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McDonald’s CFO Reveals Working-Poor Customers “Skipping” Breakfast 

McDonald’s CFO Reveals Working-Poor Customers “Skipping” Breakfast 

McDonald’s beat Bloomberg Consensus estimates on both earnings and revenue for the second quarter, but that’s not the most interesting part. What’s more intriguing is that executives admitted breakfast has become the chain’s weakest-performing daypart, signaling a troubling shift in low-income customer behavior

JPMorgan analyst John Ivankoe asked CFO Ian Borden about the “weakness” in the lower-income consumer base and how this may be a “leading indicator for the US.”

Borden responded by saying: “With the low-income consumer, despite improvements in wage gains, real incomes are down. So real incomes are down with the low-income consumer. That absolutely is going to put pressure on visits into the QSR industry.” 

More interesting, Borden explained how the situation of “unease with low-income consumers” has resulted in these customers “skipping a daypart like breakfast, or they’re trading down either within our menu, or they’re trading down to eating at home.” 

Here’s the conversation between Ivankoe and Borden on the earnings call:

Question via JPM John Ivankoe:

Hi, thank you. The industry has been talking about weakness in the consumer base and lower income consumer base really since at least the second half of 2023. So it’s been quite some time. So I’m really hoping for some diagnostics, I guess, at this point in terms of why that’s happening. If I were to take a step back and look at your compression of pricing versus grocery year-on-year total employment gas prices, some of the normal pressures that would be affecting quick-service traffic quite frankly don’t exist. I mean, at least from a macro perspective. So can you explain, I guess, what’s happening in the U.S. and is U.S. potentially a leading indicator for other major markets or might other major markets in some ways be a leading indicator for the U.S.? Thank you.

Answer via MCD CFO Ian Borden:

Well, I think if I had an easy quick answer to that, I’d probably be working in the government because I think that is a big question for all of us to try to unpack. But I would just note a few things. With the low income consumer, despite improvements in wage gains, real incomes are down. So real incomes are down with the low income consumer. That absolutely is going to put pressure on visits into the QSR industry.

Second thing is, there’s a lot of anxiety and unease with that low income consumer. I think we could all speculate the reasons for that, probably tariffs and the impact that might have, questions around employment situation, but it’s clear from the data that there’s also beside real incomes Being down that sentiment is being down is down. And the result of that is you’re seeing people either skip occasion, so they’re skipping a daypart like breakfast or they’re trading down either within our menu or they’re trading down to eating at home. So those would be sort of my simple kind of read on what’s going on. But I’d say it’s — that’s as much conjecture as it is being able to point to specific things, it’s a big question for the industry.

For low-income consumers already grappling with years of shrinking real wages under the Biden-Harris regime, spending $8 – $10, if not sometimes even $12 – $15, on a McDonald’s breakfast meal is a significant outlay, especially when compared to eating at home, which costs a fraction of that – and is much healthier. 

Translation: McDonald’s serves millions daily, primarily working-class, lower-income, and time-starved consumers across 13,500 stores in the U.S. When these customers start cutting back on breakfast, it’s a flashing warning sign for the broader U.S. economy. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 15:05

Files Of A Would-Be Assassin – Thomas Crooks’ Internet Search History Revealed

Files Of A Would-Be Assassin – Thomas Crooks’ Internet Search History Revealed

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

Headline USA has obtained a partial internet search history of alleged would-be Trump assassin Thomas Crooks. Read it here for the first time.

The search history comes from a trove of data from the Community College of Allegheny County (CCAC), where Crooks attended from 2022 to 2024—graduating in the spring of last year with an associate degree in engineering science. The search history is only for the times Crooks was using CCAC wifi, which was about three days per week when school was in session. The vast majority of his internet footprint, including the countless hours he spent online at his house, is still a mystery.

CBS News and The New York Times also obtained the CCAC search history, and both outlets published stories about it last month. However, they didn’t publish the raw data.

