The government shutdown has entered its eighth day, with Republicans and Democrats still at an impasse over a resolution. Earlier this week, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that the shutdown could cost the U.S. economy $15 billion per week. If it drags on for several more weeks, the economic disruption could become far more widespread.

Before consumers make decisions, their sentiment is usually affected. To gauge the current sentiment impact of the shutdown, real estate company Redfin conducted a survey last Friday – just several days into the shutdown – that found 17% of respondents are delaying major purchases, such as a home or vehicle, because of the political turmoil in Washington, D.C.

Roughly one in six (17%) Americans are delaying a major purchase like a home or car because of the federal government shutdown, according to a new Redfin survey. Another 7% are canceling plans for a major purchase altogether. The majority of Americans (65%) said the government shutdown has no impact on their purchasing plans.

This is according to a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos on October 3, 2025. The nationally representative survey was fielded to 1,005 U.S. residents. The combined results have a credibility interval of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The report continued: 

Some people are canceling or delaying big purchases because they’re directly impacted by the government shutdown; i.e. they’re a federal government employee or contractor who is not currently getting paid, and they may be worried about getting laid off. But most Americans aren’t in that position. People whose incomes aren’t directly dependent on the federal government’s budget may be rethinking a major purchase because the shutdown is one more in a long line of events making Americans feel unstable about their finances.

Adding to the economic gloom of the shutdown, an Axios report on Tuesday, citing a draft White House memo, said the 750,000 furloughed federal employees aren’t guaranteed compensation for their forced time off. 

Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather noted:

“A government shutdown doesn’t just stop paychecks for some federal employees–it shakes the financial confidence of Americans. People across the country are taking in the news and thinking, ‘we’ve faced inflation, tariffs, job losses, a volatile stock market, and now a government shutdown–what’s next?’ It’s understandable that some people are reconsidering buying a home or a car when the economy feels uncertain.”

Redfin data was not broken down by geographical location, which would have been helpful given that 15.12% of all federal civilian employees, according to OPM, are located in the D.C.–MD–VA–WV metro area.

Update(1707ET): In an unusual moment, during a White House round-table on Antifa, Secretary of State Marco Rubio interrupted things to inform President Trump of something quite urgent. Whether a deal is really imminent or not, it still made for good theater, at the very least. Trump soon after this moment left the meeting, announcing “I have to go now to try to solve Middle East problems.”

🚨 BREAKING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio just handed President Trump a note regarding a MAJOR foreign policy development

“I’ve been given a note by the secretary of state saying we are VERY close to a deal in the Middle East! They will need me pretty quickly, so I can take a… pic.twitter.com/11VMx6fAIb

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 8, 2025

Not long before that interruption, he had speculated that if the Egypt-hosted negotiations achieved a deal, he would likely travel to the Middle East. He even named Gaza as a potential destination, but then said it would most likely be Egypt.

“Peace for the Middle East, that’s a beautiful phrase, and we hope it’s going to come true, but it’s very close, and they’re doing very well,” Trump told reporters.

Does this mean he’s getting ready for a major announcement? There have been ‘false starts’ on Gaza peace before (many times, actually)… so will this be the one to stick?

* * *

Axios last week reported that President Trump recently told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop being so “f*cking negative” and “take the win” after Hamas voiced its initial agreement to free the 48 remaining hostages (both dead and alive) as part of the US 20-point peace plan for Gaza.

However, in more recent remarks Trump has denied ever saying this, or clashing with the Israeli leader on the pending agreement. “No, it’s not true. He’s been very positive on the deal,” Trump said of Netanyahu.

Asked specifically whether he has any red lines for Hamas in new round of negotiations that kicked off Monday in Egypt, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he does: “If certain things aren’t met, we’re not going to do it,” he said.

Commenting on the potential for private vs. public friction further, Israeli media concludes the following:

Trump at times has avoided criticizing Netanyahu in public, even as reports have mounted about his private frustration with the Israeli premier, including during a tense phone call last week in which the Axios news site reported the US president responded angrily when Netanyahu said Hamas’s ambivalent response was “nothing to celebrate.”

