As noted earlier, investors face a monumentally important and extremely busy week ahead that includes rates decisions by four of the G7 central banks, with the Fed and BoC on Wednesday followed by the BoJ and ECB on Thursday. A packed earnings calendar will see reports from five of the Mag-7 (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple and Amazon), together representing a quarter of the S&P 500 market cap. But ahead of all that, markets are in a buoyant mood this morning as US and China officials indicated that they have largely aligned a deal to ease trade tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting this Thursday.

Starting with the US-China news, China’s Ministry of Commerce said that the sides reached an initial consensus on a range of issues including an extension of the tariff truce, fentanyl, agricultural trade, export controls and shipping levies. In turn, US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that China would defer its new rare-earth export controls for one year and make “substantial” purchases of US soybeans, while the US threat of 100% tariffs on China was “effectively off the table”. Bessent signaled that the agreed “framework” should allow Presidents Trump and Xi to have “a very productive meeting” when they meet on Thursday on the sidelines of the APEC summit. The details from that meeting should give a clearer sense whether this represents a genuine stabilisation in US-China trade relations or only a return to the uneasy trade truce in place before the rhetoric escalated earlier this month. Any reduction of the 20% fentanyl tariffs by the US will be one key barometer to watch.

In other weekend trade news, Trump signed trade framework pacts with Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. The countries will allow preferential access for US goods in return for tariff exemptions on some of their exports to the US, though many of exact details are still to be finalised. By contrast, Trump announced a 10% additional tariff on Canada amid a spat over an anti-tariff ad released by the government of Ontario. It’s not clear whether USMCA-compliant goods would remain exempt from the extra 10% levy, which would mitigate much of its impact, but it’s a reminder that tariffs remain a go-to policy tool for the US administration even if peak trade uncertainty is behind us.

Looking to the week ahead, a second consecutive 25bps Fed cut looks locked in for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with markets pricing 49bps of cuts across the next two meetings. With a dearth of data and a still-divided FOMC, economists think Chair Powell is unlikely to provide clear signals on the policy path ahead, focusing more on topics including balance sheet policy and financial stability. Meanwhile, as we first discussed here first, the emerging baseline is that the Fed will this week announce an end to QT in response to the recent tightening in funding markets. 

In Europe, the ECB is widely expected to keep the deposit rate steady at 2% for a third consecutive meeting. DB economists think ECB President Lagarde will again describe policy as “in a good place” and will be watching whether she maintains the net hawkish tone that she struck in July and September (see their preview here). The Bank of Japan (Thursday) is expected to maintain its current policy stance (see preview here), while the Bank of Canada is likely to deliver its own 25bp rate cut on Wednesday.

The Q3 earnings season will reach its apex this week with key reports due from Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta on Wednesday as well as Apple and Amazon on Thursday. The five biggest companies in the world after Nvidia now make up $15tn in total market capitalization or 25% of the S&P 500. The full list of key reports is in the week ahead calendar at the end as usual.

 Overall, some 43% of the S&P500 by market will report this week.

On the data front, in the US the Conference Board’s October consumer confidence readings (Tuesday) are likely to be the main indicator of note amid the government shutdown. In the euro area, Germany’s ifo survey today will receive extra attention after last Friday’s jump in the PMIs, the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey (Tuesday) will precede its rates decision, and we’ll get the October inflation readings for Germany and Spain on Thursday, followed by France, Italy and the Eurozone on Friday. In Asia, we have the October PMIs in China (Friday) as well as September retail sales, industrial production and the Tokyo CPI for October in Japan (Thursday).

Here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday October 27

• Data: US September durable goods orders, October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, China September industrial profits, Germany October Ifo survey, Eurozone September M3
• Central banks: ECB September consumer expectations survey
• Earnings: Welltower, Cadence Design Systems, Deutsche Boerse, Keurig Dr Pepper
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Tuesday October 28

• Data: US October Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Richmond Fed business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, August FHFA house price index, Germany November GfK consumer confidence, Italy October consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, EU27 September new car registrations
• Central banks: ECB bank lending survey, ECB’s Panetta speaks
• Earnings: Visa, UnitedHealth, Novartis, HSBC, NextEra Energy, Booking, Iberdrola, American Tower, BNP Paribas, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Advantest, Sherwin-Williams, Mondelez, UPS, Corning, PayPal, Electronic Arts
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Wednesday October 29

• Data: US September advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, pending home sales, UK September net consumer credit, M4, Japan October consumer confidence index, Italy September PPI, hourly wages, Australia September CPI, Sweden September GDP indicator
• Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC decision
• Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, SK hynix, Caterpillar, ServiceNow, Airbus, Verizon, Boeing, KLA, Santander, UBS, CVS Health, Keyence, Starbucks, GSK, Carvana, Equinor, Mercedes-Benz, Chipotle, BASF, eBay, adidas, Kraft Heinz
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN ($30bn)

