Hassett Odds Soar As Trump Confirms He’s Made Decision On Next Fed Chair
President Donald Trump said on Nov. 30 that he has already decided on his pick to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, adding that an announcement is forthcoming, but declining to identify his nominee.
“I know who I am going to pick, yeah,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on his way back from Florida to Washington on Sunday.
When asked whether he would nominate National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the current frontrunner to replace Powell according to betting markets, Trump smiled and replied, “I’m not going to tell you, we’ll be announcing it.”
Hassett now has an 75% chance of getting the nomination according to prediction market Polymarket. Former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh is at 12% with Fed Gov. Christopher Waller down to 8%.
Earlier Sunday, Hassett, on CBS’ “Face The Nation,” said the market’s reaction to reports that Trump was close to a pick is a positive sign.
“Once it became clear that the president’s getting closer to make a decision, the markets really celebrated, interest rates went down, we had one of our best Treasury auctions ever,” Hassett said on Fox.
“I think that the market expects that there’s going to be a new person at the Fed, and they expect that President Trump’s going to pick a new one. And if he picks me, I’d be happy to serve.”
Hassett, who has strongly defended Trump’s economic policies, including tariffs and interest rates, said he would be happy to serve as Fed chief if Trump nominated him.
“I’m really honored to be amongst a group of really great candidates,” Hassett told CBS.
“I think that the American people could expect President Trump to pick somebody who’s going to help them, you know, have cheaper car loans and easier access to mortgages at lower rates.”
We do note that rates are higher this morning after Trump’s comments (and the yield curve is steeper – policy error), but there are a lot of moving parts after the long weekend (from mixed manufacturing data to a hawkish BoJ) impacting markets.
Market-implied odds have soared to fully price in a rate-cut in December…
Finally, we note that Hassett’s financial disclosure reveals at least a seven‑figure Coinbase stake and compensation for serving on the exchange’s Academic and Regulatory Advisory Council, placing him unusually close to the crypto industry for a potential Fed chair.
Still, crypto has been burned before by reading too much into “crypto‑literate” resumes. Gary Gensler arrived at the Securities and Exchange Commission with MIT blockchain courses under his belt, but went on to preside over a wave of high‑profile enforcement actions, some of which critics branded as “Operation Chokepoint 2.0.”
A Hassett-led Fed might be more open to experimentation and less reflexively hostile to bank‑crypto activity. Still, the institution’s mandate on financial stability means markets should not assume a one‑way bet on deregulation.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, is creating a $1.44 billion US dollar reserve to support dividend payments on its preferred stock and interest on its outstanding debt.
Strategy on Monday announced the establishment of a US dollar reserve funded through proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock under its at-the-market offering program.
“Strategy’s current intention is to maintain a USD Reserve in an amount sufficient to fund at least twelve months of its dividends, and Strategy intends to strengthen the USD Reserve over time, with the goal of ultimately covering 24 months or more of its dividends,” the company said.
Alongside the launch of the reserve, Strategy disclosed an additional purchase of 130 Bitcoin for $11.7 million, bringing its total holdings to a symbolic value of 650,000 BTC, acquired for $48.38 billion.
Notably, while MSTR has been in decline, the last few days have seen the preferreds bid…
The Strategy preferred now yields from 9% to nearly 13%, considerably above the 6% rate on preferred stock from major banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.
Primary means for funding dividends
According to the Strategy’s company update on Monday, its US dollar reserve will be the primary source of funding dividends paid to holders of its preferred stocks, debt and common equity.
The update details that the $1.44 billion reserve is 2.2% of Strategy’s enterprise value, 2.8% of equity value and 2.4% of Bitcoin value.
Strategy’s funding of the USD Reserve. Source: Strategy
“We believe this improves the quality and attractiveness of our preferreds, debt and common equity,” Strategy said, adding that it raised $1.44 billion in less than nine trading days by selling its common A stock MSTR.
“Establishing a USD Reserve to complement our BTC Reserve marks the next step in our evolution,” Strategy founder Saylor said, adding that the new financial tool will better position the company to navigate short-term market volatility.
