Nothing like micromanaging and overregulation to help a good ole’ free market breathe and operate vibrantly.

California, already home to the highest gasoline prices in the U.S., is now bracing for another seasonal surge. The state’s energy regulator has cautioned gasoline traders that it is monitoring the market closely as refinery maintenance squeezes supplies.

In a letter to Governor Gavin Newsom last week, the Division of Petroleum Market Oversight pointed to both planned and unexpected refinery outages, noting that such disruptions are common in autumn—and that sharp price increases also hit in 2022 and 2023, Bloomberg reported this week. 

Average prices at California pumps reached $4.66 per gallon on Tuesday, $1.48 above the national average. The state’s unique fuel blends, required under strict environmental rules, make it harder to secure alternative supplies when local refineries shut down. Over time, the industry has also reduced capacity in California, further tightening the market.

So concerned are policymakers about another shortage that they’ve shifted their approach to oil refiners. Newsom, typically a critic of the industry, delayed implementation of a law he championed to cap refining profits. Legislators even debated offering hundreds of millions of dollars to keep a refinery from closing—once an unthinkable step.

Bloomberg writes that while state leaders ease pressure on refiners, traders face heightened scrutiny. Oversight division director Tai Milder reminded them last week that the state “monitors the spot market daily for misconduct.” He warned that “anyone making purchases that drive fuel prices up, while also holding long positions they subsequently cash in on, will face scrutiny.”

California’s fuel market is thinly traded and heavily reliant on voluntary price reporting, making it vulnerable to manipulation. The state has also shown it is willing to act: in 2020, the attorney general sued Vitol Inc. and SK Energy Americas Inc. for manipulating the gasoline market during a 2015 spike. That case ended with a $50 million settlement last year.

President Trump announced plans last week to use tariff revenue as a financial cushion for struggling American farmers as China shuns U.S. agricultural goods. Beijing’s pivot to Brazilian ag suppliers has left Midwest farmers in the nation’s top ag belts fearing a spiral into financial hardship.

At the White House on Thursday, President Trump told reporters, “We’re going to take some of that tariff money that we’ve made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are – for a little while – going to be hurt until it kicks in, the tariffs kick in to their benefit.” 

Trump later told reporters that he has not decided on a final version of the plan and would consult with U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on the matter. 

China’s abrupt pivot to Brazil, after decades of purchasing more than half of the U.S.’s soybeans annually, highlights elevated trade tensions this year as both superpowers attempt to find common ground on a new deal. 

Financial Times noted, “For decades, more than half of all U.S. soybeans went to China, the world’s biggest buyer. But this year, as trade talks between Washington and Beijing stall, not a single American soybean has headed east, leaving farmers struggling to stay afloat as bins fill and prices sag while China turns to record supplies from Brazil.” 

U.S. farmers across the Midwest’s ag belts largely voted for Trump in 2024 and in other previous elections. The problem for the administration is that export markets for some crops are quickly drying up amid this year’s trade war with China and other countries. This has created a potential political vulnerability for the “America First” party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, prompting the administration to consider using tariff revenue to mitigate the financial impact on U.S. farmers.

Rollins recently announced a $10 billion, four-year commitment from Taiwan to offset some of the losses incurred from China. She called this a “game-changer for our farmers & ranchers. America’s producers are BACK on offense & leading the world again!” 

🚨 BREAKING TRADE WIN: Taiwan just committed to $10 BILLION in US agriculture buys over the next 4 years, including soybeans, corn, wheat & beef. 🌾🥩

That’s a game-changer for our farmers & ranchers. America’s producers are BACK on offense & leading the world again! 🇺🇸💪

— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) September 19, 2025

The rejiggering of global supply chains to align with “America First” policies has meant more government planning and less voluntary action in the marketplace. Perhaps this will change.
 

Watch Live:

*   *   *

Update (1643ET):

The New York Post can confirm that the armed suspect who killed at least two people and wounded nine others at the Michigan Church of Latter-day Saints earlier today is 40-year-old Thomas Jacob Sanford. 

Here’s more from NYPost:

Sanford, a US Marine veteran, according to his mom’s Facebook page, rammed his Chevy Silverado truck into the building before unleashing the assault on the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Grand Blanc Township, Michigan, armed with a semi-automatic rifle.

An old Facebook post by Sanford’s mother says the gunman — who died at the scene in a shootout with cops — who served in Iraq from 2004-2008. Law enforcement sources confirmed that Sanford, from nearby Burton, Michigan, is the line suspect

BREAKING: Authorities have identified the Grand Blanc, Michigan church shooter as 40-year-old veteran Thomas Jacob Sanford. pic.twitter.com/R0uIKBQtNo

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 28, 2025

*   *   *

Update (1528ET):

Michigan Church Shooting: Latest Details From Authorities

• At least two people were killed and nine others wounded in a shooting Sunday at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Grand Blanc Township, Michigan, police said.

• Authorities reported that the gunman slammed into the church with a mid-size truck during a service, opened fire, and then set a blaze that engulfed the building. 

• Police said that more victims may be found once it is safe to re-enter the area.

• Officers exchanged gunfire with the suspect, killing him. He was identified as a 40-year-old man from Michigan, but no name has been released, nor has an official motive been disclosed. 

• Shooting comes as members mourned the death of Russell M. Nelson, the president of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

• Grand Blanc Township Police Chief said authorities will execute a search warrant at the suspect’s residence and comb through cell records to “find out if there was a motive.” 

• The FBI has allocated “100 agents to the area” to help get statements from witnesses.

• Trump calls the incident a “yet another targeted attack on Christians.” Top Trump officials have released statements. 

Via Tony Seuga…

*   *   *

Update (1350 ET):

President Trump has been briefed on the mass shooting at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Grand Blanc, near the suburb of Flint, Michigan.

