Former Russian President and top Kremlin national security official Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that European leaders had failed to outplay Donald Trump, and that it remains unclear just how Ukraine’s Zelensky will prevent the issue of territorial concessions.

White House officials, including Trump himself in prior statements, have made it known that compromise regarding territory is indeed on the table. “The anti-Russian warmongering Coalition of the Willing failed to outplay @POTUS on his turf,” Medvedev said on X. “Europe thanked & sucked up to him.” The below optics certainly don’t contradict Medvedev. One commenter observes that Trump had likely “been waiting for a moment like this his whole life”…

I suppose Trump had been waiting for a moment like this his whole life…

If you truly represent a sovereign nation, you don’t just go along. You tell the host that this spectacle is humiliating, that he can play those games with others – but you don’t allow yourself to be… pic.twitter.com/t87UOaKgH8

— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) August 19, 2025

Medvedev said the question remains “what tune” Zelenskyy would play “about guarantees & territories back home, once he’s put on his green military uniform again.”

It is true that far-right elements within his own military and political establishment would react fiercely to any acts of territorial concessions – which would likely result in acts of violence, and possibly even threats on Zelensky’s life.

At the same time, coming off his Alaska summit with Trump, Russia’s President Putin remains firmly in the driver’s seat, amid steady ground advances on the battlefield.

During a break in Monday’s meeting among seven EU officials and Zelensky, German Chancellor Merz revealed during a break in talks, “the American president spoke with the Russian president on the phone and agreed that there would be a meeting between the Russian president and the Ukrainian president within the next two weeks.”

But whether this happens or not will largely depend of what happens in the interim, and Kiev’s attitude and statements on what it’s willing to concede.

The geopolitics source Moon of Alabama highlights the perspective of former MI6 official and diplomat Alastair Crooke in the following:

Alastair Crooke suggests (video) that the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will follow the outline of the Istanbul Agreement negotiated in March 2022 between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine, under pressure from the West, had at that time refrained from signing it.

The Istanbul Agreement did include security guarantees (emphasis added):

The agreement assumes:
…
2. Possible guarantor states: Great Britain, China, Russia, the United States, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Israel. The free accession of other states to the treaty is proposed, in particular the Russian Federation proposes Belarus.
…
4. Ukraine does not join any military alliances, does not deploy foreign military bases and contingents, and conducts international military exercises only with the consent of the guarantor states. For their part, the guarantor states confirm their intention to promote Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.

5. The guarantor states and Ukraine agree that in the event of aggression, any armed attack on Ukraine or any military operation against Ukraine, each of the Guarantor States, after urgent and immediate consultations between them (which shall be held within no more than three days), in the exercise of the right to individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will provide (in response to and on the basis of an official request from Ukraine) assistance to Ukraine, as a permanently neutral state under attack, by immediately taking such individual or joint action as may be necessary, including closing airspace over Ukraine, providing necessary weapons, using armed force in order to restore and subsequently maintain the security of Ukraine as a permanently neutral state.

Any such armed attack (any military operation) and all measures taken as a result thereof shall be immediately reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall cease when the Security Council takes the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

The mechanism for implementing security guarantees for Ukraine, based on the results of additional consultations between Ukraine and the Guarantor States, will be regulated in the Treaty, taking into account protection from possible provocations.

Again:

… such guarantee will of course come with conditions attached to it. Either Ukraine will accept those or it will never be secure from outer interference.

So yes, the Ukraine can have ‘security guarantees’. But the conditions of those will be set by the main guarantor – which has to be Russia.

Trump seems to have understood that. How long will it take those European ‘leaders’ to get it?

Alastair Crooke speaks to Judge Andrew Napolitano:

Some of the awkward moments, optics, and tensions on display in the White House on Monday are consistent with the above take…

Ups! 🇮🇹 Meloni verdreht die Augen, während 🇩🇪Kanzler Merz Trump belehrt, mit Putin erst ein Waffenstillstand zu vereinbaren. Nach Motto: ‚Ist doch schon lääängst vom Putin-Tisch, Friedrich!‘ – das war von Merz keine Stärke, wie viele in Berlin es gerne interpretieren wollen, er… pic.twitter.com/qo3gIYUPV5

— Zara Riffler (@ZaraRiffler) August 18, 2025

Below are some more Tuesday geopolitical headlines and developments via Newsquawk….

