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Taiwan Tech Insiders Warn Beijing’s Germanium Squeeze Is Hitting Production

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Taiwan Tech Insiders Warn Beijing’s Germanium Squeeze Is Hitting Production

Nikkei Asia reports that China is restricting or delaying exports of germanium- and quartz-based materials to Taiwan, creating “painful supply-chain bottlenecks” across the island’s key aerospace, semiconductor, and optical companies.

The supply disruptions reinforce the urgent need for the US and its allies to accelerate supply-chain decoupling and secure alternative sources of critical materials. Beijing’s ability to weaponize shipments could prove devastating during a military conflict or allow China to slow Western semiconductor and AI infrastructure buildouts while its domestic AI companies and infrastructure projects close the gap.

“It’s an industrywide issue. Many of my peers have encountered the same problem, and it could significantly extend lead times across our business,” one executive in the optical industry told the Japanese outlet, requesting anonymity for fear of retaliation from Beijing.

For context, germanium’s most critical uses are in defense optics and communications infrastructure, and it plays a significant, though largely indirect, role in the AI buildout through fiber networks, photonics, and data-center connectivity rather than the GPUs used in chip stacks.

Taiwanese manufacturers warned that prolonged customs reviews for germanium- and quartz-based materials began last year and that lead times continue to worsen, causing some suppliers to miss customer delivery schedules. Sources said one chip equipment manufacturer had to delay production on one chip line for months due to the supply squeeze and noted that sourcing materials outside China is extraordinarily difficult.

“The quality and precision for quartz is very strict for the chip industry, and currently we don’t have an alternative source from China,” one Taiwanese executive told the outlet.

“We have been told that some of our Chinese suppliers have been summoned by the authorities and questioned about their customers and shipments,” said one of the sources. “We have already lost some orders because longer lead times for certain materials mean we can’t meet our customers’ delivery schedules.”

Aerospace suppliers are also reporting disruptions involving Chinese magnets.

“We have found that key permanent magnets essential for making motors have faced some disruptions because of Chinese export controls, and it’s not that easy to find cost-effective alternatives in other places,” an executive with an aerospace supplier told the outlet.

China’s weaponization of critical-material supply chains amid heightened tensions with Taiwan suggests that the supply-chain decoupling theme will only accelerate from here.

Last week, Piper Sandler initiated coverage of LightPath Technologies with an “Overweight” rating and a 12-month price target of $15, citing the defense supplier’s proprietary BlackDiamond infrared glass, which completely “circumvents” the need for germanium amid “significant cost increases and scarcity stemming from recent Chinese export controls.”

Clarke Jeffries, vice president and senior equity research analyst at Piper Sandler, specializes in industrial software and defense technology. In a note titled “BlackDiamonds Are Forever,” Jeffries outlined the core value proposition underpinning LightPath’s investment thesis:

Central to LightPath’s value proposition is the exclusive license to BlackDiamond, a synthetic glass that circumvents significant cost increases & scarcity from recent Chinese export controls on germanium.

With an exclusive license, and now competing at cost parity (or below) to Germanium, we believe LightPath is poised to capture meaningful share in of IR and Multi-Spectral optics market as the technical advantages of the BlackDiamond technology scale to large diameter optics and have the opportunity to be designed into large upcoming defense programs.

Beijing’s tightening grip on germanium, tungsten, and other critical-material export flows merely confirms that the supply-chain decoupling investment theme will remain intact for many years.

The US and its allies must secure alternative sources before China further weaponizes export controls, which could soon create operational bottlenecks across the defense, semiconductor, and AI-focused industries.

That is why our decoupling theme is moving further upstream. On Wednesday, we examined Almonty Industries as a potential alternative supplier of tungsten (read report).

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/23/2026 – 08:50

“Iran Is Losing Its Grip On Hormuz”: Strait Traffic Explodes Nearly 400%

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“Iran Is Losing Its Grip On Hormuz”: Strait Traffic Explodes Nearly 400%

Summary:

  • Nearly 200 Ships Navigated Strait Last Week, Up From 150 the Previous Week
  • Trump Views Hormuz As “an American Territory” 
  • Axios: 40 Tankers Transited Hormuz Friday Night, But Real Crisis Is Diesel

Hormuz Commercial Traffic Surges 

Shortly after President Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz “an American territory” on Friday evening, the New York Post published a new report citing UK Maritime Trade Operations data showing that commercial traffic through the critical waterway has rebounded sharply as more vessels use a US-backed route along Oman’s coast. This suggests that the US military presence and offensive operations in the region have degraded Tehran’s ability to fully control the waterway.

Nearly 200 ships navigated the strait last week, up from about 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks earlier, according to UKMTO data. Traffic has recovered to roughly 20% of prewar levels, when the waterway carried about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN.

“The Oman route absolutely makes the most sense,” added Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, noting that it allows vessels to avoid the possibility of paying a toll to Tehran.

President Trump told a crowd in South Carolina late Friday, “We don’t even know if we won, because I view the Strait of Hormuz as an American territory right now.”

Let’s revisit a mid-March note from Ex Uno Plures’ Zoltan Pozsar, who explained at the time that Trump was “methodically building a portfolio of assets” to pressure China, centered on strategic energy-supply nodes and maritime chokepoints that have historically supported Beijing’s access to cheap crude imports. His note highlighted the Panama Canal, Venezuelan oil flows, and the broader significance of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

Axios: 40 Tankers Transited Hormuz Friday Night, But Real Crisis Is Diesel

Axios political reporter and Middle East correspondent Barak Ravid reported early Saturday that 40 tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night, citing three unnamed US officials.

“Around 16 million barrels of oil moved out of the strait through the southern channel on Friday night,” Ravid wrote on X.

The latest Bloomberg vessel-tracking data show that 13 ships transited the critical waterway on Saturday, with seven traveling east to west and six moving west to east. Traffic remains well below the levels recorded during the brief memorandum-of-understanding period from June 15 through mid-July.

On Friday, President Trump called the Hormuz chokepoint “an American territory”…

“We don’t even know if we won, because I view the Strait of Hormuz as an American territory right now,” Trump said, addressing a crowd in South Carolina.

Trump joked about bombing Iran during the speech, saying, “It’s a Friday night. We have plenty of time… and what the hell do I have to do? Go back and bomb Iran a little bit more?”

