Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
I sat down with my friend Peter Schiff this weekend to get his targets on gold miners, gold, the dollar and markets heading into the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026.
Schiff, never shy about his views, has spent decades warning of bubbles, currency debasement, and the inevitability of gold’s resurgence. This year the market is proving him to be exceptionally on point, with the gold miners ETF up more than 80% year to date. But, according to Schiff, the move is still just getting started.
“Look, I don’t think I’ve ever been more bullish than I am now,” he told me.
“Not just the fundamentals, which have never been better in my lifetime, really, for gold. But the technicals. Look at the close we just got on a monthly chart, on a weekly chart, on the daily chart for gold, for silver. Look at how the miners are now finally leading the rally. Gold stocks are going up now even when gold goes down.”
That refrain — miners leading the metal — kept coming up. Schiff has been hammering the point for months, insisting that if investors want exposure to the unfolding bull market, they should load up on the companies digging the metal out of the ground. “I argue that gold in the ground was as cheap as it’s ever been compared to gold above ground,” he said. “And as of a couple of days ago from when I put that report out, the gold mining stocks were up more than 20%, and gold was down about 1% or 2%. But now, on Friday, gold hit a new record high, and the gold stocks are now at new highs.”
On the year, Schiff reminded me, the numbers have been breathtaking. “The GDX is up 86%. GDXJ is up 87. Newmont Mining has almost doubled on the year. It’s up pretty much close to exactly 100%,” he said. “And I think it’s the number two stock in the S&P 500 year to date. But I think it’s going to be number one by the end of the year. I think Newmont is going to pass Palantir and it’s going to end the year as the number one stock in the S&P 500.”
Schiff has long derided Wall Street’s myopia, and this was no exception. “They downgraded Newmont and Barrick at $32 a share, calling them sells because gold was at $2,000. I was telling my customers that $2,000 was the floor,” he recalled. “Just like I said that $30 was the floor for silver. Here we are at $40, and $40 is still cheap as far as I’m concerned, especially with gold at almost $3,500. Forty-dollar silver is cheap.”
The conviction didn’t stop there. He argued that the miners have far more upside left. “I still think we have quite a ways to go in these miners markets — maybe at least another 50%, maybe 100%,” Schiff said. “If you put a market multiple on Newmont, it should double from here. Except by the time the gold stocks double from here, gold won’t be $3,500. It’ll be a lot higher than that.”
How much higher? Schiff didn’t flinch. “People used to needle me a lot because years ago, when gold was 1,500, 1,900, I was saying it’s going to 5,000 and it kind of peaked out. But 5,000 is not my target for gold now. It’s much, much higher than that. I don’t know where — 10,000, 20,000. Gold is going a lot higher because of how much time has gone by and how much more debt we’ve accumulated.”
In the shorter term, he gave a crisp forecast: “I think the price of gold could easily get to 4,000 by the end of this year. And maybe 6,000 next year. Who knows? Maybe higher. But it’s got a long way to go.”
Silver, too, is central to his bullish thesis. “I was saying thirty is the bottom for silver, like two thousand for gold. And here we are at forty. But forty dollars is still cheap,” he stressed. At another moment he predicted: “I would not be surprised to see silver gap well above forty dollars an ounce.”
Of course, no Schiff conversation would be complete without his disdain for Bitcoin. “Bitcoin is not digital gold, it’s anti-gold,” he said flatly. “If gold keeps heading higher, Bitcoin is going down. Look, gold closed at a record high on Friday. Bitcoin is 13% below its record high. Bitcoin is in a full-blown correction, maybe on its way to a bear market, while gold’s at new record highs. So how does that qualify Bitcoin as some digital version of gold when it doesn’t trade anything like gold?”
By Schiff’s calculation, Bitcoin’s best days relative to gold are already behind it. “Bitcoin right now is about 107,000 and gold is 3,450, so Bitcoin is 31 ounces of gold. The peak was in 2021 at 36 ounces. So you’re talking about four years ago is when Bitcoin made its high in gold. Since then it’s underperformed.” His outlook was blunt: “Maybe when you get Bitcoin back below 75,000 or maybe below 50,000, at some point people are going to throw in the towel. And then it’s just going to implode.”
If his outlook on crypto was bleak, his vision for the U.S. dollar was darker still. Schiff sees not just a correction, but a collapse. “I think that the dollar index, which right now has got a 97 handle on it, by the end of this year we could be at 90, maybe slightly below. And by the end of next year, if we go back to QE, we could go back down to 70. Now, 70 is about the record low from 2008. But I do think that ultimately we’re going to crack that. And I would expect the dollar index to be down near 40 or below.”
The implications, he argued, are massive. “We’re on the verge of a major crisis of the dollar and the bond market and the U.S. economy, financial market. Just like in the days and months leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, no one had a clue. But this time it’s bigger — it’s a sovereign debt crisis, a currency crisis.”
That means stocks, too, are set to suffer in real terms. “U.S. stocks have been falling in real terms for 25 years,” he said. “Measure the S&P in gold, and it’s lower today than it was 25 years ago. That trend is going to accelerate. Even if the S&P goes up, it will go up less than a year. So it’s going down.” He shook his head at the thought of bonds: “I couldn’t be more bearish on U.S. bonds. I would discourage anybody from owning not just treasuries, but mortgage-backed securities, corporate bonds. You’re just going to get killed.”
For Schiff, the roadmap ahead is clear. “Gold is going to go way up and the dollar’s going down. These gold stocks — by December 31st, 2025, the 10-year trailing return on gold stocks will be higher than the S&P. That’s my prediction. Let’s see.”
As the conversation wound down, I was struck by how consistent Schiff’s worldview has remained over the years. He has always framed gold not just as an asset but as the ultimate anchor of value in a world of paper promises. The difference today is that, for once, the world seems to be moving in his direction.
“Look,” he said finally, “the world is going back on a gold standard, whether we like it or not. Because the world needs to back their currency with something. They can’t back it with nothing. Gold is real money. And that’s where this is all heading.”
(WATCH THE FULL, EXCLUSIVE HOUR LONG INTERVIEW WITH SCHIFF HERE).
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