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Futures Drop Led By Tech Ahead Of PCE Data

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Futures Drop Led By Tech Ahead Of PCE Data

US equity futures are lower after closing at a new all time high, dragged by tech stocks as traders cut risk ahead of today’s core PCE data that may test expectations for the pace of Fed rate cuts. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%: in premarket trading, Alphabet dropped 1.2% leading losses among the Magnificent Seven giants; Nvidia shares extended their premarket decline to over 1%, after the Wall Street Journal reported Alibaba had created a new AI chip. Dell slumped more than 6% after reporting slower sales of artificial intelligence servers. Europe’s Stoxx 600 also dropped 0.4% while bond markets weakened across the board amid ongoing political turmoil in France. US Treasuries fell, with the yield on 30-year notes rising three basis points to 4.90% while the dollar gained 0.2%, putting it on track to snap a run of three weekly losses. Attention today will be on the July personal income/spending which includes the Fed’s favorite core PCE data; we also get the advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (8:30am), August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier to subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks: are all lower (Microsoft -0.1%, Alphabet -1%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.3%, Meta Platforms -0.6%, Tesla -0.4%, Nvidia -0.9%).

  • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) climbs 15% after the financial technology company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong.
  • Alibaba Group ADRs (BABA) rise 3% after the company reported a surge in revenue from China’s AI boom, helping offset a surprise drop in profit tied to a worsening battle with Meituan and JD.com Inc. in internet commerce.
  • Ambarella (AMBA) jumps 18% after the US semiconductor device maker beat revenue and EPS estimates and increased its fiscal 2026 revenue growth estimate. Analysts note strong AI momentum.
  • Caterpillar (CAT) falls 3% after the industrial giant warned that it faces a larger-than-anticipated tariff headwind of as much as $1.8 billion this year.
  • Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH) rises 9% after PepsiCo Inc. increased its stake in the energy-drink maker.
  • Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) falls 6% after the company booked fewer sales of artificial intelligence servers than in the previous three months and reported profit margins that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
  • Elastic (ESTC) rises 16% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) falls 13% after reporting data center revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • NeoGenomics (NEO) rises 4% after saying a US district court ruled in its favor, invalidating all of Natera’s asserted patent claims and clearing the way for broader commercialization of its RaDaR ST assay.
  • Petco (WOOF) jumps 22% after the US pet food maker gave 3Q guidance that topped expectations and nudged up its outlook for 2026.
  • SentinelOne (S) gains 8% after the software company raised its revenue forecast for the year. Analysts note that results were boosted by strong annual recurring revenues.
  • Ulta Beauty (ULTA) climbs 3% after the cosmetics retailer boosted its comparable sales forecast for the full year.

Friday’s stock market weakness casts a shadow heading into what is historically the toughest month for US equities. The S&P 500 has declined in September 56% of the time, with an average drop of 1.17%, according to Bank of America’s Paul Ciana, citing data back to 1927.

“Some profit-taking is healthy as the AI theme has been playing out for some time,” said François Rimeu, senior strategist at Credit Mutuel Asset Management in Paris. As for economic data, “if the labor market is really heating up, then that could lead to some repricing.”

Friday’s personal consumption expenditures report comes a week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tilt at Jackson Hole bolstered bets on the first rate cut of the year next month. Still, doubts linger over what follows that move, with inflation stuck above target. Swaps are pricing two quarter-point cuts this year and another two by June. The report is expected to show core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge for tracking inflation, rising 2.9% in July from the year before, the fastest pace in five months. Policymakers will have to balance higher price pressures with data next week that’s expected to show a rise in unemployment.

European stocks extend losses, as the Stoxx 600 drops 0.4% hitting its lowest level in over two weeks with financial stocks leading losses. All 20 sectors are in the red. UK banks dropped after a think tank said Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves could raise billions of pounds of revenue through a windfall tax on commercial banks. Defense stocks advanced after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents is unlikely to happen. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

  • European defense stocks are rising on Friday after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents is unlikely to happen
  • Lotus Bakeries shares rise as much as 6.5% as BofA upgrades its rating on the maker of Biscoff cookies to buy from neutral with a €10,500 target price, and adds the stock to its SMID cap Europe Best Ideas list
  • Brunello Cucinelli shares rise to the highest in about a month after the luxury fashion company reported strong operating income for the first half-year. Analysts foresee limited tariff risk
  • Schaeffler gains as much as 4.5%, climbing to the highest since June 2024, as Citi upgrades to buy from neutral ahead of the automotive supplier’s forthcoming capital markets day
  • UK bank stocks slide after a think tank says Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves could raise billions of pounds of revenue by imposing a windfall tax on commercial lenders
  • Ayvens drops as much as 3.7% on a downgrade to neutral at Citi, which now sees a fairly balanced risk-reward for the car leasing company following a strong rally in the shares over the past year
  • CD Projekt drop as much as 3.4% as mounting development costs and uncertainty on timeline of forthcoming productions cast shadow on 2Q earnings beat
  • Pernod Ricard shares drop as much as 4.3% after analysts poured cold water on the optimism stemming from the spirit maker’s earnings beat on Thursday
  • Elekta shares drop as much as 6.2%, reversing earlier gains, after the firm reported first-quarter results. Citigroup analysts flagged the lack of order growth acceleration, while Barclays noted revenue will be under pressure in the second quarter

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded little changed, with a rally in Chinese equities offset by losses in Japan amid profit taking.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged 0.1% lower, with Contemporary Amperex Technology and Suzhou TFC Optical Communication among the biggest gainers. China Taiping Insurance Holdings was among the laggards after its lackluster earnings.  Chinese stocks continued to march higher, partly as investor sentiment stayed high ahead of a military parade on Sept. 3 to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Meantime, optimism around solid state batteries also supported gains in the broad market. Shares of CATL, a Chinese battery maker, soared on revenue hopes following an earnings report from a supplier. China’s onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index rose 0.7% to its highest level since 2022. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index advanced as much as 1.3%. Elsewhere, Japanese stocks fell on profit-taking before the release of personal-consumption-expenditure data in the US. Selling spread across a broad range of sectors, hitting exporters such as makers of electronics and cars, as well as banks and insurers.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The pound is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the greenback. Currency traders are also pointing to the potential for further dollar weakness next month, particularly as Trump escalates his attacks on the Fed into uncharted territory. The greenback is poised to resume its streak of monthly losses after posting a gain in July, its first of the year.

“There are long-term implications from the US administration’s recent actions,” wrote Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities. “This chips away at the USD’s safe haven status.”

