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Chicago Police Told Officers “No Units Will Respond” As Protesters “Surrounded” Federal Agents: Report

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Chicago Police Told Officers “No Units Will Respond” As Protesters “Surrounded” Federal Agents: Report

Update (2004ET):

Fox News’ Bill Melugin reported that Border Patrol agents who were “surrounded” by protesters following a vehicle-ramming attack in the Chicago metro area yesterday had requested local police assistance, which was reportedly rejected by the top brass of the local police force. It remains unclear whether the rejection was due to a shortage of officers or a genuine refusal, given the hostility that the sanctuary city, controlled by radical leftists, has shown toward the Trump administration.

“Prigg v. Pennsylvania said states could decline to help federal law enforcement — not obstruct it. Today’s sanctuary jurisdictions have turned “non-cooperation” into active interference, allowing street militias to block ICE. It’s no longer federalism, It’s nullification,” Fox News’ Will Ricciardella wrote on X. 

The National Fraternal Order of Police condemned the top leadership of the Chicago Police for prohibiting officers from assisting Border Patrol agents in an urgent time of need. 

“Details are still emerging, but it appears that officers from the Chicago Police Department were ordered not to assist a group of ICE agents while they were physically threatened by what appeared to be an angry mob,” Patrick Yoes, National President of the Fraternal Order of Police, wrote in a statement, adding, “Let me be clear, both the National FOP and the Illinois FOP believe that when an officer calls for assistance, you answer, no matter what.”

Listen. 

Hostility from radical leftist Gov…

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A federal judge has temporarily blocked the Trump administration from deploying roughly 200 Oregon National Guard troops to Portland, halting plans to protect federal assets and personnel amid Antifa-linked attacks on an ICE facility in the southern part of the metro area. Meanwhile, the White House is preparing to send up to 300 Guard troops to crime-ridden Chicago to combat left-wing agitators and assist federal efforts to deport criminal illegal aliens amid attacks over the weekend.

U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut stated on Saturday that there was “no evidence” that protests in the city amounted to a rebellion or significantly hindered law enforcement, and that the White House’s justification was “untethered to the facts,” according to Reuters. The injunction will remain in place until at least October 18, pending further litigation.

“The President’s determination was simply untethered to the facts,” Immergut wrote.

What are the facts, Immergut?

Here are some of the latest:

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Reuters, “President Trump exercised his lawful authority to protect federal assets and personnel in Portland following violent riots and attacks on law enforcement — we expect to be vindicated by a higher court.” 

The White House filed a notice of appeal to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals late Saturday night. 

Portland Mayor Keith Wilson told reporters that his city was peaceful and “this narrative was manufactured.”

Yet local police appear to be protecting domestic terrorists, such as Antifa warriors, while arresting journalists and conservatives:

What Democrats fear…

Oregon’s Democratic Attorney General Dan Rayfield filed the lawsuit after Trump announced plans to deploy troops to Portland to “protect federal immigration facilities from domestic terrorists.”

The state argued the action unlawfully seized control of its National Guard and violated the 10th Amendment, emphasizing that Portland’s protests have been peaceful. Immergut agreed that Oregon is likely to prevail, warning that Trump’s legal approach could allow a president to deploy troops “virtually anywhere at any time,” thereby undermining the separation of civil and military authority.

Meanwhile, leftist Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois on Saturday warned that President Trump was preparing to send 300 Guard troops to Chicago in the very near term. 

And take a look at the chaos just yesterday in the crime-ridden sanctuary city… 

“Law enforcement under siege in Chicago as agitators hurl rocks, bottles at federal vehicles departing violent protest near scene of apparent coordinated attack on ICE officers in Brighton Park earlier today,” Border Hawk wrote on X. 

Kristi Noem, the Secretary of Homeland Security, wrote on X, “Today in Chicago, members of our brave law enforcement were attacked—rammed and boxed in by ten vehicles, including an attacker with a semi-automatic weapon. I am deploying more special operations to control the scene. Reinforcements are on their way. If you see a law enforcement officer today, thank them.” 

Chaos. 

Headlines:

. . . 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 20:04

Three-Dimensional Geopolitical Chess

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Three-Dimensional Geopolitical Chess

Authored & Submitted by Terry Cowan

Okay, reach for your tin foil hats and let’s stroll down the Conspiratorial Rabbit Trail. Ready, Everyone? Here goes:

When the Special Military Operation began in early 2022, during the 8th year of fighting in Ukraine, the new aspect of the conflict was cast strictly in terms of Democracy vs. Autocracy; valiant Ukraine holding back the onslaught of Russian tyranny; or the defense of Western democratic values against dark barbarism from the East; or the Rules-Based International Order against the forces of Chaos, etc. etc. No one talks that way today, unless it is Kalla Kallas, or the Lithuanian prime minister, Keith Kellogg, or cringingly recently by King Charles III. I suppose Anthony Blinken would, if he had access to a microphone. But he doesn’t.

