Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Flight delays throughout the country could increase as more and more controllers call in sick over their first full missed paycheck due to the ongoing government shutdown, officials warned on Tuesday.

National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) President Nick Daniels also said that many air traffic controllers have temporarily taken on second jobs, citing living expenses such as housing, child care, food, and gas as their primary concerns. That number will increase the longer the shutdown continues, he said.

“This job is stressful enough,” Daniels said Tuesday at La Guardia International Airport in New York.

“We go to work day in and day out and make thousands of decisions. We do it five days a week. Most of us actually do it six and five is hard enough, and we do it in 10 hours a day. Now, you add in the fact that we had a partial paycheck already and we missed a full paycheck.”

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)—already short approximately 3,000 controllers who routinely work six-day, 10-hour shifts—has reported delays as a result of staffing gaps.

The FAA limits landings and takeoffs amid shortages, causing disruptions that last from 30 minutes to more than two hours long. Staffing shortages can even result in temporary ground stops.

Aviation data shows no sharp spike in overall delays, despite the government shutdown beginning Oct. 1.

Analytics firm Cirium determined that about 80 percent of flights at 14 major U.S. airports were on time this month, in line with historical patterns where approximately 20 percent of flights face delays longer than 15 minutes for various reasons.

Although a two-hour staffing-related ground stop at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) on Sunday caused numerous delays, Cirium data shows 72 percent of LAX flights departed on schedule that day.

Though Duffy and Daniels shared concerns over the overburdened workforce of about 30,000 air traffic controllers, they downplayed the risk of a strike.

“Air traffic controllers have to have 100 percent of focus 100 percent of the time,” Daniels said.

“And I’m watching air traffic controllers going to work. I’m getting the stories. They’re worried about paying for medicine for their daughter. I got a message from a controller that said, ‘I’m running out of money. And if she doesn’t get the medicine she needs, she dies. That’s the end.’”

Controllers held demonstrations at 20 airports nationwide, distributing leaflets calling for an end to the shutdown.

“We’re talking to our coworkers about how to get zero-interest loans,” Mike Christine, National Air Traffic Controllers Association’s (NATCA) eastern regional vice president, told Reuters.

New York-area controller Joe Segretto said the situation makes an already tough situation more difficult for trainees in a high-pressure line of work. The shutdown has disrupted hiring and training, contributing to the ongoing staffing shortage. The systems used by air traffic controllers are also dated, as the Government Accountability Office (GAO) underscores broader risks from aging ATC systems and sluggish modernization efforts in the sector.

“The pressure is real,” Segretto said. “We have people trying to keep these airplanes safe. We have trainees—that are trying to learn a new job that is very fast-paced, very stressful, very complex—now having to worry about how they’re going to pay bills.”

Daniels echoed this in a statement posted to the NATCA website on Oct. 24.

“The shutdown is adding stress to air traffic controllers and their families,” he wrote.

Duffy also said that the shutdown, now in its 28th day, has led to students dropping out of the air traffic controller academy in Oklahoma City, adding that it will therefore be harder to close the staffing gap at airports. He said younger controllers might choose a different career path because they can’t go without pay.

“This shutdown is making it harder for me to accomplish those goals,” Duffy said.

Venezuela considers Trinidad and Tobago’s cooperation with the US military as the Trump White House prepares for possible military action against the Caracas government to be a hostile act.

This after on Sunday the USS Gravely, which is outfitted with guided missiles, arrived in Trinidad to conduct joint exercises with Trinidad’s navy, but which was seen as a deep provocation by Caracas. 

For starters, Venezuela’s vice president Delcy Rodriguez said that key energy agreements with Trinidad and Tobago have been effectively canceled.

“Rodriguez, who is also Venezuela’s minister of hydrocarbons, said she would ask President Nicolas Maduro to withdraw from a 2015 agreement that enables neighboring countries to carry out joint natural gas exploration projects in the waters between both nations,” AP detailed. After this, President Maduro declared, “I have approved the measure.”

The USS Gravely is actually one of the very US naval vessels which has been involved in the campaign to destroy alleged drug trafficking speedboats off the Venezuelan coast.

“The prime minister of Trinidad has decided to join the war mongering agenda of the United States,” Vice President Rodriguez said on national television Monday.

