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How Much Energy Does ChatGPT’s Newest Model Consume?

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How Much Energy Does ChatGPT’s Newest Model Consume?

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

  • The energy consumption of the newest version of ChatGPT is significantly higher than previous models, with estimates suggesting it could be up to 20 times more energy-intensive than the first version.

  • There is a severe lack of transparency regarding the energy use and environmental impact of AI models, as there are no mandates forcing AI companies to disclose this information.

  • The increasing energy demands of AI are contributing to rising electricity costs for consumers and raising concerns about the broader environmental impact of the tech industry.

How much energy does the newest version of ChatGPT consume? No one knows for sure, but one thing is certain – it’s a whole lot. OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, hasn’t released any official figures for the large language model’s energy footprints, but academics are working to quantify the energy use for query – and it’s considerably higher than for previous models. 

There are no mandates forcing AI companies to disclose their energy use or environmental impact, so most do not offer up those kinds of statistics publicly. As of May of this year, 84 percent of all large language model traffic was conducted on AI models with zero environmental disclosures. 

“It blows my mind that you can buy a car and know how many miles per gallon it consumes, yet we use all these AI tools every day and we have absolutely no efficiency metrics, emissions factors, nothing,” says Sasha Luccioni, climate lead at an AI company called Hugging Face.

“It’s not mandated, it’s not regulatory. Given where we are with the climate crisis, it should be top of the agenda for regulators everywhere,” she continued.

Sam Altman, the Chief Executive Officer of OpenAI, has thrown out some figures into the public sphere – saying that ChatGPT consumes 0.34 watt-hours of energy and 0.000085 gallons of water per query – but has left out key details like what model these numbers refer to, and has offered no backup or corroboration for his statements. 

Experts from outside the OpenAI fold have estimated that ChatGPT-5 may use as much as 20 times more energy as the first version of ChatGPT, and at the very least uses several times more.

“A more complex model like GPT-5 consumes more power both during training and during inference. It’s also targeted at long thinking … I can safely say that it’s going to consume a lot more power than GPT-4,” Rakesh Kumar, a professor at the University of Illinois, recently told The Guardian. Kumar’s current work focuses on AI’s energy consumption. 

While a query to ChatGPT in 2023 would have consumed about 2 watt-hours, researchers at the University of Rhode Island’s AI lab found that ChatGPT-5 can use up to 40 watt-hours of electricity to configure a medium-length response (around 1,000 tokens).

On average, they estimate that the model uses slightly over 18 watt-hours for such a response.

This places ChatGPT-5 at a higher energy consumption rate than any other of the AI models they track save for two: OpenAI’s o3 reasoning model and Deepseek’s R1.

Calculating these estimated energy consumption rates was no easy feat, considering the severe lack of transparency in the sector, in spite of increasing scrutiny.

“It’s more critical than ever to address AI’s true environmental cost,” University of Rhode Island professor Marwan Abdelatti told The Guardian.

“We call on OpenAI and other developers to use this moment to commit to full transparency by publicly disclosing GPT-5’s environmental impact.”

While tech companies consume more and more energy each year to power their AI ambitions, common consumers are suffering the consequences. It’s consumers who are footing the bill for skyrocketing energy usage. The New York Times warns that “electricity rates for individuals and small businesses could rise sharply as Amazon, Google, Microsoft and other technology companies build data centers and expand into the energy business.”

“We are witnessing a massive transfer of wealth from residential utility customers to large corporations—data centers and large utilities and their corporate parents, which profit from building additional energy infrastructure,” Maryland People’s Counsel David Lapp recently told Business Insider.

“Utility regulation is failing to protect residential customers, contributing to an energy affordability crisis.”

Moreover, Silicon Valley’s backtracking on climate pledges will directly impact global communities, whether or not they ever use AI.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 20:55

Explosion Rocks Cargo Ship Departing Baltimore Harbor

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Explosion Rocks Cargo Ship Departing Baltimore Harbor

An explosion has been reported on a cargo ship traveling through the outbound shipping lane of Baltimore’s Inner Harbor near the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge.

According to shipping expert Sal Mercogliano, the cargo ship MV W Sapphire “suffered an explosion in its forward hold” and was “fully loaded” at the time of the incident.

Mercogliano said the W Sapphire “had just departed from the CSX Curtis Bay coal piers in Baltimore” and suggested “this may have been a coal explosion in the forward hold.”

Shipping expert John Konrad notes, “Coal can create methane and is subject to self-heating and liquefication. Bulkers can explode…” 

Baltimore City Fire spokesperson John Marsh told local station WBAL-TV that the explosion occurred around 6:28 p.m. local time. No details were provided about the source of the blast.

*Developing… 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 20:37

Restoring Law & Order In Crime-Ridden Cities May Be Key To Resolving Affordability Crisis

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Restoring Law & Order In Crime-Ridden Cities May Be Key To Resolving Affordability Crisis

President Trump ordered “emergency price relief” for Americans on housing costs in an executive order earlier this year to address the housing affordability crisis. 

“Many Americans are unable to purchase homes due to historically high prices, in part due to regulatory requirements that alone account for 25 percent of the cost of constructing a new home, according to recent analysis,” an executive action signed by President Trump in January read. 

But what if the administration had another option?

One far quicker than reducing regulatory requirements to expand housing stock, which could take months if not years… What if the fastest solution wasn’t simply deporting millions of criminal illegal aliens, but restoring law and order in major cities run by far-left politicians who push disastrous woke policies that only backfired and resulted in continued violent crime waves over the last decade?   

“The fastest way to lower average housing prices in American cities is to enforce the law/reduce criminal activity.  Huge chunks of high-density housing are trapped in Bad Neighborhoods, no-go zones depressed well below nearby prices.  Nobody with options even considers them,” Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey wrote on X. 

Take Baltimore City, Maryland, as a prime example: the metro area just north of Washington, D.C., has more than 14,000 vacant homes, many of them located in neighborhoods plagued by violent crime and controlled by far-left radicals of the Democratic Party for over 50 years.

These areas resemble war zones, left in ruins by toxic progressive policies and decades of de-industrialization

Let’s assume Palmer is correct. If the crime-ridden neighborhoods of Baltimore, the same ones made infamous by HBO’s The Wire, could finally see law and order restored, families and communities would naturally begin to rebuild. Until then, decades of failed Democratic policies have allowed inner cities to rot into war zones, disenfranchising working-class residents most of all. Restoring law and order in America’s metro areas will be key to unlocking vacant homes and expanding the housing stock.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 20:30

Beijing Lab Builds Pocket-Sized Air And Missile Defense Powerhouse

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Beijing Lab Builds Pocket-Sized Air And Missile Defense Powerhouse

In Beijing, defence scientists have built a miniaturised travelling-wave tube (TWT) – a device about the size of a pistol that can amplify microwave pulses between 8 and 18 gigahertz at more than 500 watts, according to the South China Morning Post.

