Authored by Benjamin Bartee via PJMedia.com,

Because Illinois apparently doesn’t have any more pressing matters of governance to attend to, such as rampant gun crime in the city of Chicago, Governor JB Pritzker recently announced a historic, “first of its kind” “legal hotline that expands access to legal information and support for LGBTQIA+ individuals across Illinois.”

Via Illinois Department of Human Services (emphasis added):

Governor JB Pritzker announced yesterday the launch of IL Pride Connect, a new statewide resource hub and first of its kind legal hotline that expands access to legal information and support for LGBTQIA+ individuals across Illinois. The Illinois Department of Human Services (IDHS), in collaboration with community partners, will lead the initiative. Governor Pritzker made the announcement at an event Thursday evening hosted by the Legal Council for Health Justice.

“In Illinois, we are fighting ignorance with information and cruelty with compassion, said Governor JB Pritzker. “Thanks to our state, philanthropic, and community partners, IL Pride Connect will inform individuals of their rights and connect them to health and social services support – making us the only state in the nation to provide free legal advice and advocacy tools to protect the LGBTQ community.”

The press release — I counted — is 1,056 words long. I read through all of it, looking for mention of any specific right that the transgenders are allegedly being denied.

There is nothing; the whole document is a word salad of subcultural jargon and lofty-sounding rhetoric about “the unique challenges LGBTQIA+ people face in today’s environment.”

Continuing:

LGBTQIA+ communities are facing an unprecedented wave of legal and policy attacks from the current federal administration. These changes are not only harmful – they are cruel and dehumanizing, stripping individuals of their rights, dignity, and access to essential services like healthcare and education. IL Pride Connect was created to meet this moment….

IL Pride Connect includes a digital resource hub with legal FAQs, know-your-rights information, referrals to affirming legal and community services, and advocacy tools. It also includes a first of its kind legal hotline that operates Monday through Thursday, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., and provides real-time information and referrals, including on name and gender marker changes, housing and education rights, and access to healthcare and public benefits*…

“Access to up-to-date, vetted information and resources that address the unique challenges LGBTQIA+ people face in today’s environment is critical and lifesaving work,” said Gillian Knight, Program Manager of Learning & Evaluation, Healthy Communities Foundation.

*All of these rights — equity in housing, public benefits, etc. irrespective of so-called gender identity — are already enshrined in Illinois state law.

Via Illinois Department of Human Rights (emphasis added):

All individuals in Illinois have a right to be free from discrimination on the basis of their gender identity. Contrary to recent federal attempts to roll back civil and human rights, the Illinois Human Rights Act (Act) continues to provide broad civil rights protections for transgender, nonbinary, and gender nonconforming people in the areas of employment, real estate transactions (housing), financial credit, and places of public accommodation (including healthcare and schools).

The Illinois Department of Human Rights (IDHR) enforces the Act to protect persons of all gender identities from discrimination, harassment, and retaliation.  Violations of the Act are investigated by IDHR and may be adjudicated by the Illinois Human Rights Commission (IHRC) or by the courts. A person may file a charge (complaint) with IDHR if they believe they have been discriminated against or harassed based on their gender identity.  Under the Act, a person is also protected from retaliation for activities such as reporting discrimination or filing a charge.

But let’s not let facts get in the way of virtue-signaling in the culture war as a way to score cheap political points with the blue-hairs.

After a strong August, DB’s Peter Sidorov writes that risk assets are starting September on a more tentative footing as Friday’s tech-led sell off on Wall Street has continued across most of Asia this morning although it has since stabilized. With rising Fed rate cut pricing supporting markets of late, investors will be keenly watching whether this is validated by the upcoming US payrolls release on Friday and subsquent negative revisions on Sept 9. The bar to derail a Fed rate cut on September 17 is extremely high (the real question is whether the cut is 25bps or 50), but with fed funds futures now pricing over 140bps of easing by the end of 2026, markets are expecting an amount of easing that since the 1980s has only occurred around recessions.

Before we preview payrolls and the Fed in more detail, the major story of the weekend came as late on Friday a US federal appeals court ruled that tariffs introduced under International Economist Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, upholding an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade. However, in its 7-4 ruling the court left the tariffs in place until October 14 giving the administration time to appeal the case to the Supreme Court. And while a majority of judges in the appeals court ruling were nominated by Democrat Presidents, there is a 6-3 Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, and Trump’s tariffs are most likely to remain. Were IEEPA tariffs to be stuck down, this would invalidate most levies introduced this year, including the “reciprocal” country rates and the “fentanyl” tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, though the administration could look to implement more levies via other statutes.

Turning to the US payrolls print on Friday, DB’s economists expect a modest pick up in both headline (DBe +100k vs. 73k previously) and private (+100k vs. 83k) payrolls. They see the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, with a risk that it rounds down to 4.1%. With Powell leaning towards a near-term rate cut at Jackson Hole and markets now pricing an 87% chance of a September cut, it would likely take a huge payrolls outperformance to dissuade a September cut. However, a stable unemployment rate could alleviate fears of a material downshift in the labor market, keeping the Fed cautious on further rate cuts.