He wrote on Truth Social:

I have been briefed on the horrendous shooting that took place at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, in Grand Blanc, Michigan. The FBI was immediately on scene, and will be leading the Federal Investigation, and providing full support to State and Local Officials. The suspect is dead, but there is still a lot to learn. This appears to be yet another targeted attack on Christians in the United States of America. The Trump Administration will keep the Public posted, as we always do. In the meantime, PRAY for the victims, and their families. THIS EPIDEMIC OF VIOLENCE IN OUR COUNTRY MUST END, IMMEDIATELY!

*  *  *

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*  *  *

A mass shooting and fire were reported at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in the Grand Blanc area, near the suburb of Flint, Michigan, about an hour’s drive north of Detroit. Law enforcement said the shooter has been “neutralized,” and reports indicate there are multiple victims, including children.

Here is what’s known so far:

The Grand Blanc Township Police Department provided more details about the situation in a Facebook post, stating: “There has been an active shooter at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints on McCandlish Road. There are multiple victims and the shooter is down. There is no threat to the public at this time. The church is actively on fire.”

Law enforcement told CNN that children are among the wounded in the mass shooting at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints earlier today. 

Grand Blanc church pic.twitter.com/hb4JKf5kwi

— Julie J (@Malkowski6April) September 28, 2025

“I drove up before a lot of the police and ambulances got here, got out of my truck and ran towards it to see if there was anything I could do to help,” resident Tony Deck told local paper Detroit Fress Press, adding, “There was a silver Chevy Silverado that had been driven into the side of the church — not even through the doors. … It’s solid brick.”

🚨 BREAKING: An IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICE (IED) was just removed from a truck near the church that was shot up and lit on fire in Grand Blanc, Michigan, per scanner.

WTF. pic.twitter.com/8cwfaGOGvt

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 28, 2025

Deck said, “There were at least four yellow canvases over dead bodies that I could see at the time.”

On X, FBI Director Kash Patel said that the agency is “tracking reports of the horrific shooting and fire at an LDS church in Grand Blanc, Michigan.”

Patel confirmed the FBI will be assisting local police.

“Violence in a place of worship is a cowardly and criminal act. Our prayers are with the victims and their families during this terrible tragedy,” Patel emphasized.

We are tracking reports of the horrific shooting and fire at an LDS church in Grand Blanc, Michigan. @FBI agents are on the scene to assist local authorities.

Violence in a place of worship is a cowardly and criminal act. Our prayers are with the victims and their families…

— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) September 28, 2025

Also, Attorney General Pam Bondi posted on X that she has received a briefing on today’s shooting.

I am receiving briefings about what appears to be a horrific shooting and fire at an LDS church in Grand Blanc, Michigan. @FBI and @ATFHQ agents are en route to the scene now.

Such violence at a place of worship is heartbreaking and chilling. Please join me in praying for the…

— Attorney General Pamela Bondi (@AGPamBondi) September 28, 2025

No details about the shooter have been released on official channels. Today’s incident comes weeks after a transgender mass shooter carried out a horrific attack on Christians at Annunciation Catholic Church and School in Minneapolis.

*This story is developing… 

• Authorities confirmed the shooter is neutralized, but fire engulfed the entire church.

• Children are among the wounded. 

• The suspect appears to have driven a truck into the side of the church. 

• Residents have been urged to avoid the area.

Authored by Jim Bovard

Henry David Thoreau was one of America’s most eloquent and incisive philosophers. His derision of unjust laws in his essay on “Civil Disobedience” is still catnip 175 years later. His summons to individuals to march to the beat of their own drum is a message that will continue to resonate as long as drums and dissonance exist. Thoreau vividly debunked the folly of people squandering their lives stockpiling unnecessary possessions.

But in his final years, Thoreau mutated into an apologist for bloodthirsty fanaticism and helped foment the American Civil War. Thoreau’s derision of prosperity and of freedom of contract continue to animate anti-capitalist zealots in our time. When Thoreau presumed he was rising above mere economic considerations, he was paving the road to serfdom.

Thoreau’s best-known work is Walden—his chronicle of living by a Massachusetts pond for a couple years. In the book’s peak piety passage, Thoreau declared, “None can be an impartial or wise observer of human life but from the vantage ground of what we should call voluntary poverty.” But Thoreau’s poverty was a kabuki performance. His cabin was a mere 20 minutes away from his mother’s dinner table, where he often took repast.

In the years before the Civil War, Thoreau was almost alone in howling that affluence was damning America. Thoreau bewailed that people were being “ruined by luxury and heedless expense” and proclaimed that the “only cure… is in a rigid economy, a stern and more than Spartan simplicity of life and elevation of purpose.”

Thoreau’s definition of “heedless expense” apparently included anyone not living in a ramshackle cabin like his at Walden. In the 1840s, the average house in the United States had about 1000 square feet and was occupied by 5.5 people, according to the Census Bureau. People had no indoor plumbing, refrigerators, central heating, or electricity. Did Thoreau believe that Americans would be loftier souls if those 5.5 people were squeezed into 550 square feet instead of a thousand square feet of living space? “Ruined by luxury” was not the reason why the average life expectancy in Massachusetts in the 1840s was 38 years.

Thoreau whooped up minimalism as the one true liberation. “With respect to luxuries and comforts, the wisest have ever lived a more simple and meager life than the poor,” he declared in Walden. Barely 20 miles from his cabin, Boston was being deluged by haggard souls fleeing a famine that killed 10 percent of the population of Ireland. Refugees arrived on “coffin ships” with a stratospheric death rate and squeezed into ramshackle tenements, plagued by outbreaks of typhoid, cholera, and tuberculosis.

Food was sparse and diets were rarely healthy, helping spur a far higher mortality rate among Irish immigrants than other city residents. Thoreau disdained the Irish for their “coarse” and “brutish” ways. Thoreau scoffed that “often the poor man is not so cold and hungry as he is dirty and ragged and gross. It is partly his taste, and not merely his misfortune.” My ancestors fled Ireland’s infamous potato famine and arrived in America while Thoreau was at Walden.  