• US and Europe to work immediately on Ukraine security guarantees, via Bloomberg.
• Poland PM Tusk will take part in meeting of the Coalition of the Willing at 11:00BST/06:00EDT, according to a spokesperson.
• Ukraine Foreign Minister says future trilateral leaders meeting can bring a breakthrough on the path to peace.
• US President Trump posted that he had a very good meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders, which ended in a further meeting in the Oval Office and during the meeting, they discussed security guarantees for Ukraine, which would be provided by the various European countries with coordination with the US. Trump added everyone is very happy about the possibility of peace for Russia and Ukraine, and at the conclusion of the meetings, he called Russian President Putin and began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelensky. Furthermore, Trump said after that meeting takes place, they will have a trilateral between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, as well as noted that this was a very good, early step for a war that has been going on for almost four years and that VP Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and Special Envoy Witkoff are coordinating with Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia’s Kremlin said US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a phone call which lasted 40 minutes and they discussed the idea of exploring the possibility of raising the level of Russian and Ukrainian representatives in the negotiations, while Putin warmly thanked Trump for the hospitality and well-organized meeting in Alaska, as well as for progress achieved at the summit. Furthermore, Putin and Trump spoke in favour of the continuation of direct talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, while they agreed to continue close contact with each other on the Ukrainian crisis and other issues.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said we need not a pause in the war, but real peace and territorial issues will be decided between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky said he discussed security guarantees with Trump and European leaders, and received an important signal from the US on being part of security guarantees and help in coordinating it. Furthermore, he said the US offers to have a trilateral meeting as soon as possible and that Ukraine is ready for any format to meet with Putin.
• Ukraine reportedly offered a USD 100bln weapons deal to US President Trump in an effort to win security guarantees, according to the Financial Times citing documents laying out Kyiv’s proposal to Trump at the White House meeting.
• US Secretary of State Rubio told Fox News that they will work with European allies and non-European countries to build security guarantees for Ukraine. Rubio said he was in the room when Trump and Putin spoke, while he added that Trump suggested to Putin that he meet with Zelensky.
• NATO Secretary General Rutte said it was a very successful day in Washington where security guarantees were discussed and more details on security guarantees will be discussed in the coming days, while he added it is a breakthrough that the US will get involved and they are discussing some Article 5-type arrangement.
• European Commission President Von der Leyen said after the White House meeting that they are here as allies and friends for peace in Ukraine and in Europe, while she added this is an important moment as they continue to work on strong security guarantees for Ukraine.
• German Chancellor Merz that he feels these are decisive days for Ukraine and is not sure if Russian President Putin will have the courage to come to a summit with Zelensky present, while he added that expectations were not only met but were exceeded from this meeting. Merz also stated that US President Trump spoke with Russian President Putin and agreed that a Putin-Zelenskiy meeting will happen within two weeks, while the location is yet undecided, and that will be followed by a three-way meeting involving Trump.
• Finland’s President Stubb said they agreed on security guarantees and steps forward, as well as noted that talks were constructive and the Coalition of the Willing has already worked on security guarantees which they will build upon. Stubb also stated there is nothing concrete about US participation in security guarantees and that US President will inform them, with details of security guarantees to be ironed out in the next week or so.
• Debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone sparked a fire at an oil refinery and hospital in Russia’s Volgograd, according to the regional administration.
• North Korea leader Kim said joint US-South Korea military drills show willingness for war provocation, while he also stated that the security environment requires North Korea to expand its nuclear armament rapidly.
• “Israeli media: The Chief of Staff will present today to the Minister of Defense the plan to occupy Gaza City”, according to Al Arabiya.

* * *

The next big question and milestone will be whether this series of high-level peace meetings will continue, leading to the big trilateral Putin-Trump-Zelensky meeting that the White House is hoping for.

Update (0955ET):

New images circulating X show the damaged cargo ship MV W Sapphire after an explosion ripped through its forward hold near the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge on Monday evening. The vessel was sailing through Baltimore’s Inner Harbor shipping lane at the time of the incident, shortly after departing the CSX coal dock with a full load.

Shipping expert Sal Mercogliano wrote on X that the vessel remains anchored just north of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge. He said the image shows the number 1 hatch blown wide open, suggesting the explosion of a buildup of methane mixed with coal.

W Sapphire is still anchored just north of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.

This image shows the #1 hatch cover lying on top of the ship, indicating that the explosion – probably from a methane buildup, along with some coal – displaced it.