When this author saw the CBS article, he asked the CCAC for the same search history information. In response, a CCAC official provided four files of “Graylog” data, which only showed jumbled-up code. The CCAC official said that CBS and New York Times both “reversed engineered” the Graylog code to make it readable.

Eventually, this reporter was able to find a computer whiz to do the same. Apparently, deciphering the data was simple—just a matter of renaming the files and running the script again.

While CBS reported many of the pertinent facts about Crooks’s search history, the raw data  does reveal previously unreported information.

For instance, Crooks visited mainstream news sites such as The Hill, Aljazeera, CNBS, The Wall Street Journal and CNN, along with more niche sites such as compositesworld.com and foodsafetynews.com. He also visited the State Department’s website, www.state.gov, once on Oct. 10 at 12:50 p.m.—a visit that wasn’t reported by CBS or the Times. That visit occurred right after Crooks was browsing winteriscoming.net, which is a Game of Thrones fan site.

Even at the college campus, Crooks seemed most interested in gaming sites. He visited PlaySimple, Discord, and Xbox Game Pass frequently. Meanwhile, when he wasn’t YouTube, his social media activity included Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit.

Crooks was apparently a sports fan, too, visiting sites such as ESPN and a Pittsburgh Steelers fan site. One seemingly bizarre site is the South African-based sports betting service appclap.org. Crooks visited that site on Jan. 24, 2024, which was one of his busiest days on the CCAC network. As CBS News noted, Crooks conducted at least 1,364 searches that day. After that, he consistently used a VPN and other privacy tools that hid his footprint.

“After Jan. 24, 2024, there are 25 days with activity, but nearly all of them have just a few requests, all of them to Mullvad. Whatever he was viewing on those days is not in the logs,” CBS noted last month, also reporting on the use of his encrypted email service: Mailfence.com.

While Headline USA has yet to uncover any new trends that could shed light on Crooks’s mindset and actions leading up to his death, this publication is releasing the data in full so readers can conduct their own research. Note the files are numbered 1, 2, 3 and 5. A CCAC official said File 4 didn’t have any data, while File 6 only reflected his use of a VPN.

tc_graylog_sites_visited01

tc_graylog_600_649_results02

tc_graylog_650_699_results03

tc_graylog_700_769_results05

Headline USA is also the outlet that published Crooks’s CCAC emails—which can be downloaded here—his toxicology and autopsy reports, and the 911 call his father made to police on the day of the Trump shooting.

Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 14:45

Trump Advised To Nominate Temporary Fed Governor To Fill Open Seat

Trump Advised To Nominate Temporary Fed Governor To Fill Open Seat

Bloomberg reports that Trump’s advisors are “encouraging” him to nominate a temporary Fed governor to fill Ariana Kugler’s soon-to-be vacant seat on the central bank’s board. Naming a governor to serve out the term for the seat opening soon, set to expire in January 2026, would give Trump additional time to interview candidates to serve as chair when Powell’s tenure leading the central bank ends in May of next year. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler announced last week that she plans to vacate her role on Aug. 8.

The two Kevins

The Fed pick is likely to already work in government, be a short term choice and have been previously vetted by the US Senate for a Federal job. This person would still needs to clear the Senate confirmation process, a vetting process that has traditionally taken months, but could be expedited if Trump pressures lawmakers to quickly fill the seat.

In this case, neither Kevin Warsh or Kevin Hassett will fill the job. Warsh is not working for the government now and Hassett’s current position as the the Director of the National Economic Council does not require Senate confirmation.

Trump is slated to meet with advisers on Wednesday about the Fed pick, Bloomberg reported.

Trump on Tuesday said he would make his decision for a replacement for Kugler this week as he looks to make his imprint on the central bank. No decision should be deemed final until announced by Trump, a White House official said.

Trump also said that he’s weighing whether to fill the seat with a short-term pick or someone he would likely elevate to Fed chair next year: “We’ll either decide on one for permanence or the four-month period — the term. You know, there’s a term of about a number of months,” Trump told reporters at a White House event on Tuesday.

