Since launching the ZeroHedge Store last December, extreme mission creep set in. Thanks to your overwhelming support of our hats, shirts, supplements and other cool gear, we’ve rapidly expanded into a MAHA-focused market full of healthy products so you know exactly what you’re putting into your body (see below). 

And after an extremely successful launch of our Rancher-Direct program which resulted in a stampede of customers clamoring for farm-to-table fresh meat, we’ve consolidated the program with two superstar ranches, as well as a new pantry section that has everything from beef tallow chips to mouth-watering seasonings and more. Keep scrolling to see what’s new, and check out our September Special at the bottom for ZeroHedge freebies with your order. 

Without further ado… 

Elkins Cattle Co. 

Elkins supplies some of the absolute best meat on the planet to high-end restaurants. Those steaks you pay $150+ to eat by candlelight? That’s what this is. This meat is rich, juicy, buttery smooth, has the sexiest marbling you’ll ever see. It’s dry-aged for a minimum of 15 days and graded USDA prime. Elkins also has two giraffes – which aren’t on the menu. 

Here’s what you absolutely need to try (ships frozen via 2-day air):

Sunday Supper Revival: 1 bavette (16-18 oz) flap steak, 1 skirt steak, 5lbs of ground beef, 1 London broil, 4-pack of hamburger patties, 2 packages of kabob meat, and one jar of Elkins’ own Rancher’s Gold seasoning – a sweet pepper and garlic mix, kissed with organic cane sugar for a savory-sweet finish that can be bought separately here. 

Great American Grill Out: (for closers only): this box includes; 2 boneless Ribeye steaks, 2 NY Strip steaks, 2 Filet Mignon, 2 packs of hamburger patties (8 total), 3 lbs of ground beef, and 1 jar of Rancher’s Heat seasoning (A bold, spicy pepper blend with an extra kick for those who like it hot.)

Ancestral Beef N’ Bone Bundle: Have you ever had ancestral ground beef? It’s like regular ground beef, only with nutrient-dense liver, kidney, and heart. This box also contains four marrow-packed bones, 3 lbs of regular ground beef, and a 16oz jar of Elkins’ cooking tallow.

Some actual footage of Elkins beef:

DO NOT WATCH ON AN EMPTY STOMACH pic.twitter.com/KH0Bxqmx4Q

— ZeroHedge Store (@ZeroHedgeStore) August 30, 2025

Family Favorites Lasagna, Meatball & Pasta box: (clean comfort food to the max): (1) pan of Texas Beef & Three Cheese lasagna with Elkins’ Ranch beef, layered with handmade whole wheat pasta, ricotta, mozzarella, parmesan, and rich beef sauce, (1) giant beef meatball in rich sauce, (1) bag ea. Fusilli, Radiatori & Creste Di Gallo pastas, (1) jar each of Red Sauce & Vodka Sauce. Or if you don’t want the sauces or as much pasta but want 2x the lasagna and meatballs for about the same price, click here.

Ultimate Texas Beef and Pasta Box: Twice the lasagna and meatballs, (2) bags of pasta vs 3, no sauces.

You want to talk high standards? Watch this clip of owner Tim Elkins (longtime ZeroHedge reader) discussing why he’s in the meat business.

Beck Ranch

When we first launched the Rancher-Direct program, Beck Ranch was our #1 seller – delivering consistently amazing boxes to hundreds of customers across the country. Operated by the Beck family in Lonetree, Wyoming – and soon to have its own on-site processing center, Beck Ranch’s cuts are A+ and follow the same grass-fed, no-grain, no added hormone, no antibiotic approach as Elkins. 

Steak Lover’s Bundle: This has been our top selling item in the Rancher-Direct program. Includes 2 Filet Mignon steaks | 2 Ribeye or Bone-In Ribeye Steaks | 2 Baseball, Flat Iron, Ponderosa Steaks or Picahna | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Top Sirloin Steaks. 

10lb Grass-Fed Ground Beef: Dry aged for 14 days, this ground beef is extremely rich and flavorful. 

Ultimate BBQ Bundle: The BBQ Box includes just a bit of everything you need for the grill or smoker. Includes: 2 Ponderosa Steaks | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Chicken Breasts | 2 Pack of Grilling Sausage | 2 lbs Ground Beef | 2 lbs Hamburger Patties | 4oz Beck Ranch Cowboy Seasoning

Home & Pantry

As part of our expansion, we’re proud to offer a variety of products made with clean ingredients – including snacks, pastas, seasonings & personal care items. 