By Tuesday, Venezuela declared Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar to be persona non grata amid the escalating tensions.

Venezuela’s National Assembly quickly voted to impose the measure against Persad-Bissessar, formally barring her from entering the country.

STATEMENT: Venezuela denounces military provocation by Trinidad and Tobago in coordination with the CIA to provoke a war in the Caribbean pic.twitter.com/kS0EpaSGGT

— Camila (@camilapress) October 26, 2025

But interestingly Persad-Bissessar hit back, telling AFP, “Why would they think I would want to go to Venezuela?”

A mere seven miles of ocean lies between Trinidad and Venezuela at their closest point, but the Trinidad government is among the few Caribbean leaders to be openly supporting the major US military campaign in the region.

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

As equity valuations approach the record highs of 1999, investors are growing anxious. This unease is partly driven by the media issuing grim warnings, often based in part on CAPE valuations. Consider the following headlines and their summaries.

• The AI valuation bubble is now getting silly – The Guardian (Oct 8, 2025)

  • This article warns that concentration risk in the “Magnificent 7” is extreme. It notes the CAPE is at a dot-com bubble peak, suggesting that when the AI bubble bursts, there will be few places to escape the fallout.

• Extreme caution needed’: Why the Wall Street Boom Might End in Tears – Yahoo Finance (Oct 7, 2025)

  • This piece highlights that the CAPE ratio is more than double its long-term average, indicating lower returns ahead. It points out that extreme valuations have led to periods of weak returns or sharp corrections.

• Famed Warren Buffett Metric Shows Stock Valuations in Dangerous Territory – Business Insider (Oct 1, 2025)

  • This article notes that the CAPE ratio is near its highest level ever. It cites Fed Chair Powell, who called the market “fairly highly valued,” and highlights that 19 out of 20 Bank of America valuation measures are also historically elevated.

The graph shows the S&P 500 and CAPE since 1920. Given how the market performed after the prior two CAPE peaks (1999 and 1929), it’s not surprising to see headlines like the ones above that are fearful.

Instead of assuming that the CAPE ratios of 1929 and 1999 are comparable to today, it is helpful to recognize how Nvidia and a few other big stocks are skewing the CAPE, and what that may mean for the rest of the S&P 500.

First, we provide a brief overview of CAPE and its pros and cons. 

What Is CAPE?

CAPE, or the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio, is a valuation tool based on long-term earnings trends. It differs from most valuation ratios in that it uses 10 years of earnings. Most popular valuation measures use the last year of fundamental data.

The benefit of the longer earnings lookback is that the model forms more accurate valuations based on secular trends and is much less influenced by short-term or one-time events that have little impact on future earnings growth.  

Some argue against the CAPE logic, claiming that past earnings trends are not indicative of future trends. We agree that for specific stocks, this is undoubtedly the case. However, as we show below, there has been a strong correlation between the earnings of the last ten years and those of the following ten years.  The orange and blue lines representing forward and past earnings are close to parallel. Any variance in them can be explained by the oscillating annualized EPS growth rate in green. As shown, it wavers between 4% and 8%.

Bottom line—using ten years of prior earnings has thus far proven to be a reasonable estimate of future earnings. Therefore, CAPE is a good measure to compare valuations over time.

CAPE – Long Term vs Short Term Return Forecasts

Using CAPE to estimate future returns is like betting on football games. According to Chat GPT, the odds of an NFL team winning when they are 14 or more points betting favorites are 85%. Therefore, such high odds should give us confidence in betting on which team will win. However, predicting the exact path to victory — such as when each team will score or the margin of victory — is nearly impossible.

Similarly, CAPE has proven highly reliable at predicting returns for the next 10 years, but it does not specify which months and years within that period will see gains or losses. Consider the two charts below, which compare CAPE levels to 10-year and 6-month forward returns. In the first chart, low CAPE levels indicate high forward returns and vice versa. At today’s level, we should expect returns for the next ten years in a relatively tight range between plus and minus 3%. However, the second graph shows no predictive reliability in forecasting the next six months based on CAPE levels. Based on that graph, we should expect annualized returns of ±30%.

Lastly, the bar chart below shows that the longer the time horizon, the better the correlation between CAPE valuations and forward returns.