The problem is, of course, that liberal democracy did not turn out to be the Fukuyamaian End of History that it was purported to be. (In February 2022, before my current views had quite solidified, I distinctly remember thinking, however, “Oh, History is back.”) The decline of democracy, so-stated, is most pronounced where its horn is tooted the most: Europe. Orwell predicted rightly, all political animals are equal, but some political animals are more equal than others. Don’t ask questions in Romania. Or Moldova. Running as an AfD candidate in Germany can get you fitted for a coffin in no time flat. And don’t even get me started on the U.K., where the governing elites are certifiably insane, and whose Prime Minister I’ve recently heard characterized as Tony Blair’s sock-puppet.

Real political expression can often seem more vibrant in the vilified countries–Russia, Hungary, Slovakia–though it may not translate to real political options. But no matter, dissent is decidedly not welcome in the European Parliament. Just ask Georgia what happens when you try to chart an independent course, based on your own country’s national interest. And of course, there is that bastion of freedom itself, Ukraine, where, if you are a man under 60 years of age, you don’t dare emerge from your flat, even if wheelchair-bound.

A friend characterized it thusly: “Ukraine is being not so much governed, as torn up at her beleaguered roots, by a bloodthirsty power-drunk drug-addicted neoliberal narcissist clown.” A clown, I might add, who is still allowed to address the United Nations. Anyone, (Simon Tisdall in today’s Guardian, for example) still repeating the Democracy vs. Tyranny narrative is simply not a serious person; to be avoided at cocktail parties and whose blatherings are to be dismissed out of hand.

As any reader here knows, I prefer Realist interpretations, best stated by John Mearsheimer, to-wit: Projection of Western hegemony vs. Russia’s “Red Line” (Eastward expansion of NATO vs. Russia’s defense of their Western border.) Realism rejects the view of NATO as a benign defensive alliance, which collapses in the face of even a cursory view of actual history. Russians had good reasons for viewing it as an existential threat directed at them, which of course it was.

The eastward march of NATO, the coup d’etat of 2014, the creeping NATOization of Ukraine in late 2021—all in the face of repeated, consistent, and increasingly urgent warnings from Moscow–do not need to be recounted again here. The real agenda was not, of course, the incorporation of what was demonstrably the most corrupt nation in Europe into NATO, but rather the destablization of Russia itself. For the Empire of the West, regime change is always on the agenda. Always. And so it will be until the Empire falls.

The idea, it seems, was always to overthrow the Russian government and/or oversee the establishment of a compliant one (a la Ukraine), and perhaps break the country up into more manageable bits. Once this was accomplished, we could turn our full attention to China. If this was indeed the plan, it has been a failure of yet unimagined and colossal magnitude that it indeed heralds the death of the Empire itself. Or so I thought.

Tin-foil hats secured? Consider this: What if the ultimate plan was never to defeat Russia at all? For it has rarely been done; the Golden Horde almost pulled it off some 800 years ago, and Sweden scored some victories for a season over 400 years ago. We expect such fantastical thinking from the EU elites (and Fredreich Merz, who raises no alarms by speaking of rearming Germany again.) But I would expect there to be at least a few objective students of History within the bowels of our Permanent State. Rather, what if the immediate plan is the the defeat of Europe, not Russia; reducing it to permanent vassal state status? There are three main ways in which this is being accomplished:

  1. Ditch the inexpensive Russian oil that had been the foundation of Europe’s prosperity in recent decades. Beginning with their destruction of NordStream, this lengthy cutting-off-of-the-nose-to-spite-the-face is now nearly complete. The governing elites (save Hungary, Slovakia and Turkey) have convinced themselves that they will get cooties if they use “cheap Russian oil.” Instead they have opted for much more expensive fuel from us, and from…the Russians, after it has been first filtered through India. This is decimating economies and leaving many people struggling to survive. But no matter, their moral purity and “European values” are intact.

  1. Deplete all European weapons stockpiles, throwing them heedlessly into the Black Hole of Ukraine. Of course the European elites cannot shake their Ukraine addiction because a) Zelensky wants more and they cannot refuse their creation, who might get angry with them; and b) they believe if Russia defeats Ukraine, they will come after Europe next. On the second point, one should ask for some empirical evidence. Unfortunately, there is none. Russia seems single-mindedly intent on securing its western border, and displays no apparent interest in what lies beyond. Indeed, what does Russia want with the meager crumbs of Europe, when a sumptious feast is being laid in the East? No matter, this story continues to be repeated to justify the ongoing bankrupting of Europe. They cannot manufacture the weapons Zelensky demands, so they must buy overpriced weaponry from the United States. And so, the engines of Empire are stoked. (One side point: NATO buying weapons from the U.S. is largely the U.S./NATO buing weapons from the U.S. Look for this twist to change, if it ever comes to it.)