The ship will need to be surveyed &… https://t.co/Ad0o46JJTQ pic.twitter.com/stTtp0hKLS

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) August 19, 2025

An aerial image shows extensive damage to the number 1 hatch.

Aerial photo showing the damaged ship. #MVWSapphire pic.twitter.com/KXAmOqfvs3

— Andrew Doyle (@doyle0213) August 19, 2025

More details about the incident from MarineTraffic….

Fire on ship near Baltimore prompts rapid coast guard response

An #explosion aboard the W-Sapphire, a 751-foot cargo vessel en route to Mauritius, interrupted her departure from #Baltimore near the Francis Scott Key Bridge. #MarineTraffic data show the vessel departed at… pic.twitter.com/0lglOSdQHv

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) August 19, 2025

*   *   * 

An explosion has been reported on a cargo ship traveling through the outbound shipping lane of Baltimore’s Inner Harbor near the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge.

NEW – Cargo ship explodes near Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. pic.twitter.com/oQKld5xY4R

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) August 19, 2025

According to shipping expert Sal Mercogliano, the cargo ship MV W Sapphire “suffered an explosion in its forward hold” and was “fully loaded” at the time of the incident.

MV W Sapphire, outbound from Baltimore near the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, suffered an explosion in its forward hold.

The ship has been escorted off Fort Howard and fire and @USCG vessels are on scene.

W Sapphire is a fully loaded bulk carrier sailing to Mauritius. pic.twitter.com/Vyn9oWQIjR

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) August 18, 2025

Mercogliano said the W Sapphire “had just departed from the CSX Curtis Bay coal piers in Baltimore” and suggested “this may have been a coal explosion in the forward hold.”

Shipping expert John Konrad notes, “Coal can create methane and is subject to self-heating and liquefication. Bulkers can explode…” 

Sal has confirmed the explosion of a ship in Baltimore. This is a bulk carrier.

We don’t know the cargo but Baltimore is a major exporter of coal & Mauritius is a coal importer.

Coal can create methane and is subject to self-heating and liquefication. Bulkers can explode… 1/4 https://t.co/JQ0VAPlmwR

— John Ʌ Konrad V (@johnkonrad) August 19, 2025

Baltimore City Fire spokesperson John Marsh told local station WBAL-TV that the explosion occurred around 6:28 p.m. local time. No details were provided about the source of the blast.

*Developing… 

Having recently agreed on a China “revenue-share” deal with the Trump admin, the world’s leader in chatbot chip production, Nvidia, is developing a new AI chip especially for China based on its latest Blackwell architecture that will be more powerful than the H20 model it is currently allowed to sell there, Reuters reported citing sources. 

The new chip, tentatively known as the B30A, will use a single-die design that is likely to deliver half the raw computing power of the more sophisticated dual-die configuration in Nvidia’s flagship B300 accelerator card, the sources said.
A single-die design is when all the main parts of an integrated circuit are made on one continuous piece of silicon rather than split across multiple dies.

The new chip would have high-bandwidth memory and Nvidia’s NVLink technology for fast data transmission between processors, features that are also in the H20 – a chip based on the company’s older Hopper architecture. While the chip’s specifications are not completely finalized Nvidia hopes to deliver samples to Chinese clients for testing as early as next month.

Last week Trump opened the door to the possibility of more advanced Nvidia chips being sold in China. But the sources noted U.S. regulatory approval is far from guaranteed amid deep-seated fears in Washington about giving China too much access to U.S. artificial intelligence technology.

When reached by Reuters, Nvidia said in a statement: “We evaluate a variety of products for our roadmap, so that we can be prepared to compete to the extent that governments allow.”

“Everything we offer is with the full approval of the applicable authorities and designed solely for beneficial commercial use,” it said.

The extent to which China, which generated 13% of Nvidia’s revenue in the past financial year, can have access to cutting-edge AI chips is one of the biggest flashpoints in U.S.-Sino trade tensions. Nvidia only received permission in July to recommence sales of the H20. It was developed specifically for China after export restrictions were put in place in 2023, but company was abruptly ordered to stop sales in April.

Last week Trump said he might allow Nvidia to sell a scaled-down version of its next-generation chip in China after announcing an unprecedented deal that will see Nvidia and rival give the U.S. government 15% of revenue from sales of some advanced chips in China.

A new Nvidia chip for China might have “30% to 50% off”, he suggested in an apparent reference to the chip’s computing power, adding that the H20 was “obsolete”.

