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Released Comey Memos Reveal Obama Admin’s Endorsement Of Russian Hoax

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Released Comey Memos Reveal Obama Admin’s Endorsement Of Russian Hoax

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Newly unclassified memos from disgraced former FBI Director James Comey confirmed that the Obama administration not only welcomed the Russia meddling hoax but also discussed potential post-election actions.

Journalist Catherine Herridge first shared the October 2016 memos on X on Friday after FBI Director Kash Patel approved their declassification.

In one memo, Comey asked, “What is the goal? Informing US people? Disrupting Russians.”

Elsewhere, he contemplated potential steps after President Donald Trump’s election in 2016.

“What are the circumstances in which we can imagine taking any action after the election,” Comey wrote.

“I can’t picture it so why threaten any.”

One note, titled “My Thoughts,” referenced the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein and former Rep. (now Sen.) Adam Schiff, both California Democrats, as putting the FBI “in odd spot.”

The context behind this last note is unclear.

On another page, Comey used the acronym “COS,” likely referring to a chief of staff.

He also entertained the Russia meddling theory.

“Russians have a view on who should win,” he wrote, adding:

“SR (Susan Rice/National Security Adviser) •Need IC (intelligence Community) to do their best lay down of what we could say publicly.”

The memos suggest the outgoing Obama administration embraced the idea that Russia wanted Trump to win the election—a theory that later evolved into claims that Trump colluded with Russia.

No evidence has ever been produced to substantiate this claim.

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 09/07/2025 – 09:20

Cost Of Living Is The Biggest Challenge Americans Face

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Cost Of Living Is The Biggest Challenge Americans Face

While inflation has long come down from its 2021/2022 highs, when it peaked at 9 percent, it is still slightly elevated at 2.7 percent.

More importantly though, people are still struggling to cope with the lasting effects of the inflation crisis.

As Statista’s Felix Richter shows in the following chart, according to a new Consumer Insights survey conducted in June and July 2025, 49 percent of U.S. adults said that the high cost of living was one of the biggest challenges they currently face – making it by far the most common answer.

Infographic: Cost of Living Is the Biggest Challenge Americans Face | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

It is a common misconception that prices come down when inflation cools, when in reality a period of high inflation leaves a legacy of high prices.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. consumer prices have increased 22.7 percent since January 2021, with some categories seeing even steeper price increases than that.

Food prices have are up 25 percent, rents have increased almost 27 percent and transportation prices are up 28 percent.

And yet, nominal wages have only grown 21.8 percent since January 2021, leaving many people worse off than they were almost five years ago.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 09/07/2025 – 08:45

WW3? French Hospitals Told To Prepare For A “Major Military Engagement” Within Six Months

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WW3? French Hospitals Told To Prepare For A “Major Military Engagement” Within Six Months

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

French hospitals have been advised to prepare for a large scale war by next year, in a government letter that was leaked to the media.

There are reports that the French Ministry of Health has informed hospitals to prepare for a “major [military] engagement” by March of 2026.

The letter allegedly states that between 10,000 to 50,000 people are to be expected in hospitals.

The leaked letter also reportedly explains that mass casualties are to be expected not just from its own forces, but wounded soldiers from across Europe, and that France would be acting as a ‘rear base’.

It outlines how French hospitals would need to prepare for up to 50 THOUSAND beds allocated to wounded civilians and military personnel EVERY MONTH.

The Ministry of Health also noted that it is considering the creation of medical centers near ports and airports.

*  *  *

​Iodine for the prepared…

*  *  *

“In the current international context, it is necessary to anticipate the modalities of health support in situations of high-intensity conflict,” the Ministry of Health letter reportedly notes.

 

The report adds that Health Minister Catherine Vautrin has not denied the authenticity of letter, claiming that it is “part of preparation.”

“It’s part of preparation, like strategic stockpiles, like epidemics,” Vautrin stated.

She added, “Hospitals are constantly preparing for epidemics and patient intake. The fact that the country is preparing for crises and assessing the consequences of what is happening [in the world] is completely normal.”

“I wasn’t in office at the time of Covid-19, remember, there were no words harsh enough to describe the country’s lack of preparedness,” she further stated.

This isn’t the first time we’ve heard about this.

Earlier this year, the French government sent a ‘survival manual’ to every household in France warning them of an ‘imminent threat to the country’.

Meanwhile, Germany’s military chief says NATO will be on alert as Russia prepares for Zapad 2025, a massive joint drill with Belarus which has been described as a dress rehearsal for a real invasion.