Kugler’s early departure hands Trump a sooner-than-anticipated opportunity to fill the Fed board with a governor who more closely aligns with his preference for lower interest rates.

Among the broader group of 19 policymakers who participate in FOMC meetings, a majority signaled in June that they expect two rate cuts this year, a projection that makes a move in September a strong possibility. 

As a reminder, two Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both Trump appointees, voted against the July decision to hold rates steady, the first time two members of the board had dissented since 1993.

“We’re looking at the Fed chair, and that’s down to four people right now,” Trump said Tuesday. “Well, I can tell you because I’ve already said, there’s two Kevins and two other people.”

Interestingly, shortly after 1130ET, the odds of Kevin Warsh becoming The Fed Chair plunged…

…and at the same time, Treasury yioelds spiked across the curve. There was no actual news (headline) catalysts behind either move.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 13:05

Five Soldiers Shot At Fort Stewart In Georgia; Suspect In Custody

Five Soldiers Shot At Fort Stewart In Georgia; Suspect In Custody

Five U.S. Soldiers were shot on Fort Stewart, Georgia, within the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team complex, according to Fort Stewart Hunter Army Airfield’s Facebook page. 

The active shooter incident occurred late Wednesday morning (around 11:35 am ET). All injured Soldiers received on-site treatment before being transported to Winn Army Community Hospital.

The shooter was apprehended almost immediately, and there is no ongoing threat to the military base, according to Fort Stewart officials, adding that a lockdown was lifted. 

Here are more details: 

Law enforcement was dispatched for a possible shooting in the 2nd ABCT complex at 10:56 a.m. The shooter was apprehended at 11:35 a.m.

The installation was locked down at 11:04 a.m. and Fort Stewart lifted the lockdown of the main cantonment area at 12:10 p.m. 2nd ABCT complex is still locked down.

Emergency medical personnel were dispatched to treat the wounded Soldiers at 11:09 a.m.

Fort Stewart is home to the 3rd Infantry Division of the U.S. Army. Located in southeast Georgia, it is the largest Army installation east of the Mississippi River.

The base houses several key units:

  • 3rd Infantry Division Headquarters

  • 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team

  • 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team

  • 3rd Division Sustainment Brigade

  • 3rd Combat Aviation Brigade

No details have been released about the shooter or whether they were a member of the U.S. military. 

Scenes from the ground:

*Developing… 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 12:57

“Falsified Bank Documents And Property Records”: Sen. Adam Schiff Under Criminal Investigation For Mortgage Fraud

“Falsified Bank Documents And Property Records”: Sen. Adam Schiff Under Criminal Investigation For Mortgage Fraud

How does the old expression go? “When you point one finger at someone, three point back at you?”

Sen. Adam Schiff – best known for dramatizing Trump’s Ukraine call during his first term, misidentifying evidence in texts, overstating “collusion” findings, and defending a FISA memo later found to contain false statements – is under criminal investigation for alleged mortgage fraud, according to a Trump administration source cited by Fox News.

Laura Ingraham revealed the news on “The Ingraham Angle” last night, reporting that the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Maryland is conducting the probe.

The investigation follows a criminal referral from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to the Department of Justice, according to Fox News. FHFA Director William Pulte alleged that Schiff “has, in multiple instances, falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms,” which he said could endanger the stability of the U.S. mortgage system.

According to the FHFA, Schiff and his wife purchased a home in Potomac, Maryland, in 2003, financing it with a $610,000 Fannie Mae-backed loan by declaring it their primary residence. However, Schiff also claimed a condo in Burbank, California, as his primary residence, even receiving a $7,000 California homeowner’s tax exemption.

Fox News writes that in a 2011 affidavit, Schiff certified the Maryland property as his primary residence. The FHFA notes that this designation was reaffirmed in multiple refinancing filings through 2013, despite Schiff serving in Congress representing California.

A 2023 spokesperson said, “Adam’s primary residence is Burbank, California, and will remain so when he wins the Senate seat.” Another comment to CNN explained that both the Maryland and California addresses were listed as primary residences “because they are both occupied throughout the year and to distinguish them from a vacation property.”

