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Ram Cancels All-Electric Pickup Truck Plan Citing Slowing Demand

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Ram Cancels All-Electric Pickup Truck Plan Citing Slowing Demand

Ram has abandoned plans to launch an electric pickup truck, according to a Sept. 12 statement from Stellantis.

“As demand for full-size battery-electric trucks slows in North America, Stellantis is reassessing its product strategy and will discontinue development of a full-size [battery-electric] pickup,” the company stated.

In December 2024, the company stated that it planned on launching its Ram 1500 battery-electric pickup in the first half of 2025.

As part of the latest decision, Ramcharger, a pickup truck featuring an electric battery and a gas engine, will be renamed the Ram 1500 REV.

“This vehicle will set a new benchmark in the half-ton segment, offering exceptional range, towing capability, and payload performance,” the Stellantis statement reads.

As Naveen Athrappully reports below for The Epoch Times, Stellantis’s decision to end its full battery-electric trucks comes as a federal tax incentive for purchasing electric vehicles (EVs) is scheduled to end this month.

The New Clean Vehicle Tax Credit grants up to $7,500 in incentives for buying an EV. The credit was offered as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022.

On July 4, President Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law, scheduling the credit to end on Sept. 30. After this date, EV purchases will stop receiving subsidies.

In a Sept. 9 statement, General Motors said it expects negative effects over the short term from the incentives ending.

It stated that August was GM’s “best month ever” in terms of EV sales and that the company is expecting strong demand in September as well.

“The question, of course, is what’s next?“ the company stated. ”There’s no doubt we’ll see lower EV sales next quarter after tax credits end September 30, and it may take several months for the market to normalize. We will almost certainly see a smaller EV market for a while, and we won’t overproduce.”

However, GM remains positive about the EV market’s potential.

“We believe GM can continue to grow EV market share,“ the company stated. ”Our confidence in the future of our EV business starts with our portfolio. Before there was an [Inflation Reduction Act], the strongest segments were affordable EVs and luxury, and we have those bases covered with our stunning Cadillacs, the Chevrolet Equinox EV, and soon, the new Chevrolet Bolt.”

According to a Sept. 3 statement from Cox Automotive, the EV market outlook among dealers hit a “record low” in the third quarter.

“The EV market outlook index, which asked dealers about the EV market three months from now, dropped to 30, the lowest score on record,” Cox stated in a commentary.

Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox, said: “The outlook for future EV sales really comes as no surprise: Dealers have calendars too; they see the end of government-backed incentives fast approaching and are expecting a slowdown as the market adjusts to a new reality in Q4.”

On his first day in office, Trump signed the “Unleashing American Energy” executive order, calling for the removal of incentives for EVs.

Burdensome and ideologically motivated regulations have impeded the development of the United States’ abundant energy resources, the order states.

The order calls for ending the EV mandate, removing regulatory barriers to motor vehicle access, and terminating state emission waivers that limit the sale of gas-powered vehicles.

In June, Trump signed a package of resolutions blocking California’s vehicle emission mandates, which included phasing out the sale of new gasoline-only vehicles by 2035.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Attorney General Rob Bonta then sued the administration over the revocation of state policies, according to a June 12 statement from the governor’s office.

“Trump’s all-out assault on California continues—and this time he’s destroying our clean air and America’s global competitiveness in the process,“ Newsom said at the time. ”We are suing to stop this latest illegal action by a President who is a wholly-owned subsidiary of big polluters.”

California is also mulling funding the $7,500 tax credit for EV vehicles as a way to maintain its zero emissions market.

Meanwhile, a Sept. 9 analysis by EY (previously Ernst & Young) predicts that EV sales in the United States will slow down because of the end of incentives, legislative uncertainty, and new import tariffs.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 13:25

Invest Or Index – Exploring 5-Different Strategies

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Invest Or Index – Exploring 5-Different Strategies

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Investing is about choices. Every investor faces the same challenge: how to grow wealth while controlling risk. Over the years, distinct approaches have proven effective, though none guarantee success. Some strategies require patience. Others demand discipline in timing and execution. A few provide stability and income. There is no right or wrong way to invest, and every strategy has pros and cons. In some cycles, one approach will outperform another. That doesn’t mean a strategy is broken; it just means it is out of favor in the current environment. The problem that investors often face is that they abandon an underperforming strategy to chase another, often at precisely the wrong time.

The cycle rotation on investment strategies was discussed in detail in Why Investing Is Like Gardening:

“Like everything in life, there is a “season” and a “cycle.” When it comes to the markets, “seasons” are dictated by the “technical and economic constructs,” and the “cycles” are dictated by “valuations.” The seasons are shown in the chart below.”

With this in mind, we will examine five major investment strategies: value, growth, momentum, dividend, and index investing. Each comes with strengths and weaknesses. More importantly, each offers lessons from history’s greatest investors, including Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. By exploring these strategies, you can better align your portfolio with your financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.

1. Value Investing

Value investing focuses on buying stocks trading below their intrinsic value. Benjamin Graham, often called the father of value investing, defined the approach in Security Analysis (1934) and later The Intelligent Investor. Graham wrote: “An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

Value investing emphasizes fundamentals—strong balance sheets, healthy cash flow, and low debt. The strategy assumes markets misprice securities in the short run, but eventually, fundamentals assert themselves. Graham explained this with his famous line: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

“Why do quality stocks outperform over the long run? The below graph is pretty clear, although recent years could question the conclusions drawn from it: does high-quality always outperform lower-quality? Market euphoria, quantitative easing et cetera oftentimes lead to temporary deviations from this general trend.” – The Compounding Tortoise

Warren Buffett, Graham’s most famous student, captured the essence of value investing in fewer words: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” He also stressed the importance of discipline through the idea of a margin of safety. By buying below the intrinsic value, investors protect themselves if the company underperforms or the market takes longer to recognize value.

Tactics for Value Investors

  • Screen for companies with low price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios.

  • Favor firms with consistent free cash flow and limited debt.

  • Require a margin of safety before buying.

  • Diversify across sectors to avoid concentration risk.

  • Exercise patience. Recognition of value often takes years.

Value investing works best for investors willing to wait for fundamentals to assert themselves. It is not exciting, but it has delivered reliable long-term returns.

2. Growth Investing

Growth investing takes the opposite view. Instead of focusing on undervaluation, it targets companies expected to expand faster than the market. Technology, healthcare, and other innovation-driven sectors dominate this space. These companies often reinvest earnings into expansion rather than pay dividends, prioritizing growth over immediate income.

The attraction is clear: owning the next Amazon, Apple, or Nvidia before the market fully appreciates its potential can generate outsized returns. But growth investing carries risks. Paying high multiples for future earnings leaves no margin for error. If growth slows or expectations are missed, share prices fall quickly.

As noted above, growth investing works during economic expansion cycles. However, in late-cycle and pre-recessionary periods, the risks of being solely allocated to growth investing can be detrimental.

Buffett once said: “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” This statement captures both value and growth perspectives. Growth matters, but only when tied to quality and reasonable valuation.

Tactics for Growth Investors

  • Target companies with sustained revenue growth above the market average.
  • Use metrics like price-to-sales and price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) to avoid overpaying.
  • Dollar-cost average into volatile names to manage timing risk.
  • Limit allocation. Growth should complement a portfolio, not dominate it.
  • Be prepared for volatility and trim exposure when valuations stretch.

Growth investing suits investors with longer time horizons and higher risk tolerance. The rewards can be significant, but discipline is essential.

3. Momentum Investing

Momentum investing rests on a simple premise: stocks that are rising tend to keep rising, while those falling tend to keep falling. Investors identify strong trends and ride them until they weaken. This strategy relies heavily on technical analysis and often involves short holding periods.

Momentum thrives in bull markets. Herd behavior pushes winners higher, creating self-reinforcing trends. But the risks are significant. Trends can reverse quickly. Benjamin Graham warned: “The more you trade, the more you are likely to lose.” Frequent trading increases costs and exposes investors to sharp reversals when sentiment shifts.

We discussed the concept in more detail in “Momentum Investing:”

“The chart shows the difference in the performance of the “value vs. growth” index. (Fidelity Value Fund vs S&P 500 Index).

Notable are the periods when “value investing” outperforms.

While it may seem like the current bull market will never end, abandoning decades of investment history would be unwise. As Howard Marks once stated:

“Rule No. 1: Most things will prove to be cyclical.

Rule No. 2: Some of the most exceptional opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget Rule No. 1.”

Momentum is not about fundamentals. It is about psychology and timing. That makes it risky for most investors.

Tactics for Momentum Investors

  • Use strict stop-loss orders to protect capital.
  • Limit position size and portfolio exposure.
  • Focus on liquidity. Stick to names where you can exit quickly.
  • Be disciplined about exits. Do not wait for confirmation once momentum fades.
  • Treat momentum as tactical, not core.

Momentum requires constant monitoring and emotional discipline. It is not for casual investors, but it can be effective for those willing to stay vigilant.

4. Dividend Investing

Dividend investing focuses on stability and income. Investors buy companies with reliable dividend payments and strong balance sheets. This approach appeals to retirees and others who prioritize cash flow over growth. The benefit of dividend investing is that the provision of consistent income reduces reliance on capital gains. They also offer a compounding advantage when reinvested. Over time, reinvested dividends significantly increase portfolio value.