In rates, treasuries slip, with longer-dated maturities leading the slide, and 10-year yields rising 2 bps to 4.22%. European government bonds also fall, though Bunds didn’t show much immediate reaction to mixed regional euro-area inflation data.

In commodities, spot gold is down $10. WTI crude futures drop 0.5% to near $64.30 a barrel. Bitcoin falls 2% and below $110,000. 

Today’s economic data slate includes July personal income/spending (including PCE price indexes), advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories (8:30am), August MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier to subscribers), August final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session. The first hearing in Lisa Cook’s lawsuit against Trump is set for 10am ET.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.3%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%
  • DAX -0.6%, CAC 40 -0.6%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.23%
  • VIX +0.2 points at 14.61
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1202.63
  • euro little changed at $1.1679
  • WTI crude -0.8% at $64.1/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • FHFA Director Pulte sent a new criminal referral against Fed’s Cook
  • The Trump administration plans to expand national-security tariffs on steel, aluminum and a variety of other industries in coming months in hopes of redirecting production in these sectors to the U.S. and thwarting potential legal threats in the trade war. WSJ
  • The EU must be prepared to walk away from a trade deal with the US if Trump acts on his threats to target the bloc unless it waters down its digital legislation, Brussels’ competition tsar Teres Ribera said. FT
  • The Fed’s Christopher Waller again said he would support a quarter-point rate cut next month and signaled more easing over the next three to six months. Waller said he does not believe a bigger September cut is needed unless the August jobs report shows substantial weakening and inflation stays well contained, while Waller added that he wanted a rate cut in July and feels more strongly about it now. BBG
  • US VP Vance said interest rates are too high and the Fed is not doing its job: Fox News
  • Russian oil exports to India are set to rise further in Sept as New Delhi defies the White House. RTRS
  • Alibaba posted a 3% drop in operating profit after an escalating price-based battle with Meituan and JD.com hurt margins. Separately, Alibaba developed a new chip compatible with the Nvidia platform, meaning engineers can repurpose programs they wrote for Nvidia chips. BBG
  • Tokyo’s inflation rate excluding fresh food slowed to 2.5% in August as expected, but remained above the BOJ’s target. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. BBG
  • Vladimir Putin will meet Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi at a summit in Tianjin, China, this weekend to discuss energy ties. BBG
  • CPIs from France, Italy, and Spain come in a bit cooler than anticipated in Aug at +0.8% Y/Y, +1.7%, and +2.7% Y/Y, respectively, although German regional CPIs accelerated in Aug vs. Jul. WSJ
  • U.S. companies have an unwelcome message for inflation-weary consumers: Prices are going up. Companies from Hormel to Ace Hardware forecast prices rising as the costs of Trump’s tariffs are passed on to consumers. Inflation has eased in recent months, but job growth has also slowed, and there are signs shoppers worry that tariffs could further increase prices. WSJ
  • HFs have aggressively net bought EM stocks so far in August, led by Chinese equities, EM EMEA, and to a lesser extent Taiwan, while EM Latin America has seen little net activity. Despite this month’s large net buying, Net allocation in Chinese equities does not look extended and is inline with 5-year average. Goldman Prime

Trade/Tariffs

  • Canada does not expect US President Trump to drop all his tariffs on the country, according to officials cited by FT.
  • Brazil’s Vice President Alckmin said they plan to end negotiations for a complementary trade agreement with Mexico next June and plan to sign a complementary trade agreement with Mexico in August 2026.
  • Japanese trade negotiator Akazawa said he will visit the US as soon as necessary arrangements have been made, while he added that he may need to visit the US at least one more time before a presidential executive order is issued.
  • Indian Trade Minister says India is to look to new markets, including Australia; India is considering steps to boost domestic demand and support exporters hit by unilateral action by a country; India is taking steps to diversify exports.
  • China increases soybean purchases from Argentina and Uruguay due to ongoing US trade tensions, according to Reuters sources; says China has yet to book US soybean imports for Q4

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed heading into month-end and as participants digested a slew of data and earnings. ASX 200 traded rangebound as strength in tech and energy was offset by losses in real estate, healthcare, industrials and financials, while stock headlines in Australia continued to be dominated by a busy earnings slate. Nikkei 225 weakened after a slew of data releases, which were ultimately mixed, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained following another substantial liquidity injection by the PBoC of around CNY 783bln and with Beijing authorities recently vowing support measures, while the spotlight is also on incoming earnings, including from Alibaba and Chinese banks.

Top Asian News

  • China state planner spokesperson said they are aware that household consumption capability and confidence need to be improved, and aware that company competition has intensified. The spokesperson added that China will study further increasing support from the central government to reduce funding pressure for local governments for people’s livelihood projects and will investigate dumping cases, misleading promotions, and improve governance of disorderly competition. Furthermore, China is to push for reducing R&D costs for AI innovation and will innovate methods to subsidise AI product purchases.
  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Brazil’s Foreign Minister and said China is willing to strengthen strategic mutual trust with Brazil and strengthen mutual support, while he added that China is willing to strengthen coordination with Brazil and work with BRICS countries to resist unilateralism and bullying.
  • Industrial and Commercial Bank (1398 HK) H1 (CNY): Net Income 168.1bln (prev. 171.1bln Y/Y), NII 313.6bln (prev. 314bln Y/Y).
  • Agricultural Bank of China (601288 CN) H1 (CNY): net 139.94bln (+2.7% Y/Y), net fee income 51.44bln.
  • Bank of Communications (3328 HK) H1 (CNY): Net Income 46bln, NII 85.3bln.
  • Bank of China (601988 CH) H1 (CNY): Net Income 117.59bln, -0.9% Y/Y, NIM 214.81bln.
  • TSMC (TSM) reportedly plans major supply chain overhaul, targeting high-margin and China-exposed suppliers, according to DigiTimes Asia.
  • Alibaba (BABA) Q1 2025 (USD): Revenue 34.6bln (exp. 34.3bln), EPS 2.06 (exp. 2.13); notes new highs in monthly active customers and daily order volume; to increase cloud adoption for AI. Alibaba (BABA) has developed a new AI chip to help fill China’s void, according to WSJ sources.