Pasta & Sauce Sampler: (4) types of pasta, (4) amazing sauces. Check ’em out.

Mangones Organic Dried Mangoes: YOU MUST TRY THESE! Ingredients: literally just organic mangoes. No pesticides. No seed oils. No sulfites. No added sugar. No preservatives. Extremely addictive. A+

Microplastic-free teas: From Kindred Harvest. All-natural, flavorful, whole leaf teas. Microplastic free, glue free, and heavy metal tested. Also tastes great.

MASA Tallow Tortilla Chips: Made with organic corn, grass-fed tallow, and sea salt, MASA Yellow chips are the purest form of tortilla chip. No seed oils, no pesticides.

Honey and Black Gold Jelly: 

Seasonings: Both Beck and Elkins also have amazing seasonings you must try. Included in many of the beef boxes. 

Fancy Tallow Soaps (wives and girlfriends will love): 

Tallow Sunscreen & Joint & Muscle Cream:

Whipped Tallow Balm: From Beck and Elkins

Patches!

We had a flood of people asking us to do ZeroHedge velcro-backed patches for your gear. 

And here are a few top sellers this year:

ZeroHedge Hat

ZeroHedge Multitool

IQ Astaxanthin (extremely potent antioxidant)

IQ Colostrum

Anza Red-Black Infinity Handle Knife

September Special!

And please give the store a follow on X…

Authored by Nate Kostar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ether supply on centralized exchanges has plunged around 38% since 2022, as billions flow into spot ETFs and corporate treasuries ramp up their ETH holdings.

Ether (ETH) reserves on centralized exchanges have fallen to the lowest level in three years as demand grows from investment funds and corporate buyers.

According to data from CryptoQuant, reserves have dropped by nearly 10.7 million ETH since peaking at around 28.8 million in September 2022. Holdings now stand at about 17.4 million ETH, with roughly 2.5 million ETH leaving exchanges in the past three months alone.

The shrinking supply comes as new channels for Ether exposure have gained traction. Spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs), launched in July 2024, have since attracted net inflows of more than $13 billion, according to CoinGlass data. Between June and August, the funds pulled in over $10 billion in net inflows, led by a record $5.4 billion in July alone.

Corporate treasuries are also driving demand. Several publicly traded companies have announced ETH treasuries over the past few months, with regular corporate purchases affecting the token’s supply on exchanges.

Ethereum exchange reserves – All exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

ETH Treasury companies on the rise

SharpLink Gaming emerged as one of the earliest public companies to pivot its reserves into Ether in 2025. Backed by a $425 million private placement, the company launched a treasury strategy in May, with holdings in late August reaching 797,704 ETH, worth about $3.5 billion at this writing.

In July, BitMine Immersion Technologies also joined the trend, revealing it had accumulated about 1.86 million ETH — roughly 1.5% of the token’s total supply. A third major entrant, The Ether Machine, announced in September 495,000 ETH in holdings and an upcoming Nasdaq listing.

According to data from Ethereum Treasuries, 17 publicly traded companies are known to hold Ether on their balance sheets, collectively controlling more than 3.6 million ETH.

One key appeal of ETH as a reserve asset is its ability to earn yield, a Bitfinex analyst told Cointelegraph. “Unlike Bitcoin, ETH is both a macro asset and a productivity asset, generating yield via staking and securing over $100 billion in tokenized assets across L2s and DeFi.”

Staking is the process of locking up cryptocurrency to help secure a blockchain network and, in return, earning rewards paid out in that same token.

On Tuesday, Ethereum’s staking entry queue has climbed to its highest level since 2023, with 860,369 ETH worth about $3.7 billion waiting to be staked.

ETH moving into ETFs

Alongside corporate treasuries, Ether is also being absorbed by spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The products saw a slow start after their US debut in 2024, but demand picked up this July as a friendlier regulatory environment for crypto assets supported renewed institutional interest.

That surge is led by BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum ETF (ETHA), which has become one of the fastest-growing ETFs on record, with assets worth over $16 billion on Tuesday.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, spot ETH ETFs collectively hold about $24 billion in assets under management (AUM).

US Ether ETFs. Source: CoinMarketCap

Some analysts believe the demand reflects more than short-term speculation. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer of Sygnum, recently told Cointelegraph:

After an extended period of underperformance relative to Bitcoin and a souring investor sentiment, Ethereum has recently experienced a significant revival in the recognition of both its adoption rate and value proposition.