“Dividends have played a significant role in the returns investors have received during the last several decades. Going back to 1960, 85% of the cumulative total return of the S&P 500 Index can be attributed to reinvested dividends and the power of compounding.” – Hartford Funds

Dividend stocks tend to be less volatile than growth names. Companies that pay dividends often have mature businesses and steady earnings. But this stability comes with trade-offs. High-dividend companies may reinvest less in expansion, limiting growth. Dividend stocks are also sensitive to interest rate changes, as higher bond yields can make them less attractive.

Tactics for Dividend Investors

  • Seek companies with long records of raising dividends.
  • Avoid chasing yield. High yields may signal financial distress.
  • Diversify across industries such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare.
  • Reinvest dividends during accumulation years.
  • Transition to income withdrawals during retirement.

Dividend investing provides both income and resilience. It works best for investors seeking stability and compounding power.

5. Index Investing

Index investing is simple. Buy a portfolio that mirrors a benchmark, such as the S&P 500, and hold it. This passive approach minimizes costs and provides broad diversification.

Buffett has long recommended index funds for most investors. In his 2013 annual letter to shareholders, he wrote: “My advice to the trustee could not be simpler: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.” His reasoning is straightforward; most active managers underperform the market after fees.

Index investing reduces the need for constant decision-making. It captures market returns without trying to predict winners. But it also has drawbacks. Index funds hold every stock in the benchmark, including poor performers. They will not outperform the market, because they are the market.

Tactics for Index Investors

  • Use low-cost funds to minimize expense drag.
  • Make index funds the foundation of your portfolio.
  • Rebalance annually to maintain allocation.
  • Combine with active strategies if you want additional exposure.
  • Stay invested. The biggest risk with index investing is abandoning the strategy during downturns.

Index investing suits those seeking long-term consistency without the complexity of stock selection.

Final Thoughts

Each strategy offers lessons. Value emphasizes patience and fundamentals. Growth rewards innovation but demands valuation discipline. Momentum takes advantage of market psychology but carries high risk. Dividends provide stability and compounding. Index investing delivers simplicity and cost efficiency.

Benjamin Graham warned against speculation disguised as investing: “The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” Warren Buffett added his own guardrail: “Know your circle of competence, and stick within it. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”

In practice, the best approach often blends elements of each. Index funds can form a low-cost core. Value and dividend strategies add resilience. Growth provides upside. Momentum, if used carefully, offers tactical opportunities. Success lies not in chasing the latest idea, but in consistency through cycles.

Markets will always be volatile. Strategies will fall in and out of favor. What matters most is discipline. The investor who remains patient, diversified, and focused on long-term goals will outperform those who chase trends or panic during downturns.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 13:05

President Trump Calls To End Quarterly Financial Reporting, Suggesting Semiannual Schedule Instead

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President Trump Calls To End Quarterly Financial Reporting, Suggesting Semiannual Schedule Instead

President Donald Trump suggested Monday on Truth Social that companies should stop filing quarterly earnings reports and instead move to a semiannual schedule. Trump’s call to replace quarterly earnings reports with semiannual filings revives a debate that also surfaced during his first term.

In his post, Trump said the idea is “subject to SEC approval” and would “save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.” He added: “Did you ever hear the statement that, ‘China has a 50 to 100 year view on management of a company, whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis??? Not good!!!’”

The concept has long divided business leaders and regulators. In 2018, Warren Buffett and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon argued against quarterly guidance, writing: “In our experience, quarterly earnings guidance often leads to an unhealthy focus on short-term profits at the expense of long-term strategy, growth and sustainability.”

But others warn that reducing reporting could weaken transparency. “Trying to get companies less hyper focused on the short-term quarterly hamster wheel would be good, but it’s far from clear that reducing investor disclosure to semi-annual reporting would do that,” Dennis Kelleher, CEO of advocacy group Better Markets, told Axios. “The real solution would be getting Boards of Directors to incentivize and then support corporate executives to focus more on the long term and less on the short term.”

TD Cowen, in a note Monday, said Trump’s comments could carry weight: given his push to roll back regulations, the post moves the idea “from improbable to probable though not guaranteed,” according to Axios.

“In speaking with some of the world’s top business leaders I asked what it is that would make business (jobs) even better in the U.S. ‘Stop quarterly reporting & go to a six month system,’ said one. That would allow greater flexibility & save money. I have asked the SEC to study!” Trump said in a post on X during his first term in 2018.

Currently, U.S. companies must file quarterly reports, though forecasts remain voluntary. Proponents say frequent reports give investors timely, reliable insights, with GAAP standards ensuring consistency. Critics, however, argue that short-term pressure hampers long-range planning.

Despite Trump’s comparison to China, firms there are required to file quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports. Hong Kong-listed companies report every six months, similar to rules in the U.K. and EU, where quarterly updates are optional. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund recently proposed semiannual reporting as well, citing the need for companies to prioritize long-term growth.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 12:45

The Fed Models Were Wrong About The US Economy

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The Fed Models Were Wrong About The US Economy

Authored by Daniel Lacelle,

In 2025, the mainstream Keynesian narrative that the United States would inevitably experience a recession and stagflation has proven to be utterly incorrect.

The American economy is performing much better than its comparable nations, is showing broad-based strength, and even has indications of accelerating growth, giving investors and consumers plenty of reason to feel more optimistic, despite the consensus estimates from earlier in the year.

The consensus was wrong.

The United States economy is outperforming the economies of the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and the entire euro area, showing estimates of economic growth that exceed those of the best-performing developed nations, along with significantly lower unemployment rates and solid real wage growth.

Due to exaggerated expectations of the impact of factors like new tariffs, global uncertainty, and the potential for persistently high inflation, most mainstream analysts and market commentators projected a stagnant or recessionary environment for the US in 2025, while hailing the euro area as the place to invest. We have seen the opposite.

US bond yields are falling, while euro area sovereign yields are rising despite ECB rate cuts. Additionally, GDP growth estimates for the euro area are weak, and US economic growth is stronger than the European Union’s “engines of growth,” whereas Japan and the UK remain stagnant. Inflation is under control, real wage growth is strong, and the private sector is improving.

The mainstream consensus predictions were biased and incorrect. Rather, the US economy has reported strong real GDP growth: following a short contraction in Q1, growth in the second quarter bounced back to 3–3.3% annually, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently projects Q3 growth at a stable 3% pace. In addition to consumer spending and imports, business investment also contributed to this GDP strength, and, more importantly, it came with government spending under control.

The most recent CPI and PPI data dispel concerns that the tariff regime is causing inflation. CPI and core measures in August came in close to or below expectations, indicating that headline monthly inflation and producer price increases are still under control. Prices for durable and nondurable goods are still stable, and, despite negative forecasts, tariffs have not generated a significant increase in the cost of living for Americans; instead, energy and important imports have either decreased or stabilised.

Despite recent revisions, the private-sector labor market maintained momentum from January through August. The significant negative revisions occurred during the January-December 2024 period, indicating that the Biden administration’s job creation was only half of what was reported and required a two million downward adjustment to the job figures from 2023 to 2024. What the Bureau of Labour Statistics has shown clearly is that the United States was in a private sector recession in 2024, which justified the negative sentiment from citizens.

Private payrolls have reported consistent net gains, particularly in the important service and construction segments, despite slight revisions to previous months. Even more encouraging is the fact that real wage growth is accelerating rather than merely keeping up with inflation. Real average hourly earnings increased by 1.2%, and real weekly earnings increased by 1.4% between July 2024 and July 2025. Increased purchasing power is boosting middle-class disposable income and driving retail demand because wage gains are outpacing price growth.

Retail sales also remain resilient in the face of market volatility and trade uncertainty. Bloomberg predicts that headline retail sales will increase by 0.2% in August, while the core control group will increase by 0.3%. This increase is significantly better than what April estimates showed, particularly since consumer sentiment is still cautious but generally stable. Throughout the third quarter, household consumption is increasing due to strong private labor markets and healthy wage growth.

The growing agreement that inflation risks are under control represents the most significant development for financial markets, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to finally recognise reality and cut interest rates in the coming months. Markets are beginning to anticipate that the Fed will soon lower interest rates, which could further boost borrowing, investment, and the economy’s momentum for the rest of 2025.

Despite the pessimistic predictions of recession and stagflation, they have proven to be undeniably wrong. The US economy is in a period of true private sector expansion, thanks to strong job and wage growth, favourable taxation, and deregulation, whereas tariffs are having no real impact on inflation. Now the Fed needs to be truly data dependent. Putting aside the pessimism of the previous year, the data currently indicates an improving outlook and a recovery from the private sector recession and fiscal mess inherited in 2024.

The Fed models were wrong about inflation and used labor market figures that were hugely inflated. The Fed should have read its own Beige Book, which alerted of a marked slowdown in job creation in March and April, instead of succumbing to the biased consensus narrative.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 12:25

Kash Patel Confirms DNA Evidence Match In Kirk Assassination, Reveals Details Of Note

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Kash Patel Confirms DNA Evidence Match In Kirk Assassination, Reveals Details Of Note

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

DNA evidence matching that of Charlie Kirk’s suspected killer was found at the crime scene, FBI Director Kash Patel said on Monday.

A police mugshot of Tyler Robinson, the suspect in the fatal shooting of U.S. conservative commentator Charlie Kirk during an event at Utah Valley University, in Orem, Utah, in this photo released by the Utah Department of Public Safety on Sept. 12, 2025. Utah Department of Public Safety/Handout via Reuters

Tyler Robinson, the suspect arrested for the Sept. 10 assassination of the conservative Christian influencer at Utah Valley University, also left a note indicating that he expressed that he had an opportunity to kill Kirk, Patel said.

