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What’s The Most Realistic Scenario In Which The West Might Replace Zelensky?

What’s The Most Realistic Scenario In Which The West Might Replace Zelensky?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

They might wait until after Russia agrees to a ceasefire (if it ever does) since replacing him with Zaluzhny while hostilities still rage could further weaken Ukraine to Russia’s benefit.

Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) published a report in late July alleging that the Anglo-American Axis organized a secret meeting in the Alps with Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Yermak, GUR chief Budanov, and former Commander-in-Chief-turned-Ambassador-to-Britain Zaluzhny over Ukraine’s future. According to them, Yermak and Budanov agreed with the Anglo-American Axis’ proposal to replace Zelensky with Zaluzhny, which could be advanced on anti-corruption pretexts and “reset” Ukraine’s ties with the West.

Sputnik shared the following assessment of SVR’s report by former US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter:

“SVR and its press service are ‘not a media outlet,’ Ritter pointed out. ‘They’re not there to inform the public when they release information. It’s usually done to achieve an objective or purpose’ – in this case signalling the desire to ‘inflict the most harm on Zelensky at a time when he is deemed to be most vulnerable,’ and ramp up divisions within his government, and between him and Zaluzhny”.

SVR’s report followed the Financial Times’ critical piece about Yermak, who SVR claimed had “set up” Zelensky by convincing him to crack down on anti-corruption institutions to justify any Western effort to replace him on this pretext, which came almost a year after Bloomberg’s own critical piece about him. Ritter’s assessment of SVR’s intentions is therefore credible, but seeing as how they and even Putin predicted Zelensky’s impending fall in the past, it remains to be seen whether it’ll happen anytime soon:

* 12 December 2023: “Naryshkin’s Scenario Forecast About The West Replacing Zelensky Shouldn’t Be Scoffed At

* 22 January 2024: “Why’d SVR Publish Its Prediction About An Impending Bureaucratic Reshuffle In Ukraine?

* 7 May 2024: “Russia Hopes To Influence Ukraine’s Possibly Impending US-Backed Regime Change Process

* 22 June 2024: “How Likely Is It That The US Replaces Zelensky In The First Half Of Next Year?

* 15 August 2024: “Assessing The Veracity Of SVR’s Latest Report About Impending Political Changes In Kiev

* 14 November 2024: “The US Is Unlikely To Coerce Zelensky Into Holding Elections Without A Ceasefire First

* 7 February 2025: “Russia’s Foreign Spy Agency Claims That NATO Wants To Depose Zelensky Through New Elections

Returning to SVR’s latest report, Trump’s new three-pronged escalation of American involvement in the Ukrainian Conflict and his country’s recent subordination of the EU as its largest-ever vassal state via their totally lopsided trade deal might nullify any supposed prior US imperative to replace Zelensky. After all, Trump was just manipulated into mission creep in spite of his well-known spat with Zelensky at the White House in spring, and his new EU vassals already prioritize the proxy war over all else.

Therefore, it’s arguably the case that the West already “reset” its ties with Ukraine even though Zelensky is still in power instead of replacing him for that purpose like SVR said that they’d soon seek to do, which Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh also reported is in the cards 11 days before SVR did. Nevertheless, Zelensky’s most likely successor does indeed appear to be Zaluzhny just like SVR and Hersh reported, but the West might wait to install him until after Russia agrees to a ceasefire (if it ever does).

That’s because replacing him while hostilities still rage could further weaken Ukraine to Russia’s benefit. Doing so after they end could symbolically herald a new era for Ukraine, however, and also serve as a reward to Russia for compliance with the ceasefire by fulfilling its requirement for a legitimate Ukrainian leader with whom Putin might then sign a peace deal. These calculations make the most sense from the perspective of Western interests, but they could always change depending on the course of the conflict.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/02/2025 – 10:30

Democrats Spark “Manufactured Power Crisis” In Maryland As Left Begins To Panic

Democrats Spark “Manufactured Power Crisis” In Maryland As Left Begins To Panic

Maryland’s deepening energy crisis and the resulting hyperinflation in power bill costs that have steamrolled working-class families are a stark reminder of why local elections matter. It’s also a case study in what happens when one-party rule goes unchecked. Under far-left Democratic leadership, the state has been so epically mismanaged that it now faces multiple cascading crises, whether fiscal, energy-related, or tied to illegal aliens or violent crime. 

Last week marked a significant inflection point for the panicking Maryland Democratic Party, which can no longer ignore the power bill crisis. 