Thursday October 30

• Data: US Q3 GDP, initial jobless claims, Japan September retail sales, industrial production, jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, October Tokyo CPI, Germany Q3 GDP, October CPI, unemployment claims rate, France Q3 GDP, September consumer spending, Italy Q3 GDP, September unemployment rate, August industrial sales, Eurozone October economic confidence, Q3 GDP, September unemployment rate
• Central banks: ECB decision, BoJ decision, Fed’s Logan speaks
• Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Samsung Electronics, Merck, Shell, Gilead Sciences, S&P Global, Stryker, TotalEnergies, Hitachi, BYD, AB InBev, BBVA, Comcast, Bristol-Myers Squibb, ROBLOX, Cigna, Howmet Aerospace, Cloudflare, ING Groep, Credit Agricole, Volkswagen, Vale, Universal Music Group, Cheniere Energy, Societe Generale, Monolithic Power Systems, Atlassian, Standard Chartered, Haleon, Reddit, Estee Lauder

Friday October 31

• Data: US September PCE, personal income and spending, October MNI Chicago PMI, Q3 employment cost index, China October PMIs, UK October Lloyds Business Barometer, Germany September retail sales, import price index, Japan September housing starts, France October CPI, September PPI, Italy October CPI, Eurozone October CPI, Canada August GDP, Australia September PPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Logan, Hammack and Bostic speak, ECB’s survey of professional forecasters
• Earnings: Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Chevron, Linde, Intesa Sanpaolo, Tokyo Electron, Colgate-Palmolive, Charter Communications

Finally, looking at just the US, several key data releases will almost certainly be postponed this week because of the government shutdown, including the durable goods report scheduled for release on Monday, the advance goods trade balance scheduled on Wednesday, the Q3 advance GDP report scheduled on Thursday, and the core PCE inflation scheduled on Friday. The Department of Labor will also postpone the official release of the jobless claims report if the government shutdown continues through Thursday, but preliminary state-level claims data will likely be available. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC’s blackout period.

Monday, October 27 

• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, September preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.2%, last +2.9%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, September preliminary (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, September preliminary (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, September preliminary (GS +0.2%, last -0.3%): We estimate that durable goods orders increased 1.0% in the preliminary September report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting an increase in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.1% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting an improvement in the new orders components of manufacturing surveys but potential payback for the outsized increase in the prior month—and a 0.2% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the increase in orders in the prior month.

Tuesday, October 28 

• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, August (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.1%, last -0.1%) 
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, October (GS 93.0, consensus 93.4, last 94.2)

Wednesday, October 29 

• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, September (GS -$78.0bn, consensus -$90.0bn, last -$85.5bn): We forecast that the goods trade deficit narrowed by $7.5bn to $78.0bn, reflecting an increase in gold exports and a sharp pullback in imports of electronic products from Taiwan.
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, September (GS +3.5%, consensus +2.0%, last +4.0%)
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, October 28-29 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to deliver another 25bp rate cut to 3.75-4% at its October meeting. The median projection in the September dot plot showed a baseline of three cuts this year, and with the official data paused by the government shutdown and alternative labor market data mixed at best, there is no reason to deviate from the plan to support the labor market for now. We do not expect formal guidance about the December meeting, but if Chair Powell is asked, he will likely be comfortable referencing the September dots, which imply a third cut in December. 

Thursday, October 30 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 25 (GS 230k, consensus 229k, GS estimate of last 227k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 18 (consensus 1,925k, GS estimate of last 1,935k)
• 08:30 AM GDP, Q3 advance (GS +3.3%, consensus +3.0%, last +3.8%); Personal consumption, Q3 advance (GS +3.1%, consensus +3.2%, last +2.5%); Core PCE inflation, Q3 advance (GS +2.91%, last +2.6%): We estimate that GDP rose 3.3% annualized in the advance reading for Q3, following a +3.8% annualized increase in Q2. Our forecast reflects a rebound in imports growth (-6.4%, quarter-over-quarter annualized vs. -29.3% in Q2 and +38.0% in Q1) after frontloading ahead of tariff increases distorted imports growth in the prior quarters. We expect a further acceleration in consumption growth (+3.1% vs. +2.5% in Q2) but another quarter of soft residential investment growth (-8.6% vs. -5.1% in Q2). We estimate that domestic final sales rose 2.4% in Q3, and that the core PCE price index increased 2.91% annualized (or 2.88% year-over-year) in Q3.

Friday, October 31 

• 08:30 AM Personal income, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); Core PCE price index, September (GS +0.24%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.87%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.9%) ; PCE price index, September (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), September (GS +2.83%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.7%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, in September. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.24% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.87%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.30% in September, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.83%. We estimate that market-based core PCE rose 0.18% in September.
• 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q3 (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.9%, last +0.9%): We estimate the employment cost index rose by 0.8% in Q3 (quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted), which would leave the year-on-year rate unchanged at 3.6% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted). Our forecast reflects a sequentially slower pace of wage and salary growth—reflecting the signals from the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker and average hourly earnings—but a slight rebound in ECI benefit growth after a weak increase in Q2.