The payrolls release will be preceded by the JOLTS survey on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday, two labor market indicators that have been namechecked by Governor Waller, who last week suggested that a weak payrolls print could bring a 50bp September cut in play. Other Fed officials have been less dovish but have also noted labor market risks. We will see a few Fed speakers before the blackout window starts next weekend, including St. Louis Fed President Musalem (Wednesday), NY Fed President Williams (Thursday) and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (Thursday).

Beyond the Fedspeak, markets will be glued to the latest newsflow around President Trump’s attempted removal of Fed Governor Cook. Friday’s court hearing on the injunction to block Trump from firing her yielded no decision with further filings expected this Tuesday. In a note last week DB discussed the possible implications if Governor Cook were to be removed and Trump were to achieve a majority on the Federal Reserve Board. This Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee will also hold a hearing on Stephen Miran’s confirmation for the vacant Fed Board seat as the White House looks to have him confirmed in time for the September FOMC.

While US markets will be closed today for Labor Day, other US data highlights this week will include ISM manufacturing (Tuesday) and services (Thu) prints, with the employment components of the two series, which have slipped over the past couple of months, likely to draw attention. In Europe, the main data release will be the euro area flash August CPI print tomorrow. Following the major country prints on Friday, our European economists see headline inflation rising marginally to +2.06% YoY (vs 2.0% prev.) with core falling to +2.22% (vs 2.3% prev.).

The political situation in France will remain in focus ahead of the confidence vote scheduled on September 8. Prime Minister Bayrou’s minority government looks likely to lose this with major opposition parties repeating their intent to vote against the government over the weekend. In a note published on Friday (link), DB’s European economists outline the next key steps and likely paths forward and discuss the ECB’s likely reaction function to the situation in France.

Staying with geopolitics, the focus yesterday and today is on China hosting the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Yesterday China’s Xi Jinping met with India’s Narendra Modi, with the two sides pledging to “remain partners rather than rivals”. The summit has received extra attention amid Trump’s tariff pressure on Asian countries, and Modi will also meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin today, shortly after the US raised tariffs on India to 50% last week in response to its purchases of Russian oil.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday September 1

• Data: UK July net consumer credit, M4, Japan Q2 MoF survey, Italy August budget balance, manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, July unemployment rate, Eurozone July unemployment rate
• Other: US Labor Day holiday

Tuesday September 2

• Data: US August ISM index, July construction spending, Japan August monetary base, France July budget balance, Italy July PPI, Eurozone August CPI, Canada August manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: BoJ’s Himino speaks
• Earnings: Partners Group, Nio, Zscaler

Wednesday September 3

• Data: US July JOLTS report, factory orders, August total vehicle sales, UK August official reserves changes, Italy August services PMI, Eurozone July PPI, Canada Q2 labor productivity, Australia Q2 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Beige Book, Fed’s Musalem speaks, ECB’s Lagarde speaks, BoE’s Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor, Greene and Breeden speak
• Earnings: Salesforce, HPE, Figma, Gitlab, Dollar Tree, C3.ai

Thursday September 4

• Data: US August ADP report, ISM services, July trade balance, initial jobless claims, UK August new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany August construction PMI, Eurozone July retail sales, Canada July international merchandise trade, Switzerland and Sweden August CPIs
• Central banks: Fed’s Williams speaks, ECB’s Cipollone speaks, BoE’s DMP survey
• Earnings: Broadcom, Lululemon

Friday September 5

• Data: US August jobs report, UK July retail sales, Japan July labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany July factory orders, France July trade balance, current account balance, Italy July retail sales, Canada August jobs report
• Central banks: Fed’s Goolsbee speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, the JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including an event with New York Fed President Williams on Thursday. 

Monday, September 1 

• Labor Day holiday. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends that bond markets also close.

Tuesday, September 2 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, August final (consensus 53.3, last 53.3)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, August (GS 50.0, consensus 49.0, last 48.0): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 2.0pt to 50.0 in August, reflecting improvement in our manufacturing survey tracker (+1.2pt to 51.9) and a tailwind from residual seasonality.
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, July (GS flat, consensus -0.1%, last -0.4%)

Wednesday, September 3 

• 09:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at the Peterson Institute on the subject of the economy and monetary policy. Q&A is expected. On August 14, Musalem said that he expects “most of the impact of tariffs on inflation to fade in 6 to 9 months, but it could be more persistent.” He also noted that the “economy is around full employment,” and that “if the Fed were to weigh the labor market side more and reduce rates aggressively, that could lead to higher inflation expectations and be counterproductive.”
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, July (GS 7,450k, consensus 7,373k, last 7,437k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings were roughly unchanged at 7.45mn in July based on the signal from online job postings.
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, July (GS -1.2%, consensus -1.4%, last -4.8%); Durable goods orders, July final (GS -2.8%, consensus -2.8%, last -2.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, July final (consensus +1.1%, last +1.1%); Core capital goods orders, July final (last +1.1%); Core capital goods shipments, July final (last +0.7%)
• 02:00 PM Fed Releases Beige Book, September meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the July FOMC meeting period noted that five districts had reported modest increases in activity, five districts reported flat activity, and the remaining two districts reported modest declines in activity, representing an improvement over the previous report, and that uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to the evolution of labor demand and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, August (GS 16.0mn, consensus 16.1mn, last 16.4mn)