FHFA investigators and Fannie Mae’s financial crimes unit concluded Schiff showed “a sustained pattern of possible occupancy misrepresentation” across five loans. Pulte indicated potential violations of federal laws, including wire, mail, and bank fraud.

Schiff’s office did not respond to requests for comment.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 12:25

The Low Beta Boom: Sidestepping The Dotcom Bust

The Low Beta Boom: Sidestepping The Dotcom Bust

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Following the release of our article The High Beta Melt Up- Echoes of 1999, we received a few emails complaining that we left our readers hanging. They wanted to know how investors could have shifted their holdings from high beta and momentum stocks to sidestep massive losses when the dot-com bubble burst. In the first article, we mentioned that low beta stocks performed well during the bust, but we didn’t provide details.  

The first graph below from the article shows that shifting from high to low beta stocks at the end of the dotcom bubble (2000) would have been a brilliant move.

The second graph steps back and reveals that while low beta stocks were flat on average during the 1998-2000 boom, their return over the entire boom-bust cycle (1998-2003) was +35%. Conversely, the highest beta decile, which increased by 111% during the boom, earned a modest 2% return over the entire period.

Coaching A Portfolio

Managing a portfolio is like coaching a sports team. A coach needs to consistently assess the game environment and decide who sits and who plays. Equally important, they must be prepared to change players as the game evolves.

Similarly, as portfolio managers, we need to invest for today’s market while maintaining a plan for tomorrow.  Accordingly, let’s look beyond high and low-beta stocks and examine how other stock factors performed during the dotcom boom-bust era. This will provide a roster of the types of stocks that may thrive if the current speculative melt-up melts down.

As we did in the original article, the monthly decile data is from Kenneth French and Dartmouth.  Their database includes all stocks traded on the NYSE, Nasdaq, and the AMEX exchanges.

With that, we evaluate how some stock factors performed during the 1995-2003 market cycle.

Growth Vs. Value

To determine what constitutes growth and value stocks, we use the traditional price-to-book value ratio. However, the French data computes the ratio in the reverse order, book to price. Thus, as we present below, the lower deciles are tilted toward growth-oriented stocks, while the higher deciles indicate more value-oriented stocks.

Like we saw with beta, in the rally leading up to the melt-up (1995-1998), both growth and value performed similarly. Also, like our beta analysis, and as we show below, the market leaned toward growth stocks at the expense of value stocks during the 1998-2000 boom. Interestingly, bucking the general trend, the highest decile of value stocks did much better than the lower deciles of value stocks.

The following graph charts the price ratio of growth (lowest decile) to value (highest decile) through the entire cycle. Other than the melt-up from 1998-2000, the top decile of value stocks were clear outperformers versus the most growth-oriented stocks.

Lastly, the final chart shows that despite the underperformance during the boom, value investors who stuck with value stocks for the entire cycle fared much better than growth investors. However, the return differentials are much less evident for many of the deciles between the top and bottom. Thus, the data argue that deep value, not just value, was an investor preference during the period.

Market Cap

Next, we assess performance during the dotcom era using deciles of market capitalization. The lowest decile includes the smallest stocks, while the highest decile includes the largest. 

This analysis of market cap is a little different than what we have calculated with beta and growth/value. In the pre-melt-up period, ranging from 1995 to October 1998, there was a large performance difference by market cap. The top decile of large-cap stocks grew by 180%, surpassing the small-cap deciles by over 100%.

However, the lowest two deciles were the best performers during the melt-up from October 1998 to March 2000. Furthermore, after the market peaked, that sector’s performance continued to grow through the bust and recovery. As shown below, the lowest decile rose 77% during the dotcom boom and over 200% through the 1998-2003 cycle. The largest decile of market-cap stocks posted a slight loss for the cycle.

In the recent era covering 2023 until the 15% decline in April, i.e., the reign of the Magnificent Seven, the top decile by market cap increased by 51%, while the smallest decile by size declined by 14%.