Source: BofA, Goldman

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A deranged leftist commentator has declared that President Trump’s demolition of a portion of the East Wing of the White House as part of the ballroom renovations is comparable to the attack on the Pentagon on September 11th, 2001.

As we have highlighted, Democrats and their lunatic followers have gone all in on this stupid idea that Trump is literally tearing down the White House.

But former CNN and ABC News propagandist Tara Setmayer has managed to take it to a whole new level of insane.

It’s feels almost the same as when I saw the Pentagon damage on 9/11. pic.twitter.com/cgZ3LWOhnk

— Tara Setmayer 🌻 🇺🇸 (@TaraSetmayer) October 24, 2025

Just a reminder for those who might be too young to remember all the details… 

184 people died when Al Qaeda terrorists slammed a 757 jet into the Pentagon. In total, 2977 people died during the attacks on 9/11.

All those who died and their families would likely disagree.

— Randy Woodward (@TheBondFreak) October 25, 2025

And this disgusting clown is comparing that to an innocuous construction project.

She is sick.

If you FEEL that strongly, you should seriously question how you’re being programmed to equate 2 things that are so obviously different.

— RaiderF16 (@F16RaiderF22) October 24, 2025

Yeah about that…

🚨JUST NOW: MSNBC compares images of the consruction of the White House Ballroom to “Terrorism” and “War”

“What do the images look like? Maybe a natural disaster or, more commonly these days, war or terrorism?”

“He’s made it worse for himself!” pic.twitter.com/LdTJjdEKTD

— The Patriot Oasis™ (@ThePatriotOasis) October 24, 2025

Just sick.

The left is unable to mentally distinguish between Islamic terrorism that kills thousands and … building improvements. Horrific break with reality we’re watching here. https://t.co/RKMvCutR0I

— Mollie (@MZHemingway) October 24, 2025

Even other leftists who dislike Trump were appalled by this idiot.

I hate what he’s doing but it is not on the same level as 9/11…have to be wise with your messaging

— little🐦in a big old🌳 (@spinonitsaxis) October 24, 2025

Instead of reconsidering, she doubled down on the lunacy.

This isn’t about messaging. This is how I feel and I won’t apologize for it.

— Tara Setmayer 🌻 🇺🇸 (@TaraSetmayer) October 24, 2025

And tripled down.

Wow. MAGA is REALLY REALLY triggered by my feelings about the unnecessary & jarring White House desecration for Trump’s gilded vanity project. I wonder why? 🧐

Excuse me if I don’t give a damn what the people who think Jan 6th was a day of love, support a felon & are ok with… pic.twitter.com/jfF16XxeGI

— Tara Setmayer 🌻 🇺🇸 (@TaraSetmayer) October 26, 2025

Depraved.

You don’t have to apologize, but you might want to consider what has made you so callously dismissive of mass terror and death that you’d make such a comparison in public.

— GalosGann (@galos_gann) October 24, 2025

This TBS (Trump Ballroom Syndrome) stuff, or BDS if you prefer, really does say a lot about the state of the Democratic Party and their supporters.

Remember they picking at straws.
They have nothing.
So they have to complain about every little thing.
Cannot wait to see the most beautiful ballroom in the U.S.!

— mooselips™ 💋 (@mooselips) October 24, 2025

They have nothing else to run on.

pic.twitter.com/P5isTVcxcv

— WestCoast_Life (@westcoast_lyfe) October 24, 2025

Don’t even go to BlueSky right now (or do if you can’t get enough of their meltdowns) it’s absolutely exploded with bad TBS memes.

“BREAKING: areal photograph reveals Donald Trump’s new $250M “ballroom” is nearing completion.” Credit to tom.adelsbach on Instagram www.instagram.com/p/DQLddoykaI…

[image or embed]

— Russell England (@russellengland.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 12:26 AM

[image or embed]

— SG Hendricks (@sghendricks.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 1:56 AM

OMG. What an ad!

[image or embed]

— Amy Siskind (@amysiskind.com) October 24, 2025 at 8:20 PM

That’s enough. They’re too weird.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Hurricane Melissa explosively intensified into a catastrophic Category 5 storm, and the latest spaghetti models indicate a direct hit on Jamaica.

As of early Monday, Melissa was churning about 130 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, according to the latest update from the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Winds are registering at the highest on the Saffir-Simpson scale with sustained winds exceeding 157 mph. 

NHC records dating back to 1850 show that Jamaica has never recorded a direct landfall from a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. However, four Category 3 storms have made direct landfall: in 1903, 1912, 1951, and 1988.