NATO chief Mark Rutte has warned that the world is “on the brink of WW3”, claiming a dual assault from China on Taiwan and Russia on NATO territory could spark a global conflict.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 09/07/2025 – 08:10

EU-Mercosur Trade Deal: Protectionism, Politics, And US Pressure Explained

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EU-Mercosur Trade Deal: Protectionism, Politics, And US Pressure Explained

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe 

After a two-decade stalemate, there is now movement in the trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur states of South America. Donald Trump’s hardline policies have made this possible, while criticism comes from the usual suspects.

A quarter of a century ago, in 2000, trade talks began between the EU and the Mercosur states – Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, with Venezuela joining in the meantime. Mercosur aims to reduce trade barriers, establish an integrated customs regime, and create its own internal market, similar to European structures.

The Struggle of Protectionists

It has always been a tough negotiation, but on Wednesday, the European Commission approved the version of the agreement last presented at the end of 2024. The core point is the reduction of tariffs on the majority of goods, covering European industrial products such as machinery, vehicles, and pharmaceuticals, as well as South American agricultural and raw material exports. At the same time, the agreement provides trade quotas and protective measures to shield sensitive sectors—especially European agriculture—from incoming competition. Around 350 geographical indications are intended to protect the uniqueness of European products—EU protectionism in its purest form.

Under no circumstances should the Mercosur agreement be called a free trade agreement, even if political feuilletons like to do so. The idea that open competition is the best consumer protection and the most efficient way to supply markets is still far from reality in both South America and the European Union.

Hidden Trade Barriers

Another focus of the agreement is on sustainability and regulation: Mercosur companies must comply with EU environmental and social standards and provide proof of “deforestation-free” production and adherence to the EU’s carbon taxonomy. The agreement also includes mechanisms for investment protection and corporate dispute resolution, providing legal certainty for both sides. In this regulatory arena, Brussels defines its protectionist power, surrounding trade relations with non-European states with wall after wall of non-tariff barriers.

Just as Europeans have historically struggled to allow free trade when it threatened existing economic privileges, South Americans have also been reluctant. As a result, the Mercosur agreement long remained a “ghost contract,” was revived in 2016, and now—partly under pressure from the Americans—appears attractive for both sides as a means to strengthen mutual trade and provide economic impetus to the slow-growing regions.

South America Under Pressure

Resource-rich South America has long realized that the era of the great export boom is over—primarily due to China’s ongoing economic crisis. Growth rates today are significantly below the levels of the early 2000s, averaging only around 2.5 percent. At the same time, unemployment is slowly rising, and public debt is significantly higher—in Brazil, for example, around 77 percent of GDP. Except for the special case of Argentina, which has pursued a radically market-oriented course, the pressure to act is high everywhere.

New markets must be opened, especially for raw materials and agricultural exports. This is why the Mercosur agreement with the EU is again gaining attractiveness for South American states, provided it can at least partially breach the EU’s high protective barriers.

The rub from a European perspective is that the politically influential but economically marginal agricultural lobby—especially in France—will do everything possible to keep South American competition at bay.

No Consensus Required

The European Commission has split the agreement into two parts before the voting process to pass the trade component more quickly with a qualified majority, bypassing the unanimity requirement in the Council for this section. Signing the commercial part does not require unanimity in the EU Council. For ratification of the trade section, a qualified majority in the Council of Ministers is sufficient—at least 55 percent of member states representing at least 65 percent of the EU population, which is considered likely. The European Parliament must also approve the trade section by simple majority.

The political part of the agreement, covering human rights, environmental, and social standards, is considered a “mixed agreement” and must be ratified unanimously by all national parliaments. Here, a single member state can block progress.

France’s Agricultural Lobby Will Be Compensated

Besides Polish and Italian interest groups, France remains especially critical. Given domestic political tensions, such as the upcoming vote on social spending, the country risks becoming a brake on the Mercosur agreement. It is conceivable that France will use every lobbying tool in the Euro Council before voting on the second part, which covers human rights and environmental standards, to slow down ratification.

While German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed satisfaction with the negotiation result in a post on X, France remains critical but is open to the protective mechanisms proposed by the European Commission. Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin described the agricultural protection clause as “a step in the right direction” and announced a thorough review. Previously, the government had criticized the agreement as “unacceptable,” mainly due to cheap beef imports from the Mercosur region.

Meanwhile, the European Commission is attempting to mitigate concerns through temporary import restrictions and a €6.3 billion crisis fund for farmers—the approval of the opposition is once again essentially bought with taxpayers’ money, and enthusiasm for free markets remains minimal. President Macron expressed substantive concerns but refrained from outright opposition to a procedure that allows ratification without unanimity. Agricultural organizations continue their protests, while the farmers’ association FNSEA is increasingly integrated into government policy and less insistent on import protection.

Pressure from Washington

If an agreement is eventually reached between Mercosur and the EU, much of the credit goes to pressure from Washington. Donald Trump, above all, put massive pressure on European exporters through his tariff regime, forcing the opening of new markets.