As we show below the large cap S&P 500 (SPY) handily outperformed the small-cap Russell 1000 (IWM).

Will the current boom and eventual bust be the time to shift toward small companies?

Profitability

One of the recent themes, alongside high beta, that has emerged is profitability. Many of the stocks with the most impressive gains over the past three months have little to no profits. Similarly, the 1998-2000 boom was driven by stocks with poor profitability. At the time, investors were not concerned about current earnings. They were more captivated by potential future profitability.

The graph below shows that from 1995 to 2003, the least profitable decile grossly underperformed the highest decile stocks. However, during the 1998-2000 boom, the least profitable companies took charge.

The lowest decile beat every other decile by at least 50%. This is highlighted in the second graph.

Despite the enormous gains from 1998 to 2000, the least profitable decile fell by 21% from 1998 to 2003. The highest decile was up 15% through the same period.  

Review

Before looking at recent performance, let’s sum up our findings from the dotcom era.

  • Pre-boom persistent bullish trend (1995 to October 1998): the market preferred the largest and most highly profitable companies. It was relatively indifferent regarding beta and valuation.

  • Dotcom boom (October 1998 to March 2000): the market preferred stocks with the lowest profitability and highest betas. The other factors were mixed.

  • Dotcom bust (March 2000 through 2003), the market preferred higher profitability, low beta, smaller size, and value-oriented companies.

Today’s Potential Boom And Tomorrow’s Bust

The table below shows which factors were favored or out of favor during the bullish trend leading up to the tariff-induced decline and during the recent recovery. As shown, growth, large market cap, and high profitability were preferred before April. Not surprisingly, those traits characterize the Magnificent Seven. However, since the April lows, high beta and low profitability have been driving the market.

As a reminder, during the run-up to the 1998-2000 dot-com boom, the market favored large and profitable companies. Similarly, during the boom, low profitability and high beta were preferred.

If this current highly speculative trend continues into bubble territory like the dot-com era, we should consider that the winners and losers of a possible coming crash could share similar characteristics to those that outperformed during the dot-com bust. If so, smaller, low-beta, value-focused stocks with high profitability are likely to perform well.

Summary

Investor behaviors and preferences during the dotcom boom-bust and the current environment are similar. It’s too early to label the recent speculative activity as a boom on the same scale as the late 1990s. If a correction happens today, the fallout would probably be much smaller than what occurred 25 years ago.

However, if this speculative desire for high beta and lower profitability continues, we should consider gathering a list of stock factors and stocks that can help us grow our wealth as the broader markets and more speculative stocks correct themselves.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 12:05

“Dialogue Will Prevail”: Unexpected Scenes Of Witkoff & Putin Envoy Strolling Through Moscow Park

“Dialogue Will Prevail”: Unexpected Scenes Of Witkoff & Putin Envoy Strolling Through Moscow Park

Bloomberg is reporting Wednesday that President Donald Trump suggested he would hike tariffs on more countries buying Russian energy, including China, as the deadline for ceasefire looms, and as US envoy Steve Witkoff is in Moscow trying to make headway with President Putin.

Witkoff’s talks with Putin lasted three hours, according to Russian media, after Witkoff landed in the country early on Wednesday. Images in Russian media showed the two men smiling and shaking hands in an ornate, gilded hall – after having met for several rounds of meetings spanning prior months.

Getty Images

The Kremlin in follow-up called it “constructive and useful” – according to TASS. They discussed the ongoing war in Ukraine, RIA Novosti stated.

Last month, Trump’s outlook turned more dire and negative on the chances for peace. “We thought we had [the war] settled numerous times, and then President Putin goes out and starts launching rockets into some city like Kyiv and kills a lot of people in a nursing home or whatever,” he had said.

And last week witnessed the single deadliest airstrikes on Kiev since the war’s start – with the death toll having risen to 32 after another man recently died of his injuries, following the collapse of a nine-story apartment that was struck.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky has of course welcomed the prospect tougher US sanctions and tariffs on nations buying Russian oil. He has made clear Ukraine’s perspective that Putin would be forced into a serious peace deal if his war machine ran out of money.