Governor Wes Moore, speaking from a swanky vineyard in northern Baltimore County, was forced to address the crisis and now has blamed skyrocketing power bills on the regional grid operator, PJM.

Moore’s claim that PJM is somehow responsible for Maryland’s power crisis is a masterclass in political deflection.

What’s actually happened is that Moore and the Democratic Party have championed failed globalist “green” policies that led to the premature retirement of reliable fossil fuel power generation across the state for intermittent solar and wind, leaving the grid more fragile than ever. Meanwhile, baseload capacity has stagnated, forcing the state to import a significant portion of its electricity from neighboring states just to keep up with the soaring demand driven by data centers, EVs, and reshoring efforts. 

The power crisis is entirely self-inflicted and a result of failed green policies pushed by far-left state and local officials wearing climate-crisis blinders. These crazed leftists have no business managing the state’s energy infrastructure, let alone its future. 

Local TV station WBFF Fox Baltimore’s Gary Collins spoke with Maryland Del. Ryan Nawrocki, a Republican representing Baltimore County, who called the energy crisis in the state “manufactured” by failed green policies of the Democratic Party

Our reporting makes one thing clear: the power bill crisis is a political disaster for Moore and the Democrats. The optics are terrible, and worse, they have no real plan to fix the crisis. Instead, they’re deflecting blame onto PJM. But let’s be very honest with readers, anyone paying attention saw this trainwreck coming from a mile away: 

State Democrats had to call in their dark-money funded NGO network to flood the airwaves with propaganda in a desperate attempt to quell growing dissent over the power bill crisis and the broader turmoil unfolding… 

GOP (or America First) strategists in Maryland, and every state run by far-left Democrats, should take note: hammering the Democrats on their failed green policies is a winning angle. These policies are directly fueling economic pain for the working poor. It’s not a complicated strategy. 

Can’t make this up: Democrats in Maryland were too focused on condoms for kids rather than actually resolving their own power crisis. 

. . . 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/02/2025 – 09:55

Ten Days, Then What?

Ten Days, Then What?

Authored by Larry C. Johnson via Sonar21,

Donald Trump made another move in his feckless game of global checkers today in Scotland, with the announcement that he is giving Russia a new, much shorter deadline of ten days to end the war in Ukraine. Trump warned that if President Vladimir Putin does not reach a deal by around August 7–9, the US will impose new sanctions and “severe tariffs” on Russia and countries supporting its war effort. Trump’s new deadline elicited a collective yawn in Moscow.

Since the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO), trade between the US and Russia has shrunk dramatically. In 2021, US exports to Russia totaled approximately $6.4 billion and US imports from Russia totaled about $29.7 billion. This resulted in a US trade deficit with Russia of about $23.3 billion for that year.

In 2024, total trade in goods between the United States and Russia declined sharply due to ongoing sanctions, war-related restrictions, and other political measures. US exports to Russia in 2024:

Approximately $526 million, marking a decrease of over 12% compared to 2023. Major U.S. exports included medical/technical equipment, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and some food and chemical products.

U.S. imports from Russia in 2024:

About $3.0–$3.27 billion, down more than 34% compared to 2023 and down over 75% from pre-war levels in 2021–2022. Key Russian exports to the U.S. were fertilizers (about $1.3 billion), precious metals (about $878 million), and inorganic chemicals (about $683 million). Energy imports have almost entirely ceased.

Trump’s threat of new sanctions is just a blowhard bloviatingEnding shipments of fertilizers and precious metals is not going to hurt the Russian economy one bit. Thanks to the sanctions Biden levied in 2022, Russia’s economy grew to be the fourth largest in the world as measured by purchasing power parity.

Western propaganda that the Russian economy is failing–citing current growth of 1.4%–ignores the fiscal policies that the Russian central bank put in place in 2024 to cool inflation. But those measures were only temporary, with the central bank announcing a two percent cut in interest rates late last week.

That means that Trump, if he is serious, will impose bone-crunching tariffs on China and India. Both countries appear unfazed by Trump’s bullying bluster. China in particular holds some very strong cards… Rare-earth minerals desperately needed by the US military industrial complex. I think this will be another Trump nothing-burger.

So why did Trump whittle down the deadline? One possible explanation concerns the rapid deterioration of the military situation for Ukraine. Russia is making rapid advances all along the line of contact and even Ukrainian media and social media outlets are expressing alarm. Is that what sparked Trump’s decision to shorten the time for Russia to agree to a ceasefire? Fifty day or 12 days, it does not matter. Trump has no leverage to compel Russia to agree to the ceasefire that the US and Europe want to be imposed.