European bourses began the session on the back foot despite stateside gains on Thursday. A slew of European data points had little impact on price action, which held a negative bias throughout the day. European sectors began the session mixed, though sectors have since slipped nearly entirely in the red as the risk tone deteriorated. Energy and Industrials prove resilient to the downbeat tone, with German Chancellor’s remarks on Thursday helping defence stocks. Merz said there would be no meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Banks are the clear underperformers after the think-tank IPPR, recommended the Treasury should hit commercial banks with a new windfall tax on profits to raise up to GBP 8bln.
US equity futures are trading lower but faring better than stocks across the Atlantic. NQ underperforms following outperformance on Thursday, while ES and RTY are a little more resilient into PCE, the latter outperforms.

Top European News

  • ECB SCE: Consumers keep inflation expectations stable 1yr: 2.6% (prev. 2.6%). 3yr: 2.5% (prev. 2.4%). 5yr: 2.1% (prev. 2.1%).
  • ECB’s de Guindos says “The US-EU trade agreement was the best outcome achievable among a series of difficult negotiations for Europe. In other words, it can be seen as the lesser evil.”, via Econostream X
  • German Job Agency Head says the nation has reached a bottoming out of the Labour market.

FX

  • DXY is choppy after softening on Thursday alongside a lower yield environment and despite the several encouraging data releases stateside, including the upward revisions to headline US GDP and GDP Sales for Q2, while Core PCE Prices were revised lower and jobless claims fell. DXY currently resides in a narrow 97.85-98.04 parameter at the time of writing, with the 50 DMA seen at 95.58.
  • EUR/USD gradually eased back from Thursday’s peak, with the single currency thwarted by resistance near the 1.1700 level. In terms of data this morning, German retail sales fell by -1.5% M/M in July (exp. -0.4%), which saw a tick higher in Bund futures, while German import prices fell by -0.4% M/M in July (exp. -0.3%). French prelim HICP printed 0.8% Y/Y in August (exp. 0.9%, prev. 0.9%), resulting in fleeting EUR downside; Spain’s HICP printed 2.7% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 2.7%), but notable that the Core Spanish CPI saw an uptick to 2.4% from 2.3% – little EUR movement. Back to Germany, state CPIs printed in line with what is expected from the mainland metric at 13:00 BST – an uptick in the Y/Y and a downtick in the M/M. Furthermore, ECB SCE saw consumers keep inflation expectations stable. EUR/USD resides in the 1.1657-1.1682 range at the time of writing after briefly dipping under its 50 DMA 1.1661.
  • JPY lacks direction as participants digested several data releases from Japan, which were ultimately mixed, whilst macro newsflow remained light in the European morning. The mixed bag of data releases included Tokyo CPI, which mostly matched estimates, and the Unemployment Rate surprisingly declined, although Industrial Production and Retail Sales disappointed. USD/JPY trades on either side of its 50 DMA (146.99) in a current 146.77-147.19 range.
  • GBP/USD fell further below the 1.3500 focal point, with Sterling lagging despite light pertinent catalysts for the UK, although there were reports yesterday that PM Starmer plans a cabinet shake-up and is expected to appoint a new economic advisor ahead of the Autumn Budget. Some focus also on the UK think tank IPPR (widely described as left-wing), which recommended that Chancellor Rachel Reeves impose a windfall tax on commercial banks to reclaim profits earned from taxpayer-backed deposits at the Bank of England. A senior banker, speaking with the FT, said, “Politically it is an easy target… No one likes banks, they are seen as a whipping boy for the government”.
  • Antipodeans remained afloat after recent advances, and as the PBoC continued to strengthen the yuan reference rate setting.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are lower by a handful of ticks in what has been a quiet and rangebound trade overnight. Currently trading in a 112-13+ to 112-18+ range, as traders now turn their attention to the US PCE later today at 13:30 BST/08:30 EDT. Headline PCE is expected to rise by +0.2% M/M (prev. +0.3%), with the annual rate unchanged at 2.6% Y/Y; the core PCE rate is seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%).
  • Bunds are ever so slightly on the back foot, as European traders finally have some key data to digest, by way of Retail Sales/inflation metrics. Nonetheless, moves have been relatively contained so far. German Retail Sales sparked some modest upticks in Bunds and then took another leg higher on the softer-than-expected French inflation metrics – high for the day at 129.77. No real move on German Unemployment or Spanish/Italian/German State CPIs.
  • Gilts are also trading on the back foot and are marginally underperforming vs peers. Currently trading in a 90.61 to 90.75 range; from a yield perspective, UK 10y is currently trading around 4.72%, still a little off the touted “danger zone” of 4.80% for the Chancellor’s budget. On that, a UK think tank IPPR (widely described as left-wing) recommended that Chancellor Rachel Reeves impose a windfall tax on commercial banks to reclaim profits earned from taxpayer-backed deposits at the Bank of England. A senior banker, speaking with the FT, said, “Politically it is an easy target… No one likes banks; they are seen as a whipping boy for the government”.

Commodities

  • Crude futures are taking a breather after gaining yesterday, owing to geopolitics on what was otherwise a choppy performance, with the benchmarks rising on Thursday as German Chancellor Merz said there will be no meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. b currently resides in a 64.03-64.41/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 68.03-68.39/bbl range.
  • Spot gold faded some of the prior day’s advances after ascending above USD 3,400/oz amid a softer dollar and yields.
  • Mixed trade across base metals amid a choppy dollar and tentative mood across markets. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,839.00-9,924.00/t.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said France, Germany and the UK have no legal jurisdiction to trigger automatic re-imposition of sanctions on Iran, while he added Iran is ready to resume diplomatic negotiations over its nuclear program, provided that other parties demonstrate seriousness and goodwill. Furthermore, he said in a letter to the EU foreign policy chief that any E3 efforts to revive UN Security Council resolutions that were terminated under Resolution 2231 are invalid and ineffective.
  • Deputy Russian UN Envoy said E3 move on Iran at UN has no legal bearing and does not think the Security Council should act on the E3 move, while Russia and China have not yet requested a UN Security Council vote on their draft resolution.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • European leaders are said to be mulling a 40-kilometre buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian frontlines as part of a peace deal, according to POLITICO. Officials disagree how deep the actual zone could be and it’s unclear Kyiv would accept the plan as it would likely come with territorial concessions. The US is seemingly not involved in these discussions. French and British forces will likely make up the core of the foreign troop presence.
  • Russia says Western proposals for Ukraine security are aimed at containing Russia and drawing Ukraine into NATO’s orbit Russia says this will increase risk of military conflict. Russia says there must be one concept of security guarantees, reflecting Russia’s concerns. Russia says West is trying to turn Ukraine into a ‘strategic provocateur’ on its border.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Venezuela’s UN envoy said Venezuela complained in a letter to UN chief Guterres about a US naval build up, while the envoy added that the US naval deployment violates the UN charter and Venezuela does not constitute a threat to anyone. Furthermore, the envoy said the real threat to regional stability is the US military and nuclear weapons presence in the Caribbean. It was later reported that Venezuela’s President Maduro said there’s no way the US can enter Venezuela, and that Venezuela has support from China, Russia, and India.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Jul Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 am: Jul Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 am: Jul Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
  • 8:30 am: Jul PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 am: Jul PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.6%
  • 8:30 am: Jul Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 am: Jul Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 2.8%
  • 8:30 am: Jul P Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.14%, prior 0.1%
  • 9:45 am: Aug MNI Chicago PMI, est. 46, prior 47.1
  • 10:00 am: Aug F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 58.6, prior 58.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in another decent performance yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.32%) at a new record as positive data reassured investors about the near-term outlook. But even as equities hit new highs, investors remain heavily focused on the Federal Reserve’s independence, and today there’s going to be an emergency hearing about Lisa Cook’s position on the Board of Governors that’s due to start at 10am EST. So this is going to be critically important for markets, as her removal would give President Trump the opportunity to refashion the Board of Governors in a more dovish direction.