Once bulky and difficult to integrate into aircraft, satellites and stealth systems, this downsized TWT is now powering China’s latest radar and electronic warfare platforms.

“With technological advancements, domestically produced miniaturised travelling-wave tubes have seen significant improvements in bandwidth, power output, and efficiency,” wrote lead scientist Shi Xuechun of the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation.

Shi noted that when combined with broadband phased array antennas, the tubes “greatly enhance the detection range and accuracy of air defense and missile defense radar systems, while also boosting the jamming effectiveness and operational reach of multi-beam electronic warfare systems.”

SCMP writes that Shi’s team reduced the TWT’s height to just 20mm — less than half that of Western models — by redesigning the magnetic focusing system, compressing the electron gun, and preventing vacuum arcing through precision engineering.

They also replaced aluminium with beryllium oxide ceramic in the collector, which absorbs heat. “The heat transfer efficiency increases nine to 10 times,” the researchers said.

The result is a tube measuring only 185 by 30 by 20mm, with over 549 watts of output power and efficiency above 97 percent. Packaged into a microwave power module, the entire unit is about the size of an iPad.

Chinese engineers describe this progress as the cumulative effect of many small refinements. “It is like drops filling a reservoir, these changes accumulate,” said a Beijing-based defence tech expert. “By filling one cup at a time, eventually it will be full.”

At this year’s World Radar Expo, China displayed more than 100 advanced systems, from airborne and naval radars to quantum and cognitive warfare platforms. Reports suggest Chinese-supplied radars also played a role in a recent India-Pakistan conflict, helping J-10 fighters down Indian Rafale jets before they could respond.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 18:50

Trump Says Putin, Zelensky To Soon Meet, ‘Everyone Very Happy’ About Chances For Peace

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Trump Says Putin, Zelensky To Soon Meet, ‘Everyone Very Happy’ About Chances For Peace

Update1835ET: President Trump has issued a major statement following the high stakes afternoon meetings with Ukraine’s Zelensky, who finally put on a suit this time, and seven EU leaders.

Trump announced that he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone and initiated plans for a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. There is further after that a trilateral meeting coming, at an as yet undisclosed time and place. He called the development “very good” and said “everyone is very happy about the possibility of PEACE”. So far, Russian state media has reacted only vaguely with the following via TASS:

US President Donald Trump interrupted his talks with Vladimir Zelensky and European leaders to call Russian President Vladimir Putin, Germany’s Bild newspaper reports, citing its Deputy Editor-in-Chief Paul Ronzheimer.

According to Bild, the White House consultations are expected to continue after the call.

TASS futher noted that “Trump said on Monday that making a peace agreement did not require a ceasefire for Ukraine because hostilities could not prevent the parties from working on a deal.”

Trump seems to be presenting this as a breakthrough, but much will be determined in the coming hours and days based on the Kremlin’s interpretation of all of this.

Earlier, some visible tensions in the room…

* * *

Update(1545ET): A big talking point from today has been security guarantees – with European leaders and the US appearing to be on the same page so far, and of course Zelensky is welcoming this as well. 

As a reminder, the Kremlin has said over and over again that it would never accept Western troops enforcing anything inside Ukraine…

Update(1320ET): President Trump clearly appreciated that Zelensky actually showed up at the White House in a suit, in all black, after the Ukrainian delegation pulled up and quickly was welcomed into the White House.

Here’s how RT presented one somewhat wild exchange during the opening press Q&A inside the Oval Office:

Reporter: Are you open to holding elections in your country?

Zelensky: Of course… *then lists every reason not to hold one*

Trump: So if we’re at war 3.5 years from now — no more elections? Room bursts into laughter

Clearly Zelensky didn’t want to risk offending Trump before the high-stakes meeting – which also involves seven EU leaders – before it even started.

* * *

Ukraine’s President Zelensky has arrived in Washington with an entourage of European leaders sizeable enough that one wonders where they will all fit within the Oval Office for the highly anticipated meeting with President Trump to talk Ukraine peace, after Friday’s big – and controversial – Putin summit in Alaska.

No less than seven EU leaders are traveling to be there, including French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

“We all share a strong desire to end this war quickly and reliably. And peace must be lasting,” Zelensky stated while en route to Washington. “I am confident that we will defend Ukraine, effectively guarantee security, and that our people will always be grateful to President Trump, everyone in America, and every partner and ally for their support and invaluable assistance. Russia must end this war, which it itself started.”

The European leaders will no doubt show up wearing the appropriate attire, but will Zelensky be in a suit this time? The White House has actually requested it. “The White House asked Ukrainian officials if President Volodymyr Zelensky will wear a suit to his meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office on Monday, two sources with direct knowledge tell Axios,” Axios reports. If he doesn’t this could possibly create subtle tensions from the beginning, and we know that the last Oval meeting involving Zelensky didn’t go so well.

The Institute for the Study of War

The hightly ‘constructive’ and positive meeting in Alaska resulted in Putin suggesting a tentative agreement had been reached after meeting with the US president, while Trump downplayed the outcome by reminding, “There’s no deal until there’s a deal.” In a subsequent interview, Trump noted that any agreement would require Ukraine’s approval and said he would advise the Zelensky government to consider making a deal – and no doubt this caused the Europeans a sigh of relief.

Currently there remain mixed messages coming from within the Trump administration about how much progress is being made, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicating that a ceasefire is still on the table – and that compromises will have to be made by both sides, including on the area of territory.

Bloomberg in fresh analysis has pointed out that jumping straight into peace negotiations could benefit Putin by giving him time to improve his position on the battlefield and the ability to shift the blame to Zelensky if talks fall through. Sanctions would also be delayed, and the chances of new sanctions currently appear low. Zelensky and European leaders are expected to push back against this possibility – which would leave Putin in the driver’s seat with little consequences – in their discussions with Trump.

Below are some likely outcome scenarios and fresh analysis via Bloomberg:

  • Zelenkiy’s key aims are securing a lasting ceasefire, NATO-like security guarantees, and sustained sanctions on Russia if Moscow rejects peace terms. He will also insist on participation in all talks, stressing that decisions about Ukraine’s future require Ukrainian input.

  • Ukraine has signaled some flexibility on de facto control along current frontlines, but refuses to formally cede territory, including Crimea, seeing this as unconstitutional and a prelude to further Russian aggression. Kyiv also rejects any limits on its military or European Union aspirations, as well as Russian demands on domestic issues such as language rights.

  • Ukraine is likely to reject any Russian proposal to withdraw from the fortified 25% of Donetsk it controls in exchange for Russia leaving small pockets in Kharkiv and Sumy. Kyiv sees Donetsk as vital to its defense and a barrier to further offensives, while Russia’s presence in Kharkiv and Sumy carries little strategic value, making such a deal unattractive.

  • Zelenskiy also remains wary of deals without enforceable security guarantees, given Moscow’s record of treaty violations. Ukraine’s strategy is to resist pressure for unfavorable terms while preserving unity with European allies.