Russia is going to continue with its offensive and will take more territory in the coming weeks. Russian troops are pushing north in Zaporhyzhia, moving south through Sumy and Kharkiv, and advancing to the west, having already taken territory in Dniepropetrovsk. No pressure from Washington or Europe will alter this reality.

I discussed this issue, as well as developments in West Asia, with Nima and Pepe. Following that podcast, I welcomed the Judge back from his well-deserved vacation:

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/02/2025 – 09:20

Annoyed Italian Farmers Are Now Charging Tourists To Access Instagram Hotspots

Annoyed Italian Farmers Are Now Charging Tourists To Access Instagram Hotspots

In Italy’s Dolomites, farmers are fighting back against the surge of social media–driven tourism by installing turnstiles and charging visitors €5 (about $6) to access scenic areas on private land, according to CNN. The fee applies to some of the most photographed spots in the Alps, including the Seceda ridgeline and the Drei Zinnen (Three Peaks), which have gone viral on Instagram and TikTok.

The move comes in response to a wave of tourists — sometimes numbering up to 4,000 per day — who cross private meadows to get the perfect mountain shot. “So many people come through here every day, everyone goes through our properties and leaves trash,” said Georg Rabanser, a former Italian national snowboarder and landowner, in an interview with Ladin-language magazine La Usc. “Ours was a cry for help.”

Rabanser says the goal wasn’t profit, but attention. “We expected a call from the provincial authorities. But nothing. We only read statements in the newspapers. Gossip; nothing concrete. We haven’t even received warning letters. So we’re moving forward.”

Though Italian law mandates free access to natural parks, including the Dolomites, the landowners say they haven’t faced any official pushback.

Photos of the long queues have spread across social media — ironically drawing even more tourists to the area. As Alpine Club president Carlo Zanella put it: “The media’s been talking about the turnstiles, everyone’s been talking about it. And people go where everyone else goes. We’re sheep.”

CNN reports that local tourism officials argue the issue is being exaggerated. The Santa Cristina Tourist Board, which oversees one area with turnstiles, has hired park rangers to guide tourists, restrict off-trail wandering, and prevent drone use. “Things have improved significantly,” said board president Lukas Demetz. “And even the litter problem isn’t as serious as people say. It’s significantly reduced.”

Still, other regions are following suit with their own crowd-control measures. In the Aosta Valley, private cars are now banned from mountain routes, with hikers required to take shuttle buses. Lake Braies has introduced a €40 car access fee. And in the Piedmont region, only 150 cars can park near the popular Pian del Re peat bog.

South Tyrol’s governor, Arno Kompatscher, has called on Italy’s national government to enact broader restrictions to protect delicate alpine environments and discourage locals from converting homes into short-term rentals.

As overtourism spreads across Italy, mountain communities are no longer alone in pushing back against social media–fueled travel habits.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/02/2025 – 08:45

Exposing China’s Military & Media Push In Africa

Exposing China’s Military & Media Push In Africa

Authored by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times,

China’s growing control of African ports, particularly along the Atlantic, combined with deepening military ties and an aggressive propaganda campaign, poses an emerging threat to U.S. national security…

At a July 2025 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Air Force Lt. Gen. Dagvin Anderson warned that Africa is becoming a key battleground in global competition, with China, Russia, and terrorist groups posing increasing threats to U.S. national security.

Nominated to lead U.S. Africa Command, Anderson emphasized China’s shift from purely economic engagement to a growing military presence and aggressive information operations across the continent. He expressed particular concern over Chinese investments in African ports, especially along the Atlantic coast, which could be used to restrict U.S. access in times of conflict.

Chinese state-backed companies now have ownership stakes in roughly one-third of Africa’s 231 ports, with 78 facilities across 32 countries and a heavy concentration in West Africa, 35 compared to 17 in East Africa. Many of these ports have already been used by People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships conducting military exercises. This expanding control includes major ports in Nigeria, Tanzania, and Namibia.

A strong Chinese presence in West African ports would significantly enhance the PLAN’s access to the Atlantic, bringing it inside the U.S. security perimeter, an area far more difficult to defend than the Pacific due to fewer islands and resupply points. Africa lies just 3,000 miles from the U.S. East Coast, roughly the same distance as New York to California, meaning a Chinese resupply base on the Atlantic coast could put submarines within striking range of New York, Washington, D.C., and Atlanta.