Thoreau’s Original Sin is his contempt for voluntary exchange among private citizens. Thoreau proclaimed that “trade curses everything it handles.” Thoreau talked as if there was a spiritual calculus that made society poorer every time that two parties made a mutually profitable agreement.

Except, of course, when Thoreau was the one profiting. Thoreau boasted that he grew seven miles of rows of beans at Walden. His memoir would have been more candid if he added a postscript to his jeremiad: “Trade is a great evil and… hey buddy, ya wanna buy some beans?” Thoreau sold his surplus beans and bought rice, pork, molasses, apples, and farming supplies. Do people lose part of their soul when they swap beans for bacon or what?

Thoreau proclaimed that “trade curses everything it handles; and though you trade in messages from heaven, the whole curse of trade attaches to the business.” Except when you get a really good price for your “messages from heaven.” Thoreau had the best volunteer literary agent in America—New York Tribune editor Horace Greeley—whom Thoreau met when he was briefly tutoring on Staten Island. Greeley arranged to sell one of Thoreau’s essays for $75 in 1849. This was more than double what Thoreau spent to build his house at Walden—$28.12—and more than 8 times as much as Thoreau’s profit from growing beans—$8.71. (The only way that Thoreau showed a profit from those beans was presuming that his own labor was worthless.) That $75 in 1849 would be roughly $2500 in current dollars, excellent pay nowadays for an essay for 99 percent of aspiring writers. Thoreau paused his principles long enough to cash the check. Greeley wanted to sell more such pieces but Thoreau preferred to devote himself to writing books instead of articles.

Thoreau’s disdain for voluntary exchanges is dicey to reconcile with how he survived selling his own talents. He declared in Walden, “For myself I found that the occupation of a day-laborer was the most independent of any, especially as it required only thirty or forty days in a year to support one.” Thoreau—whose townsmen recognized as a Harvard University graduate—wasn’t hiring himself out to dig ditches. His primary income in his thirties and early forties came from his work as a surveyor that paid double or triple the wage received by unskilled labor. By developing a well-paid talent, Thoreau earned enough working part time to help pay to publish his first book, A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers (1849).

Thoreau thrived before surveyors were compelled to get prior approval from officialdom. Entry into almost a third of all occupations is now restricted by government licensing. Government regulations have spurred credentialist mania that make it more difficult to thrive without a college degree. Government restrictions and mandates have imposed far more barriers to independent living than most Thoreau fans recognize.

Thoreau—like other Transcendentalists—had a weakness for moral absolutes that could quickly spiral into drivel. Thoreau castigated railroads and declared that “the swiftest traveler is he that goes afoot.” A day’s wages at that point was 90 cents—which was the same fare for 30 miles rail travel. Thoreau said it would be faster to simply walk that distance rather than do a day’s work and then pay to ride the railroad. Thoreau proclaimed this as “the universal law, which no man can ever outwit, and with regard to the railroad even we may say it is as broad as long.”

Thoreau neglected to include the expiration date for his “universal law.” Thoreau’s “rebuttal” of rail travel was practically out of date by the time Walden was printed 8 years after he left the pond. Rail travel had plunged in price by the end of the century, with some routes costing only a penny a mile for non-first-class passengers. At the same time, wages for unskilled laborers in Massachusetts more than tripled during the 1800s.

Thoreau railed against railroads in part because they were binding together broader swaths of humanity than local towns and villages. Thoreau preferred to keep localities relatively isolated and untainted by humanity beyond the county line. Thoreau rhapsodized about growing beans but the farmland in his part of Massachusetts was far less productive than farmland in Ohio and Indiana. Thoreau fretted about the new competition that local farmers faced but ignored how soaring agricultural productivity could greatly reduce the percentage of people toiling on the land to feed themselves and their families.

Thoreau was able to conduct his “experiment in living” because his friend Ralph Waldo Emerson had recently bought a 14-acre patch of land by that pond. Emerson could afford to buy that parcel in part thanks to the profits from his essay “Self-Reliance,” published a few years earlier. Emerson allowed Thoreau to temporarily live on that land in return for clearing some of the briars and trees.

Private land ownership was the prerequisite of Thoreau’s independent living. What would have happened if Thoreau had tried to do the same thing on land owned by the National Park Service (which was not created until 1916)? The authorities might have viewed him as a squatter and burned down his cabin including all his books and manuscripts in progress while he was out fishing.

While Thoreau portrays private possessions as burdens to self-liberation, earlier Americans recognized property as a bulwark of freedom. In the 18th century, property was equated with “liberty because property secured independence. Material goods were valued less for their market worth, as a means of economic development, or as a capital resource, than as a guarantee of individual autonomy,” as law professor John Phillip Reid noted in his classic work, The Concept of Liberty in the Age of the American Revolution. Such autonomy allows people to follow their own values or seek to build their own destiny. Hungarian economist Janos Kornai—a courageous dissident in the Soviet Bloc—observed in 1981: “The further elimination of private ownership is taken, the more consistently can full subjection be imposed.” Perhaps that is why so many environmentalists and leftists nowadays want to destroy private property.

We can appreciate Thoreau’s brilliance while rejecting his follies. It is possible to avoid deifying possessions without glorifying poverty. Seeking to “rise above economics” too often merely unleashes politicians to drag nations to their ruin.

Democrats expressed “national outrage” after the ICE arrest of Ian Roberts, an illegal alien from Guyana who somehow became the Superintendent of Des Moines Public Schools, the largest school district in Iowa. Roberts competed as an Olympic athlete and distance runner for Guyana 25 years ago, but this apparently didn’t help him escape immigration enforcement and his active warrants.