Composition Skews CAPE

Due to the ever-changing nature of the S&P 500, every monthly CAPE calculation involves different weightings and sometimes different stocks. For example, the CAPE ratio of 1929 was heavily weighted with industrial, utility, and railroad companies. Today, it is technology-centric. As a more specific example, Nvidia contributed 0.50% to the S&P 500 in 2020. Currently, it accounts for almost 8%.

The Magnificent Seven (Nvidia, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta) account for over a third of the index today. Given their surging market caps and earnings growth, those companies are having an outsized impact on CAPE.

For example, Nvidia, at 8% of the index, posted an EPS of $1.08 last quarter. Its average EPS over the previous ten years was a relatively paltry 18 cents. Does Nvidia’s CAPE reflect reality?

Nvidia And The Magnificent Seven Warp CAPE

Nvidia has a current CAPE ratio of 293, but a more reasonable P/E ratio of 48. Thus, we can reasonably argue that, given the recent surge in Nvidia’s earnings, CAPE is misleading. The same holds to some extent for many of the Magnificent Seven stocks, as we show below.

If we strip Nvidia out of the CAPE calculation, the CAPE for the remaining S&P 500 will fall by nearly 3 points. Moreover, if we take all the Magnificent Seven stocks out of the CAPE calculation, CAPE will decline from 41 to 33. The graph below shows how the Magnificent Seven stocks have increasingly warped the CAPE ratio over the last ten years.

Based on the graph above, we can still say the CAPE ratio is historically high, but it may not be as concerning as we originally thought.

Looking back to 1999, we find that Microsoft had a decent impact on CAPE. At the time, it was the index’s most significant contributor, accounting for 5%. Removing Microsoft from the 1999 CAPE calculation would have made it decline by 2. Removing Intel and Walmart, also in the top five in 1999, would have taken another one from CAPE. Exxon and GE, the remaining top five, had no material impact on the ratio. Simply put, the effect today from the largest stocks is greater than in 1999.

PEG Matters

What separates today from 1999 is current earnings growth. Investors are getting more for their CAPE valuation via recent earnings growth. Per Bloomberg,

 The Magnificent Seven and Broadcom Inc., which collectively account for 37% of the S&P 500, are expected to grow profits by an average of 21%.

Investors should be willing to pay high valuations for more growth, but can extraordinary growth rates for a handful of stocks continue? If so, high market valuations make a lot more sense.

Interestingly, some of the Magnificent Seven stocks, which have expensive P/Es but strong earnings growth, may be more conservative than the bulk of S&P 500 companies, which trade at high valuations but have little earnings growth.

To better appreciate this, we use the PEG ratio (Price/Earnings / Expected Growth). This ratio helps make P/E ratios comparable across companies and industries with different growth rates.

The FinViz heat map below shows the PEG ratio for the S&P 500 companies. Notice the sea of red—high PEG ratios — throughout the S&P 500. However, some of the Magnificent Seven, including MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, and META, are pretty reasonable.

Other Valuations

A CAPE valuation of 30 versus 40 may ease the concerns of a few readers. However, we caution that the stock market peaked at a CAPE of 32 in 1929. No one valuation gauge will tell you where or when the top is. Conversely, high valuations need not revert to the historical norm. Over time, the average valuation can rise. Also, a reversion to average valuations can result from higher-than-expected earnings growth and stocks posting positive but small returns. 

With all those options to consider, we should still recognize that stock valuations are incredibly high, whether or not Nvidia and the other Magnificent Seven stocks are included.

To “fix” the CAPE10, ie, reduce the “Nvidia warp”, to better reflect current valuations, we present the CAPE 2 graph below, based on two years of prior earnings. As shown, the current level is below the levels in 2021 and 1999. However, it is well above the 1929 market top. The high readings of 2004 and 2010 occurred even as earnings were very low due to the respective recessions occurring in 2002/03 and 2008.  They were not representative of earnings during a more stable period of growth.

The table below, courtesy of BofA, lists 20 valuation measures along with their averages, minimums, maximums, and Z-scores. As it shows, all but one measure points to overvaluation. Moreover, 9 of the 20 Z-scores indicate that the respective valuations are more than two standard deviations above the long-term average.

