500 would return 1.6% annualised over the next 10 years. With risk-free 10 year US Treasuries offering a return of 4%, bonds are considerably more attractive. All this before picking up the extra return on offer in credit markets, and outperformance from here with an active manager!

‘Who ya gonna call?’

‘Fixed Income!’

6. The ghost of the GFC in London housing starts and sales?

Source: Molior (30 September 2025)

The housing market can be a good temperature check for any economy. If the housing market is hot, this has multiplier effects to other sectors as home buyers purchase new furniture, carpets, appliances etc. London housing starts and sales are now down at GFC lows – a potential indicator of an economic slowdown when reflected on a national scale. There are moves afoot to boost the housing market and encourage further housebuilding through much needed planning reform in efforts to avert a slowdown. If there is a recession coming, will it be as deep as the GFC?  We think not, although it may be ‘L shaped’.

Déjà Boo: housing starts and sales in London have a scary resemblance to 2008

7. A Sixth Sense in the US auto loan market?

Source: M&G, Bloomberg, St Louis Fed (30 June 2025, latest available data)

There has been a strong uptick in serious auto loan delinquencies (defined as repayments 90 days+ past due) as the impact of the higher rates environment has been felt by consumers. We are now at levels approaching that of the GFC. Perhaps this shows us the weakness that is being felt by the consumer. Over the course of this chart, the total debt outstanding in auto loans has risen from $800 billion in 2008 to $1.65 trillion in 2025 (acknowledging inflation and the rise in car prices in this period, albeit many more cars are now on financing deals).

‘I see dead auto loans’ – are we seeing the weakness of consumer like in 2008?

A new European Union deal to liberalize trade with Ukraine took effect Wednesday, but Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are defying it, maintaining their protectionist bans on imports from the country. Their defiance comes amid mounting grievances over EU prioritization of the West’s proxy war on Russia over the prosperity of EU member states and their citizens.   

Approved on Oct 13, the new EU arrangement expands tariff-free Ukrainian access to European markets, replacing a temporary lowering of trade barriers adopted after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. “We believe (the agreement) is a stable, fair framework, that can be reliable both for the EU and for Ukraine, to ensure a gradual integration in our single market, while providing stable trade flows,” said European Commission spokeswoman Ariana Podesta. The European Commission (EC) is the EU’s principal executive branch.  

Rebelling against the Brussels regime, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia say they will maintain the bans on agricultural imports from Ukraine they put in place in 2023. The three countries’ bans were a reaction to a wartime glut of Ukrainian products, which resulted from Black Sea ports being disrupted by the war with Russia. The glut sank prices and hammered domestic producers. 

By imposing their own individual trade barriers, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are violating EU’s single-market regulations. On Thursday, the EC said it isn’t ruling out the possibility of taking legal action. “We see no justification for maintaining these national measures,” EC spokesman Olof Gill told Politico. While asserting that “all options are on the table,” Gill said the EC would “intensify its contact” with the uncooperative trio of Eastern European states. Thus far, the EC has been a paper tiger, tolerating the ban for two years while hoping the new arrangement would render them moot. 

The new EU trade rules limit some imports from Ukraine, including grains and oil. They also have a “safeguard clause” allowing protective measures to be employed if a glut of imports hurts domestic producers. However, Slovakian Agriculture Minister Richar Takáč told Politico the restrictions are “not strong enough” to protect his country’s farmers. Via social media, Hungary’s Agriculture Minister István Nagy wrote, “Although Brussels wants to give farmers’ money to Ukraine, we are protecting the resources, the livelihoods of Hungarian producers and our market.” 

Goods aren’t the only inflows from Ukraine that are testing the patience of European countries. Refugees from Ukraine are straining governments, soaking up welfare payments and competing with natives for employment. Things were already bad enough, but now Ukraine’s liberalized restrictions on male travel from the country are yielding a huge surge in military-age men pouring into Europe, with Poland and Germany bearing the brunt of it.

Conservatives in both countries are pointing to the disconnect between supporting Ukraine’s futile resistance to Russia at the same time young Ukrainian men are refusing to take part. As Poland’s Confederation party said this week, “Poland cannot continue to be a refuge for thousands of men who should be defending their own country, while burdening Polish taxpayers with the costs of their desertion.”