If Mercosur states largely accept European climate and social rules and EU institutions pass the agreement, the European Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen would achieve a first victory after the debacle with the U.S. Final negotiations in Brussels are expected later this year.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 09/07/2025 – 07:00

US War Department To Shift Focus From China To ‘Threats’ In Latin America

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US War Department To Shift Focus From China To ‘Threats’ In Latin America

Via The Cradle

US War Department officials are proposing to shift the US military posture away from a focus on China, instead prioritizing alleged threats in Latin America and the Caribbean, Politico reported on 6 Saturday.

A draft of the newest National Defense Strategy places “domestic and regional missions above countering adversaries such as Beijing and Moscow,” Politico revealed, citing three people briefed on early versions of the report.

Associated Press

The news comes one day after Trump signed an executive order for the Department of Defense to be renamed the “War Department” to better reflect its mission.

Politico notes that the move, if implemented, would anger politicians in both the Republican and Democratic parties who have long been hostile to China and called for aggressive policies to counter its rise.

“This is going to be a major shift for the US and its allies on multiple continents,” said one person briefed on the draft document. “The old, trusted US promises are being questioned.”

The document was prepared by Elbridge Colby, the War Department’s policy chief. Politico reports that the shift away from China and toward the Western Hemisphere appears to be already underway.  

The War Department deployed thousands of National Guard troops to support police in Los Angeles and Washington, DC, and has established a militarized zone across the southern border with Mexico that allows troops to detain civilians.

The policy shift may also result in the US withdrawing some troops from Europe and cutting military assistance programs for fellow NATO members.

“NATO allies increasingly expect some of the roughly 80,000 U.S. troops in Europe to leave over the next several years,” Politico added.

The proposed policy shift comes amid escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela.

This week, Trump authorized the US military to shoot down Venezuelan warplanes if commanders judge them a threat to US naval and air forces in the Caribbean. “If they do put us in a dangerous position, we’ll shoot them down,” Trump told reporters Friday.

Washington sent eight warships, a submarine, and F-35 warplanes to the region, claiming that Venezuela is responsible for a flood of drugs entering the US. “Billions of dollars of drugs are pouring into our country from Venezuela. The prisons of Venezuela have been opened up to our country,” Trump claimed.

In contrast, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro says Trump is seeking to overthrow his government and that his armed forces would move to a stage of “armed struggle” if Venezuela were attacked.

The US has carried out multiple coup attempts in Venezuela in recent decades, while imposing sweeping sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector and financial system.

*  *  * 

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Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/06/2025 – 23:20

Number Of US Abortions Rises Post-Dobbs

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Number Of US Abortions Rises Post-Dobbs

According to NGO Society of Family Planning, the number of virtual-only abortion appointments has risen in the United States since the overturning of precedent Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court around three years ago to the point where they actually caused overall U.S. abortion number to increase.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, experts interviewed on the topic said that the rise of virtual-only appointments actually increased access to abortions for women in rural areas independent of the legal status of abortion in their state.

For several past decades, U.S. abortion numbers had been falling as experts said that, among other reasons, restrictions put on abortions in the pre-internet age were working.

Abortion numbers actually started to rise again before the overturning of Roe v. Wade, at around the turn of the current decade.

Infographic: Number of U.S. Abortions Rises Post-Dobbs | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

While providers needed time to gear up and abortion numbers initially sunk following the Supreme Court decision in June 2022, appointments by clinics that do not offer in-person meetings of doctors and patients and instead sent an abortion pill via the mail began to become more common at around the one-year mark after states had been freed to pass their own abortion laws. In December of 2024, the Society of Family Planning estimated that almost 26,000 such appointments took place, up from only 8,500 three years prior.

Virtual-only appointments can take place in states where abortion is legal. Also included in the count are virtual abortions provided via shield laws to states where abortions have been banned. Shield laws state that abortion providers can offer procedures to patients who traveled to their state from a state where abortion is illegal or via telehealth to a state where abortions are banned. They exist, for example, in California, Colorado, Massachusetts, New York state and Washington state.

Meanwhile, virtual appointments by brick-and-mortar abortion providers also rose, but only to around 1,500 per month. However, these appointments were not tracked separately previously and are included with regular in-person appointments for the purpose of this chart. They represent a much smaller part of virtual appointments.

As of the latest available data, 14 U.S. states have currently banned abortions, the biggest being Texas, Tennessee and Indiana. Four more states, among them Florida and Georgia, restrict abortions to six weeks of gestational age or four weeks after a pregnancy occurred/two weeks after a missed period.