Summary

Most of the straight P/E measures in the table above are around two standard deviations above the average. But both PEG measures, which encompass future growth, are within one standard deviation of each other. This reinforces the idea that the market is expensive but not grossly expensive if you think earnings growth forecasts are accurate.

 Another critical takeaway from this analysis- the market is making a big bet that a small handful of companies can keep powering strong earnings for the entire index.

Oil prices held steady after a three-day drop as investors assessed the impact of Western sanctions against leading Russian crude producers, alongside a mixed industry estimate of US inventory changes.

President Trump will follow through and enforce harsh new sanctions against Moscow to pressure Vladimir Putin into negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, according to Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO.

Indian state-owned refiners are considering whether they can continue to take some discounted Russian oil after the measures were imposed, though some processors will pause purchases for now.

On Tuesday, Indian Oil Corp. said it is “absolutely not going to discontinue” purchases of Russian crude as long as it complies with international sanctions.

“The market is now trying to assess the longer-term impact of the additional sanctions, which will be determined by the quantity of actual barrels removed from supply,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford said in a note.

Overnight prices stabilized after API showed across the board big inventory draws…

API

• Crude -4.0mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline -6.35mm

• Distillates -4.36mm

DOE

• Crude -6.86mm (-900k exp) – biggest draw in 7 weeks

• Cushing +1.334mm

• Gasoline -5.94mm – biggest draw since Oct 2024

• Distillates -3.36mm

The official inventory data confirmed the API’s report with large drawdowns in inventories across crude and the products…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production rose to a new record high last week

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied modestly on the big crude draw

Source: Bloomberg

Oil is on track to notch a third monthly decline, with prices dragged lower by expectations of a global surplus as OPEC+ raises production. Key alliance nations are set to hold discussions this weekend, and may sign off on another supply increase. Traders are also tracking progress toward a US-China trade deal, with Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping due to meet on Thursday.

There is an extremely tight race on between Geert Wilders’ Party For Freedom (PVV), which is often dubbed in mainstream media as ‘far right’, and more ‘moderate’ parties, including the Green Left Labour Party (GL-PvdA), center-left D66 and centrist Christian Democratic Party (CDA) – as Dutch voters cast their ballots across the Netherlands on Wednesday in a close-run snap election.

Key national issues include reining in migration, chronic shortages of affordable housing, high cost of living, national security questions in relation to the Ukraine war and purchasing US military equipment for Ukraine, as well as forming a stable government amid an increasingly polarized Netherlands political scene. While Wilders’ PVV is favored, chances are slim that other parties will work with it to form a coalition, as happened last June. The political winds are blowing to the center, most analysts believe. 

Polls have indicated that even a victory at the ballot box for Wilders will not easily translate into forming a government. Wilders emerged as the clear winner in the previous election in November 2023, but recent polls suggest his support has slipped ahead of Wednesday’s vote.

Rival parties have increasingly ruled out cooperating with him following the collapse of his own governing alliance last June.

“It’s up to the voters today,” Wilders said after casting his vote at The Hague City Hall, surrounded by security guards. “It’s a close call…four or five different parties. I’m confident.”

European media has widely anticipated that the next Dutch government, which could be more influenced by who comes in second in the vote rather than the first, will more likely to come from the center left or center right.

Polls showed over a third of voters to be undecided even up to the eve of the election. “It’s one of the most important elections, because people need to have their faith restored,” Sarah de Lange, professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University, has described.

According to a new BBC review of what’s at stake on Wednesday:

As many as 15 parties are set to win a share of parliament’s 150 seats, but opinion polls suggest four will stand out. Apart from Wilders’ PVV, there is GreenLeft-Labour under ex-EU top official Frans Timmermans, Rob Jetten’s liberal D66 and the centre-right Christian Democrats of Henri Bontenbal.

And The Guardian reviews some key elements of this election as follows:

• The PVV, which finished a shock first in the last election and formed a short-lived, four-party rightwing coalition, has seen its once sizeable lead fade fast. With nearly half the electorate undecided, analysts say the race is too tight to call.
• Final polling averages suggest Wilders’ party could win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament, well down on the 37 it captured in the 2023 elections. Even if it does finish first, all major parties have ruled out going into government with the anti-immigration firebrand.
• Wilders pulled the plug on the outgoing government in June, less than a year after it took office, when the PVV’s coalition partners refused to endorse his radical anti-refugee plans, widely seen as unworkable or illegal.