  1. As the President has made clear in recent pronouncements, Europe will bear ALL the cost for prolonging the war. Nothing prevents any one of the European governing elites from picking up the phone and calling the Kremlin, and beginning a dialogue. But that will never happen. The war must go on in the vain hope of eventually, somehow, tricking the U.S. into a long-lasting commitment to Europe (through Ukraine.) So what looms ahead for Europe? Certainly not prosperity. Civil unrest and bankruptcy seem on order, as Europe settles-in to being part American vassal-state, part “open-air museum.”

So, if this is the plan, I must say that it is succeeding beyond anyone’s wildest imagination. And the Russians have been exceedingly helpful. Russian tanks rolling across the steppes in traditional fashion would have alarmed Europeans and galvanized a true, unified response. Instead, Moscow pursues a slow and steady war of attrition, one that a) churns up the Ukrainian army, b) protects its own soldiers, and c) doesn’t unduly alarm the Europeans (despite their paranoid rhetoric.) For those of us who review the battle lines every day, there is no great sweep of territory underway (leading neocon dead-enders Lindsay Graham and Keith Kellogg to assert that the line is stalemated and/or Ukraine is actually winning.)

The Russians move forward, one field at a time. They protect their troops, the casualty figures whispered from Zelensky to Kellogg to DJT are works of upside-down fantasy fiction. The Russian army resists directly assaulting a town, preferring to encircle it with giant pincher movements. I’ve watched it again and again, and is now being played out in Povrovsk, Kostyantynivka, Siversk, and Kupyansk. Of course, Zelensky allows no retreat, ever. And so, they more or less fight to the last Ukrainian, in the killing fields of these cauldrons. By some estimates, Ukraine has lost 1.7 million men. Another 250,000 have deserted.

Donald Trump’s recent Truth Social post is a curious piece in this scenario. If he meant what he said, then that does not speak well for him; showing him to be either be a fool or, as has been judged by some, as simply believing the last person he talked to; in this case, a 7-minute conversation with Zelensky. But, as is almost universally understood now (even by European leaders, in private), this was a work of deep sarcasm. But that is troubling as well. There is no diplomacy here. And there is no courage, only manipulation and evasion. I give DJT credit for often being shrewd, but he is never courageous, too given to trying to please everyone.

He deduces that since some claim Ukraine is winning, then the U.S. is not needed anymore; that Europe can supply whatever arms they do need, and that the U.S. will be happy to sell those weapons to them. In short, the U.S. has no strategic interest in this conflict, and leaves it to the European continent to sort out. This could have been stated straight-forwardly, repeatedly, beginning on 20 January 2025. DJT thinks Ukraine’s coming defeat will thus be blamed on Europe (I’m not too sure of that). The United States has its own problems, but in this scenario, will emerge in much better shape than the Europeans, responsible for the hollowed-out husk of Ukraine.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 19:50

“We’re At A Tipping Point” – Trucking Industry Facing “Horrible” Rates, Tariffs, Werner CEO Says

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“We’re At A Tipping Point” – Trucking Industry Facing “Horrible” Rates, Tariffs, Werner CEO Says

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves,

At the WEX OTR Summit, Derek Leathers, chairman and CEO of Werner Enterprises, warned of tight capacity and higher operating costs in the trucking industry.

“We’re at a tipping point,” Leathers told attendees. “Capacity is leaving the market little by little. The industry needs significant rate increases to sustain itself. This isn’t just about survival — it’s about making sure trucking can continue to deliver America’s goods safely and reliably in the years ahead.”

WEX, a global commerce platform that simplifies the business of running a business, held its summit Wednesday through Friday in San Antonio, Texas.

The event brought together over 150 leaders from the over-the-road trucking industry for two days of insight, innovation and collaboration.

With the theme of “The Road Ahead,” this year’s summit features keynotes, and strategic discussions on the trends shaping transportation, including fuel management, fraud protection, payments technology and more.

The second day of the conference featured a keynote address from Leathers, who cited weak rates, new tariffs, driver shortages and cargo theft as key risks — even as nearshoring fuels U.S.–Mexico trade growth.

Leathers, whose company is one of the largest U.S. trucking and logistics providers, noted that freight rates have been challenging in recent years, leaving many small carriers unable to reinvest in equipment or operations.

Omaha-based Werner Enterprises was founded in 1956 and has around 8,000 trucks and over 24,000 trailers. The company provides service across North America.

“What’s going on in the freight environment right now? Obviously, rates have been depressed, and although it is stable, they are stably horrible for the most part over the last several years, well below people’s operating costs in many cases. At a minimum, not a reinvestable rate level,” Leathers said.

Tim Hampton, left, general manager and senior vice president of WEX over-the-road and WEX Capital, and Derek Leathers, the chairman and CEO of Werner, during the presentation, “State of the Road: Navigating the Economy and Opportunities Ahead” on Thursday

With Class 8 truck orders at historic lows and OEMs scaling back production, he predicted it could take years to rebuild manufacturing capacity, leading to higher truck prices “at the time we can least afford for them to be more expensive.”