In terms of the latest on the case, yesterday we got confirmation that Cook would be suing Trump to block his move to oust her, and the lawsuit also requested the courts to issue an injunction that would allow Cook to remain in her post as governor while litigation is ongoing. So that would be a bit like what happened with the tariffs, where the courts said they could still remain in place as the appeal moves through the courts. Therefore, even if the overall case takes some time to reach a final verdict as the appeal moves through the courts, the injunction decision will have important implications for the Fed in the coming weeks and months.

For now at least, it doesn’t appear that markets are pricing in much chance of Cook being forced out. In fact, if we look at Polymarket, it suggests there’s a 79% chance that Cook will still be voting at the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. And earlier this week, when Trump published his letter removing her, long-end Treasury yields were pretty unreactive in the circumstances. Indeed, the 30yr yield is still within the 4.8%-5% range it’s broadly been in for much of the last 3 months, and yesterday we saw a flattening in the Treasury yield curve that unwound some of the moves from earlier this week as concern grew about the Fed’s independence. So the 2yr yield (+2.0bps) rose to 3.63%, the 10yr yield (-3.0bps) fell to 4.20%, and the 30yr yield (-4.6bps) fell to 4.87%. For more info on the implications, our US economists published a note earlier this week (link here) on what Cook’s removal could mean.

Speaking of the Fed, we also heard from Governor Waller after the US close, who was one of the two Governors who dissented in favour of a rate cut at the last meeting in July. He struck a dovish tone, and the speech was titled “Let’s Get On with It”, in reference to cutting rates. He even floated the idea of a cut bigger than 25bps, saying that even though “I don’t believe that a cut of larger than 25 basis points is needed in September”, that could change if the next jobs report “points to a substantially weakening economy and inflation remains well contained.”

Whilst that was going on, investors grew more optimistic on the outlook thanks to a decent batch of US data yesterday. First, we had the second estimate of Q2 GDP, which showed the US economy grew at an annualised rate of +3.3% in Q2, above the +3.0% rate on the initial estimate. While this comes after a -0.5% decline in Q1, it still leaves average growth during the first half of the year not too far below trend, which our economists see at just above 2%. Second, there was also a little bit of reassurance on the inflation side, as headline PCE inflation was revised down to +2.0% in Q2 (vs. +2.1% before), whilst core PCE was unchanged at +2.5%. And third, the more recent data was also positive, as the weekly jobless claims for the week ending August 23 fell to 229k (vs. 230k expected), and the continuing claims for the previous week also fell to 1.954m (vs. 1.966m expected). So that all helped to bolster risk appetite and dampen fears about a US downturn. Looking forward, the focus today will be on the PCE inflation numbers for July, which are the Fed’s target measure.

Against that backdrop, US equities put in a decent performance, with the S&P 500 (+0.32%) posting a third consecutive gain to move up to a fresh record. Tech stocks led the way, and the NASDAQ posted a stronger +0.53% advance, although Nvidia (-0.79%) fell back after its earnings release the previous day, which showed an ongoing deceleration in revenue growth. Meanwhile, European equities put in a more subdued performance, with the STOXX 600 (-0.20%) losing ground, with UK equities underperforming as the FTSE 100 fell -0.42%. The mood in Europe wasn’t helped by an unexpected decline in Eurostat’s economic sentiment index for the Euro Area in August, which fell to 95.2 (vs 96.0 expected).

Over in France however, yesterday saw an ongoing stabilisation in the country’s assets. In particular, their sovereign bonds outperformed, and 10yr OAT yields fell -4.1bps, which meant that the 10yr Franco-German spread tightened to 78bps, falling back from its 7-month high on Wednesday. We also saw France’s 10yr bonds slightly outperform Italy’s, where yields fell by a smaller -3.6bps. So that meant the gap between Italy and France’s 10yr yield widened slightly to 6bps, having reached its tightest level since 2003 earlier in the week. Meanwhile, that flattening in the Treasury curve was also echoed in Europe, with 2yr German yields up +1.8bps, whilst the 10yr yield fell -0.7bps.

That uptick in front-end yields was supported by the accounts of the ECB’s July meeting, which added to the sense that they had reached the terminal rate now. For example, it said that “keeping interest rates unchanged was seen as a robust approach to managing shocks and two-sided inflation risks across a wide range of plausible scenarios.” They didn’t rule out further policy action, but the Governing Council seemed comfortable with waiting for more information to justify a cut. And on the theme of European inflation, we’ll get flash CPI prints for August from major Euro area countries today, including Germany, France, Spain and Italy, ahead of the Euro Area-wide number on Tuesday. Our European economists expect headline HICP at 2.1% yoy for the Euro Area (previously 2.0%), and you can see more in their preview here. 

Overnight in Asia, Chinese equities have continued to advance, with the CSI 300 (+0.58%) on course for its highest closing level since July 2022, whilst the Shanghai Comp is also up +0.16%. However, it’s been a more negative story elsewhere, the Japan’s Nikkei (-0.24%) and South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.21%) have both lost ground this morning. In Japan, that follows an underwhelming batch of activity data this morning, with retail sales down -1.6% in July (vs. -0.2% expected), whilst industrial production also fell -1.6% (vs. -1.1% expected). Admittedly, there was a deceleration in the Tokyo CPI for August, but that was in line with expectations so wasn’t really a positive surprise, with the headline rate down three-tenths to +2.6%. Looking forward, US equity futures are also slightly negative, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.12%.