US envoy Steve Witkoff is in Egypt joining the talks Wednesday, as is Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, and Erdogan too has sent Turkish officials, which may amount to too many cooks in the kitchen. The Turkish delegation is led by spy chief Ibrahim Kalin. 

Top Hamas leader Taher al-Nunu has offered a generally positive assessment of where thing stand so far. “The mediators are making great efforts to remove any obstacles to the implementation of the ceasefire, and a spirit of optimism prevails among all parties,” he said.

The two warring sides have exchanges lists of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners to be released in the major swap. But even if this is agreed to, the question of ending the war, and a future Gaza where Hamas is disarmed, remains a big open one.

The Egyptians and Qataris have signaled from the start that there isn’t enough in the plan for Hamas. People need to step back and recognize that on the core issues, the sides are as apart as they have ever been regardless of Pres Trump’s pressure. https://t.co/GkJgkYo9s0

— Steven A. Cook (@stevenacook) October 7, 2025

In Tuesday comments in the Oval Office, Trump said “So the primary guarantee is, once this deal happens, if it does happen — look, they’re in negotiations right now.”

“We are going to do everything possible. We have a lot of power, and we’re going to do everything possible to make sure everybody adheres to the deal,” he added. However, it’s notable that Trump stopped short of explicitly vowing that Israel would be barred from resuming military operations. For now, media reports say “progress” is being made in 

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Nearly 80 percent of Americans favor the deportation of immigrants who are in the United States illegally and have committed crimes, and a clear majority favor deporting all immigrants who are here illegally, according to a new poll.

President Trump’s policy of deporting criminal illegal aliens is his second most popular policy according to the Harvard Caps/Harris poll, just under lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low income patients.

The survey was conducted online within the United States on October 1-2, amid loud and often violent left-wing protests outside of ICE facilities in cities like Portland and Chicago.

The vast majority of respondents—78 percent—said they favored “deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have committed crimes.”

Even among Democrats, 69 percent said they favored the policy, while 77 percent of independents and  87 percent of Republicans do.

“Deporting all immigrants who are here illegally” garnered 56 percent support among all respondents.

The majority of Republicans and Independents favor the policy by 76 percent and 54 percent respectively, while only 36 percent of Democrats do.

“President Trump’s efforts to Make America Safe Again are very popular!” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt commented on X, Tuesday, in response to the poll.

The surprising results come as Democrat politicians in blue cities and states continue to resist the president’s deportation efforts, with far-left Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson on Monday signing an executive order designating “ICE-Free Zones,” and governors JB Pritsker  and Gavin Newsom ) suing the Trump administration to block National Guard deployments in Illinois and California.

Update (1540ET):

Ford shares fell slightly in late trading after Reuters reported that Ford Motor will pause production next week at its Dearborn, Michigan, auto plant, which builds the F-150 Lightning electric pickup. The shutdown is linked to a September 16 fire at Novelis’s aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, a major supplier of sheet aluminum used to make the truck’s body.

As detailed in our previous report below, the blaze severely damaged Novelis’s hot mill, disrupting sheet aluminum production that won’t come back online until early 2026. 

Reuters said details about Ford’s planned shutdown of the EV truck plant came from union official Nick Kottalis, who heads the Dearborn Truck and REVC operations. He confirmed the stoppage planned for next week. 

Earlier, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally wrote in a note to clients, “We believe this is largely a Ford issue, at this time being, although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for [Stellantis] and Toyota as well,” adding, the disruption at the Dearborn plant will generate a $500 million to $1 billion hit to Frod’s EBIT. 

Shares of Ford have slumped more than 8% since Bloomberg reported on Tuesday how Novelis’s aluminum plant disruption will likely affect Ford.

*  *  * 

A devastating fire at a major aluminum plant in New York in mid-September is set to roil the U.S. auto industry and could even disrupt production of Ford Motor’s F-150 pickup trucks, according to a new Wall Street Journal report. 

The Novelis aluminum mill in Oswego, New York, suffered a fire on September 16 that destroyed the building housing the hot mill, rendering the plant inoperable until at least early 2026. This part of the facility is where sheet aluminum used by the auto industry is produced. 