Wednesday saw a fresh Russian attack in the central region of Zaporizhzhia, reportedly striking a holiday camp which left two dead and 12 wounded. “There’s no military sense in this attack. It’s just cruelty to scare people,” Zelensky said in the aftermath.

As for the dialogue with Trump’s envoy Witkoff, part of it took place through conversation with Putin’s economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev, with the two taking a relaxed stroll through a public park in Moscow, which apparently caught some random Muscovites by surprise.

So the Kremlin appears to be sending calm messaging, likely in hopes that Trump will hold off on implementing the more dire and drastic of consequences and threats.

Dmitriev has at the same time said he is confident Moscow and Washington can find common ground through diplomacy and honest dialogue. The CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) took to X after the Witkoff meeting and thanked his followers in English for “kind wishes for a successful visit of Steve Witkoff to Moscow,” adding that “Dialogue will prevail.”

Will it? Let’s hope so.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 11:45

Disney Earnings: Pay TV Weakness Overshadows Strength In Parks & Streaming

Disney Earnings: Pay TV Weakness Overshadows Strength In Parks & Streaming

Disney shares are trading lower in premarket following Q3 results that were broadly in line but revealed underlying softness. The company raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $5.85 (from $5.75), ahead of the Bloomberg Consensus $5.77 estimate. While adjusted EPS of $1.61 beat consensus ($1.46), investor sentiment was dampened by continued deterioration in the conventional entertainment TV segment, which posted a sharp year-over-year decline. The theme here is that this segment-level weakness overshadowed strength in parks and streaming

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows Disney’s revenue rose 2.1% year-over-year to $23.68 billion in the quarter ended June 28, in line with consensus estimates. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.61 per share, topping the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $1.46.

Overshadowing Disney’s strong performance in its theme parks and streaming businesses was a sharp decline in conventional entertainment TV, where income plunged 28%, and a loss from the Disney film studio. Income at the theme parks division grew 13% in the quarter to $2.52 billion, while revenue rose 8%. The streaming segment delivered a quarterly profit of $346 million.

Here’s a breakdown of Disney’s Q3 financials and subscriber metrics, comparing actual results to both year-over-year (y/y) performance and Bloomberg Consensus estimates:

Headline Results

  • Adjusted EPS: $1.61 Up from $1.39 y/y, Beats estimate of $1.46

  • Revenue: $23.65B +2.1% y/y, Marginal miss vs. estimate of $23.68B

Revenue by Segment

  • Entertainment: $10.70B, +1.2% y/y, Below estimate of $10.82B

  • Sports (mainly ESPN): $4.31B, -5.5% y/y, Missed estimate of $4.44B

  • Experiences (Theme Parks, Cruises, etc.): $9.09B, +8.3% y/y, Beat estimate of $8.87B

  • Eliminations (internal sales): -$448M, Down 21% y/y (non-core line item)

Operating Income by Segment

  • Total Operating Income: $4.58B, +8.3% y/y, Beat estimate of $4.47B

  • Entertainment: $1.02B, -15% y/y, Below estimate of $1.11B → weak performance in TV/film

  • Sports: $1.04B, +29% y/y, Beat estimate of $961.7M → strong profitability at ESPN

  • Experiences: $2.52B, +13% y/y, Beat estimate of $2.44B → theme parks continue to outperform

Streaming Metrics

Disney+ Total Subscribers:

  • 127.8M +1.4% QoQ

  • Slight miss vs. estimate of 127.97M

  • Domestic (US/Canada): 57.8M (flat QoQ) — missed 58.73M

  • International: 69.9M (+2.5% QoQ) — beat 69.2M

Hulu Total Subscribers:

  • 55.5M +1.5% QoQ, beat 55.18M

  • Hulu SVOD only: 51.2M (+1.8%), beat

  • Hulu Live TV + SVOD: 4.3M (-2.3%), missed

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)