“Although interaction with Jamaica will lead to some weakening, Melissa is expected to reach southeastern Cuba as a major hurricane, and will also move across the southeastern Bahamas and be near Bermuda as a hurricane,” NHC wrote in the latest update. 

Various computer model predictions agree that Melissa’s track will curve out into the Atlantic Ocean after making landfall across several Caribbean island nations. 

Hurricane season in the Atlantic ends on November 30. 

It has been a relatively quiet year for the continental U.S. What happened to the climate change cult’s impending global doom?

Related:

• Where Are All The Hurricanes?

Just wait … their propaganda news cycle will restart when Democrats need to pass climate bills to rip off American taxpayers.

Over the next 25 years, Texas is projected to gain 8.6 million residents, the highest absolute increase across states.

Like Texas, Florida and California are projected to lead nationally in population gains, adding 5.2 million and 3.1 million people, respectively. In comparison, 18 states are projected to shrink.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows America’s fastest-growing states by 2050, based on forecasts from the University of Virginia.

The Data Behind the Fastest-Growing States

Between now and 2050, the U.S. is projected to grow 9%, adding nearly 32 million people to its population.

However, growth across states is forecast to vary widely. Utah, for instance, is set to grow nearly four times faster than the national average, at 35%. Meanwhile, West Virginia’s population is set to contract 15%.

Notably, North Dakota, Idaho, and Washington D.C. are all projected to see 30% growth over the period.

At the same time, nine states are expected to grow their populations by over 1 million residents, including Georgia and North Carolina. When it comes to New York, the population is set to grow just 4%, adding around 820,000 people—far lower than other populous states.

On the other hand, Illinois is set to see the sharpest absolute decline, losing 1.1 million residents.

With migration slowing and fertility levels declining as the population ages, America’s growth is projected to slow over the coming decades. In fact, 25% of Maine and Florida’s populations are projected to be 65 years or older by 2050.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the world’s fastest-shrinking countries.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Germany’s Minister of Economic Affairs, Katherina Reiche (CDU), hopes her new debt package will trigger an economic turnaround. But new data from consulting firm PwC shows the downward spiral in the industrial heart of Germany – its machinery sector – is accelerating.

The path back from economic depression keeps getting longer. PwC’s latest industry analysis shows conditions in machinery manufacturing continued to worsen over the course of the year. For 2024, a sales decline of 5.6 percent is now expected.

No Light at the End of the Tunnel 

This brings the total production slump since pre-Covid times to over 22 percent. Average capacity utilization has fallen to 80.8 percent – its lowest level in five years. Rising energy-related cost pressures, suffocating regulation, and weakening demand in major export markets such as China and the U.S., also a result of Washington’s tariff policy are pushing output into the basement.

PwC’s industry expert Bernd Jung says: “2025 will be a decisive year for machinery and plant engineering. After the government collapses in France and Germany, alongside geopolitical conflicts, fears are growing about the viability of the sector’s business model.”

This assessment is reinforced by a surge in insolvencies reported by industry association VDMA and Creditreform. Compared to last year, bankruptcies increased by 22 percent. Since January, around 12,000 jobs have been lost in machinery manufacturing. PwC warns another 20,000 could disappear by year’s end if the expected recovery fails to materialize.

A Rabbit in Front of the Snake 

Where should the turnaround come from? The federal government remains a monolithic obstacle. Its reaction to this dramatic situation exposes a political class unable to diagnose problems or correct them.

Coalition parties are tangled up in internal disputes and tax-hike fantasies. The only consensus? Defending Brussels’ eco-socialist agenda at any cost. Climate targets—and their catastrophic downstream effects on German industry—are non-negotiable.

The sole measure actually enacted to ease industry pressure is a 30 percent degressive depreciation allowance introduced on July 1. But where little or no investment happens, tax write-offs are meaningless.

A tiny tax cut of €11 billion annually from 2027 for four years is an even smaller band-aid.

To recap: Germany is now the most expensive business location in the OECD—and with a regulatory cost burden of €60 billion, hardly an investor’s paradise.

Investors Are Fleeing Germany 

PwC’s report confirms the trend: companies relocate wherever possible. Automakers like BMW and Audi now invest heavily in Hungary—BMW’s expansion in Debrecen being one prime example.

Berlin hopes to counter this trend with a capped industrial electricity price. If adopted into law, about 1,200 energy-intensive firms in chemicals, metals and glass could apply for subsidies capping wholesale power costs at five cents per kWh for up to half their consumption.

The €4 billion relief package is another drop in the ocean—and predictably tied to “climate-friendly production.”

One can’t shake the impression that policymakers have consciously turned against traditional German industry to impose their ideological experiment.

The Myth of Growth 

PwC offers a clear view of the near- and mid-term economic outlook—and it’s bleak. While the government celebrates its debt package with fairy tales of an imminent boom, Germany digs itself deeper into economic depression.