The plant supplies about 40% of all aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, making it a very critical production node for America’s auto industry. WSJ noted that Ford is the mill’s largest customer and primarily uses the lightweight industrial metal for its top-selling and most profitable model, the F-150 pickup.

Shares of Ford in New York were hammered on the news by midday, down 7%, marking the worst intraday decline in eight months. 

WSJ cited industry analysts who warned the impacts of the mill’s closure are widespread: 

Novelis produces more than 350,000 metric tons of sheet aluminum annually for the automotive industry, according to industry analysts. Around a dozen automakers get aluminum from Novelis, including Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Jeep maker Stellantis, according to a regulatory filing.

Kaustubh Chandorkar, an aluminum-industry analyst, said this incident “represents a serious question for the production of F-150 because that’s the aluminum that comes out of Oswego.” He pointed out that the automaker switched the F-150’s exterior skin from steel to aluminum about a decade ago. 

“Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions,” a Ford spokesperson stated.

Novelis, owned by India’s Hindalco Industries, is preparing to mitigate production losses in the U.S. by sourcing the metal from overseas plants in Europe, Brazil, and South Korea. However, a 50% tariff on imported aluminum complicates things.

This incident could trigger one of the most severe supply shocks for North American automakers in years. All eyes are on Ford’s upcoming earnings call for more details on the situation, as well as on its Dearborn Truck Plant and Kansas City Assembly Plant, for any signs of slowing production that would only signal snarled supply chains. 

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It’s odd to consider, but a recession could flip our bullish outlook on bonds to bearish. It’s unusual because typically, inflation drops during a recession, leading to lower yields and higher bond prices. While we believe that if an economic downturn or recession occurs soon, the immediate effect on bonds will be favorable. However, the bigger question in our mind is how steep a decline in yields we might see.

While many factors will ultimately influence the answer, the primary constraint on a decline in yield may be the government’s response to a recession. In 2020 and again in 2021, the government issued checks to the public to stimulate economic growth. These checks, along with other large-scale fiscal spending and supply chain shutdowns, led to the highest inflation rates since the early 1980s. Although it’s unlikely that the next recession will face supply constraints like those during the pandemic, we worry that another round of fiscal stimulus, including direct payments to the public, could drive inflation higher. Moreover, grossly negligent fiscal deficits could further spur the bond vigilantes to pressure yields higher.

Some of our readers, upon hearing this concern, have asked us how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) can protect them in such a situation. To answer their question, we review recent history and compare an actual TIPS to a non-inflation-adjusted Treasury bond (nominal bond) before, during, and after the 2022 inflation surge. Additionally, we provide an overview of TIPS to help you better understand their mechanics and when they might offer better returns than nominal bonds.

TIPS vs Nominal Bonds 2020-2025

In our opinion, a great way to help readers become better acquainted with TIPS is to illustrate how TIPS have performed over the last five years in comparison to a typical fixed-coupon non-TIP US Treasury bond (nominal bond).

To accomplish this, we selected a TIPS and a nominal bond with nearly identical maturities and issuance dates. Both bonds, detailed below, mature in October 2025, providing a complete performance picture.

TIP 

• Cusip: 91282CAQ4

• Coupon: 0.125%

• Issuance Yield:  -1.32%

• Issue Date:  10/15/2020

• Maturity Date:  10/15/2025

Nominal Bond

• Cusip: 91282CAT8

• Coupon: 0.250%

• Issuance Yield:  0.33%

• Issue Date:  11/2/2020

• Maturity Date:  10/31/2025

At issuance, the TIPS yield was -1.32% while the nominal bond yield was +0.33%. Therefore, at that time, the implied inflation rate, otherwise known as the breakeven inflation rate, for the next five years was 1.65%. Had the actual inflation rate over the next five years been 1.65%, the total return on the TIP would have been identical to that of the nominal bond at +0.33%. This calculation is based on the yield to maturity of -1.32% plus the inflation benefit of +1.65%.

It turns out inflation was almost 3% more than what the market expected. CPI, the index used for TIPS calculations, has averaged 4.43% since the bonds were issued. Thus, the yield on our TIP bond was not the -1.32% yield to maturity at issuance, nor the expected 0.33%, but 3.11% (-1.32% + 4.43%).  Investors who bet that actual inflation would exceed inflation expectations were rewarded for choosing TIPS over nominal bonds.