  • Disney+ ARPU: $7.86 (+1.2% QoQ), beat $7.43

  • Hulu SVOD ARPU: $12.40 (+0.3% QoQ), missed $12.83

  • Hulu Live TV + SVOD ARPU: $100.27 (+0.3% QoQ), missed $100.69

Disney’s Q4 and full-year forecasts both suggest solid profitability momentum: 

Disney Q4 Forecast Summary:

  • Disney+ Subscribers: Expected to see a modest quarter-over-quarter increase, roughly in line with the +1.6% estimate.

  • Total Streaming (Disney+ + Hulu): Forecasts net subscriber growth of over 10 million, driven primarily by Hulu, benefiting from the recently expanded Charter distribution deal.

Disney 2025 Full-Year Outlook Summary:

  • Sees adjusted EPS $5.85, saw $5.75, estimate $5.77 (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Sees entertainment direct-to-consumer operating income $1.3 billion, estimate $1.22 billion

  • Still sees entertainment operating income growth double-digit percentage, estimate +24.2%

  • Sees experiences operating income +8%, saw +6% to +8%, estimate +7.5%

  • Still sees sports operating income +18%, estimate +17.4%

  • Sees cruise line pre-opening expense of about $185 million, with about $50 million 4Q

  • Sees equity loss from India JV about $200 million from purchase accounting amortization

In markets, Disney shares are slightly lower in premarket trading. On the year, shares are up 6% as of Tuesday’s close. Shares are trading around Covid lows.

In a separate announcement, Disney revealed that the National Football League will acquire a 10% equity stake in ESPN.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 10:00

In Latest Empty Promise, Apple To Announce Another $100 Billion Investment In US Manufacturing

In Latest Empty Promise, Apple To Announce Another $100 Billion Investment In US Manufacturing

President Donald Trump will announce that AI laggard Apple will commit to spend another $100 billion on domestic manufacturing, the latest (unforceable and thus meaningless) pledge by the tech giant to increase US production of its products as it seeks to avoid punishing tariffs on its flagship iPhones.

The announcement scheduled for 4:30pm ET at the White House on Wednesday includes a new manufacturing program designed to bring more of Apple’s supply chain to the US, with an eye toward manufacturing additional critical components domestically, according to a White House official who detailed the announcement on the condition of anonymity.

Tim Apple and Donald Trump

“President Trump’s America First economic agenda has secured trillions of dollars in investments that support American jobs and bolster American businesses,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement. “Today’s announcement with Apple is another win for our manufacturing industry that will simultaneously help reshore the production of critical components to protect America’s economic and national security.”

As Bloomberg reminds us, earlier this year, Trump warned that he would hit Apple with a tariff of at least 25% if it didn’t move manufacturing of the iPhone to the US, a day after meeting with CEO Tim Apple Cook at the White House.

Cook has led a push by Apple to win a carve-out for its iPhone product line, with phones currently primarily manufactured in China and India. The company previously announced it plans to spend $500 billion in the US over the next four years, which will include work on a new server manufacturing facility in Houston, a supplier academy in Michigan and additional spending with its existing suppliers in the country. Wednesday’s announcement will bring Apple’s cumulative commitment to $600 billion, the White House said, all of which is just empty promises until Apple actually does something besides just talk. 

The announcement comes with Trump readying plans to unveil a tariff on all products containing semiconductor chips as soon as next week. Separately, the president’s country-specific tariffs on dozens of trading partners are set to take effect on Thursday.

During Trump’s first term, Apple was able to win tariff carveouts for its products. If Cook is able to do so again, it could help the company avoid tariff costs that analysts expected to erode profit margins and increase consumer costs — or even offer a competitive advantage over foreign rivals like Samsung Electronics Co Ltd.