While Chinese nuclear submarines can stay at sea for extended periods, they currently lack the ability to resupply or take on provisions in the Atlantic. Establishing a base would solve that, enabling not only sustained deployments but also pre-positioning for intelligence collection, containerized missile rearming, and disruption of U.S. or allied operations.

Since 2000, PLAN vessels have made 55 port calls across Africa, including in West African nations such as Morocco and Mauritania, demonstrating China’s intent to expand its military use of these facilities. A Chinese foothold on the African coast would give the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) a powerful platform to influence global trade and project power across both sides of the Atlantic.

Beijing has already demonstrated its willingness to convert commercial ports into military infrastructure, as evidenced by its 2018 project in Djibouti, where the state-owned China Merchants Group constructed a PLAN-exclusive base adjacent to a commercial port. Seven additional African ports, spanning both the Atlantic and the West Indian Ocean, have been identified as likely candidates for future Chinese military use.

In addition to base building, China is rapidly expanding its military-to-military cooperation in Africa. In 2000, less than 5 percent of African weapons came from China. Today, Chinese-made armored vehicles are used by 70 percent of African militaries, making China the continent’s top arms supplier. Officer training has followed a similar trend: from under 200 African officers trained in China at the turn of the century to more than 2,000 today.

Since 2006, China has conducted 20 joint military drills with African forces, steadily increasing in scale and sophistication, most notably the August 2024 land and sea exercises with Tanzania and Mozambique, and recent joint air force drills with Egypt. The following month, Beijing pledged a 1 billion yuan military grant to support African armed forces, train 6,000 personnel, and host 500 young officers for joint training, patrols, and exercises.

To make its expanding military presence in Africa more palatable, the CCP relies heavily on a coordinated propaganda campaign aimed at reshaping African perceptions. Through state-controlled media platforms such as CGTN and Xinhua, partnerships with local news outlets, journalist training programs, and satellite networks such as StarTimes, the Chinese regime promotes an image of itself as a generous, non-interfering partner, while subtly undermining the United States.

These efforts are part of Beijing’s broader “media warfare” strategy, which includes offering free or low-cost international content to African newsrooms and funding media exchanges and seminars. The China-Africa Press Center places African journalists in Chinese newsrooms for 10-month rotations where they report on CCP activities, reinforcing pro-Beijing narratives. Increasingly, the CCP relies on African journalists as the faces of its messaging, a shift from the 1990s, when Chinese reporters dominated the coverage. This tactic gives Chinese propaganda an air of local authenticity.

From ports to military training to propaganda, the CCP is working methodically to undermine the United States and achieve maritime parity. Africa has become a staging ground for Beijing’s long-term strategic ambitions, encompassing the military, economic, and ideological spheres. Unless the United States responds with a coherent counterstrategy, it risks losing critical access and influence not only in Africa but also across the Atlantic.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/02/2025 – 08:10

Tiny European Country Becomes First In EU To Impose Arms Embargo On Israel

Tiny European Country Becomes First In EU To Impose Arms Embargo On Israel

Tiny Slovenia has become the first European Union member state to completely halt arms trade with Israel over its ongoing military operations in Gaza.

The decision was announced by Prime Minister Robert Golob following a government meeting on Thursday, and it features a ban on the transit of weapons to and from Israel. “The government of Slovenia is the first in the EU to prohibit the import, export, and transit of military equipment involving Israel,” an official statement in state news agency STA indicated.

Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob 

Slovenia clarified that it was taking this step on its own, and complained about a lack of unified action within the European Union due to internal disagreements on the question of policy toward Israel.

The statement from Slovenia on the new drastic arms ban focused on the spiraling humanitarian crisis based on lack of food and aid, which has resulted in at least dozens or more Palestinians dying from hunger. “It is the duty of any responsible country to act, even if that means taking the lead,” the government statement said.

“We have been clear from the beginning: if the EU is not able to take concrete measures by mid-July, we will act on it ourselves in Slovenia. And that’s what we did today.”

However, Slovenia has for some time stopped approving any arms export licenses to Israel – a status quo which has been in effect since October 2023. The prime minister is actually threatening more punitive actions to come, targeting Israel:

“People in Gaza are dying because humanitarian aid is systemically disabled,” he continued. “They are dying under ruins, with no access to drinking water, food and basic medical care. It’s a total disruption of humanitarian access and conscious prevention of basic conditions for survival.”

“Slovenia will always stand on the side of international law and human rights,” he added. “In the coming weeks, we will prepare additional measures against the Israeli government’s actions, which mean serious violations of international humanitarian law.”

Slovenia, which has also been a member of NATO since 2004, is among small European states which have issued formal recognition of Palestinian statehood (done in June 2024).