Thursday, September 4 

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, August (GS +100k, consensus +80k, last +104k)
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q2 final (GS +3.1%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.4%): Unit labor costs, Q2 final (GS +0.9%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.6%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 30 (GS 230k, consensus 230k, last 229k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 23 (consensus 1,960k, last 1,954k)
• 08:30 AM Trade balance, July (GS -$76.0bn, consensus -$78.0bn, last -$60.2bn): We forecast that trade balance widened by $15.8bn to $76.0bn in July, reflecting an increase in goods imports that more than offsets an increase in exports of travel services.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, August final (consensus 55.3, last 55.4)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, August (GS 51.5, consensus 50.9, last 50.1): We estimate that the ISM services index rebounded 1.4pt to 51.5 in August, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+0.9pt to 54.2) and a tailwind from residual seasonality.
• 11:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed president John Williams will speak at the Economic Club of New York on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and how to navigate a changing environment and uncertainty. On August 27, Williams said that “if [the real] neutral [rate] is 1% or a bit below, [the current monetary policy stance] is restrictive,” and that “at some point, it will be appropriate to move rates down.” He also noted that GDP growth has slowed and he expects the slowdown to continue.
• 05:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the mHub’s Industry Disruptor Series. On August 15, Goolsbee said, “We put a note of unease in the last CPI and PPI, with inflation picking up in categories that are not obviously transitory.” He also noted, “If we can assure ourselves or get a hint that for this meeting, or the meetings this fall, that we aren’t on an inflationary spiral that looks to be persistent, I still think it makes sense given the strength of the economy to move rates more back to where we think they’re going to settle.”

Friday, September 5 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, August (GS +60k, consensus +75k, last +73k); Private payroll employment, August (GS +80k, consensus +75k, last +83k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), August (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, : last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, August (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 60k in August. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a sequentially firmer—albeit still soft—pace of private sector job growth. On the negative side, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 20k decline in federal government payrolls and unchanged state and local government payrolls. Additionally, August payrolls have exhibited a consistent negative bias in initial prints over the last decade. We estimate that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% on a rounded basis (a low bar from an unrounded 4.248% in July), reflecting sequential easing in other measures of labor market slack, though see potential payback from a partial reversal of the spike in new entrant employment that boosted the unemployment rate in July. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting slightly positive calendar effects.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tens of thousands of people descended on a dry lakebed in Nevada over the past week, ending this weekend with the burning of a massive wooden sculpture shaped like a man. It was at that point, on Saturday night, that a man was found dead in a pool of blood, with authorities investigating it as a homicide. This is believed to be the first suspected homicide since Burning Man moved to the Black Rock Desert in 1990.

“The Pershing County Sheriff’s Office is investigating the death of a single white adult male that occurred the night of Saturday, August 30 in Black Rock City,” Burning Man officials wrote in a press release on its website. 

Sheriff Jerry Allen of the Pershing County Sheriff’s Office said deputies at Burning Man arrived at the scene around 9:14 pm local time Saturday and “found a single white adult male lying on the ground, obviously deceased.” 

AP News cited local officials who said the man was found “dead in a pool of blood and is being investigated as a homicide.”

Nicole Shanahan says America doesn’t just need reform—it needs an EXORCISM.

RFK Jr.’s 2024 running mate is holding NOTHING back.

She went to Burning Man for 8 years.

Now, she suspects Burning Man isn’t just a playground for the elites—it’s a playground for demons.

A week… pic.twitter.com/6g43CnWSse

— Holden Culotta (@Holden_Culotta) August 30, 2025

The Pershing County Sheriff’s Office noted that the homicide investigation appears to be a singular case but warned everyone at the festival to be vigilant of their surroundings and acquaintances. 

There have been several fatalities over the years, including accidents, medical emergencies, and even suicides. However, the incident this past weekend, occurring just as the large wooden effigy of a man began to burn, appears to be the first homicide at the festival.

In other festival news, Orgy Dome at Burning Man was pounded by a windstorm…

. . . 

Weeks after the Trump administration paused approvals of visitor visas for people of Gaza, the New York Times now reports that the administration has broadened the suspension to cover nearly all categories of visitor visas for Palestinian passport holders. 

NYT cited an August 18 State Department cable, sent to U.S. embassies and consulates abroad, detailing new sweeping measures that would bar many Palestinians from entering the U.S. on various types of non-immigrant visas. The cable was obtained by the media outlet and confirmed by four anonymous U.S. officials.