At the time of his arrest, Roberts was working as the Superintendent despite being an illegal alien with a final order of removal and no work authorization. He was caught with a firearm in his possession (which is illegal to carry for a non-citizen), as well as a hunting knife and $3000 cash. Roberts had previous warrants for weapons possession charges in February of 2020.  

Democrats claim that these ICE arrests and Trump’s deportation policies are directly to blame for the now numerous shootings committed by leftist activists. In other words, conservatives who are enforcing constitutional immigration laws are to blame when leftists try to kill them.

During a targeted enforcement operation on Sept. 26, 2025, officers approached Roberts in his vehicle after identifying himself, but he sped away. Officers later discovered his vehicle abandoned near a wooded area. State Patrol assisted in locating the subject and he was taken into ICE custody.

“This suspect was arrested in possession of a loaded weapon in a vehicle provided by Des Moines Public Schools after fleeing federal law enforcement,” said ICE ERO St. Paul Field Office Director Sam Olson. “This should be a wake-up call for our communities to the great work that our officers are doing every day to remove public safety threats. How this illegal alien was hired without work authorization, a final order of removal, and a prior weapons charge is beyond comprehension and should alarm the parents of that school district.”

The arrest spurred a protest outside the federal courthouse in Des Moines.

In response to the arrest, protesters mobilized under what appears to be the Party for Socialism and Liberation, a radical leftist group linked to the Los Angeles riots and connected to Neville Roy Singham, a U.S. billionaire with reported ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and to extremist organizations that fuel division and civil chaos nationwide. 

Is this not insane, look at the size of this crowd

These people are protesting demanding Ian Roberts, the illegal superintendent of Des Moines Public Schools who fled ICE be released

He’s an illegal making $300,000+ per year paid for by taxpayers

This protest has to be paid pic.twitter.com/yjGhrC8HIn

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) September 27, 2025

Video and images show professionally produced “Free Roberts” signs with PSL symbols, indicating the protest was likely artificial rather than organic. The activity aligns with the broader protest-industrial complex and appears linked to dark-money NGO networks backed by Singham.

Surprise, surprise.

The Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL)—a Communist group—is showing up at the protests in Des Moines in support of conman and alleged illegal alien Ian Roberts.

Preprinted signs are always proof you’re not looking at an organic protest. pic.twitter.com/mPjEewIWsZ

— Laura Powell (@LauraPowellEsq) September 28, 2025

Civil terrorism expert Jason Curtis Anderson of One City Rising comments on the story and provides readers with additional context about PSL’s protest involvement:

The Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL) is a core component of the Neville Roy Singham operation. Their #1 goal is to exploit the fault lines in our society, destabilizing the existing system, and induce the American population into supporting communism. 

The PSL is their political party, which runs people for office, and last year, ran Claudia De La Cruz for President, getting her on the ballot in 19 states. The PSL played a lead role in the nationwide campus encampments, but the wider Singham network also has their own network of educators. They are capturing the universities from the top down and bottom up. 

The PSL protesting on behalf of armed conman (and alleged illegal alien) Ian Roberts serves all of their agendas: 

• It shows solidarity with people of color

• It shows solidarity with illegal immigrants 

• It attacks ICE (The most violent anti-ICE riots were in California and Texas, both led by the PSL) 

• It gives them an excuse to create more social division and bloviate about how this is a fascist country 

Nobody in America should want a foreign national who was arrested with a loaded gun and $3k in cash around their kids. But for the PSL and the wider Singham network, they don’t want America to abide by laws, especially as it pertains to immigration. This event marked a new enforcement in this sector. A chess piece was taken off of the board, and they are angry about it. Capturing education is a huge part of Singham’s strategy, and while Ian Roberts was not ‘in network’ just yet, the Singham network has already made significant progress on developing a “network of educators” to help them carry out their goals. 

The Iowa Board of Educational Examiners issued Roberts a license to serve as Superintendent in the state in July 2023, according to Norris.

“There is new information that has been made public that we did not know, and we have not been able to verify,” Norris said.

Roberts entered the US on a student visa in 1999, on which he overstayed. He had no work order and was given a final order of removal by an immigration judge in May 2024 (under Joe Biden), according to the DHS statement.  Des Moines public school officials claim they were not aware of the order of removal.  The leftist sentiments and calls for “radical empathy” from those same officials suggest, however, that they were likely aware of his immigration status and hired him anyway.

Not surprising…

I found this bio on the British Amazon for Dr Ian Roberts, from around 2011.

What it shows is that Roberts’ career was that of an itinerant charter school principal in rough urban school districts. Very few of these schools got “turned around.” Many have since closed. pic.twitter.com/RjmFsIYa5c

— CowLivesMatter (@ProtesterLone) September 27, 2025

The arrest highlights the dark cloud of far-left ideology plaguing the U.S. school system and the unfortunate reality that many district officials enable the spread of woke propaganda in American education. It also underscores the Democrats’ doubling down on ignorance, showing more sympathy for criminals than for innocent citizens. Moreover, the arrest and subsequent protest mobilization reveal how Democrats and their radical leftist dark-money NGO networks mobilize force whenever their power is threatened, especially when one of their own is removed from a position of authority within Des Moines public schools. Remember: indoctrination and nation-killing policies often begin in classrooms – and Democrats used an illegal alien to spread toxic woke. 

*  *  *

ATTENTION: Free shipping deal for all meat ends tonight! Secure your order now for delivery by Wednesday.

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Filet Mignon and other goodies (11 lbs)

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Beef, Chick & Pork Trio

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Meandering Through the Narratives

Today, we will briefly run through the narratives that are driving markets and shaping the economy. We had the opportunity to discuss many of these during the first ½ hour of Bloomberg Surveillance on Wednesday morning.

Academy also published our monthly Around the World Podcast (also on iTunes and Spotify), focused on a range of key geopolitical issues facing us all. This dovetailed well with the “print edition” of Around the World with Academy Securities.