The graph and table below show the total returns of both bonds. Total return includes the coupon payments, the inflation factor, and the price changes from issuance to maturity.

TIPS Mechanics

TIPS are debt securities issued by the U.S. government. Like most U.S. Treasury securities, TIPS have a specified maturity date and coupon rate. However, unlike other Treasury bonds, the principal value of TIPS changes in response to inflation. The so-called TIPS inflation factor is multiplied by the par value to determine the principal value. But, even if inflation is negative, the principal will never drop below the bond’s original par value (100).

The dollar amount of the coupon payment is not constant, unlike nominal bonds. For TIPS, it is the coupon rate times the inflation-adjusted principal value. However, unlike other Treasury bonds, the principal value of TIPS varies with changes in the inflation rate. In our example above, the factor increased from 1.00 at issuance to 1.246 at maturity. As a result, the final coupon payment was 24.6% larger than the initial coupon payment.

Breakeven Inflation, Not Yield To Maturity

When comparing TIPS to other bonds, investors should focus less on the yield to maturity. Instead, the breakeven inflation rate is far more important.

For example, as we mentioned earlier, even though the initial yield to maturity was -1.32%, the yield at maturity for the TIPS ended up being +3.11%, not the -1.32% it was at issuance. The yield to maturity at issuance and at maturity for nominal bonds is always the same.

The breakeven rate is simply the yield difference between TIPS and nominal bonds with the same maturity date. If realized inflation over the life of a TIPS is less than the breakeven rate, the investor earns a lower return than if they had bought a nominal bond with the same maturity. Conversely, as we showed earlier, in our example, if inflation exceeds the breakeven rate, the TIPS investor earns a higher return than a nominal Treasury bond.

Current Environment

Currently, the yield on a five-year TIPS and a nominal Treasury bond is 1.15% and 3.65% respectively. Thus, the breakeven inflation rate is currently 2.50%.

For some market context, consider the following estimates of inflation for the next five years:

• University of Michigan Consumer Survey- 5 Year Inflation Expectations is currently 3.70%.

• The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations median inflation expectation is 2.90%.

• The Cleveland Fed projects 2.32%

• The Fed’s FOMC current long-range inflation projection is 2.00%.

As an investor choosing between a 5-year TIPS and a nominal bond, the key question to ask is whether the CPI will average more or less than 2.50%.

Keep in mind that the answer might change during a recession. Therefore, TIPS could appear much more appealing than nominal bonds for those who believe the government will boost inflation with heavy fiscal spending.

Summary

Markets have a long history of assuming the future will be just like the past. Until 2020, the market assumed inflation would be benign. Over the last five years, that assumption has fallen apart, as we illustrated in our example. However, looking forward, we must assess whether the recent high-inflationary period will persist, or will the sub-2% inflation of the pre-pandemic era reassert itself?

In relation to this article, the answer to the question above may depend on whether or not a round or multiple rounds of checks are written to the populace to combat a recession.  

President Donald Trump is hosting a White House roundtable with independent journalists who have experienced Antifa’s violence firsthand. In addition to journalists and influencers, Seamus Bruner, the lead researcher for Peter Schweizer’s Government Accountability Institute, will also be at the table to discuss dark-money-funded NGO networks that are fueling chaos across America.

The roundtable discussion is scheduled for 3 p.m. EST and comes amid renewed Antifa attacks on ICE facilities in Portland and other crime-ridden sanctuary cities. Over the past decade, Democrats and left-wing groups have normalized assassination culture by labeling Trump and his supporters as “fascists” and “Nazis.” That dangerous rhetoric has fueled an alarming wave of nihilistic accelerationism among extremist “woke warriors,” culminating in horrific incidents such as the transgender mass shooter at a Catholic Church in Minneapolis and the political assassination of Charlie Kirk last month. The Kirk assassination placed radical leftist groups at the center of discussion for White House officials.     