Strategy CEO and president Phong Le highlighted that the company’s latest BTC purchase — made in the past two weeks — brings its total holdings to 650,000 BTC, or about 3.1% of the 21 million BTC that will ever exist.
An excerpt from Strategy’s Form 8-K. Source: SEC
“In recognition of the important role we play in the broader Bitcoin ecosystem, and to further reinforce our commitment to our credit investors and shareholders, we have established a USD Reserve that currently covers 21 months of dividends,” Le noted.
Strategy lowers 2025 KPI targets
Alongside its reserve and 650,000 BTC holdings, Strategy has significantly lowered its KPI targets and corresponding assumptions for 2025 results.
According to the update, Strategy now expects its BTC yield to end the year between 22% and 26%, with a projected BTC price estimate of $85,000–$110,000 by Dec. 31.
Revised assumptions and corresponding results for 2025. Source: Strategy
The company has also significantly reduced its targeted BTC gains, cutting its previous expectation of $20 billion to a revised range of between $8.4 billion and $12.8 billion.
The revised target for operating income is between $7 billion and $9.5 billion, down from the originally projected $34 billion.
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
Major US indices closed high on Friday evening as trading resumed following the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P500 was up 0.54%, the Dow up 0.61% and the NASDAQ up 0.65%, but US equity futures are pointed lower this morning and Asian equity markets are showing mixed performance. Bond yields are mostly higher. Yields on US 10s rose 2.1bps to 4.03% while yields on 2-year JGBs reached their highest level in 17 years after BOJ Governor Ueda hinted that he is seriously considering a rate hike this month.
Brent crude is up 1.20% in early trade following news that Ukrainian drones had struck two Russian ‘Shadow Fleet’ tankers bound for the Novorossiysk oil terminal in the Black Sea. The terminal itself was later struck by Ukrainian drones, prompting a halt in operations, while Moldova reported incursions of Russian drones into its own airspace in an apparent continuation of Russia’s ‘grey-zone’ tactics that has seen Russian drones violate the airspace of Poland, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Romania and the Baltic states in recent months.
NATO allies have stationed fighter jets in Poland under Operation Eastern Sentry that can be scrambled to shoot down Russian drones, but this is a high cost response to the very cheap probing of NATO’s defences that is being conducted by the Kremlin. This as the Wall Street Journal reports that ‘Russia Gains the Upper Hand in Drone Battle, Once Ukraine’s Forte’ and quotes a Ukrainian drone unit commander who says that Russia is receiving superior supply chain support from China than Ukraine is receiving from the United States and Europe combined.
Ukrainian officials met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Florida to progress talks to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Ukrainian delegation was missing erstwhile Zelenskyy Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, who has resigned his position following anti-corruption raids on his home relating to investigations over illegal kickbacks in Ukraine’s energy sector. Rubio told journalists after the meeting that progress had been made but that there was still more work to be done.
Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow today to meet with President Putin to progress a deal. Yermak’s departure may have placed Zelenskyy further on the back foot in the bargaining process as his image is tarnished by whiffs of corruption at the heart of his government. President Trump speculated as much aboard Air Force One, where he told journalists that he thought there was a “good chance” of a deal to end the war being signed, but that the Ukrainian corruption scandal was “not helpful”.
While negotiations over the fate of Ukraine continue, another risk event for energy markets continues to unfold in Venezuela. President Trump took to Truth Social over the weekend to declare “THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.” This comes following the largest US deployment of military assets to the region in decades and series of missile strikes on small boats thought to be engaged in drug smuggling.
The purpose of US pressure on Venezuela has very likely now expanded from enforcement action against drug trafficking to efforts toward regime change (see here for RaboResearch’s further thoughts). Donald Trump told journalists aboard Air Force Once that he had been in contact with Venezuelan President Maduro over the phone, but didn’t disclose details of the conversation. He had previously indicated that the US would soon begin land strikes in Venezuela. “If we can save lives, if we can do things the easy way that’s fine. If we have to do it the hard way, that’s fine too.”
France & UK Still Insist On Sending Troops To Ukraine, In Effort To Sabotage Trump Peace Plan
As we reported earlier, the important Miami meeting wherein American and Ukrainian delegations hammered out a revised ceasefire draft for some five hours on Sunday did not have European participation. But this is where the real deal-making is taking place. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is en route to Moscow, where he’s expected to meet with President Putin on Tuesday, in order to present where things stand on the peace plan.