The i-Shaped Economy

We had some interesting discussions around last weekend’s What Shape is the Economy? There seems to be agreement that “little i” represents the fact that a small segment of the population is doing extremely well, which isn’t reflected in either the K or k-shaped economy that so many people like to use. There is more debate on how “the stick” in the i is doing. We argued that basically it is okay, but got some pushback that those outside of the elite circle are struggling. Concern about jobs (not actual job losses, but concern about job losses) came up frequently as did indications that the consumer, at all levels, is stretched (delinquencies for lower income consumers, and “trading down” for even higher income consumers). The arguments against the vast majority doing well were reasonably compelling, but for now, I’m still in the “most people are okay to good with a few doing extremely well” camp.

Ra-Ra-RasPUTIN

Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group weighed in on Russia’s Air Space Incursions, in a SITREP and in the podcast mentioned earlier in this report. The President urged for NATO members to take a tough stance on such incursions during the United Nations General Assembly.

This certainly adds a new dimension to the war in Europe, but what I am most interested in, is that “suddenly” everyone is discussing the possibility of Europe taking Russia’s frozen reserves, and using the money to fund the war effort and their military spending. We advocated for this possibility two weeks ago in Ra-Ra-RasPUTIN and believe that this is the most important development in the war. More important even than Russia’s air space violations. Why? Because Russia is expecting these reserves to be returned (presumably, some may be spoken for by those countries that supply Russia with military equipment or components that Russia is using), so not getting them will hurt. At the same time, using that money to buy weapons (primarily from American suppliers) for the Ukrainians puts pressure on Putin in the battlefield.

The situation could get worse before it gets better, but even the threat of confiscating the reserves as some form of war reparations is a massive step in forcing Putin to reconsider his current stance of “business as usual” in Ukraine.

Peace Through Strength

A flurry of stories hit the tape on Thursday that the Secretary of War was calling a large number of senior flag officers (1-star and above Generals and Admirals, from the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps) to Virginia for some meetings.

There is little (or no) information on what is going to be discussed. General Spider Marks gave his thoughts to the nation on CNN yesterday. There has been some reporting that this is preparing the military for some personnel changes, in the event of a Government Shutdown.

I am lucky enough to be in D.C. on Monday and Tuesday next week (ahead of our annual Geopolitical Summit in Annapolis) and hope to get some more color.

My thoughts are more along the lines of this is a “rebranding onsite.”

• The department (via executive order) has been changed from the Department of Defense to the Department of War. That certainly conveys a different message.
• We have launched successful (and unprecedented) strikes against the main Iranian Nuclear Facilities and Struck Drug Vessels from Venezuela. Both of these acts go beyond just having a more aggressive posture and actually demonstrated the willingness to use our military capabilities. We have argued that going back as far as the attack on Soleimani, deterrence is only truly effective if your adversaries believe you will use your capabilities.
• Hegseth has been vocal about cultivating a “warrior ethos” mentality and may want to make sure that his vision is thoroughly understood and supported.
• More nuanced, but fitting with the theme, has been a push to be less restrictive on rules of engagement. Some messaging to senior officers from all branches of service would be consistent with that.

My expectation is that we will see steps taken to make deterrence more effective and to more thoroughly re-establish Peace through Strength.

My speculation on the goals of the meeting could be wrong, but all of our GIG members involved have cited re-establishing Peace through Strength as a priority for this administration. It is also a crucial step towards being able to reduce spending while maintaining global order.

The “Mythical” Neutral Rate

I was somewhat surprised, pleasantly, that new Fed board member used his first public speaking opportunity to argue that the so-called “neutral rate” is lower than the Fed previously thought, warranting significant rate cuts even in a stable economy.

My “enjoyment” from this topic was primarily due to watching any number of people defend Fed policy, by arguing that no one really knows what the neutral rate is, and that it changes anyways.

• You cannot know the neutral rate because no one knows the neutral rate.
  • Therefore, current policy is correct.

I suspect that this rather “wonky” discussion will help pave the way for a more “brute force” push to cut rates faster than the market is pricing in.

Look for lower yields (after the recent rise) and yield curves to continue to flatten (2s / 30s hit their lowest level since early August last week).

ProSec™

Production for Security is finally catching on, at least as a political agenda and investment thesis, even if the phrase hasn’t gained popularity.

There are a number of stocks that have run up, following the leads of:

• MP Materials (ticker MP), a “fully integrated” rare earth producer, that saw an investment from the Department of Defense along with some loans provided by large banks.
• Intel (INTC), which continues to generate headlines and higher stock prices.
• Lithium America (LAC) gapped higher this week surrounding renegotiation of a $2.26 billion Department of Energy loan (as reported by Bloomberg).

We continue to look for companies (many with small market caps) that could be integral in jump-starting the ability to produce and refine things critical to national security (chips, commodities, and even some pharmaceuticals). We also see this investment thesis going global.

It seems that more countries are looking at their vulnerabilities and at least starting to think about ways to produce some core amount of what is necessary on their own.

Having said that, a lot of questions have come up about how this is being done.

• In general, I’m supportive of the American taxpayer owning stakes in crucial companies. In some cases, the government is a purchaser of that company’s goods, so taxpayers benefit from their own money being spent.
• Grants or subsidies have been used in the past. Those tend to benefit the stakeholders, who are not the U.S. taxpayer. They often have “strings attached” to try to force companies in certain ways for the admin (at the time) to get their policy objectives achieved. That too is fraught with potential issues, as it may create inefficiencies at the company. Maybe it benefits the public well enough, but that is a tricky calculation.
• I would like to see rules laid out, and maybe even an oversight board, to monitor the investments and to make it clear what the government is allowed or not allowed to do with/for companies owned. Should it be completely an arm’s length transaction? That would reduce the potential for interference in the marketplace, but does it provide maximum benefit for the taxpayer and the policy initiatives?
  • As discussed last weekend, I’d like to have some clarity on rules governing what can and cannot be done. Some effective guidelines need to be in place. Having said that, what I would like (and will advocate for) is not the reality of what we have, and we’d be remiss not to trade and plan for the situation we have.