US legislators have worried that access to even scaled-down versions of flagship AI chips will impede U.S. efforts to maintain its lead in artificial intelligence. But Nvidia and others argue that it is important to retain Chinese interest in its chips – which work with Nvidia’s software tools – so that developers do not completely switch over to offerings from rivals like Huawei.

Huawei has made great strides in chip development, with its latest models said to be on par with Nvidia in some aspects like computing power, though analysts say it lags in key areas such as software ecosystem support and memory bandwidth capabilities. That said, last week China’s AI leader DeepSeek was forced to revert to Nvidia for its R2 model after Huawei’s AI chip failed. As the FT reported, after the successful launch of its R1 model in January, DeepSeek found itself under pressure from China to champion the national cause. The message was clear: use Huawei’s chips, not Nvidia’s. But when it came to actually training their new R2 model, DeepSeek ran into “persistent technical issues” with Huawei’s AI chips. The problems were so fundamental that the project ground to a halt. A person with knowledge of the situation said this was the main reason the model’s planned launch in May was scrapped, putting the company on the back foot in a market that waits for no-one.

Complicating Nvidia’s efforts to retain market share in China, Chinese state media have also in recent weeks alleged that the U.S firm’s chips could pose security risks, and authorities have cautioned Chinese tech firms about purchasing the H20. Nvidia says its chips carry no backdoor risks.

Nvidia is also preparing to start delivering a separate new China-specific chip based on its Blackwell architecture and designed primarily for AI inference tasks, according to two other people familiar with those plans. Reuters reported in May that this chip, currently dubbed the RTX6000D, will sell for less than the H20, reflecting weaker specifications and simpler manufacturing requirements.

The chip is designed to fall under thresholds set by the U.S. government. It uses conventional GDDR memory and features memory bandwidth of 1,398 gigabytes per second, just below the 1.4 terabyte threshold established by restrictions introduced in April that led to the initial H20 ban.  Nvidia is set to deliver small batches of RTX6000D to Chinese clients in September. 

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The UK government has agreed to drop its request that Apple provide it with backdoor access to user data, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said on Monday.

Gabbard stated on X that the agreement came after months of working with UK partners, alongside President Donald Trump, and Vice President JD Vance, to ensure Americans’ private data and civil liberties are protected

“As a result, the UK has agreed to drop its mandate for Apple to provide a ‘back door’ that would have enabled access to the protected encrypted data of American citizens and encroached on our civil liberties,” she said.

Earlier this year, reports emerged that the UK government had issued Apple a “technical capability notice,” requiring the company to provide access to encrypted user data under the Investigatory Powers Act of 2016. In response, Apple halted its Advanced Data Protection (ADP) feature for users in the UK, citing concerns over data breaches.

The iPhone maker stated in a Feb. 24 blog post that it has “never built a backdoor or master key to any of our products or services and we never will.”

The ADP feature provides end-to-end encryption for iCloud storage, preventing non-account holders—including governments and hackers—from accessing data such as photos, documents, and notes. Without ADP, certain types of iCloud data will no longer be fully encrypted, making it potentially accessible to third parties with the proper legal authority.

“Apple remains committed to offering our users the highest level of security for their personal data and we are hopeful that we will be able to do so in the future in the United Kingdom,” Apple stated at the time.

In May, U.S. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan and U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Brian Mast sent a letter to UK Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, urging her to allow Apple to disclose the order’s existence to the U.S. Department of Justice so the department can assess whether the order complies with a U.S.-UK bilateral agreement under the CLOUD Act, which prohibits orders requiring companies to decrypt data.

According to the letter, U.S. companies are prohibited under UK laws to disclose or confirm the existence of such an order, and doing so constitutes a criminal offense, even if the disclosure is made to the company’s home government.

The U.S. lawmakers warned that the UK’s order for Apple to create a backdoor could lead to some implications, as it might be exploited by cybercriminals and authoritarian regimes.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard speaks to reporters during a briefing at the White House in Washington on July 23, 2025. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

“These vulnerabilities would not only affect UK users but also American citizens and others worldwide, given the global nature of Apple’s services,” they stated in the letter.

The UK’s Home Office and Apple did not return requests for comment by publication time.

Authored by Daniel Idfresne , Micky Horstman via RealClearPolitics,

Zohran Mamdani attributes his Democratic nomination for New York City mayor to the confidence he has inspired in younger voters.