Axios reported Wednesday that the US military had established a shipping corridor in the critical waterway, which carries millions of barrels of oil each day. There was no word from Ravid on whether the 40 tankers sailed through the new shipping corridor.

Even with these transits, the emerging energy crisis is not centered on crude availability, as SPRs around the world are being tapped to offset lost production in the Gulf region. Instead, the real crisis is materializing in the refined-products market.

The focus emerged at the start of the week when Bloomberg’s front-month US diesel crack spread (HOCL1 Index) topped $100 a barrel, as we warned: “Industrial economy either grinds to a halt or consumers about to be hit with the biggest energy pass-through in history.”

Then, by Wednesday, Jeff Currie, the former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, appeared on CNBC to explain that the real crisis is not in crude but in diesel markets.

“Nobody on the planet Earth consumes crude oil,” Currie told CNBC. “Refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and those markets look considerably uglier.”

By Thursday, Currie explained that the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement and policy intervention represents the hallmark of a structural commodity bull cycle.

“Stop looking at crude. Nobody consumes it but refineries. The economy runs on gasoline and diesel, and that consumption-weighted basket costs $165 against $85 WTI,” Currie wrote on X. Read the report.

Related:

The US diesel crack spread closed below $100 on Friday, but the Hormuz disruption, compounded by Ukraine’s decimation of Russia’s refining capabilities, is creating a perfect storm for global diesel markets ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/23/2026 – 08:37

Spain’s Pools Hit By Disgusting ‘Brown Challenge’ TikTok Filth

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Spain’s Pools Hit By Disgusting ‘Brown Challenge’ TikTok Filth

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Spain’s peak summer season has been disrupted once again by a revolting viral trend that has forced the closure of swimming pools and waterparks across the country, leaving families stranded and facilities scrubbed clean at public expense.

At PortAventura World’s Caribe Aquatic Park on the Costa Dorada this week, lifeguards evacuated both the adult and children’s pools after detecting human faeces in the water.

The incident, reported on a Tuesday afternoon and allegedly repeated the next day, left the popular resort’s aquatic areas shut for the remainder of the day under strict health protocols.

The park, which draws millions of visitors annually including large numbers of British and Irish tourists, applied mandatory cleaning and testing procedures before reopening.

One swimmer captured the scene on social media, writing: “It’s 4.33pm in the afternoon and some pig has just defecated in the pool and they’ve kicked us all out. This isn’t AI, this is reality. If you’re at Caribe Aquatic Park you’ll have seen it. We’re all out of the pool.”

@bartoloventura1 Holi son las 4:33 de la tarde y un gorrino o gorrina se acaba de defecar en la piscina de Costa Caribe y nos han sacado a todos esto no es Ia esto es una realidad si estáis en Costa Caribe lo habréis visto estamos todos fuera de la piscina#bartoloventura1 #viral #fyp #portaventuraworld #viral ? sonido original – bartoloventura1

The so-called “brown challenge” or “reto marrón” involves deliberately defecating in public pools or releasing faeces from bags concealed in swimwear, with the explicit aim of forcing closures.

By law, contaminated pools must be thoroughly cleaned, hyperchlorinated, and often tested repeatedly for bacteria such as E. coli. Facilities typically remain closed for 24 to 48 hours.

Health authorities warn of risks including norovirus, Salmonella and Cryptosporidium, which chlorine does not always eliminate and which can cause severe stomach illness, particularly in children.

PortAventura officials stated: “The safety and well-being of our visitors is our top priority, and our team is trained and prepared to manage this type of situation with the utmost diligence and efficiency.”

They added, “We rigorously applied all the health protocols established by current regulations and the Public Health Agency of Catalonia (ASPCAT). Specifically, in the event of any detection and presence of faeces, vomit or other visible organic waste in the water, swimming is immediately prohibited until the situation is normalised after the corresponding protocol has been applied.”

This is no isolated prank. Spanish media and local councils report that more than 300 pools have been affected in recent seasons. Municipalities from Galicia and Valencia to Madrid, Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha and Catalonia have issued alerts.

Some towns have closed the same facilities multiple times in a single summer. Costs mount quickly: draining, refilling and lost revenue can run into thousands of euros per incident.

Fines for those caught range from €1,000 to several thousand euros, with bans from facilities, yet identification remains difficult because pools cannot install cameras in changing areas or demand ID on entry.

The Camp de Tarragona area, home to PortAventura, has been among the hardest hit. Nearby municipal pools in Vila-seca, l’Arboç and other towns have faced repeated shutdowns. Similar scenes have played out in Toledo, Zamora, Burgos, Jaén and across the Basque Country, where an Olympic-sized pool was evacuated in the middle of a heatwave.

Deliberately defecating in shared public spaces and spreading one’s own filth is not the act of a civilised person. It is literally the behaviour of animals. In nature, certain creatures mark territory with waste precisely to signal dominance, to claim space, and to drive off rivals.

What we are witnessing in Spanish pools is the same impulse, only now performed by humans who have been told their presence is an enrichment rather than a burden. When people treat public spaces as open sewers, they are asserting hierarchy in the most primitive way possible,.

This public health nuisance does not exist in a vacuum. It arrives against the backdrop of Spain’s accelerating migration crisis under the socialist-communist government of Pedro Sánchez.

In April, authorities launched a mass amnesty via emergency decree that opened the door for hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants to regularise their status, obtain work permits and move rapidly toward citizenship.

Queues of predominantly young men from Morocco, Algeria and elsewhere formed outside consulates as applicants scrambled for the required documents. The government initially spoke of around 500,000 people; applications soon exceeded one million.

By July the scale was clear: more than one million applications for legal status, granting recipients free movement rights across the entire Schengen zone.

Opposition figures, including Vox leader Santiago Abascal, accused Sánchez of engineering a long-term electoral advantage by naturalising large numbers of foreigners and altering the demographic balance.

European conservatives warned that the policy risks collapsing Schengen itself by allowing unrestricted onward travel. The New York Times, for its part, hailed Spain as a “beacon of the global left.”

That same open-border approach has played out dramatically in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. In late July and early August tens of thousands of mostly military-age men crossed from Morocco in a matter of days, overwhelming local services.

Beaches became open-air camps littered with waste. Hospitals reported outbreaks of scabies, measles and other infections. Police and military personnel assigned to clear the sites themselves contracted scabies.