“For too long, Antifa has ravaged great American cities while ineffectual Democrat leaders turn a blind eye — and most in the media have gone right along with them,” White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Fox News Digital Wednesday, adding, “Some reporters have been brave enough to blaze their own trail and report the facts rather than go along with the Fake News Groupthink.”

Fox News Digital reports that the roundtable will feature Trump delivering remarks before hearing from Cabinet members and independent journalists. These cabinet members and administration officials include Attorney General Pam Bondi, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, FBI Director Kash Patel, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. 

Independent journalists slated to join the roundtable include Nick Sortor, Cam Higby, Jonathan Choe, Andy Ngo, Katie Daviscourt, James Klug, Savanah Hernandez, Nick Shirley, Brandi Kruse, and Julio Rojas. 

Jonathan Choe wrote on X, 

I’m heading to the White House with a group of independent journalists for what’s being called a “Roundtable on Antifa.” We are about to brief President Trump on how these domestic terrorists operate and it could help federal authorities disrupt their covert network. What a time to be alive. 

HAPPENING NOW: I’m heading to the White House with a group of independent journalists for what’s being called a “Roundtable on Antifa.”
We are about to brief President Trump on how these domestic terrorists operate and it could help federal authorities disrupt their covert… pic.twitter.com/mUbL57OecT

— Jonathan Choe (@choeshow) October 8, 2025

Bruner, the lead researcher for Peter Schweizer, is expected to share new details about dark-money–funded NGOs backed by foundations such as the Rockefeller Foundation, the Arabella Network, Tides, and Soros, along with foreign-linked funders like Neville Roy Singham, who have fueled unrest across the country. 

Bruner’s briefing to Trump will build on the New York Times’ report, citing a Capital Research Center report, that “Soros’ Open Society gave $80 million to pro-terror groups“…

Here’s a preview…

🚨The beginning of the end for Chaos, Inc.?
The Government Accountability Institute has mapped how non-governmental funding networks intersect with protest and activist movements across the US. The chaos and unrest spreading across this country, especially the ongoing anti-ICE… pic.twitter.com/IQlYwAKWuW

— Seamus Bruner (@seamusbruner) October 8, 2025

This will be music to Stephen Miller’s ears, as the White House official recently declared war on the radical left, vowing to “disrupt” and “dismantle” the groups sowing chaos nationwide.

Watch Live:

. . . 

For Him // For Her // Save the planet

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

“Blue Horseshoe Loves Gold and Bitcoin”

Suddenly the likes of Goldman and  JP Morgan are talking about this and the mainstream press are framing it as “the so-called Debasement Trade”

Bitcoiners, of course, have been talking about this for, well since the beginning.

Except, it’s not a “trade.”

The trade du jour lasts for a couple weeks or a few months – then it starts getting referred to as “a crowded trade” and then some new theme emerges and all the hot-money rotates into that.

Less than two weeks ago a finance guru I’m aware of (I won’t name him) sold 90% of his Bitcoin and crypto positions (via IBIT and ETH) “due to bearish MACD crosses and support breaks”. 

Bitcoin has since run to successive new ATHs.

As I’ve long said, Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work. (I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion).

It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold:

what do you call this pic.twitter.com/qiWgG0bcGk

— Mark E. Jeftovic (@MarkJeftovic) October 6, 2025

To be fair to that finance influencer, I don’t follow him enough to know if he maintains separate core Bitcoin stack in self-custody, and these moves are just referring to his trading activities, as distinct from long term holds. He apparently rotated into TSLA and silver. He’s also since followed up, acknowledging that Bitcoin ran to fresh highs, but he still expects a 40% to 50% decline in cryptos over the next year because of that MACD crossover. That said, he sold his TSLA and went back into Bitcoin (which has since dropped about $4K  )

I don’t know if he’ll be proven right or wrong about a 50% drop  – what I do know, and something I found out the hard way right when I was about to launch The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter, was that trying to pick the intermediate tops and bottoms when it came to Bitcoin was a fool’s errand.

You end up getting whipsawed. It sure looks like I’m watching it happen to this guy right now.