Impacted Palestinian visas include medical treatment, university studies, visits to friends or relatives, and business travel. 

U.S. consular officers have been instructed to invoke Section 221(g) of the Immigration Nationality Act (INA), a legal provision that allows them to refuse visa applications from Palestinian passport holders temporarily.

“Effective immediately, consular officers are instructed to refuse under 221(g) of the Immigration Nationality Act all otherwise eligible Palestinian Authority passport holders using that passport to apply for a non-immigrant visa,” the State Department cable said.

NYT spoke with Kerry Doyle, the former lead attorney for Immigration and Customs Enforcement under the Biden-Harris regime, who said the Trump administration should be open about its decision-making:

“If it’s a true ban, then it’s concerning to me in that they should be transparent about it and then make their arguments for the basis of such a ban.” 

Last month, the State Department halted visitor visas for the roughly two million Palestinians from Gaza. This came shortly after Laura Loomer called incoming flights a “national security threat …” 

The national security threat Loomer could be describing appears to come from one of her X posts: “We have been totally infiltrated by Islamic jihadists. The Palestinian movement is a terrorist movement.”

We have been totally infiltrated by Islamic jihadists.

The Palestinian movement is a terrorist movement. pic.twitter.com/kCr6c2TV2m

— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) May 25, 2025

Perhaps the scrutiny is centered on the Samidoun Palestinian Prisoner Solidarity Network, or ‘Samidoun,’ a dark-money-funded non-profit that acts as an international fundraising arm for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist organization, which has been active in North America and linked to efforts ranging from disrupting critical infrastructure to organizing campus protests and riots. 

PFLP states in their manifesto about their weird obsession with Marxism and their dream of destroying capitalism across the West.

Late last month, Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) sounded the alarm about a separate rogue non-profit, Palestinian Youth Movement (PYM), a leftist activist group closely aligned with Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), accusing it of working across university campuses to incite anti-Israel protests and campus chaos.

“PYM’s support of Hamas and ties to terror groups should prevent it from receiving tax-exempt donations. I’m asking the IRS to investigate and remedy this situation,” Cotton wrote on X last month. 

Tom Cotton Targets Tax Status Of ‘Terrorist-Supporting’ Youth Movement https://t.co/retubA3goC

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 27, 2025

We suspect that the Trump administration views the potential influx of Palestinians as a national security threat, given the Marxist revolutionary activities of Samidoun, the PFLP, and other affiliated groups already underway on the Homeland.

Authored by Armando Aguilar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin was treated as a purely inert asset for years: a decentralized vault, economically passive despite its fixed issuance schedule. Yet more than $7 billion worth of Bitcoin already earns native, onchain yield via major protocols — that premise is breaking down. 

Gold’s ~$23-trillion market cap mostly sits idle. Bitcoin, by contrast, now earns onchain, while holders keep custody.

As new layers unlock returns, Bitcoin crosses a structural threshold: from merely passive to productively scarce.

That change is quietly redefining how capital prices risk, how institutions allocate reserves and how portfolio theory accounts for safety. Scarcity may explain price stability. Still, productivity explains why miners, treasuries and funds are now parking assets in BTC rather than just building around it.

A vault asset that earns yield isn’t digital gold anymore — it’s productive capital.

Scarcity matters, but productivity rules

Bitcoin’s economic DNA hasn’t changed: The supply remains capped at 21 million, the issuance schedule is transparent, and no central authority can inflate or censor it. Scarcity, auditability and resistance to manipulation always set Bitcoin apart, but in 2025, these differentiating and unique factors started to mean something more.

As the issuance rate is locked, even as new protocol layers allow BTC to generate onchain returns, Bitcoin is now gaining traction for what it will enable. A new set of tools gives holders the ability to earn real yield without giving up custody, relying on centralized platforms and altering the base protocol. It leaves Bitcoin’s core mechanics untouched but changes how capital engages with the asset.

We’re already seeing that effect in practice. Bitcoin is the only crypto asset officially held in sovereign reserves: El Salvador continues to allocate BTC in its national treasury, and a 2025 US executive order recognized Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now hold over 1.26 million BTC — more than 6% of the total supply. 

Also on the mining side, public miners are no longer rushing to sell. Instead, a growing share allocates BTC into staking and synthetic yield strategies to improve long-term returns.

It’s becoming evident that the original value proposition has evolved subtly in design but profoundly in effect. What once made Bitcoin trustworthy now also makes it powerful — a once passive asset is becoming a yield-producing asset. This lays the foundation for what comes next: a native yield curve that forms around Bitcoin itself, not to mention Bitcoin‑linked assets.

Bitcoin earns without giving up control

Until recently, the idea of earning a return on crypto seemed out of reach. In Bitcoin’s case, it was hard to find non-custodial yield, at least without compromising its base-layer neutrality. But that assumption no longer holds. Today, new protocol layers let holders put BTC to work in ways once limited to centralized platforms.