Despite official claims that most would be returned, thousands remained, and the cycle of clearance and reoccupation continued. The visible impunity has emboldened further attempts to reach the Spanish mainland.

Just days ago, dinghies packed with North African men landed on tourist beaches near Cartagena, sending holidaymakers scrambling for their belongings.

Local mayors expressed fury at the ease with which the vessels reached shore undetected. The message from Ceuta appears to have travelled: if thousands can simply walk or swim into Spanish territory and face little lasting consequence, smaller acts of disruption elsewhere become easier to attempt.

The “brown challenge” sits at the intersection of social-media exhibitionism and the broader erosion of shared standards that accompanies rapid, unmanaged demographic change.

Public pools and waterparks are among the last remaining low-cost spaces where ordinary Spanish families and European tourists gather in summer. When those spaces are repeatedly rendered unusable by deliberate contamination, the social contract frays further.

Taxpayers fund the clean-ups. Parents keep children away. Businesses lose peak-season revenue. The pattern is familiar across Western Europe: facilities built by one population become contested or degraded under pressures introduced by another.

A country that once marketed itself as a premier holiday destination now contends with closed pools, stormed beaches and the quiet calculation by many natives that the old rules no longer apply equally to everyone.

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Tyler Durden
Sun, 08/23/2026 – 07:00

Escobar: How Trump Tried To Bribe The Head Of The IRGC

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Escobar: How Trump Tried To Bribe The Head Of The IRGC

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

Empire of Chaos, Lies, Plunder, Piracy. And bribes.

Mike Pompeo, former aspiring Tony Soprano, admitted: “We lie, we cheat, we steal.” And we bribe.

A Transition Protocol source, as we revealed live, is unequivocal: The President of the United States – despite having “won” the war on Iran countless times, at least in the Vociferation stakes – made a major attempt to induce IRGC Commander-in-Chief Gen. Ahmad Vahidi and senior Iranian military leadership to break with the government in Tehran through enormous financial inducements.

So here we have POTUS playing good ol’ Divide and Rule – which the Brits learned from the Roman Empire – to fracture the IRGC from the inside.

This was not a mere exploratory diplomatic contact. Trump did not merely want to determine whether Vahidi supported U.S.-Iran negotiations.

According to our source – placed in the tight inner circle of Leader Mojtaba Khamenei – this was a full leadership-buyout operation, modeled on the Venezuela playbook, to fracture the Iranian state.

The attempt miserably failed.

Because Ahmad Vahidi completely rejected it.

The Trump administration had already created a somewhat direct conduit to Vahidi through Nechirvan Barzani, the President of the Kurdistan Region in Iraq, way back in May 2026. Then-DNI Tulsi Gabbard contacted Barzani – fully authorized by Trump and Vice-President JD Vance – and an encrypted connection to Vahidi was subsequently established through Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The channel stayed dormant – or in coma, for nearly 3 months. This time though Trump attempted to turn the channel into a de facto fracturing of the Iranian leadership, employing the conceptual precedent in Venezuela: isolate the central command; handsomely bribe those immediately around it for “cooperation”; and create the internal conditions for regime decapitation.

The source describes “billions of dollars” being waved as inducements to several members of the senior IRGC leadership through Vahidi. All that while Trump was on Hardcore Vociferation mode threatening Tehran and spinning his “control” of the Strait of Hormuz.

Nothing so far has been independently confirmed in public. And probably will not. But that does not mean the source is not credible.

The source is part of Leader Mojtaba’s tight inner circle; heard all about it directly from Vahidi; and later was fully authorized to disclose the extremely sensitive information to Pakistani mediators, especially Field Marshal Asim Munir, who Trump keeps calling virtually every day asking for “help” getting the Iranians back at the negotiating table (when he in fact blew up the negotiating table).

I bribe, therefore I am

Vahidi is not a peripheral military figure. Far from it: he is the commander of the IRGC – the institutional center of gravity of Iranian hard power. The Trump administration wanted access to the top of the IRGC itself.

But they bet on the wrong man. The number two man in Iran right now, overseeing everything including top IRGC decisions, is Mohsen Rezaee: the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and personal representative of Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Mohsen Rezaee is a former IRGC commander and his leadership is uncontested – as proven by the trust placed in him by the Leader. The overarching framework guiding his decisions – and people like Vahidi – is the Shi’te sense of moral duty, ethics, self-sacrifice and the spirit of Sovereign Resistance, values completely alien to an Empire of Grifters.

It’s no wonder that a crass neo-Crassus in War-a-Lago/Washington actually believed that a battle-tested military leader – and those around him – could sell the fate of a civilization-state for a mere bribe, and induced to defect, stand aside or facilitate regime change.

Applying the exact same Venezuela methodology means that the Trump administration actually believed they could translate it to a Shi’ite Iran context. That proves once again an astonishing degree of cultural stupidity.

The methodology may work for corrupt Latin American political/military elites: History tells us it happened so many times.

But to believe that offering protection, political survival, loads of money and/or a future share of the spoils to an IRGC that is far from being a loose political entourage around a vulnerable presidential palace fully demonstrates how the Empire of Grifters has no clue about the institutional cohesion of the Iranian security state.

All across the Global South, this will be regarded for what it is: another episode of the neo-Crassus Art of the Deal.

Complementing another recent episode, where the capo fraternizes with the DPRK then asks South Korea – “I asked for $10 billion” – for protection money.

That’s the pizzo. Not to be confused with pizza. Pizzo is Sicilian slang for extortion money.

Mafia, piracy, bribing, extortion: talk about a flexible Empire at work.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/22/2026 – 23:20

Visualizing Every US State’s Economy Matched To A Country

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Visualizing Every US State’s Economy Matched To A Country

America’s largest state economies rank alongside some of the biggest economies in the world. Even further down the list, many individual states produce hundreds of billions of dollars in economic output each year.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Gabriel Cohen, pairs each U.S. state with the country closest to it in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.

The Big Four State Economies

At $4.3 trillion, California would rank among the world’s five largest economies if it were an independent country. Its closest match on the map is the United Kingdom.

Texas, meanwhile, has a $2.9 trillion economy, putting it closest to Russia. Both are major energy powerhouses, particularly in oil and gas.

The table below lists U.S. states alongside their closest country equivalents in nominal GDP terms.