Strict bans are currently being blocked by courts in five additional states.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/06/2025 – 22:45

AI Isn’t Free. The First Costs Are On Your Bill, And More Are Coming…

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AI Isn’t Free. The First Costs Are On Your Bill, And More Are Coming…

Authored by Kay Rubacek via The Epoch Times,

“The United States is in a race to achieve global dominance in artificial intelligence. Whoever has the largest AI ecosystem will set global AI standards and reap broad economic and military benefits.”

– America’s AI Action Plan, July 25, 2025

That’s the U.S. government’s own language. An arms race.

Artificial intelligence is no longer framed as a research project or an economic opportunity. It is being cast as a struggle for survival and global power, a modern Manhattan Project.

Yet just last week, on Aug. 26, the Congressional Research Service released a Frequently Asked Questions memo designed to help lawmakers get on the same page about the basics: what a data center is, how many exist, and how much electricity data centers consume.

If even government institutions are still in the process of aligning their understanding, it’s clear that citizens will need to move quickly to understand what is happening and to understand what it means for their daily lives.

The memo laid out in plain language what many assumed lawmakers already understood.

A data center is a specialized building that houses thousands of servers. There are about seven thousand worldwide, with the largest concentration in the United States, especially in Northern Virginia and Texas. In 2022, American data centers consumed about 176 terawatt-hours of electricity—roughly 4 percent of all U.S. demand, more than many entire states. Projections suggest an additional 35 to 108 gigawatts of demand by 2030. The midpoint estimate, 50 gigawatts, is enough to power every home in California. 

The very fact that such a memo was necessary highlights a structural reality: the pace of technological build out is outstripping the pace of legislative comprehension. If institutions themselves are still catching up, it underscores how important it is for citizens to get informed now, before the costs mount even higher.

While Congress is being briefed on “Data Centers 101,” the executive branch has been preparing all year for the AI race that is already underway:

On January 20, 2025, the White House declared a National Energy Emergency.

On April 8, an order was issued to strengthen grid reliability, with the Department of Energy (DOE) tasked to model how AI demand would reshape the grid.

Four months later, on July 2, DOE’s report warned bluntly: “Retirements plus load growth increase risk of outages by 100x. Status quo is unsustainable.”

Just weeks later, on July 23, a new order accelerated federal permitting of data centers, opening federal lands to construction. And on July 25, the White House released America’s AI Action Plan, framing AI as the next great geopolitical race.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright put it plainly: “We are taking a bold step to accelerate the next Manhattan Project—ensuring U.S. AI and energy leadership.” So on one side of our government, institutions are receiving crash courses on the fundamentals. On the other, the executive branch is already issuing a call to arms.

For many Americans, the gap between government priorities and local realities shows up in one place: the monthly electric bill. Reports are now showing how in Columbus, Ohio, households on standard utility plans saw increases of about 20 dollars a month (roughly $240 a year) linked directly to AI data centers. In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Ohio this summer, bills jumped by ten to 27 dollars a month.

In Oregon last year, utilities warned regulators that consumers needed protection from rate hikes caused by data centers.  And in the Mid-Atlantic, regulators cited data centers as one of the main reasons for projected 20 percent increases in household electricity costs by 2025. 

The complaints about rising bills suggest something deeper. Citizens are starting to connect the dots before Washington fully has. If households can feel the costs already, then citizens cannot wait for official briefings, they must demand clarity and prepare themselves. Part of the confusion comes from the nature of artificial intelligence itself. To most people, AI feels intangible. It lives in the “cloud.” You type a question, get an answer, and never see the machinery behind it. No one sends you a receipt for the power you used to get your answer. 

But AI is not weightless. It runs on football-field-sized data centers, packed with servers that must run day and night. These machines use staggering amounts of electricity and water to stay cool. A Google search consumes about 0.3 watt-hours of electricity. An AI chatbot query can use up to ten times more—around three watt-hours.

Training a single large AI model consumes as much electricity as hundreds of U.S. homes use in a year.

Despite the technological advancements, computing power is not getting more efficient in terms of power usage. It is becoming ever more energy-hungry. For example, Nvidia’s latest chips draw more kilowatts per server than previous generations to help data centers keep up with demand.

And tracking AI power usage data has become more difficult. After ChatGPT launched in November 2022, companies became more competitive and stopped publishing detailed energy-use reports, leaving analysts to rely on estimations. In the end, citizens are footing the bill for systems whose true power demands are growing while publicly available data on its power usage is growing ever more opaque.

At the same time, there is no consensus among the experts on what AI means for humanity. Geoffrey Hinton, who is often called the “godfather of AI,” won a Nobel Prize for his contribution to AI development, but left Google in 2023 to warn the public about the existential threat AI poses to humanity.

Others in the field insist the opposite: that AI will cure diseases, solve climate change, and usher in an age of prosperity. The gap between these views is not narrow. It is a chasm.