The advice I’ve been giving to my subscribers over the years, both for Bitcoin and the stocks we hold in our portfolio has always been:

• Don’t try to time or trade the intermediate tops

• Whenever Bitcoin (or one of our holdings drops) we ask ourselves:

  • Is the underlying thesis intact?

  • If yes: the only decision is whether to buy more or hold through

  • If no: then you exit the position, at the moment your thesis is invalidated, regardless of the price.

• Beyond that – exit when your own personal financial goals are met.

That’s it,  basically the entire Bitcoin Capitalist playbook right here 

What got me thinking about all this today was all these headlines we’ve been seeing lately about “The Debasement Trade”.

This has been so obvious to Bitcoiners (and before that, goldbugs), for so long, that I didn’t really “clue in” to the fact that our entire long-term thesis is finally in the process of being mainstreamed right now.

Mainstream establishment analyst wakes up to what we have been talking about for 5 years. In fact, some of us even wrote books about it! @elerianm (had to do a screen shot because he blocked me). Proof that the elites are late and are not even here yet. pic.twitter.com/oxxOKClRpi

— Lawrence Lepard, “fix the money, fix the world” (@LawrenceLepard) October 2, 2025

Gold and BTC hitting all-time highs together is sending a signal.

Bond yields going up even though central banks are cutting rates, is sending a signal.

Stonks are hitting levels that make the .com bubble look like a bombed-out value play.

Why?

Because these aren’t trades anymore.

It’s capital flight.

*  *  *

The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter is our premium service for Bitcoin macro and the future of fintech. Try a special deal for Bombthrower readers here »
Sign up for the Bombthrower Mailing List here and get a free copy of The Bitcoin Treasuries Playbook.
Follow me Twitter/X or Nostr: npub1elwpzsul8d9k4tgxqdjuzxp0wa94ysr4zu9xeudrcxe2h3sazqkq5mehan

Axios last week reported that President Trump recently told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop being so “f*cking negative” and “take the win” after Hamas voiced its initial agreement to free the 48 remaining hostages (both dead and alive) as part of the US 20-point peace plan for Gaza.

However, in more recent remarks Trump has denied ever saying this, or clashing with the Israeli leader on the pending agreement. “No, it’s not true. He’s been very positive on the deal,” Trump said of Netanyahu.

Asked specifically whether he has any red lines for Hamas in new round of negotiations that kicked off Monday in Egypt, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he does: “If certain things aren’t met, we’re not going to do it,” he said.

Commenting on the potential for private vs. public friction further, Israeli media concludes the following:

Trump at times has avoided criticizing Netanyahu in public, even as reports have mounted about his private frustration with the Israeli premier, including during a tense phone call last week in which the Axios news site reported the US president responded angrily when Netanyahu said Hamas’s ambivalent response was “nothing to celebrate.”

US envoy Steve Witkoff is in Egypt joining the talks Wednesday, as is Trump’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, and Erdogan too has sent Turkish officials, which may amount to too many cooks in the kitchen. The Turkish delegation is led by spy chief Ibrahim Kalin. 

Top Hamas leader Taher al-Nunu has offered a generally positive assessment of where thing stand so far. “The mediators are making great efforts to remove any obstacles to the implementation of the ceasefire, and a spirit of optimism prevails among all parties,” he said.

The two warring sides have exchanges lists of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners to be released in the major swap. But even if this is agreed to, the question of ending the war, and a future Gaza where Hamas is disarmed, remains a big open one.

The Egyptians and Qataris have signaled from the start that there isn’t enough in the plan for Hamas. People need to step back and recognize that on the core issues, the sides are as apart as they have ever been regardless of Pres Trump’s pressure. https://t.co/GkJgkYo9s0

— Steven A. Cook (@stevenacook) October 7, 2025

In Tuesday comments in the Oval Office, Trump said “So the primary guarantee is, once this deal happens, if it does happen — look, they’re in negotiations right now.”

“We are going to do everything possible. We have a lot of power, and we’re going to do everything possible to make sure everybody adheres to the deal,” he added. However, it’s notable that Trump stopped short of explicitly vowing that Israel would be barred from resuming military operations. For now, media reports say “progress” is being made in 

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: Overtime pay is meant for employees working more than eight hours per day, but the Illinois Department of Corrections has found a way to circumvent that rule. Employees are using paid time off to stay home during work hours and then coming in later the same day to work overtime, according to a report from the state auditor released on Sept. 23. 