Some platforms let long-term holders stake native BTC to help secure the network while earning yield, without wrapping the asset or moving it across chains. In turn, others allow users to use their Bitcoin in decentralized finance apps, earning fees from swaps and lending without giving up ownership. And the catch is that none of these systems require handing over keys to a third party, and none rely on the kind of opaque yield games that caused problems in the past.

At this point, it’s clear that this is no longer pilot-scale. In addition, miner-aligned strategies are quietly gaining traction among firms looking to boost treasury efficiency without leaving the Bitcoin ecosystem. As a result, a yield curve native to Bitcoin and grounded in transparency is starting to take shape.

Once Bitcoin yield becomes accessible and self-custodied, another problem emerges: How do you measure it? If protocols are becoming available and accessible, then clarity is missing. Because without a standard to describe what productive BTC earns, investors, treasuries and miners are left making decisions in the dark.

Time to benchmark Bitcoin yield

If Bitcoin can earn a return, then the next logical step is a straightforward way to measure it.

Right now, there’s no standard. Some investors see BTC as hedge capital; others put it to work and collect yield. However, there are inconsistencies in what the actual benchmark to measure Bitcoin should be, as there are no real comparable assets. For example, a treasury team might lock coins for a week but doesn’t have a simple way to explain the risk, or a miner might route rewards into a yield strategy but still treat it as treasury diversification. 

Consider a mid-sized decentralized autonomous organization with 1,200 BTC and six months of payroll ahead. It puts half into a 30-day vault on a Bitcoin-secured protocol and earns yield. But without a baseline, the team can’t say whether that’s a cautious move or a risky one. The same choice might be praised as clever treasury work or criticized as yield-chasing, depending on who analyzes the approach.

What Bitcoin needs is a benchmark. Not a “risk‑free rate” in the bond market sense, but a baseline: repeatable, self-custodied and onchain yield that can be generated natively on Bitcoin, net of fees, grouped by term lengths — seven days, 30, 90. Just enough structure to turn yield from guesswork into something that can be referenced and used as a benchmark.

Once that exists, treasury policies, disclosures and strategies can be built around it, and everything above that baseline can be priced for what it is: risk worth taking or not.

That’s where the metaphor with gold breaks down. Gold doesn’t pay you — productive Bitcoin does. The longer treasuries treat BTC like a vault trinket with no return, the easier it is to see who’s managing capital — and who’s simply storing it.

Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,

• Significant activity on Russia’s Novaya Zemlya archipelago indicates an impending test of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, known as Skyfall by NATO.

• The Burevestnik, a complex system designed to carry a nuclear warhead and evade missile defenses, has a history of development failures, including a deadly explosion in 2019.

• The timing of the potential test, along with high-level Russian military and nuclear official visits, suggests the missile is nearing operational deployment, driven by Russia’s desire for prestige and defense against US missile shields.

It’s been a busy few weeks up on the windswept Russian archipelago of Novaya Zemlya: people, earthmoving trucks, shipping containers, temporary housing, heavy-lift aircraft, helicopters, cargo ships.

The activity shows up in satellite imagery, aircraft hazard notifications, ship transponder trackers, and open-source intelligence reporting at a time when long Arctic days and good weather mean favorable conditions for building projects at the Pankovo test range and nearby air base.

The betting money for close watchers of Russian weapons development is on another test of a trouble-plagued, nuclear-powered cruise missile called the Burevestnik.

“The operational sites for this system are almost complete. This is going to be an operational system pretty soon here,” said Decker Eveleth, a researcher at the suburban Washington-based Center for Naval Analyses, who examined satellite imagery of the sites in July and August. “This may have been the final check before operational testing and evaluation.”

“They’re clearly pretty far long,” he said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the test has already happened,” said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based arms control researcher and expert on Russia’s nuclear forces.

The missile, dubbed Skyfall by NATO, has been under development for more than a decade now. It’s one of several new systems Russian designers have focused on as the Kremlin pours money into weapons development as part of a not fully recognized arms race — mainly against the United States.

Others include the Sarmat international continental ballistic missile, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-tipped torpedo called Poseidon, and a hypersonic missile called Avangard.

Russian President Vladimir Putin talked up many of the weapons elaborate public ceremonies in 2018 and 2019. Two of the new weapons, the Kinzhal and Tsirkon missiles, have been used in Ukraine. The Sarmat has also been tested, though last year it suffered a major mishap.

The Burevestnik has drawn particular attention from arms control and intelligence experts, partly because of the technology but also its past failures.

The missile is powered essentially by a small nuclear reactor built into the engine, theoretically enabling it to stay aloft for days.

It “would carry a nuclear warhead; circle the globe at low altitude, avoid missile defenses, and dodge terrain; and drop the warhead at a difficult-to-predict location,” according to a 2019 report by the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative.

U.S. intelligence reports say the missile has been tested at least a dozen times, including in 2017 and 2019.