Machinery manufacturing is the industrial seismograph: once it shakes, the entire economic engine rattles. These companies are the first to feel when corporate investment is slashed.

The sector is also burdened by the collapse of the German auto industry. What politicians and powerful climate NGOs—such as German Environmental Aid, long suspected of serving foreign interests—call “transformation” was in truth a direct assault on the core of national prosperity.

China, meanwhile, plays a major role in financing anti-industry climate activism in the EU and U.S.

While Beijing showers its automakers with support, Berlin has pulled the rug out from under its own flagship sector—triggering cascading damage throughout the industrial value chain.

Cascading Decline 

A cumulative production decline of 22 percent since the 2018 peak is a glaring alarm signal—proof of an economic depression that not only cripples industry but threatens social insurance funds with a debt spiral.

This crisis is triggering a massive social shock, driven by an eco-socialist crash policy that imposes ideology regardless of economic reality. It carries the potential for explosive societal upheaval.

A social crisis of historic scale will erupt the moment the state can no longer reliably provide pensions, ensure basic living standards, or maintain adequate healthcare. Germany has overextended itself—trying to run the world’s social welfare office and a centrally planned green economy at the same time. That “green miracle” now stands revealed for what it always was: a utopian illusion detached from reality.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Update (0710ET):

Earlier this month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arranged a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina’s central bank to stabilize the country’s bond market ahead of Sunday’s elections. The midterm results were surprising, as President Javier Milei’s party scored a major comeback, and the move may now pay dividends for the US.

Goldman analyst Clara Mourey provided clients with midterm election results:

With 94% of ballots counted, President Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, received 40.8% of the votes, above expectations, and will increase its representation in Congress starting December 10, up from the current 10% in the Senate and 15% in the Lower House. Importantly, the government’s representation would exceed the one-third threshold in the lower house, and together with allies also in the Senate. This outcome would enhance the President’s veto authority and bolster governability.

The left-wing coalition Fuerza Patria received 24.4% of the votes, and together with other Peronist groups reached 31.6% of the votes. Finally, the group of governors united under the Provincias Unidas coalition received 7.0% of the vote.

Aboard Air Force One earlier while on his Asia tour, Trump told reporters that Sunday’s midterm election results were a “big win” for Milei’s party. “Not only did he win, he won by a lot.” 

Trump’s backing of Milei is part of a strategic political shift across Latin America, following decades in which failed socialist leaders sent the country’s economy into the dumps.

One of Bessent’s bets included over $1 billion in peso purchases, according to Bloomberg estimates, which appears to have paid off.

• BBG: ARGENTINA DOLLAR BONDS SOAR AFTER MILEI’S MIDTERM WIN

• BBG: ARGENTINA BONDS JUMP 10-13 CENTS ACROSS THE CURVE ON MILEI WIN

The nation’s debt jumped across the curve in early trading, with dollar notes due in 2035 up more than 13 cents to trade at a record 70.34 cents on the dollar.

A stronger Argentine currency in Monday’s trading session will mean the US could net hundreds of millions of dollars in gains. 

In the US, Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) jumped 17%. 

“That election made a lot of money for the United States,” Trump said Monday. “The bonds have gone up,” he said. “The whole debt rating has gone up.“

Goldman’s Mourey continued, “The election results improve the outlook for structural reforms in the second half of the Administration. Following the election, investors will monitor any shifts to the government’s economic policy mix, especially those related to the exchange rate and monetary regime. In the months leading up to the elections, Argentine assets were affected by heightened political and policy uncertainty.” 

In a separate note earlier, UBS analyst Matthew Cowley told clients, “The peso is expected to appreciate post-election, alleviating currency pressure, though Argentina’s $48 bn debt payments by 2027 remain a concern. A reinforced political mandate and potential foreign investment flows could stabilize reserves and support international debt market re-entry. Milei’s victory signals optimism for Argentina’s economic trajectory, with key reforms now more likely to advance.”

Bessent told reporters earlier, “Now I think the market is going to take care of itself and it’s going to have a lot of confidence in his policies,” referring to Milei, adding, “They have some big refinancings next year, but the Argentinian people have spoken.”

Bessent also congratulated Milei on X:

Congratulations to President @JMilei on La Libertad Avanza’s very successful midterm election. President Milei has a renewed mandate for change.

Argentina is a vital ally in Latin America. These results are a clear example that the Trump Administration policy of Peace through… pic.twitter.com/tjcciFSkxG

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) October 27, 2025

*   *   * 

Update(2050ET): Despite plenty of earlier predictions to the contrary, Argentine President Javier Milei’s party is on track to finish first in Argentina’s midterms with over 90% of votes counted, in a big comeback. According to a breaking news wire:

• MILEI’S PARTY HAS 41.5% IN BUENOS AIRES TO PERONISM’S 40.8%

BREAKING:

Huge electoral victory for Javier Milei in the midterm elections.