To the day ahead now, and in addition to July PCE inflation, we’ll also get US personal income, personal spending, and the advance goods trade balance. In Europe, we’ll get the ECB’s July consumer expectations survey, Germany’s August CPI, unemployment claims and July retail sales, and CPI readings from France and Italy as well.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 08:29

Trump Closes De Minimis Loophole As Dark Chapter In Trade Ends

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Trump Closes De Minimis Loophole As Dark Chapter In Trade Ends

The long-standing “de minimis” exemption, which allowed small packages valued less than $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free, officially ended Friday. This closes the dark chapter on an era when China flooded America with cheap junk (think $10 Bluetooth wireless speakers) and, according to many in the America First movement inside the White House, helped flood the nation with fentanyl precursor chemicals – if not fentanyl itself – and fueled the drug-death crisis unlike anything this nation has ever seen. Think of it as a modern-day reverse Opium War (hybrid warfare by the CCP). 

For those with a background in Latin, “de minimis” translates to “too small to matter.” But that’s certainly not the case. Since 2015, the number of packages entering the U.S. under this exemption has surged from 134 million packages per year to 1.36 billion by 2024. Much of this flood originated from Chinese e-commerce giants, including SheIn Group and Temu.

The decade-long tsunami of small packages flooding the U.S. didn’t just undercut domestic small businesses. It also created a backdoor for illegal drugs and fentanyl precursor chemicals from China to slip in undetected, fueling the drug-death crisis now killing more than 100,000 Americans every year.

Source: Heritage Foundation

“The de minimis exemption has been abused, with shippers sending illicit fentanyl and other synthetic opioids, precursors, and paraphernalia into the United States in reliance on the lower security measures applied to de minimis shipments, killing Americans,” the White House stated in late July. 

Washington-based Greg Husisian, head of the international trade practice at Foley & Lardner, told Bloomberg that President Trump “actually had bipartisan support” in tackling the de minimis exemption mess. 

“This was intended for grandma sending over an $80 package of toys, not like a huge Chinese company sending tens of thousands of packages every single day of $12 T-shirts,” Husisian pointed out. 

Under the new rules enforced today via Trump’s executive order signed in July, all foreign shipments, except verified gifts under $100, will face new duties.

We pointed out last week (read the report) that several global postal office services warned about emerging bottlenecks in U.S. inbound shipping lines over confusion about duty collections: 

  • Asia: Korea Post and SingPost are halting standard parcel services, while Japan warns of delays.
  • Europe: Norway, Finland, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, and the UK are suspending or limiting services; Deutsche Post/DHL halted business parcels via postal networks.

  • Australia: Transit shipments through Australia to the U.S. are paused, though direct U.S. deliveries remain.

Multinational logistics company DHL warned customers one week ago about mounting confusion over how duties would be collected. 

“Key questions remain unresolved, particularly regarding how and by whom customs duties will be collected in the future, what additional data will be required, and how the data transmission to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will be carried out,” DHL stated in the letter. 

Millions of low-value packages today will lose their duty-free treatment and be subject to standard tariff rates or temporary flat fees of $80 to $200 per item for a period of six months.

For more details on rates. Customs and Border Protection outlined earlier this month in a bulletin how the flat fees would be calculated, corresponding to the countries’ tariff rates. 

“It is a real concern that the dominoes are falling and there will be a ripple effect where more and more posts announce that they will be suspending packages to the US,” warned Kate Muth, executive director of the International Mailers Advisory Group, which represents the U.S. international mailing and shipping industry, quoted by Bloomberg last week.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 08:25

EU Exchanges Russian Gas For American & Norwegian Supplies

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EU Exchanges Russian Gas For American & Norwegian Supplies

The European Union has signed a deal to import $750 billion worth of liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels from the United States by 2028.

The agreement, announced on July 27 by U.S. President Donald Trump and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, is part of a wider trade package under which the EU will accept a unilateral U.S. tariff of 15 percent on most of its exports to the U.S., while also committing to $600 billion in investments to the country.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, the EU has greatly reduced its reliance on Russian energy.

Infographic: EU Exchanges Russian Gas for American & Norwegian Supplies | Statista You will find more infographics at Statista

Before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia accounted for 45 percent of EU gas imports, at 150.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021. By 2024, this had fallen to 51.7 bcm, representing 19 percent of imports.

That decline has changed course in the past year though, with imports from Russia having seen an uptick in 2023, despite the EU’s earlier implementation of measures to diversify away from Russian gas by 2027 under the REPowerEU plan. The increase was largely due to increased imports into Italy, Czechia and France, according to Ember.

To cover the 98.5 bcm shortfall left by reduced Russian supply, the EU has leaned more heavily on other exporters. Last year, Norway delivered 91.1 bcm of gas to the EU, up 15 percent from 2021, which represented 33.4 percent of the EU’s total imports. U.S. gas shipments increased by 139 percent over the same period, reaching 45.1 bcm, or 16.5 percent of the total. Other important partners last year included Algeria (39.2 bcm), Qatar (11.8 bcm), Azerbaijan (11.7 bcm) and the United Kingdom (11.7 bcm). Despite these shifts, overall EU gas imports in 2024 were still 61.4 bcm lower than in 2021.

According to Reuters, the EU will further ramp up purchases of U.S. oil, natural gas and coal, with trade rising from about $75 billion in 2024 to $250 billion annually over the next three years. Eurostat data from the first quarter of 2025 shows that the U.S. is already the EU’s top supplier of oil, accounting for 15 percent of imports by value and the leading source of LNG with a 50.7 percent share . The U.S. is also the EU’s second-largest coal supplier, providing 31.3 percent of trade by value, behind Australia at 33.4 percent.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 06:55

“Germany Is No Longer Safe”: Dark Predictions For Major European Country By 2050…

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“Germany Is No Longer Safe”: Dark Predictions For Major European Country By 2050…

Via Remix News,

The deputy head of the German police union, Manuel Ostermann, published this text on X, which Remix News is publishing in English: (emphasis ours)

Imagine Germany in 2050.

Arab clans dominate the big cities. Gangs fight each other in the fight for sovereignty in organized crime. People who don’t belong to the “right side” are murdered on the street. Even the police hardly dare to go to certain areas known as no-go areas anymore. Drug deaths hit an all-time high. In some districts, only Sharia law is recognized as valid law. Women are only allowed to go out on the streets unless fully veiled and accompanied by a male relative. The streetscape in these cities is dominated by Arab shops and traders.