Tariffs squeeze supply chains

Tariffs were another key focus of his address. Leathers cautioned that only about half of the tariff impact has reached consumers so far, with the rest absorbed by suppliers and retailers — a strain he expects will increasingly filter through the supply chain. 

He also raised concerns over new tariffs on trucks made in Mexico, despite USMCA’s trade protections, arguing they will further inflate equipment costs.

“On the truck side, two thirds of all or three fourths of all truck makers actually exist and make their trucks in Mexico. If I had been betting on this stage a year ago, I would have lost that bet because I would have said that USMCA would supersede and that there would be no additional tariffs on trucks from our neighbors. Clearly that is not the case as we stand here today,” Leathers said.

Leathers also highlighted the industry’s growing safety and compliance challenges, including renewed enforcement of English-language proficiency rules for CDL holders and the scrutiny of B-1 visa drivers operating cross-border routes. 
Nearshoring strengthens U.S.–Mexico trade

Looking at broader trends, he pointed to nearshoring as a lasting shift that will deepen U.S.–Mexico trade ties. Werner already moves more than 300 cross-border loads daily, a number he expects to grow as U.S. companies boost investment in Mexico.

“Mexico is the only neighboring country or even nearshoring option that actually has good demographics,” Leathers said. “Very few places in the world do and Mexico actually does have as many people coming into the population. as they’re losing from the population and that’s true for the next 10 to 20 years.”

Cargo theft and supply chain security

Beyond the macroeconomic headwinds, Leathers also addressed rising cargo theft, calling it a “terrifying” trend fueled by organized crime. He urged shippers and carriers to strengthen vetting and technology safeguards to protect supply chains.

“Cargo theft has continued to rise. I think when you see a population that feels underdressed, that’s when risky behavior seems to always increase over time,” Leathers said.

“I think this is an area where not having proper vetting of every single man or woman on the road makes a difference. We know factually speaking from the FBI and others, there are in fact many criminal organizations outside the United States that are heavily involved in this work. There are organizations inside the U.S. as well, but the numbers are staggering.”

Trucking leaders say data will drive sustainable freight

Executives from FedEx, J.B. Hunt, and NFI Industries said the trucking industry’s path to sustainability hinges on efficiency and data-driven reporting, as customers and regulators press for greater transparency.

Speaking at the “Driving Green with Data: Executive Insights on Sustainability and Reporting” panel on Thursday, FedEx Express executive Mickey Black highlighted the company’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality by 2040. 

“That commitment gave the entire organization a clear mandate,” Black said.

J.B. Hunt’s Jared Mounce outlined the carrier’s 32% greenhouse gas intensity reduction target by 2034, stressing that intensity goals better reflect efficiency as freight volumes grow.

NFI’s Alexa Branco emphasized the importance of tracking fuel consumption, idling, and emissions intensity to prove ROI and prepare for stricter reporting.

Panelists agreed shippers increasingly require emissions reporting in contracts, some now demanding lane- or package-level detail.

Sarah Booth, director, Sawatch Labs; Alexa Branco, director of sustainability, NFI Industries; Mickey Black, managing director global vehicles and surface fuel, FedEX; Jerrod Mounce, vice-president of energy & sustainability, J.B. Hunt at the WEX OTR Summit in San Antonio, Texas on Thursday. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 18:40

Nearly One-Third Of EV Charging Attempts Fail, Report Finds

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Nearly One-Third Of EV Charging Attempts Fail, Report Finds

By Thomas Wasson of FreightWaves

A newly released report by ChargerHelp! shows that while 64% of Americans now live within two miles of an electric vehicle charging station, nearly one-third of charging attempts fail. Despite charging infrastructure showing 98.7% to 99% uptime rates, only 71% of charging attempts actually succeed, according to the 2025 EV Charging Reliability Report.

The report analyzed more than 100,000 sessions across 2,400 chargers. The report argues that instead of focusing on site uptime statistics, the first-time charge success rate (FTCSR) provides a more accurate measure of the driver experience.

“Uptime tells us if a charger is available, but it doesn’t tell us if a driver can actually plug in and get a charge on the first attempt,” said Kameale Terry, CEO of ChargerHelp!, in an interview with FreightWaves. “First-time charge success captures the real driver experience, and by centering on this metric, the industry can close the gap between availability and usability and build the trust needed for mass adoption.”

The complexity of EV charging stems from multiple software systems that must work in harmony, explained Terry, who has nearly a decade of experience in the space.

“Charging stations and electric vehicles are literally computers,” Terry said. “It’s all about these handshakes and how one software understands another software. If you’ve ever been in the software space, then you probably know that sometimes software doesn’t really understand one another.”

When any of these systems sends out firmware or software updates, compatibility issues can arise. As Terry notes, “Sometimes it may create a bit of a wrinkle in that system … maybe the vehicle itself, the battery management system, doesn’t really understand what the charging station is asking of it.”