State 2025 Nominal GDP (billions $) Approx. Country Equivalent
Alabama 341 🇵🇪 Peru
Alaska 75 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan
Arizona 598 🇦🇹 Austria
Arkansas 198 🇲🇦 Morocco
California 4251 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
Colorado 584 🇹🇭 Thailand
Connecticut 376 🇮🇷 Iran
Delaware 117 🇬🇭 Ghana
District of Columbia 193 🇺🇦 Ukraine
Florida 1835 🇦🇺 Australia
Georgia 925 🇹🇼 Taiwan
Hawaii 125 🇬🇹 Guatemala
Idaho 136 🇰🇪 Kenya
Illinois 1202 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
Indiana 545 🇳🇴 Norway
Iowa 277 🇬🇷 Greece
Kansas 241 🇭🇺 Hungary
Kentucky 307 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan
Louisiana 340 🇫🇮 Finland
Maine 103 🇨🇷 Costa Rica
Maryland 568 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates
Massachusetts 820 🇹🇼 Taiwan
Michigan 730 🇧🇪 Belgium
Minnesota 531 🇻🇳 Vietnam
Mississippi 165 🇰🇼 Kuwait
Missouri 468 🇩🇰 Denmark
Montana 82 🇲🇲 Myanmar
Nebraska 198 🇺🇦 Ukraine
Nevada 281 🇩🇿 Algeria
New Hampshire 126 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic
New Jersey 887 🇹🇼 Taiwan
New Mexico 153 🇸🇰 Slovakia
New York 2468 🇨🇦 Canada
North Carolina 894 🇹🇼 Taiwan
North Dakota 82 🇸🇮 Slovenia
Ohio 967 🇵🇱 Poland
Oklahoma 274 🇳🇿 New Zealand
Oregon 343 🇵🇹 Portugal
Pennsylvania 1056 🇨🇭 Switzerland
Rhode Island 84 🇺🇾 Uruguay
South Carolina 379 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
South Dakota 81 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan
Tennessee 590 🇸🇬 Singapore
Texas 2904 🇷🇺 Russia
Utah 316 🇫🇮 Finland
Vermont 48 🇧🇭 Bahrain
Virginia 798 🇧🇪 Belgium
Washington 895 🇹🇼 Taiwan
West Virginia 109 🇪🇹 Ethiopia
Wisconsin 473 🇲🇾 Malaysia
Wyoming 53 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
🇺🇸 U.S. 30762 🇨🇳🇩🇪🇯🇵 China, Germany, Japan

New York’s $2.5 trillion economy is roughly the same size as Canada’s GDP. Meanwhile, Florida’s $1.8 trillion economy is closest to Australia, the largest economy in Oceania.

Together, these four states would each qualify for the Group of 20 (G20) if they were independent countries.

State-to-Country GDP Matches

Further down the list, Illinois has a $1.2 trillion GDP that is roughly the same size as Saudi Arabia’s, though its economy is far more diversified. Pennsylvania follows at $1.1 trillion, placing it closest to Switzerland.

Taiwan is the closest country match for four states: Georgia, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington.

The nation’s capital, Washington, D.C., has a nearly $200 billion GDP, putting it closest to Ukraine. Nebraska is also similar in economic size.

The U.S. Economy in the World

Overall, the U.S. has a $30.8 trillion national GDP, roughly equal to the combined output of China, Germany, and Japan, the world’s next three largest economies.

That national scale helps explain why individual states can match the economic output of major countries around the world.

To learn more about the future prospects of the world’s largest economy, check out What’s Next for the U.S. Economy? on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/22/2026 – 22:45

When The Rule Of Law Fails

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When The Rule Of Law Fails

Authored by Madge Waggy,

What follows emerges from seventeen months of examination into procedural collapses, constitutional erosions, and institutional betrayals that have accelerated beyond the capacity of conventional reportage to capture. Sources include former jurists who resigned rather than participate in predetermined outcomes, law enforcement officials who documented unlawful commands, and archival materials that reveal pattern precedents for contemporary ruptures. We present this analysis not to provoke despair, but to examine the anatomy of dissolution while recognition might still permit response. The reader is advised that the trajectory described has proceeded beyond the point where electoral mechanisms offer remedy, and that preparation for post-constitutional conditions constitutes rational response to empirical observation.

The Fracturing: When Marble Crumbles Beneath Velvet

Observe the edifice. Not the facade of columned grandeur that photographs well for tourist brochures, but the load-bearing structures that sustain civic order. The mortar between stones has been leaching for decades, replaced with expedient compounds that harden briefly then powder under pressure. What appears solid to casual inspection reveals, upon closer examination, the honeycombed fragility of termite-gnawed timber.

The rule of law – that abstraction upon which millions have wagered their lives, their fortunes, their sacred honor – has not been abolished. Far more insidiously, it has been instrumentalized. Transformed from constraint upon power into weapon wielded by power. The distinction matters. Abolition would provoke resistance. Instrumentalization induces learned helplessness, the conditioned response of laboratory animals who no longer attempt escape because previous attempts have been punished.

Consider the mechanism. Statutes remain on codified pages. Precedents still fill bound volumes. Theatrical performances of judicial process continue in robed solemnity. But the outcomes – the actual distribution of force, property, liberty – now proceed according to criteria that cannot be publicly acknowledged without unraveling the legitimacy upon which enforcement depends. The law has become Schrodinger’s cat: simultaneously alive and dead, its state determined only upon observation, and then retroactively justified through reasoning so tortured it would extract confessions from stone.

Heavy stillness pervades courthouse corridors where verdicts arrive prepackaged. Muffled air absorbs the footsteps of attorneys who have learned that vigorous advocacy risks bar sanctions, that certain defendants cannot be acquitted regardless of evidence, that particular prosecutions must proceed regardless of merit. Where once adversarial collision generated truth through friction, now choreographed collusion produces predetermined outcomes with the mechanical inevitability of assembly-line fabrication.

The Inversion: How Protection Became Predation

Examine the metamorphosis of institutions whose founding purpose was circumscription of state violence. Police forces established to apprehend actual predators now function as extraction mechanisms, their revenue-generation priorities transforming citizens into quarry. Courts erected to adjudicate disputes now operate as processing facilities, their dockets clogged with statutory violations that lack injured parties, their calendars dominated by plea arrangements that obviate evidentiary examination. Legislatures convened to express popular will now manufacture complexity so impenetrable that compliance becomes impossible, thereby manufacturing the criminality that justifies expansion.