According to Dori, staking is the next frontier for Ether ETFs. “If spot ETH ETFs were permitted to stake their holdings… the ability to accrue an additional yield within a well-established, regulated and exchange-traded structure would likely make these products more attractive and attract additional assets.”

Unsurprisingly, several ETF issuers have recently moved to add staking features to their Ether funds.

BlackRock filed through Nasdaq to add staking to its iShares Ethereum ETF, while Fidelity has amended its spot Ether ETF proposal to allow a portion of assets to be staked.

The SEC is expected to rule on staking features by October, when final application deadlines come due.

Oil prices continue to decline on concerns that OPEC+ will once again bolster supply at a meeting on Sunday, compounding fears of higher volumes later in the year.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak subsequently said OPEC+ will “look at the current situation as a whole” before making a decision.

Several delegates from the group said it has yet to decide on how to proceed.

Additionally, API reported a surprise (though small) build in crude inventories

API

• Crude +622k (-3.4mm exp)

• Cushing

• Gasoline -4.57mm

• Distillates +3.68mm

DOE

• Crude +2.415mm (-3.4mm exp)

• Cushing +1.59mm – biggest build since Mar 2025

• Gasoline -3.795mm – biggest draw since Apr 2025

• Distillates +1.68mm

The official DOE data shows a very mixed bag with a big surprise crude build, large jump in stocks at the Cushing Hub and a big draw in gasoline stocks….

Source: Bloomberg

With the addition of 509k barrels to the SPR, total commercial crude stocks rose for the first time in 3 weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production remains near record highs despite the plunge in rig counts…

Source: Bloomberg

Algorithmic traders also may have contributed to oil’s slide on Thursday. Trend-following commodity trading advisers have been steadily selling crude since reaching “buying exhaustion” at the $65-a-barrel level, “creating just a few ripples and weighing on prices,” according to Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

“We think a tidal wave is coming next,” Ghali said.

“We expect that algos are now set to imminently sell a massive 40% of their maximum size.”

WTI traded down to two week lows ahead of the official inventory and supply data…

Bloomberg reports that US oil has retreated more than 10% this year as OPEC+ has boosted production targets at a rapid clip to reclaim market share from rival drillers. At the same time, producers from outside the alliance have ramped up output, while concerns about demand have intensified as the Trump administration imposed a wave of trade tariffs.

The combination has spawned widespread predictions for a glut that will swell global stockpiles, pushing many investors to the sidelines until clarity on OPEC’s output plans is achieved this weekend, brokers say.

“We still see the current oversupply in oil markets intensifying,” Samantha Dart, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in a note, forecasting Brent in the low $50s in late 2026.

Will Trump’s trade moves prove brilliant or blow up in America’s face? ZH readers likely know where die-hard Austrian Peter Schiff stands: as the world’s largest importer, the U.S. has no cards to play. But as Brent “Dollar Milkshake” Johnson has long argued, “the world isn’t Austrian”, the dollar’s network effect will not easily be broken, and sometimes American belligerence works… whether we like it or not.

Tonight at 7pm on the ZH home and X account, the two will duke it out while the great Dave Collum moderates.

Tariffs are not about Trade they are about Power and Sovereignty and National Security https://t.co/u9GnTqhrxc

— Santiago Capital (@SantiagoAuFund) July 7, 2025

Ahead of the debate, here’s where Trump’s tariff (and threat of tariffs) stand with some of the largest U.S. trading partners:

Canada & Mexico

• Broad-based 25% tariffs were imposed starting March 4, 2025—but thanks to USMCA exemptions, over 85% of cross-border trade remains unaffected.
• Canada suspended most retaliatory tariffs after receiving exemptions, though around 70% of its own tariffs on U.S. goods remain active per Canadian officials.
• U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs were doubled to 50% by June; Canada countered with plans for additional retaliatory measures if talks falter.
• Courts are challenging the administration’s emergency-authority-based tariffs.

China

• Trump raised tariffs incrementally—from 10% in February/March to a sweeping 34% “reciprocal tariff” in April.
• China responded with equal tariffs (34%) on U.S. imports plus bans and export restrictions on rare-earth elements.
• Earlier this week the US announced it will require TSMC to get special permits for the import of its products manufactured on the Chinese mainland.