  • Meanwhile, European leaders will seek to ensure Kyiv’s interests are fully reflected in any settlement. They will also likely press Washington to support a credible, European-led framework to deter Russia from future offensives, while urging Trump that economic pressure on Moscow must intensify unless Putin shows genuine readiness to end the war.

Bloomberg Trump-Zelensky meeting matrix on each side’s desired outcomes:

“The bottom line is that a swift peace deal remains unlikely, given the gulf between Kyiv and Moscow,” concludes Bloomberg. “The challenge for Zelenskiy and European leaders is to accommodate Trump’s push for a quick win, while avoiding a settlement deeply unfavorable to Ukraine and Europe’s security.”

Delegations are expected arrive around midday, and several hours of meetings will follow. The schedule:

  • Noon (16:00 GMT): European leaders arrive at the White House.
  • 1pm (17:00 GMT): Zelenskyy arrives at the White House.
  • 1:15pm (17:15 GMT): Meeting held between Trump and Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.
  • 2:15pm (18:15 GMT): Trump greets the European leaders in the State Dining Room.
  • 2:30pm (18:30 GMT): A “family photo” taken in Cross Hall.
  • 3pm (19:00 GMT): A multilateral meeting held in the East Room.

* * *

Below are more details and headline news stories related to Ukraine and Russia, and what to watch out for today, via Newsquawk:

MONDAY

  • White House said US President Trump will greet Ukrainian President Zelensky at 13:00EDT/18:00BST on Monday and will participate in a bilateral meeting with Zelensky at 13:15EDT/18:15BST, while European leaders will arrive at the White House on Monday at 12:00EDT/17:00BST and President Trump will greet European leaders at 14:15EDT/19:15BST with a multilateral meeting to take place at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.

  • “European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today 1) pin down more details on poss US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the poss trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps”, via Eurasia.

  • Click here for the Newsquawk multilateral meeting.

US

  • US President Trump said they made great progress in the meeting with Russian President Putin which he said was “a 10” and there are just a few points left to agree upon and a few things left to resolve, but added there is no deal until there is a deal and there are one or two significant items left to agree on and it is ultimately up to NATO and Ukraine to agree. Trump said they negotiated on NATO, security and land, while he also stated that he could meet Putin again soon and could see a Moscow meeting possibly happening, as well as noted that Putin wants to see an end to the killing like he does.

  • US President Trump commented on Truth Social that it was a great and very successful day in Alaska and that the meeting with Russian President Putin went very well, as did a late-night phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Trump added it was determined by all that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is to go directly to a peace agreement and not a mere ceasefire agreement which often does not hold. Furthermore, he said Zelensky will visit the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, and if all works out, they will then schedule a meeting with Putin.

  • US President Trump posted “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”

  • US Special Envoy Witkoff said US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed at their summit that the US would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.

  • US Secretary of State Rubio said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to get a peace deal and there were things discussed in the Trump-Putin meeting that have potential for breakthroughs to end the war. Rubio suggested that to end the war, there are things Russia and Ukraine want but cannot get and it may not be possible for the US to create a scenario to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, he said security guarantees will be discussed in Monday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and others, while Rubio added that he is not saying they are on the verge of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but they saw enough movement to justify a follow-up meeting with Zelensky.

  • US President Trump said in a pre-recorded interview with Fox that if they have to do sanctions, they will do it and the next meeting will have both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.

UKRAINE

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for constructive cooperation and will travel to Washington D.C. on Monday, while he added that Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace and the call with US President Trump and Europeans discussed positive signals and lasted for more than 90 minutes. Furthermore, he said Ukraine supports President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he emphasised to Trump that pressure on Russia should be stepped up and noted that security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term.

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky announced he arrived in the US and is grateful to President Trump for the invitation, while he added that they all equally want to end this war swiftly and securely, as well as hopes their shared strength with America and European friends will compel Russia to real peace.

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces saw a success for a second day in a row repelling a Russian assault near Dobropillya and Russia might step up frontline attacks in the coming days. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s military said its forces advanced up to two kilometres on the Sumy front.

RUSSIA

  • Russian President Putin said he is sincerely interested in ending the conflict, but all ‘root causes’ must be eliminated and all Russia’s concerns must be taken into account. Putin said negotiations were productive and useful. Putin said the personal meeting has been overdue and was necessary to rectify the situation, while he hopes that a mutual understanding will bring peace to Ukraine and he agrees with US President Trump on the need for Ukraine’s security. Furthermore, he said the agreements should be a starting point and that a Russia-US Investment partnership has huge potential. It was also reported that Putin told Trump that if Ukraine fully withdraws from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia would freeze the front line in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It was also reported that the Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.

  • Senior Russian diplomat said Russia agrees any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but Moscow also needs guarantees, while the official said the West has not been thinking about security guarantees for Russia, and this needs to be corrected with Moscow ready to assist.

  • Russia said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 300 Ukrainian drones, while it announced it hit a storage site for Ukrainian Sapsan operational-tactical missiles, according to IFAX. It was also reported that Russia’s FSB security service said it prevented a Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensky nuclear power plant.

EUROPE

  • European leaders have been invited to join US President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Monday and it was reported that UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian PM Meloni, Finland’s President Stubb, European Commission President von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Rutte will join the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.

  • European leaders issued a joint statement on the Trump-Putin summit in which they stated that they welcome US President Trump’s efforts and support for providing security guarantees, while they added that Russia cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.

  • EU Council President Costa said transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine and if no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and the US must increase pressure on Russia, while he added that Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its conditions for peace must be respected.

  • EU Commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s allies held a positive exchange ahead of Monday’s meeting with US President Trump and the video conference focused on key matters such as the need to stop the killing in Ukraine and the commitment to maintain full pressure on Russia via sanctions.

  • German Chancellor Merz said the US is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine, while he added they would have liked there to have been an agreement on a ceasefire and stated there are no territorial negotiations on Ukraine that are going over the heads of the Europeans. It was separately reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister said any Ukraine peace agreement requires security guarantees for Ukraine, and that Europe is ready to provide them together with the US.

  • French President Macron said the situation ahead of talks in Washington is extremely serious for Ukraine and Europe, while he added they want Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected and want a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine. Macron said their goal for talks on Monday is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies, as well as warned that if they show weakness today in front of Russia, they are laying the ground for future conflicts. Furthermore, Macron said he thinks the answer is no to the question of whether he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace.

  • Statement from the Nordic Baltic eight leaders noted that they will continue to arm Ukraine and enhance Europe’s defences to deter further Russian aggression, while they will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy.