Just this summer and in the past week, France, the UK, and Canada have said they plan to recognize Palestine at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly meeting in September.

Meanwhile Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on Thursday said the quiet part out loud amid an emerging diplomatic war against Israel, saying the country was in danger of becoming isolated.

Wadephul said Berlin is trying to prevent this. “Israel must always find friends, partners, and supporters in the international community. And that is currently in danger in this situation. And if there is one country that has a responsibility to prevent this, then in my view it is Germany,” he told reporters on a trip to Israel.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/02/2025 – 07:35

“Everyone Should Leave The EU” – AfD Head Weidel Blasts “Openly Corrupt” Brussels

“Everyone Should Leave The EU” – AfD Head Weidel Blasts “Openly Corrupt” Brussels

Via Remix News,

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, says Germany is digging its own grave. Her words came during an interview Weidel gave to Hungary’s Patriot Extra program, covered by Mandiner.

According to the nationalist politician, the European Union has “completely degenerated,” does not represent nation states or sovereign peoples, and has now become a machine run by overpaid bureaucrats that only causes harm.

Weidel says Germany’s economic decline is rooted in domestic decisions. High energy prices, the green transition, and the phase-out of nuclear power have made German industry uncompetitive, especially the automotive industry, which she says is being deliberately destroyed by Brussels regulations.

“All the bad rules were made in Brussels,” she said, emphasizing that the ban on internal combustion engines and environmental sanctions benefit China and American companies, not European workers. According to Weidel, Germany and Europe need a free market where everyone can produce and buy what they want.

Weidel also said the German government was playing politics against the population, lying to people, and doing the opposite of what it promised. 

On Angela Merkel, the AfD leader said that she was “the first Green Chancellor, not the conservative leader of the CDU.” She also called current Chancellor Friedrich Merz a representative of the “losing side.”

Weidel contrasted Germany with Hungary, praising Viktor Orbán for his “common sense” and as a role model for national sovereignists. “I can only congratulate Viktor Orbán, Hungary is doing much better,” she said.

“Hungary is the only one that clearly stands out and says: this cannot be done with us,” she said. According to Weidel, in Germany, on the other hand, there is an unstable government that is deliberately worsening the financial situation of the population in order to make people vulnerable. 

Weidel further stated that she believes Hungarians live relatively better than Germans, compared to the country’s economic performance.

According to Weidel, “Everyone should leave the EU.”

Weidel claimed Brussels is trying to build an “artificially created political product” against Viktor Orbán in the person of opposition leader Péter Magyar to interfere in Hungary’s internal affairs. However, Péter Magyar, supported by green and woke politicians and whom Ursula von der Leyen is feeding from the palm of his hand, is doomed to failure, she said, stating that Orbán will emerge from this fight stronger. 

She sees similar interventions from Brussels in Romania and Germany, where the AfD is openly persecuted and even faces a potential ban.

Weidel was particularly critical of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whom she called “openly corrupt,” specifically commenting on the SMS agreements made for Pfizer vaccine purchases during Covid. 

“I wonder where the commissions went?” she asked, adding that Von der Leyen and the Brussels elite were “only working to line their own pockets” and that the EU’s institutional system could not be reformed but must be completely rebuilt. 

In the interview, Weidel outlined what reforms an AfD government would introduce: immediate border closure and mass deportations; social benefits reform, i.e., only those who have paid into the system would receive support; tax cuts for workers; the return of nuclear energy and cheap energy sources; lifting the ban on internal combustion engines; radical reduction of bureaucracy.

“The whole Brussels superstructure is impoverishing us all,” she stressed, adding that the German people are increasingly angry because instead of a “brave new world,” they have been given a more expensive, poorer, and more vulnerable life.

Weidel said Germany should return to the ideal of a strong, independent middle class, which Hungary represents in Europe today.

According to Weidel, the European elections and the processes in Germany also show that people are fed up with globalist, centralized power. He believes that the restoration of national sovereignty, a strong middle class, and the free market are inevitable, even in the face of Brussels. 

“The question is whether Germany can still change or will it be completely absorbed by the Brussels deep state,” she told viewers. 

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/02/2025 – 07:00

Building Eurasia’s New Fortress

Building Eurasia’s New Fortress

Authored by Sean Ring via DailyReckoning.com,

For over a century, two dead advisors have shaped the way great powers view the world.

On one side, we have Alfred Thayer Mahan—the American naval officer who believed sea power determined global supremacy. According to Mahan, controlling the oceans means controlling trade. If you control trade, you control wealth. If you control wealth… well, you get the picture.

