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Key Events This Week: Light On Data, Heavy On Earnings

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Key Events This Week: Light On Data, Heavy On Earnings

As discussed earlier, this week is pretty quiet in terms of planned economic and macro events… although as Jim Reid notes, this year has been as busy as he can remember outside of a crisis in terms of unplanned events so the first part of this sentence will likely be proved to be meaningless. 

In terms of the known highlights, we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday alongside what is universally accepted to be an ECB on hold meeting. With the Fed on their blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC, the only noise will come from how hard Trump wants to continue to push on with criticizing Powell (on a daily basis). Powell does open a regulatory conference tomorrow but won’t discuss monetary policy given the blackout. 

The key US data are some regional manufacturing surveys tomorrow, existing home sales on Wednesday, new home sales, jobless claims and the Chicago Fed survey on Thursday, and then durable goods on Friday. 

In Europe, the key to the ECB meeting this Thursday is how long they’re expected to pause. The central bank will also release its bank lending survey tomorrow.

In terms of economic data, other sentiment indicators out in the region will include consumer confidence in Germany (Thursday), the UK, France and Italy (Friday). The German Ifo survey is out on Friday.

It’s certainly busier on the earnings side as we start to see Q2 earnings get fleshed out a little more this week with 135 S&P 500 and 189 Stoxx 600 companies reporting. Two of the Magnificent 7, Alphabet and Tesla, will report on Wednesday. Other tech firms releasing results this week include IBM, ServiceNow and Intel. Defence firms including RTX, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman also report.

In Europe, earnings will be due from the region’s largest company, SAP tomorrow. Three others from the top 10 by market cap – LVMH, Roche and Nestle – also report, along with several European banks. See the full day-by-day calendar of events as usual at the end 

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday July 21

  • Data: US June leading index, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, Canada June industrial product price index, raw materials price index
  • Central banks: BoC Q2 business outlook survey
  • Earnings: Verizon, Roper, NXP Semiconductors, Ryanair, Domino’s Pizza

Tuesday July 22

  • Data: US July Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Richmond Fed business conditions, UK June public finances, France June retail sales
  • Central banks: Fed’s Powell speaks, ECB’s bank lending survey, BoE’s Bailey speaks, RBA minutes of the July meeting
  • Earnings: SAP, Coca-Cola, RTX, Texas Instruments, Intuitive Surgical, Danaher, Capital One Financial, Chubb,
  • Lockheed Martin, Sherwin-Williams, Northrop Grumman, General Motors, MSCI, Givaudan, EQT, Equifax, Halliburton, Sartorius

Wednesday July 23

  • Data: US June existing home sales, Eurozone July consumer confidence
  • Central banks: BoJ’s Uchida speaks
  • Earnings: Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, T-Mobile US, ServiceNow, AT&T, Thermo Fisher Scientific, NextEra Energy, Boston Scientific, GE Vernova, Amphenol, Iberdrola, UniCredit, Fiserv, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Equinor, Hilton, Freeport-McMoRan, CSX, Thales, Moncler 
  • Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Thursday July 24

  • Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone flash July PMIs, US June Chicago Fed national activity index, new home sales, July Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Germany August GfK consumer confidence, France July business confidence, EU27 June new car registrations, Canada May retail sales
  • Central banks: ECB decision
  • Earnings: LVMH, Roche, Nestle, Blackstone, SK Hynix, Honeywell, TotalEnergies, Union Pacific, Intel, BNP Paribas, Newmont, Lloyds, Digital Realty Trust, Deutsche Boerse, Dassault Systemes, L3Harris, Keurig Dr Pepper, Galderma, Nokia, BT, MTU Aero Engines, Southwest Airlines, Dow, Sabadell, Repsol, Deckers Outdoor, Carrefour, American Airlines, Wizz Air
  • Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS ($21bn)

Friday July 25

  • Data: US June durable goods orders, July Kansas City Fed services activity, UK July GfK consumer confidence, June retail sales, Japan July Tokyo CPI, June PPI services, Germany July Ifo survey, France July consumer confidence, Italy July consumer and manufacturing confidence, Eurozone June M3
  • Central banks: ECB’s survey of professional forecasters
  • Earnings: HCA Healthcare, Charter Communications, Volkswagen, NatWest, Eni

Looking at just the US, the major economic data release this week is the durable goods report on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the July FOMC meeting. 

Monday, July 21 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled. 

Tuesday, July 22 

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Wednesday, July 23 

  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, June (GS +2.0%, consensus -0.7%, last +0.8%)

Thursday, July 24 

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 19 (GS 231k, consensus 230k, last 221k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 12 (consensus 1,960k, last 1,956k)
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, July preliminary (consensus 52.7, last 52.9): S&P Global US services PMI, July preliminary (consensus 53.1, last 52.9)
  • 10:00 AM New home sales, June (GS +3.1%, consensus +4.3%, last -13.7%)

Friday, July 25 

  • 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, June preliminary (GS -9.0%, consensus -10.8%, last +16.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June preliminary (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, June preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.7%); Core capital goods shipments, June preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%): We estimate that durable goods orders retrenched 9% in the preliminary June report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a partial normalization in commercial aircraft orders after last month’s spike. We forecast a 0.2% decline in core capital goods orders—reflecting contractionary new orders readings for manufacturing surveys in June and payback for the prior month’s outsized increase—and a 0.3% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the increase in orders over the prior month.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 11:15

Polymarket Buys Crypto Exchange, Opening Door To US Return

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Polymarket Buys Crypto Exchange, Opening Door To US Return

Just days after the DoJ and CFTC dropped their investigations into Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market has struck a deal that could herald the company’s official return to the US market.