In a Sept. 15 interview with Fox News, Patel said, “I can report today that the DNA hits from the towel that was wrapped around the firearm and the DNA on the screwdriver are positively processed for the suspect in custody.

Patel also referred to reports of an alleged note left behind by Robinson, saying that the suspect wrote that he had the “opportunity to take out” Kirk and wrote, “I’m going to take it.” That message was written before the Sept. 10 shooting, he added.

Patel said that it was both a “note” and a “text message exchange,“ adding that it was ”destroyed“ but that investigators recovered it. Other evidence in the case, Patel said, was ”shocking,” although he didn’t go into more detail.

Touching on a possible ideologically based motive, Patel said that Robinson’s family said that he “subscribed to left-wing ideology,” echoing a statement made by Utah Gov. Spencer Cox during several Sunday interviews about the suspect’s viewpoints.

Cox confirmed that Robinson was in a “romantic relationship” with a transgender individual who was also his roommate. That individual is cooperating with federal officials, although Robinson is not, Cox has said.

“Friends have confirmed that there was kind of that deep, dark internet, the Reddit culture, and these other dark places of the internet where this person was going deep,” the governor said.

And he added that his “roommate was a romantic partner, a male transitioning to female.”

“I can say that he has been incredibly cooperative, this partner has been very cooperative, had no idea that this was happening,” Cox said.

This past week, Cox also said that the suspected killer engraved messages containing anti-fascist viewpoints on bullets that were recovered by authorities. Court records and Cox said that one bullet casing had the message, “Hey, fascist! Catch!”

The update comes as the Utah County Sheriff’s Office confirmed to The Epoch Times on Sunday that Robinson was moved to a “special watch” area in the jail facility, adding that there is no evidence to suggest that he wants to kill himself.

Kirk founded Turning Point USA in 2012 to bring more young, conservative evangelical Christians into politics as effective influencers, and he was a confidant of President Donald Trump. Nationwide, vigils were held, including one Sunday night at the Kennedy Center in Washington.

Kirk, a 31-year-old father of two, became prominent in part through his campus speaking tours. He was shot on Wednesday while answering a question at the college in Orem, Utah.

Speakers at the Kennedy Center included White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, two House members whose remembrances of Kirk were briefly stalled when they teared up, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., House Speaker Mike Johnson, and White House adviser Stephen Miller.

I had a conversation once with Charlie. We were talking about the danger that we were both challenging entrenched interests, and he asked if I was scared of dying. And I said, ‘There’s a lot worse things than dying,’” Kennedy said.

With Kirk’s death, Kennedy said that “it’s our job” to “win this battle for our country.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

*  *  *

These are amazing, organic, and help you poop if you eat 2 bags in an afternoon according to a friend and definitely not me.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 11:45

Watch: Drone Erupts Over Israel’s Southern Airport, Now Under Repeat Attack

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Watch: Drone Erupts Over Israel’s Southern Airport, Now Under Repeat Attack

This weekend saw a lot of drone action out of Yemen against Israel. This included Houthi military leadership claiming that three drones struck Ramon Airport in the southern city of Eilat, while a fourth allegedly hit a military installation in the Negev region.

The Houthis claimed all drones successfully reached their targets, but dramatic footage was published from Israel of the inbound drone attack, with at least one being blown up during a daytime raid – perhaps contradicting the Houthi claims. For example, below is the moment a Houthi drone erupts over near Ramon Airport.

Israeli media indicated that sirens were activated in the nearby town of Be’er Ora following the launch of an interceptor missile by the Iron Dome system, which successfully destroyed the large UAV, still leaving concerns over falling debris.

Israeli leadership did not acknowledge any destructive drone impact at Ramon. This is unlike last week, where there was clear damage left at the southern airport, after at least one drone made it past Israel’s anti-air defenses.

The airport has since opened up after making repairs, only to see itself once again come under Houthi assault. An elderly man had been injured in that prior attack.

Israel’s YNet on Sunday reported that “four days after the strike on Ramon Airport and less than 24 hours after the Israeli military bombed Houthi targets in Yemen, the rebels are continuing to launch drones toward Israel.”

Last Wednesday say another IDF retaliatory attack on Yemen, which it said were Houthi military camps where operatives were gathered, as well as a strike the headquarters of the terror group’s propaganda division, and a fuel depot. Scores were reported injured and killed in this latest aerial raid.

Meanwhile, Al Jazeera points out that last week Israel attacked six countries, among them Qatar (targeting the Hamas leaders in Doha) – which is a first. 

“The attack was part of a wider wave of Israeli strikes extending beyond its immediate borders, and marked the sixth country attacked in just 72 hours and the seventh since the start of this year,” the publication writes.

This included strikes on Lebanon and Syria as well, at a moment Washington is pressuring the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. But so long as the Israeli strikes on south Lebanon continue, Hezbollah says it is not gong to disarm. The Houthis are also refusing to relent in their Gaza-related aggression on Israel and in the Red Sea.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 09:25

Was The Current Madness Birthed In The University?

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Was The Current Madness Birthed In The University?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

America is currently sick.

The young conservative organizer and media personality Charlie Kirk was just murdered in a political assassination by a 22-year-old ‘anti-fascist’ and trans advocate, Tyler Robinson. As planned, he eliminated the most astute and successful political activist in a generation. Indeed, Kirk may well have ensured that Donald Trump won the 2024 election by not just increasing his youth vote by 6 percent since 2020 but, more importantly, by margins in the swing states of 15-24 percent, ensuring Trump’s victory.

No sooner was he killed than thousands on left-wing social media erupted in celebration—among them scores of teachers and professors. Their venom was eerily reminiscent of their earlier canonization of left-wing murderer Luigi Mangione. Recall, Mangione was the spoiled nepo baby who lethally ambushed UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Thereby, he became an icon to the Left as a social justice warrior fighting the evil capitalist system, which had so enriched himself and his own family.

Such utter moral bankruptcy was on display as well by the social media praise of Palestinian activist Elias Rodriguez (“Free Palestine”), after he brutally murdered a young Jewish couple at the Jewish museum in Washington, D.C. Rodriguez supposedly showed the world how to deal with Zionists—reifying the hateful rhetoric that pervades the modern campus.

Was that ghoulishness confined to such anonymous left-wing nuts and fringe trolls?

Not really.

MSNBC’s guest “analyst,” Matthew Dowd, casually raised an asinine suggestion that the lethal shot came from a Kirk supporter firing off a round. And then, in Pavlovian fashion, he blamed the assassination of Kirk—on Kirk himself—for being an unapologetic “divisive” activist.

Dowd, who was subsequently fired by an embarrassed MSNBC president, only took his cue from anchorwoman, the untouchable Katy Tur, who first editorialized Kirk as a “divisive” figure. By her logic, would that mean that, say, a Bernie Sanders or Zohran Mamdani would also be divisive? What does Joe Biden, by Tur’s logic, deserve after labeling half the country as “semi-fascists” or reducing them to “garbage,” “chumps,” and “dregs”—or boasting he’d like to take Trump behind the gym and beat him up?

Does Tur mean that anyone deemed “divisive” then should naturally expect what befell Charlie Kirk?

Yet, in truth, Charlie Kirk was an upbeat, happy warrior not unlike William F. Buckley in his youth, willing to politely debate political opponents without anger and bias.

The multimillionaire socialist Rep. Ilhan Omar, who once claimed that the Trump “dictatorship” was worse than what she had fled from in her native Somalia, claimed the slain Kirk mourners were “full of sh-t” in a long, incoherent rant. Such creepy examples could be easily multiplied, such as the accustomed lunacy of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She now claimed that those who block gun control legislation could not blame others for inciting the violence: i.e., Charlie Kirk should have expected to reap what he sowed.

A dense AOC seems clueless that not even her fellow leftists seriously advocate confiscating bolt-action .30-06 hunting rifles of the sort that the assassin used to kill Kirk. Perhaps it might be wiser not to try to hunt down and round up 500 million guns in America, but rather to enforce existing unenforced gun laws that prohibit felons, the mentally ill, and domestic terrorists (“anti-fascists”) from possessing them.

Just prior to the murder of Charlie Kirk, a video had been issued of a 23-year-old Ukrainian immigrant, Iryna Zarutska, brutally murdered on public transit in Charlotte, North Carolina. Her throat was slashed by one Decarlos Brown, an African-American, 14-time felon, recently and prematurely released from custody.

The horror followed the now familiar left-wing script. The left-wing mayor, Vi Lyles, immediately tried to stop the release of the transit video, lest it cause anyone or anything to be blamed. Then she followed with the usual DEI boilerplate that excuses evil: do not judge the homeless, arresting people solves nothing, and the murder was merely “tragic,” as if there is no culpability, just bad luck or fate.

As expected, most of the media suffocated the murder story. After all, it upset the dominant racial narrative that must remain unquestioned. We have been told for decades that systemically racist Americans prey on victimized blacks, and thus, Ibram X. Kendi-style antiracism—de facto stigmatizing and demonizing whites—is needed to stop racism.

The left knows that black males, age 15-40, commit well over 50 percent of the most violent crimes in America, while comprising about 3 percent of the population. They know it and privately navigate accordingly, but few speak of it, and none seem to have answers to it. So the topic remains taboo.