You only hear Arabic. Germans have moved to other parts of the city and no longer dare to go back. In schools, lessons can only take place bilingually. The law of the strongest prevails in the playground. Girls and women only dare to be around people with pepper spray in their pockets. Gang rapists and so-called grooming gangs wreak havoc with impunity. Muslim girls, who are still pre-adolescent, like to be married to older men. Genital mutilation is practiced quite naturally in certain circles. German folk festivals only take place sporadically.

Many cities now have Islamist mayors. There is an Islamic right-wing radical party in the Bundestag strongest force. Hundreds of male migrants still cross borders every day. Christmas lights have been abolished. Islamic festivals such as Sugar Festival have been declared a national holiday. Crosses have invariably disappeared from public life. Most churches are closed. The imams can be heard calling to prayer several times a day. The social system has almost collapsed. The pensions can no longer be paid out.

I hear you shouting again: Now he’s exaggerating again! Such dystopian nonsense! And again I would answer you: No, I’m not exaggerating at all.

Just take a look at the U.K.

There, you are already a few steps further and closer to the description above. Why should things be any different here in Germany?

Not only will our society continue to Islamize –and at a rapid pace – it will undoubtedly become radicalized in every respect. Acts of violence will continue to increase. 

If … yes, if we don’t get a 180-degree turnaround in domestic politics right away.

We don’t have a second chance, just this one way to stop the development that has been mapped out.

Not tomorrow. Not at some point.

Now. 

Germany is no longer safe. This is not a wanton toad. This is not a “populist” battle cry. This is not pessimism. This is reality.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 06:30

Belgium Tops US As Most ‘Calorific’ Country In The World

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Belgium Tops US As Most ‘Calorific’ Country In The World

Why count calories at the national level?

Average daily food supply is a snapshot of a country’s entire food system: crop yields, imports, subsidies, and consumer preferences.

When availability climbs well above the 2,000–2,500 calories (kcal) most adults need, it can foreshadow rising public-health costs such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

Conversely, a lower figure flags lingering food insecurity or supply-chain gaps.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, ranks the top 40 countries with the largest food supplies.

Data for this visualization come from Our World in Data. They processed 2022 figures from the UN to track the average daily calories in a country’s food output, a measure that factors in imports and local production.

Because the metric captures supply rather than plate-level intake, it also hints at the scale of food lost in retail and households, an often-overlooked environmental cost.

Ranked: The Best-Fed Countries

Belgium leads the list with supplying nearly 3,900 kcal per person each day, fueled by calorie-dense staples such as bread, cheese, and chocolate.

Rank Country Region Per capita, daily
average calorie
supply (2022, kcal)
1 🇧🇪Belgium Europe 3,914
2 🇮🇱Israel Asia 3,895
3 🇺🇸U.S. Americas 3,875
4 🇮🇪Ireland Europe 3,844
5 🇹🇷Türkiye Asia 3,785
6 🇦🇹Austria Europe 3,760
7 🇵🇱Poland Europe 3,755
8 🇷🇴Romania Europe 3,717
9 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia Asia 3,707
10 🇮🇹Italy Europe 3,667
11 🇮🇸Iceland Europe 3,605
12 🇲🇰North Macedonia Europe 3,582
13 🇩🇰Denmark Europe 3,580
14 🇩🇪Germany Europe 3,573
15 🇨🇦Canada Americas 3,572
16 🇹🇳Tunisia Africa 3,540
17 🇭🇺Hungary Europe 3,530
18 🇫🇷France Europe 3,505
19 🇳🇴Norway Europe 3,490
20 🇳🇱Netherlands Europe 3,468
21 🇦🇺Australia Oceania 3,468
22 🇧🇾Belarus Europe 3,462
23 🇵🇹Portugal Europe 3,461
24 🇨🇳China Asia 3,454
25 🇱🇺Luxembourg Europe 3,453
26 🇰🇷South Korea Asia 3,444
27 🇷🇺Russia Europe 3,433
28 🇨🇭Switzerland Europe 3,432
29 🇩🇿Algeria Africa 3,425
30 🇭🇷Croatia Europe 3,422
31 🇦🇱Albania Europe 3,408
32 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina Europe 3,398
33 🇬🇷Greece Europe 3,389
34 🇧🇷Brazil Americas 3,384
35 🇨🇿Czechia Europe 3,368
36 🇫🇮Finland Europe 3,360
37 🇪🇸Spain Europe 3,356
38 🇦🇷Argentina Americas 3,355
39 🇦🇿Azerbaijan Asia 3,348
40 🇸🇪Sweden Europe 3,347

Ireland, Austria, and Poland also exceed 3,750 kcal.

A long tradition of livestock farming and generous agricultural subsidies keep high-calorie animal products abundant and affordable.

In fact, Europe dominates these rankings, taking 27 of the 40 spots.

Yet high supply does not always translate into higher consumption.

Countries like France show signs of shifting toward lighter meals and smaller portion sizes despite steady supply growth.

As European Union policymakers focus on food waste targets, the gap between available and eaten calories could widen even further.

The Very Large North American diet

Outside Europe, Israel ranks a close second with 3,895 kcal, reflecting a diet that blends Western processed foods with regional favorites such as tahini and olive oil.

The U.S. lands in third place at 3,875 kcal, underscoring its expansive agricultural system and large portion norms.

Saudi Arabia’s ninth-place finish (3,707 kcal) is noteworthy. A heavy dependence on food imports and government-backed food subsidies help maintain one of the world’s most calorie-rich supplies despite limited arable land.

However, high availability often correlates with rising obesity rates.

Adult obesity now exceeds 30% in both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, highlighting the health trade-offs of abundant food systems.

Why Food Supply Does Not Equal Calorie Intake

Food supply figures overstate actual consumption because they do not subtract retail losses and household waste.

In high income countries, roughly one-third of edible calories never reach the plate.

Even so, surplus supply strains ecosystems through land use, water withdrawals, and greenhouse-gas emissions.

Recent studies estimate that cutting global food waste in half could lower agricultural emissions by up to 8%.

Conversely, for lower-supply nations, modest gains in food availability remain critical for combating under-nutrition.