The inversion is nearly complete. The FBI – originally chartered to investigate interstate criminality – now devotes substantial resources to manufacturing terrorism through entrapment of vulnerable individuals, then publicizing these manufactured plots as justification for expanded surveillance. The IRS – created to fund legitimate governance – now functions as political enforcement arm, its audit selections targeting ideological opponents with statistical improbability that defies random explanation. The regulatory apparatus – ostensibly protecting consumers – now serves as barrier to entry for competitors of established conglomerates, its compliance costs crushing small enterprise while manageable for entities that can afford dedicated compliance departments.

Each institution, examined individually, displays symptoms of capture. Examined collectively, they reveal systemic transformation. The heavy stillness of bureaucratic inertia now serves not popular interest but consolidated power. The muffled air of administrative process now muffles dissent rather than amplifying resolution. Where footsteps once dissolved into the marble floors of public buildings as citizens approached for redress, now those same footsteps echo ominously as warnings to others who might seek similar remedy.

The Dissolution: Precedents of Collapse

Historical memory – when not actively suppressed – offers instruction. Rome’s transition from republic to imperium did not occur through single coup but through incremental usurpations, each justified by emergency, each ratified by senatorial acquiescence, each establishing precedent for subsequent expansion. The Weimar Republic’s dissolution proceeded through “legal” mechanisms: emergency decrees, enabling acts, judicial appointments that transformed interpretation rather than overturning text. The Soviet Union’s constitutional guarantees – extensive on paper – provided no protection against party-state fusion that rendered law irrelevant to power.

American exceptionalism – the comforting delusion that geography or founding documents confer immunity to these patterns – has prevented recognition of their local manifestation. But the patterns are unmistakable to unprejudiced observation. Executive orders that bypass legislative process. Judicial opinions that discover meanings in constitutional text invisible to centuries of prior readers. Administrative regulations that carry criminal penalties despite absent legislative authorization. Each instance, defended as isolated necessity, contributes to cumulative precedent that transforms limited government into unlimited discretion.

The weathered limestone arches of Monticello and Independence Hall – physical remnants of founding generation aspirations – now frame populations whose understanding of those aspirations has been systematically eroded through educational institutions that treat constitutional limitations as obstacles to be overcome rather than protections to be preserved. The brutalist concrete contours of contemporary government buildings – deliberately imposing, alienating, inhuman – materialize the relationship between state and citizen that has replaced the founding vision: not service but domination, not representation but management, not consent but submission.

The Documentation: Evidence Accumulating in Shadows

Paper trails exist for those willing to excavate. Memoranda from intelligence agencies acknowledging warrantless surveillance of domestic communications. Emails between regulatory officials and regulated entities arranging enforcement forbearance in exchange for political contributions. Testimony from inspectors general describing evidence destruction and witness intimidation. Each document, individually, might be dismissed as aberration. Collectively, they constitute pattern.

Pattern recognition requires connecting dots that institutional gatekeepers insist remain separate. The prosecutor who declines to charge politically connected defendants while pursuing vindictive prosecutions of ideological opponents. The judge who grants injunctions against executive action when initiated by one party while denying identical relief when sought by another. The agency that expedites permits for favored projects while interminably delaying competitors through “environmental review” that never concludes. The dots connect into constellations that map the actual distribution of power, regardless of formal organizational charts.

Heavy stillness settles upon archives where these documents molder, their FOIA requests buried under procedural delay, their whistleblower origins punished through professional destruction, their contents dismissed by media organs that function as stenographers for power rather than interrogators of it. Muffled air chokes the corridors where investigators once pursued corruption regardless of partisan affiliation, before such pursuit became itself career-limiting. Where footsteps once dissolved into purposeful stride toward accountability, now they falter, hesitate, retreat.

The Mechanism: How Legitimacy Dissolves Without Announcement

Governments do not typically announce their own termination. They demonstrate it through behavior that renders their own rules optional, their own constraints ignorable, their own legitimacy claims farcical. The demonstration accumulates gradually, each instance building upon predecessors, until the accumulation reaches critical mass where recognition becomes unavoidable.

That mass approaches. Consider: the executive who declares emergencies that do not exist, then exercises powers that emergencies justify. The legislature that delegates its lawmaking authority to unelected administrators, then expresses outrage at administrative outcomes while retaining delegation. The judiciary that discovers rights invisible to constitutional text while ignoring rights explicitly enumerated. The law enforcement that enforces against disfavored groups while ignoring identical conduct by favored groups. The taxation that extracts for purposes never authorized, through mechanisms never legislated, from targets never represented.

Each instance, individually, might be rationalized. Collectively, they announce that the rules apply only to those who lack power to exempt themselves. And once that announcement becomes unmistakable – once the population recognizes that compliance is for suckers, that the system is rigged, that the game is fixed – the final dissolution accelerates. Not through revolution but through withdrawal. The productive cease producing. The cooperative cease cooperating. The law-abiding cease abiding. The social fabric – already threadbare – shreds entirely.

The Precipice: Recognition and Its Consequences

Those who recognize pattern face unenviable choice. Vocal acknowledgment risks targeting. Silent acquiescence enables continuation. Preparation without announcement offers only partial protection, and that protection temporary. The heavy stillness that pervades recognition is not peaceful contemplation but coiled tension, the muffled air of suppressed violence that precedes rupture.

Historical precedent suggests that governmental dissolution – when it arrives – proceeds rapidly once initiated. Not gradually, but catastrophically. The institutions that seemed permanent reveal their contingency. The protections that seemed guaranteed prove illusory. The authorities that commanded respect command only fear, then not even that. The weathered limestone arches crumble. The brutalist concrete contours crack. Where footsteps once dissolved into ordered procession, now they stampede toward exits that prove too narrow, too few, too late.

Preparation for such moments requires more than material stockpiling. It requires psychological adjustment to conditions where legal recourse no longer exists, where institutional protection has evaporated, where self-reliance becomes not virtue but necessity. The adjustment is painful for generations conditioned to believe that authority exists to serve them, that systems function to protect them, that rules apply equally to powerful and powerless.

That belief – already strained to breaking – will not survive the next phase. The recognition that it was always belief rather than fact, always hope rather than observation, always delusion rather than reality, constitutes the final trauma that precedes either submission or resistance. The choice between those outcomes is being made now, in countless individual decisions that aggregate into civilizational trajectory, even as the heavy stillness persists, the muffled air thickens, and footsteps dissolve not into purpose but into paralysis.