These technical barriers create real-world problems for EV operators. In one example, a fleet driver might arrive at a station showing a green “available” indicator, only to find that after plugging in, the station fails to initiate authentication or begins the process but returns to the available screen without completing a charge.

Unlike Tesla’s vertically integrated system, most charging infrastructure involves multiple companies developing separate software components for vehicles, hardware, charge management systems, payment processing and connectors. This fragmentation creates interoperability challenges that directly impact consumers.

The report also identified trends in infrastructure aging. Success rates drop from 85% after the first year at new stations to approximately 70% after three years. This often happens because older hardware cannot be upgraded to newer protocols without significant equipment replacement.

“With older stations, some architecturally inside the unit itself cannot be upgraded to the new protocol,” Terry explained. “You would actually have to deploy a new piece of equipment into that unit in order to update it.”

This creates an added wrinkle for site owners using legacy infrastructure. While new vehicles are tested with current charging stations before deployment, they aren’t typically tested with older charging infrastructure, creating potential compatibility gaps.

Another challenge is regulatory oversight limitations. Unlike gasoline pumps, which undergo regular inspections by state authorities, EV charging stations face limited regulatory supervision. While weights and measures departments do monitor publicly deployed charging stations, their focus is primarily on ensuring consumers receive the electrons they’re paying for, not overall system reliability.

“Even if the station isn’t functioning at all, you wouldn’t get your sticker. They’re more so making sure that you’re not cheating the consumer,” Terry explained, adding that private fleet charging infrastructure falls outside this regulatory framework entirely.

The report recommends three key industry improvements: adopting FTCSR as a central metric, implementing preventive maintenance programs rather than relying on short-term hardware fixes, and establishing a collaborative industry approach to standardize protocols and share data.

Despite these challenges, Terry remains optimistic about the future. “It’s a solvable problem,” she said. “Even gas cars, switching from the horse and buggy to gasoline cars … was not an easy thing. But somebody figured it out. We got roadways, we got vehicles, and now we’re inside of this new kind of transition.”

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 17:30

Cartels Dox, Set $10K Bounties To Kill US Immigration Officials: DHS

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Cartels Dox, Set $10K Bounties To Kill US Immigration Officials: DHS

Cartels have doxxed and put bounties of the heads of several federal immigration officials – offering $10,000 to kill or $2,000 to capture them, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem revealed on Sunday. She did not specify whether the bounties applied to a particular agency such as ICE, or the US Border Patrol.

“We have specific agents who have had bounties put out on their heads,” Noem told “Fox & Friends Weekend” earlier today. 

“It’s been $2,000 to kidnap them, $10,000 to kill them. They’ve released their pictures; they’ve sent them between their networks. It’s an extremely dangerous and unprecedented situation.”

Via @QueenDarbyy on X 

Noem did not reveal which specific groups were issuing the bounties, saying only “It is gangs, it is cartel members and known terrorist organizations.”

“They are making sure that they know which officers are out there and being extremely effective, and they want to take them down, because they want to try to stop the operations that are going that are that are keeping them from making money off their criminal networks.” 

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 16:55

All Talked Out?

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All Talked Out?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

This is not something I can say every day, but I feel “all talked out.” 

We just concluded our annual Annapolis Geopolitical Summit. Turnout was amazing as the summit grows year after year. We covered a range of topics, with not only our Generals and Admirals (ret.) contributing, but also the influence from our former CIA officers and some of the industry specialists who participated in the summit was keenly felt. Clients were also able to share their insights.

Prior to the summit, I had the pleasure of having dinner in DC with the Under Secretary of War, Tony Tata, which was incredibly interesting.

I’m on my way to Toronto to take my father to watch the Blue Jays play the Yankees. Then off to Chicago and Milwaukee as we have numerous meetings and events planned. A really exciting time here.

So Many Narratives

If you missed last weekend’s Meandering Through the Narratives, that is worth a gander. We covered the i-shaped economy. Something we think will gain traction as being more “accurate” than either the K or k-shaped economy.

Russia’s frozen € reserves. That is the new twist as the administration (and potentially Europe) ramps up their pushback on Putin. This could be a pivotal moment for Europe (and the bond market).

A few of the topics deserve a bit more time.

Peace Through Strength

Peace Through Strength remains a theme. Our GIG (Geopolitical Intelligence Group) had a lot of thoughts on the 10-points announced in Quantico on Tuesday and the overall messaging. I think we are all digesting it, but my quick takeaways were:

  • Some GIG members who I thought would have been against much of what occurred, were not, and vice versa.
  • The points listed, in and of themselves, were not overly controversial.
  • One risk, that was pointed out multiple times, is that while physical fitness, etc., is important, much of what drives a modern military is “brain power” and we would be remiss to create a culture that pushes out brain power. Nothing in particular happened on that front, but it is something to think about.
  • While a “corporate rebranding” comparison remains valid, maybe some of the messaging and tone was possibly “more aggressive” than necessary?
  • There was little support for the “enemy within” tone as the GIG, collectively, views the military (from senior officers to the lowest ranking soldier) as working together for the good of the services and the country.