* * *

And below is John Mearsheimer on the aftermath of the Alaska Summit:

The desired next step for Trump is to see Presidents Putin and Zelensky in the same room, to settle on a final deal to end the war in Ukraine, and reports have suggested Trump wants to make this happen as soon as Friday, but what happens Monday could be a large determining factor.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 18:35

Are You Drowning Too?: Vegetables Are Up 38.9%, Coffee Up 25%, And Electricity Prices Are Rising Twice As Fast As Inflation

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Are You Drowning Too?: Vegetables Are Up 38.9%, Coffee Up 25%, And Electricity Prices Are Rising Twice As Fast As Inflation

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Do you feel knots in your stomach due to financial stress? If so, you certainly have lots of company. All of a sudden, everyone is talking about the cost of living and prices are rising by double-digit percentages all around us. There are so many people out there right now that feel like they are “drowning” because no matter how hard they try there simply isn’t enough money for everything. Unfortunately, we are being warned to brace ourselves for even more inflation in the months ahead.

When I heard that the cost of vegetables in the United States had gone up by 40 percent in one month, I thought that there was no way that it could be true.

So I looked it up, and I discovered that the cost of vegetables in the United States didn’t go up by 40 percent in one month.

The real figure was 38.9 percent…

A 38.9% increase in prices for fresh and dry vegetables from June to July was the major driver of a higher index for “final demand goods” (things that are done and ready to be sold to a consumer, as opposed to things that go into a later production process).

That is nuts!

How can the cost of vegetables go up by 38.9 percent in a single month?

Apparently this was the largest spike that we have ever witnessed in a summer month “in figures that go back to 1947”…

Per Bureau of Labor Statistics data, it’s also the largest monthly increase ever recorded in a summer month (June-August), in figures that go back to 1947.

The other day, I wrote about how beef has become so expensive that it is now considered to be a “luxury”.

Well, now vegetables are a “luxury” too.

And let’s not forget coffee.

The price of coffee went up by 25 percent in just three months, and that was before coffee exports from Brazil were hit with a 50 percent tariff…

Coffee prices were already up before a 50 percent tariff on Brazil, the top coffee importer to the U.S., went into effect last week.
Coffee prices sharply rose 25 percent over the past three months, according to inflation data released Tuesday. Reuters reported Tuesday that Brazilian coffee exports have started seeing postponements to their U.S. shipments.

About two-thirds of all U.S. adults drink coffee.

This is one of the most basic things that Americans buy.

But now a lot of people are either going to have to cut back or stop drinking it entirely because it has become so ridiculously expensive.

Air conditioning is rapidly becoming a “luxury” as well.

Electricity prices have been rising twice as fast as the overall rate of inflation, and some seniors must now choose between paying the electricity bill and paying for medication…

Across the country, electricity prices have jumped more than twice as fast as the overall cost of living in the last year. That’s especially painful during the dog days of summer, when air conditioners are working overtime.

In Pembroke Pines, Fla., Al Salvi’s power bill can reach $500 a month.

“There’s a lot of seniors down here that are living check to check. They can barely afford prescriptions such as myself,” says Salvi, who’s 63 and uses a wheelchair. “Now we got to decide whether we’re going to pay the electric bill or are we going to buy medication. And it’s not fair to us. You’re squeezing us between a rock and a hard place.”

As our leaders were borrowing trillions upon trillions of dollars that we did not have, I warned that this was going to cause rampant inflation, but a lot of people out there didn’t want to listen.

And as the Federal Reserve was pumping trillions upon trillions of dollars that they created out of thin air into the financial system, I warned that this was going to cause rampant inflation, but a lot of people out there didn’t want to listen.

At first it seemed like our leaders were totally getting away with it.

But now look at what has happened.

There are countless videos on TikTok right now of people breaking down emotionally over the rising cost of living.

In one video, a woman that feels like she is “drowning” explains that no matter how hard she works “she can’t afford to live anymore”…

The video made by “diannaallen5” for TikTok was shared on X by @WallStreetApes to their 1 million X followers, writing, “Americans are breaking down, a grown woman crying because she can’t afford to live anymore.”

The woman in the video, who said she is from Illinois, was distraught and in tears as she spoke, saying that “gas prices and the electric bills and the prices of food is just so overwhelming.”

“I’m wondering if anybody else is feeling like they’re drowning and they can’t get out,” she said. “I work overtime, and I cannot get above water. I mean, I literally have no gas for next week.”

“I’m just wondering if anybody else feels like they’re drowning,” she said is despair.

Can you identify with her?

I think that a lot of us can.

At this stage, 83 percent of all Americans are experiencing “stressflation”…

A LifeStance Health survey released today reveals “stressflation” is affecting most Americans, with 83% reporting financial stress driven by inflation, mass layoffs, the rising cost of living and recession fears. Millennials and Gen Z report the most significant mental health impacts.

The number of respondents who have been deterred from seeking mental health care due to financial constraints remains consistently high (60%), increasing two percentage points from 2024. Those experiencing high financial stress levels are more than twice as likely to forgo mental health treatment due to cost, highlighting a mental health gap where financial strain exacerbates mental health challenges while limiting access to care.

We should have seen this coming way in advance, because we were specifically warned that this was coming.

And if we stay on the same road that we have been traveling, conditions will get a whole lot worse.

A lot of people out there don’t seem to understand that consequences do not always show up immediately.

What we are experiencing now is the result of decades of bad decisions.

It took time for the consequences of those bad decisions to materialize, but now they have officially started to arrive.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 18:25

Senior Israeli Official Arrested In Vegas Pedophile Sting Is Released – And Flies Home

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Senior Israeli Official Arrested In Vegas Pedophile Sting Is Released – And Flies Home

It looks like America’s “special relationship” with Israel may have paid off big for an alleged pedophile: A senior official in Israel’s cybersecurity agency was arrested in Las Vegas for allegedly attempting to use the internet to lure a child into sexual abuse, only to be released on bond and somehow allowed to go back to Israel. There’s no indication he was covered by diplomatic immunity. 

Tom Alexandrovich, who helps guide his country’s cybersecurity policy, was representing Israel at Black Hat USA, a professional conference in Las Vegas, when he was one of seven people swept up in a major, multi-agency sting operation earlier this month that targeted people seeking sex acts with minors. According to court records, on Aug 6, the 38-year-old Alexandrovich allegedly committed the felony offense of using computer technology in an attempt to lure a child into sexual abuse. That particular crime encompasses children under 16. The next day, he posted a $10,000 bond at the Henderson Detention Center. 

Tom Alexandrovich allegedly sought to sexually abuse a Nevada child while he was in Las Vegas for a cybersecurity conference

As the news broke, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reflexively denied Alexandrovich had done anything wrong, claiming that “the employee, who does not hold a diplomatic visa, was not arrested and returned to Israel as scheduled.” Subsequently confronted with court records, Israel’s Cyber Directorate said the earlier false statement “was accurate based on the information provided to us,” and that Alexandrovich is now on leave “by mutual decision.” 