The Miami meeting reportedly focused on where the new de facto border would be in the east, after the 19-point plan featured significant territorial concessions in the Donbass and Crimea. As for Europe, is still touting a “coalition of the willing” which are vowing ongoing military support to the Zelensky government.
At this moment, France and the United Kingdom especially are continuing to push for the deployment of troops from NATO-member states to Ukraine as part of their version of peace settlement, despite this being very obviously unacceptable to Moscow.
Last week Politico reported that when US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined a discussion involving the coalition of the willing via phone call, he made clear to all that the White House wants a peace agreement in place before committing to any long-term security guarantees for Kiev.
But UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer tried to push back, arguing that a “multinational force” would be essential for ensuring Ukraine’s future security.
Bloomberg then followed with a report saying that UK officials have already selected the military units they plan to deploy, based on several reconnaissance trips to Ukraine.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron proposed that such troops could operate in the capital area or western regions of the country, far from the front lines. But this would flagrantly cross all Russia’s red lines. NATO troops on its doorstep was key Putin’s decision-making in launching the ‘special military operation’ in the first place.
It must be recalled that the original US-drafted 28-point peace plan, which leaked to the press and more recently was condensed down to 19 points, included an explicit prohibition on deploying NATO troops to Ukraine.
The European-proposed counter-plan, which was also quickly leaked to the media, greatly softened that stance and laid out that instead of a blanket ban, NATO would not “permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime.”
At a moment Trump’s peace plan advances, and with Witkoff on his way to meet with President Putin, hawks in Europe are growing even more hawkish:
⚡️BREAKING: NATO may carry out a preemptive strike against Russia
For the first time, the alliance is discussing the possibility of a preemptive strike on Russia in response to its hybrid attacks. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the head of NATO’s Military Committee, told… pic.twitter.com/57RgfyNZpn
Such intentionally vague language leaves open the possibility of NATO troop rotations into Ukraine. The Kremlin has time and again said it would not tolerate this, and such a move would lead to direct war with the West.
Europe’s plan also seeks to leave open a Ukrainian path to NATO, but this is also a sticking point which the US plan leaves out, given it would of course be dead on arrival if presented to Putin.
Witkoff Heads To Moscow With Revised Ukraine Peace Plan After Tense Miami Meeting Focused On Borders
Both sides kept their comments somewhat vague after the US and Ukrainian delegations met in Miami on Sunday to discuss a potential outline for a peace deal to end the war with Russia. One of the Ukrainian delegates called it “intense but not negative.” Axios wrote, “After an hour in a wider format, the meeting narrowed to three officials from each side — with the line of territorial control virtually the only issue discussed, according to the two Ukrainian officials.”
The American side which was led Secretary of State Marco Rubio cited simply that there’s “more work to be done,” including more direct engagement with Russia, also as Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow this week to meet with President Vladimir Putin. Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, also attended the talks, despite not actually having an official position in the Trump administration. Axios reports some of the details gleaned thus far as follows:
Negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, two Ukrainian officials tell Axios. They described the five-hour meeting as “difficult” and “intense,” but productive.
Rubio said in the immediate aftermath of the meeting, “We had another very productive session, building off Geneva, building off the events of this week. As I told you earlier this morning, our goal here is to end the war, but it’s more than just to end the war. We don’t just want to end the war. We also want to help Ukraine be safe forever, so never again will they face another invasion.”
This presumably is a reference to security guarantees, which were outlined in the Trump-proposed plan and likened to Article 5-like protections, something which Moscow is likely to reject if it does actually invite the possibility of future NATO military intervention.
Rubio is still only emphasizing laying the “groundwork” at this late stage. “And so this is comprehensive, what we’re working on here today. It’s not just about the terms that end fighting. It’s about also the terms that set up Ukraine for long-term prosperity. I thought we started laying the groundwork for that, most certainly in Geneva,” he described.
As for the degree to which the Zelensky government is actually on board, Rubio acknowledged, “I think there is a shared vision here that this is not just about ending the war, which is very important. It is about securing Ukraine’s future, a future that we hope will be more prosperous than it’s ever been.”