Authored by Rachel Ann T. Melegrito via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A simple saliva test could one day predict your risk of pancreatic cancer. Scientists have discovered that having a certain community of bacteria in your mouth can triple the likelihood of developing one of the deadliest forms of cancer—and the culprits include the same microbes that cause gum disease.

The recent study, published in JAMA Oncology, analyzed saliva samples from 122,000 participants in two large epidemiological studies and followed them for approximately nine years. During that time, 445 people developed pancreatic cancer.

In a microbiome-wide scan, researchers found 21 bacterial species linked to pancreatic cancer—eight tied to lower risk and 13 to higher risk.

In a separate test, researchers created a tool that predicted a person’s risks for pancreatic cancer. The tool took into account 27 microbes in total and would give participants a risk score depending on the microbes in their mouth. Each one-unit rise in the score tripled the risk of developing pancreatic cancer.

While some microbes in the risk score are individually linked to lower risk, the score reflects their combined effect. It’s a weighted measure that accounts for both protective and harmful species.

Three were well-known periodontal pathogens with established roles in gum disease.

The fungi implicated were Candida tropicalis, Candida spp (unresolved species), Candida albicans, and Malassezia globosa. The entire genus Candida, a common yeast, was also tied to greater risk, particularly among participants with a history of smoking.

How Mouth Bacteria Reach the Pancreas

Harmful bacteria don’t just stay in the mouth, they can travel throughout the body and trigger disease.

The mouth has local, systemic, and direct influence on disease in your body, Thaddeus Connelly, an oral and maxillofacial surgeon, physician, and CEO of Gengyve, told The Epoch Times.

“Oral microbes exist in a balanced ecosystem when we’re healthy,” said Dileep Sharma, a professor and head of discipline, oral health at the University of Newcastle. When that balance is disrupted, harmful bacteria can directly damage the gums and bone and cause chronic inflammation, first in the mouth, and later in distant organs.

“If you are chronically, or over a long period of time, constantly releasing the inflammatory molecules into your bloodstream, the tissues and organs that receive that constant alarm signal develop disease,” Connelly said. This chronic inflammation, he added, is a key driver of conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, fatty liver disease, stroke, and cancer.

Bacteria can also travel from the saliva through the gut to organs and cause inflammation and damage there, like the pancreas, possibly leading to cancer.

Poor oral hygiene and gum disease can create a steady “drip” of bacteria into the blood. Inflamed gums allow microbes to slip into tiny blood vessels during everyday actions like chewing, brushing, or flossing.

The Same Bacteria, Multiple Diseases

The same microbes associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer are also linked to other conditions.

P. gingivalis, the main bacterium behind gum disease, has been linked to infective endocarditis, cardiovascular disease, arthritis (often in combination with Prevotella intermedia), and even Alzheimer’s disease. Prevotella species themselves have also been connected to head and neck cancers.

Fusobacterium nucleatum is implicated in the development of inflammatory bowel disease. Parvimonas species are frequently found in spinal infections. Meanwhile, Candida albicans, a common fungal organism, has been linked to an increased risk of several cancers.

According to Sharma, microbial byproducts can contribute to oral and gastrointestinal cancers, while chronic inflammation from an imbalanced microbiome may drive mutations that lead to tumors.

“It starts in the mouth and gut, with poor diet and periodontal disease to blame,” Connelly said.

What You Can Do

While the study identifies risk factors rather than proving cause and effect, maintaining good oral hygiene remains crucial for overall health.

“It is clearer than ever that brushing and flossing your teeth may not only help prevent periodontal disease but may also protect against cancer,” study co-senior author Dr. Richard Hayes, a professor in the Department of Population Health at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, said in a press release.

Most oral hygiene comes down to keeping your mouth clean and maintaining the right balance of bacteria. The basics, brushing and flossing, work by mechanically disrupting and preventing plaque from forming.

Plaque begins soft, but as it absorbs minerals, it hardens and attracts more dangerous bacterial species. Mature plaque becomes a breeding ground for harmful bacteria like F. nucleatum and P. gingivalis, Connelly said.

“Oral hygiene is critical in maintaining a clean mouth and the right bacteria in your mouth,” Connelly said. Brushing, flossing, and rinsing help stop plaque from forming and hardening into what he calls a “bad bacteria factory,” creating an environment where healthy bacteria can thrive.