When leaders call AI the “new Manhattan Project,” they reveal both ambition and blind spots. The original Manhattan Project was vast and secretive, but its end product was narrow: nuclear weapons. Its impact was geopolitical and terrifying, but its scope was limited to defense. 

AI is different. It is already reshaping daily life: jobs, media, education, commerce, and even household energy bills. In 2025 alone, Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft will spend over $350 billion on AI data centers. This amount is nearly double the inflation-adjusted cost of the Apollo program. These projects will require as much power as tens of millions of homes. And unlike nuclear weapons, which governments tightly controlled, AI is being rolled out by private corporations with minimal transparency. This is not simply another Manhattan Project. It is bigger, broader, and more disruptive.

The silent stage for this race is the U.S. electric grid, and American citizens are now forced to share their access to it. The White House itself admits that “the U.S. electric grid is one of the largest and most complex machines on Earth.”

It is also a machine under strain. The United States has three major grids: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Within those supergrids, electricity is managed by regional operators like PJM in the Mid-Atlantic, MISO in the Midwest, CAISO in California, and ERCOT in Texas. Today, the average household experiences one or two short outages a year, mostly from storms. But the Department of Energy now warns of a hundred-fold increase in blackout risk by 2030 if data center growth continues and plants keep closing on schedule.

Calling the U.S. grid “one of the largest and most complex machines on Earth” is not an exaggeration. But a machine that complex is also fragile. When you push it beyond its limits, for example, by adding the equivalent of every California household’s electricity demand in just a few years, the consequences will not be abstract. They will be rolling blackouts, instability, and higher costs in the places where citizens live.

The options given by the Department of Energy are stark: We can continue on the current path and expect regular blackouts. We can keep coal and nuclear plants online longer than planned, accepting the political and environmental trade-offs. We can build new supply along with transmission lines at a pace far faster than anything the U.S. has achieved in decades. Or we can slow down data center expansion, requiring companies to build only where abundant power is available. None are easy. But without action, the “status quo” means a future of rolling blackouts.

This brings us to the deeper question: Why has Congress only just now been briefed on the basics?

The answer is less about individual lawmakers and more about how institutions work. Legislative bodies are designed to deliberate slowly, to build consensus, and to check the pace of change. That design clashes directly with the speed of today’s AI build out, which is driven by corporate competition and framed by the executive branch as an arms race.

The lag is systemic, not personal. But while the government catches up, citizens cannot afford to wait. The bills are already arriving, the outages are already looming, and the decisions shaping our energy future are being made now.

What’s certain is that AI is not intangible. It is not free. It is not frictionless. It is built on massive physical infrastructure that consumes enormous amounts of electricity and water today, and experts cannot accurately predict its future costs because the technology is changing too fast. It is reshaping society in real time, as citizens are already paying more each month, facing higher risks of blackouts, and living in a society being reshaped faster than any in living memory. 

Just as families once endured rationing and shortages for the Manhattan Project, today’s citizens are being asked to bear the unseen costs of an AI race they never chose. And as with the Manhattan Project, the greatest sacrifices will not be made in Washington boardrooms but in American households.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/06/2025 – 22:10

America’s Jr Partners, Canada & Australia, Flex With Warships In Taiwan Strait 

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America’s Jr Partners, Canada & Australia, Flex With Warships In Taiwan Strait 

Two warships from Canada and Australia sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, and were closely monitored by the China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), according to an announcement by Chinese state media.

State-run Global Times identified that the Canadian frigate Ville de Quebec and the Australian guided-missile destroyer Brisbane were the vessels that made the provocative transit.

“On September 6, the Canadian frigate ‘Quebec’ and the Australian destroyer ‘Brisbane’ transited the Taiwan Strait, causing trouble and provoking,” a statement from the the Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said.

“The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) maintained full surveillance and monitoring throughout the transit, with the situation fully under control,” it said further, at a moment the Australian and Canadian militaries withheld any initial comment.

Typically it is the US military which leads these kind of semi-routine “freedom of navigation” passages, even as the last several years have seen the Chinese military step up war games and patrols around Taiwan and in the contested strait.

But increasingly these junior partners of the US have sought to step up and flex their muscles. But one wonders why Canada, with a comparably weak military (to China’s) would be impelled to sail half a world away through waters which Beijing sees as its domain.

The Chinese PLA military has additionally stated of this latest Taiwan Strait transit, “The actions of the Canadians and Australians send the wrong signals and increase security risks.”

Beijing condemned the move as “causing trouble”. Additionally, “(Chinese) troops remain on high alert at all times, resolutely safeguarding national sovereignty and security and regional peace and stability,” it added.