ProSec

Production for Security. You might be surprised by how many tickers are being thrown at me. Every day it seems (because it probably is every day) that someone is sending me a new ticker to look at as a candidate for what we have been calling ProSec™. In last weekend’s report we wanted to make it clear, that yes, like many, we have concerns about longer-term ramifications and would like to see governance issues more clearly defined, but for now, keep investing on the basis of this admin taking new approaches to jump-start technologies and industries deemed critical to national security (which can also be described as critical to preparing for trade negotiations once again with China a couple of years down the road).

It is fun to watch (and fun to learn about) as these tickers are tossed our way, and also fun to profit from this view that hasn’t caught on (at least not as a slogan), but is working extremely well.

Electron Production

The shift from molecules to electrons, which Mike Rodriguez (our Head of Sustainable Finance and a decorated Marine) helped me to use as a phrase, is “blowing up.”

Every serious conversation about AI and Data Centers “devolves” or “evolves” into a conversation about electron production (electricity for us “luddites”).

Electricity production came up during almost every conversation at the summit.

We had clients who helped us and provided information that we have just started to digest (and probably won’t really complete our review until after today’s baseball game). This is in addition to the copious work Mike Rodriguez has done and continues to do. 

I could keep going on now, but I’m not well enough prepared, and quite frankly, I am “talked out” so expect more on this later in the week.

Cyber

Cyber came up in interesting ways at the summit. Everyone “knows” about cyber risk. Everyone is “doing something” about cyber risk. But are we doing anywhere close to enough?

How do public and private entities work together to protect each other?

A lot of “wins” go undocumented, for good reason, so the fears may be overly inflated. Adequacy of response – true deterrence – was discussed in detail. 

I was a little surprised by the focus on cyber, but maybe because it is morphing from an “everyone knows” to “everyone is really trying to figure it out” stage.

Space

On the final day of the summit, we hosted a “war game.” It is an interesting opportunity to “role play” and think about things. One “twist” that was given to one of the groups, was a Chinese missile “knocking out” a U.S. satellite. 

Space as both an investment opportunity and a domain of war, is something we bring up periodically, but need to focus on more.

Government Shutdown

We suggested people Prepare for an Extended Shutdown. We are getting some pushback that a deal could come as early as this week. Given the sources, it is plausible, but I’m still in the camp that this is going to drag on, and we are going to see some “surprising” announcements. In my view, the people saying, “this will end soon” are playing “politics as usual” or following “traditional norms” and I’m not convinced that is the right way to look at things.

Bottom Line

I managed to fill 2 pages while being “talked out.”  lot is going on and this seems like an ideal time to develop scenarios for the major themes so you can react as they evolve!

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 16:20

Goldman On NatGas: “From US Congestion Concerns To Tight 2026” 

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Goldman On NatGas: “From US Congestion Concerns To Tight 2026” 

U.S. natural gas futures surged 17.3% last week, the largest weekly gain since early May. Goldman Sachs analysts offered context for the rally, noting that the market narrative has shifted “from U.S. storage congestion fears to tightening 2026 supply.”

A team of Goldman analysts led by Samantha Dart, senior energy strategist, explained that the jump in NatGas prices last week to nearly $3.5/mmBtu was largely due to the roll into the November “winter” contract, which carries stronger heating demand and lower storage congestion risk. 

$3.5/mmBtu resistance.

Dart explained that even beyond the rollover effect, two bullish forces supported the rally:

  • First, while the market seemed to be pricing in concerns that Gulf storage would face a congestion event over the past several weeks, such an event does not seem to have materialized. Henry Hub cash prices have held relatively well in the period, consistent with manageable weekly storage injections (Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 3). The weakest point for cash prices in the period, but which still held above $2.70/mmBtu, was the long Labor Day weekend, when demand softness from the holiday was exacerbated by significantly milder-than-average weather.

  • Second, U.S. liquefaction demand for gas has increased recently, with Venture Global’s Plaquemines’ gas pull now approaching its 3.6 Bcf/d capacity, while gas demand at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi expansion appears to have also stepped up (Exhibit 4). This has taken total U.S. gas demand for LNG exports to over 16.5 Bcf/d this week, the highest level since early August, and likely to rise sustainably above 17 Bcf/d by mid-Oct, when we expect Cove Point to return from maintenance.

