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Arabica Coffee Prices Soar As Analyst Warns of “Weather Disasters” Risk Denting Global Production

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Arabica Coffee Prices Soar As Analyst Warns of “Weather Disasters” Risk Denting Global Production

Arabica coffee futures have soared over the past six weeks, reaching their highest level since February as traders closely monitor tightening supplies, adverse weather conditions in Brazil and other top growers, and uncertainty surrounding upcoming harvests, which has fueled a short squeeze.

Arabica, the premium bean used by Starbucks, Dunkin’, and other chains, jumped as much as 6.2% to $4.21 on Monday, with momentum easing on Tuesday as $4.20 emerged as a line of resistance. Notably, futures have surged nearly 50% since early August.

In a mid-August report, we cited Maja Wallengren, Danish-born independent coffee market reporter and founder of SpillingTheBean, who warned that adverse weather across key coffee-producing areas in Brazil, including the entire Cerrado Mineiro region and parts of Southern Minas, had experienced “frost damage” severe enough to be a potential “death blow” to the 2026 harvest

Wallengren recently warned that “multiple and continuing weather disasters across the world’s Arabica and Robusta producing countries” are producing an extreme situation where “there is ZERO POSSIBILTY for global production to recover until 2030 and it’s a FACT that The World IS Running Out of Coffee !!

In robusta markets…

According to Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting, the weather in Brazil is dry but not abnormally so. She told Bloomberg that the market is “on anxiety” because of separate weather concerns that may impact bean sizes

While the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture report forecasts global coffee output at around 178.7 million bags in 2025–26, weather risks remain on analysts’ minds. Ganes noted that the rally in coffee futures is being driven more by financial positioning and tariffs than by fundamentals.

We should be seeing prices coming down unless there is some major issue with the flowering for the Brazilian 26-27 crop, and that story isn’t written yet. Even with the couple of cold snaps, you could still wind up with a decent crop,” Ganes said, adding, “To me, this is all financial, and it’s being tripped up by the tariffs.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/17/2025 – 06:55

The Rise Of Neo-Feudalism: Germany’s Conservatives Bow To Socialist Wealth Taxes

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The Rise Of Neo-Feudalism: Germany’s Conservatives Bow To Socialist Wealth Taxes

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In Germany, a heated debate has erupted over the taxation of inheritances and wealth—and the Union (CDU/CSU) isn’t even attempting to curb these anti-civilizational trends. In fact, it has become part of the problem.

Unassuming, loyal voters of the Union parties are rubbing their eyes in disbelief these weeks. Faced with the envy-driven push by the Social Democrats for higher inheritance taxes and the possible reintroduction of a wealth tax, many are shocked—or even repelled—by the statements of their own political representatives.

Union Politicians Fuel the Debate

When it comes to citizens’ lawful property and how they use it, Union circles have recently sounded like this: “Those who already had, always gain more. In recent years, particularly during the low-interest phase, wealth grew almost automatically, without much personal effort. Property values, stock values, and more—this is a problem of wealth distribution.”Jens Spahn, CDU parliamentary group leader.

His colleague Dennis Radtke, social zealot and head of the Christian Democratic Workers’ Association (CDA), goes even further: “We should examine the exemptions in inheritance and gift taxes, under the concept of wealth assessment. These exemptions allow billions in wealth to be gifted and inherited without a single euro in taxes paid… This wouldn’t be a tax increase, just closing loopholes.“

In the view of this gentleman, the fundamental act of wealth creation—which, in a healthy bourgeois society, extends one’s economic actions to one’s descendants—is just a “loophole” if the state cannot freely access our assets.

This makes one thing clear: the party cartel is united when it comes to power. L’État, c’est moi! The citizen is nothing more than a supplier of political power, packaged in liquidable assets.

Generational Contract and Bourgeois Values

We can expect this understanding of the state from Germany’s socialist parties, whether the BSW, The Left, or the Greens. The openly socialist-populist SPD has long since fallen to the point of seeing citizens as nothing more than cows to be milked. Since the disastrous years under Angela Merkel, any voter should have realized that a party embracing open-border policies, eco-socialist climate politics, and bellicist tendencies—as seen in the Ukraine conflict—can no longer serve as a bourgeois counterweight.

Thanks to years of media propaganda, however, many Germans still perceive the chancellor as a representative of bourgeois values. Closer inspection reveals that the green-socialist spectrum of parties—including the Union—ultimately follows the same globalist ideology.

Undermining the family as society’s cornerstone, promoting state-driven culture and media influence, they all follow an unmistakably socialist script.

The centralization of political power in Brussels and dramatically increasing censorship pair with statist economic policies, whose latest victims are German industry. The inheritance and wealth tax debate fits perfectly into this ideological framework, trampling the true generational contract—between parents and heirs.

Neo-Feudal Tendencies

A power structure that manages to secure majority approval for substance taxes—whether inheritance or wealth taxes—through a debate framed around “justice” inevitably becomes a neo-feudal apparatus. Every form of wealth use—portfolio holdings, gifts, or inheritance—comes under arbitrary state administration. Every house, every stock account an individual acquires becomes a fief, requiring continuous tribute to avoid full expropriation.

The media-endorsed debate over “substance” or “resentment” taxes is thus anti-civilizational, anti-bourgeois, and devastating to capital formation. It accelerates pauperization trends now visible throughout the country.

Bowing to the Cult of Resentment

Jens Spahn, Lars Klingbeil, and their peers are archetypical career politicians, expertly embedded in a parasitic power apparatus that has long since detached from the economic middle class. It does not serve the population; it opposes it. Politically and philosophically, EU Europe—largely shaped by German policy—stands at a crossroads of cyclical overreach.

The apparatus acts grotesquely and invasively. It systematically violates citizens’ privacy and has become a bureaucratic perpetual motion machine—a self-destructive economic mechanism. Laws like the combustion engine ban or the heating regulations—aggressive expropriation policies—most vividly illustrate the neo-feudal character of today’s European politics. Bureaucracy embodies the spirit of pure dispossession. It is almost a late-Roman scenario, a Diocletianic system in which citizens—never mind the proposed “15-minute cities”—are reduced to mere state fodder. You’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy!

The pitiful capitulation of Union politicians to the Social Democrats’ cult of resentment is more than a political gesture. Representatives who advocate neo-feudal policies do not represent the sovereign—they place themselves above it, distributing fiefs. It is an anti-civilizational act that pulverizes the true generational contract, the unrestricted right to inherit and own property. With this step, the CDU has definitively exited the block of bourgeois representation. At its core, it is now a statist, largely socialist party, openly showing its true color. And that color is red.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/17/2025 – 06:30

Putin Boasts 100,000 Troops Are Participating In Belarus-Russia Drills

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Putin Boasts 100,000 Troops Are Participating In Belarus-Russia Drills

Russia’s President Putin on Tuesday boasted that some 100,000 military personnel are taking part in the major joint Russia-Belarus war games called “Zapad-2025” – which has deeply alarmed Poland and other so-called NATO eastern flank countries.