However, not all oral hygiene products kill bacteria.

Toothpaste does not kill bacteria, and mouthwashes kill both good and bad bacteria, Connelly said.

“Beyond brushing and flossing, use a product that is scientifically formulated as a physical barrier against the establishment and maturation of plaque, ” Connelly said. He suggests mouthwashes that have hyaluronic acid and other mucoadhesive components such as pullulan and polyvinylpyrrolidone.

These products mix and form a protective net on the surface of the teeth and soft tissues inside the mouth, where the battle between different microbes is waged.

Research also shows that tongue cleaning supports a healthier balance of microbes.

Sharma said that lifestyle has a big impact on the oral microbiome.

Eating more fiber-rich foods and quitting smoking can improve its balance. Smoking encourages harmful bacteria tied to gum disease, while diets high in polyphenols, omega-3s, and fiber support healthy bacteria and reduce inflammation.

Other practical strategies to promote a healthy oral microbiome include:

• Eating seafood, plant protein, and overall protein
• Cutting back on added sugar and carbohydrates
• Taking probiotics
• Eating fermented foods, such as yogurt, cheese, and fermented milk

As researchers continue to find out more about the connections between oral bacteria and systemic disease, one message is clear: Taking care of your mouth may protect far more than your teeth and gums.

Earlier this week Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken issued some stark – and some might say, irresponsible – words directed at Moscow, warning that any missile strike on Brussels would trigger an overwhelming NATO response.

“If Putin launches a missile at Brussels, we will wipe Moscow off the map,” Francken told the De Morgen daily on Monday. It’s unclear what precisely prompted such an aggressive warning, coming after Russia’s own ‘red line’ type rhetoric seeking to dissuade Washington from arming Kiev with long-range Tomahawk missiles.

Franckena further said that any conventional attack on Brussels would also result in Moscow getting “flattened.” 

Again, the words were ultra-provocative given it is only one country currently seeing its territory regularly attacked with the help of NATO, and that’s Russia.

When asked in the interview about European doubts concerning Trump’s commitment to NATO, Franckena responded, “The bias against the American government is so great in Europe. Unbelievable…He literally said that America will continue to support its NATO allies one hundred percent. A cruise missile on Brussels? That’s a no-brainer, whatever definition you use. Putin won’t do that either.”

“I consider a major Russian attack on the Baltic states less likely. Those are NATO member states, after all. Soon we’ll have six hundred F-35s in Europe: the Russians are afraid of them because they can’t see them,” he added.

In response, the Russian Embassy in Belgium promptly condemned Francken’s “provocative and irresponsible” statements as “sheer absurdity and total disconnect from reality.” 

As quoted in state media, the embassy said further:

“Francken’s escapades are the most glaring manifestation of the militarist frenzy that is increasingly consuming the European war party,” the embassy said.

It added that EU officials like Francken are “posing a threat to the continent’s future and [are] capable of plunging it into a new war.”

And separately, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko said Wednesday that Francken’s words were in line with “the atmosphere of military psychosis” which now dominates discourse in Western Europe.

Moscow has been repeatedly warning that long-range Western-supplied missiles on Russian territory will change the nature of the conflict, and that runaway escalation with NATO could be the result.

A lot of questions and suspicions were immediately raised when on October 21 explosions and fires occurred at large oil refineries in Hungary and Romania. Eyebrows were raised given that both sites have links to Russia.

The Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in Ploiesti (owned by Russian company Lukoil) in southern Romania was damaged, while in Hungary a ‘mystery’ fire also occurred at the country’s largest oil refinery (the MOL-operated Danube Refinery), located in the city of Szazhalombatta – some 17 miles from Budapest – which receives crude oil from Russia.

Despite long efforts of the European Union to phase out Russian energy, a tiny number of states still receive supplies. This is why many have suspected sabotage, possibly linked to Ukrainian intelligence, was behind the twin refinery fires, which had occurred within less than 24 hours apart.

But now, over a week later, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has revealed in a social media statement that authorities haven’t ruled out the possibility of an external attack in investigating the fire at Százhalombatta.

“The investigation is in full swing. We still do not know whether it was an accident, malfunction or outside attack,” Orbán said.