Amid the typical vagueness present in such post-meeting comments, Rubio did note that progress was made. “I think additional progress was made, and we continue to be realistic about how difficult this is, but optimistic, particularly given the fact that as we’ve made progress,” he said. But a key question remains the degree to which the Ukrainians finally expressed willingness to make territorial concessions in the Donbass and Crimea.
The Ukrainian delegation was led by Rustem Umerov, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security Council, after Andriy Yermak, who was until Friday Zelensky’s top aide and chief negotiator, resigned – or rather was pressured out -following a police raid on his home by anti-corruption investigators. He has since dramatically announce that he has gone to the front lines. Some say he is hiding from investigators, which can’t reach him in a military zone.
Umerov began his post-meeting remarks, “Once again, we are grateful to American people, American leadership and great team with State Secretary Rubio, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner for their tremendous work with us. Our objective is prosperous, strong Ukraine. We were discussing about the future of Ukraine.”
He continued, without tipping his cards, “We worked. We already had a successful meeting in Geneva, and today, we continue this success. So at the moment, this meeting was productive and successful.”
So territorial concessions and security guarantees remain the central sticking points, with many analysts saying now that Umerov is running point, and with Yermak pushed aside, President Trump’s vision for bringing an end to the war could be more easily accomplished.
At this moment, US officials say Witkoff is expected to submit updated documents in his upcoming meeting with President Putin that incorporate the latest talks and revisions that weremadewith Kiev and European leaders.
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Looks like the meeting between the US and the Ukraine didn’t go too well.
According to sources, the US wants Ukraine to hold elections as soon as possible and enforces it has to give up territories.
Still, the Ukrainian side didn’t look happy based on the few photographs of the meeting’s start which emerged. The Trump administration is definitely in the driver’s seat, and Europe is not even at the table. This is likely become they know the clock is ticking on the battlefield, where as Moon of Alabama has noted, “The Ukrainian army is collapsing. Pokrovsk had been enveloped and occupied a week ago. But Zelenski and others kept claimed that the Ukrainian was winning that battle.” The geopolitical analysis source continues:
As the army breaks down and its soldiers flee from their positions (in Russian) other cities, like Huleipole and Siversk, will soon fall too.
There is no way for Ukraine to win the war. The longer the war takes the more will be lost for Ukraine.
The utter delusion behind the rejection of Trump’s 28 point plan was demonstrated by the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Katja Kallas: “We still need to get from a situation where Russia pretends to negotiate to a situation where they need to negotiate.”
Moon of Alabama quips rhetorically: “Sure. And how are going to get there? After 19 rounds of EU sanction on Russia the 20th package will certainly take care of it?”
Below are more of the latest Monday morning headlines and developments via Newsquawk…
* * *
Russia’s Kremlin said that Russian President Putin is due to meet US envoy Witkoff on Tuesday. On the Russia-Ukraine peace development, the Kremlin adds that they are not going to engage in megaphone diplomacy.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said a delegation headed by the security council chief travelled to the US for talks, while it was also reported that Zelensky is to visit French President Macron in Paris on Monday.
US and Ukraine negotiations on Sunday focused on where the de facto border with Russia would be drawn under a peace deal, while the five-hour meeting was said to be difficult and intense, but productive, according to two Ukrainian officials cited by Axios.
US Secretary of State Rubio said the meeting with Ukrainians was very productive but noted there is more work to be done, while he added that they have been in touch to varying degrees with the Russian side.
Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister said there was a good start to US peace talks with a warm atmosphere conducive to a potential progressive outcome.
Ukraine’s military hit Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery, while it was also reported that Ukrainian sea drones struck two Gambia-flagged tankers off the Turkish coast on Friday, which were said to be part of a Russian shadow fleet used to bypass Western sanctions.
Russian forces carried out a massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities.
Russia’s Foreign Minister said following a Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea terminal, that the civilian energy infrastructure that was attacked plays an important role in ensuring global energy security and has never been subject to any restrictions or limitations, while they strongly condemned the ‘terrorist attacks’ on CPC and oil tankers.