The drills have been going for several days, and come to a close on Tuesday, and have focused on the stated goal of testing defense of the ‘Union State’ – and to repel all potential aggression.

Via Sputnik stillframe

Putin actually visited the Mulino training ground, a main staging location for the drills, in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod Region. Aspects to the exercise are happening a sites both in Belarus and Russia.

In total, the exercise ensued at 41 training grounds, with the some 100,000 troops utilizing 10,000 weapons and equipment systems, according to fresh words of Putin. 

“Moreover, this is all modern equipment used in practical combat work, and the plans for the exercise are based on the experience gained during the special military operation. Ten thousand types of equipment, including 333 aircraft: tactical aviation, strategic aviation and military transport aviation. More than 247 ships are also used: surface, submarine and support vessels,” Putin was quoted in Russian media as saying.

The drills also included twenty-five foreign delegations which participated. Other nations sent representatives to observe. As we noted earlier, one notable presence was a Pentagon delegation.

US military officers were on hand to observe the war games, and were photographed, in what was described as a surprise visit wherein Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin instructed that the US officials could look at “whatever is of interest for you.”

According to a description in Reuters:

“Who would have thought how the morning of another day of the Zapad-2025 exercise would begin?” it [the defense ministry] said in a statement noting their presence among representatives from 23 countries including two other NATO member states — Turkey and Hungary.

The ministry released video showing two uniformed U.S. officers thanking Khrenin for the invitation and shaking his hand. “We will show whatever is of interest for you. Whatever you want. You can go there and see, talk to people,” the minister told the Americans, who declined to speak to reporters.

State media reporters were on hand to capture the visit…

This development was also unprecedented and highly unusual given Belarus has been Moscow’s closest partner in executing the ‘special military operation’ in neighboring Ukraine, having utilized its territory to send tens of thousands of Russian troops into Ukraine in February 2022 and after.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/17/2025 – 05:45

AfD Triples Support In Germany’s Most Populous State, CDU & SPD Both Lose Votes

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AfD Triples Support In Germany’s Most Populous State, CDU & SPD Both Lose Votes

Via Remix News,

In the first major state elections since the new government, North Rhine-Westphalia went to the polls, with the Christian Democrats (CDU) coming out on top while the Social Democrats (SPD) crashed in support. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now the third-strongest party in the state, more than tripling its support from the last elections.

The state, which has 14 million eligible voters, served as a major litmus test for the new government.

The CDU was the clear winner, earning 33 percent of the vote, compared to its 2020 total of 34.2 percent.

The AfD was seen as growing its support substantially, jumping to 14.5 percent of the vote, a clear jump from 5.1 percent in the last elections. However, the party actually received a higher share of the vote during the federal elections, meaning support for the party appears to be stagnating.

Nevertheless, the establishment views the AfD results as a worrying sign.

“This result should give us pause and cannot let us sleep peacefully,” said North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst, of the CDU, to the “Report from Berlin.”

The left-wing SPD was seen as one of the big losers, falling to 22 percent in what was once considered one of its heartlands. In 1994, the party received 42 percent of the vote.

The far-left Green Party also sunk dramatically, going from 20 percent to 13.4 percent.

The local elections could have implications for the federal coalition between the CDU and SPD. With the SPD losing votes, it could turn more sharply against the CDU, with the two parties already sharply clashing over judicial appointments.

The votes were for thousands of candidates, including those running for district councilor, mayor, districting administrators, and other positions.

However, a looming crisis has to do with the fact that a majority of municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy. Only 16 out of 427 were able to put forward balanced budgets in 2024.

A number of run-off votes will also be taking place on Sept. 28. The CDU and SPD are combining forces to block AfD candidates. For the first time, the AfD will be in mayoral run-offs, including Norbert Emmerich in Gelsenkirchen, who scored 29.8 percent of the vote. However, he is far behind the SPD opponent, Andrea Henze, who received 37.1 percent of the votes.

In many of the other races, the AfD candidate appears to have little chance of victory.

NRW woes

Unemployment is growing in the German state, with 800,000 jobless reported in August. Bankruptcies are also growing, jumping to 3,190 in the first half of 2025, a 17.2 percent increase.

The AfD is still celebrating its results. Party co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated on X, writing it was a “great success.” However, the actual totals for the AfD turned out to be slightly less than exit polls initially predicted.

The AfD, however, continues to grow in strength in the east of the country. Furthermore, new polls show the party hitting close to 20 percent in Bavaria.

The party will still need to boost its support to close to 20 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia and other Western states if it ever hopes to secure the support of 30 percent of voters nationwide, one of its key goals. If it ever manages to secure such a voting share, it would make forming coalitions without the party at the federal level nearly impossible.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/17/2025 – 05:00

‘Eastern Sentry’: The New NATO Initiative To Protect The Eastern Flank

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‘Eastern Sentry’: The New NATO Initiative To Protect The Eastern Flank

Some eight NATO allies have prepared operation ‘Eastern Sentry’ following last week’s alleged Russian drone breach of Poland. It is a new joint military mission to bolster defense of Europe’s eastern flank, also after Romania had more recently reported a Russian drone incursion, resulting in the scrambling of fighter jets to track it.

“Following the Russian drone incursions into Poland, I have decided to deploy three Rafale fighter jets to contribute to the protection of Polish airspace and of NATO’s Eastern Flank together with our Allies,” President Emmanuel Macron announced on X this week. Along with France, the effort includes the UK, Italy, Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Spain, and The Netherlands. More nations are expected to join.

Via Army Recognition 

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has confirmed that his country will deploy Royal Air Force jets to Poland, while Italy will contribute two Eurofighter jets, and Germany has readied four Eurofighters. Denmark will also sent jets, and Czech Mi-171S helicopters have also arrived in Poland. Over 150 NATO troops have also initially arrived along with the equipment.

Meanwhile, eastern European and Baltic countries are already calling for more, including:

Anti-drone defense systems in NATO countries still need to be developed, Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkevics told a press conference on Tuesday.

NATO on Friday launched “Eastern Sentry,” a new military mission to bolster defense of Europe’s eastern flank in response to Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace last week.

The Washington Post wrote on Monday, “The incident raised serious questions about the alliance’s readiness to counter the relatively cheap, highly maneuverable but devastatingly destructive unmanned aerial vehicles that have redefined modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”

Additionally, in a Monday interview, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called on NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

“We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,” he said.