It’s not clear why or how he was allowed to return to Israel, which has a reputation as a haven for pedophiles who prey on American children. Citing a Jewish watchdog group, a 2020 CBS News report found that, in just the previous six years, more than 60 Jewish Americans who’d been accused of pedophilia had fled to Israel, taking advantage of Israel’s “Right of Return” law that lets any Jew in the world enjoy instant citizenship. Though these individuals — who include both suspects and convicts — are technically subject to extradition to the United States, Israeli police have been accused of assigning low priority to these cases and — perhaps because of that — US agencies are accused of failing to aggressively pursue extradition.

The Jerusalem Post describes Alexandrovich (center) as a “senior official”

Speaking of US disinterest, while major Israeli media outlets have covered the Alexandrovich story, the arrest of a senior Israeli government official on a child-sex-crime charge and his subsequent flight to Israel has received no coverage whatsoever from major US media at the time this story is being written — which is well more than day after the story broke. 

Alexandrovich’s duties involved the development of Israel’s “Cyber Dome” program, which aims to protect civilians from harm inflicted via computers. In a similarly ironic vein, one of the other men caught in the sting was Neal Harrison Creecy, a 46-year-old Vegas church pastor at Las Vegas Redemption Church, who promptly resigned after posting bail. He has reportedly confessed his sins to earthly authorities.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 18:00

Are You Ready For A Humanoid Robot To Assist In Household Chores?

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Are You Ready For A Humanoid Robot To Assist In Household Chores?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Color me quite unimpressed with the current capabilities. Let’s investigate.

The Coming Robot Home Invasion

In what appears to me to be far more hype than reality, the Wall Street Journal discusses The Coming Robot Home Invasion.

Robots are hot. Humanoid ones were literally running amok at this month’s World Robot Conference in Beijing. Think of robots as artificial intelligence in motion. Maybe you’ve seen Elon Musk’s new Tesla humanoid robot Optimus bust a move in a YouTube dance video. A tad creepy. All I really want is for robots to fold my laundry like Rosey the Robot from “The Jetsons.” Or to watch my kids, shouting “Danger, Will Robinson!” when they’re lost in space.

It’s starting. I recently met with Weave Robotics’ founders, Evan Wineland and Kaan Dogrusoz, friends from Carnegie Mellon and Apple. They showed me live demonstrations of Isaac, their home robot likely priced at more than $10,000, to ship by year’s end. I watched it autonomously fold T-shirts and pick up cups and toys. It’s mesmerizing. Isaac triggered visions of future homes, much as “labor-saving devices” like dishwashers and washing machines changed 1950s home life.

The Cost Reality

“Isaac” is a home robot developed by Weave Robotics, a startup founded by former Apple engineers. While originally hinted to be priced at over $10,000, it’s now available for a refundable $1,000 reservation fee. The full purchase price is $59,000, or a payment plan of $1,385 per month for 48 months. Isaac is slated to begin shipping to its first 30 US customers in the fall of 2025

The Performance Reality

Seriously, “what a joke” is my reaction.

The above video is an infomercial and not a good one. It shows no clips of folding clothes or other household chores the bot can allegedly do. It repeats images of the bot picking up toys on the floor, a roughly 1-minute task.

Watch how clumsy the ironing is in this alternate robot.

Advanced Humanoid Robots

Also consider advanced humanoid robots at 2025 World Robot Conference in Beijing.

https://youtu.be/51VI8DZGGag

China’s Startups Race to Dominate the Coming AI Robot Boom

Bloomberg reports China’s Startups Race to Dominate the Coming AI Robot Boom

That’s a free link.

The country’s startups have caught the attention of Elon Musk, whose Tesla Inc. has set its sights on the humanoid market. On an April conference call, the billionaire said he thinks his Optimus robots lead the industry in performance, but China may end up dominating the field. “I’m a little concerned that on the leaderboard, ranks 2 through 10 will be Chinese companies,” he said.

Leadership in this field matters because humanoids appear poised to move beyond the realms of sci-fi and curiosity. Citigroup Inc. recently projected the market for the machines and related services will surge to $7 trillion by 2050 when the world could be populated by 648 million human-like bots.

Some scholars warn that Beijing’s approach may give China the edge in developing strategically important, capital-intensive sectors, like it has already done with electric vehicles and solar panels.

While it’s still possible the humanoid market never takes off, China is making an audacious bet that it will. The country is on track to produce more than 10,000 humanoid robots this year, or more than half of the machines globally, according to an April study from the China think tank Leaderobot and other institutions.

“China is winning the humanoids war, I have no doubt,” said Henrik I. Christensen, director of the Contextual Robotics Institute at the University of California San Diego.

Still, even the most elegant humanoids won’t have a future unless they provide value. People-like machines captured the popular imagination at least as far back as Isaac Asimov’s writings in the 1950s, yet they’ve remained largely a novelty. Boston Dynamics has impressed tech geeks since its founding in 1992, but it’s never built much of a business. Google and SoftBank Group Corp. each bought the startup and then sold it again without commercial success; it’s now owned by Hyundai Motor Co.

China’s robot was far more impressive than “Isaac” or anything from Tesla. Click on the link to see.

Musk eluded he will be number one. I would be shocked if that happened.

Anyone laying out $58,000 for “Isaac” is someone interested in the latest gadgets at any price.

I suppose this robot home invasion is coming, eventually. But price needs to drop by 90 percent and capabilities rise by 500 percent before there’s a hint of prime time for household tasks.

Industrial robots trained for one specific task are another matter. They are already here.

I side with Romain Moulin, CEO of the French startup Exotec, which makes box-like robots for warehouses that he thinks are more utilitarian.

Humanoids “just don’t make economic sense for most people and companies for the foreseeable future,” said Moulin.

But they do capture the imagination (and dreams of no more household chores) including the futurists at the Wall Street Journal.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 17:40

Trump Vs Biden: ICE Detentions By Administration (2019-2025)

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Trump Vs Biden: ICE Detentions By Administration (2019-2025)

Since January 2023, the number of people held in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention has more than doubled.

This increase has accelerated notably during the early months of Donald Trump’s second term, compared to the final stretch of Joe Biden’s presidency.

As Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti shows in the chart below, the data behind this trend offers a revealing look at how immigration enforcement priorities and political leadership can rapidly reshape the size and scope of ICE’s detainee population.

The figures for this analysis come from TRAC Reports, a long-running research project tracking U.S. immigration enforcement metrics. The data reflects weekly totals of ICE detainees, categorized by criminal background or immigration status.

ICE Detentions Have Surged in 2025

On January 1, 2023, there were just over 20,500 people in ICE custody. By June 15, 2025, that number had jumped to over 56,000—a 175% increase. This steep rise coincides with Trump’s return to office and his campaign promises to crack down on illegal immigration.