* * *

Michael Every of Rabobank comments in the following…

In the UK, the new far-left Your Party will launch legal action against three of its ‘rogue’ founders, according to sources, leaving people asking, ‘Whose Party?’ and ‘Whose donation money?’; and

There is a Dutch general election today, where the Netherlands is rightly glued to its own screen and the rest of the world (and markets) likely aren’t, barring a totally unexpected outcome. After all, Politico quotes one of the major party’s election platforms as ‘Make Boring Great Again’.

The key logistical hub of Ukraine’s eastern front – Pokrovsk, has been under steady contention for much of the past year, with Russian forces spending slow, methodical efforts pushing westward to flank just south of the city. 

For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines. It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro.  The city’s defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia’s access to most of the region. If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will be able to more easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.

It’s capture at this point looks imminent, given Ukrainian media is confirming Russian infantry have infiltrated the main logistical district of the city. It’s somewhat sizeable, as it had a prewar population of some 60,000.

“At least 200 Russian infantry armed with automatic rifles, machine guns, and hand-held rockets were moving freely in the southern districts of city, at times ambushing Ukrainian defense forces still generally in control of central and northern districts, according to public statements by army officers to Ukrainian media,” according to Kyiv Post on Wednesday.

Russia’s military has said that Ukrainian forces have been suffering steady and immense losses seeking to defend Pokrovsk.

“Every day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) sends up to 120 soldiers to the town of Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian name – Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk People’s Republic, which indicates its enormous losses in the area,” military expert Vitaly Kiselev told TASS.”

“The enemy still has a strong hold on the city, and has no plans of retreating,” he said. “They still have equipment and manpower here, all the more so that small units of about 15-20 men are being regularly sent there as reinforcements.”

“In fact, groups of 15-20 people arrive there five or six times a day. This shows enormous losses in this area,” the analyst added.

The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies. This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines. 

2/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole and in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.

Read more: https://t.co/LiVFrGnyU4 pic.twitter.com/JqCIzwNaTk

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) October 28, 2025

Where Putin goes from there is hard to say, but a campaign back into Western Ukraine, this time using attrition tactics, would not be unthinkable – especially given the past months have seen incursions in the central oblast of Dnipropetrovsk which began this past summer.

Pokrovsk is, interestingly, valuable for another reason that’s not immediately apparent: It acts as high ground in a nation of lowlands, and high ground allows for more effective use of drones because the signals travel further and are harder to jam with electronic interference. While US-brokered ceasefire efforts have stalled, these developments give Moscow huge leverage if there should be a return to the negotiating table.

In a preview of what is to come today at 2pm from the Fed, moments ago the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bp to 2.25%, as expected, noting that current policy is “about the right level” to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. 

In its statement, the central bank noted the Canadian economy contracted 1.6% in the second quarter amid heightened uncertainty, and said the trade dispute with the US is likely to result in weak growth in the second half of the year, but there will be some help from rising consumer and government spending and as exports and business investment begin to recover.

They said the labor market remains soft with job losses continuing to build in trade-sensitive sectors. The BoC noted inflation was slightly higher than expected and remains sticky

Some more highlights from the statement: 

US Tariffs

• Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than- usual range of risks.
• Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about Z/% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.
• US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber.

Economy

• As a result of US trade actions, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year.
• Canada’s labor market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses.
• The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.

Policy

• If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.
• The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.

In his opening statement, BoC Governor Macklem said rates were cut again to support the economy through adjustment to US trade policy (yes, yes, it’s all Trump’s fault). Some more highlights from what Macklem said, thanks to Newsquawk: For the first time since January and the start of the trade conflict, the Bank is publishing a baseline outlook for economic growth and inflation, rather than alternative scenarios; Focused on ensuring Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Trade

• US tariffs and trade uncertainty have weakened the Canadian economy. We expect very modest growth through the rest of the year, with some pickup in 2026. While this weakness is restraining price increases, the trade conflict is also adding costs for many businesses, putting upward pressure on inflation. We expect these opposing forces to roughly offset, keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The weakness we’re seeing in the Canadian economy is more than a cyclical downturn. It is also a structural transition. The US trade conflict has diminished Canada’s economic prospects. The structural damage caused by tariffs is reducing our productive capacity and adding costs. This limits the ability of monetary policy to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.
• US trade policy remains unpredictable, as events over the weekend reminded us. The range of possible outcomes is wider than usual—we need to be humble about our forecast. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond.