Further, he stated: “The Polish foreign minister advised the Ukrainians to blow up the Druzhba oil pipeline,” before adding, “Let’s hope it’s not that kind of case.”

And according to Politico, “Orbán added Thursday he had instructed his government to inform MOL that it shouldn’t raise energy prices for consumers in response to the fire at the refinery.”

Hungary relies heavily on oil transported through the Druzhba pipeline from Russia through Ukraine and Slovakia. MOL Group, which operates refineries in Hungary and Slovakia, processes 14.2 million tons of Russian crude oil a year.

Orban said he has spoken with MOL Group about the new US sanctions targeting Russian oil this month, which come into effect in November. “We are working on how to circumvent this sanction,” he recently said in an interview with state radio Kossuth.

In 24 hours, serious incidents occurred at two oil refineries: on Monday night a fire broke out at the MOL plant in Százhalombatta (Hungary), and several hours earlier an explosion shook the Petrotel–Lukoil refinery in Romania.

The MOL plant, which is the largest and most modern… pic.twitter.com/xghOedeXP5

— Anatolij Sharij (@anatoliisharii) October 21, 2025

The Treasury has argued that its actions would increase pressure on Russia’s energy sector and degrade the Kremlin’s ability to fight its war against Ukraine. President Trump held off for a long time, but Kiev and the Europeans welcomed the firm anti-Moscow actions.

The sanctions drove up oil prices in the aftermath and raised questions regarding how certain eastern and central European countries will continue to meet their energy needs.

Via Remix News,

The German government has disclosed that a total of 135,668 crimes have been committed by Syrian suspects between 2015 and 2024, amounting to one every 39 minutes over the past 10 years.

The figures, released by the Federal Ministry of the Interior in response to a parliamentary inquiry from the AfD, have reignited the party’s demands for tougher migration controls and deportations.

The data, obtained by Freilich magazine, also shows large numbers of victims of crimes committed by suspects from other countries of origin, including 82,960 linked to Afghanistan, 69,946 to Iraq, 39,918 to Morocco, and 32,383 to Algeria. Altogether, more than 460,000 crimes were recorded in the 10-year period involving suspects from the 10 main countries of origin: Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Morocco, Algeria, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, and Eritrea.

In respect to Afghan suspects, that’s one crime every 63 minutes; for Iraqis, one every 75 minutes; for Moroccans, one every 132 minutes; and for Algerians, one every 162 minutes.

According to police crime statistics cited by the German publication, the number of Syrian suspects has continued to rise. In 2024, there were 101,265 criminal cases involving Syrians, excluding immigration offenses — up from 94,158 the previous year. The federal interior ministry reported particularly sharp increases in violent and sexual offenses. In 2024, there were 12,512 violent crimes involving Syrian suspects, the highest in 10 years. Cases of rape, sexual coercion, and serious sexual assault rose to 648, more than 60 percent higher than in 2020.

Mehr als jede zweite Frau in Deutschland fühlt sich im öffentlichen Raum nicht mehr sicher. Diese alarmierende Zahl aus der repräsentativen Civey-Umfrage ist ein weiterer Beweis für das Regierungsversagen bei der Migrations- und Sicherheitspolitik: Wie das Bundesinnenministerium… pic.twitter.com/ccerdx7nXY

— Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) October 28, 2025

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel said in a press release that the figures show “the government’s failure in migration and security policy.” She stated, “More than half of all women in Germany no longer feel safe in public spaces. This alarming figure is further proof of the government’s failure. Between 2015 and 2024, 135,668 Germans were victims of crimes committed by suspected Syrian perpetrators. This development is not only extremely alarming but also the result of government mismanagement and uncorrected political misjudgments.”

Weidel also criticized Chancellor Friedrich Merz directly, claiming that the governing coalition refuses to “honestly identify the causes of the problems” and instead engages in “ideological debates about racism.” She said the victims are “young women and children, who are often defenselessly exposed to violent attacks,” calling the situation “a declaration of bankruptcy by this federal government in terms of security policy.”

AfD Bundestag member Christopher Drößler, who initiated the parliamentary inquiry, said the figures demonstrate the need for a large-scale deportation campaign. “Numbers don’t lie. The statistics confirm once again: Germans are primarily victims of criminal foreigners from [Middle] Eastern countries,” Drößler told Freilich. “We need a massive deportation offensive that focuses primarily on migrants from the main countries of origin, especially Syria, Afghanistan, Morocco, and Iraq.” He said deportations to all these countries “must finally be possible.”