On the other side is Halford Mackinder, the British geographer who argued the exact opposite. Forget the seas, he said. Whoever controls the “World Island”—Eurasia—controls the world. Railways, rivers, pipelines, and land empires are what count. Not frigates and aircraft carriers.

Mahan and Mackinder are no longer with us, but their ideas continue to influence the world today.

And we’re watching it unfold.

It’s Mahan’s World… For Now.

The United States and the United Kingdom—Mahan’s spiritual children—have long benefited from an ocean-based order. Ruling the waves built their prosperity and power. The British Empire’s reach was maritime. The U.S. Navy now patrols every major sea lane. The dollar reigns supreme because oil, commodities, and trade settle in greenbacks. That world—the Mahan world—is why Americans live like kings while land powers like Russia and China have spent decades playing catch-up.

But Mahan’s world has limits. Especially when you try to keep your rivals bottled up in theirs.

That’s precisely what the U.S. has tried to do with China.

China’s Story

The First and Second Island Chains—stretching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines to Guam and Indonesia—are like maritime prison bars hemming China in. They prevent Beijing from turning its navy into a global force and restrict its access to the open Pacific. And that’s no accident. It’s U.S. policy.

So what did China do?

Simple: they pivoted landward. Hence, the Belt and Road Initiative. If the Americans and their allies can dominate the seas, the Chinese reasoned, then the answer lies in dominating the land. Ports, railways, roads, pipelines, dry docks, fiber optic cables, and power grids. Not just in Asia, but across Eurasia, the Middle East, Africa, and even into Europe.

What Mackinder once called the “Heartland” is now becoming a Chinese-funded construction site.

Russia’s Story

And then there’s Russia.

After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the West slapped Moscow with every sanction it could think of. No dollars. No euros. No Swift. No tank parts. No semiconductor chips. No comfy Davos forums. In effect, the West attempted to sever Russia’s ties to the global economy. Cut it off from the ocean-based system.

And how did Russia respond?

They doubled down on Mackinder. On land power. On rivers, specifically.

If you watch the YouTube video How Russia Plans to Rule Eurasia by River—and I strongly suggest you do—it outlines Moscow’s plan to build out an internal network of rivers, ports, and rail links that integrate the entire Eurasian landmass. The Volga. The Don. The Ob. The Lena. Not names we normally associate with global trade, but maybe we should.

Chinese Capital and Russian Geography

What’s emerging is a strategic marriage between Chinese capital and Russian geography.

One has money and ambition. The other has territory, rivers, and a pressing need to stay relevant. Together, they’re laying the foundation for a new continental infrastructure—one that’s largely immune to the U.S. Navy, the EU’s bureaucracy, or whatever sanctions the White House dreams up next.

Think about what that means.

New trade corridors will be built from China to Europe, bypassing the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal. Russian river ports will feed Chinese rail lines into Kazakhstan, Iran, and Turkey. They’ll have pipelines that carrier groups can’t blockade. Their digital infrastructure routed through friendly capitals, not Silicon Valley or Brussels.

A Mackinder world. Built in plain sight.

Potential Outcomes

So, where does this go?

There are a few scenarios.

  • Scenario A: coexistence. The ocean powers maintain dominance over maritime trade, but the Eurasian system becomes a serious, functioning complement. You get a multipolar logistics world—ships and ports meet trains and pipes.

  • Scenario B: Eurasian ascendancy. The land routes become faster, cheaper, and more secure. Europe, sick of American lectures, cozies up to Asia via Russian and Chinese connections. The sea-based West is beginning to resemble the old system. The future is inland.

  • Scenario C: confrontation. The U.S. and the UK start sabotaging, sanctioning, or undermining Eurasian projects. Think pipeline explosions, proxy wars, targeted sanctions on Belt and Road nodes. It gets ugly.

  • Scenario D: synthesis. Everyone accepts that the world now runs on multiple systems. Sea and land. Sanctions and swaps. Rail and sail. You need to hedge your trade routes, just as you hedge your portfolio.

Wrap Up

For now, Mahan’s world still rules. The U.S. Navy is unmatched. The dollar is still king. But the Heartland is stirring. The land powers are done playing defense. They’re building rivers, rails, roads—and they’re doing it without asking Washington for permission.

And if they succeed, Mackinder might finally get the last laugh.