India

• Trump has slapped a proposed 50% tariff on Indian imports, partly due to India’s continued Russian oil purchases.
• Analysts (e.g., ICRIER) warn that 70–87% of Indian exports to the U.S. could be severely affected.
• India–Russia relations are strengthening in contrast, with Russia offering support amid U.S. pressure.

Japan & South Korea

• Tariff relief promised in exchange for investment and purchases (e.g., reducing auto tariffs from 25% to 15%) has not been formally enactedl.

EU & UK

• While some “partial exemptions” or reductions were negotiated with the EU and UK, these remain inconsistently documented.
• For the UK, there’s a looming threat of semiconductor tariffs up to 200–300%, though no enforcement has occurred yet.

Brazil

• As of August 1, a 50% tariff on Brazilian products is in force. Brazil has filed a complaint with the WTO and imposed retaliatory duties under its Trade Reciprocity Law.
• Trump framed it as retaliation against Brazil’s judicial actions against Bolsonaro—but the U.S. actually ran a substantial trade surplus with Brazil in 2024.

We’ll see you tonight at 7pm ET, right here on the ZH homepage and X account. It will also stream via our YouTube. 

After earlier this week European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen boasted to The Financial Times that the European Union had “pretty precise plans” for deploying a multinational force to Ukraine, and which is backstopped by the Untied States, the Kremlin has made clear it has flatly rejected such a prospect.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday that Moscow would not even discuss or entertain in any way deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine as part of a future peace deal. There will be no international post-conflict security force “in any format” – she made clear.

“Russia is not going to discuss the fundamentally unacceptable and security-undermining foreign intervention in Ukraine in any form, in any format,” Zakharova told reporters on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.

Suggesting that it’s entirely a waste of time for the West to be talking about such a topic, she said “next time they aim to discuss this topic, they should have a pointer in the form of Russia’s position.”

“Judging by Ukraine’s losses, the European Commission has simply outdone itself,” Zakharova added, at a moment Russia’s ground forces continue to make gains in the east, and even into the more central Dnipropetrovsk region.

And yet Europe is still forging ahead, with French President Emmanuel Macron hosting a summit of European leaders on Thursday. He declared, “We are ready, we the Europeans, to offer the security guarantees to Ukraine and Ukrainians the day that a peace (accord) is signed.”

He called details of guarantees “extremely confidential” but indicated that the preparations had been complete. Various allied defense ministers will take up the issue in the Paris meeting on Thursday. But confidential or not, Russia has clearly already rejected whatever multinational force plan that the Western allies have on the table.

Moscow has consistently made clear its position, stretching back months or even over the last year, but this doesn’t seem to have gotten through to Western capitals.

President Putin while speaking from Beijing Wednesday, after observing Xi’s big military parade along with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, didn’t sound like he’s in a hurry to make compromises at the negotiating table.

He painted a picture of his troops having the clear battlefield momentum and upper-hand, describing that “Ukrainian combat-ready units are staffed at no more than 47-48%,” in a speech. “Ukrainian military is constantly forced to redeploy units from one part of the front, to another,” he said.

That’s when he underscored that if the Ukraine conflict “cannot be resolved peacefully, Russia will be forced to achieve its objectives by military means.”

For the first time, Putin revealed how Ukraine responded when Russia pulled its troops back from Kiev in 2022. pic.twitter.com/cm5bV62eDM

— Rina Lu🇷🇺 (@rinalu_) September 3, 2025

He did say that “If Zelensky is interested in meeting, let him come to Moscow” – but that such a meeting can only happen once clear understandings are reached, and if something substantial can be agreed up, and not just for the sake of optics or having a meeting just to have it.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In the wake of the tragic mass shooting at Annunciation Catholic Church in Minneapolis, where two children were killed and 17 others injured by a deranged transgender identifying individual, a small group of lunatics have sparked widespread outrage by protesting, apparently in defense of trans ideology.

The group positioned themselves directly across the street from the school, where the children were attacked as they prayed,

They heckled Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha as they arrived at the church Wednesday to meet with victims’ families and pay respects. The ‘protesters’ held signs reading “Hate Won’t Make America Great.”

Imagine protesting outside a church kids were murdered at because you want to defend the killer’s trans ideology.

Sick. Just sick. pic.twitter.com/MoZldJbHjM

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) September 3, 2025

Someone has also placed a Pride/transgender flag next to signs reading “PROTECT KIDS NOT GUNS.”

These lunatics are just sick.