“I’ve been heartened in many of my conversations with older New Yorkers, who’ve told me they were introduced to the campaign by their son or their daughter,” Mamdani quipped. “I think it’s indicative of a new generation of leadership.”

His social media-savvy campaign promises to make NYC affordable and pursue social justice.

We get the appeal as Gen Zers – the generation who led Mamdani to triumph over Cuomo in the primary. We’re part of the most housing-burdened generation, and increasingly reliant on public transit.

But young voters shouldn’t be fooled by Mamdani’s vision. These lofty promises aren’t new. After all, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has battle-tested Mamdani’s proposed solutions to housing, crime, and public transit – and failed to deliver a safer, more affordable city.

In 2023, Johnson campaigned on building affordable housing and enacting rent stabilization laws. Yet, Chicago experienced the highest annual rent hike compared to other metro areas, at 5.9%. And what about Johnson’s promise to build affordable units? Chicago spent $300 million in government subsidies with only 500 new units to show for it.

After failing to pass his more progressive policies, Johnson recently adopted proven, free-market solutions to combat rising housing costs, such as eliminating parking requirements near public transportation stops and cutting government red tape.

Mamdani should be championing his pro-growth solutions, but instead his leading proposal is $100 billion in taxpayer funds to create 200,000 housing units over the next decade. New Yorkers should be skeptical: If Chicago couldn’t muster at least 500 units after burning $300 million in subsidies, why would NYC fare differently? 

Mamdani also proposes to freeze rent for rent-stabilized apartments. This tried-and-failed approach to affordability will lead to more vacancies, deteriorate housing quality, and create a spill-over demand in market-rate apartments.

Our Gen Z peers are now opting for Austin, Raleigh, and Baltimore for lower housing costs.

Mamdani’s vision to create a “Department of Community Safety” instead of empowering the NYPD isn’t “new leadership” either. Johnson enacted similar boutique police reforms during his tenure with dismal results.

The former teachers’ union lobbyist opted to override the City Council and terminate the Chicago police-approved ShotSpotter – a gunshot detection system – for more “holistic” solutions. He stripped police officers from schools to end the “school-to-prison pipeline” and eliminated over 2000 police positions.

The city leads America in homicides and mass shootings despite crime rates falling nationwide. Chicagoans have moved on from solving the “root problems” of crime, and now rank it as the preeminent issue facing the city. They voted out the progressive, “soft on crime” state’s attorney, and have expressed support for more police, not less.

New Yorkers agree with Chicagoans – they support more policing – but Mamdani’s proposed reforms are still rooted in these luxury beliefs. He argued that social workers, not the NYPD, should respond to domestic violence calls. He called for defunding the police in 2020. Mamdani may have walked back his rhetoric, but his $1.1 billion proposal rests on the same assumptions that guided Johnson’s failures.

If you thought the subway was overrun with crime and homelessness, just wait until New York State follows through with Mamdani’s plan to make buses fare-free.

Riders on the Chicago Transit Authority have seen dramatic scheduling delays since the pandemic, and homelessness, smoking, and crime dominate train cars. Ridership recovery lags behind other major cities. This decline has added up to a deficit of over $500 million. The NYC Metropolitan Transit Authority faces a similar crisis: a projected $900 million deficit.

Unlike us, Mamdani and Johnson aren’t transit users. They don’t rely on clean, well-managed trains to get to work. They get the privilege of casting societal failures on transit, when everyday riders just want to get home quickly and safely. Instead of relying on the state to bail out the struggling systems, riders in New York and Chicago would benefit from a thorough police presence that enforces fares and prevents anti-social behavior. Instead, Johnson and Mamdani’s solution is to put social workers on the trains.

Chicago’s rejection of Johnson’s progressive policies should have inspired a course correction. Instead, Johnson advised Mamdani to double down.

“What has happened historically, particularly for candidates like myself or even Mamdani, when we win, sometimes the movement doesn’t always show up after the win, right? So, we just have to stay committed as progressives to our values, and even when it gets bumpy a little bit, it doesn’t mean that we’re doing everything wrong.”

Young New Yorkers should pay attention. Like many of our peers, we want safe, affordable cities. But, Chicago’s experiment in progressive governance is already unraveling – and New Yorkers should think twice before importing the same failed blueprint.

Daniel Idfresne is a student at Syracuse University, a Young Voices writer, and a former intern for “The Story with Martha MacCallum.” Find him on Instagram and X.