Understanding the distinction between calories supplied and calories eaten helps policymakers craft targeted dietary guidelines, waste-reduction programs, and social safety nets.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Top 50 Countries That Can Feed Themselves Across Seven Food Groups on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 05:45

Israeli Army Carries Out Landing Op Near Damascus, More Airstrikes 

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Israeli Army Carries Out Landing Op Near Damascus, More Airstrikes 

Via The Cradle

The Israeli military carried out a series of airstrikes as well as a landing operation in Syria Wednesday night, coinciding with ongoing negotiations for a security deal between Tel Aviv and Damascus. 

“The attack in Damascus last night proves the proper balance of power between us and Syria,” the Israel News telegram channel reported on Thursday.  “Every time Israel sees that there is a weapon or some kind of capability in Syria that it can threaten – we act immediately. It should be noted that when there are agreements, Israel will not be able to do this. It is a weak step in the Middle East to seek an agreement, because an agreement is protection, until it strengthens. Israel is the strong side here, and therefore freedom of action should be preserved, and it is advisable that Israel maintain freedom of action,” it added. 

“The attack in Damascus is just an example of the need to carry out such attacks from time to time.” The strikes reportedly targeted an air defense base belonging to Syria’s former military. 

Source: Israeli Army

“About 10 kilometers from the opening of the Damascus International Fair attended by President Sharaa, three Israeli warplanes took turns bombing Rif-Dimashq (Damascus countryside),” the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported.

Following the attack on Wednesday, Israeli ground forces were flown into the area via helicopter to carry out a raid on the site. The details of the landing operation are “not yet known,” a government source told Syrian state media outlet SANA. 

Syrian army sources told AFP the landing operation lasted two hours, and that Israeli forces left the area afterwards. Six Syrian soldiers were killed in an attack on the same area on Tuesday. 

The government source told SANA that Syrian troops discovered spy devices during a patrol south of Damascus on August 26. The strikes targeted the soldiers when they attempted to remove the devices. 

The Israeli attack on Tuesday prevented access to the area until the following day, the source said, adding that Syrian troops later destroyed the spy devices with “appropriate weapons.”

Israel’s Channel 14 correspondent Hillel Biton Rosen reported that “Israeli strikes were carried out in Syria following the discovery of intelligence devices planted in the country.”

Direct negotiations between Syrian and Israeli officials have been taking place in recent months, focusing on the establishment of a security arrangement. Israel expanded its occupation of Mount Hermon following the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government last year, pushing past the demilitarized zone and declaring the 1974 Disengagement Agreement null. 

Israeli forces have since established a widespread occupation across southern Syria and have continued to expand it, practically encircling the Syrian capital. Hundreds of Israeli airstrikes have also targeted former Syrian army sites.

Last month, Israel intervened in violent clashes between Syrian government-linked forces and Druze armed factions in the southern Suwayda governorate, carrying out heavy strikes on Damascus’s troops and sites in the country’s capital.

Tel Aviv framed the attacks as an effort to “protect” the Druze minority in Syria. Negotiations between Israel and Syria, which had been ongoing before the July clashes, resumed quickly following the Israeli strikes on the country.

Israel’s Channel 12 revealed on August 25 that “Israel and Syria are expected to sign a security agreement aimed at stabilizing the situation in Syria and preventing threats to Israel.”

The deal, set to be signed in September, is said to include a clause on preventing the new Syrian army from building and strengthening its force, as well as a demilitarization of the Golan Heights. It also reportedly includes Syrian–Israeli cooperation against Iran and Hezbollah. 

Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former Al-Qaeda chief, will attend the UN General Assembly meeting in New York next month.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 05:00

Germany’s Rheinmetall May Produce Lockheed’s ATACMS, Hellfire Missiles At Europe’s Largest Artillery Plant

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Germany’s Rheinmetall May Produce Lockheed’s ATACMS, Hellfire Missiles At Europe’s Largest Artillery Plant

The Deep State’s favorite weapons giant defense contractor, Lockheed Martin – which may or may not be next on Trump’s partial nationalization schedule – wants to have German peer Rheinmetall manufacture ATACMS and Hellfire missiles in Germany, business magazine WirtschaftsWoche cited a Lockheed executive as saying.

“We are already actively discussing additional manufacturing – including for ATACMS and Hellfire missiles,” Lockheed’s Europe head Dennis Goege told WirtschaftsWoche, adding that it would take place at Rheinmetall’s expanding Unterluess site in northern Germany.

The two companies said in April they would expand their cooperation beyond a memorandum of understanding signed in 2024, with the U.S. group providing missile and rocket technology, and Rheinmetall manufacturing and selling missiles in Europe.

Goege also told the magazine that the final list of missiles had yet to be determined.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited the Unterluess site on Wednesday, together with German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, to attend the opening of an artillery production line at what will be Europe’s biggest ammunition factory as Germany sets out to massively expand its military.

At the plant’s official inauguration in Unterluess on Wednesday, Rheinmetall’s chief executive officer, Armin Papperger, said the company could build similar facilities in other NATO countries, “and thus build a pan-European defense ecosystem.”

“When it comes down to it, Germany can be fast,” Papperger said. “Our country takes on responsibility as part of a Europe that has to take charge of its own security more than ever.”

Rutte said plants like the new one at Unterluess are “absolutely crucial” for the NATO alliance’s own security, for maintaining support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion and to “deter any aggression in the future.”

“Deterrence comes from the capability to indeed fight potential enemies,” Rutte added. “And Rheinmetall is extremely important here.”

According to Bloomberg, Rheinmetall broke ground for the plant, which was supposed to open in late spring or early summer this year, in early 2024 in the presence of former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The factory began trial operations in the second quarter of this year and will have a capacity of up to 350,000 rounds per year once it is fully operational from 2027 onwards.

It consists of two buildings, one for production of 155mm artillery shells and one for loading, assembly and packaging.

The investment volume totals around €500 million ($581 million) and more than 500 jobs will be created at the site. Rheinmetall also plans to produce rocket artillery there starting from next year.

Papperger also formally signed a contract Wednesday together with the Romanian economy minister for a new powder factory there, which he said could be completed in around 18 months.

Rheinmetall recently completed another major project in Germany, a plant in Weeze near the Dutch border, where the German defense contractor manufactures center fuselage sections for Lockheed Martin Corp’s F-35 fighter jet.

Its weapons and ammunition segment has been a major growth driver behind the company’s unprecedented rise in the past three years, recording sales of €724 million in the first half of 2025. The company’s shares are up more than 160% this year.

 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 04:15

Greenland’s Energy Stakes Trigger Denmark-U.S. Diplomatic Clash

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Greenland’s Energy Stakes Trigger Denmark-U.S. Diplomatic Clash

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Denmark has summoned the U.S. envoy after intelligence reports of suspected influence operations in Greenland, a mineral-rich Arctic territory central to offshore oil prospects and critical minerals, Reuters reported on Wednesday, describing the effort as an attempt to promote secession. 