“Protection for our population — for example, from falling debris — would naturally be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory … If Ukraine were to ask us to shoot them down over its territory, that would be advantageous for us. If you ask me personally, we should consider it,” he added.

The Kremlin has essentially called this ‘idiotic’ and has made clear this would assure a direct Russia-NATO clash, likely leading to WW3. Much will depend on what Washington says, and its own potential role in ‘Eastern Sentry’.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/17/2025 – 04:15

Germany’s Shadow Budgets: Bundesbank Warns Of Fiscal Collapse

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Germany’s Shadow Budgets: Bundesbank Warns Of Fiscal Collapse

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

With the creation of “special funds” and shadow budgets, the German government is evading fiscal transparency and undermining parliamentary control – a practice now sharply criticized by both the Bundesbank and the Federal Audit Office.

France, meanwhile, offers a warning of where this path leads. Political chaos in Paris culminated in fiscal humiliation last week when Fitch Ratings downgraded French sovereign debt from AA– to A+. France has maneuvered itself into a debt spiral, fueled by unchecked government spending and a misguided attempt to paper over social fractures with cheap credit.

Shadow Budgets and Statism

Germany, instead of avoiding France’s mistakes, appears determined to follow them. The fiscal discipline that characterized the postwar era is long gone. Across party lines, there is consensus in Berlin: with creative accounting tricks in the form of “special funds,” the debt brake can simply be ignored. The pinnacle of this new strategy is Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s trillion-euro debt package, which includes a €500 billion special fund.

The official justification is noble: defense spending must not be constrained by the bond market, and Germany’s crumbling infrastructure must be modernized. Packaged nicely in the media, the German public is expected to accept this new mountain of debt. After all, it is supposedly “for the greater good.”

But the German Taxpayers’ Association has labeled these special funds exactly what they are: a colossal debt-shuffling scheme. In practice, spending that should be tax-financed is quietly offloaded into shadow budgets that rely on new borrowing.

Manipulation Everywhere

The bond market itself has become little more than a derivative of monetary policy. Berlin, like its European neighbors, is clearly relying on the European Central Bank to keep the debt pile liquid and to step in whenever investors retreat.

Together with Brussels’ interventionism, this has created a political framework that openly encourages state overreach. Parliamentary oversight has all but disappeared. More than half of Germany’s GDP already passes through state hands – a level of intervention unthinkable a generation ago.

Berlin’s strategic consensus is striking: the very state that manufactured the crisis – through suffocating regulation, a self-inflicted energy disaster, bloated public finances, and crushing taxation – now claims it will solve the crisis by doubling down on intervention. The logic is that of a kleptocratic alcoholic in a bar: he runs a tab, borrows from his neighbors, and when generosity runs out, steals directly from the counter. Ultimately, it is this debt binge, this addiction to central planning, that will bring Germany down as both a political and economic model.

There is little meaningful opposition. Whether in parliament or in the intellectual sphere, critics lack the resonance to form a powerful public phalanx against this destructive policy path.

Criticism From Unlikely Quarters

Now, however, criticism has emerged from an unexpected source: the German Bundesbank. Rarely intervening in day-to-day politics, the central bank used its August monthly report to criticize the use of special funds. It warned bluntly that billions earmarked for local governments would likely be diverted to fill existing budget gaps rather than finance infrastructure and climate projects, as promised.

The Bundesbank also pointed to the absence of effective structures for efficiency control. By outsourcing vast parts of the federal budget into special funds, Berlin is obscuring the country’s true fiscal position and undermining budget discipline.

Criticism of runaway statism is nothing new. What is striking, however, is that core state institutions such as the Bundesbank are now joining the chorus. The Bundesbank projects Germany’s deficit will climb to 4% of GDP over the next two years – and that is under the optimistic assumption that the economy does not deteriorate further.

Its report leaves little doubt: the €100 billion in funds allocated to states and municipalities will likely be misused, rather than going into the infrastructure investments so loudly promised to the public.

The Firefighting State

Meanwhile, ordinary citizens – at least those still in the productive economy – waste their days in crumbling public transport, endless traffic jams on decaying highways, or waiting at the foot of collapsing bridges.

Germany, according to the Bundesbank, is operating in “firefighting mode” – patching up budgetary gaps and social spending programs instead of addressing structural problems. Much of the new spending, it warns, risks being consumed by short-term consumption rather than long-term investment.

The central bank has therefore proposed reforms to strictly limit borrowing capacity and to enforce transparency. At best, it sees special funds with their own borrowing authority as a temporary solution – one that would still require strict parliamentary oversight.

Support From the Federal Audit Office

The Bundesbank’s stance is reinforced by the Federal Audit Office, which for months has been calling for tighter, more targeted use of new credit funds. It has demanded that Berlin reserve the right to claw back funds that are misused – a measure based on bitter experience. Past budgets, from integration funds to inflated COVID-19 aid packages, were set high precisely so that excess money could later be diverted to plug welfare deficits.

The trick is simple: new debt is hidden from the public, while the true costs are shifted into the future. A short-term stimulus effect may provide the ruling coalition with breathing space against rising opposition – but at the price of structural decline.

Straight Toward Insolvency

That Berlin is using shadow budgets to buy time is hardly surprising. There is bipartisan conviction in the capital that creative accounting and oversized state demand can somehow solve both the fiscal crisis and the economic malaise.

But this is pure Keynesian delusion. The state as Leviathan, pretending to be omnipotent – and yet repeatedly colliding with reality. When central planning fails, the blame is always shifted onto the bond market, which stubbornly refuses to accept the illusion that debt-financed interventions can solve everything.

Regardless of how it is structured, the “special fund” is nothing but a monument to political failure. Responsibility lies squarely with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who endorsed the scheme both for coalition reasons and out of personal conviction.

The principle remains clear: every euro siphoned from private capital markets and funneled into the redistribution machine of the state is a lost euro. And every debt-financed state policy leaves behind nothing but new liabilities – to be paid later through taxes or inflation.

There is no free lunch. Only bad policy.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/17/2025 – 03:30

Poland Receives Single Largest Delivery Of M1 Abrams Tanks From US

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Poland Receives Single Largest Delivery Of M1 Abrams Tanks From US

The Western allies continue to bolster defenses of the largest NATO ‘eastern flank’ country which borders Ukraine, parallel to Russia ramping up its drone and missile attacks across the war-ravaged country.

Poland this week has received 38 new M1A2 Abrams tanks from the United States, marking the largest single delivery so far under a defense agreement signed in 2022. It was the third delivery under the contract.

AFP/Getty Images

The delivery brings the total number of American-made tanks delivered to Poland to 85, with more expected through 2026, based on the contract.