Micky Horstman is the communications associate for the Illinois Policy Institute and a social mobility fellow for Young Voices. 

On the heels of homebuilder sentiment hitting COVID lockdown lows…

Source: Bloomberg

…US housing starts and permits data was mixed in July with Starts surging 5.2% MoM (far better than expected and following an upwardly revised 5.9% MoM jump in June). However, Building Permits disappointed, dropping 2.8% MoM (vs 0.5% MoM decline expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the fourth month in a row of declining building permits (the most forward-looking indicator for the US housing market), now at its lowest since the COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

The decline in Permits was dominated by multi-family units (down 9.9% MoM) while Housing Starts saw multi-family units jump 11.6% MoM in July (after surging 34.5% MoM in June)…

Source: Bloomberg

The number of multi-family unit starts is at the highest since June 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

But, and it’s a big but, there is a big housing problem: US home construction pipeline is hopelessly clogged up, with completions crashing to 3 year low as builders prefer to hold off completing current units rather than go to market now, as they expect even higher prices.  

Source: Bloomberg

Cartel behavior to limit supply? Or did the deportation of all those illegals leave the country without anyone who knows how to build a house?

The question we have for the new guy at the BLS is simple – if housing construction is crashing, why aren’t construction jobs?

Source: Bloomberg

It appears Renter Nation is back and home (buying) affordability remains at historically lows

Will lower Fed Fund rates do anything to lower mortgage rates? Or will the implied curve steepening further crush affordability? Dear Mr. Trump, be careful what you wish for.

Authored by Michael Talbott via BondVigilantes.com,

Tariff headlines are designed to provoke and grab attention, with striking percentages quoted that appear to signal President Trump’s latest stance, framing the narrative around which country stands to win, and which to lose.  

But the reality is far more nuanced than what a headline number suggests. Recently, we’ve seen that tariffs are driven not just by economic considerations, but increasingly by political motives

In this blog, I want to show why headline numbers can be misleading by highlighting the differences between two particular countries, Brazil and Vietnam, with both appearing to be on the opposite ends of the tariff spectrum. On paper, Brazil faces a 50% tariff on its exports to the US, while Vietnam faces just 20% after agreeing a trade deal with the US. By looking at headline numbers alone, you may be forgiven for concluding that Brazil’s economy is going to be worse hit than Vietnam’s, but once you dig into the finer details, and think about why these tariffs are in place, the conclusion is worlds apart.  

When Trump first rolled out tariffs on Liberation Day, the logic was simple, albeit slightly misguided: target countries with big trade surpluses with the US i.e. target countries that exports more than it imports from the US. Based on this approach, Brazil faced the minimum 10% due to the fact they run a trade deficit with the US, whilst Vietnam received a level of 44% reflecting their large trade surplus with the US. So far so good. But in today’s environment, a mere four months post Liberation Day, the story is very different. This reversal reflects the changing scope of the tariffs from an economic tool, to a political tool designed to shape sovereign issues overseas.

The table below provides some examples of how much tariff levels have changed between Liberation Day and now. We can see that Brazil and India stand out as having received increasing levels and we know that these have been politically driven. India for their continued purchase of Russian oil, and Brazil for reasons we will discuss a little later. For those that have seen decreases, the driver has been agreeing trade deals with the US administration.

Source: M&G, Bloomberg, as 12 August 2025. Stated tariff levels may vary across goods.

The more recent escalation for Brazil came after former president Jair Bolsonaro was indicted for allegedly plotting a coup d’état to overturn the 2022 election, which he lost to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Prosecutors accused Bolsonaro and his allies of planning to nullify the election results with the charges being accepted by Brazil’s Supreme Court in early 2025, and the US response was swift: tariffs as a political weapon to support one of his closest allies in Bolsonaro. This isn’t new territory for Trump. He has long seen tariffs as a tool for leverage, but the speed and severity of this move underscores how far trade policy has drifted.

However, despite the headline-grabbing 50% tariff, the economic impact on Brazil is relatively muted. The US is not a major trading partner for Brazil, accounting for less than 10% of Brazil’s total exports. In fact, Brazil is one of the more closed-off economies when looking at major emerging markets. Moreover, most of Brazil’s high-value exports to the US, such as energy products, aircraft, and industrial materials, are exempt from the steep tariff and remain at 10%. The 50% rate mainly hits agricultural goods like coffee and beef, which, while symbolic, represent a smaller share of Brazil’s overall trade portfolio. And so, in practice, the tariff is more political theatre than it is an economic headwind for Brazil. And for this reason, it may be very unlikely to expect Lula to yield.