I’m not sure Graham and Dodd have a chapter for investing in this style of governance, but we need to have one in our own investing and planning playbook.

From Molecules to Electrons

Mike Rodriguez, our head of Sustainable Finance, came to my rescue this week. I’ve been stuck on trying to get people to change the equation from Energy = Oil to Energy = Electricity. He pointed out how old that made me sound, and converted me to discussing the shift from molecules (fuel) to electrons (electricity).

Electricity inflation may be the single most important component of inflation we have ever faced.

With some “minor” inconveniences (depending on where you live and work), you can cut back on gasoline purchases. Do more errands per trip. Carpool (they even have helpful lanes for that). Also, unless you are driving a lot, you are probably going to the gas station once a week at most. So, while it hurts to see gas surge at the pump, it isn’t the end of the world (and I’ve argued for some time, that oil prices going higher are probably more or less neutral for the economy given the number of jobs and average pay, for those in the fossil fuel sector).

Food inflation is awful and painful, but “substitution” is a real thing. You can “trade down” in terms of quality or type of food, to reduce costs. Definitely worse than gas inflation, but it is spread over so many items and happens a little each day, that it seems to get lost, at least a little, in the shuffle.

Electricity is tricky. We can all turn off lights and monitor power (maybe demand that electronic goods don’t all now come with lights that seem to stay on whether you want them on or not, but that is starting a rant we don’t have time for today). To the extent EVs are driving demand, then the same rules laid out above can apply. But refrigeration? How do you control that? Air conditioning? What temperature you live at affects your sleep, which in turn affects everything else in your life (yeah, I’ve been getting converted into a healthy sleep nut). Also, unlike the gas tank, which you watch every time you are in your car, very few of us (I hope almost no one) goes outside and watches how fast the electric meter is turning. It is always kind of a “surprise” when you see the electric bill. How much did I use? What was the cost?

I’ve probably understated the risks of other inflation and overstated the risks of electricity inflation, but I think it is going to become a major issue in upcoming elections.

It took electricity over a decade to rise just over 10% (2009 to 2020). Since then, it has risen closer to 40%! So far, there is no indication that the costs are stabilizing.

The production of electrons may be the most important part of any government’s ProSec™ strategy!

I don’t see any way around using nuclear. While many sustainable energy projects (especially wind) seem to be out of favor with the President, I don’t see how they don’t play a major role in our future. If anything, sustainable, especially solar, provide the quickest way to ramp up electron production.

I could spend months trying to figure out a viable strategy, but sadly, I think all we have to do is look at China and charts of their solar energy production (going vertical) and their nuclear power plant building (they may be building more plants than the rest of the world combined), to know what other countries should be considering.

My portfolio is littered with companies in this sector as not only is it a major growth opportunity in its own right, but I also see plenty of opportunity for ProSec™ to be pushed into action. Again, I’ve been primarily focused on the U.S. but I see this as a truly global opportunity.

Circularity in AI

The one narrative that seems to be “circulating” in the data center/AI story is some signs of “circularity.” On one hand there is a virtuous circle. Companies are interconnected, where the growth in one, drives growth in another, which in turn, winds up helping the first company in the chain. We have seen the entire industry grow rapidly, with at least some evidence of a virtuous circle.

For the first time, I’m hearing (even from strong supporters of the space and valuations) concerns that the leaders are too intertwined and the space is susceptible to a pullback.

Against that is increasing evidence, in earnings reports and company calls, that AI and data centers are helping generate efficiencies. That is what we need to continue that component of the market rally (and economic strength). It should also help let the rally expand beyond the select few (think little i) to more companies that are reaping the benefits of their spending.

Maybe both can be true? The growth can continue but the bulk of the benefit (in terms of stock prices) might accrue to a broader swath of companies?

Bottom Line

No shortage of narratives impacting markets and the economy. Not just domestically, but also globally.

We head into this week:

• Optimistic on Europe and global bond yields.
• All-in on electron production and ProSec™.
• Somewhat nervous about overall equity market levels.
• Moderately concerned that the “victory laps” around tariffs have gotten very far ahead of themselves (tariff revenue for the past month came in at $31 billion, about the same as the prior month, bringing us to about $150 billion since March and putting us on a run rate of about $380 billion). We should start seeing more data impacted by tariffs, including Q4 earnings.
• Keep an eye on crypto. Bitcoin has been worth watching (and owning) under this admin, but it approached August lows this weekend as we wrote this report.

It should be another interesting week, as we have month and quarter end Tuesday, as I “meander” across the country with D.C. and Annapolis this week, followed by Chicago and Milwaukee next week. I look forward to seeing many of you in person this autumn!

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Are we wise enough to refuse politicians’ offer of “free money” to spend today that was stolen from our future, and from our future generations? Probably not.

Can Social Security be saved for future generations? Many have already concluded it’s hopeless, and if the current trajectory is left untouched, that is pretty much baked in. Only a radical reform of the program’s basic purpose, design and funding mechanisms could return the program to anything resembling sustainability and fairness.

Let’s start with a thought experiment: what if Social Security (SSA) had been an authentic pension plan rather than a pay-as-you-go social welfare program? The program’s accounting artifices obscure the reality that there is no “trust fund” of cash sitting in an account somewhere; all benefits are paid out of taxes collected from workers and employers today.

An authentic pension plan deducts a percentage from workers’ earned income and deposits these into a fund that earns income. The fund is in effect a savings account that accumulates the monthly deposits and interest until the worker retires, at which point the fund starts disbursing monthly retirement payments and continues to collect interest on the fund’s remaining balance.