Death At Nyonoksa

Among the places Russia has tested the Burevestnik is the White Sea, west of the city of Arkhangelsk, near the port of Severodvinsk.

In August 2019, while trying to raise a Burevestnik from the seabed near the town of Nyonoksa, an explosion occurred that spewed radiation over a wide area, including Severodvinsk. The blast also killed at least five Russian nuclear specialists from the state-owned nuclear company Rosatom, which is believed to have spearheaded the Burevestnik’s development.

The explosion, US officials later concluded, “was the result of a nuclear reaction that occurred during the recovery of a Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile.”

Two years earlier, another missile, also believed to be a Burevestnik, crashed somewhere in the Barents Sea, west of Novaya Zemlya, according to US intelligence officials.

“They’ve been developing this system for well over a decade. And it hasn’t really gone very well for a long time,” Eveleth said. “People died…and they didn’t give up. They kept going for it…. They kept going for it for 15 years. And they are really dedicated to it.”

Constant Phoenix, Nuke Sniffing

The activity at Pankovo in late July was highlighted in part by Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis of Middlebury’s Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. Burevestnik testing was moved out of the White Sea following the Nyonoksa accident and resumed in 2021 on Novaya Zemlya, which is more remote.

In early August, Russian authorities also released a NOTAM, according to the Barents Observer newspaper, which first reported the advisory. NOTAMs are internally recognized advisories for aircraft — a warning for pilots and ship captains, in this case, to avoid a wide area west of Novaya Zemlya.

Meanwhile, an unusually large number of fighter jets, cargo jets, and helicopters appeared parked at the Rogachevo air base on the southwestern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The aircraft appeared to include an A-50, an airborne radar and warning system experts say is rarely seen so far north; and Il-76 SKIPs, jets designed to gather electronic signals and missile telemetry data.

Open-source aircraft trackers also noted a US Air Force WC-135 jet in the airspace north of the Kola Peninsula and west of Novaya Zemlya. Known as Constant Phoenix, the jet is designed to gather samples of airborne particles to detect specific radioactive isotopes released from nuclear weapons tests.

The most recent satellite imagery, Eveleth said, suggests Russian workers have now packed up equipment on Novaya Zemlya, indicating, he said, that a test had been conducted.

‘Why Is This Such a Big Deal?’

The timing for a test was also auspicious from the point of view of Russian messaging, Lewis said in a podcast released August 20, coming around the time that Putin met US President Donald Trump for a summit in Alaska.

Another bit of evidence came on August 22 when Putin traveled to the central city of Sarov. Formerly a closed city known as Arzamas-16, Sarov has for decades been the heart of the Soviet and Russian nuclear programs: “the equivalent of Los Alamos,” Podvig said, referring to the home of the US atomic weapons program.

Among the dignitaries greeting Putin on the tarmac at Sarov was the chairman of Russia’s General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, as well as Sergei Kiriyenko, who headed Rosatom until 2016, when he took a top post in the Kremlin.

“The combination of all these things — the test activity, the apparent preparation for deployment, and this visit — again this would be a good occasion for Putin, for the Sarov [engineers] to demonstrate that this is what we’ve done, we’ve fulfilled the assignment,” Podvig said.

“Why is this such a big deal for them?” Eveleth said. “First, the sophistication and prestige of the Russian nuclear arsenal is very important” to Putin and his government.

“Second, they’re worried about [US] missile defenses, they want to hedge against an effective missile shield and this system is technically capable of evading certain systems,” he said.

There are 2.2 billion Christians in the world, which means one out of every four people is a Christian.

The visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, compares the 25 countries with the largest Christian populations, revealing how demographic trends, migration, and conversion have shaped Christianity’s current global footprint.

The data for this ranking comes from the CIA World Factbook, Pew Research and UN World Population Prospects.

Estimated religious shares between 2020–2024 from the first two sources are applied to 2025 population figures to arrive at an estimated for number of Christians in each country.

The Americas Are Christianity Central

With more than 219 million Christians, the U.S. remains the single largest Christian nation.

Although its Christian share has fallen for decades, the overall population continues to grow, keeping the country firmly at the top of the list.

Note: Includes all denominations.

Brazil (169 million) and Mexico (118 million) rank second and third.

Both countries have historically been Catholic strongholds, though Brazil has witnessed a rapid rise in evangelical denominations over the past generation.

Together, the three giants account for nearly a quarter of all Christians worldwide.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s is Reshaping the Christian Faith

Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, and Kenya illustrate Christianity’s fast-growing presence south of the Sahara.

Nigeria alone has about 109 million Christians, almost equal to the entire population of the Philippines.

High fertility rates and youthful demographics mean Africa’s share of global Christians will keep rising well past 2050.

Most of these African nations also have large non-Christian populations.

Nigeria is almost evenly split between Christians and Muslims, while Ethiopia’s Christian majority coexists with a sizable Muslim minority.