The shipment included additional support equipment, such as 14 recovery vehicles designed to tow damaged tanks off the battlefield. The deal will also see the transfer of bridging systems and ammunition for the tanks.

The Polish armed forces already possess German Leopard 2s, South Korean K2 Black Panthers, and Polish-made PT-91s – but the Abrams are part of an effort of Warsaw to rapidly modernize its forces, with the Ukraine war raging just next door.

The very first shipment was back in January of this year, and included over two dozen of the US main battle tanks. In total the contract stipulates 250 M1A2 SEPv3 tanks to be delivered through 2026. These have enhanced packages for greater maneuverability, advanced tech, and greater crew protections than the standard Abrams.

American military magazine Stripes previously wrote:

For the Polish army, the Abrams tank serves as the centerpiece of a modernization effort that has picked up momentum in the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Patriot missiles, Apache attack helicopters, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and F-35 fighter jets are other major weapons systems that Warsaw has been busy adding to its arsenal.

Patriot missiles, Apache attack helicopters, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and F-35 fighter jets are other major weapons systems that Warsaw has been busy adding to its arsenal.

In the wake of last week’s Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, Warsaw officials have only grown more hawkish in wanting to ‘stand up’ to Russia.

For example, in a Monday interview, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called on NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

“We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,” he said.

Commenting on the drone breach incident, The Washington Post observed on Monday, “The incident raised serious questions about the alliance’s readiness to counter the relatively cheap, highly maneuverable but devastatingly destructive unmanned aerial vehicles that have redefined modern warfare since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/17/2025 – 02:45

Israeli Air Defense In Cyprus Extends Intel Reach Over Turkey: ‘More Dangerous Than S-300s’

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Israeli Air Defense In Cyprus Extends Intel Reach Over Turkey: ‘More Dangerous Than S-300s’

Via Middle East Eye

Israel delivered advanced air defense systems to Cyprus last week, marking the third shipment since December amid rising tensions with Turkey, sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.

A video published on Thursday showed a truck passing through the port of Limassol transporting components of the Barak MX system, an aerial interceptor capable of striking threats up to 150km away. The Cypriot news site Reporter confirmed that the Barak MX system has now been fully delivered and is expected to become operational this year.

An IAI Barak MX air defense launcher in Ashdod, Israel, via Reuters.

The delivery comes after Shay Gal, vice president of external relations at Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), which manufactures the Barak MX, argued in a July article that Israel should reconsider its approach toward Cyprus and devise military plans to “liberate” the island’s north from Turkish forces.

“Israel, in coordination with Greece and Cyprus, must prepare a contingency operation for liberating the island’s north,” Gal wrote. “Such an operation would neutralize Turkish reinforcement capabilities from the mainland, eliminate air-defense systems in northern Cyprus, destroy intelligence and command centers, and ultimately remove Turkish forces, restoring internationally recognized Cypriot sovereignty.”

Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 after a failed coup aimed at uniting the island with Greece. Since then, Cyprus has remained divided between the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Ankara.

So far, Ankara has remained silent about the newly deployed systems, which carry advanced surveillance and intelligence-gathering functions through their 3D radar. With a range of up to 460km, the system provides a “digital umbrella” that covers a significant part of southern Turkey’s airspace.

Turkey and southern Cyprus nearly came to war in 1997 after the latter attempted to acquire two Russian-made S-300 air defense missile systems, triggering threats of an all-out military response from Ankara.

The crisis ended when Greece accepted the S-300s on its territory, while Cyprus sought alternative systems. “This is a system far more dangerous than the S-300, which [southern Cyprus] ordered from Russia in 1997 but never deployed,” said Arda Mevlutoglu, a prominent Turkish defence analyst.

“Given the current state of military ties between Israel and the Greek Cypriot administration, this powerful air defense system and radar will undoubtedly become a central element of Israel’s intelligence network in the eastern Mediterranean.”

According to Mevlutoglu, the Barak MX poses a significant threat to Turkish air and ground forces both in Cyprus and across the wider eastern Mediterranean, as its radar is also capable of detecting artillery, mortar and rocket battery fire within 100km.

However, Reporter quoted a source suggesting that the Cypriot version of the Barak MX might not include all of its advertised features, since the system is customised for each client nation.

Yanki Bagcioglu, a retired rear admiral and deputy chairman of the Turkish opposition CHP party, called the system’s deployment a violation of international law. “This step will destabilise the fragile balance in the eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus, while directly threatening Turkey’s national security,” he said.

Via BBC

Cypriot Defense Minister Vasilis Palmas defended the acquisition on Tuesday, arguing that his government has an obligation to develop credible deterrence capabilities as “Turkey continues to occupy” the island.

Asked whether the Barak MX purchase was part of a defense framework with Israel, Palmas stressed that Cyprus’s decisions on armaments are a sovereign matter. “Any confrontation between Israel and Turkey does not concern us, except in the sense that we follow the geopolitical developments in our region. Our primary duty is to protect ourselves,” he said.

Turkish security sources told Turkish media that the systems are currently undergoing tests at Paphos air base and have not yet been placed into active service. They added that subsequent Israeli shipments are being closely monitored.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/17/2025 – 02:00

Weaponized Scoops: New Russiagate Documents Expose Media/Government Collusion

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Weaponized Scoops: New Russiagate Documents Expose Media/Government Collusion

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations,

Recently declassified documents indicate that people close to former FBI Director James Comey and Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff were connected to leaks of classified information to prominent reporters designed to portray Donald Trump and his allies as being in league with Russia.   

Written in 2017, the FBI documents expose how selected Washington reporters, including Ellen Nakashima of the Washington Post and Michael Schmidt of the New York Times, scored a series of Pulitzer Prize-winning scoops in 2017 by repeating false and inflammatory leaks during President Trump’s first term.   

Much of their reporting has been debunked – and shown to be part of a smear campaign by high-ranking officials to undermine Trump, but the identities of those leakers have remained hidden because of the government’s apparent unwillingness to expose its own and the refusal of reporters to identify the people who misled them and the nation.    

Although the heavily redacted recent disclosures do not specifically identify the suspected leakers, an RCI analysis of the documents strongly suggests that people close to Comey and Schiff, among others, were feeding the reporters information to advance the Russiagate hoax.   

The documents reveal a cascade of misdeeds and failures. These include the effort of government officials to create and leak misleading classified information to favored reporters and the failure of reporters to scrutinize the information they were given before rushing it into print; and the subsequent failure of federal investigators to hold anyone accountable for the breaches of security.   

The documents also detail the incestuous nature of media-government relationships inside the D.C. Beltway. In some cases, spouses and friends of government officials and reporters were used to spread damaging misinformation about Trump, making it difficult for federal investigators to follow the trail of illegal disclosures.   