If they intentionally wanted everyone to hate them, what would they do differently? https://t.co/lLn7JRTGb5

— J🌞e (@JerseyJoe74) September 4, 2025

The group shouted insults at Vance, including “You’re a coward” and “Do better.” Their apparent motives blended calls for gun reform with support for LGBTQ+ rights, seemingly in response to the backlash against the trans community following the shooting.

The display of the trans flag at the site of a tragedy perpetrated by a trans-identified individual was widely interpreted as a provocative statement in defense of transgender visibility amid criticism.

The trans flag is a giant middle finger to the Church and victims.

You stay classy, Democrats. https://t.co/4ROig5cuo9

— Amy Curtis (@RantyAmyCurtis) September 3, 2025

The attack was carried out by 23-year-old Robin Westman, who fired through the church’s stained-glass windows during a back-to-school Mass, using firearms inscribed with phrases like “kill Donald Trump.” The shooter, who had a documented fascination with mass killings and mental health struggles, died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound at the scene. The FBI is investigating the incident as an act of domestic terrorism and a hate crime targeting Catholics.

It is galling and shocking the number of people on the left who are so cavalier about violence against some religious people.
The assassination plot on Alito, etc, led to MSM anchors saying “quit whining that your rulings had consequences.”
The trans murders at a Tennessee… https://t.co/O50z2Ya1Jl

— Tim Carney (@TPCarney) September 3, 2025

The shooting has reignited national debates on gun violence, mental health, and the role of transgender ideology in such events. Conservative commentators have pointed to a pattern of mass shootings involving individuals identifying as transgender or non-binary, including incidents in Nashville, Lakewood, and Colorado. Meanwhile, Democrats, including Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, have urged against “villainizing” the trans community.

These ghoulish trans activists are akin to the Westboro Baptist Church protestors.

Remember all the outcries about them? All those same folks are silent here. It was never about decency. https://t.co/jNvxMGKnJp

— Tyler (@TM0s41) September 4, 2025

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

The Hill has obtained the invitation list for an exclusive White House gathering later today in the newly renovated Rose Garden. This event will follow a White House event on artificial intelligence hosted by First Lady Melania Trump.

Among those set to attend are Apple CEO Tim Cook, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, and Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg.

“The Rose Garden Club at the White House is the hottest place to be in Washington, or perhaps the world. The president looks forward to welcoming top business, political, and tech leaders for this dinner and the many dinners to come on the new, beautiful Rose Garden patio,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told the media outlet. 

President Trump hosting a dinner for the who’s who of tech CEO’s at in the newly renovated Rose Garden Thursday.

I took a photo of the Rose Garden after getting out of the Oval Office today for meeting between President Trump and the President of Poland. #RoseGarden #WhiteHouse pic.twitter.com/23OkYjm0DR

— Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) September 4, 2025

Noticeably absent, according to The Hill, was Elon Musk, whose strained relationship with President Trump earlier this year likely kept him off the guest list.

Trump last night, commenting about Musk: “He’s got 80% super genius and then 20% he’s got some problems.” 

President @realDonaldTrump reveals where things stand personally with @elonmusk…

These are two brilliant men and great Americans. I, like millions of others, really would love to see them get the band back together soon 👇 pic.twitter.com/pywib1gJo0

— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) September 3, 2025

The snub is reminiscent of the Biden-Harris administration’s decision not to invite Musk to a 2021 White House EV summit.

Other attendees include many top tech leaders and CEOs, such as Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai, founder and CEO of Google, respectively; Safra Catz, CEO of Oracle; David Limp, CEO of Blue Origin; Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron Technology; and Greg Brockman, President of OpenAI. 

White House AI czar David Sacks will be in attendance, along with Jared Isaacman, CEO of Shift4, who recently withdrew his nomination to lead NASA.

Following an ugly JOLTS print, a weaker than expected ADP employment report, and Challenger Grey data showing the weakest hiring plans on record for an August, initial jobless claims rose modestly from 229k to 237k (more than the 230k expected) – the highest since June, but still merely in the same range it has been oscillating in for the last four years…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims dipped last week, but remain above the 1.9 million American Maginot line…

Source: Bloomberg

After JOLTS showed government employment weakness, continuing jobless claims in the ‘Deep TriState’ are trending higher still (at highest since Dec 2021)…

Source: Bloomberg

So while jobless claims ‘miss’ made it 4 for 4 labor market disappointments this week, the claims print is certainly nothing to panic over.