Key facts: Employees are more than happy to gain extra overtime hours and earn 1.5 times their regular salary, but the practice of “shift swapping” violates the Department of Corrections’ training manual, in the opinion of the state auditor. The department gets billed for overtime twice: first to pay an officer to cover for the employee on paid leave, and then again when the employee on leave returns later in the day. 

Auditors reviewed the 20 highest overtime earners from two of Illinois’ largest prisons. They found 150 times where an employee used an entire days’ worth of paid leave and also worked overtime the same day. 

The audit says that the Department of Corrections spent $151.7 million paying for nearly 3 million hours of overtime in 2024, but it’s unknown how much money individual employees earned in overtime. The audit does not specify, and the Illinois Comptroller did not separate base salary from overtime earnings in response to Open the Books’ open records request for employee compensation. 

Open the Books’ records do show that the highest-paid employee in the Corrections Department last year was Jermiagh Daly, who made $360,790. Another 107 people made more than $200,000. 

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com.  

Supporting quote: The Department of Corrections disagreed that shift swapping violates state policy because they are required to find volunteers for overtime hours before forcing any other employee to work overtime.  Otherwise, it would be a “violation of the collective bargaining agreement and would result in a higher cost to the State,” the department claimed in its response to the audit. 

Summary: Private companies can pay their employees however they like, but the government has a responsibility to field a workforce that is the most efficient for the taxpayers it serves. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com 

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The RBNZ cut the OCR 50bps to 2.50% vs. 25bps expectations but in-line with our forecast. Notably, the RBNZ said they are “open to further reductions as required” and we are now forecasting a further 25bp cut to 2.25% in November. Some of the Bank’s comments also raise an eyebrow: “Domestic inflationary pressures have continued to moderate as projected, giving the Committee more confidence that inflationary pressures are contained. Global inflation has continued to decline through 2025. Inflation is especially low throughout Asia, and negative in China. Headline inflation in the US has increased, but evidence suggests that pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has so far been weaker than expected. To date, there is little evidence of a material impact of tariffs on the prices of New Zealand’s imports or exports.” They’re right on Asia, if one overlooks food prices; the jury is out on the US, but they are echoing Fed new-boy Miran; and NZ hasn’t imposed any tariffs and a tariff on its exports couldn’t be inflationary for them anyway.

The EU raised steel tariffs to a Trumpian 50% level over a sharply reduced quota threshold as Bloomberg notes “The EU is trying to convince the US to lower its rate for EU steel and jointly target China instead, with the EU industry commissioner saying the EU shares the same industrial agenda as the US.” Yet does the US care as long as Europe already echoes its tariffs vs China?

In broader geoeconomics, US lawmakers are pushing to expanded chip export curbs on China, where a bipartisan Congressional panel just urged widened controls on chip tools and tighter coordination with US allies amid fears that the Trump White House is easing tech limits (SCMP). Will Europe belatedly follow suite on that front too in the areas it contributes to chipmaking?

It’s argued the US, in allowing preferential tariff access for some African countries to expire, is “pushing Africa further into China’s orbit’ (SCMP) – albeit as importers from it not exporters to it, at least not of textiles anyway.

Moreover, the Business Standard notes ‘From oil to pistachios: How barter trade is reshaping global commerce.’ That’s a dollar-priced but dollar-dodging scheme referred to here for years now, and underlined by recent Bloomberg exposes on how China is buying oil and metals from Iran in exchange for construction contracts and cars. Sanctions can’t do anything about it: stronger economic, or non-economic, statecraft tools would be required from the US. Relatedly, China is adding 11 new oil reserve sites in 2025 and 2026 – “because markets” obviously.