All of these cozy friendships of leakers and leaker recipients, many of whom are married to each other, are precisely why reporters adore hiding their sourcing behind walls of ‘senior administration officials’ or ‘senior U.S. officials’ and associated disguises,” said Tim Graham, director of media analysis for the Media Research Center, a Washington-based journalism watchdog group.    

‘Topple the Administration’

The new disclosures include the previously sealed testimony of an FBI informant who’d worked on the Democratic side of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence for more than a decade, who told agents that “all hell broke loose” after Trump’s surprising 2016 election win. In February 2017, he asserted, Schiff, then a House member, hatched a plan to weaponize U.S. intelligence to smear Trump in the media as a Kremlin conspirator with the goal of triggering his impeachment. Schiff was the ranking Democratic member of the committee at the time.   

“Leaking the information was one way to topple the administration,” the source told the FBI in August 2017, adding that “everything is directed at Trump and trying to get him impeached.”   

To that end, Schiff formed a “Russia team” within the committee to view and disseminate classified material on Trump that it requested from the CIA and FBI, the informant said. Main team members allegedly included Schiff staffers Rheanne Wirkkala and Timothy Bergreen. Schiff’s staff director, Michael Bahar, and his communications director, Patrick Boland, allegedly “orchestrated” the smear campaign. 

A spokesperson for Sen. Schiff “categorically” denied the allegation against Boland, now Schiff’s chief of staff, and claimed that the FBI informant was “a disgruntled former staffer who was fired by the House Intelligence Committee in early 2017 for a pattern of inappropriate conduct, including mistreatment of staff and compromising activity on foreign official travel.”

Records, however, show the informant left the committee in September 2017, and had made his allegations to the FBI in interviews with agents while he was still on staff, according to FBI-302 summaries.

Wirkkala, Bergreen and Bahar did not respond to requests for comment.  

The FBI source, “who considered Schiff a friend,” told agents that he was called into the 2017 meeting during which Schiff specifically authorized leaking classified “dirt“ to reporters.   

“In this meeting, SCHIFF stated that the group would leak classified information which was derogatory to President of the United States Donald J. Trump,” said the FBI interview report, known as an FD-302, which noted that the whistleblower memorialized the Monday, Feb. 13, 2017, staff meeting in an email he sent to himself the next day.  “SCHIFF stated the information would be used to indict President TRUMP.”  

Schiff has denied the allegations. The FBI subpoenaed some of the California lawmaker’s communications records, but never charged him with a crime. (Schiff is currently under investigation for possible mortgage fraud.)   

The anonymous whistleblower – whose name is blacked out in the FBI reports, but according to multiple sources is Robert Minehart – worked as policy advisor to Schiff on the minority side of the intelligence committee. He first joined the committee in 2005, after then-ranking Democratic Rep. Jane Harman of California recruited him from the National Security Agency, where he worked as an engineer. 

Minehart left the panel in late 2017 after he said Schiff loyalists “marginalized” him for complaining to both the committee’s security chief and the CIA’s inspector general about “the rampant leaking” of classified information. He told FBI field agents he believed the classified leaks were “unethical and treasonous,” but was reluctant to complain about them to the FBI congressional liaison office because he viewed the officials there as “too embedded with HPSCI staff and cannot trust them.”  

Former committee staffers who worked with Minehart said he was a well-respected intelligence professional who was concerned with safeguarding classified information. They viewed him as credible, reliable, and nonpartisan.   

“I remember Bob as a former NSA [engineer] who worked the NSA account for the Democrats,” said Fred Fleitz, a former CIA analyst who served under former GOP House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers. “But he was never part of the Democrat partisanship on the committee.”   

Federal Election Commission records show Minehart has donated to both Democratic and Republican congressional candidates. Though he hasn’t contributed directly to any presidential campaign, he gave money to a PAC tied to Trump in both 2022 and 2023. Attempts to reach Minehart, now a technology consultant based in Northern Virginia, were unsuccessful.   

Leaking to the Press

Starting in 2016, FBI investigative documents show that Ellen Nakashima was the go-to reporter for intelligence community leaks on Trump and later became the subject of four separate leak investigations. In June of that year, she broke the seminal story in the Washington Post, alleging that “Russian government hackers penetrated DNC.” This claim, which was the first effort to insert Russia into the 2016 election, was advanced by the

Democratic cybersecurity contractor CrowdStrike. As RCI has previously reported, CrowdStrike’s president, Shawn Henry, later confessed in closed-door congressional testimony that CrowdStrike lacked “concrete evidence” to support its finding that Moscow was to blame for stealing emails and other DNC data published by WikiLeaks. Nakashima, who reported that the DNC breach was foreign “espionage” and not the work of criminal hackers, never revisited her original story after contradictory facts emerged.   

In early December 2016, Nakashima and her colleagues were leaked a “secret CIA assessment” that found Russia was trying “to help Trump win the White House,” according to her scoop. Nakashima reported that this was the “consensus view” of the Intelligence Community, citing “a senior U.S. official” who’d been briefed on the material. Nakashima quoted Schiff at the end of her story. Later documents showed that there was no consensus. Many CIA and other intel analysts dissented from the view and believed Moscow’s aim was simply to undermine confidence in U.S. elections.   

Less than three months after Trump took office, Nakashima was the lead reporter on another seeming blockbuster story advancing the Russian “collusion” narrative pushed by Democrats – that the FBI had obtained a wiretap warrant under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to monitor former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page as “an agent of Russia.” FISA information is highly classified and almost never disclosed. But Nakashima was the beneficiary of the unusual leak, and on April 11, 2017, she reported: “This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump associate was in touch with Russian agents.” 

Only, it turns out that Page never met with the Russian agents, and the wiretap warrant application – later invalidated by the FISA court – was also based on the bogus Clinton-funded opposition research known as the Steele dossier. She attributed her reporting to unnamed “U.S. officials.” Deep in her article, she once again quoted Schiff on the record.    

The Schiff staffers who allegedly funneled secrets to Nakashima gathered them from CIA and FBI “read rooms” Schiff had asked the agencies to set up, according to information provided to the FBI.   

The documents indicate that some of the leaks may have been laundered through a “cut-out” who happened to be the husband of a Schiff loyalist on the Democratic staff of the House Intelligence Committee. The husband, then a reporter for the Baltimore Sun, knew Nakashima from their days working together at the Post.   

Though their names are hidden under redactions, federal authorities confirmed that the former Schiff staffer who allegedly divulged the information is Rheanne Wirkkala, and the “cut-out” is her husband Ian Duncan, then a reporter for the Sun.   