Labor

• The labor market is soft. Job losses have been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, and hiring has been weak across the economy.
• The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September, and wage growth has slowed.

Economy

• GDP growth is expected to resume, but remain weak, averaging about 0.75%. It should then pick up on a quarterly basis in 2026 as exports and investment recover, and average about 1.5% by 2027. This implies excess supply is only taken up gradually.
• While the global economy has been resilient to the rise in US tariffs and increased uncertainty, the impacts are becoming more evident.
• If the economy evolves roughly in line with the outlook in our MPR, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.
• Canadian businesses and households are feeling the consequences of increased US protectionism.

The market reaction was muted: since the rate cut was expected, and coupled with the line that “current policy rate is about the right level”, implying the BOC would pause and observe effects of its recent easing, the USDCAD initially fell from 1.3929 to 1.3916 before stabilizing around 1.3925 after the kneejerk move. In short, a nothingburger. 

September data for the US housing market has been positive so far (with new home sales soaring and existing home sales ‘off the lows’) as mortgage rates trend lower offering some affordability respite for buyers.

However, today’s pending home sales data disappointed, printing unchanged MoM versus expectations of a 1.2% MoM rise (after an upwardly revised 4.2% MoM rise in August)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, on a YoY basis, sales rose 1.5% –  the best since Nov 2024.

The total pending home sales Index pushed further ‘off the record lows’, but is hardly

Source: Bloomberg

“A record-high stock market and growing housing wealth in September were not enough to offset a likely softening job market,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Nonetheless, “mortgage rates are trending toward three-year lows, which should further improve affordability, though the government shutdown could temporarily slow home sales activity.”

Moreover, the so-called “lock-in effect” – in which homeowners resist selling because of their existing low-rate mortgages – is waning and helping to boost inventory.

Source: Bloomberg

By region, contract signings on previously owned homes rose 1.1% in the South to the highest level since March.

Pending sales also climbed in the Northeast, while falling in the West and Midwest.

Pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Russian oil company Lukoil said it plans to sell its international assets after sanctions imposed by the Trump administration targeted the company and fellow Russian energy giant Rosneft in a bid to pressure Russia into ending the war in Ukraine.

The company announced the decision on Oct. 27, saying that the move was a response to “restrictive measures” imposed by several countries, including the United States. The sanctions—announced by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Oct. 22—froze Lukoil’s assets in the United States and barred U.S. companies and individuals from doing business with the company and its subsidiaries.

“Lukoil informs that owing to introduction of restrictive measures against the Company and its subsidiaries by some states the Company announces its intention to sell its international assets,” the oil giant said in a statement.

The company stated that it had begun “consideration of bids from potential purchasers” and would seek an extension of its OFAC “wind-down license” if it needs more time beyond the Nov. 21 grace period deadline to complete transactions.

‘Tremendous Sanctions’

The sanctions are part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s effort to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt military operations in Ukraine and agree to a cease-fire. They represent the first major round of economic penalties imposed on Moscow since Trump’s return to the White House for a second term.

“I just felt it was time,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Oct. 22 while hosting NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. “These are tremendous sanctions. We hope they won’t be on for long. We hope that the war will be settled.”

The measures cover Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for more than half of Russia’s crude oil exports, and nearly three dozen of their subsidiaries. They also open the door to secondary sanctions on foreign banks and companies that continue doing business with the blacklisted companies, effectively cutting off access to the U.S. financial system for violators.

“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who oversees OFAC, said in an Oct. 22 statement. “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war.”

Lukoil’s international holdings are extensive, spanning 11 countries, including oil refineries in Bulgaria, Romania, and the Netherlands and stakes in upstream projects in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, and the Republic of the Congo.

The sanctions are a sharp turn from Trump’s earlier strategy of restraint while pursuing diplomatic channels to end the war. The president canceled a planned summit with Putin in late October, saying that talks had become “a waste of time.” His administration has also pressed countries such as India and China to curb Russian oil imports and warned of penalties for noncompliance.