Vietnam, on the other hand, is far more exposed. The US is Vietnam’s single largest export market, absorbing roughly 30% of its total exports, primarily in electronics, textiles, and furniture. Even after the recent trade deal that capped tariffs at 20% (down from a threatened 44%), the hit is significant because Vietnam’s economy is deeply dependent on US demand. Add to that the complexity of transshipment rules, which impose 40% tariffs on goods suspected of being Chinese-origin, and compliance costs rise sharply. For Vietnam, this isn’t just a headline; it’s a structural challenge that will weigh on the economy.

The vulnerability gap becomes even clearer when you look at trade balances. Since 2018, Vietnam’s surplus with the US has ballooned, a direct consequence of supply chains shifting during the US-China trade war in 2018-19. Brazil, by contrast, has maintained its steady deficit.

Source: M&G, Bloomberg, US Census as at  31 July 2025

And in the face of these varying vulnerabilities, what are the markets telling us? The cost of buying insurance on Vietnamese and Brazilian debt has fallen year-to-date, but more so for Brazil. During the same period the Brazilian real has strengthened against the dollar by c.14.5%, while the Vietnamese dong has weakened c.3%. Now, currencies and credit spreads are influenced by a whole host of factors, so it would be wrong to claim these moves are entirely a direct reflection of tariffs. But markets are a good barometer of stress, and if there were genuine fears about Brazil’s economy after the tariff hike, we could expect to see it in FX or credit pricing… but we don’t.

Source: M&G, Bloomberg, as 12 August 2025. Shaded area denotes Liberation Day announcement.

And so what we can conclude is that whilst tariffs may dominate headlines, they rarely capture the full picture.

Brazil and Vietnam offer an  example of how the surface-level numbers obscure the economic impact. As we’ve seen, Brazil’s steep tariff hike is more about political signalling than economic punishment, while Vietnam’s seemingly lighter burden carries far heavier consequences due to its structural reliance on US trade. It would also seem that markets appear to understand this nuance better than the headlines do.

As we’re finding in today’s politically charged environment, whereby US trade policy is increasingly moving away from economic basis, it’s not enough to track the numbers, we need to understand the fine print that will determine the overall impact. Only then can we separate the noise from the signal.

The Nikkei reported that Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) could approve the issuance of Japan’s first yen-denominated stablecoin as early as this fall, joining a global scramble to issue stablecoins denominated in one’s own currency (or linked to one’s stock, in the case of multiple publicly traded companies).

The report states that fintech company JPYC will register as a funds transfer service provider and begin selling its “JPYC” stablecoin within a few weeks. JPYC has been issuing a prepaid payment instrument called “Prepaid JPYC”, but has been preparing to issue and distribute “JPYC”, an electronic payment instrument exchangeable for Japanese yen, under the revised Payment Services Act, which came into effect in 2023.

The goal is to issue 1 trillion yen ($6.81 billion) of the JPYC stablecoin over three years. It has already drawn interest from multiple parties, including hedge funds that invest in cryptocurrencies and offices that manage the assets of wealthy individuals. Expected uses include carry trades, which aim to profit from interest rate differentials.

While attention has been focused mainly on USD stablecoins, the reported approval of a yen-based stablecoin could provide impetus to the digital currency ecosystem in Japan. In results briefings by fintech companies in Jul-Aug, some expressed expectations for domestic stablecoins. For the banking industry, Goldman sees potential for fee income from areas such as custodial services and collateral management. According to JPYC, its trust-type stablecoin is issued on the Progmat Coin platform of Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking.

The Nikkei article cites cross-border remittances, corporate payments, and asset management as potential applications.

However, challenges remain. One concern is the risk of fluctuation and a potential decoupling from the assumption that each stablecoin unit would trade at one yen. While stablecoins generally have lower volatility than cryptocurrencies, in legal tender one yen is always worth one yen.

Meanwhile, Goldman sees debate soon focusing on anti-money laundering measures, e.g., remittances to recipients not subject to KYC restrictions in the event that stablecoins were used/traded by unspecified parties to be redeemed for legal tender or circulated on a blockchain.

Via Remix News,

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said that the opposition’s protests have become so violent that it is “literally a matter of days before they start killing in the open streets.”