NATO is considering being “more aggressive” in responding to Russia’s cyber-attacks, sabotage and airspace violations, according to its most senior military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, cited by FT.
NATO is reportedly preparing for the scenario of confronting Russia with limited US support, according to a report by Bloomberg citing a wargame in Transylvania that showed European soldiers defending the continent largely without US support as President Trump reduces US deployments in Europe.
Little public optimism for a quick peace by close of this year:
A gaggle of fake news reporters gathered around President Tump aboard Airforce One Sunday as he traveled back to Washington D.C. after the Thanksgiving weekend, and he let them all know exactly what he thought of them.
Trump dropped several truth bombs as the panicked reporters attempted gotcha questions regarding his third world migration moratorium.
When asked how long he intends to pause migration from countries including Afghanistan and Somalia, Trump shot back, “A long time. We don’t want those people, we have enough problems…You know why we don’t want them? Because many of them are no good and they should NOT be in our country.”
? PRESIDENT TRUMP ON 3RD WORLD MIGRANTS: “We have ENOUGH problems!”
“You know why we don’t want them? Because many of them are NO GOOD and they should NOT be in our country.”
Trump highlighted people from “Countries like Somalia, that have virtually no government, no military — all they do is go around killing each other, then they come into our country and tell us how to run our country. We don’t want them.”
Referring to Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar, Trump blasted “She supposedly came into our country by marrying her brother. Well, if that’s true, she shouldn’t be a congresswoman, and we should throw her the HELL out of the country!”
? BREAKING: President Trump just showed he is DONE with the Somalian BS ??
“Countries like Somalia, that have virtually no government, no military — all they do is go around killing each other, then they come into our country and tell us how to run our country. WE DON’T WANT… pic.twitter.com/wlEbUp6KMs
Trump clarified that he will strip naturalisation from those who break the oath to America.
“If we have criminals that came into our country, and they were naturalized maybe through Biden or somebody that didn’t know what they were doing, if I have the power to do it… I would denaturalise, absolutely!” he stated.
When asked “What do you mean [by] ‘remigration?’” the President responded, “It means – get people OUT that are in our country. Get ’em out of here! I want to get them out! We got a lot of people who shouldn’t be here.”
? MASSIVE: President Trump stuns reporters by confirming REMIGRATION is about to get underway
“If we have criminals that came into our country, and they were naturalized maybe through Biden or somebody that didn’t know what they were doing, if I have the power to do it… I… pic.twitter.com/pEkdPmyv5K
When asked if he stands by calling Tim Walz “retarded,” in his Thanksgiving message,Trump responded, “Yeah! I think there’s something wrong with him. Absolutely. Sure. You have a problem with it?”
“Anybody that would do what he did – allow those [Somalians] into his state, and pay billions out to Somalia…it’s not even a country, it doesn’t function like a country! There’s something wrong with Walz!” Trump added.
? JUST IN – REPORTER: “Do you stand by calling Tim Walz ‘retarded?'”
PRESIDENT TRUMP: “Yeah! I think there’s something wrong with him. Absolutely. Sure. You have a problem with it?” ?
“Anybody that would do what he did – allow those [Somalians] into his state, and pay… pic.twitter.com/AbcKPJqOtO
Trump ended the exchange by bodying the two lead Karens at the head of the gaggle, who were pestering him for details of an MRI he recently had.
“It wasn’t on the brain, ’cause I took a cognitive test and aced it! Which you would be incapable of doing,” he told one of the women before turning to the other and bellowing “YOU TOO!”
?LMFAO! President Trump concluded his press avail aboard Air Force One by BODYING every reporter in the room!
REPORTERS: *Pressing him on his MRI*
TRUMP: “It wasn’t on the brain, ’cause I took a cognitive test and ACED it! Which YOU would be incapable of doing. YOU TOO!” ?? pic.twitter.com/Tk7rur2LRg
You can clearly see that Trump absolutely loves intellectually demolishing these fake media wage monkeys.
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“The Whole Model Is Broken”: ‘Tech Mafia Wife’ Admits ‘We Were Klaus Schwab’s Useful Idiots’
When someone who used to be the queen of elite progressive philanthropy says the entire system failed – and may have been hijacked for something much darker – the world needs to hear it.