The development adds urgency to oversight of exploration and mining policy, with Danish officials saying the case could impact licensing timelines and control of future export routes.

According to media reports, at least three Americans tied to U.S. President Donald Trump engaged with Greenlandic politicians and figures and compiled lists of locals deemed supportive or hostile to U.S. aims. The foreign ministry called the activity unacceptable. The U.S. mission in Copenhagen is led by chargé d’affaires Mark Stroh.

Greenland contains significant deposits of rare earths and uranium alongside prospective offshore hydrocarbons that are undeveloped. Its position near emerging Arctic shipping lanes is elevating its value for energy trade and mineral exports as sea ice thins. The resource profile positions Greenland to supply permanent-magnet materials for wind turbines and EV motors, while uranium lends a dual energy role. Western planners also eye Greenland for catalysts and grid storage feedstocks.

Earlier this year, U.S. officials pressed the Tanbreez project to bypass Chinese buyers, highlighting how competition over critical minerals is shaping Arctic policy and procurement strategies. The island’s proximity to the Arctic makes it a logical focus for President Trump’s transactional approach to securing energy and minerals. Investors note Arctic corridors that could shorten voyages for crude and LNG. Seasonal access windows remain limited but widening.

Local leaders have maintained a cautious posture toward large-scale extraction. Environmental and social concerns have slowed efforts to transform the territory into a mining superpower, even as demand grows for materials used in wind turbines, batteries, and defense systems. Officials in Nuuk and Copenhagen continue to state that the island is not for sale. Greenland’s cabinet continues to weigh environmental baselines, hiring, and revenue-sharing before advancing projects.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 03:30

Israel Attempts ‘Decapitation’ Strikes Of Top Houthi Leadership In Yemen

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Israel Attempts ‘Decapitation’ Strikes Of Top Houthi Leadership In Yemen

On Thursday the Israeli Air Force carried out major strikes on Yemen, but unlike prior attacks, this one was reportedly aimed at eliminating top military and political leaders of the Iran-backed Houthi movement.

It was an operation widely described by Israeli media as the IDF military’s most significant strike against the Houthis to date. According to Israeli media citing anonymous security sources, intelligence indicated that ten senior Houthi officials, including the group’s defense minister, had gathered near Sanaa to attend a speech by Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi – although none of this can be definitively confirmed. 

Via X/Times of Israel

The Israeli Air Force reportedly conducted an airstrike aimed at that assembly, resulting in huge explosions and fireballs erupting near the presidential compound and a southern Sanaa building.

What remains unknown, and is unlikely to go unconfirmed for days or more, is which high-ranking Houthi officials were actually present, or whether the group’s chief of staff, Muhammad al-Ghamari, was among them.

Regional reports suggest Israeli intelligence was monitoring the situation in real time, providing precise data that enabled the strike, even though that particular area of the city is known for having strong air defenses.

According to more details in regional sources:

Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen network, affiliated with Hezbollah, reported that more than 10 strikes hit the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and attacks were reported in the provinces of Amran and Hajjah. Sources told the Saudi Al-Hadath TV channel that the attacks “targeted Houthi positions in the Hajjah area. They targeted houses where Houthi leaders were hiding.”

Israeli Defense Minister Katz soon after the attack was complete, stated, “As we warned the Houthis in Yemen: After the plague of darkness comes the plague of the firstborn” – in reference to the Biblical Ten Plagues of Egypt.

His words suggested that some of among the top Houthi leadership were taken out.

And Israel’s military in follow-up said, “The IDF is acting forcefully against the Houthi terror regime, alongside intensifying operations against Hamas in Gaza, and will continue to act to eliminate all threats to Israeli civilians.”

Remarkably powerful daytime attack, after the Houthis over several months have targeted Tel Aviv’s international airport with ballistic missiles…

The Houthis are an Iran-allied movement which has shown resiliency, given that for over a half-decade it was bombed by the Saudi-US-UAE coalition, largely to no effect, and now it is in a war with Israel, and has managed to effectively shut down international transit shipping through the Red Sea.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 02:45

Germany’s Ruling CDU Party Targets Afghan & Syrian Benefit-Recipients In Push To Cut “Unsustainable” Welfare Budget

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Germany’s Ruling CDU Party Targets Afghan & Syrian Benefit-Recipients In Push To Cut “Unsustainable” Welfare Budget

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Germany’s ruling CDU/CSU bloc is demanding stricter limits on welfare, with party leaders pointing to high rates of reliance on the citizen’s allowance among Afghans and Syrians.

Deputy parliamentary group leader Mathias Middelberg said job centers must do more to place these groups into work, stressing there is “still considerable potential for catching up in terms of taking up employment.”

“Just 100,000 more people in work instead of relying on the citizen’s allowance could, depending on wage levels, relieve the federal budget in the low single-digit billion range every year,” the lawmaker told Bild.

According to government figures cited by Middelberg, 52.8 percent of Syrians and 46.7 percent of Afghans in Germany rely on the citizen’s allowance, while only 36.7 percent of Syrians and 37 percent of Afghans hold jobs subject to social security contributions.

“We cannot accept that hundreds of thousands of young asylum seekers here in Germany are unemployed for decades,” he said.

The call comes amid soaring welfare costs, with annual spending on the citizen’s allowance at around €52 billion. Statistics from the Federal Employment Agency (BA) last year showed that of the more than 4 million people who can work but receive social benefits, more than 2.5 million have a migration background, constituting 63.5 percent.

At the start of 2024, of the 2.6 million non-Germans registered for benefits, 706,000 were from Ukraine, 512,000 from Syria, and 201,000 from Afghanistan.

CSU leader Markus Söder and CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann said that those unwilling to work should no longer receive support.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz reinforced the message over the weekend, warning that Germany’s welfare model is no longer sustainable. “The welfare state as we have it today is no longer financially viable with what we are achieving economically,” he said.

Rising unemployment, bankruptcies, and inflation risks are also evidence of the mounting strain.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader Alice Weidel slammed the Grand Coalition government for continuing to oversee Germany’s economic decline on Tuesday, pointing to figures cited by Welt, which revealed 114,000 industrial jobs had been lost within the last year.

“The politically motivated deindustrialization continues unabated, even more than six months after the new elections. No economic turnaround without the AfD!” she wrote.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/29/2025 – 02:00