The warning has been issued. The pattern has been documented. The precipice has been reached. What follows is not prediction but observation: the rule of law has failed. The government that claimed its protection has ended, not with announcement, but with demonstration. Recognition of that ending – now unavoidable – constitutes the beginning of whatever comes next.

This article was originally published on MadgeWaggy.blogspot.com. h/t Lew Rockwell

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/22/2026 – 22:10

Inside America’s Drone Arms Race: What Industry Experts See Ahead Of Procurement Supercycle

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Inside America’s Drone Arms Race: What Industry Experts See Ahead Of Procurement Supercycle

Our coverage of America’s Group 1 to Group 3 drone industry has centered on Unusual Machines and Ondas, two companies positioned to reap the benefits from what could become a historic procurement cycle next year. The catalyst is the Department of War’s Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, which is preparing to direct $55 billion toward autonomous systems. If that spending materializes as planned, companies offering NDAA-compliant drones and drone components, scalable manufacturing capacity, and field-ready platforms should be best positioned to capture the coming flood of orders.

For more clarity on the drone space, Canaccord Genuity recently hosted the “Drone Dominion” panel, which included executives from AeroVironment, Leonardo DRS, Unusual Machines, Codan Tactical Communications, and Juno Industries.

“The panel opened with a consensus that drone warfare has shifted from individual aircraft for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance applications to massed, expendable strike systems with growing remote autonomy,” Austin Moeller, Canaccord Genuity’s senior aerospace and defense technology equity-research analyst, wrote in a note Thursday.

Moeller’s summary of the panel discussion provides investors with a useful framework for understanding the drone space and identifying the companies best positioned to benefit from a potential procurement supercycle, as demand for Group 1 to Group 3 drones, counter-UAS systems, and domestically sourced NDAA-compliant parts is poised to accelerate.

Drone dominion

We hosted management of Leonardo DRS (DRS), AeroVironment (AVAV), Unusual Machines (UMAC), Codan DTC, and Juno Industries at the 46th Annual Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference in Boston for a Drone/C-UAS panel discussion. Our panel included Leonardo DRS CEO John Baylouny, AeroVironment COO Dr. Robert Smith, Unusual Machines COO Drew Camden, Codan Tactical Communications President and Executive General Manager Paul Sangster, and former Canadian Minister of National Defense and Juno Industries Executive Chairman, Harjit Sajjan. The panel discussed how drone warfare has evolved from being primarily an ISR platform to widespread adoption as autonomous and expendable/attritable tactical and one-way attack systems, along with the corresponding urgent need for counter-UAS layered air defenses, secure supply chains, and integrated battlefield C2 systems and AI edge compute.

The panel opened with a consensus that drone warfare has shifted from individual aircraft for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance applications to massed, expendable strike systems with growing remote autonomy. John Baylouny stated that drones are now weapons that must make sense of the battlefield, and Harjit Sajjan emphasized that integrating sensors into battle management systems to enable fusion/processing of data is central to making those strike capabilities practical and useful. The panel agreed this transition changes not only platform design but also how forces employ drones; for instance, moving from a handful of high-end assets to large numbers of lower-cost munitions used en masse (swarms) to saturate and overwhelm air defenses and targets. This dynamic forces the industry to prioritize rapid iteration and high-volume manufacturing, modular payloads, and mission-tailored autonomy so systems can be adopted and modified quickly as tactics and countermeasures evolve in the field.

The panel agreed that battlefield advantage now depends on resilient, secure command-and-control (C2) networks that connect drones, sensors, weapons platforms, and operators into rapid decision-making workflows. Paul Sangster explained that today’s battlefield is far more networked, requiring secure mesh communications that tie drones, sensors, and vehicles into rapid decision loops. Dr. Rob Smith and the others noted that the tactical advantage now comes from how quickly collected sensor data can be communicated to warfighters and platforms and acted upon, which has elevated architecture, encryption, and waveform design to operational-level priorities. The panel emphasized that interoperability is a prerequisite for scaling effective multi-platform operations. Speakers warned that contested-spectrum environments and adversary cyber-attack tactics could quickly degrade the benefits of massed drone operations unless resilience and redundancy are built into C2 designs.

Counter-UAS defenses being layered and multi-modal were stressed by the panel. Mr. Baylouny described systems combining radar, IR identification, and multiple effectors (e.g., DRS’ Sgt. Stout Stryker air artillery Mission Equipment Package). Dr. Smith outlined a layered approach beginning with Radio Frequency (RF) detection and Electronic Warfare (EW) at standoff ranges, then lasers for cost-effective engagement within line-of-sight, and kinetic interceptors when necessary. Speakers emphasized mobility and integrated C2 so that different defeat mechanisms can be applied as threats evolve, reflecting a pragmatic view that no single technology will defeat every class of drone. As a result, the defense tech market is making investments in software/AI platforms, sensors (radar, RF, EO, IR/thermal), directed energy, and affordable kinetic interceptors to create adaptable defense mechanisms for various defensive scenarios for both point-defense and on-the-move.

Drew Camden and Rob Smith argued that expanding domestic production capacity requires predictable govt. demand and long-term procurement commitments. Manufacturers depend on these factors so that they can invest in facilities, automation, and long-term supplier relationships.

They stated that US systems will likely differ in capability from mass-produced foreign drones (Ukrainian drones are using Chinese Raspberry Pis and motors, for example) and that programs like Drone Dominance must create steady, multi-year volume procurement plans such as IDIQs/OTAs to make rapid scaling feasible without stopping and restarting fragile supply chains. Firms are already redirecting R&D and IRAD into domestic tooling and manufacturing readiness to shorten the timeline from prototype to fielded production and advance-purchasing materials inventory for when multi-year contracts are in place, and demand is present. In practice, policymakers must align procurement, financing, and industrial policy to reduce production ramp-up time, reduce lead times for critical components, and stabilize the supply chain.