Minority Christian Communities in Population Giants

China and India appear in the ranking despite Christians making up only 5% and 2% of their populations, respectively.

Sheer population size—over 1.4 billion people each—translates into tens of millions of believers even when Christianity is a small minority.

The presence of 72 million Chinese and 34 million Indian Christians underscores how religious minorities can still represent significant global communities.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: Countries With the Largest Muslim Populations on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The British government has won its legal fight against a local council that sought to shut down a migrant hotel in Essex.

The Court of Appeal ruled on Friday that a temporary injunction obtained by Epping Forest District Council against the continued use of the Bell Hotel to house asylum seekers should be overturned.

During the hearing, Home Office lawyers argued that the human rights of asylum seekers outweighed the council’s decision to close the hotel. The council had insisted that Somani Hotels, which owns the Bell Hotel, was in breach of planning law by changing its use to accommodate migrants. But the judges found that the lower court, which granted the injunction, had made errors that “undermine his decision.”

The ruling lifts the interim injunction and scraps a Sept. 12 deadline for asylum seekers to be relocated. A final appeal hearing will take place later this year.

The hotel has been at the center of controversy in recent months after anti-immigration protests erupted in the town, following the arrest of one of its occupants on suspicion of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old schoolgirl.

The Court of Appeal’s decision has sparked anger among opposition lawmakers, who accused Labour of prioritizing the rights of illegal immigrants over the safety of local communities.

Robert Jenrick, the Conservatives’ shadow justice secretary, posted: “Starmer’s government has shown itself to be on the side of illegal migrants who have broken into our country.”

Rupert Lowe, an MP and leader of Restore Britain, wrote: “A Government against its own people. No more appeals, court cases, or debates. We must deport the illegal migrants. Not some of them. Not most of them. All of them.” He later called for the Home Office to be abolished.

Abolish the Home Office and start again.

A new department, staffed with British patriots who believe in secure borders and mass deportations.

— Rupert Lowe MP (@RupertLowe10) August 29, 2025

Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, said the ruling was a setback but vowed to keep fighting: “Local communities should not pay the price for Labour’s total failure on illegal immigration. This ruling is a setback, but it is not the end. I say to Conservative councils seeking similar injunctions against asylum hotels – keep going! Every case has different circumstances, and I know good Conservative councils will keep fighting for residents, so we will keep working with them every step of the way.”

My statement on the Epping migrant hotel injunction decision. pic.twitter.com/FjWYvLgHcO

— Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) August 29, 2025

Ben Habib, leader of Advance UK, echoed the anger: “He says he wants to shut illegal migrant hotels, but Keir Starmer fights tooth and nail to keep them open. Against the wishes of local residents and the local authority, the Epping hotel will now stay open. So much for democracy and the security of British citizens.”

Kelvin MacKenzie, former editor of The Sun, went further, alleging judicial bias: “No surprise Lord Justice Bean, a Labour Party member for 28 years, has in his Appeal Court judgment, stopped the 128 migrants being kicked out of the Bell Hotel in Epping. The law and Labour are in lockstep. A migrant has more rights than a British citizen. A serious moment.”

No surprise Lord Justice Bean, a Labour Party member for 28 years, has in his Appeal Court judgment, stopped the 128 migrants being kicked out of the Bell Hotel in Epping.
The law and Labour are in lockstep. A migrant has more rights than a British citizen. A serious moment.

— Kelvin MacKenzie (@kelvmackenzie) August 29, 2025

A full trial to determine the future of the hotel will take place in October.

Read more here…

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The French debt crisis reminds us that gradualism never works, that statism always ends in ruin and that those countries that bet on more government and higher taxes always end in stagnation, risk of default and social unrest.

France’s government debt-to-GDP exceeds 114%. However, unfunded committed pension liabilities reach 400% of GDP, according to Eurostat. The fiscal deficit announced for this year is 5.4%, but market consensus maintains an expectation of 5.8%. The five-year credit default risk has risen by 20% in twelve months. The yield on French two-year debt exceeds that of Spain, Italy, and Greece, and its risk premium to Germany has reached 80 basis points—20 above that of Spain.

The problem in the euro area is that all the mainstream claps when a government inflates GDP with massive government spending and public sector jobs as well as immigration, disguising persistent fiscal imbalances and declining productivity growth. Furthermore, Keynesian analysts ignore the crowding out of the private sector and the harmful impact of high taxes on long-term public accounts’ sustainability.

I am old enough to remember when the mainstream media hailed Greece as the engine of growth in the eurozone when it was bloating GDP with massive government spending and public sector jobs. Greece was hailed as “safeguarding high economic growth” and “leading the euro area recovery” in 2005 and 2006 by the IMF and the European Commission publications. Headlines and policy reports widely acknowledged Greece’s economic achievements as an example of strong leadership within the euro area. We all know what happened in 2008.