  • On net, salt storage, which are the highest deliverability facilities in the U.S., has remained at a manageable level, including an atypical withdrawal last week reported today by the EIA. We note this may be offset next week by a combination of increasing production and reduced pipeline exit flows from the Gulf (largely driven by maintenance events), which could temporarily weigh on U.S. gas prices from current levels. However, we believe we are quickly approaching a period when the market’s focus will more sustainably shift towards 2026 tightness concerns. This is illustrated by the Cal26 strip settling this week above $4/mmBtu for the first time in two months. We maintain our $4.00/$4.60/mmBtu Nov-Dec25/Cal26 Henry Hub forecasts.

Dart’s chartpack:

*pic

Separately, the heating season is just around the corner, with about 42% of U.S. households (the top source, especially in the Midwest and Northeast)using NatGas for heating. 

Here comes the heating season. 

. . . 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 15:45

US Postal Service Mail Carrier Shot By Amazon Driver

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US Postal Service Mail Carrier Shot By Amazon Driver

By Eric Kullisch of FreightWaves

A U.S. Postal Service worker was shot in the face during an altercation Friday afternoon in Everett, Washington, and a rival package delivery driver is in custody, according to local police and a postal inspector.

The incident took place at the West Mall Place Apartments. The victim was transported to Providence Hospital with a gunshot wound, the Everett Police Department said in a Facebook post. He was transferred to Harbor View Medical Center in critical condition, Seattle TV station KOMO reported. 

Neighbors said the shooter was an Amazon delivery driver, according to KOMO and social media posts. TV footage showed an Amazon vehicle and USPS van behind police crime-scene tape and the Amazon van being towed away later.

“USPS workers don’t let people in the area when they have the mailboxes open. The Amazon driver didn’t particularly like that, they got into an argument, which escalated to a shoving match, which escalated to the Amazon driver shooting the USPS guy in the freaking eye!!! Then he sat there calmly and waited for the cops to show up and claimed self defense,” a poster named Rich Ryan said on Facebook.

KOMO quoted a U.S. postal inspector as saying the mail carrier was confronted by an individual and the carrier was shot in the face. 

The U.S. Postal Inspection Service and the FBI are also investigating the case. The suspect was booked into Snohomish County jail, KOMO said.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 15:10

“Two Bullets To The Head”: Dem AG Nominee Jay Jones Fantasized About Shooting Republican Lawmaker

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“Two Bullets To The Head”: Dem AG Nominee Jay Jones Fantasized About Shooting Republican Lawmaker

President Trump on Truth Social called on “radical leftist lunatic” Democratic Virginia Attorney General nominee Jay Jones to step down after leaked text messages surfaced showing him creepily fantasizing about killing a Republican lawmaker and his children. This shocking revelation comes after years of Democrats labeling Trump and MAGA supporters as “fascists,” “Nazis,” and “racists,” even as armed left-wing extremists have ramped up attacks on conservatives, from the attack on a Minnesota Catholic church to the political assassination of Charlie Kirk. 

“It has just come out that the Radical Left Lunatic, Jay Jones, who is running against Jason Miyares, the GREAT Attorney General in Virginia, made SICK and DEMENTED jokes, if they were jokes at all, which were not funny, and that he wrote down and sent around to people, concerning the murdering of a Republican Legislator, his wife, and their children,”  Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

The president continued, “Abigail Spanberger, who is running for Governor, is weak and ineffective, and refuses to acknowledge what this Lunatic has done. Even Democrats are saying it is “RESIGNATION FROM CAMPAIGN” TERRITORY. Democrat Jay Jones should drop out of the Race, IMMEDIATELY, and the People of Virginia must continue to have a GREAT Attorney General in Jason Miyares who, by the way, has my Complete and Total Endorsement — JASON WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”

Jones’s violent text messages about former Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert are disgusting and dangerous rhetoric and underscore the broader hate messaging by the Democratic Party, which has spent years creating target profiles on conservatives by labeling them “fascists” and “Nazis.” In other words, the left has normalized assassination culture against their political enemies. 

“Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot.” Jones wrote. “Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.”

Republican candidate for Virginia Governor Winsome Earle-Sears pushed out a new ad…

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) called on embattled attorney general hopeful Jones “step away from this campaign in disgrace“…

Correct. 

Again, Jones’ violent rhetoric is a broader symptom of the Democratic Party’s hate messaging that normalizes the assassination culture of their political enemies. 

And why are Democrats doing this? Because their armed left-wing groups “are planning war against fascists.” Do you see what’s happening?

The rise of left-wing-fueled civil terrorism is already underway. Even Pelosi said Democrats “Won’t Be Responsible” for the years of her party spewing violent rhetoric against Trump. 

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 14:35

Is Nuclear The Key To Powering The Data Center Boom

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Is Nuclear The Key To Powering The Data Center Boom

Nainish Gupta is director of renewable energy certificate portfolio and regulatory compliance at POWWR.

The Three Mile Island nuclear power plant on the outskirts of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, is the site of the worst commercial nuclear accident in U.S. history. The 1979 calamity, which released radioactive material into the environment, cast nuclear energy as a dangerous endeavor that few organizations pursued. Now, after years of plants shutting down, nuclear energy is experiencing a renaissance.