In response, he stated that the country’s leadership will make “surprising” decisions within a few days regarding tough actions against anti-government protesters after days of demonstrations that have turned violent.

“They’ve done everything else, all that’s left is for them to start killing. I’m not exaggerating, I’m saying it’s a matter of days for that to happen. It’s literally a matter of days for them to start killing in the open streets,” he stated.

The Serbian president also stated that “the violence is a sign of complete weakness” and promised to “punish the rioters.”

🇷🇸🚨 BREAKING: Massive anti-government protests in Belgrade tonight!

For several months now, Aleksandar Vučić’s regime has been refusing the protesters’ main demand – to call new elections. pic.twitter.com/9h43qOgQfe

— Global Dissident (@GlobalDiss) August 15, 2025

Vučić said his government will not back down against what he said was external pressure.

“We will resist external pressure and we will prevail,” he said.

According to the Serbian president, if there are no more decisive measures against the violence on the streets, the moment will come when someone will be killed.

Vučić called an emergency press conference for Sunday after more than nine months of anti-government protests in Belgrade, Novi Sad and Valjevo, sparked by the partial collapse of the Novi Sad railway station, which have turned increasingly violent in recent days. Protesters have clashed with members and supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and police, and have set fire to the SNS party office.

🇷🇸🚨 BREAKING: Clashes on the streets of Serbia! Offices of the ruling pro-EU party are on fire.

Protesters in Serbia are destroying the offices of President Aleksandar Vučić’s party. pic.twitter.com/zKmb6gtxdg

— Global Dissident (@GlobalDiss) August 16, 2025

The canopy of the Novi Sad railway station collapsed on Nov. 1 last year, killing 16 people. This sparked nationwide protests that continue to this day. 

The demands from protesters included finding and holding accountable those responsible for the accident, as well as the publication of documents related to the renovation of the train station. They are also demanding the release of students and teachers detained during the protests, and increasing the budget for higher education by 20 percent. The government says the demands have already been met, making further protests unjustified.

The competent authorities have charged 16 people with negligence and endangerment, and the Novi Sad High Prosecutor’s Office has launched an investigation into suspicions of possible corruption during the renovation.

The railway station building, which was opened in 1964, was renovated in several waves in 2021-2022, and work continued last year. Minister of Construction Goran Vesic announced last July that the renovation was complete and the entire building could be used again.

The minister has since resigned, but said he does not consider himself responsible for the tragedy. However, the mayor of Novi Sad and the prime minister have accepted responsibility. Milan Djuric and Milos Vucevic announced their resignations at the end of January. The new prime minister and government were elected by parliament on April 16.

Read more here…

An ancient Christian area inside the walled Jerusalem Old City is at the center of diplomatic tensions between Russia and Israel, and President Putin is now openly requesting that the Netanyahu government hand over owndership to Russia.

The Alexander Courtyard is a 1,300-square-meter located near the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in the Christian Quarter, and is currently front and center of the intense ownership dispute. In the packed and densely populated Old City, land of this size is huge and very significant, considering every little meter of property has been hotly fought over for many decades.

The site, also often called simply the Russian Compound, includes the Orthodox Church of St. Alexander Nevsky – named after a 13th-century Russian warrior-prince, and has been at the heart of a long-running legal and diplomatic conflict between Israel and Russia.

The matter was reportedly raised directly during recent discussions between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which led to the PM appointing a special committee of senior Israeli ministers in order to handle the sensitive matter

Officials throughout the drawn-out saga have pointed out that President Putin views the issue as deeply personal, not just political.

Ynet News has reviewed that the Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society (OPS) has maintained de facto control over the Alexander Courtyard since its establishment in 1890.

Historical Ottoman documents list it as belonging to “the glorious Russian Empire” – though the OPS had also made formal purchase of the property.

But the Russian government has used this Ottomoman historic reference to argue that the land should now fall under Russian state ownership rather than OPS.

The OPS is a scholarly and charitable organization and insists that it is the sole owner, with both sides are appealing to the Israeli government to uphold and recognize their respective rights and claims.

Putin’s invervention has continued going back at least a half-decade. Adding to the complexity of the legal matter, in 2020 Netanyahu designated the Alexander Courtyard a “holy site” under British Mandate-era law.

In Israeli law this gives the government greater ability to decide on the matter, but the pressure from Moscow has ramped up in the meantime.