Back in February, when US warships transited the strait for the first time after Trump starting his second term in office, the PLA had warned, “Troops in the theater are on high alert at all times and are resolute in defending national sovereignty and security as well as regional peace and stability.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/06/2025 – 21:35

US Credibility At Stake In The Senkakus

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US Credibility At Stake In The Senkakus

Authored by Rob Pierce via RealClearWire,

Could a dispute over eight uninhabited islands in the East China Sea really be the catalyst for the next great war?

On May 3, Japanese Air Self-Defense Force fighter jets scrambled from Okinawa in response to a helicopter that took off from a Chinese Coast Guard vessel in an apparent territorial defense posture. The helicopter wasn’t near a port or any of Japan’s 430 inhabited islands. It was flying near the Senkaku Islands.

Long administered by Japan, and recognized by the U.S. as Japanese territory, the Senkakus have emerged as a flash point in the increasingly confrontational Japan-China relationship and the broader U.S.-China competition.

Far from a quarrel over empty rocks, the Senkaku Islands dispute resides at the volatile intersection of China’s rising nationalism, Japan’s strategic vulnerability, and, critically, America’s alliance credibility.

What’s Really at Stake for China

While control of the islands could marginally strengthen China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2AD) posture and expand its Exclusive Economic Zone, the real driver of China’s policy is rooted in its broader goal of undermining the U.S.-led alliance system in Asia. This effort is a critical step in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) pursuit of a grand strategy bent on achieving regional hegemony and ultimately displacing the United States as the world’s leading superpower.

Despite a long and bitter history between Japan and China, the Senkaku Islands, named the Diaoyu Islands in China, were a peripheral issue until 2012. That year, Japan nationalized three of the Senkaku islands by purchasing them from a private owner in an attempt to prevent their development by a hardline Japanese governor. Instead of diffusing tensions, the move led to anti-Japanese protests across China and elevated the islands to a matter of national pride.

But the protests were not a spontaneous outpouring of long simmering anti-Japanese sentiment triggered by the nationalization of three barren rocks; they were state enabled. In a country where public demonstrations are suppressed, the CCP allowed and encouraged widespread displays of outrage. By letting nationalism flare, Beijing cloaked its ensuing policy shift towards the islands it defines as “inalienable“ parts of its territory as a reaction to public sentiment rather than a calculated assertion of power and a component of their strategic ambitions.

That China’s policy shift towards the islands occurred in 2012 was no coincidence. An increasingly self-assured China perceived the U.S. as weakened, viewing the post-2008 Global Financial Crisis shock to U.S. economic power as a strategic opening. And with rising confidence in their military and economic power, the CCP, under the new leadership of Xi Jinping, began shedding its decades long “hide and bide“ strategy in favor of a more aggressive foreign policy with a mandate to “actively accomplish something.”

For China, the Senkaku dispute is less about the intrinsic value of eight uninhabited rocks than about the future of the regional order. China knows that if it can erode Japan’s ability to control the islands without triggering a U.S. response, America’s security guarantees would appear flimsy and negotiable. Beijing’s ultimate Senkaku Islands objective, then, is to expose the vulnerabilities of the U.S.-Japan alliance and thus weaken a cornerstone of American power in Asia. For China to achieve national rejuvenation, it must erode the system of U.S. alliances that stands in its way.

How China Applies Pressure: A Campaign of Attrition

Since 2012, China has transformed the Senkaku Islands dispute from a dormant issue into a calibrated campaign of coercion. China’s incremental pressure strategy aims at weakening Japan’s control and eroding confidence in the U.S.-Japan alliance.

At sea, China relies on constant presence operations. In 2023, Chinese government vessels entered the contiguous zone around the Senkaku Islands on 352 out of 365 days—the highest number since record-keeping began in 2008, according to data from the Japan Coast Guard. Additionally, Chinese Maritime Militia boats often harass Japanese fishermen and shadow Japan Coast Guard patrols.

The PLA Navy (PLAN) has also ramped up its footprint. China’s destroyers, cruisers, and surveillance ships conduct regular patrols near the islands, mapping the battlespace and normalizing their presence. Now the world’s largest navy, PLAN operations are becoming more frequent and more complex.

In the air, Beijing declared an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea in 2013, encompassing the Senkakus. While ignored by the U.S. and Japan, the ADIZ signaled China’s intent to claim the airspace as its own. The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) now regularly flies J-11 fighters, H-6K bombers, and UAVs near the islands, prompting Japan to scramble jets hundreds of times per year.

The sea and air pressure campaign has three key effects:

  1. Military fatigue: Japan is forced to respond to every air and maritime provocation, stretching the bandwidth of its already outnumbered forces.

  2. Nationalist leverage: The CCP frames each action as a defense of historical sovereignty, reinforcing domestic legitimacy while pursuing foreign policy goals.

  3. Alliance erosion: Each incursion probes the edge of U.S. deterrence. If China can undermine Japan’s control without triggering a U.S. response, Beijing wins not through war but through doubt.