Even if most Americans still have no idea who he was.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/01/2025 – 23:25

Russian Drone Found At Military Base In Lithuania Which Hosts NATO Troops

Russian Drone Found At Military Base In Lithuania Which Hosts NATO Troops

A suspected errant Russian drone has breached a NATO country’s airspace this week – though certainly not for the first time, and is setting off the proverbial alarm within Lithuania’s military

The drone was discovered crashed at a Lithuanian military training area after entering the country’s airspace from Belarus, after first being spotted early Monday morning, Lithuania’s army reported on Friday. The military first tracked in on radar over Belarusian airspace, near the border.

LRT: A Russian “Gerbera” drone that entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus found on August 1, 2025.

Several area residents actually captured footage of it flying over Vilnius before it vanished, and later was found on the ground at the military training base.

“It’s likely the same drone that breached our airspace on Monday. Initial analysis suggests it may be a Gerbera model, though this is still being confirmed,” the Lithuanian military said in the statement.

At least one Lithuanian lawmaker has portrayed the drone breach incident as intentional, also given it ended up at a military site.

“This looks like a provocation,” said Mindaugas Sinkevičius, interim leader of Lithuania’s ruling Social Democratic Party, while describing that the sensitive area where it was found leads to the conclusion that the breach was on purpose or a test of sorts.

It has been identified as a Gerbera drone, a type which Russia’s military often utilizes as a decoy to mislead or distract air defense systems in Ukraine.

Interestingly, the Gaižiūnai training grounds near Rukla – where it was recovered – actually hosts a NATO multinational battalion, regional reports say.

Via BBC

This isn’t the first time this has happened – and a Russian drone even breached Lithuanian airspace earlier this summer.

Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Latvia have also at various times seen their airspaces breached by errant drones – for example with a more dangerous Russian Shahed-type suicide drone having crashed in Latvia in September 2024.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/01/2025 – 23:00

Needed: Stupid Anonymous

Needed: Stupid Anonymous

Authored by Stephen Kritz via The Brownstone Institute,

For many years, large segments of the American public were perfectly willing to go on Jerry Springer and admit to the world that they abused their spouses, molested their children, tortured their pets, and consumed every illicit drug they could get their hands on. Beginning with Alcoholics Anonymous, a plethora of Anonymous organizations has come on the scene to deal with these issues, along with an ever-increasing number of other social and psychological maladies. However, there is not one Anonymous chapter where a person can get in front of a supportive group and state: “Good evening. My name is Steve, and I’m stupid!” Don’t believe me? Google it! 

For the purposes of this discussion, I’ll use the term “stupid” based on actions, not intellect…or as Forrest Gump was known to say: “Stupid is as stupid does!” Getting people to admit that they’ve behaved stupidly is a very heavy lift. Just as Social Security has been called the “third rail” of American politics, admitting stupidity is the third rail of the American psyche. In addition, I have found that stupid actions tend to be based on rigid ideology or fear, both of which are hard to overcome. 

Let’s start with stupidity due to rigid ideology. Given that the receipts documenting the Obama administration’s efforts to carry out a “soft coup” are now in the public domain, at least half the population is going to need Stupid Anonymous services badly. I must point out that the use of the word “soft” when talking about a coup is absurd. It’s like telling a person that you just kicked in the crotch that it was an accident, expecting the person’s pain to immediately subside. It’s not happening! An attempted coup is a very serious crime, no matter the means used to carry it out or its level of success, and there must be full accountability. 

I find it interesting that RussiaGate, which has now been definitively demonstrated to have been nothing but a hoax, was thought by many of its believers to be worse than Watergate. Frankly, I believe that those who, to this day, continue to believe that RussiaGate was a real scandal are just acting stupidly! While I have no issue using Watergate as the gold standard by which government corruption is adjudicated, it needs to be assessed in proper context. 

At the time of the Watergate hearings in 1973 and 1974, I had just finished college. PBS carried gavel-to-gavel coverage, and I listened to dozens upon dozens of hours of testimony. A year earlier, I had cast my first vote for George McGovern. My relatives, all of them Jewish, kept pointing out that almost all of Nixon’s partners in crime had German last names. 

As such, I was surrounded by people who were very fearful about Nixon’s plans for the country. I had similar concerns. In short, I was no Richard Nixon fan, and I believed that he got what he deserved. In reality, however, our Constitutional republic was never in jeopardy, and the country continued to function as it would have had the scandal not occurred. Despite this, a sitting President was forced to resign, approximately 60 people were indicted, of which almost 50 were convicted or pleaded guilty, and about two dozen were sent to prison. 