Date Convicted Criminal Pending Criminal Charges Other Violations Total
06/15/2025 15,964 14,263 26,170 56,397
06/01/2025 15,193 13,671 22,438 51,302
05/18/2025 14,909 12,920 21,041 48,870
05/04/2025 15,025 12,730 21,250 49,005
04/20/2025 15,190 11,997 21,997 49,184
04/06/2025 14,614 11,065 22,249 47,928
03/23/2025 14,369 10,509 23,014 47,892
03/09/2025 13,751 9,437 23,081 46,269
02/23/2025 12,804 8,158 22,797 43,759
02/09/2025 11,917 6,714 22,538 41,169
01/26/2025 10,703 5,429 23,106 39,238
01/12/2025 10,494 5,360 23,849 39,703
12/29/2024 10,278 5,271 23,603 39,152
12/15/2024 10,355 5,204 22,847 38,406
12/01/2024 10,283 5,084 23,361 38,728
11/03/2024 10,308 4,967 23,588 38,863
09/08/2024 10,050 4,874 22,471 37,395
08/25/2024 10,078 4,818 21,327 36,223
08/11/2024 10,142 4,752 21,432 36,326
07/14/2024 10,380 4,605 22,019 37,004
06/30/2024 10,053 4,459 22,997 37,509
06/16/2024 10,158 4,452 23,915 38,525
06/02/2024 9,803 4,311 23,246 37,360
05/19/2024 9,748 4,303 22,520 36,571
05/05/2024 9,882 4,146 22,575 36,603
04/21/2024 9,560 3,961 20,852 34,373
04/07/2024 9,549 3,830 21,201 34,580
03/24/2024 9,465 3,721 23,745 36,931
03/10/2024 9,285 3,646 26,180 39,111
02/25/2024 9,288 3,548 26,339 39,175
02/11/2024 9,319 3,468 25,471 38,258
01/28/2024 9,114 3,412 25,972 38,498
01/13/2024 9,005 3,355 25,422 37,782
12/31/2023 9,003 3,332 24,796 37,131
12/17/2023 8,936 3,115 24,212 36,263
12/03/2023 8,838 3,074 24,843 36,755
11/19/2023 8,682 2,979 27,352 39,013
11/05/2023 8,426 3,008 28,314 39,748
10/03/2023 8,198 3,013 25,634 36,845
09/24/2023 8,074 2,966 24,249 35,289
09/10/2023 8,012 2,942 24,635 35,589
08/27/2023 8,105 2,994 21,644 32,743
08/13/2023 8,238 3,121 18,825 30,184
07/30/2023 8,422 3,325 18,691 30,438
07/16/2023 8,504 3,230 19,330 31,064
07/02/2023 8,032 3,022 18,949 30,003
06/18/2023 8,014 2,913 18,686 29,613
06/04/2023 7,839 2,751 19,324 29,914
05/21/2023 7,932 2,693 16,705 27,330
05/07/2023 7,840 2,509 10,944 21,293
04/23/2023 8,123 2,667 14,154 24,944
04/09/2023 8,289 2,580 14,884 25,753
03/26/2023 8,050 2,563 16,285 26,898
03/12/2023 7,952 2,579 17,192 27,723
02/26/2023 7,656 2,515 16,839 27,010
02/12/2023 7,281 2,434 16,695 26,410
01/29/2023 7,147 2,291 14,732 24,170
01/15/2023 7,010 2,172 11,710 20,892
01/01/2023 7,030 2,259 11,217 20,506
12/18/2022 7,041 2,301 13,718 23,060
12/04/2022 6,966 2,413 19,647 29,026
11/20/2022 6,886 2,385 20,730 30,001
10/31/2022 6,813 2,395 20,776 29,984
09/25/2022 6,430 2,040 16,664 25,134
09/10/2022 6,152 1,991 17,633 25,776
08/15/2022 5,903 1,778 16,446 24,127
07/31/2022 5,615 1,606 16,169 23,390
07/17/2022 5,550 1,538 15,798 22,886
07/05/2022 5,434 1,402 16,320 23,156
06/19/2022 5,505 1,343 16,542 23,390
06/05/2022 5,353 1,327 17,911 24,591
05/07/2022 5,021 1,226 16,034 22,281
04/24/2022 4,880 1,177 13,445 19,502
04/11/2022 4,629 1,082 13,135 18,846
03/27/2022 4,621 1,079 15,033 20,733
03/13/2022 4,692 1,049 14,405 20,146
02/27/2022 4,666 982 12,336 17,984
02/13/2022 4,727 999 14,222 19,948
01/16/2022 4,534 850 15,502 20,886
01/02/2022 4,471 860 16,737 22,068
12/19/2021 4,436 795 15,392 20,623
12/05/2021 4,559 931 16,462 21,952
11/21/2021 4,466 852 17,120 22,438
10/01/2021 4,537 852 16,740 22,129
09/16/2021 4,553 771 16,242 21,566
09/13/2021 4,443 808 17,763 23,014
08/24/2021 4,495 835 19,832 25,162
08/06/2021 4,502 971 20,053 25,526
07/22/2021 4,439 1,078 21,254 26,771
07/08/2021 4,433 1,117 21,667 27,217
06/24/2021 4,399 1,100 20,723 26,222
06/11/2021 4,338 1,037 19,088 24,463
05/28/2021 4,382 971 16,166 21,519
05/13/2021 4,490 686 13,865 19,041
05/03/2021 4,524 696 10,477 15,697
04/14/2021 4,765 826 9,545 15,136
03/31/2021 5,177 919 7,818 13,914
03/17/2021 5,857 1,252 6,943 14,052
02/25/2021 6,746 1,890 4,622 13,258
02/11/2021 7,362 2,306 4,427 14,095
01/22/2021 7,598 2,544 4,053 14,195
01/07/2021 8,189 2,864 4,391 15,444
12/30/2020 8,272 2,810 4,268 15,350
12/10/2020 8,448 2,948 4,376 15,772
11/26/2020 8,632 2,966 4,477 16,075
11/14/2020 8,931 2,974 4,729 16,634
09/18/2020 10,773 3,351 5,894 20,018
09/04/2020 11,149 3,236 6,104 20,489
08/21/2020 11,372 3,187 6,448 21,007
08/08/2020 11,321 3,113 6,684 21,118
08/01/2020 11,450 3,082 7,014 21,546
07/25/2020 11,510 3,114 7,260 21,884
07/18/2020 11,391 3,085 7,666 22,142
07/11/2020 11,492 3,071 7,777 22,340
07/04/2020 11,592 3,031 7,956 22,579
06/27/2020 11,632 3,096 8,077 22,805
06/20/2020 11,777 3,160 8,492 23,429
06/13/2020 11,986 3,244 8,811 24,041
06/06/2020 12,130 3,306 9,277 24,713
05/30/2020 12,279 3,373 9,769 25,421
05/23/2020 12,435 3,408 10,068 25,911
05/16/2020 12,599 3,454 10,607 26,660
05/09/2020 13,068 3,639 11,201 27,908
05/02/2020 13,183 3,779 11,903 28,865
04/25/2020 13,218 3,897 12,560 29,675
04/18/2020 13,380 4,070 13,287 30,737
04/11/2020 13,774 4,406 14,129 32,309
03/21/2020 14,782 5,264 18,012 38,058
02/29/2020 14,469 5,229 18,839 38,537
02/08/2020 14,464 5,184 19,774 39,422
01/04/2020 14,371 5,173 22,087 41,631
12/21/2019 14,295 4,993 22,645 41,933
11/30/2019 14,639 5,135 25,086 44,860
10/26/2019 15,594 5,203 28,622 49,419
09/30/2019 16,120 5,359 29,443 50,922
09/21/2019 15,695 5,341 30,266 51,302
08/31/2019 16,197 5,315 31,418 52,930
08/03/2019 16,676 5,493 33,485 55,654
06/01/2019 17,225 5,573 29,667 52,465
05/04/2019 17,537 5,686 26,422 49,645

The growth has been steady and sharp: detention numbers rose by over 5,000 in just the last two weeks of the data series alone.