We cannot forget that the European Central Bank has been instrumental in creating the perverse incentives for politicians to maintain and increase elevated spending and fiscal imbalances.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has, over the past decade, deployed a policy toolkit of unprecedented scale—including repeated rate cuts, negative nominal rates, the controversial anti-fragmentation tool, and de facto debt monetisation—designed to safeguard the eurozone’s stability. Yet, for all the rhetoric of stability and independence, these measures have created powerful incentives for fiscal recklessness, eroding the very foundations of European monetary credibility and planting the seeds of today’s sovereign debt crises, including the current French debt debacle.

ECB policy rates, once anchored to discipline both sovereign and private borrowing, have plummeted from above 4% in 2008 to negative territory and have remained in negative real territory for years. Furthermore, the ECB’s asset purchase programmes, expanded during crises under initiatives like the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), have saturated bond markets with central bank money and generated an enormous crowding-out effect that penalises credit to families and businesses and disguises solvency issues of public sector issuers.

The anti-fragmentation tool, designed to contain the “spread” between the core and periphery country bonds, takes this issue further: by promising open-ended intervention, the ECB reassures markets that it will backstop sovereign debt at virtually any price, diluting the discipline that risk premia once imposed on profligate governments. In fact, it could be considered a pro-squandering tool, as it benefits those countries with poor fiscal compliance and penalises those who reign in debt and deficits.

While these interventions immediately calm markets, they foster a mindset of indifference in governments, leading them to consistently increase their spending. Thus, many governments, like Spain’s, brag about the low interest rates and spread of their debt despite rising imbalances and worsening public accounts. The anti-fragmentation tool and negative nominal rates destroy the market mechanism that should serve as an essential warning for reckless fiscal policy. Member states, assured of cheap funding and endless ECB support, have little incentive to reform bloated budgets or contain deficits, especially when electorally costly. The persistent threat warned by German policymakers, that ECB actions are subsidising “fiscal freeloading” in high-debt member states, is becoming a reality.

The most dramatic case is France. The French government’s debt has soared above 114% of GDP in 2025, driven in part by persistent large deficits covered cheaply under the ECB’s umbrella. Attempts at fiscal consolidation have always been timid and thus have failed to achieve lasting discipline, with ECB support always in the background as a failsafe. The result is a mounting sovereign risk premium: French bonds, for the first time in modern euro history, now yield more than comparably rated Spanish, Greek, or Italian bonds, signalling the market’s discomfort with France’s debt trajectory even in the age of ECB backstops. The fact that this rise in spreads happens in the middle of a large stimulus plan (Next Generation EU) and rate cuts is even more alarming.

The so-called anti-fragmentation instrument, meant as a crisis containment tool, is inherently a mechanism of “joint liability without joint control”. It binds prudent euro members to the fiscal choices of their less disciplined partners, socialising risk but nationalising rewards. With this facility, markets can no longer efficiently discriminate; anxiety about debt sustainability that once spurred necessary reforms is suppressed rather than solved. Furthermore, it is like debt mutualisation with no real obligations.

The “whatever it takes” philosophy, so lauded by ECB leaders, is now a double-edged sword: it has replaced accountability with dependency and emboldened fiscal laxity.

Central bank purchases and the suppression of yields to nominal negative territory are, by definition, the worst case of debt monetisation. The ECB is a loss-making entity because it purchases bonds even when they are exceedingly expensive. The ECB’s accumulated unrealised paper losses on its asset purchase programmes are estimated at €800 billion, vastly exceeding its capital, according to IERF.

These policies are disguising solvency problems even if dressed in the language of emergency support. This removes the ultimate deterrent to government overspending: the cost of money itself. The long-term result is an environment in which euro area governments, aware that refinancing is guaranteed at low cost even during difficult times, accumulate increasingly larger debts—making the bloc vulnerable to even minor shocks in confidence, inflation, or governance. This situation could likely harm the euro in the future if Germany falls into the same trap as France, a scenario that seems probable given the latest policy announcements.

If you read newspapers in France, this perverse incentive is very evident. Instead of talking about the unsustainable spending path, many demand more central bank purchases and stimulus. Furthermore, some demand the acceleration of the digital euro to implement even more aggressive monetary measures.

The unfolding French debt crisis is a direct byproduct of these policies. France’s spending has persistently outstripped growth, yet the promise of perennial ECB support delayed any reckoning. Now, as risk premia rise and markets test the ECB’s resolve, the eurozone faces the bitter consequences of a policy era marked by moral hazard and eroded fiscal discipline.

While ECB activism may buy temporary stability, its long-term cost is clear: higher debts, private sector weakening, currency debasement, and the erosion of incentives for responsible policymaking. Unless Europe rethinks its reliance on central bank eternal stimuli and restores mechanisms for market discipline, today’s French crisis may be only one of many fiscal storms ahead. The success of the euro as a reserve currency was based on the pillar of fiscal prudence and responsibility. Lack of fiscal discipline always means a risk for the currency.

Central banks cannot print solvency, and the lack of structural reforms and excessive easing policies can end up destroying the euro.