The AfD argues that uncontrolled migration is worsening social tensions in Germany, including competition for housing, benefits, and public safety, and says it is the only party offering “clear solutions” such as border security, deportation of criminal foreigners, and increased police strength.

This month alone, Remix News has reported on several cases involving Syrian suspects across Germany, including the trial this week of a man accused of attempting to murder his former partner and their infant son by setting fire to her apartment while they were inside.

Last week, five Syrian men aged between 17 and 26 were arrested in connection with the alleged gang rape of a 17-year-old girl in Heinsberg, near Aachen. The teenage victim was reportedly persuaded by her ex-boyfriend to meet him, but when he picked her up, three other men entered the car. He then drove them to an apartment in Heinsberg, where two additional men were waiting to rape her under threat of a Taser.

Earlier this month, a 14-year-old Syrian boy accused of committing around 200 crimes was arrested in northern Germany after years of violent offenses that terrorized towns in Schleswig-Holstein. Mohamad H. was charged with three counts of grievous bodily harm, but is accused of committing dozens of offenses, including knife possession, attacking police officers, and multiple thefts.

Read more here…

Media reports in Europe, including in The Telegraph and Politico, are this week documenting a new massive surge in young men fleeing Ukraine in order to not be conscripted, in which case they could be sent to front lines and face certain death.

“Almost 100,000 fighting-age Ukrainian men have left the country in the past two months after Volodymyr Zelensky eased departure rules, new figures show,” The Telegraph reports.

The figures are primarily based on the Polish border guard, as the neighboring EU country shares a long border with Ukraine, and has been from the start of the war absorbing refugees and trying to maintain strict counts and records.

“Poland’s border guard said 99,000 Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 22 had crossed the frontier – the primary route out of the country – since regulations to ensure that Kyiv had enough soldiers were relaxed at the end of August,” The Telegraph writes, and then reminds readers: “In comparison, the entire British Army has around 70,000 personnel.”

Even after well over three years of grinding war and a huge loss of men in the fighting, there is yet no mobilization of those aged 18 to 25 in Ukraine. This fact has time and again angered American politicians, who have pressed Kiev to have standards in line with most of the rest of the world’s militaries. 

At the tail end of the Biden administration, Zelensky’s office had the audacity to shift blame onto the West for not getting enough weapons to the front lines, arguing that more manpower would make little difference if there’s not enough weapons and ammo to go around.

“It doesn’t make sense to see calls for Ukraine to lower the mobilization age, presumably in order to draft more people, when we can see that previously announced equipment is not arriving on time. Because of these delays, Ukraine lacks weapons to equip already mobilized soldiers,” a statement said at the time.

But Zelensky’s martial law program had blocked Ukrainian men aged from 18 to 60 from leaving the country. But then just this past summer this restriction was loosened. 

The major change was reported at the time as follows: “Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers has revised travel rules and allowed men aged 18 to 22 to cross the border, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on Telegram on Aug. 26.”

While men aged 25 to 60 can be conscripted into the military and sent to the front lines, men 24 and under still cannot. Again, this has been hugely controversial as even US members of Congress have complained that Washington is sinking billions into the war effort against Russia, and Kiev won’t even tap into its most eligible fighting-age demographic.

And so the expected drain of young men from the country is happening. The Telegraph explains Kiev’s rationale as: “By granting young Ukrainians more freedoms to leave, it was hoped more would return and volunteer to fight at a later date.” But unless there’s the unlikely scenario of Ukraine going on the offensive and pushing back Russian lines – or else a full and final peace settlement – the trend of young men fleeing Ukraine is unlikely to be reversed anytime soon.

Via Remix News,

An attempt to ban a movie seen as in breach of France’s long-cherished separation of Church and State has turned the film into a box-office success. 

“Sacre Coeur: Son regne n’aura pas de fin” (“Sacred Heart: His reign will have no end”) tells the story of the Sacred Heart devotion through the centuries, up until modern times. A devotion in Catholicism entails prayer, receiving communion, and making acts of reparation for sins. The Sacred Heart devotion revolves around such practices in the name of the heart of Jesus Christ, which serves as a symbol of his divine love, mercy, and compassion for humanity.