This totality of this pressure campaign amounts to strategic salami-slicing, with each slice small enough to avoid escalation, yet collectively difficult for Japan to manage. The Senkakus may be barren, but their symbolic and strategic value makes them a key arena in the broader contest for regional order.

What It Means for America

The U.S. recognizes Japan’s administrative control over the Senkaku Islands and affirms that they fall under Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Security Treaty. Effectively, if China seizes the islands by force, the U.S. is treaty-bound to respond.

While Article 5 doesn’t guarantee automatic military retaliation, decades of bipartisan statements by American presidents, defense secretaries, and INDOPACOM commanders have made it clear that Washington intends for Beijing to believe it would act. That perception of credibility, not to mention the 60,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan, is foundational to U.S. deterrence.

But as we’ve seen, China’s pressure campaign is calibrated to chip away at that foundation without crossing the threshold of war. Each patrol, each air incursion, each renaming of a feature is designed to make Japan look feeble and the U.S. look hesitant. If China can erode Japan’s effective control without firing a shot, and the U.S. does nothing, the message to America’s other allies is that security guarantees are conditional. That is a message that would echo far beyond the East China Sea, and one the United States can ill afford to come to fruition.

The Philippines could reconsider U.S. backing at Second Thomas Shoal. Taiwan’s belief in American resolve would be shaken. Australia and South Korea might rethink America’s security guarantees. The U.S.-led regional order could collapse not through devastating conflict, but through gradual erosion. Moreover, a loss of confidence could spur an arms race. Japan’s new defense strategy hinges on closer U.S. coordination, but a failure to defend the Senkakus could shift Tokyo toward military self-reliance, even revisiting nuclear options long considered taboo.

To prevent China from rewriting the rules of the Indo-Pacific without direct confrontation, the U.S. must maintain the material capacity and political will necessary to deter China from pushing too far. That means continued assurances, both public and private, that the U.S. views the Senkakus as covered under treaty obligations. It also means supporting militarily, through presence patrols or training operations, the Japanese military’s efforts to maintain control over the islands and its territorial waters.

In short, the stakes are high. Not because of what the Senkakus are, but because they represent the credibility of America’s alliance system, the future of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, and the contest between rules and revisionism.

Conclusion

In a 2021 wargame conducted by the Center for a New American Security, the scenario began with a sudden PLA occupation of the Senkakus. Chinese troops landed on the islands, enforced a 50-mile exclusion zone with a ring of ships, submarines, aircraft, and drones, and dared a response. What followed was described as a “slaughter in the East China Sea,” with U.S. and Japanese forces drawn into a high-intensity war neither side initially wanted.

Would China really risk war with the U.S. and such a slaughter over the Senkakus? U.S. planners must assume the answer is yes. The benefit to both China’s domestic politics of quenching the aspirations of its nationalist base and to its broader strategic aims of diminishing U.S. regional influence are evident in the lengths to which China is going to upend the status quo.

A flash point in the global strategic competition between China and the United States, the Senkaku Islands dispute combines a uniquely toxic brew of intense elite and public emotions with high numbers of armed and capable surface and aerial combatants. While China will likely seek to avoid kinetic conflict over the islands, China’s territorial ambitions in the ECS are unlikely to wane, and its actions might very well force America’s hands.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/06/2025 – 21:00

ZeroHedge Store Expands

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ZeroHedge Store Expands

Since launching the ZeroHedge Store last December, extreme mission creep set in. Thanks to your overwhelming support of our hats, shirts, supplements and other cool gear, we’ve rapidly expanded into a MAHA-focused market full of healthy products so you know exactly what you’re putting into your body (see below). 

And after an extremely successful launch of our Rancher-Direct program which resulted in a stampede of customers clamoring for farm-to-table fresh meat, we’ve consolidated the program with two superstar ranches, as well as a new pantry section that has everything from beef tallow chips to mouth-watering seasonings and more. Keep scrolling to see what’s new, and check out our September Special at the bottom for ZeroHedge freebies with your order. Also, check out our no-spam store mailing list for exclusive previews, discounts, and obscure news you might not find here. Kind of like our second channel.

** BEEF ORDERS MUST BE PLACED BY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MONDAY SHIPMENT **

Top Sellers so far:

Steak Lover’s Bundle

Sunday Supper Revival

Family Favorites Lasagna, Meatball & Pasta box

Mangones Organic Dried Mangoes

Whipped Tallow Balm

Without further ado… 

Elkins Cattle Co. 

Elkins supplies some of the absolute best meat on the planet to high-end restaurants. Those steaks you pay $150+ to eat by candlelight? That’s what this is. This meat is rich, juicy, buttery smooth, has the sexiest marbling you’ll ever see. It’s dry-aged for a minimum of 15 days and graded USDA prime. Elkins also has two giraffes – which aren’t on the menu. 