Any “tragedy” that highlights that fact—such as the murder of Ms. Zarutska or the recent brutal strangling of Auburn retired professor Julie Schnuelle by a young black man with a felony record who was released back into the public—must be suppressed. So too we rarely hear of the recent murder of the elderly Queens couple by the alleged career felon and released criminal Jamel McGriff. He robbed them, he tied them up, he murdered them, and then he torched their home. And on and on the crime continues, the narrative continues, and we dare not say a word.

In our post-Daniel Penny world, three young black people, sitting just feet away from Zarutska, witnessed Decarlos Brown slit her throat—and did nothing. Perhaps they were afraid, we were told. Perhaps, we were advised, no first aid could have staunched such horrific wounds. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps…

Nonetheless, when Zarutska was staring out at eternity in her death throes, bewildered that someone or something had just ended her life, none of the three lifted a finger to help her—or even console her in her final moments. Instead, the killer, blood dripping from his person, calmly walked off the train unmolested. And even then, in his absence, there was no effort of any of the nearby witnesses to tend to the dying Zarutska. Instead, they sidestepped her and left her behind on the train as she lay gasping her last breaths.

The killer, Decarlos Brown? He can be heard on the video mumbling twice, “I got that white girl.” Yet we were told either that the video was doctored, or too unclear, or irrelevant. If accurate, it demolished the media elite’s insistence that Decarlos Brown had not a racial thought in his mind.

Instead, we were to listen to media analyst Van Jones pontificate that the late Charlie Kirk should have been ashamed for connecting Decarlos Brown to racist hatred. Perhaps Van Jones should reconsider. He should review the entire narrative of how Zarutska found herself a target of a killer. Brown was a 14-time felon. He was out on cashless bail. The magistrate Teresa Stokes, who freed him, had no law degree. Such a “judge” had never taken, much less passed, a bar exam.

She owned an out-of-state alternative treatment center and was involved in another local one. In a prior sane world, magistrates had law degrees. They had been certified as competent by the bar exams. They followed conflict-of-interest protocols that prohibited them from even indirectly profiting from their judicial decisions.

But again, that narrative too is passé, given the power of diversity, equity, and inclusion to exempt norms and protocols for the supposed greater collective good.

From where does all this hatred, violence, and moral vacuity arise? Why did the shooter inscribe his bullets with “anti-fascist” messaging, cruel taunts, and trans jargon?

Is the hatred caused by the media, who talk about toxic “whiteness” nonstop? Is it the collateral damage from the racial obsessions of a Jasmine Crockett, Joy Reid, and septuagenarian Al Sharpton, now ending his racialist career where he started it?

Or is the promulgator the Democratic Party and the Left, out of power, impotent, and angry that their superior intelligence and morality are not properly appreciated by 51 percent of the people? Who put a photoshopped Trump on a New Republic cover as Hitler?

If a General Milley (“now I realize he’s a total fascist”) or a General Kelly (“certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure”) calls a current or ex-president a fascist, and presidential candidate Kamala Harris agrees (“a president…who admires dictators and is a fascist”), then does an unhinged 22-year-old “anti-fascist” college student feel the popular culture might approve of his own efforts in dealing with “fascist” Trump supporters?

Milley, Kelly, Harris, and the rest can call anyone a fascist but without ever defining the term.

Did Trump suspend immigration law to let in 12 million illegals? Did he invite into the DOJ or White House the prosecutors Nathan Wade, Jack Smith, and the revolving door Michael Colangelo to coordinate lawfare against an ex-president?

Is Trump ignoring the improper usurpation of executive power by left-wing lower-court judges or instead appealing their decisions through lawful channels?

Did he hire a foreign national to undermine his presidential rival with a fake dossier?

Did he round up “51 former intelligence officials” to lie to the American people to warp the election?

Did he pardon his entire criminally minded family and then cover it up by in absentia outsourcing to his aides the pardoning of hundreds of criminals through an autopen? So please define fascism before smearing a president and lowering the bar of the acceptable.

What is the point of the past violent braggadocio of Hakeem Jeffries, the House Minority Leader, posing with a baseball bat, or huffing that he will take the “fight” against the Trump agenda “to the streets?” Was he merely following on the earlier example of Rep. Maxine Waters, who urged supporters to whip up a crowd and physically confront Trump officials in stores and restaurants?

Why are congresswomen kickboxing and punching the screen as they video their seriousness to assault Trump?

What does now-campaigning California Governor Gavin Newsom mean when he promises, “It’s not about whether we play hardball anymore—it’s about how we play hardball. We are going to fight back, and we’re going to punch this bully in the mouth.” What would a potential third assassin think of that promise?

If the governor of the largest state in the union wants to bloody the face of the President of the United States or physically attack his opponents (“We’re gonna punch these sons of b‑‑‑‑es in the mouth”), then might lesser underlings and sympathizers try to outdo that?

Or, finally, is the culprit for the madness found ultimately in the elite university? Who, after all, mainstreamed the idea of racial re-segregation in dorms and graduation ceremonies and taught America that racial essentialism is part of the new tribal America?

Who ignored court rulings and civil rights legislation in their arrogance to recalibrate admissions by race? Who taught the anti-Jewish assassin Elias Rodriguez his hatred of Israel and his pro-Hamas zealotry, and who influenced Luigi Mangione, an honors graduate, to despise “capitalist” CEOs?

Where did the practice of identifying one’s pronouns at the end of memos start, or demanding that biological males could compete in women’s sports, and demonizing anyone who objected that there were still two, not three, biological sexes?

Where did the critical race theory and critical legal theory that empowered Black Lives Matter, Defund the Police, Cashless Bail, and all the laws that assured the public that thefts less than $950 were not really thefts?

From where did the new anti-Semitism come, and so strangely after the slaughter of October 7—if not from the campus?

Where else in America were young Jews fleeing to a library with the mob pounding on the windows? Where else are Jews roughed up by a thug who is subsequently given an award by their university? Where did demonstrations arise on behalf of those who murdered 1,200 on October 7?

Why, in the aftermath of the murder of Charlie Kirk, are so many teachers, professors, and college-graduate bureaucrats so eager to gloat over and cheer his death? Who taught them that?

Are universities critical to America’s prosperity and security now only in terms of the sciences, math, engineering, and medical schools?

As for the humanities? They scarcely exist at the elite universities as we once knew them. Either de facto or literally, they have been overwhelmed and distorted by endless studies-courses, DEI radicalism, 90 percent leftist faculties, and suppression of free thought and free expression.

Where did the envisioning of violent crime as the fault of a flawed society, the institutionalization of modern racialism, chauvinism, and essentialism, and the empowerment of militant transgenderism that in so many insidious ways has filtered throughout society—if not originally birthed in the university—come from?

Those sins of commission are force-multiplied by those of omission. Hundreds of thousands of students emerge from campuses not just indoctrinated with contempt for the Western tradition and American exceptionalism, and not just often thousands of dollars in debt from inflated tuition, but also poorly educated by the standards that once defined education.

The working classes and high school graduates, supposedly the losers of our society, are not those who are dividing the country. They are not often advocating violence or trying to use any means necessary to overturn the established order. But so often the products of the modern university are doing just that.

Sadly, in all these recent horrors, the ideology behind them—the premise that either birthed or appeased them—was birthed in modern higher education.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 09:00

Futures Rise To New Record High As Musk Trade Sends Tesla Soaring

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Futures Rise To New Record High As Musk Trade Sends Tesla Soaring

Equity futures are at fresh record highs, erasing a modest dip earlier in the session when a probe found that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws in China in a 2020 deal. That killed the mood at the start of a big week, with the Fed expected to make the first of a series of rate cuts, however the mood was promptly lifted again just after 6am ET when Elon Musk bought $1BN in TSLA stock sending the market cap soaring by over $100BN and lifting stocks to new all time highs. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by 0.2%. In premarket trading, Nvidia shares fell as much as 2.9% after China said it violated antitrust regulations after its acquisition of Mellanox. The surprise announcement came as US and Chinese officials headed into a second day of wide-ranging negotiations in Madrid over tariffs. Mag7 names are mixed with AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG up 90bp-108bp; TSLA soared 8% after Musk purchased $1bn of stock, his first open market purchase since February 2020. European stocks advanced in a rally led by luxury shares. US / China trade talks enter a second day today. Commodities are mixed with Energy up and Ags / Metals down. Today’s macro data focus is Empire Mfg ahead of tomorrow’s Retail Sales and Weds’ Fed meeting. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are higher: Tesla (TSLA) surges 7% after Elon Musk purchased about $1 billion worth of Tesla shares on Sept. 12, according to a filing with the US Securities & Exchange Commission. Nvidia (NVDA) slips 1.6% after China ruled that the company violated anti-monopoly laws with its 2020 deal to acquire Mellanox. Other peers are all green (Alphabet +1.2%, Microsoft unch, Apple +1%, Amazon +1.3%, Meta Platforms +0.2%).

  • Auto and industrial chipmakers such as Texas Instruments (TXN) and ON Semiconductor (ON) slip after China launched two investigations targeting the US chip sector as trade talks between the two countries went on in Madrid. Texas Instruments -2%, ON Semiconductor -2%
  • Corteva Inc. (CTVA) rises 1% after the WSJ reported that the company is considering separating its seed and pesticide businesses into separate companies,
  • Hain Celestial (HAIN) falls 14% after the food company reported net sales for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) falls 2.8% after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said a widely watched TV commercial by the telehealth firm earlier this year breached the agency’s regulations.
  • Smurfit WestRock (SW) shares are up 3.7% after UBS initiates coverage for the packaging company with a buy rating on “significant” organic growth potential.
  • VF Corp. (VFC) gains 3% after agreeing to sell the Dickies brand to brand management firm Bluestar Alliance for $600 million in cash.