In contrast, the SSA “trust fund” is an accounting gimmick that makes everyone feel warm and fuzzy, but it’s nothing more than self-serving delusion. The “trust fund” holds “non-marketable securities,” a nice way of masking the truth which is when SSA payroll tax revenues don’t cover SSA expenditures, the Treasury makes up the difference by selling Treasury bonds–the same way it pays for all other deficit spending.

When Social Security was launched in the late 1930s, the benefits were modest, and many people didn’t live long enough to collect benefits at age 65. The taxes collected from employers and employees were modest. The percentage of the populace who qualified to receive SSA benefits was also modest, while the population paying SSA taxes included every formally employed worker and their employee.

Fast-forward to 1970, the first year I paid SSA taxes as a 16-year old field worker in the summer before my senior year of high school. As the chart below notes, the US population in 1970 was 203 million, and the 25.7 million people who received SSA benefits were 12.6% of the total population. Total SSA program costs were $32 billion. For comparison’s sake, the Department of Defense (DoD) budget in 1970 was $80 billion.

In 2025, the situation has changed. The US population increased 67% to 340 million, the number of SSA beneficiaries has nearly tripled from 25.7 million to 74.5 million, and the program now costs about $1.6 trillion annually–almost double the 2025 DoD budget of $840 billion.

As noted on the chart below, SSA program costs have doubled from $800 billion in 2013, only 12 years ago, to $1.6 trillion today.

As is common when programs have essentially unlimited budgets and vast tax revenue streams, mission creep expanded those eligible to receive SSA benefits to include disability and Supplemental Security Income (SSI). These additional beneficiaries added to the program costs without increasing the tax rate collected from employers/employees, which has been unchanged at 12.4% (6.2% each from employer and employee) since 1990.

(The 2.9% Medicare payroll tax rate collected with SSA payroll taxes has been unchanged since 1986: 1.45% each for employer and employee.)

To answer this question–what if Social Security (SSA) had been an authentic pension plan rather than a pay-as-you-go social welfare program?–I did a deep dive into my own 55-year record of SSA contributions. This required some heavy lifting, as annual changes in inflation and the interest rate paid must be accounted for.

I used the BLS inflation calculator to adjust annual inflation, and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield as the benchmark for interest–in other words, as if my entire SSA payroll tax had been invested at the end of each year in 10-year US Treasury bonds. Yes, I know there are many quibbles with these benchmarks, but at least we can agree they are reasonable benchmarks.

The SSA calculates your benefit based on your highest 25 years of income, so the lowest-income 30 years of my 55 years of paying SSA and income taxes are dropped. The SSA also considers the average income of full-time workers: SSA National Average Wage Index. (On rare occasions, my income exceeded the average, but was generally sub-average.)

Adjusting your income for inflation and then organizing the adjusted number from highest to lowest offers interesting insights into the purchasing power of your wages over time. These reflect each decade’s broad-based standard of living, as the higher the purchasing power of one’s wages, the higher one’s standard of living.

Adjusted for inflation, my highest earnings years were: 1989, 1997, 1990, 1985, 1976 and 1977. Two in the 1970s, when I was 23 and 24 years old, two in the 1980s, and two in the 1990s, decades in which more of the economic expansion “trickled down” to wages, a trend that ceased by the turn of the century when the dot-com bubble burst.

It is a sobering reflection on the US economy that the purchasing power of my wages as an apprentice carpenter at age 23 were rarely equaled in the five decades since. In terms of what my wages could buy, my earnings have never gone as far as they did in the mid-1970s, which is close to the peak of labor’s share of the national income (chart below).

By pure happenstance, my monthly Social Security retirement benefit is within a few dollars of the national average, so my record happens to reflect the national average. (I started drawing my benefit at full retirement age 67. I continue to pay both employee and employer SSA payroll taxes on my self-employed income as a scribbler, ahem, “content creator.”)

By age 67, the total nestegg of my SSA payroll taxes (not Medicare, only SSA) collecting whatever yield was paid by 10-year Treasury bonds reached $382,000 at age 67. Assuming the bond yields stay around where they are today–which are historically rather average–my nestegg would fund my retirement benefits until age 87, which significantly exceeds the current average life expectancy of American males (78 years).

I understand that many would say investing the payroll taxes in Treasuries is effectively tossing the money on a bonfire, but consider the possibility that if the entire working populace had a stake in Treasuries surviving a financial bubble collapse, then they might start electing (and re-electing) politicians who wouldn’t stripmine everything within reach to get re-elected. That change in values and voting would change the course of the system.

The point of this exercise is to show that if SSA were converted to a true pension plan system, the average wage earner could accumulate a self-funding pension plan just by investing the payroll taxes in Treasury bonds. Yes, I know many would prefer to invest in gold or bitcoin or stocks, but nobody would be stopping anyone from investing their non-SSA savings however they wished.

Can Social Security be saved for future generations? Let’s re-phrase the question in two ways.

1. Could money pile up for decades without politicians finding an excuse to drain that pool to win re-election by distributing “free money”? Not unless every politician who even suggested draining the pool for an “emergency” were voted out of office in the next election, without exception.

2. Are we wise enough to refuse politicians’ offer of “free money” to spend today that was stolen from our future, and from our future generations? Probably not. And that’s why Social Security is doomed to insolvency, and why we’ll never muster the political will to replace pay-as-you-go with a real pension plan for America’s wage earners. Short-term expediencies are the order of the day, as the Prime Directive is do whatever it takes to get re-elected every two years.

Wages share of gross domestic income: in a free-fall since 1970, and a cumulative total of $149 trillion shifted from labor to capital.