Speakers raised concerns about deep supply chain and security/espionage concerns. The panel discussed challenges in removing Chinese-made components and subcomponents, as well as securing rare earth materials, noting that compliance requires tracing multiple layers down the supply chain. Many A&D primes have found Chinese materials or components as they investigate deeper into their supply chains. Mr. Sajjan cautioned against focusing on a single supplier or country and urged comprehensive evaluation with trusted national agencies, while Mr. Baylouny described efforts internally to look five or six layers deep to discover where materials and components truly originate from. Mr. Camden explained his company’s strategy of bringing parts, and eventually, chips and motors onshore. He added that while Unusual Machines had initially been sourcing drone motors from China, the company is now doing its own winding with machines in a similar production process to Chinese drone company T-MOTOR. Dr. Smith emphasized the importance of firmware screening, cyber red-teaming, and holistic assurance practices. Addressing these challenges will require sustained funding, clearer regulatory standards (e.g., NDAA and ITAR), and closer public-private partnerships to create resilience and chain of custody among supply chains.

Finally, the panel emphasized that training and acquisition practices must be reformed to keep pace with evolving drone tactics and technologies. Mr. Baylouny argued that the old “design, build, and buy thousands” government PoR model is too slow and called for experiment-driven acquisition. Mr. Sajjan highlighted the importance of close user-developer feedback so deployed troops can refine and optimize systems with their designers for real-world missions. Mr. Camden pointed to improvised civilian and government innovations seen in Ukraine as evidence that militaries must be able to adapt new concepts and strategies quickly. Dr. Smith reinforced that predictable demand signals will also enable investment in the training, sustainment, and industrial pipelines needed to scale manufacturing capabilities. To turn technological advances into enduring operational advantage, the panel concluded that reforms across procurement and training must move forward along with technical, military, and industrial initiatives.

Our mid-June initiation report, “How To Profit From the Asymmetric Warfare Boom” … 

… first identified the leading public and private companies positioned across the drone and counter-drone space.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/22/2026 – 21:35

Family Structure Determines Kids’ Success In School More Than Race Or Income, Researchers Say

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Family Structure Determines Kids’ Success In School More Than Race Or Income, Researchers Say

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times,

While universities debate whether to skip standardized admissions tests and the University of Michigan waives first-term grades for some incoming students, new research suggests that relaxing standards might not be the best way to help kids who are struggling in school.

A science teacher works with her students at a high school in Homestead, Fla., on March 10, 2017. Rhona Wise/AFP via Getty Images

The new report by the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) and the American Enterprise Institute, based on data collected from grade school students by the National Survey of Children’s Health, focused on how kids performed in school and what they said about their home life. The report found that “family structure is a more powerful predictor of school problems, academic performance, and depression than are race and poverty.”

The Department of Education’s Nation’s Report Card sorts results by race, sex or income, but it ignores family structures even though it has been collecting data on that factor since 2013, researchers said.

By contrast, the report looked at “whether or not kids are being raised by their own mother and father,” IFS Senior Fellow Brad Wilcox said, and they found that family structure was often a more important factor in children’s well-being.

“It’s pretty clear that the character of the family you grew up in is more important than the color of your skin,” Wilcox told The Epoch Times.

The study reported that 74 percent of children from “intact, married-parent families” achieved top grades (As and Bs), compared with 60 percent of children from “other family structures.” In addition, the IFS stated that children who were not raised by both biological parents were 47 percent more likely to have disciplinary problems at school and more than twice as likely to be depressed.

“Raising children in a stable married family is incredibly helpful to kids,” Wilcox said.

Graduating Without Basic Skills

The IFS’s findings come at a time when data increasingly indicates that many American children are struggling in school, and looking at grades may not even show the full picture. Reports and anecdotes suggest that even among students who receive passing grades, many are not learning basic skills.

The National Literacy Institute reports that 64 percent of America’s fourth graders do not read proficiently, and more than half of American adults now read below a sixth-grade level. And statewide reports are indicating that grade school children are being passed on to the next grade, or graduating, regardless of whether or not they have basic reading and math skills.

In 2023, Baltimore City schools announced that they would “avoid the punitive approach of failing students,” citing effects of school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. This followed a 2021 report by the state of Maryland, which said that across the state, “approximately half of the students who graduated high school and enrolled in a Maryland college or university in 2013 were assessed to need remediation in math, English, and/or reading.”

Studies in Texas, Alabama, and Missouri over the past two decades showed similar findings.

A 2025 report from the University of California-San Diego stated that the math skills of one-in-12 incoming students were below a middle school level. More recently, University of California-Berkeley mathematics professor Zvezdelina Stankova said in an op-ed for the San Francisco Standard that she had to pause her calculus course in order to teach her students middle-school level algebra and fractions.

In many cases, the response from schools has been to accommodate a lack of basic skills by loosening assessment tests, or getting rid of them altogether. Currently, more than 2,000 colleges and universities, including some Ivy League and state universities, do not require standardized tests like the SAT and the ACT as a criterion for admission.

In a possible case of “grade inflation,” Harvard University reported that 60 percent of the grades given to students in 2024–25 were As, up from about 25 percent in 2005–06. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s College of Literature, Science, and the Arts announced that starting in the fall of 2027, it would refrain from giving grades to incoming students during their first term, in order to “curb the mental health crisis unfolding among college-aged individuals.”

Family Structure

According to Wilcox, focusing on family structures is likely a better solution than inflating or avoiding grades. He advocates, among other things, making Americans aware of the difference it makes to kids’ success when both parents are raising them in a stable home.

“Not every couple who are having kids should get married and not every couple who are married should stay married,” Wilcox said. “But it’s important when it comes to having and raising kids to do what you can to be married and to stay married.”

In an effort to keep parents together, some advocates have called for the removal of what they call the “marriage penalty,” which occurs when two individuals with similar incomes marry, pushing their joint income to a level that exceeds welfare eligibility.

“Marriage penalties are one of the most damaging and misguided features of the federal welfare system,” said Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) in a statement. “For decades, Washington has punished families for getting married, discouraging responsibility and trapping parents and children in long-term dependency.”

Based on federal data, the IFS states that only 3 percent of subsidized housing serves two adults with children, compared with 30 percent that goes to a female head with children.

The IFS report states that family trends in America are tilting in a slightly positive direction, however. The proportion of American children living in married families hit a low point of 64 percent in 2012, and has since increased to 66 percent as of 2024.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/22/2026 – 21:00

US Navy Live-Fire Tests Drone Sailboat With Missile Launcher

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US Navy Live-Fire Tests Drone Sailboat With Missile Launcher

Once known primarily for capturing dramatic footage from inside hurricanes and tropical storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, Saildrone’s autonomous surface vessels have evolved into dual-use platforms that recently demonstrated the ability to deploy Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles (JAGM).