Nvidia slipped 2.1% in premarket trading after Chinese regulators said that the chipmaker had violated anti-monopoly laws. Tesla rose nearly 6%. The Nvidia announcement landed as US and Chinese officials entered a second day of trade talks in Madrid, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive negotiations.

“At this moment of the cycle, bad news just doesn’t stick,” said David Kruk, head of trading at La Financiere de l’Echiquier. “We’re about to enter a cycle of rate cuts with strong EPS growth, that’s a really great cocktail.”

The Fed won’t be the only major central bank in focus. Policy decisions from the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan at week’s end will round out a packed calendar for half of the world’s 10 most-traded currencies. The key question this week is whether the Fed will push back against market wagers on a string of cuts extending into next year when officials gather on Wednesday. Traders are almost fully pricing reductions at each of the next three meetings, betting the Fed will lean toward supporting a softening job market even as inflation remains above target. 

Meanwhile, options traders aren’t betting on volatility to resurface this week, even with Friday’s $5 trillion triple-witching expiration looming as well. Instead, the spotlight will also rest on upcoming employment data for hints on how fast and deep the Fed will have to cut. Options markets are pricing in a 0.78% move for the US nonfarm payrolls report Oct. 3 and 0.72% for Wednesday’s Fed rate decision. 

“The week ahead for risk could be a bumpy ride, especially if the Fed deliver a message that lands hawkish,” said Michael Brown, research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “I still see the path of least resistance as leading higher, with economic and earnings growth solid, calmer tones prevailing on trade, and a looser monetary stance helping to juice things along.”

Tesla shares jumped as much as 7.3% in premarket trading. If the gains carry over into the regular trading session, the stock will return to positive territory for 2025, having recovered from a 45% decline as of early April. Musk, 54, last bought Tesla stock in the open market in February 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. He offloaded more than $20 billion of the company’s shares in 2022, the year he acquired Twitter.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up 0.4% with most sub-indexes in the green. Luxury names LVMH and Kering lift the CAC 40, up 0.9%, with French and Italian stocks outperforming peers. Sainsbury shares gained as much as 6.3% after terminating talks to sell its Argos unit, while AstraZeneca shares fell after Handelsbanken cut the stock to hold from buy. Turkish stocks, bonds and lira climb after a key court decision on the opposition party was adjourned.  Here are the biggest movers Monday:

  • Rubis shares jumped as much as 9.6% in Paris trading, to the highest since June 2024, after Bloomberg reported on Friday that CVC Capital Partners and Trafigura are said to be among potential bidders for the French fuel distributor
  • Dassault Aviation gained as much as 4.2% while Saab falls as much as 4.5% after the Times of India newspaper reported the Indian Air Force has proposed buying 114 “Made in India” Rafale fighter jets
  • French equities extended gains, outperforming broader European peers, as investors remained focused on the political outlook. Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s credit rating last week
  • Sainsbury shares rose as much as 6.3%, following a weekend in which the UK supermarket chain said it was in talks with Chinese e-commerce firm JD.com to sell its Argos unit, before terminating discussions a day later
  • Flow Traders advanced as much as 7.4%, the most in seven months, after being upgraded by analysts at Oddo BHF as they raised their EPS estimates and said the trading platform should deliver another good quarter
  • Lundbergforetagen rose as much as 3.4%, the most since April, after Swedish business daily Dagens Industri named the Swedish investment group its stock pick of the week, saying it will be a solid performer in the coming years
  • AO World surged as much as 15% after the electrical retailer upgraded the mid-point of its annual profit guidance and launching its first-ever share buyback
  • AstraZeneca fell as much as 3.9%, the most since Aug. 1, after Handelsbanken cut its recommendation on the drugmaker to hold from buy, noting the bank’s outlook for $76 billion in 2030 sales is lower than the company’s target of $80 billion
  • Orsted fell as much as 7.6%, before paring the losses, after the Danish wind-farm developer announced the hotly-awaited terms for its DKK60 billion ($9.4 billion) rights issue
  • Virbac shares dropped as much as 9.3%, the most in more than five months, after the animal health company reported a decrease in adjusted net income for the first half-year. Analysts also noted the drop in gross margin
  • S4 Capital fell as much as 14%, hitting a record low, after the advertising firm’s first-half revenues fell, margins contracted and it trimmed like-for-like net revenue guidance for the full year

Earlier in the session, Asian equities extend September’s impressive performance as Chinese tech stocks continue pushing higher. The ChiNext index rallies more than 2% on CATL surge and Hang Seng Tech Index jumps more than 1%. Mainland indexes are in the green despite softer Chinese data. Kospi ekes out a modest gain after South Korea scraps capital gains tax plans on stocks. Taiex and ASX 200 indexes nurse small losses. 

In rates, treasuries are mixed as US session gets under way after plying small ranges during Asia session and European morning, keeping yields within a basis point of Friday’s closing levels. Bunds and gilts outperform, with French bonds in focus after Friday’s downgrade by Fitch. US session has few calendar events Monday, ahead of Tuesday’s 20-year bond auction and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy announcement. US 10-year near 4.07% is less than 1bp higher on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 2bp and 2.5bp; French bonds also outperform, unwinding losses that followed the Fitch downgrade. French bonds rise broadly in line with European peers despite Fitch downgrading the country’s credit rating.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edges lower, trading in a narrow range, while sterling outperforms, trading at the highest since July. The pound led major currencies higher against the dollar. The yen strengthens to around 147.40/USD

In commodities, oil prices nudge higher with Brent trading above $67.40 barrel. Gold steady at around $3,641/oz.

The US economic data slate includes September Empire manufacturing at 8:30am New York time. Ahead this week are August retail sales, industrial production and housing starts.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.3%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%,
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%,
  • DAX +0.3%,
  • CAC 40 +0.9%
  • 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.06%
  • VIX +0.4 points at 15.17
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1196.95,
  • euro +0.1% at $1.1746
  • WTI crude +0.3% at $62.88/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Trump said the Fed chair is incompetent and is hurting the housing market, while Trump added that he has three people he likes a lot for Fed Chair.
  • Trump’s administration on Sunday renewed its request to an appeals court to fire Fed Governor Cook.
  • Trump said on Monday he would call a national emergency and federalize Washington, D.C. after Mayor Muriel Bowser said its police would not cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. CNBC
  • Treasury Secretary Bessent was reported on Friday to have interviewed 4 of the 11 Fed Chair candidates, and had interviewed BlackRock’s Rieder, who was said to have climbed the ranks of contenders for the Fed Chair role, according to Bloomberg.
  • OpenAI plans to share 8% of its revenue with Microsoft (MSFT), while it is expected to gain USD 50bln from cutting the revenue share with Microsoft and partners, according to The Information. In relevant news, xAI is cutting staff by about 500 workers with the Co. laying off about a third of its data annotation team.
  • Vaccine advisers for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are expected this week to consider softening or eliminating recommendations for some routine childhood immunizations — which doctors say could significantly depress vaccination rates and trigger more infectious disease outbreaks. Politico
  • US companies reportedly put the brakes on hiring after Trump’s tariffs hit, with industries most exposed to the increased costs due to trade wars launching a wave of job cuts, according to FT.
  • China’s economic growth falls short of expectations in Aug, including retail sales at +3.4% (vs. the Street +3.8% and down from +3.7% in Jul) and industrial production at +5.2% (vs. the Street +5.6% and down from +5.7% in Jul), sparking speculation that the gov’t could expand stimulus going forward. RTRS
  • China said Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws with its 2020 acquisition of networking gear maker Mellanox. Nvidia shares fell premarket (NVDA -2% premkt). BBG
  • Axios reported on Friday that many of the claims were fake regarding the massive spike in jobless claims on Thursday that heightened labor market fears and was “a result of attempted fraudulent unemployment filings in Texas.”
  • South Korea’s top trade envoy, Yeo Han-koo, is heading to the United States on Monday for follow-up tariff negotiations, the trade ministry said, as the countries struggle to overcome obstacles to finalise a trade deal agreed in July. BBG
  • Indian trade negotiators are scheduled to visit the U.S. this week as the two countries try to get their relationship back on track after weeks of heated rhetoric and 50% tariffs on India. WSJ
  • A Russian drone entered Romania’s airspace and was tracked by its air force for nearly an hour before leaving, the country’s defense minister said on Sunday, condemning Moscow’s second breach of Nato territory within a week. FT
  • Gold held near a record and MLIV expects it’ll remain attractive amid potential Fed easing, a weaker dollar, ETF inflows and central bank buying. BBG
  • TSLA +6% in pre… Elon Musk has purchased about $1 billion worth of Tesla shares on Sept. 12, according to a filing with the US Securities & Exchange Commission. The purchases coincided with Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm speaking with Bloomberg News about the merits of a pay package for Musk that could be worth upwards of $1 trillion if the company achieves a series of ambitious milestones linked to market value and performance. BBG