Three Mile Island will be restarted in 2027 as the Crane Clean Energy Center, in part to power data centers after a power purchase agreement with Microsoft. Meta also saved a nuclear plant in Illinois that was in danger of closing after signing a 1.1 GW deal. These two major deals signal a growing trend of hyperscalers embracing nuclear power and driving forward expansive new growth.

Three Mile Island

While nuclear offers stable power with low-carbon emissions, the potential for it to truly reshape the energy market and fulfill the promise of a renaissance requires overcoming complex operational, financial and workforce challenges.

Data centers driving the demand

Recent policy support from the Trump administration has accelerated nuclear development at a new speed, but the increased investment has been on the horizon for years. In 2023, under the Biden administration, the U.S. joined more than 20 other countries in a pledge to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 to reach climate goals. Countries have been trying to figure out how to feed a surging demand for energy across the world without hurting the environment, and they’ve turned to nuclear power to fulfill that need.

But what’s different about the surge we’re seeing now is the sheer pace at which companies want to get these plants up and running again. They’re trying to keep up with demand to power the data centers needed to support the explosive growth in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. According to Goldman Sachs, AI alone will drive a 165% increase in power demand for data centers in the next five years.

The demand for this power has created a unique dynamic where tech companies are willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in upgrading nuclear facilities that have been offline for years in exchange for long-term power purchase agreements. Unlike traditional utility customers, these companies can sign decades-long contracts that justify the substantial upfront investments required to bring aging nuclear infrastructure back online.

The realities of bringing plants back online

There are 94 operating nuclear reactors in the United States and 18 reactors that are retired or are in the process of retiring. Almost half of the retired/retiring reactors are currently undergoing Nuclear Regulatory Commission evaluation to restart. The rest are older and would be too costly to touch. But even so, the ones that could be restarted have been mothballed for years and require hundreds of millions of dollars in upgrades and a lengthy project timeline to be powered up again.

Think about any building that has been boarded up for at least five years. No matter the condition, repairs, upgrades, and inspections are needed. That need is exacerbated at a highly specialized and sensitive building like a nuclear power plant. Decommissioned facilities need to restore operating licenses, meet regulatory compliance standards, and fix a major vulnerability: the lack of modern cybersecurity standards.

The environment we’re in now of sophisticated cyber threats is a whole new world compared to when some of these older plants last operated. Cyberattacks on U.S. utilities reportedly jumped 70% last year. Major upgrades need to be put in place so the plants aren’t left vulnerable to bad actors.

Another bottleneck is the supply chain. The capacity to produce uranium rods was scaled back during nuclear’s decline, and rebuilding this manufacturing infrastructure will take time. These are not components that can be quickly sourced from existing inventory; they require specialized facilities and rigorous quality controls.

An equally daunting challenge is human capital. Most experienced nuclear power plant operators retired when facilities shut down over the past decade, taking all of that institutional knowledge with them. Training new operators won’t happen overnight. These are highly specialized positions requiring extensive certification and experience with complex safety protocols. The situation is further complicated by competition from other sectors offering better incentives for nuclear engineers, making it difficult for utilities to attract and retain talent.

Why a broader energy mix still matters

Once the industry gets past these obstacles, even the most optimistic nuclear scenarios cannot eliminate the need for a diverse energy portfolio. Though some natural gas and renewable power projects back off during this time, we’ve also seen continued growth. In Texas, the state’s energy fund just approved its first loan to fund a 122-megawatt natural gas power plant that is projected to begin operations by 2027.

A surge of investment in nuclear power does not mean that it will take over all other resources. Different technologies serve different purposes for grid operations. Nuclear provides excellent baseload power, but grids also need flexible generation that can ramp up and down quickly to match demand fluctuations. Solar and wind, despite their intermittency challenges, remain cost-effective for many applications and will continue to play essential roles in the energy mix.

Even where nuclear development is feasible, the long lead time for a plant to become operational means that other technologies must fill the gap during the years-long transition period. Energy security requires multiple sources operating in concert rather than betting everything on a single technology.

Reshaping the energy market and future financing

Data centers have handed nuclear something it’s rarely had: customers willing to pay upfront for guaranteed power over the long haul. Instead of hoping subsidies stick around, companies are putting money behind their need for reliable electricity. It creates a financing model built on genuine market demand. If this proves successful, it could shape the future financing of projects from industries beyond tech companies.

With this demand bolstering the industry, the major concern is that projects to restart nuclear plants will be sped up to keep pace. But they cannot be rushed. Success will require policy support, sustained investment in workforce development, reinforcing the supply chain, and patience to deal with inevitable delays and cost overruns that characterize major infrastructure projects.

The real test will come in the next decade as these ambitious projects move from announcements to actual construction and operation. Nuclear’s capabilities remain promising, but rushing toward unrealistic timelines could undermine the very renaissance it seeks to achieve.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/05/2025 – 14:00

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