I have no issue with this level of accountability. Therefore, if we’re going to use Watergate as the gold standard, the perpetrators of the coup should receive punishment that is at least an order of magnitude more severe, given the fact that our Constitutional republic WAS placed in jeopardy. It was only due to Trump’s tenacity and fortitude, and the Hand of the LORD (most obviously in the deflection of the assassin’s bullet) that we are now in a position to turn the ship of state around.

There are those who will tell themselves that because the coup didn’t succeed, and Trump was legitimately ousted from office via the vote in 2020 (which raises a whole series of other questions that I won’t cover here), we’re okay, and our Constitutional republic prevailed. Not by a long shot! The fact is, the four years of the Biden administration were reminiscent of the last four years of Brezhnev’s leadership of the former Soviet Union from 1978-82. 

We had an obviously senile leader who was led by the nose by an unelected Politburo (a term I had used from the beginning of Biden’s presidency that is being uttered with some frequency in recent days). We had a Stalinist Dept of Justice (i.e., you show me the man and I’ll show you the crime), our Intelligence agencies were run by a bunch of Putin/KGB wannabes, and our news outlets were reminiscent of Pravda. As a result, the entire fabric of American life was in tatters going into the election of 2024.

I’d hate to think of what would have happened to this country had Kamala Harris won the 2024 election.

I’ll point out that while Trump won in an Electoral College landslide, if a mere 125,000 voters (out of approximately 16 million votes cast) in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania had switched their votes, Harris would have won all three of those states, and would have reached 270 electoral votes. 

Clearly, there were no supply chain issues when it came to the stupidity of those who fervently pushed the proposition that there was nothing to see here! Hopefully, the new folks that are in charge of our government agencies will provide justice with the appropriate level of accountability, and enough Stupid Anonymous chapters will be in operation to deal with the amount of psychological trauma that will need to be addressed. 

The current effort to deflect everything to the Jeffrey Epstein files in order to bring down Trump will not bear fruit. Once again, this will be shown to be just plain stupid. In my opinion, Trump’s leadership style has shown itself to be the second coming of the only other President born in New York City, Theodore Roosevelt. Eerily, Roosevelt also survived an assassin’s bullet during the election campaign of 1912, when he was running for a third term. Thank the LORD for overly long handwritten speeches kept in a left breast pocket! Had the speech been about 15 minutes shorter, the bullet would likely have been fatal. As such, Trump, by proxy, is already on Mount Rushmore! Putting the foregoing together; I’d say that those who continue to challenge President Trump are acting against the best interests of the country…and stupidly.

I’ll now move on to stupidity due to fear, which was the initial tactic used by those responsible for the disastrous Covid response. What’s going to happen when the true extent of the Covid atrocities are revealed? It’ll make the coup attempt against Trump, bad as it was, look like child’s play! While many of us are legitimately concerned about the number of terrorist sleeper cells that have been injected into the country via open borders, what about the number of sleeper cells that have been injected into the arms of most of the US population? There are already indications that long-term consequences are likely. 

Ominously, a very recent study from the Czech Republic showed that the successful conception rate of women who received as few as one Covid shot prior to trying to get pregnant is significantly lower than those who didn’t take any Covid shots. 

I’m also concerned that the flat-to-declining life expectancy we’ve experienced in this country over the past decade, which just so happens to correlate rather closely with the timeline of full implementation of ObamaCare, will be further exacerbated by having taken the Covid shots. To have not considered these possibilities from the outset of the Covid pandemic is just another example of stupidity, in this case fed largely by fear. 

Staying with life expectancy for a moment longer; beginning in 2015, we had three consecutive years of declining life expectancy in the US. The last time this had happened was during the flu pandemic of 1918-20. You’ll recall that the 2015-17 declines were attributed to “deaths of despair.” I thought it was also due to the obesity epidemic finally catching up with us. It was also found that excess all-cause mortality with decreased life expectancy occurred in 2021, the first year of the Covid shots, and not in 2020, when viral virulence was at its peak. 

While looking at the most recently posted life expectancy graphs, I couldn’t help noticing that the three consecutive year decline is not there, and the Covid-related drop in life expectancy is in 2020; not 2021. Experience tells me that something sinister is in the works, and the stupid among us are being set up for the next scam that will lead them to behave – you guessed it – stupidly. 

In sum; our work is cut out for us. Should stupidity prevail one more time, either from ideological rigidity or fear, our efforts to get back to our Constitutional republic will permanently end with Trump’s second term as President. I suggest we revive Operation Warp Speed in order to get Stupid Anonymous chapters up and running as quickly as possible.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/01/2025 – 22:35