His party won 41% of the votes and will increase its number of deputies in the parliament from 37 to 101 while the number of senators will increase from 6 to 20. pic.twitter.com/xzElWGSK1P

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 27, 2025

According to the English-langauge Buenos Aires Times at 9:30pm local time, “Official results point to a decisive win for President Javier Milei and La Libertad Avanza. The only force to be running in every province, the ruling party’s alliance with ex-president Mauricio Macri’s PRO party has won it more than 40 percent of the national vote for lower house deputies.”

Official results now in from Argentina…

Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (purple) has 40.8% of the votes, while the Peronist left-wing opposition (blue) has 24.4%.

90%+ counted. An even better outcome for Milei than their most optimistic prediction. pic.twitter.com/DclKba9maT

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) October 27, 2025

The Wall Street Journal reviews of the significance:

That means it should secure at least one-third of the seats in both chambers—the critical threshold that allows Milei to preserve his veto power and defend his sweeping decrees. The result, stronger than most polls had predicted, gives Milei fresh political momentum after months of unrest over deep spending cuts and a grinding recession last year.

It also shores up his standing with Washington and the International Monetary Fund, which have tied future financial support to the survival of his austerity experiment. Market analysts expect Argentine bonds and the peso to rally when trading opens Monday, reflecting relief that Milei still has political traction. The U.S. announced a $20 billion currency swap this month to prop up Argentina’s currency and promised to raise another $20 billion from private banks and sovereign-wealth funds.

My friend President Javier Milei’s party has swept Argentina’s national legislative elections, winning 40.84% of the vote compared to 24.50% for the Kirchnerist bloc, with 91% of ballots counted.

President Trump and I simply say, “VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!”

🇦🇷🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/WpzPzlFnor

— Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr) October 27, 2025

Recall the crucial words of Trump from earlier this month, “If he wins, we’re staying with him. And if he doesn’t win, we’re gone.” He just survived and thrived in this major test of his austerity agenda, despite a public turnout which was a low in decades.

* * *

Some 36 million eligible Argentines are headed to the polls Sunday for legislative elections which are key to determining the fate of President Javier Milei’s sweeping reform agenda, and could unsettle financial markets if his support collapses, despite record US assistance in the form of the ultra-controversial big beautiful bailout from the Trump administration, which could also hang in the balance.

The midterm vote is being closely watched internationally, as it marks the first nationwide referendum on the self-styled anarcho-capitalist’s austerity measures and economic deregulation efforts since he assumed office two years ago. At the start of this past week, Argentina assets soared on the heels of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the South American country “a systemically important US ally in Latin America,” adding that the US Treasury “stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table.”

But the potential $40 billion bailout package for Argentina is also on the line (Bessent indicated the extra $20 billion on top of the initial $20bn would come from “the private sector” – which seems somewhat wishful given the scenario of private investors wanting to risk such sums in volatile Argentina). The aid could be withdrawn by Trump if his populist ally Milei tanks. President Trump even spelled out, “If he doesn’t win, we’re not going to waste our time, because his opponents’ philosophy has no chance of making Argentina great again.”

On Sunday, voters are choosing half of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate. It was the campaign period leading up to the vote which saw a sharp decline in the peso, prompting Milei to the request emergency financial support from Washington. Should the Sunday vote go against Milei – and there are a number of signs suggesting this will be the case – then Trump “will not be generous” – as he’s forewarned in prior comments.

President Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party, which remains a newcomer in Argentine politics, currently holds just 37 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and six in the Senate, giving it less than 15% of the total seats in Congress. The party desperately needs to expand its representation to at least one-third of Congress, a goal that would strengthen its ability to block opposition efforts to derail Milei’s ambitious agenda.

If Milei’s party performs weak, this could serve to quickly resolve domestic controversy for Trump at home:

On October 19, a reporter asked Trump why he decided to aid Argentina despite concerns among US soya producers. “Argentina is fighting for its life,” Trump answered. “Young lady, you don’t know anything about it. … They have no money. They have no anything.”

US aid to Argentina didn’t directly harm US soya producers – they have been hurt by a separate Trump policy, his trade war with China. But the timing of the aid and the soya bean export troubles pose a problem of optics for the White House.

But as for “optics” – a loss in these midterms will mark a defeat of US credibility in the region, given the aforementioned multibillion-dollar lifeline from the White House.

With a few hours until polls close, reports of low voter turnout, a bad sign for the Argentine Trump ally…

🇦🇷Low voter turnout in the midterms in Argentina. This isn’t a good sign for Milei’s party as Peronists have a better ‘get out the vote’ apparatus. The midterm election in the province of Buenos Aires where Milei’s party underperformed compared to the polls also saw low turnout. https://t.co/1jt0cZlllk

— Nicolás Saldías (@NicSaldias) October 26, 2025

Milei himself faces reelection in 2027, and the national direction after Sunday will signal whether Milei’s “chainsaw” austerity program will have any staying power. Politico notes, “LLA is expected to gain seats — though not enough to secure a majority against the left-wing Peronist coalition — but if the president’s coalition underperforms, it could lead to a broad selloff of Argentinian assets.”