That’s as Congress also urged the White House to preserve stability in the Indo-Pacific and to “curb China’s Taiwan game plan”; the New York Times reports that Washington law firm Williams & Connolly was hacked by China as part of a larger campaign aimed at US law firms; Ukraine said it expects to get a slow drip of US Tomahawk missiles that won’t be used for deep strikes yet, but the longer Russia refuses to come to the table, the more they will get and the further into Russia they will be allowed to hit; National review warns ‘Brazil’s Leftist President Is Giving China a Foothold in America’s Backyard’; and Indian PM Modi praises Putin at the start of UK PM Starmer’s state visit, which Bloomberg describes as an “awkward note.”

50-50 is one way to read the news from the Middle East, where the Israeli PM’s office reports progress in cautious optimism over talks with Hamas, but some sources have it that the group is refusing to release hostages first as per the deal’s terms, insisting on Israeli withdrawal beforehand, and has named prisoners it demands released in exchange which Israel can’t accept.

Regardless, the Financial Times’ op-ed from Martin Wolf, based on somebody else’s work, argues ‘Trump’s tariffs won’t deliver many jobs’ as “Nostalgia is not a strategy: the past cannot return.” Ironically, as national security concerns soar, it’s the recent free trade past that likely can’t return for neoliberal/neoclassical thinkers who can ‘prove’ how few jobs balance on the head of any policy pin that pricks their ideological bubble.

Indeed, the op-ed ignores key arguments in a contested intellectual space: there are second and third order effects static models don’t capture; onshoring via automation (as with US firm Sharpie) is an economic benefit; and countries who successfully employed neomercantilism (not all, to be clear) gained jobs. Yet nostalgia for “because markets!” in the FT op-ed page lingers given it promised, but months later still can’t deliver, an alternative way to structure the global economy that doesn’t have what it admits are vast, destabilising imbalances in trade and capital flows, and in equality.

On which note, in the US, there is still no light at the end of the tunnel regarding the government shutdown, but Congress seems united against Trump’s shutdown back-pay threat that nobody will get the cash for days work missed so far.

As even a former French prime minister calls on President Macron to quit to end France’s crisis, which would trigger a presidential election that opposition leader Le Pen currently couldn’t contest as she is still in a court battle on that front, a possible way out being floated is France abandoning its planned pension reforms to placate socialists in parliament. Yet would that risk swapping a political crisis for a financial one? ‘What is happening in France may not stay in France, from Mohammad El-Erian, again in the FT, argues “Bond markets are losing patience with political paralysis.”

Yet ECB President Lagarde just re-upped her June argument that the Euro must become a key global reserve currency – right as Europe hits a major political crisis; is in a geopolitical one; is debating using Russia’s frozen FX reserves for Ukraine, scaring off Global South capital; sees whispers of (further) ECB intervention in bond markets; and has adopted a 50% steel tariff. “We are innocent bystanders of policy decisions made in Washington and of portfolio allocation decisions made worldwide, which we don’t have much influence over,” Lagarde said in Paris. “It is not a sustainable position. We cannot remain a passive safe haven, absorbing the shocks created elsewhere. We need to be a currency that shapes its own destiny.” There would be global agreement on the “bystanders” part, not so much on the rest – or at least not without actions that run counter to all Europe’s liberal world order instincts. What odds will the market give of Lagarde succeeding in making a European currency matter globally again in a contested geopolitical environment: 50-1?

Over the Channel, Tory party Shadow Justice Secretary Jenrick is “accused of fuelling ‘toxic nationalism’ with Birmingham claims”, says the Guardian; yet ‘Grassroots Tories want pact with Reform, poll finds’, claims the Telegraph. Ceteris paribus, that would deliver around 50% of the UK vote, all but guaranteeing a Farage-led government with a large working majority. Then what? That’s still a hypothetical for now, but one markets may start to take more seriously ahead.

In the meantime, Adam Tooze is arguing ‘Britain needs a ‘whatever it takes’ moment’. Yet if the BOE goes MMT with markets in this mood, and with the UK running a vast trade deficit, how does that pan out for Sterling and the long end of the curve? Or, if the whole yield curve is ‘whatever it taken’ by the BOE, just for Sterling? Indeed, how does such a radical policy step work without a matching UK industrial policy and tariffs, which in turn requires an energy policy and an overarching geopolitical strategy re: trade blocs, etc? One sees why Martin Wolf prefers his own patent brand of nostalgia – it’s far easier to digest.