“[Wirkkala]’s spouse has worked with Ellen Nakishima [sic] of the Washington Post,” the FBI report states. “[Wirkkala] provided information to her husband who had brokered it out to other reporters,” including allegedly Nakashima.   

A Democrat donor, Wirkkala also helped Schiff prosecute the first impeachment of Trump in 2019 as his deputy director of investigations.   

In 2021, Wirkkala left the House Intelligence Committee to take a high-level Pentagon post in the Biden administration. She now works for Clarion Strategies, a D.C.-based consulting firm co-founded by Julianne Smith, who appears in a recently declassified intelligence report as the Hillary Clinton campaign adviser who solicited Obama White House officials for compromising material on Trump and Russia in 2016. President Obama’s former Chief of Staff Denis McDonough is a principal in the firm.   

Wirkkala did not respond to requests for comment. Her husband, Duncan, is now working at the Washington Post.   

Records also show that Nakashima was also communicating with former senior Senate Intelligence Committee staffer James Wolfe, who was investigated for leaking classified materials on Trump aide Page and ultimately convicted of lying to FBI agents about contacting Nakashima and other reporters.   

From December 2015 to June 2017, Nakashima and Wolfe exchanged emails at least five times, according to court records. In one exchange, Nakashima allegedly sent Wolfe a code to use in an encrypted messaging application. In another, she allegedly discussed “obtaining the SSCI’s public Wi-Fi password.”   

During a March 2021 event addressing “National Security Leaks” – where she shared the stage with a prime driver of the Russiagate hoax, former CIA Director John Brennan – Nakashima dismissed complaints by media critics that she acts as a “stenographer” for the Intelligence community. “The public has a wildly inaccurate view of how I as a national security reporter go about my job,” she said at the symposium. “It’s not that I get a story because someone decided to leak it to me and hand it to me on a silver platter.”   

In a recent statement, Post Executive Editor Matt Murray defended the veteran reporter’s integrity, asserting: “For three decades, Ellen Nakashima has been one of the most careful, fair-minded, and highly regarded reporters covering national security.”   

However, a former Washington Post colleague of Nakashima said that, like many reporters who won Pulitzers for their Russiagate coverage, she was too reliant on anti-Trump sources and is “too invested” in the fast-unraveling story now to look back and reassess it with fresh eyes.    

Noting that Nakashima has not cleared up the record by identifying her sources in the intelligence community who fed her information that turned out to be wrong or misleading, the former senior Post reporter said Nakashima is protecting them, even as some of them fall under criminal investigation for their role in perpetuating a massive fraud against the president.   

“She’s running interference [for them], and worrying about her own reporting looking bad,” said the Post source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.   

Cozy Relationship

A similarly cozy relationship was forged between Michael Schmidt of the New York Times and Columbia University law professor Daniel Richman, a close friend of Comey. After Trump fired Comey in 2017, the FBI documents note, “Comey used Richman as a conduit to convey to the media memoranda of his meetings with President Trump,” which were classified.   

The newly released FBI memos reveal that Schmidt, who is married to anti-Trump MSNBC host Nicolle Wallace, spent considerable time with Richman, who was later investigated for leaking classified material to Schmidt. Richman told the FBI he spoke to journalists “to correct stories critical of Comey, [and] the FBI and to shape future press coverage.” Richman told agents “he did not know who gave Schmidt the classified information,” but he was “pretty sure” it wasn’t him, before hedging that he was sure “with a discount.” He also claimed Comey “never asked” him to talk to the media.   

Like Nakashima, Schmidt credulously reported every angle of the Russiagate investigation despite the paucity of “collusion” evidence.   

One of those Times stories, “Comey Tried to Shield the F.B.I. From Politics. Then He Shaped an Election,” became the subject of a years-long leak investigation. The April 22, 2017, article gave a supposed insider account of how Comey handled the investigations of Clinton’s email scandal and Russiagate during the 2016 election. But it was clearly spun in Comey’s favor. “Partisanship was not a factor in Mr. Comey’s approach to the two investigations,” Schmidt wrote. “In the case of Mr. Trump, he conducted the investigation by the book.” In fact, two independent investigations found serious misconduct in both probes.   

FBI documents also reveal that former FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page made three separate trips to the New York Times in 2017 before the Schmidt article was published – on March 10, March 30, and April 10 – to provide “investigator-level” briefings to Times editors and reporters – all concerning the same flattering story about Comey. They discussed classified information during the briefings, the documents say.   

Schmidt’s May 2017 article, “Comey Memo Says Trump Asked Him to End Flynn Investigation,” helped pressure the appointment of Special Counsel Robert Mueller to take over the Russiagate case. Mueller focused on potential obstruction, but in the end found no evidence for obstruction or collusion.   

Nonetheless, Schmidt’s work was among the newspaper’s 2018 Pulitzer-winning stories on Russiagate. The three-way friendship between Schmidt, his source, and the subject of his story was not disclosed to the Pulitzer board – or the Times readership. “Schmidt visited Richman’s house numerous times,” the FBI documents reveal.   

A New York Times spokeswoman, Danielle Rhoades-Ha, said that the stories using Richman as a source “raise no concerns about the accuracy of The Times’s reporting, which relied on multiple sources.” Asked about the veracity of reporting about Comey allegedly conducting the Russiagate investigation “by the book,” the Times did not respond.Richman was not charged with perjury or leaking classified information. Neither was Comey, although he is currently under investigation for possible false statements to Congress.   

Another Trump-Russia conspiracy reporter, Shane Harris, also allegedly received classified intelligence from Schiff’s committee when he worked for the Wall Street Journal.   

Whistleblower Allegations

The FBI whistleblower claimed that within 24 hours of Democratic House intelligence panel member Eric Swalwell receiving a CIA document, some of the information in it showed up “almost verbatim” in a July 1, 2017, article by Harris that referred to “Russian hackers.” Published under the headline, “GOP Activist Who Sought Clinton Emails Cited Trump Campaign Officials,” the story by Harris and several colleagues cited as sources, “U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence.”   

“[CIA] officials descended upon HPSCI’s offices, threatening to stop providing information unless the leaking ended,” recounted the FBI’s summary of the whistleblower interview.   

The committee whistleblower suspected Swalwell “played a role in the leak,” noting the California Democrat “previously had been warned to be careful because he had a reputation for leaking classified information.” An outspoken Trump critic, Swalwell has denied being the source of leaks.   

Shane Harris, who later jumped to the Washington Post before recently landing at The Atlantic, did not respond to requests for comment.   

FBI investigators wrote that the committee whistleblower “advised it is likely the leaks are being conducted through cutouts.” They added, “He believed some individuals may be using their spouse’s phones to contact the media” and “conceal” their leaks.   