Non-Criminal Immigration Violators Drive Growth

The largest category of detainees by far is “Other Immigration Violator”, meaning individuals with no pending or prior criminal charges. This group jumped from 11,217 in early 2023 to over 26,000 by mid-2025, more than doubling in that timeframe.

While criminal detainee categories also rose, the sheer volume of non-criminal detentions is the clearest signal of changing enforcement tactics under the Trump administration.

Comparing the Two Administrations

Biden-era figures remained relatively stable, with total detentions hovering between 20,000 and 40,000. Under Trump, however, ICE has rapidly expanded its detainee population, particularly since January 2025.

This policy shift echoes Trump’s first term, when detention levels frequently surpassed 50,000, peaking in mid-2019. The current trajectory suggests a return to those levels or  possibly beyond.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Top 25 Nationalities of US Immigrants on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 16:40

August 15, 1971 – The Beginning Of The End For US Hegemony

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August 15, 1971 – The Beginning Of The End For US Hegemony

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

Fifty-four years ago (August 15, 1971), Nixon took the USD off its gold standard, thereby officially putting the final nail in the Constitutionally mandated concept of US money.

But hey, at least the Constitution can still serve as a nice museum piece for kids to walk past.

Lies from on High

Back in 1971, the lies from on high (which are nothing new to any sophisticated and critically thinking citizen) were at full swing.

Nixon got on live TV and promised us the decoupling was “only temporary” (sound familiar?) and that “your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as today.”

But the fibbing did not start or end there.

Prior to the decoupling of August 15, the Treasury Secretary and Fed officials were making the case that gold was actually holding the dollar down and that decoupling gold would strengthen the dollar going forward, while gold’s value would, in fact, fall.

Hmmm.

Facts from Math…

A little fact-checking may be worth a smirk here…

First, the decoupling from gold has lasted more than half a century, so it hardly feels “temporary.”

As for the USD holding its purchasing power, well, when measured against a milligram of gold, that paper dollar has lost > 99% of its value since 1971.

Meanwhile, and contrary to the expert hearing testimony of a 1971 Fed Chairman and Treasury Secretary, gold has not got down in price, but has risen, by well… 8000%.

EIGHT THOUSAND PERCENT.

Huh?

What the Heck?

How was this possible? What did gold do in the last 54 years?

In fact, gold did very little.

But the dollar, now unfettered by its Constitutionally mandated gold-backing, got very, very, very busy multiplying (i.e., debasing) itself to pay for just criminally negligent deficit-spending.

Like a teenager with dad’s Amex, the debt and spend addiction of US “leadership” was officially born on August 15, 1971 –the very same day the USD’s death spiral began.

Don’t want to believe me? Don’t see the correlation?

Here’s another stubborn fact: In 1971, US public (governmental debt) was $ $398B.

As of this writing, that number has skyrocketed to $37.2T in the literal course of my lifetime…

History Ignored = History Repeated

The lesson is simple: Currencies backed by nothing will encourage debt addictions, which debase the purchasing power of paper money.

This is a cycle which has been repeated countless times throughout history. (See: The Faces and Cycles of Gold).

Gold, which is far more honest than policy makers, rises because paper money ALWAYS dies under the weight of dishonest spending.

From Dishonesty to Desperation

Dishonesty, of course, is always followed by a lack of accountability, which is in turn followed by behavioral patterns of desperation, finger-pointing and madness – like a sitting President calling a Fed Chairman, of whom we are no fans, “a total loser.”

The scope of policy desperation now masquerading as bold action (tariff policies, the Genuis Act, Fed name-calling and even increased “buzz” of a gold revaluation) is now a daily thing.

What’s even scarier is that such patterns aren’t unique to the USA; they are global…

Global debt in 1997 was $30T. Today, that figure has skyrocketed well past $300T.

In the interim, politicians and paid-for economists in DC think-tanks (oxymoron?) have hypnotized the masses into falsely believing that such otherwise unthinkable debt-levels could be sustained.

How?

By the equally unthinkable proposal that currencies mouse-clicked at a central bank could safely absorb such debt with no risk to the currency, economy or market.

But as we (and common sense) have reminded for years: You can’t solve a debt crisis with more debt that is then monetized with money created ex-nihilo out of thin air.

The First Kinks in the Armor: Credit Markets

Debt (as David Hume, von Mises and other critical-thinking “gold bugs” have warned for generations) breaks, well, just about everything…

Nowhere is this truer than in the US and global credit markets, where policy makers and investors whistle past debt crisis after debt crisis.

But debt crises are effectively just liquidity crises, and we have seen quite a string of them in recent (yet media-ignored) memory.

The repo crisis of 2019, for example, as well as the market implosion of 2020, the GILT crisis of 2022, the banking crisis of 2023 and even the tariff crisis of April, 2025 were ultimately just signposts of a liquidity/credit/debt crisis percolating in plain yet ignored sight.

In each instance, the foregoing credit implosions were “resolved” by dovish central bank reactions of either lower rates or higher money printing.

In other words: Can kicking to buy time, votes and excuses as the next generation inherits a nightmare.

The Second Kink in the Armor: Inflated Equity Bubbles

But expanding currency creation via grotesque credit expansion to provide “emergency” liquidity while subsidizing an otherwise unloved UST market and inflating an objectively over-valued stock market is no “solution.”

It is merely a frog-boil currency debasement which widens the pace of wealth inequality while rapidly feeding market bubbles, and by extension, market risk.

Market Bubbles Don’t Equal Strong Economies

For years, we have openly mocked the falsely positive fiction writing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for their false inflation reporting and comically (and seemingly constant) optimistic labor data.

But with Main Street now crawling under the invisible and misreported tax of inflation as well as downwardly revised job growth (which confirms a recession we have said is already here), Trump just fired the head of the same BLS for actually telling the truth.

Folks, regardless of your political bias, one really can’t make this kind of crazy up.

But why worry, as the immortal S&P, NASDAQ and DOW (90% owned by the USA’s top 10%) is going to save us, right?

Hmmm.

This S&P takes 40% of its market cap from 7 stocks whose net-income-margins are just waiting for a mean-reversion whenever the AI meme (just like prior memes, from dotcoms, real estate, electricity, automobiles and railroads) becomes over-crowed and over-bought.