Corporate News

  • Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk purchased about $1 billion worth of the carmaker’s shares, according to a regulatory filing.
  • China ruled that Nvidia Corp. violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations.
  • Orsted A/S plans to sell new shares at a 67% discount as the offshore wind developer works to rebuild investor confidence after a bet on the US market went wrong.
  • Banco Sabadell SA’s chairman called on rival BBVA SA to significantly increase its offer if it wants it to be considered, less than a week after rejecting a $18 billion takeover bid the board said was too low.
  • Swiss lawmakers will on Monday vote on a second attempt to delay new rules for bank capital quality which are set to lift UBS Group AG’s capital requirements by some $3 billion.
  • ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. will pay a A$240 million ($160 million) fine after admitting misconduct across its institutional and retail divisions, the culmination of a months-long investigation by the corporate watchdog into one of the country’s biggest lenders.
  • Singapore’s GIC Pte is in talks to sell its stake in US landlord Yes! Communities Inc. to Brookfield Asset Management in what could be one of the biggest exits for the sovereign wealth fund in years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China made good progress on technical details; Chinese counterparts have an “aggressive ask”; if there is no TikTok agreement, then it will not affect overall relations. Not willing to sacrifice national security.
  • USTR Greer said they are close to resolving the TikTok issue with China. Wants a good relationship to be maintained with China.
  • US President Trump posted on Truth Social that “When Foreign Companies who are building extremely complex products, machines, and various other “things,” come into the United States with massive Investments, I want them to bring their people of expertise for a period of time to teach and train our people how to make these very unique and complex products, as they phase out of our Country, and back into their land.”
  • US President Trump said China is paying a lot in tariffs and talks with China in Spain are going well, while he also commented that they are still negotiating on TikTok and may let it die, but it depends on China.
  • China’s Commerce Ministry said it is to immediately open an antidumping investigation into certain US analogue chips and began an anti-discrimination investigation into US measures against China in the integrated circuit sector.
  • US Treasury said talks with China regarding TikTok and trade began in Madrid on Sunday, while talks will resume today.
  • Wall Street executives working on the TikTok deal said President Trump will announce another operating extension this week as the last one concludes on September 17th, although this could change, while the fate of the app is tied to the US-China trade talks and China is using it for leverage, according to Fox’s Gasparino who cited sources that noted it is easier for Trump to just extend the deadline and continue with negotiations.
  • US official said the Chinese delegation came into the talks in Madrid with a fundamental misunderstanding of the US’ position regarding TikTok.
  • The lack of progress in US talks with China on tariffs and fentanyl is said to have reduced the chances of a Beijing summit, and it is more likely that a Trump-Xi meeting will be a lower-profile event at the APEC forum in South Korea during October, according to FT. Furthermore, it was noted that China had made a formal invitation to President Trump for a state visit to Beijing, but the White House has yet to respond amid difficulties in making headway on trade and fentanyl.
  • US added 32 entities to the restricted trade list on Friday, including 23 from China, while other entities added to the list were based in countries including India, Iran, Turkey and the UAE, according to the Federal Register.
  • South Korea’s Finance Ministry declined to confirm specific measures currently in discussion regarding an FX swap with the US, while it is in talks with the US to minimise any impact on the FX market from the US investment package. In relevant news, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said US Deputy Secretary of State Landau expressed regret over the recent immigration raid on South Korean workers.
  • Indian trade official said the next round of India-EU trade talks is scheduled for 6-10 October in Brussels.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with the region somewhat cautious ahead of this week’s flurry of central bank updates and as participants digested disappointing Chinese activity data, while Japanese participants were away for a holiday. ASX 200 marginally declined amid weakness in the healthcare, mining and financial sectors, in which the latter was pressured by losses in Big 4 bank ANZ after it admitted to widespread misconduct related to incorrectly reporting bond trading data and agreed to pay AUD 240mln in penalties. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with the Hong Kong benchmark lifted by tech strength after China announced an antidumping investigation into certain US analogue chips and began an anti-discrimination investigation into US measures against China in the integrated circuit sector, while US and Chinese officials also began talks on TikTok and trade in Madrid on Sunday. Nonetheless, the gains were limited as participants also digested disappointing activity data.

Top Asian News

  • China’s stats bureau said the economic operation was generally steady in August and they are facing many uncertainties, while it was noted that the external environment is very severe and uncertainties are rising, and some firms are having difficulties in operations. NBS said China will expand domestic demand and boost consumption and promote a rebound in prices, as well as stated that employment is generally steady with jobless rates expected to ease as college graduates find jobs. It also stated that China will further stabilise the economy and stabilise employment, and that more efforts are needed to support the property sector, but expects Q3 economic operations to maintain a stable trend as macro policies gain traction.
  • China MIIT aims for vehicle sales to rise around 3% Y/Y to about 32.3mln this year, while it was also reported that Hong Kong is in talks with several Chinese EV makers to establish local EV manufacturing.
  • South Korea’s Foreign Minister will visit China from September 17th to 18th and will discuss plans including Chinese President Xi’s visit to South Korea in October.
  • Australian Foreign Minister Wong said Australia and China will hold high-level talks in Beijing this week.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are broadly firmer across the board, in contrast to an overall mixed session in APAC trade. Price action this morning was initially only upward, however, while benchmarks are still firmly in the green, they waned from best in tandem to the general pullback seen on the China-NVIDIA update. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only a couple of sectors residing in negative territory. Consumer Products takes the top spot, largely boosted by gains in Luxury names following the disappointing Chinese Activity Data, which has increased calls for the country to implement further fiscal stimulus. Financial Services is found in second spot; UBS (+1.3%) gains following reports via the NY Post which reported that the Co. could move to the US as it seeks to avoid new capital requirements in Switzerland.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Kazimir said they must not change policy because of small deviations from the inflation target. Monetary policy must remain nimble, need to take a meeting-by-meeting approach.
  • UK Chancellor Reeves plans to scrap VAT on energy to lower bills and told cabinet members that ‘all options were on the table’ for a budget giveaway to ease the cost of living, according to The Sunday Times.
  • UK government announced over GBP 1.25bln of inward investment from US finance companies which will create 1,800 UK jobs, while the deal lines up GBP 20bln in trade between the two countries, including an expected GBP 7bln commitment from BlackRock (BLK) to grow in the UK.
  • UK government announced over GBP 1.1bln in joint government and industry investment for the maritime sector.
  • ECB’s Kocher said the rate-cutting cycle is either over or very close to the end, and the central bank can keep its interest rates steady at 2% for the time being, provided there are no major shocks, according to FT.
  • Exit polls from the election in Germany’s bellwether state of North Rhine-Westphalia showed German Chancellor Merz’s Christian Democrats won with 34% of the votes, although support for the far-right AfD tripled with 16.5% of the votes, according to The Guardian.
  • Italy’s Economy Minister said the government is to confirm its GDP growth estimates in the upcoming Budget plan, while he added that the Italian banking sector must consolidate to face challenges posed by giants such as Amazon and others that will compete for their market share.
  • Fitch cut France’s sovereign rating from AA- to A+; Outlook Revised to Stable from Negative, and raised Portugal’s sovereign rating from A- to A: Outlook Revised to Stable from Positive, while S&P raised Spain’s sovereign rating from A to A+; Outlook Stable.
  • German Economy Ministry said Germany must expand grids, renewable energies and decentralized flexibility at the same time; must maintain and expand unified and liquid energy markets. Must support hydrogen ramp-up pragmatically and cut back over-complex regulation. Fixed feed-in tariffs for new renewable energy installations will be abolished.

FX

  • DXY is choppy with a negative bias and within a tight range, with weekend macro newsflow somewhat overlooked as traders zeroing in on the FOMC policy announcement due mid-week – with a 25bps cut priced in a 95% and a 50bps at 5%, and with ~70bps of cuts priced in through to year-end. Sticking with the Fed, weekend reports suggested that documents showed Fed Governor Cook declared her Atlanta property as a vacation home in documents, indicating it would not be her primary residence, which contradicts mortgage fraud allegations. DXY resides in a narrow 97.497-97.702 range.
  • EUR is underpinned by mild USD weakness with no obvious reaction seen on Fitch cutting France’s sovereign rating from AA- to A+, with the outlook revised to Stable from Negative. In Germany, exit polls from the election in the bellwether state of North Rhine-Westphalia showed Chancellor Merz’s Christian Democrats won with 34% of the votes. Ahead, EUR focus could be on commentary from ECB’s Schnabel at 12:30 BST/ 07:30 ET. EUR/USD resides in a 1.1716-1.1751 range at the time of writing
  • USD/JPY is subdued against the backdrop of a fragile USD this morning, whilst overnight, there was an absence of Japanese participants due to Respect for the Aged Day. Political uncertainty lingered ahead of the LDP election on October 4th – it was reported that Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi will announce on Tuesday his intention to run in the leadership race. USD/JPY remains heavy with reports this morning suggesting China ruled that NVIDIA (NVDA) violated anti-monopoly laws after concluding a prelim investigation, which ups the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations in Spain. USD/JPY trades on either side of its 21 and 50 DMAs (at 147.57 and 147.65 respectively) in a current 147.32-147.81 range.
  • GBP is underpinned by the mostly positive risk tone across Europe, albeit with the FTSE 100 hampered by its domestic currency strength. Over the weekend, the UK government announced over GBP 1.25bln of inward investment from US finance companies which will create 1,800 UK jobs. On the domestic fiscal front, UK Chancellor Reeves plans to scrap VAT on energy to lower bills and told cabinet members that ‘all options were on the table’ for a budget giveaway to ease the cost of living, according to The Sunday Times.
  • Antipodeans are both holding a mild upward bias amid the mostly positive risk tone in the market and USD weakness at the time of writing.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1056 vs exp. 7.1213 (Prev. 7.1019)
  • Canadian PM Carney said the budget deficit will be ‘substantial’, meaning bigger than it was last year due to US tariffs, while he announced a new federal agency with CAD 13bln to build affordable housing.