One of these individuals was believed to be Schiff’s staff director, Michael Bahar, a Democrat and former Obama adviser who led the committee’s Russiagate investigation and became the FBI’s prime suspect in its leak investigation.    

During a February 2017 committee meeting, the whistleblower told FBI agents that Bahar “instructed the staff to collect information from the USIC [U.S. Intelligence Community] for purposes of making it public.”   

After Bahar left the committee in June 2017, the whistleblower alleged, he continued to leak information he received from a protege he placed on the panel to “relay” classified material. While the protege’s name is hidden under redactions, authorities confirmed the staffer is Thomas Eager.   

“[Eager] functioned as [Bahar’s] insider at the committee,” according to an FBI report, even though “committee rules prohibited communications with former staffers on official matters.”   

He [Eager] tells [Bahar] what he learned and [Bahar] takes it to the media,” the whistleblower alleged in an August 2017 FBI interview.   

No charges were filed against either Eager or Bahar, who did not reply to requests for comment.   

Ineffective Investigations

Declassified documents show that the FBI and DOJ launched no fewer than seven classified leak investigations that centered on 2017 reporting on the Russiagate investigation. They targeted several high-ranking Obama officials, two Democratic members of Congress – Schiff and Swalwell – and more than three dozen Hill staffers from both parties (including now-FBI Director Kash Patel, then a House intel lawyer for chairman Devin Nunes), along with numerous journalists who were on the receiving end of the leaks.   

None of the probes led to a single prosecution for espionage or mishandling secrets.   

Critics say the investigations – conducted under the leadership of Comey’s deputy Andrew McCabe, who was himself investigated by DOJ’s IG for leaking classified information to the media – were botched, likely on purpose. 

There hasn’t been nearly enough transparency on why those investigations didn’t result in any accountability for those responsible,” said Jason Foster, a former Republican staffer who served as chief investigative counsel to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley. Foster said DOJ subpoenaed his personal phone and email records while he worked on the Hill in 2017. 

Seizing the communications records of suspected leakers and journalists was crucial to identifying the sources of the leaks in the massive conspiracy against Trump. But in their search warrants, investigators failed to include among the records they sought the deleted texts from the encrypted Signal app used by reporters and leakers, which they could have obtained by seizing cell phones.   

And the telephone records they did obtain included only the phone numbers of the calls made to and from the targeted device over the specified time period, and the duration of the calls, but excluded what was texted in those phone calls. What’s more, the emails taken included just the metadata, not the content of the messages. The warrants covered only “non content communication records.”   

Also, “the government did not seek local and long-distance telephone records for the two members of Congress” – Schiff and Swalwell, according to a December 2024 review of the FBI’s investigative efforts by former Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz. “The compulsory process did not seek the content of any [of their] communications.”   

In the Nakashima probe, agents oddly limited their search of her phone records to the period from April 15, 2017, to July 31, 2017, which meant that any contacts with House or Senate intel leakers prior to her April 11, 2017, story on the Page FISA warrants would not have been discovered. More curious, investigators never obtained any records from her work email accounts, even though the court approved such searches.   

Agents also failed to obtain even the logs of the Google emails of Schmidt and three other New York Times reporters in their investigations of classified leaks to the Times in 2017, even though a judge authorized giving investigators access to the data.   

The IG report said allegations from the “committee witness” – believed to be Minehart – “were not ultimately substantiated.” However, agents failed to pursue the phone records for some of the spouses whose phones were used by staffers he accused of leaking. And they never sought any of the phone records for an additional staffer ID’d by Minehart.   

And while investigators focused on former Schiff staff director and general counsel Bahar as a prime leak suspect, they failed to obtain any of his emails while he served on the committee. The scope of their Google email search began after he left the House in June 2017.   

A Curious Claim

Declassified FBI memos suggest that the bureau’s investigation was blunted by an unnamed House Intelligence Committee lawyer who advanced the curious claim that both members and congressional aides had immunity from criminal prosecution under the Constitution’s “speech or debate clause.”  

The investigators’ deference to this novel notion apparently hampered the probe of Bahar, who visited the “read room” with the classified material in early 2017 and subsequently made contact by phone with Nakashima and other Post reporters who authored the articles that disclosed classified information, according to the IG report.   

“To avoid gathering information that would be protected by the Speech or Debate Clause, the Google search warrant sought records beginning on the date the Senior Committee Staffer [Bahar] departed from government service,” the IG report said.   

Investigators also limited what Apple phone records of Bahar they could use as evidence by applying “filter procedures to review the contents of the search warrant returns to segregate Speech or Debate material and attorney-client privileged material,” the report said.   

In his report, then-DOJ IG Horowitz said that agents and prosecutors “ultimately determined that [Bahar] likely did not leak the classified information to the reporters and the investigation was closed without any charges being filed.”   The IG report said that the search warrant application for Bahar’s records noted that the “Committee Witness” — Minehart — was of “unknown reliability.”

FBI documents indicate the New York Times leak investigation was opened by Joseph Pientka, the supervisory special agent who initially ran the Russiagate probe against Trump out of bureau headquarters. And the leak probe was overseen by DOJ official David Laufman, the Obama appointee and Democratic Party campaign donor who charged several Trump advisers under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.   

Though the statute of limitations may be close to expiring, federal law enforcement sources say FBI Director Patel is considering reopening the leak investigations. The statutory clock for prosecuting the federal offense of disclosing classified information runs ten years. And there is no period of limitation for prosecuting espionage cases.   

The evidence gathered from the investigations has not been destroyed, according to the IG report. Digital copies of the communications records obtained are stored in the FBI’s case management system, known as Sentinel, and hard copies are retained in a locked filing cabinet.   

Media Collusion

Since Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard essentially reopened the Russiagate story by declassifying hundreds of pages of documents exposing how Obama administration intelligence was manufactured against Trump, the Washington Post and other major media have largely refused to report the story they once covered zealously.   

They’ve even blacked out the claims of a former top ODNI cyber-analyst who said he was “pressured” to change his assessments about Russian election influence to fit the anti-Trump narrative.  

The same media that breathlessly reported every unverified claim in the Steele dossier now demands ‘context’ and ‘corroboration’ when faced with damning primary documents,” said Peter Flaherty, chairman of the National Legal and Policy Center in Washington. “This double standard – embracing unverified gossip when it suits their narrative but dismissing hard evidence when it doesn’t – reveals a media more interested in protecting Democratic allies than pursuing truth.”   

For her part, Nakashima has trained her investigative sights on Gabbard, who claims the Post reporter has been “stalking” and “harassing” her and her staff, while calling intelligence officials from a “burner phone” to disguise her identity while trying to entice them into sharing derogatory information about Gabbard.   