At first, the mayor of Marseille, Benoît Payan (Socialist Party), sought to ban any promotion of the film in spaces managed by the SNCF (French National Railway Company) and the RATP (Parisian public transport operator).

He then banned a screening of the film in a local municipal cinema — all in the name of secularism. 

The issue was that Payan has always seemed far more open to anything related to Islam. In fact, the mayor has set aside land for the building of mosques, made sure Muslim celebrations have adequate venues, and even visited high schools with Muslim Brotherhood ties, reports France Catholique, citing a report out of Frontières magazine on “mayors complicit with Islamism.” 

During Ramadan this year, he even openly stated: “Many of those who lecture Muslims […] should learn what is written in the surahs, which can enlighten us about the world.” 

The movie has particular significance to the city, as the FC portal also notes that Bishop de Belsunce consecrated Marseille to the Sacred Heart during the Great Plague of 1720, which is said to have then ended right afterward. 

Luckily, there were those who decided to push back against the mayor’s ban. Last week, the senator from Marseille, Stéphane Ravier, formerly of Le Pen’s National Rally party, filed an emergency appeal to overturn the municipal decision. Martine Vassal (The Republicans), president of the Bouches-du-Rhône department and the Aix-Marseille-Provence metropolitan area, also came out publicly in support of the film and attended its screening that same evening. 

On the morning of the 25th, the court overturned the previous decision, with a strong message for Mayor Payant: “The mayor of Marseille has committed a serious and manifestly illegal infringement of freedom of expression, freedom of creation, and freedom of artistic dissemination.”

At the end of the day, as noted by France Catholique, Payant’s attempt to squash this Christian film backfired terribly. More than 200,000 people have now seen the film directed by Steven J. and Sabrina Gunnel since its release on Oct. 1. While the film was initially in just 155 theaters across France, this was increased to nearly 350 in its third week. 

Read more here…

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

US-backed NATO, Pakistan, and the “Asian/Containment Crescent” of Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines are poised to respectively face off against Russia, India, and China across this century.

The US is sending mixed signals about the Sino–Russo Entente, which was strengthened by the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline deal, after Trump said in September that he’s “not concerned” about it while Secretary of War Pete Hegseth claimed that he ordered him to “re-establish deterrence” against them. As was argued here, “Trump 2.0’s Eurasian Balancing Act Has Failed” largely as a result of this development, which importantly involved India’s tacit approval amidst its rapprochement with China.

Far from remaining divided, principally as regards China and India with all the complications that their continued rivalry would entail for Russia’s own balancing act, Eurasia’s three most powerful civilization-states are increasingly coming together to revive their dormant Russia-India-China (RIC) format. This platform is significant on its own but it’s also crucially the core of BRICS and the SCO, which play complementary roles in gradually transforming global governance as explained here.

These RIC-accelerated multipolar processes can’t be countered through direct military force, however, but the way in which the Pentagon might try to slow everything down is through provoking arms races. NATO’s, Pakistan’s, and the “Asian/Containment Crescent’s” (Japan-Taiwan-Philippines) US-backed military buildups (partial in Pakistan’s case) could help achieve this vis-à-vis Russia, India, and China as could reinforced US military presences (or a formal return in Pakistan’s case) in each.

Likewise, the “Golden Dome”, intermediate-range missile deployments in their regions, and more militarization of outer space can place additional pressure on Russia and China to this end, though these moves could also backfire by enhancing those two’s military-technical coordination too. To be clear, Russia and China aren’t allies that would go to war for one another, but their shared military-security and strategic interests raise the chances that they’ll provide support for the other during wartime.

China has thus far eschewed sending military-technical aid to Russia due to its complex interdependence with the West, but Trump’s tariff war, his accusation that President Xi Jinping is “conspiring” against the US, and the Pentagon’s plans for the “Asian/Containment Crescent” might prompt a recalculation. In a similar spirit, Russia might become comfortable sharing cutting-edge military-technical knowledge with China to counterbalance US moves in Japan, which could extend to their shared North Korean ally too.