Fixed Income

  • USTs started the week on the backfoot but have traded with an upward bias throughout the European morning. Officials from China and the US have begun the second day of talks in Spain. A lot of the focus has been on TikTok while overnight the FT reported that the lack of progress in US talks with China on tariffs and fentanyl is said to have reduced the chances of a Beijing summit. Most recently, China’s Market regulator is continuing its antitrust investigation into NVIDIA; an update that hit the risk tone and lifted USTs back to a 113-08 high; currently in a 113-02 to 113-08 band. Focus ahead on the appointment process for Miran, who looks set to be eligible to partake in this week’s meeting, assuming the votes progress without incident.
  • Bunds are in the green, by just over 15 ticks at best. While firmer, the 128.73 peak is someway shy of Friday’s 129.09 best which, in turn, is someway below last week’s 129.44 peak. Specifics a little light so far. For Germany specifically, August WPI came in at 0.7% Y/Y (prev. 0.5%), Destatis highlights that this is primarily due to higher prices for food, beverages and tobacco products. Elsewhere, exit polls from NRW in focus as Chancellor Merz’s CDU won with 34% of the vote, while support for AfD tripled to 16.5%.
  • Gilts are marginally outperforming into a week packed with UK data and then the BoE on Thursday. At best, higher by 17 ticks in a 91.14 to 91.41 band. Specifics are a little light since the Gilt open. However, newsflow beforehand was focused on various investment details with the Government announcing over GBP 1.25bln of inward investment from US firms, a deal for SNRs involving Centrica and a GBP 1.1bln maritime scheme; all ahead of this week’s US state visit by President Trump. Elsewhere, The Sunday Times reports that Chancellor Reeves intends to scrap VAT on energy with all options on the table for a budget giveaway to ease the cost of living situation.

Commodities

  • Crude is modestly firmer against the backdrop of a softer USD and following recent comments by US President Trump that he is willing to impose sanctions on Russia, but noted that Europe has to toughen sanctions and should stop purchasing oil from Russia. WTI currently resides in a USD 62.52-63.24/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.78-67.52/bbl range.
  • Spot gold is flat despite a softer dollar ahead of this week’s central bank meetings and with the spotlight on Wednesday’s FOMC. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,626.46-,3646.95/oz range
  • Base metals trade mixed with the upside contained as participants digested the latest Chinese activity data, which fell short of expectations. China’s economy showed signs of slowing in August, with weaker retail sales, industrial production, and investment, rising unemployment, and a struggling housing market. Slowing export growth and persistent deflation added pressure on Beijing to introduce near-term stimulus measures, according to data from the NBS. 3M LME copper holds above USD 10k/t and resides in a USD 10,053.97-10,102.00/t range at the time of writing.
  • EDF said it has received a strike notice for Wednesday September 17th 20:00BST to Thursday September 18th 20:00BST.
  • Iraq signed a joint operation agreement with TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy LNG, according to the Iraqi PM.
  • Egypt signed three new agreements for investments worth more than USD 121mln for oil and gas exploration in the Western Desert, Suez Gulf and north of Sinai.
  • Ecuador’s government is withdrawing its diesel subsidy and will redirect funds to social programs.
  • Thailand reportedly mulling tax on gold trades to slow the THB rally, according to Bloomberg; follows, Thai PM saying they need to urgently address the strong THB.
  • Indonesia’s Mining Minister is targeting an increase in the ownership of Freeport (FCX) Indonesia by over 10%.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said getting rid of Hamas chiefs living in Qatar would rid the main obstacle to releasing all hostages and ending the war in Gaza.
  • Hamas said on Sunday it suspended talks on a prisoner swap with Israel after accusing Israel of targeting its negotiating delegation in Doha last week.
  • Qatar’s PM said Israel’s attack will not lead to anything but aborting de-escalating efforts, and Israeli ‘practices’ will not stop Doha from its Gaza mediation efforts with Egypt and the US to end the war.
  • Iran’s top security body warned on Sunday that EU threats to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran could jeopardise efforts to restore international monitoring of the country’s nuclear program, according to Economic Times.
  • Afghan Foreign Ministry said US officials held talks in Kabul over Americans detained in Afghanistan.

Geopolitics: Ukraine 

  • Russia’s Kremlin says NATO is fighting Russia, that is a certainty; obvious that NATO is de facto involved in this war; has provided direct and indirect support to Kyiv.
  • Chinese Commerce Ministry firmly opposes US secondary tariffs over Russian oil purchases; said will take measures to safeguard legitimate rights and interests.
  • Russia’s Deputy Chair said “Allowing NATO countries to shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine means war between NATO and Russia”, via Sky News Arabia
  • US President Trump said he is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia when all NATO nations have agreed and started to do the same thing, and when all NATO nations stop buying oil from Russia. Trump said NATO is placing 50%-100% tariffs on China, to be fully withdrawn after the Russia-Ukraine war ends, while he added that China has strong control, and even grip, over China and these powerful tariffs will break that grip. Trump later commented that he is willing to impose sanctions on Russia, as well as stated that Europe has to toughen sanctions and should avoid purchasing oil from Russia.
  • G7 Finance Ministers discussed options to increase pressure on Russia to end its war against Ukraine and agreed to accelerate discussions to further use immobilised Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine, while they also agreed to explore other mechanisms that would allow further increasing financial support to Ukraine. Furthermore, they discussed a range of possible economic measures, including further sanctions and trade measures such as tariffs.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on Friday that they can confirm the Russian offensive operation on Sumy had been completely thwarted by their forces.
  • Ukraine’s Defence Minister said Ukraine will need at least USD 120bln next year for defence efforts.
  • Ukrainian military said Ukraine attacked Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery, while the regional governor said the refinery sustained a fire, which was put out.
  • Russian troops struck control points, launch sites and storage sites for long-range drones in Ukraine, while Russian troops captured Novomykolaivka in eastern Ukraine, according to TASS. Furthermore, Russia’s Defence Ministry said early on Sunday that Russia had shot down 361 Ukrainian drones over the past day, while it also stated that Russia test-fired a Zircon hypersonic cruise missile at a target in the Barents Sea during ’Zapad’ exercises.
  • Polish and allied aircraft were deployed on Saturday in a “preventive” operation in Poland’s airspace because of a threat of drone strikes in neighbouring areas of Ukraine, and the airport in Lublin was closed, while the alert lasted about two hours, according to The Guardian.
  • Romania scrambled two F-16 fighter jets after a Russian drone entered Romania’s airspace on Sunday, while the drone was tracked by the Romanian air force for nearly an hour before leaving.
  • Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces take control of Olhivske in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, according to Ria.

Geopolitics: Other

  • US, Japan and the Philippines held joint maritime exercises in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone in the South China Sea from Thursday to Saturday.
  • Chinese military conducted ‘routine’ cruises in the South China Sea and said it will continue to defend China’s sovereignty in the South China Sea, while it also stated that the Philippines must immediately stop provoking incidents and must stop escalating tensions in the South China Sea.
  • Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said the Pakistani Deputy PM received a call from US Secretary of State Rubio and they both expressed satisfaction over a positive trajectory of US-Pakistan ties, as well as discussed recent developments.
  • Venezuela said a US Navy destroyer intercepted and boarded a Venezuelan tuna vessel on Friday in waters in Venezuela’s economic zone, while its government demanded that the US stop targeting Venezuelan vessels, which it said places the security and peace of the Caribbean at risk.

US event calendar

  • 8:30 am: Sep Empire Manufacturing -8.7, est. 5, prior 11.9

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Clearly this week is all about the FOMC conclusion on Wednesday and the likely continuation of the US rate cutting cycle that started exactly a year ago and got as far as one 50bps and two 25bps cuts, with the last being 9 months ago now. We’ll preview the meeting below but it’s not the only big central bank meeting this week with the Bank of Canada also meeting on Wednesday with the BoE (preview here) and Norges Bank on Thursday, and the BoJ (preview here) on Friday being the other main ones deciding on rates. Markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a Canadian cut, a 61% of a Norwegian one but minuscule probabilities of a change in Japan or the UK. By my count there are 16 global central banks deciding on rates this week with Brazil and Indonesia on Wednesday the largest of the rest, with markets expecting both to stay on hold.

Other highlights through the week are speeches from the likes of Lagarde and Schnabel from the ECB today; US retail sales, industrial production, and the NAHB index, alongside the UK employment data, Canadian CPI, the German ZEW survey and a 20yr UST auction tomorrow; US housing starts and permits, and UK inflation (preview here) on Wednesday; the US Phili Fed, jobless claims and a 10yr TIPS auction on Thursday; and Japanese CPI (preview here), German PPI and UK, French and Canadian retail sales on Friday. See the full day by day calendar of events at the end as usual.