As ‘Camus’ writes in a post on X, Nicole Shanahan – ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, former running mate of RFK Jr., and someone who personally signed nine-figure philanthropy checks – just went full whistleblower on the entire Silicon Valley “tech wife mafia” and how they were used.
“…the whole model is broken… the whole model makes everybody worse off…” exclaims Shanahan confirming what Desiree Fixler said, that:
“The WEF sold the “Great Reset” as “build back better” — climate action, ESG, inclusion, and PPP.
In practice, it shifted power away from voters to NGOs, corporate elites, and unelected technocrats.
Policy was relabeled “science” to silence debate.
Markets were warped by ESG scores, carbon taxes, and paper-pushing regulation.
Corporations were turned into enforcers of ideology.”
As Shanahan exposes in this shocking insider account, communities weren’t uplifted – wealth and power were pushed upward, and the ‘tech mafia wives’ were simple ‘useful idiots’:
“I don’t think many of the tech mafia wives realize… they were used to set the groundwork for what Klaus Schwab calls The Great Reset.
Their money especially was being conscripted through a network of NGO advisors, Hollywood, Davos, and their own companies.
A really small group of people… completely blind to how their groundwork is being used to enable these Great Reset policies.”
Then she reflects on these ‘tech mafia wives’ orienting their values around these actions but really just being ‘useful idiots’:
“These women find their meaning through philanthropic work. I really believed I was helping Black communities and indigenous communities rise up…”
For Shanahan, she admits:
“My version of success is those communities are actually uplifted. Not just more money pumped into them.”
But now the problems have gotten worse, she admits:
“Crime worse. Mental health worse. The whole model is broken.
At the end of the day they always go: ‘But climate change…’
Social justice + climate change – it gets progressive women 100% of the time.”
“We got higher energy bills, debased money, an affordability crisis, fewer jobs, and creeping control over how we live and speak.”
This is the one of the most jaw-dropping few minutes of ‘pulling back the curtain’ you will watch this year…
This is the most jaw-dropping 4 minutes and 21 seconds you will watch this year.
Nicole Shanahan — ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, former running mate of RFK Jr., and someone who personally signed nine-figure philanthropy checks — just went full whistleblower on the… pic.twitter.com/fFpN1C5BlV
After an ugly November (the worst since 2018), December is continuing that trend with a big drop overnight that shook what had appeared to be a stabilizing market.
Hawkish BoJ
The overnight plunge appeared to be triggered by Japanese government bond (JGB) futures tumbling on expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise borrowing costs at its December meeting.
Japan’s 2-year government bond yield briefly touched 1.01 percent, the highest since 2008, as traders bet the Bank of Japan’s long era of near-zero rates is ending.
Some 90 minutes later, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a speech that his board might increase interest rates soon.
Traders raised the odds of a BOJ rate hike in December to about 80% after Ueda told business leaders that the central bank “will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate.”
Any hike would be an adjustment in the degree of easing, with the real interest rate still at a very low level, he said.
As Bloomberg reports, the reaction underscored how crypto investors must now reckon with macro forces far beyond the Fed which is widely expected to ease monetary policy at next week’s meeting.
“In the early days, Bitcoin mostly moved to whatever the Fed was signaling, rate cuts, hikes, or balance sheet shifts,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets.
“These days, Bitcoin reacts to the whole central-bank landscape, not just one player.”
The reaction was swift and violent as the the threat to the ‘yen carry trade’ tanked risk assets broadly, but most of all bitcoin as the largest cryptocurrency plunged from around $92,000 to $84,000 before a small rebound back above $86,000.
“It’s a risk off start to December,” said Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX.
“The biggest concern is the meagre inflows into Bitcoin exchange traded funds and absence of dip buyers. We expect the structural headwinds to continue this month. We are watching $80,000 on Bitcoin as the next key support level.”
Over 180,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations at $539 million and the majority of that in the past few hours, reported CoinGlass. Almost 90% of those liquidations were long positions, predominantly in BTC and Ether
Ethereum also tanked, back below $3,000…
Strategy selling?