The vote is happening between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. (1100–2100 GMT), and some preliminary results are expected to emerge roughly three hours after polls close.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

London and Brussels are coordinating their attacks on US tech giants. Under the flimsy pretext of consumer protection, they are trying to lay the groundwork for far-reaching censorship designs through multi-billion-dollar fines.

When Germany’s Minister of State for Culture, Wolfram Weimer, delivered his verbal assault on American digital platforms last week, it got somewhat lost amid the waves of his own hypocrisy. As we now know, the minister does not think too highly of copyright rules or private property.

Aggressively Defensive 

Weimer branded Meta, Google and others as digital colonizers whose business model essentially depends on exploiting the creative potential of users and monetizing it for their own profit. The political response to this supposed injustice is to be a kind of digital tax, levied nationally to put an end to this behavior.

Of course, this is solely about providing the state, that over-satiated and over-fat Leviathan, with yet another source of revenue.

With his aggressive rhetoric, Weimer stands firmly in the tradition of recent EU policymaking, which increasingly resembles London’s digital doctrine.

What we are witnessing is a theatrical performance from a technologically sidelined continent. Brussels may cast the world’s densest net of digital regulations, but in this climate, no one dares to found startups capable of competing with American or Chinese tech giants or the AI industry.

These are rearguard actions, with sprawling regulatory catalogs designed to open the gates to censorship. The goal is to prevent the rise of counterpublics on platforms like X. Publics capable of pointing out the failures of European governance, EU centralization and the growing concentration of power in Brussels.

Absurd Fines 

In their economic distress and with shrinking geopolitical weight, London and Brussels have begun imposing grotesque fines on the supposed misbehavior of American tech corporations.

Apple was recently ordered by the UK’s Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT) to pay up to 1.5 billion pounds (1.75 billion euros), as the company allegedly abused market power and disadvantaged app developers through excessive commissions on in-app purchases and subscriptions between October 2015 and late 2020.

According to regulators, a commission of up to 30 percent per transaction is unjustified and restricted competition. Apple has announced it will appeal.

Apparently, the gentlemen in the “cradle of liberalism” remain unfamiliar with contractual freedom and individual sovereignty.

It is a similar picture in Brussels. The European Commission imposed a fine on Meta, the parent of Facebook and Instagram, claiming the company offers only inadequate complaint systems and tools to report illegal content like terrorist propaganda or abuse imagery.

They also accuse Meta of denying researchers access to public data and deploying dark patterns to manipulate user choices. Meta is to pay 200 million euros and show more cooperation in the future.

The Battle for Data Sovereignty 

At its core, this is about giving European regulators unrestricted access to user data and internal communications processes, very much in the spirit of the proposed chat control for private users. Europe has much more in store for its citizens.

True to this spirit, the European Commission already slapped Google with a record 2.95-billion-euro fine in September for alleged antitrust violations in online advertising. Since 2014, Google is said to have abused its market dominance by prioritizing its own products in ad placement and brokerage. The company must now rebuild its digital marketplace to rule out self-preferencing.

There is one small outlier in this European war against US digital dominance: the proceedings against TikTok, which remains heavily Chinese-controlled. A fine of 530 million euros looms over alleged data-protection violations, including unauthorized transfers of user data out of the EU to China. Lack of transparency in advertising and the absence of a functional ad register for researchers and users are also being challenged.

However, the TikTok theater mainly serves to distract Americans from the fact that Europe’s real intent is to challenge the US in digital economics with the regulatory bludgeon and create bargaining chips for the unresolved trade conflict.

The negotiation pattern is familiar: define maximal demands; escalate individual hotspots within the matrix of negotiations; accept the results with pious words while beginning the sabotage at the very moment of signing.

Central Planning vs. Individual Sovereignty 

Even from a systemic perspective, the arguments of the European Commission and UK regulators do not hold. Every user enters a voluntary contract. So do app developers. Apple rightly notes that around 84 percent of apps in its store are free. And every individual is free to switch to alternative technologies, like Google’s Android. No one is forced to use TikTok or upload videos there.

Europe’s escalation strategy once again proves their discomfort with competition, private property and individual decision-making sovereignty. It would not be wrong to say they fundamentally misunderstand the principles of a free market economy.

The alleged argument of consumer protection is nothing but a cloak for a deeper political agenda aiming at censorship and the subjugation of private enterprise.

In reality, we are witnessing another escalation of invasive policies from centralized regulatory authorities in Brussels and London. Policies that the US government under President Donald Trump is unlikely to tolerate. Transatlantic tensions are rising. The next act of the trade dispute will unfold on precisely this digital battlefield and continue to intensify.