Previewing the Fed now and markets are pricing in 26bps worth of cuts and haven’t ever gone beyond 29bps (just after payrolls 10 days ago) for this meeting. So, assuming no big surprises, this FOMC is all about the signalling via the statement, Powell’s press conference, and the SEP. In their preview note on Friday (“Fed Notes: September FOMC preview: Back (to back?) to risk management school “), our economists changed their view to 75bps worth of cuts this year, 25bps at each of the remaining meetings. This path would leave the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75% by year end, consistent with their view of neutral. The weaker labour market data and slightly lower inflation than they anticipated has led them to this view, but they don’t expect further cuts in 2026 although the risks are on the downside, and much might depend on how the Fed leadership and board composition evolves. Markets are pricing in 141bps of cuts by next December, so significantly above our forecasts.

Our economists believe that the median dot of the updated SEP will likely show 75bps of total reductions for 2025, 25bps more than in June. However, there is likely to be differing views within the committee. On the dovish side there could be three calling for a 50bp cut and possibly one or two voting for no change. It has the potential to be the first meeting where three governors dissent since 1988, and the first with dissents on both sides since September 2019.
Powell’s discussion of the labour market is likely to sound materially different compared to the July meeting and closer to his communications at Jackson Hole, but he could still allude to some of the slowdown in job gains reflecting supply-side dynamics driven by immigration policies. His tone on inflation will likely be more dovish as although August CPI was somewhat hotter than expected the details from PPI and CPI point to a more subdued reading on core PCE later this month, likely in the 20-24bps range, according to our economists. Overall the meeting’s most important theme will be what it signals going forward.

Asian markets are starting the week mostly higher with a weak monthly data dump from China, encouraging hopes of further policy stimulus.  As I check my screens, the KOSPI (+0.41%) is edging higher trading at a record high while marking its 10th straight session of gains after South Korea’s Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol indicated that the government will scrap its previous plan to raise taxes on stock investments. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.29%), the CSI (+0.82%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.22%) are hoping for fresh stimulus. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.21%) is bucking the regional trend while Japanese markets are closed for a holiday which also means US Treasuries aren’t trading yet. US equities futures are up less than a tenth of a percentage point.

Coming back to China, retail sales expanded by a modest +3.4% y/y, falling short of analysts’ +3.8% forecast and declining from July’s +3.7% increase, signaling persistent weakness in domestic demand. Similarly, industrial output growth softened to +5.2% in August, down from +5.7% in July and reaching its lowest point since August 2024. Year-to-date fixed-asset investment saw a significant slowdown, growing by just +0.5% compared to +1.6% in the January-July period, and missing economists’ +1.5% projection. See our economists’ view of the numbers here and the implications for policy.

Recapping last week now, and equities continued to advance, largely driven by optimism surrounding interest rate cuts and strong performances from tech stocks. The S&P 500 rose +1.59% (-0.05% Friday) while the NASDAQ achieved new record highs on each of the five trading days, ending the week up +2.03% (+0.44% Friday). This performance was bolstered by Mag 7 stocks advancing +3.20% (+1.67% Friday) and a standout performance from Oracle (+25.51%; -5.09% on Friday) amidst news of a $300bn deal with OpenAI and a strong outlook for its cloud business. European equities also saw gains, with the Stoxx 600 up +1.03% (-0.09% Friday), the DAX up +0.43% (-0.02% Friday), while the CAC 40 advanced +1.96% (+0.02% Friday) as Sébastien Lecornu took over as the new prime minster and will now seek to pass a budget through a fractious parliament. Fitch downgraded France late on Friday from AA- to A+ with a stable outlook. At the same time, they upgraded Portugal to A from A-, while S&P upgraded Spain from A to A+, all with a stable outlook. The rating moves are in line with our strategists long held convergence view, but the upgrade of Spain was a welcome surprise. especially as it’s now three notches ahead of where Moody’s rate it. They are likely to be forced to play catch up soon.

On the data side, significant downward revisions of -911k to US payroll data and softer weekly initial jobless claims reinforced the view of a softer labour market, strengthening the narrative for Fed easing. On the inflation side, a softer US PPI at -0.1% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) provided reassurance regarding inflation trends which was then followed by a stronger August CPI print of +0.4% (vs. +0.3% expected), though its details pointed to a moderating impact of tariffs and the read through to PCE of the week’s data was softer than expected. On Friday, the University of Michigan 5-10yr inflation expectations came in at 3.9% (vs. 3.4% expected), but this data has long been questioned because of the extreme partisan responses, while consumer sentiment fell to 55.4 (vs. 58.0 expected). All that left curve flattening as the main theme for US Treasuries. The 2yr yield rose +4.8bps (+1.4bps Friday), after briefly hitting its lowest level in 3 years on Monday, while 10yr yields were down -0.9bps (+4.5bps Friday) to 4.07% and 30yr yields fell by -7.8bps (+2.7bps Friday).

In Europe, the ECB kept its deposit rates on hold at 2% for a second meeting in a row, with President Lagarde’s signal that policy was “in a good place” suggesting a higher bar for another rate cut. That left markets pricing only 10bps of further easing by mid-2026 (-9.0bps on the week) and contributed to a sell-off in government bonds, with 2yr bund yields +8.9bps higher (+3.2bps Friday) and 10yr yields up +5.3bps to 2.71% (+5.9bps Friday).

Oil prices experienced sizeable volatility, with Brent crude up +2.27% over the week (+0.93% Friday) amid increasing concerns over potential new Western measures targeting Russian oil as well as Israel’s strike against Hamas’ leadership in Qatar. Gold prices also surged by +1.57% (+0.25% on Friday) to a new record high of $3,643/oz, benefiting from the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts and its traditional role as a safe-haven asset.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 08:46

“Trump Inherited A Turd Of An Economy” – Ed Dowd Warns Of ‘Panic Rate-Cut Cycle’

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“Trump Inherited A Turd Of An Economy” – Ed Dowd Warns Of ‘Panic Rate-Cut Cycle’

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com had a storied Wall Street career.  He got out of Enron and Lucent long before they crashed and burned. 

A few of the many other more recent correct calls Dowd has made include:  interest rates topping and heading lower (they did), housing tanking and going lower (happening now), massive fraud propping up the Biden economy with illegal immigration (20 million brought in by Biden Admin) and the BLS just restated job creation numbers for 12 months ending in March. 

The restatement revealed an eye popping 911,000 jobs were fake.  Dowd said just after the 2024 election that “Trump inherited a turd of an economy.”  Now, Dowd says, “Trump has to deal with a turd of a disaster.” 

On the phony jobs number alone, Dowd says,

You could say this is statistical fraud or bureaucratic incompetence.  Let’s say it’s both.  It such an egregious 7 standard deviation. 

3.4 standard deviation is the chance of lightning hitting you at least once in your lifetime.  It’s not likely.  7 deviation is suggestive of fraud–full stop.”

All the frauds propping up the Biden economy isn’t causing inflation now–just the opposite.  Dowd says,

“The housing market is rolling over because people can’t afford them.  What was keeping a floor in the housing market were rents by the illegal aliens.  That’s all going the wrong way.  Trump is deporting people, and we closed down the border.  Our housing report that we put out a month ago . . . all the indicators are rolling over, and we are going to have a housing recession.  We are going to see inflation go lower because housing is 36% of the economy.  We expect to see a sub 2% print on inflation.”

What about the Fed cutting interest rates next week? 

Dowd says, “They cut rates in the Great Financial Crisis starting in 2007.  Our stock market did not bottom until 2009.  This is the beginning of what I think is the ‘panic rate cut cycle.’”

“We are going to see the Fed cutting rates all the way down into this asset deflation that we see coming in this panic rate cut cycle. 

Cutting into slowing growth does not cause assets to reinflate.  They are behind the curve, and they are going to be cutting all the way down as we deflate.”

Dowd still likes gold and says his clients are acquiring gold and land, not crypto. 

He also says there are big problems coming in the not-so-distant future from China and Europe. 

Dowd says his forecast of the world going into a “very deep recession” will come true soon.

There is much more in the 54-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, author of the updated book called “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023” for 9.13.25. 

Dowd contends the “sudden deaths” and disabilities are still happening at epidemic levels.  Now, there are 6 million Americans permanently disabled from the CV19 injections!!

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 08:45

Tesla Soars After Musk Buys Billion Dollars Worth Of Stock 

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Tesla Soars After Musk Buys Billion Dollars Worth Of Stock 

Tesla shares are on the verge of a technical breakout – something that unhinged Democrats (CC: Tim Walz) must be absolutely furious about – after a new SEC filing revealed that Elon Musk went on a Friday shopping spree, snapping up roughly $1 billion worth of stock. The move has boosted Tesla’s market cap by $100 billion, a savvy squeeze on the shorts.

According to a newly filed SEC document, Musk purchased 2.5 million shares through a series of trades valued at about $1 billion.

The billion-dollar purchase comes as shares broke out of an ascending triangle on Friday and are now trading near record highs. As of Monday morning’s premarket trading, the stock was up 8.3% around the $428 level.

While Elon’s purchases could be tied to creating momentum to break shares to the upside, we must remind readers that the purchase comes days after Larry Ellison briefly surpassed Musk to become the world’s richest person, following a massive jump in Oracle’s stock

We dared Musk to come up with something even more outrageous than Ellison…

And, oh boy, did he. 

Here’s the latest from the Bloomberg Billionaire Index (as of Friday’s close). 

Musk clearly enjoys the title of being the world’s richest – and what better way to mint $100 billion in market cap than with just $1 billion in stock purchases? Now does Ellison have a trick or two of his own… 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/15/2025 – 08:20