The Apple event is the latest in a flurry of announcements Trump has made alongside corporate leaders who have said they plan to increase their US presence. Earlier this year, Trump announced a $100 billion “Stargate” investment in artificial intelligence data centers from Oracle, SoftBank and OpenAI — with a goal of increasing the total to at least $500 billion — a bid to boost American innovation in technology and artificial technology. OpenAI and Oracle later announced they will develop 4.5 gigawatts of additional US data-center capacity in an expanded partnership. Last month we reported that, like all other ridiculous promises, virtually none of this massive Stargate promise will actually come to fruition. 

The president has also ramped up partnerships with key players in the chip industry, announcing that Nvidia plans to produce as much as half a trillion dollars’ worth of AI infrastructure in the US over the next four years through manufacturing partnerships.

Trump has also made securing investments a key part of negotiating with other countries on geopolitical issues, such as trade.

Part of the US’ deal with the European Union included an agreement from the EU to purchase $750 billion in American energy products and invest $600 billion in the US, while the president’s deal with Japan includes the creation of a $550 billion fund to make investments in the US. And all of these “deals” are, you guessed it, nothing more than unforceable hot air. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 09:46

Former CIA Officer: Russiagate Deep State Operatives Still Work At The Agency

Former CIA Officer: Russiagate Deep State Operatives Still Work At The Agency

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A former CIA operations officer has warned that Deep State operatives who concocted the fake Russia collusion narrative against President Trump under then Director John Brennan are still active inside the agency.

Bryan Dean Wright told the Daily Caller that “At least two still do work there. That doesn’t mean that all of the other people have left. Those are just the two that I’m aware of.”

Wright claims that One of the operatives still has a “blue badge,” meaning they are a direct CIA employee, while another possesses a “green badge,” and carries out work as a contractor.

The Daily Caller notes that Wright declared in a recent op-ed that Brennan should “rot in prison” for treasonous plotting to undermine the integrity of the Republic.

“These men thought they knew what was best for America, and they didn’t give a damn what voters like you thought,” the former spook asserted.

Wright further suggested that because Brennan worked at the agency for so long, he likely continues to shape the culture at the CIA and has almost certainly cultivated generations of like minded employees.

As we’ve highlighted, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has officially handed the Department of Justice a criminal referral relating to the “treasonous conspiracy” by Brennan, other Obama officials and the former President himself outlined in Declassified documents.

Further documents released by Gabbard have revealed that not only did the CIA believe a Russian intelligence assessment that the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign planned to smear Trump by linking him to the Kremlin, but that the FBI helped the Clinton campaign orchestrate the Russia hoax to distract from its investigation into her emails.

The declassified documents also show that the Clinton Campaign plotted to use Crowdstrike to push the claim that Russian hackers leaked information from the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

President Trump has admitted that he previously refrained from pursuing an indictment for Hillary Clinton, but believes now she should “pay a very big price.”

A House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence report declassified on July 23 has also shown that just five CIA analysts under Brennan wrote the 2017 intelligence assessment, which included the infamous fake Steele dossier, on which the Russia hoax was based.

The report notes that according to a CIA self-assessment declassified on July 2, the analysts were part of a “Fusion Cell” Brennan had put together months to explore Russian election interference.

There are concerns that those agents remain embedded in the framework of the CIA.

Current CIA Director John Ratcliffe proclaimed last week that Brennan, James Comey, Hillary and others face “serious legal consequences,” for their roles in the scandal, revealing that he has made additional referrals for criminal prosecution, building on those sent weeks earlier by Gabbard, including one about Barack Obama.

“We’re gonna continue to share the intelligence that would support the ability of our Department of Justice to… bring fair and just claims against those who have perpetrated this hoax and the American people and this stain on our country,” he said during a Fox News interview.

On Sunday Ratcliffe described Hillary’s role in the Russia hoax and her efforts to frame Trump as the “greatest political scandal” in a lifetime.

“There was Intelligence from foreign Intelligence services, that one U.S. presidential candidate was trying to frame another candidate for treason, claiming that he was an agent of a foreign power, an agent of Russia, and that Intelligence was never shared,” Ratcliffe urged.

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 – 09:20