Although the lion’s share of Pakistan’s military-technical equipment comes from China, the US might break into this market if Chinese exports decrease due to the Sino-Indo rapprochement, which could also lead to a decrease in American exports to India and the need to replace them with exports to Pakistan. Russia might even regain its traditional role as India’s top supplier by far if exports to it spike in response to more US exports to Pakistan in a de facto revival of the region’s Old Cold War-era military dynamics.

All of these strategic dynamics set the stage for a security dilemma between the Eurasian Rimland (NATO, Pakistan, and the “Asian/Containment Crescent”) and the Eurasian Heartland (RIC) instigated by the US in order to “re-establish deterrence” vis-à-vis the Sino-Russo Entente. The purpose is to pressure one of them or their shared Indian partner into capitulating to the US so as to then more effectively divide-and-rule the supercontinent. This hegemonic plot will define Eurasia’s 21st-century geopolitics.

Via The Cradle

Hundreds of thousands of ultra-Orthodox Israelis, known as the Haredim, gathered in Jerusalem on Thursday for a mass rally against the arrests of yeshiva students accused of evading military service.

The rally is described by Israeli media as a ‘rare show of unity’ between the divided Haredi factions, who are often in opposition regarding politics and state relations. The demonstration, named “Cry of the Torah,” was endorsed by nearly all ultra-Orthodox leaders, who instructed followers to attend and maintain order. 

Only the Jerusalem Faction, led by Rabbi Azriel Auerbach, refused to participate, accusing organizers of failing to demand the full reinstatement of the long-standing Torato Omanuto exemption system that allows Torah students to defer military service.

The exemption is central to the ultra-Orthodox Jewish way of life, allowing yeshiva students to dedicate their time solely to the study of the Torah instead of army duty, a principle many Haredim see as vital to preserving their religious identity. Torah study is viewed by the ultra-Orthodox as a form of spiritual service to the nation, equal in importance to military duty.

“After it was not made clear to me that the purpose of the rally is to publicly declare that the ultra-Orthodox community demands the reinstatement of the Torato Omanuto arrangement … I cannot instruct participation in this rally,” Auerbach said in a public letter.

Organizers said the gathering was not against the draft exemption law itself but against the arrests of students labeled as deserters. “The debate over the law is still ongoing, and it belongs in the Knesset,” a source explained. “But following the arrests and persecution against us, it was decided to protest nonetheless.”

WATCH: Ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredim) protest military conscription and the arrest of draft dodgers in Jerusalem. pic.twitter.com/yjk5N3ZmoZ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 30, 2025

The event featured no speeches or a central stage. Instead, rabbis stood separately in different locations while crowds recited psalms and prayers. 

“Some will stand on balconies overlooking the streets where the rally is taking place, and others will stay in their cars,” one organizer said, adding that coordinating a central platform for such large numbers was “impossible.”

An official notice instructed women to pray separately, stating that “women of Israel from the city of Jerusalem who wish to take part in the event will gather in a designated area,” while others were asked to “join the prayers from wherever they are.”

The protest was convened after Lithuanian leaders, Rabbis Dov Landau and Moshe Hillel Hirsch, called for action following the arrest of several yeshiva students. Their decision prompted Shas and Agudat Yisrael leaders to join, forming a unified coordinating committee across factions.

Would you believe me if I told you this video is not AI? pic.twitter.com/lECC4XifyW

— War Monitor (@MGN_Breaking) October 30, 2025

Police prepared for potential disturbances by hardline followers of Rabbi Zvi Friedman, whose group disrupted a Supreme Court hearing a day earlier. “We expect that the police will use full force against them so they don’t turn our prayer rally into a violent event,” a source warned.

A counter-protest was organized nearby by the “Coalition of Service Organizations and Families of Reservists,” including bereaved families and wounded soldiers.

Prominent ultra-Orthodox leaders have repeatedly urged their followers to ignore military recruitment orders following the Israeli High Court’s ruling that yeshiva students must be drafted into military service amid Israel’s enlistment crisis in the army.

🇮🇱⚡- Haredi Jews burn the Israeli flag in protests againt the Israeli Govt. pic.twitter.com/0nf50Tpp5n

— Monitor𝕏 (@MonitorX99800) October 30, 2025

The legislation was introduced in 2024 amid mounting losses in Gaza, aiming to replenish dwindling manpower as the Israeli army struggled to sustain operations while facing an unprecedented shortage of recruits.