California-based Saildrone revealed in a press release that its unmanned surface vehicle (USV) launched two Lockheed Martin JAGM missiles for the first time during the Rim of the Pacific exercise off Hawaii.

According to Saildrone, the 20-meter Surveyor drone participated in the live-fire exercise in coordination with the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.

The Surveyor used targeting data on a surrogate high-speed surface craft and executed the engagement through the Navy’s Adjunct Remote Engagement System, or ARES, a remotely operated combat system. The test demonstrated how drone vessels could supplement the missile capacity of carrier strike groups while remaining deployed in contested waters, such as the Strait of Hormuz or other maritime chokepoints, for extended periods.

“This successful live-fire demonstration was the result of pairing one of the most tried and trusted munitions with the most operationally deployed class of USV on the planet,” Saildrone CEO Richard Jenkins wrote in a statement.

Jenkins noted, “Not only does this deliver mission-ready, kinetic USV capability today, but it also de-risks and accelerates our journey of fitting more sophisticated kinetic capabilities, like the Mk70 launcher, to our larger platform, the Saildrone Specter. Saildrone will continue to develop our platform capabilities to meet the rapidly evolving operational requirements of our customers.”

The US Navy has adopted the drone-boat warfare playbook pioneered by Ukraine, recently deploying Saronic Corsair one-way attack drone boats near the Strait of Hormuz to target Iran’s Bandar Abbas naval base.

More importantly, drone-boat operations and live-fire testing signal what could be a massive Department of War procurement supercycle spanning unmanned surface vessels and Group 1 through Group 3 aerial drones.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/22/2026 – 20:25

For Decades, The United States Ignored Latin America. All That Changed Under Trump.

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For Decades, The United States Ignored Latin America. All That Changed Under Trump.

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

In a pre-dawn raid in January, Delta Force soldiers burst in on a sleeping Nicolás Maduro, capturing the Venezuelan leader wanted on U.S. narco-terrorism charges.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Public Domain

The dramatic end of Maduro’s control over a country emblematic of left-wing politics underscored Latin America’s shift to the political right.

Since late 2025, the leadership has flipped from left to right in five Latin American countries: Bolivia, Chile, Honduras, Peru, and Colombia. Uruguay did the opposite, shifting from right to left in November 2024, the same month Trump was reelected.

The conservative realignment under Trump comes as his administration has refocused on America’s southern neighbors in what has been dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine” – a play on the Monroe Doctrine, which asserted U.S. dominance over the region.

Gone is the “pink tide,” a wave of “soft” communism that emerged in Latin America in the late 1990s and extended into the 2000s before reemerging in the early 2020s.

The era gave rise to prominent left-wing leaders such as Maduro’s predecessor, Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, and Bolivia’s Evo Morales, whose takeover of oil and gas production tanked his country’s economy.

Experts believe a combination of Trump’s influence, along with economic and security concerns – two areas of strength for conservative candidates – has triggered a reversal of fortunes for leftist governments in the region.

Trump endorsed a number of right-wing candidates in Latin America. In December 2025, he endorsed Chile’s José Antonio Kast, who won a landslide election against the communist candidate Jeannette Jara in December 2025. That same month, Nasry Asfura, a Trump-backed conservative, snatched victory away from Honduras’s socialist government.

The president also supported Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella, who this year edged out Iván Cepeda, a left-wing opponent aligned with outgoing leader Gustavo Petro, a former Marxist guerrilla.

In four of the five countries, conservatives also made gains in their respective legislatures. Only Colombia saw the left actually gain legislative seats, but neither side holds a majority in its two chambers.

In Bolivia, no party won an outright majority, but the conservative government became the largest force in both chambers of its legislature, while conservative factions together make up a supermajority in both chambers of Bolivia’s government. The former leftist government retained only two seats.

Honduras’s single legislative chamber gained conservative seats on the coattails of Asfura’s victory. In Chile’s legislature, a conservative coalition controls the lower chamber, while the upper chamber is evenly split. Likewise, Peru’s conservative bloc holds a plurality but not a majority in the lower chamber, while the upper chamber is evenly divided.

Crime and Economics

Latin America’s conservative trend was sparked by disappointment with leftist governments, which led to increased organized crime and inflation, according to Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, a Germany-based international political analysis group.

Of 16 democracies with populations greater than 1 million people, 10 have changed political direction since 2022, mostly from left to right, according to the report and recent updates.

Of those examined, only Brazil, Guatemala, Mexico, and Uruguay currently have left-wing governments.

Venezuela, which wasn’t counted as a democracy, remains in political limbo after Maduro’s removal, leaving his Vice President Delcy Rodríguez in charge. Cuba remains under communist control that took root in the 1950s. Another country not included in the survey was Nicaragua, ruled by former left-wing guerrilla leader Daniel Ortega, who has been consolidating power since 2007. He recently announced the nation would cease to hold elections.

Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez attends a ceremony for the signing of an agreement between Chevron Venezuela and the national government at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas, Venezuela, on April 13, 2026. Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images

Guyana, which has about 1 million residents, holds democratic elections but remains firmly in the grasp of socialists.

Just as Maduro’s demise signaled the end of the old communist guard, figures such as Argentina’s golden chainsaw-wielding leader Javier Milei symbolize the rise of conservative populist leaders.

“Figures such as Javier Milei in Argentina and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador embody the new political mood with their populist strategies, while moderate conservatives such as Luis Abinader in the Dominican Republic prioritize stability and pragmatism,” according to the report.

U.S. policy has reinforced the region’s conservative vibe, the report said, leading to positive relationships with right-wing leaders.

“This is hardly surprising given that Washington recently announced its intent to actively support like-minded political forces in the Western Hemisphere, to expand trade relations, and to stabilize Latin American countries in line with its own interests,” the report states.

Argentinian presidential candidate Javier Milei lifts a chainsaw during a rally in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Sept. 25, 2023.

‘Trump Effect’

Joshua Trevino, senior director for the Western Hemisphere Initiative at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, said having a conservative in the White House has driven change in Latin America.

Trump’s influence and policies have contributed to Latin America turning away from socialism and communism, he said.

“So what we see is a Trump administration effect to a lot of it,” he told The Epoch Times. “We can have a lot more open optimism in Latin America than we previously did.”

Read the rest here…

Tyler Durden
Sat, 08/22/2026 – 19:50