Here’s what you absolutely need to try (ships frozen via 2-day air):

Sunday Supper Revival: 1 bavette (16-18 oz) flap steak, 1 skirt steak, 5lbs of ground beef, 1 London broil, 4-pack of hamburger patties, 2 packages of kabob meat, and one jar of Elkins’ own Rancher’s Gold seasoning – a sweet pepper and garlic mix, kissed with organic cane sugar for a savory-sweet finish that can be bought separately here. 

Great American Grill Out: (for closers only): this box includes; 2 boneless Ribeye steaks, 2 NY Strip steaks, 2 Filet Mignon, 2 packs of hamburger patties (8 total), 3 lbs of ground beef, and 1 jar of Rancher’s Heat seasoning (A bold, spicy pepper blend with an extra kick for those who like it hot.)

Ancestral Beef N’ Bone Bundle: Have you ever had ancestral ground beef? It’s like regular ground beef, only with nutrient-dense liver, kidney, and heart. This box also contains four marrow-packed bones, 3 lbs of regular ground beef, and a 16oz jar of Elkins’ cooking tallow.

Some actual footage of Elkins beef:

Family Favorites Lasagna, Meatball & Pasta box: (clean comfort food to the max): (1) pan of Texas Beef & Three Cheese lasagna with Elkins’ Ranch beef, layered with handmade whole wheat pasta, ricotta, mozzarella, parmesan, and rich beef sauce, (1) giant beef meatball in rich sauce, (1) bag ea. Fusilli, Radiatori & Creste Di Gallo pastas, (1) jar each of Red Sauce & Vodka Sauce. Or if you don’t want the sauces or as much pasta but want 2x the lasagna and meatballs for about the same price, click here.

Ultimate Texas Beef and Pasta Box: Twice the lasagna and meatballs, (2) bags of pasta vs 3, no sauces.

You want to talk high standards? Watch this clip of owner Tim Elkins (longtime ZeroHedge reader) discussing why he’s in the meat business.

Beck Ranch

When we first launched the Rancher-Direct program, Beck Ranch was our #1 seller – delivering consistently amazing boxes to hundreds of customers across the country. Operated by the Beck family in Lonetree, Wyoming – and soon to have its own on-site processing center, Beck Ranch’s cuts are A+ and follow the same grass-fed, no-grain, no added hormone, no antibiotic approach as Elkins. 

Steak Lover’s Bundle: This has been our top selling item in the Rancher-Direct program. Includes 2 Filet Mignon steaks | 2 Ribeye or Bone-In Ribeye Steaks | 2 Baseball, Flat Iron, Ponderosa Steaks or Picahna | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Top Sirloin Steaks. 

10lb Grass-Fed Ground Beef: Dry aged for 14 days, this ground beef is extremely rich and flavorful. 

Ultimate BBQ Bundle: The BBQ Box includes just a bit of everything you need for the grill or smoker. Includes: 2 Ponderosa Steaks | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Chicken Breasts | 2 Pack of Grilling Sausage | 2 lbs Ground Beef | 2 lbs Hamburger Patties | 4oz Beck Ranch Cowboy Seasoning

Home & Pantry

As part of our expansion, we’re proud to offer a variety of products made with clean ingredients – including snacks, pastas, seasonings & personal care items. 

Pasta & Sauce Sampler: (4) types of pasta, (4) amazing sauces. Check ’em out.

Mangones Organic Dried Mangoes: YOU MUST TRY THESE! Ingredients: literally just organic mangoes. No pesticides. No seed oils. No sulfites. No added sugar. No preservatives. Extremely addictive. A+

Microplastic-free teas: From Kindred Harvest. All-natural, flavorful, whole leaf teas. Microplastic free, glue free, and heavy metal tested. Also tastes great.

MASA Tallow Tortilla Chips: Made with organic corn, grass-fed tallow, and sea salt, MASA Yellow chips are the purest form of tortilla chip. No seed oils, no pesticides.

Honey and Black Gold Jelly: 

Seasonings: Both Beck and Elkins also have amazing seasonings you must try. Included in many of the beef boxes. 

Fancy Tallow Soaps (wives and girlfriends will love): 

Tallow Sunscreen & Joint & Muscle Cream:

Whipped Tallow Balm: From Beck and Elkins

Patches!

We had a flood of people asking us to do ZeroHedge velcro-backed patches for your gear. 

And here are a few top sellers this year:

ZeroHedge Hat

ZeroHedge Multitool

IQ Astaxanthin (extremely potent antioxidant)

IQ Colostrum

Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife

September Special!

And please give the store a follow on X…

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/06/2025 – 20:44