SSA tax rates 1937 to 2025

*  *  *

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Weeks after U.S. officials told the New York Times that the real goal of the military buildup (read report) in the Caribbean, and the strategic strikes against drug boats in the region, was regime change, a new NBC News report citing four unnamed sources, including two U.S. officials, now says the U.S. could be nearing a strike phase targeting drug cartels inside Venezuela.

The sources include two U.S. officials familiar with the planning and two others familiar with the discussions, who told NBC News that drone strikes targeting command and control nodes of traffickers, including drug labs, could occur within the next several weeks. They added that President Trump has not yet approved the operation.

Strikes inside Venezuela would represent a significant escalation following the recent U.S. military strikes against three drug boats off the South American country’s coast:

• Hegseth To Narco-Terrorists: “Assets Gathering In Region” After Drug-Boat Blown Apart In Missile Strike

Last week, Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez released Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s letter to President Trump. In it, Maduro vehemently denied involvement in narco-trafficking, calling the allegations “fake news propagated through various media channels.” He further offered to engage in “a direct and frank conversation with your special envoy.”

NBC asked for comment from the Trump administration about the strike plan, receiving this previous statement from the president: “We’ll see what happens. Venezuela is sending us their gang members, their drug dealers and drugs. It’s not acceptable.”

A senior administration official told the outlet that the president is “prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible to justice.” 

The administration is using the drug-death crisis, killing 100,000 Americans per year and many of them working-age men and women (or military-aged), as a pretext to clean up the Western Hemisphere under a theme we’ve called “Hemispheric Defense.” This strategy ranges from securing the entire hemisphere with military assets to eliminating transnational gangs from financial networks, as well as disrupting the cartels that flood the U.S. with drugs such as fentanyl, whose precursor chemicals originate from China. 

During the Biden-Harris regime, open-border globalist policies facilitated the invasion of illegal aliens into the U.S., including Venezuelan Tren de Aragua terrorists (read bombshell report). Any U.S. strike on Venezuelan soil could prompt retaliatory attacks by cartel-linked terrorists inside the homeland.

🚨 LMFAO! President Trump just CLOWNED Venezuela and Maduro – “We caught the Venezuelan Militia in training. A very serious threat!”

And it’s a video of obese women struggling to run just a few yards at like 3 miles per hour 😭 pic.twitter.com/4WvoeOrw3t

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 22, 2025

. . .  

Professor John J. Mearsheimer’s now famous 2014 hour-and-fifteen minute lecture on how NATO led Ukraine down the primrose path, once it was popularly ‘discovered’ on YouTube after the Russian invasion of 2022, has since racked up several tens of millions of views. We wrote about his insights and forecasts in Mearsheimer’s Ukraine Crystal Ball as well as his 2024 talk on “Social Engineering At The End Of A Rifle Barrel”. And now in 2025 more and more people continue to say: John Mearsheimer was right, and his analysis continues to be accurate as ever.

In his latest appearance on “Judging Freedom”, he talked with the Judge about Trump’s famous Truth Social tweet where the president subtly said that the US is turning responsibility for the Ukraine war to the Europeans and Ukraine, while at the same time he is going to great lengths as the war goes south to protect himself against the charge he “lost Ukraine.” Mearsheimer and Judge Napolitano also discussed the roots of America’s harmful relationship with Israel and Tucker Carlson’s comment that Netanyahu has been telling others that “I control the United States.” Trump insists he has long been seeking to wind down the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, but what’s really going on behind the scenes. Watch the foremost realism foreign policy expert of our time unpack it…

As a reminder, here’s what Trump wrote on Truth Social regarding to future of the Ukraine crisis this wee, ‘stunning’ some European officials while unleashing an avalanche of speculation over what precisely he meant.

It was only in the middle of September that the Israeli military launched its major ground offensive against Gaza City, which is the Gaza Strip’s most populous place.

Now, two weeks into the operation, and Israeli media is reporting that the IDF has already taken over more than half of the city. Among the Strip’s total prewar population of 2.2 million, about one-third lived in Gaza City or its environs. Nearly all have fled the main parts of the city amid the full Israeli assault.

Jerusalem Post is reporting that “The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) control more than half of Gaza City, and 800,000 residents have left the area.” This also comes amid intensifying airstrikes over the last days.

The publication indicated that 120 sites were targeted in airstrikes over a single 24-hour period between Friday and Saturday, with the IDF saying it “continues to act against terrorist organizations throughout the Strip” and “is expanding operations in the Gaza City area.”

Israeli army “struck several observation posts used by Hamas militants, as well as militant assembly points and underground terrorist facilities” – the statement said.

Significant neighborhoods now under effective IDF control have been listed as Tel al-Hawa in the southwest, nearby Al-Nadi, as well as Sheikh Ajleen which has seen heavy action, and Zeitoun, in the southeast.

There is still a big coming fight expected in an area not yet under IDF control, as JPost describes:

Among the Gaza City neighborhoods not yet under IDF control is Al-Rimal. It has been home to Gaza’s elite and senior Hamas figures. The area is considered the city’s “heart,” hosting decades of banking infrastructure, Palestinian government institutions, universities, and media sites.

Al Jazeera is reporting that at least 91 Palestinians have been killed across the Strip on Saturday amid relentless shelling and airstrikes. Some 45 of these deaths were in Gaza City.

Various world leaders continuing ramping up the pressure on Israel in the context of the ongoing UN General Assembly in New York.

For example, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud ripped Israeli policy, in another clear sign that Riyadh is no closer to signing on to the Abraham Accords.

Gaza city tonight,

Documented by a family from their living room. pic.twitter.com/aFRkPDXdle

— Warfare Analysis (@warfareanalysis) September 20, 2025

He decried to the UN the “brutal and unchecked practices of the occupying forces, including starvation, forced displacement and systematic killing” of Palestinian civilians.

“This is done in complete disregard of the historic and legal rights of the Palestinian people, with an aim to erase their legitimate rights,” Al Saud added.