The UK also imposed sanctions on Lukoil on Oct. 15, with British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper citing the need to pressure Russian leadership into a cease-fire.

“At this critical moment for Ukraine, Europe is stepping up,” Cooper said in a statement.

“Together, the UK and our allies are piling the pressure on Putin—going after his oil, gas and shadow fleet—and we will not relent until he abandons his failed war of conquest and gets serious about peace.”

The UK move targeted Lukoil, Rosneft, and 44 shadow fleet tankers, subjecting them to an asset freeze, transport restrictions, and a ban on UK trust services, meaning that UK companies can no longer help them set up or manage offshore accounts or companies.

Moscow Condemns ‘Unfriendly Act’

At the Kremlin, Putin condemned the U.S. sanctions as an “unfriendly act,” accusing Washington of undermining recently improving relations between the two countries.

“It is an obvious thing and it does not strengthen Russia–U.S. relations that have just started recovering,” he said on Oct. 23, state news agency TASS reported. “Certainly, the U.S. administration harms Russia–U.S. relations by such actions.”

The measures are expected to squeeze Russia’s finances at a crucial time. Oil and gas revenues account for roughly one-third of Moscow’s federal budget, funding both military spending and domestic subsidies that help cushion the economic blow of the war.

Putin said restrictions on Russian oil exports could push global energy prices higher, noting that, unlike Russia, the United States consumes more oil than it sells. He said the sanctions “will not have a significant impact” on Russia’s economy.

Hurricane Melissa pummeled southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, before making landfall in Cuba early Wednesday as an “extremely dangerous” Category 3 hurricane.

Melissa now has a much larger eye, like a monster truck tire, on approach to Cuba.

A broader core replaced the compact one that the storm had over Jamaica. pic.twitter.com/efmJ3aXS8v

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 29, 2025

Damage assessment in Jamaica will begin today, and those with Starlink connectivity on the battered island will be broadcasting the devastating aftermath of a storm that has already caused widespread electricity and internet outages, mainly in the western and central regions. 

⚠️ Update: Real-time network data show the growing impact of Hurricane Melissa across #Jamaica with national connectivity down to 30% of ordinary levels; the incident is attributed to heavy winds and downed lines leaving hundreds of thousands without power and telecoms 🌀⚡ pic.twitter.com/INnBq2JpCk

— NetBlocks (@netblocks) October 29, 2025

“There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness stated, adding, “The question now is the speed of recovery. That’s the challenge.”

Energy and Transport Minister Daryl Vaz told Sky News that eastern regions, including Kingston, were largely spared, but reports from other areas, particularly the western part of the island nation, were entirely devastated by sustained winds of 185 mph, which downed power and telecom lines. 

“We’re hoping to be able to do an assessment tomorrow, but as of right now, the reports that are coming in are catastrophic,” Vaz said in an interview. “Not very much survives a Category 5 hurricane, in terms of infrastructure.”

Footage on social media shows extensive damage. Those with holiday plans to visit Jamaican resorts may want to check on the status of the resort.

#Hurricane #Melissa WRECKED portions of Montego Bay., #Jamaica. @LiveStormsMedia chaser @samdienst captured incredible video as the north and northwest eye wall came through and absolutely trashed the area ripping portions of the roof off and damaging almost everything to some… pic.twitter.com/zG5dE7AOgf

— Brett Adair (@Tornadair) October 29, 2025

BREAKING: Aftermath of monster Category 5 Hurricane Melissa in Black River, Jamaica pic.twitter.com/TkiyTMLj8R

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) October 29, 2025

Extreme flooding from Hurricane Melissa unfolding.

High end severe weather event.

📍Santa Cruz, Jamaicapic.twitter.com/RuSuSmXzWb

— Met4Cast – UK Weather (@Met4CastUK) October 28, 2025

Vaz noted that Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston may reopen for emergency flights on Thursday, while Sangster International in Montego Bay suffered severe damage. Airports are central to Jamaica’s tourism-driven economy, and reports say some Americans are trapped on the island. 

The question now is whether the $150 million catastrophe bond (cat bond) that the Government of Jamaica renewed last year will be triggered.