Perhaps this is the perfect moment for Donald Trump to slap London and Brussels on the fingers. A drastic increase in tariffs might give some of them pause and put pressure on policymakers to stop playing dangerous censorship games.

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About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Which countries have the most educated populations?

Higher levels of tertiary education among a populace generally indicate greater potential for innovation and economic growth, but this isn’t always the case.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu visualizes educational attainment by country, breaking things down into three categories: below high-school, high-school or diploma, and college or university degree.

Data & Discussion

This data comes from the OECD’s Education at a Glance 2025 report. It compares educational attainment among working-age adults across 45 countries as of 2024.

Leaders in Higher Education

Canada tops the list with nearly 65% of adults holding a college or university degree, followed closely by Ireland and South Korea.

These nations have invested heavily in expanding access to higher education, driven by knowledge-based economies that reward advanced qualifications.

According to other OECD data, higher levels of education bring significant earnings advantages.

For instance, across OECD nations, tertiary graduates typically earn double the income of individuals who have not completed secondary education (high school).

Balanced Education Models in Europe

Countries like Austria and Germany demonstrate a more balanced split between tertiary and vocational education (education related to a specific job or trade).

For example, Germany ranks 19th in the world in terms of GDP per capita, despite only 34% of its adults having a university degree.

The country has a strong apprenticeship system where students combine hands-on training with theoretical learning, resulting in a high rate of employment upon graduation.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Universities Producing the Most Billionaires on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán marked the anniversary of the 1956 Revolution in Budapest with a public address portraying his government as the spiritual heir of those who rose up against Soviet tanks nearly 70 years ago.

Speaking before tens of thousands gathered for a Peace March on the national holiday, Orbán cast modern-day Brussels as Hungary’s new oppressor and vowed that the country would remain “a strong and sovereign nation with dignity” standing for peace while the rest of Europe “marches with the war alliance.”

“The pro-war countries have already formed a coalition of the willing,” Orbán declared. “They are willing to send others to die. If Brussels had not blocked the U.S. President’s peace mission, the war would be over. Everybody knows that if Donald Trump had been president, the war would not have broken out, and if he were not chained now, there would be peace.”

🇭🇺🕊 Budapest today: tens of thousands stand for one cause: #peace! pic.twitter.com/eyWts1cm9S

— Balázs Orbán (@BalazsOrban_HU) October 23, 2025

Throughout the speech, Orbán repeatedly drew parallels between the 1956 uprising against Soviet domination and his government’s present-day confrontations with the European Union. “From there, the Soviets have left, the IMF has gone home, and the pro-migration Brussels will go the same way,” he said to loud applause. “None of them could swallow us. We were stuck in their throats.”

🕊️ The day of the Budapest Peace March has come. Today we send a message to the whole world: Hungary says NO to war! We will not die for Ukraine. We will not send our children to the slaughterhouse at Brussels’ command.

🔴 Watch my speech live at 1pm CET here on X. pic.twitter.com/PQKd1lrYSY

— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) October 23, 2025

Portraying Hungary as the “only migrant-free country in Europe,” Orbán praised supporters of his Fidesz movement for defending “families against the whole Brussels snake pit,” expelling “LGBTQ activists from schools,” and maintaining a “Christian and patriotic constitution.” He described his supporters as “the largest national patriotic movement in Central Europe, and perhaps in Europe as a whole.”

🚨 BREAKING:

This is the Power of Hungary.

No EU flags only Support for Hungary.

200,000+ people for Peace and PM Orbán Viktor. 🇭🇺 pic.twitter.com/gGLNjuaepw

— Based Hungary 🇭🇺 (@HungaryBased) October 23, 2025

On foreign policy, Orbán insisted that Hungary would not be drawn into the conflict in Ukraine, calling it “not our war.” “We will not give our money, we will not give our weapons, we will not go to war, and we will not die for Ukraine — but we will live for Hungary,” he said. He rejected any prospect of Ukraine joining the European Union or NATO, asserting that such membership “would bring the war in, take our money out, and destroy our economy. Partnership, yes; membership, no.”

As the 2026 elections draw closer — Hungarians will head to the polls in April next year — Orbán framed the coming months as a historic choice between “peace or war, freedom or slavery.” He urged his followers to convince “misled Hungarians” that opposition parties “sent here from Brussels” are tools of “the Brussels bureaucrats who want to impose the migration pact on us.”

Calling on Hungary’s youth to “wake up, rebel, your country is waiting for you,” Orbán warned that “the Brussels empire wants you to be homeless Europeans… It wants you to stay in the virtual world, hooked up to a computer.”

Concluding his speech on Kossuth Square, Orbán declared: “In 1956, Budapest was the European capital of freedom. In 2025, Budapest will be the European capital of peace. God above us all, Hungary above all!”

Read more here…