Some New York Times and Washington Post alumni who have won Pulitzers covering previous national security issues say they’re disappointed their former colleagues aren’t doing more to cover the declassification of Intelligence Community documents strongly suggesting the Trump-Russia “collusion” scandal was cooked up for political reasons.   

“The documents that came out in the past couple of months are jaw-dropping. It’s rare to see such slam-dunk evidence of a conspiracy,” said former Washington Post investigative reporter Susan Schmidt. “But the entire mainstream media have been operating from an anti-Trump agenda, and they are not reporting on the exposé of the hoax that’s coming out.”   

Former New York Times Pulitzer winner Jeff Gerth agreed: “The media aren’t looking for Russiagate [hoax] scoops, nor will they fairly present the ones others get if they reflect poorly on their prior reporting.”   

They’re in a defensive posture and aren’t inclined to report deeply on anything that helps Trump,” he explained.   

Tim Graham said the release of FBI leak records proves the real scandal was never Russia collusion but “media collusion” – the collaboration between legacy media journalists and federal government malcontents who shared a common goal of knee-capping Trump.   

Even though declassified documents expose their incestuous ties, Graham added, “these journalists still shamelessly pretend they didn’t collude with their fellow liberals at government agencies to undermine their domestic enemy Trump at every turn.”   

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/16/2025 – 23:15

If Mental Health Experts Can’t Identify Murderers, What’s The Backup Plan?

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If Mental Health Experts Can’t Identify Murderers, What’s The Backup Plan?

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. and Rep. Thomas Massie via RealClearPolitics,

A profound mental health crisis lies at the heart of violence in America. Decarlos Brown Jr., the man who brutally stabbed to death the Ukrainian woman in Charlotte, North Carolina, was in a mental hospital earlier this year, and diagnosed with schizophrenia. But doctors wouldn’t have released him if they had viewed him as a danger to himself or others.

Deadly stabbing on NC train Aug. 22, 2025 (WCNC:Charlotte Area Transit System per CNN Newsource)

Similarly, the killers at Minneapolis’ Annunciation Catholic School and Nashville’s Covenant School both struggled with mental illness. Nearly all mass shooters also battled suicidal thoughts.

We will never arrest our way out of issues such as homelessness and mental health,” Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles warned after the stabbing death. “Mental health disease is just that – a disease. It needs to be treated with the same compassion.” After the Minneapolis attack, House Speaker Mike Johnson underscored the issue: “The problem is the human heart. It’s mental health. There are things that we can do.”

Yet, despite the fact that more than half of mass public shooters over the past 25 years were already under the care of mental health professionals, not a single one was identified as a danger to themselves or others. An entire body of academic research now explores why mental health experts so often fail to predict these attacks.

When professionals cannot identify threats before tragedy strikes, society must ask: What is the backup plan?

The Minneapolis school murderer admitted: “I am severely depressed and have been suicidal for years.” After the Nashville school shooting, police concluded the killer was “highly depressed and highly suicidal throughout her life.” Yet even with regular psychiatric care, experts found no signs of homicidal or suicidal intent.

The 2022 Buffalo supermarket killer showed the same pattern. In June 2021, when asked about his future plans, he answered that he wanted to attend summer school, murder people there, and then commit suicide. Alarmed, his teacher sent him for evaluation by two mental health professionals. He told them it was a joke, and they let him go. Later he admitted: “I got out of it because I stuck with the story that I was getting out of class and I just stupidly wrote that down. It was not a joke, I wrote that down because that’s what I was planning to do.”

Many well-known mass killers saw psychiatrists before their attacks. Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, who murdered 13 people at Fort Hood in 2009, was himself an Army psychiatrist. Elliot Rodger (Santa Barbara) had received years of high-level counseling, but like the Buffalo killer, Rodger simply knew not to reveal his true intentions. The Army psychiatrist who last saw Ivan Lopez (the second Fort Hood shooter) concluded there was no “sign of likely violence, either to himself or to others.”

Aurora movie theater shooter James Holmes’ psychiatrist did warn University of Colorado officials about Holmes’ violent fantasies shortly before his attack, but even she dismissed the threat as insufficient for custody. And both a court-appointed psychologist and a hospital psychiatrist found Virginia Tech shooter Seung-Hui Cho posed no danger to himself or others.

Psychiatrists have every incentive to get these diagnoses right. Beyond professional pride and the desire to help, they face legal obligations to report threats. Families of victims have even sued psychiatrists for failing to recommend confinement. Despite this, psychiatrists consistently underestimate the danger.

The problem runs deep enough to generate a whole academic literature. Some experts suggest psychiatrists try to prove their fearlessness or become desensitized to risk. Additional training in unusual cases may help, but predicting such rare outcomes will always remain extremely difficult.

Hindsight makes the warning signs look obvious. Before the attack, even to experts, they rarely do. And while addressing mental illness, we should not stigmatize it. Mentally ill people are far more likely to become victims of violence than perpetrators. Only a tiny fraction ever commit murder.

Take schizophrenia: More than 3.5 million Americans live with the disorder, yet only one schizophrenic has committed a mass attack since 2019. That makes the odds of such a crime less than one in 3.5 million – extremely rare.

No one wants dangerous individuals to access weapons. Are we going to disarm all mentally ill people, even though they themselves are at increased risk of violent crime? One woman we know saw her husband murdered in front of her by her stalker. She was very depressed but feared that in seeking mental help she would be denied the right to own a gun (which she needed to protect herself).

Another factor that makes these attacks difficult to stop is that they are planned long in advance, with six months being about the shortest. The Sandy Hook massacre was planned for over two and a half years, allowing the perpetrator plenty of time to obtain weapons.

These killers, like the recent attacker in Minneapolis, often state outright in their manifestos and diaries that they target “gun-free zones.” They may be crazy, but they aren’t stupid. They expect to die, but they want attention when they do. They know that the higher the body count, the more media coverage they’ll receive. That’s why they choose places where no one can fight back.

The attack in Charlotte happened in a gun-free zone. The woman had no chance to defend herself when the attacker struck from behind, and no one on the train intervened. Bystanders may have hesitated out of fear – after all, the killer was a large man armed with a knife, even though knives are also banned on public transportation. If someone had carried a firearm, they could have stopped the assault, just as a Marine veteran in July did in a Michigan Walmart, where at gun point he forced a knife-wielding attacker to drop his weapon. Others who tried to stop the attacker without a gun were stabbed.

Our mental health system cannot serve as the last line of defense – too many mistakes slip through. If mental health professionals can’t reliably stop these attackers before they strike, we must ask: What’s the backup plan? Leaving targets unprotected isn’t the best option.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/16/2025 – 22:35