Ahead of Friday’s all-important payrolls print (and revisions), this morning’s ADP employment report may see more attention as a less ‘manipulated’ data point.

The headline print was expected to slow to 68k in August (from +104k in July and -23k in June) but in fact slowed further, adding just 54k jobs…

Source: Bloomberg

Leisure and hospitality and construction performed well despite a broader month-over-month slowdown in hiring.

“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” according to Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

“A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.“

Goods and Services jobs both saw slowing in August…

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing, Transportation and Education saw job losses in August…

“I think at this point, it’s clear that the labor market is slightly cooling down,” said Nataliia Lipikhina, head of EMEA equity strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank.

“The market is now pricing a 97% chance of the Fed cut. What could change that potentially is if we have very strong inflation data, but we’re not seeing that yet.”

‘Job Stayers’ saw incomes rise at their slowest pace since June 2021 while ‘job changers’ are still seeing higher and rising incomes…

In separate figures, hiring plans fell to the weakest level for any August on record and intended job cuts mounted, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,

• The IISS warns Europe faces gaps in air defense, long-range missiles, and intelligence that could cost up to $1 trillion to address.

• A U.S. defense review may cut American troop presence in Europe by up to 30%, shifting focus to Asia-Pacific.

• European leaders are pledging billions in new defense spending but struggle with slow procurement, recruitment shortages, and strained budgets.

European nations could face a trillion-dollar rearmament bill in the face of a looming Russian threat and an imminent US defense review that could see Washington dramatically draw down forces on the continent, according to a report released on September 3.

The 106-page report, by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), points to gaps across the board: in production, intelligence, and military hardware such as long-range missiles or air and missile defense.

“Chief among the reasons for this greater urgency are Russia’s military threat and uncertainty over the United States’ commitment to defending European allies,” it says.

“While strategic assessments vary across European nations about how quickly Russian forces could constitute a direct threat to NATO Europe, their time frames generally range between two and five years.”

Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s Global Force Posture Review is expected to be published this month and lay out a shift in military resources from Europe to Asia/Pacific.

“Some NATO officials believe a US troops reduction of up to 30 percent could be possible,” says the report, entitled Progress and Shortfalls in Europe’s Defense: An Assessment.

Rising Military Budgets

European leaders have made plans this year to respond to these challenges. In March, a European Union summit pledged to spend billions on defense amid what EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called “a watershed moment for Europe.”

EU-backed loans of up to 150 billion euros (160 billion dollars) have been made available to member states to beef up their forces, and Eurozone debt rules have been relaxed when applied to military spending.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized European NATO allies for not spending enough on defense and relying too heavily on US military power. But he has recently praised them for pledging to spend more, particularly after the NATO summit in June when members agreed to raise defense budgets to 5 percent of GDP.

But the IISS report notes that it’s not just a question of money. A key problem will be building capacity.

“Europe’s defense industries continue to face challenges in increasing production fast enough, while many European armies cannot meet their recruitment and retention targets,” it says.

The IISS report underlines Integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) as an area where Europe is particularly vulnerable. Current and serving US military commanders have also told RFE/RL that Europe’s aerial shield is not prepared to meet the scale of the threat from Russia.

“You see what has happened in big cities in Ukraine. This also would happen in some of the big cities of Europe,” Philip Breedlove, former NATO supreme commander in Europe, told RFE/RL in April.

Long-Range Missiles

Another weakness highlighted in the IISS report is in long-range missiles.

European countries do have highly effective air-launched cruise missiles, such as the Anglo-French Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles, or Germany’s Taurus system. Non-NATO member Ukraine has recently showcased its new Flamingo cruise missiles.

But “only a handful of European allies currently possess ground-based long-range precision-fire systems, while in the maritime domain, only France and the UK hold 1,000-kilometer-range naval land-attack cruise missiles,” says the report.

“The European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) project is potentially the most significant European effort to extend its conventional land-attack capability up to and perhaps beyond 2,000 km,” it adds.

The project, launched by France, Germany, Poland, and Italy, was later joined by Britain, Sweden, and the Netherlands.

Other weaknesses noted include a lack of surveillance and intelligence aircraft, “sovereign hyperscale cloud-computing capacity,” and slow, uncoordinated procurement.

The spending requirements come as European governments are already facing intense pressures on non-military spending in sensitive areas such as health, education, and social benefits.

Meeting these challenges will, the report concludes, “require many NATO European allies to take major financial risks and make very difficult political decisions.”