Margin debt in US markets has surpassed the $1T mark, which is greater than prior peaks in the dot.com and pre-08 bubbles.

Meanwhile, insiders like Bezos are selling billions in personal shares, and Buffet himself is sitting largely (hundreds of billions) in cash as the NASDAQ trades at 49X earnings.

In short, if you think the markets with such a profile will save the US economy, think otherwise.

They are teetering on interest rate and recession risk reminiscent of 1929 America and 1989 Japan. When these bubbles popped, it took decades, not months, to recover prior highs.

Just saying.

The World (and Gold’s) Reaction to US Decline

As a post-2022 world turns increasingly away from a weaponized USD, and as the BRICS+ nations look with each passing day for new ways to trade outside the Greenback and net settle global trade deals in physical gold, the trend away from the USD and US debt, just like the BLS’ pessimistic labor data, can no longer be hidden in plain sight.

Equally undeniable is gold’s objective rise as a strategic global reserve asset preferred over the UST.

Since the USA shot itself in the foot by weaponizing an allegedly neutral reserve asset (the USD) in 2022, central bank stacking of gold has tripled while demand for USTs has tanked.

As of July 2025, even the BIS has confirmed gold’s status as a Tier-1 asset alongside the far less credible 10Y UST.

Demand for physical gold has shattered the hitherto (and legal)price-fixing at the New York and London metals exchange.

Rather than lever gold with paper, these dubious market-makers/exchanges are now forced to execute actual delivery rather than churn short contracts.

Meanwhile, gold trades are moving East, where the Shanghai and St. Petersburg exchanges are turning the tables on Western manipulation of an asset the East has understood far better (and longer) than the West.

More Desperation Follows…

In this backdrop of a world awash in unloved US Dollars, IOU’s and fantasy policies, DC has been forced to become more desperate in the face of a DXY which has seen the worst half-year performance in 40 years.

This desperation takes many forms, including shoot-from-the-hip tariff policies which change almost daily and send markets up and down like yo-yos, wherein trillions of equity market caps can be made or lost in hours.

Genuis Act Ruse

As demand and trust in the USD gyrates, DC is forced to create clever new projects to boost this demand, of which the Genuis Act (2nd oxymoron?) is the most recent example.

By pairing stablecoins to UST’s (and hence the USD), this king-maker act simply allows fintech giants (Tether, Circle Internet) and favored banks (JP Morgan) to issue stablecoin users a digital buck while the issuers reinvest client money into a UST arbitrage whereby they keep all the yield (profits) and the coin owner just gets a trackable, programable and take-able “coin.”

Such a profile, of course, makes stablecoins a CBDC in substance rather than form, as they are merely CBDC’s issued by private actors (directly tied to the Fed) rather than a central bank.

In short, a classic distinction without a difference.

Nor are stablecoins (3rd oxymoron?) either “stable” or a “coin.”

Like the banks which failed in 2023 due to UST volatility and interest rate swings, stablecoins rise and fall with bond yield gyrations.

Hence, these “stablecoins” are no more stable than Signature Valley Bank or the Treasury market itself, which, for anyone paying attention, is anything but stable…

The Only Option Left: More Debasement

Uncle Sam’s sovereign bonds are as sick as Uncle Sam’s fatally ill debt levels.

Unless trillions are “printed” at the Fed to buy those bonds, their demand and hence prices will fall, which means their yields will rise.

Bond yields, of course, represent the true cost of debt/borrowing, and with the US so indebted, it can NOT afford to allow bond yields to spike.

Like all debt-soaked nations throughout history, the Fed will thus be forced to chose between saving the bond market or saving the currency.

The dollar will be sacrificed (debased) to sustain the bond/debt market for the simple reason that debt is the only “force” supporting so-called American “growth” and “hegemony.”

Gold Revaluation – More Desperate than Effective

Meanwhile, there is serious talk of revaluing Uncle Sam’s 261 million ounces of $42.22 gold certificates to market or higher. There is equal and realistic buzz of a gold-backed Treasury, themes I’ve addressed at length elsewhere: Gold Revaluation: Trump’s Red Button Option.

Gold owners certainly welcome such revaluation, but the very need for such policies is merely enhanced confirmation that gold is needed and trusted more than the USD – even among US leadership…

Looking Ahead? It Looks Bad…

All of the foregoing facts confirm just how debt-distorted the US economy and narrative are, as of 2025.

They also confirm just how debt-trapped US policies have become. More importantly, they confirm just how doomed the US economy is going forward.

This is because the US growth narrative has zero good options left to it. Once debt/GDP ratios cross the 100% Rubicon (we are now at 120%+), growth mathematically slows by 1/3.

And the only way to bring this debt ratio down is via massive spending cuts well beyond the DOGE or USAID cuts. The real debts come from entitlements and military spending, which no politician can or will touch.

The US Already in Default?

Again, this leaves the US with only bad options to address unsustainable debt. It can either default or inflate away its debt.

Guess which option DC will (and has) take(n)?

But here’s the rub.

By inflating away its debt via currency debasement, inflation levels are soaring past UST yields, resulting in negative real rates – i.e. a NEGATIVE returning UST, which by definition, IS a defaulting bond.

The ironies abound…

But the US avoids publicly displaying this irony and default by simply lying about (i.e., misreporting) the US inflation rate, measured by a CPI scale that has been “modified” over 20 times since the Volcker era to mask actual inflation data.

Again: Just more desperation hiding in plain sight.

Gold Is Now So Clear

All of this explains gold’s massive rise after the 2022 turning point. If folks like you and I can see the desperation and balance sheet of the USA, the rest of the world can too.

That is why central banks, sovereign wealth funds and even the BIS itself are openly transitioning from bad “money” (i.e. fiat/paper “money”) to real money, i.e., physical gold.

Silver

Silver’s real moves, already significant in 2024 and 2025, are yet to come. In gold bull markets, silver dramatically outperforms.

We are not close to the gold/silver ratios of 1980 or 2011 (15 & 32, respectively), for the simple reason that despite 40% rises in 2025 (and outperforming the S&P since 2000), the gold bull market has yet to even gain its stride.

Meanwhile, silver, sitting atop a 5-year supply deficit and a 45-year cup & handle formation, continues to rise, and when priced in gold terms, silver is still attractively undervalued.

For patient investors, silver will be quite rewarding.

Preservation Is Wealth

Ultimately, however, our aim is wealth preservation first and foremost. Gold’s historical role as a store of value in times of paper money debacles means wealth is made by: (1) not losing it and (2) not measuring it in fiat terms.

If your own governments fail to protect your currency and wealth, the responsibility rests within each individual.

And with capital controls and centralization (as evidenced most recently by Stablecoin rushes) on the rise, the importance of holding an analog “pet rock” – directly in your name and outside of a dangerous banking system (with a legal firewall between your government) – could not be more compelling than today.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 – 16:20