Things worsened this morning as Bloomberg reports that concerns are rising that Strategy Inc. soon may be forced to sell some of its roughly $56 billion cryptocurrency haul if token prices continue to fall, leading its shares to wobble in pre-market trading.
Strategy’s mNAV — a key valuation metric comparing the firm’s enterprise value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings — sat at about 1.2 on Monday, according to its website, spurring investor fears it may soon turn negative.
“We can sell Bitcoin and we would sell Bitcoin if we needed to fund our dividend payments below 1x mNAV,” Phong Le, Strategy’s chief executive officer, said on a podcast on Friday, noting that it would only be carried out as a last resort.
“There’s the mathematical side of me that says that would be absolutely the right thing to do, and there’s the emotional side of me, the market side of me, that says we don’t really want to be the company that’s selling Bitcoin,” Le added.
“Generally speaking, for me, the mathematical side wins.”
MSTR is trading down 5% in the pre-market
However, after a week of not adding to its Bitcoin hoard, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor appeared to hint in a Sunday post on X that it might soon make further purchases.
Finally, we note that China’s central bank has flagged stablecoins as a risk and has promised to refresh its crackdown on crypto trading, which it has banned since 2021.
The People’s Bank of China said on Saturday, after a meeting with 12 other agencies, that “virtual currency speculation has resurfaced” due to various factors, posing new challenges for risk control.
“Virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies, lack legal tender status, and should not and cannot be used as currency in the market,” the bank said, according to a translation of its statement.
“Virtual currency-related business activities constitute illegal financial activities.”
China’s central bank banned crypto trading and mining in 2021, citing a need to curb crime and claiming that crypto posed a risk to the financial system.
So a triple-whammy for an already sensitive crypto market overnight – is this the weak hand flush needed for the Santa Claus rally to start?
Moscow Paper Claims Ukrainian Drones Hit Russia-Linked Oil Tanker Off West Africa
All eyes are on Russia this week as talks center on a potential Ukraine peace deal that shifts to Moscow. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is en route today and expected to meet with President Vladimir Putin to discuss a Washington-backed, 19-point framework aimed at ending the war.
As Witkoff and Putin discuss a potential peace deal today, pressure on Russia’s shadow tanker fleet appears to be intensifying and broadening.
Ukrainian drones struck two tankers in the Black Sea last week, and now the Russian business daily Kommersant reports that Ukrainian drones off the West Coast of Africa hit another tanker carrying Russian oil.
“The M/T MERSIN tanker, carrying Russian oil, was attacked by Ukrainian drones off the coast of Senegal, Deniz Haber reported on November 30,” Kommersant wrote in a report.
Alarming signs that the battlefield is widening far beyond Eastern Europe.
Ukraine and its Western allies have spent the past several years targeting Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure with kamikaze aircraft and naval drones in an effort to pressure Moscow’s finances. This campaign, accompanied by sanctions, has yet to collapse Russia financially.
However, the Senegal attack only suggests that Ukraine is stopping at nothing to disrupt Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers that fuel profits for Moscow, and in return, fund the war in Ukraine.
Notice that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure jumped to a record last month. The timing comes just as Trump is attempting to bring an end to the nearly four-year war.
The expanding battlefield is a major warning sign.
6,000 Airbus A320 Jets Receive Critical Update After “Intense Solar Radiation” Exposure
Airbus announced early Monday that nearly all A320-family commercial jets have received a critical software update after “intense solar radiation” last month triggered a glitch that could affect flight controls.
“Out of a total number of around 6,000 aircraft potentially impacted, the vast majority have now received the necessary modifications,” Airbus wrote in a press release, adding, “We are working with our airline customers to support the modification of less than 100 remaining aircraft to ensure they can be returned to service.”
Last Friday, Airbus released an Alert Operators Transmission to all airlines operating the narrow-body jet about an urgent software update, warning the fix could cause “operational disruptions to passengers and customers.”
The planemaker said the corrupted flight-control data was caused by “intense solar radiation.”
At cruising altitude, jets are exposed to 100 to 300 times more solar radiation than at ground level, and a solar storm can amplify that exposure enough to disrupt avionics processors, including corrupting memory or causing logic errors.