As Bloomberg reports, the predictions marketplace is buying a little-known derivatives exchange called QCX, that will allow Polymarket to legally re-enter the US, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Polymarket will pay $112 million to acquire QCX, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.

QCX applied for CFTC licensing in 2022 and only got the regulator’s blessing to operate on July 9.

A spokesperson for Polymarket confirmed the acquisition.

The move will formally open the betting site to US users after its surging popularity in 2024 when users placed millions of dollars of wagers on President Trump returning to office.

Just this week they launched their first look at 2028 Presidential Odds

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 11:00

MindMed Shares Surge 10% As Psychedelics Gain Political Momentum Within Trump Admin

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MindMed Shares Surge 10% As Psychedelics Gain Political Momentum Within Trump Admin

Shares of MindMed and other psychedelic names are bid this morning as psychedelic therapies are experiencing a major inflection point in U.S. policy and public awareness, with bipartisan political support, a surge of veteran advocacy, and rising investor interest—all despite significant regulatory headwinds.

MindMed, one of our favorite psychedelic names, has been in a decisive uptrend since news first broke on July 16 that the Trump administration could be interested in fast-tracking the class of drugs.

Short interest in MindMed has risen throughout 2024 and recently hit a 3 year high of nearly 12M shares.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently signaled a dramatic shift in federal posture, telling lawmakers he expects psychedelic therapies for PTSD and depression to be available within 12 months.

“This line of therapeutics has tremendous advantage if given in a clinical setting and we are working very hard to make sure that happens within 12 months,” RFK Jr. said at the time.

His comments came as the FDA, now under Kennedy’s influence, weighs revisiting its recent rejection of MDMA (ecstasy) as a treatment for PTSD. Although an advisory panel voted against approval earlier this year—citing methodological flaws and safety concerns—the agency is reportedly considering reforms that could fast-track certain drugs, including psychedelics, by reducing trial burdens and review timelines.

The movement is getting unlikely support from conservative leaders, according to AP.  Former Trump administration officials like VA Secretary Doug Collins and Texas Governor Rick Perry have joined a chorus of military veterans urging Washington to approve psychedelics.

Perry recently championed a $50 million research initiative in Texas to study ibogaine, a potent and controversial psychedelic, for opioid addiction and trauma.

AP writes that veterans remain at the heart of the push. Groups like Heroic Hearts Project and VETS (Veterans Exploring Treatment Solutions) have backed more than a thousand veterans seeking psychedelic-assisted therapy abroad due to current legal restrictions in the U.S. Stories of transformation—like those of Jon Lubecky and Casey Tylek, who credit MDMA therapy with saving their lives—continue to resonate across party lines and within Congress.

Despite the FDA’s resistance to MDMA approval under the Biden administration, the agency now appears more receptive under Kennedy’s leadership. Meanwhile, veteran-founded nonprofits, large-scale memorials, and Capitol Hill briefings are helping to build public pressure.

Still, concerns persist. Critics warn that weakening scientific standards for approval could undermine credibility and patient safety. Prominent researchers caution that political enthusiasm must not outpace rigorous evidence, especially given allegations of data manipulation and ethical lapses in some MAPS-affiliated studies.

Yet the momentum is undeniable. With Washington warming to psychedelic medicine and several states launching their own research programs, the psychedelic sector is seeing renewed investor optimism for the first time in years.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 10:40

Sarepta Price Target Slashed To $0 At H.C. Wainwright As Stock Plunge Continues

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Sarepta Price Target Slashed To $0 At H.C. Wainwright As Stock Plunge Continues

Shares of Sarepta dropped as much as 11% in premarket trading and remain down about 6% after the cash open this morning.

The decline follows H.C. Wainwright’s reiteration of its Sell rating and a drastic cut in its price target—from $10 to $0—after the FDA requested Sarepta voluntarily withdraw its ELEVIDYS gene therapy from the market. Sarepta has reportedly declined to comply.

The FDA’s request follows a third liver-related death linked to the company’s gene therapy programs—two associated with ELEVIDYS and one from a separate LGMD subtype trial.

Sarepta shares have already plunged more than 90% over the past year, now trading at $14.08, down from a 52-week high of $150.48. According to Bloomberg, the stock now holds 7 Buy, 16 Hold, and 3 Sell ratings.

H.C. Wainwright raised concerns over Sarepta’s deteriorating commercial outlook, noting that its non-ELEVIDYS franchise is expected to decline, with 2025 revenue guidance of $900 million, down 6% year-over-year. Its LGMD2E asset, while still in development, addresses a very small patient population—estimated at just 250 cases annually.

Financially, Sarepta faces mounting pressure: it holds $1.1 billion in convertible debt due in 2027, against $850 million in cash. 

Sarepta has refused a request from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to halt all shipments of its gene therapy Elevidys after three patient deaths, we reported this weekend.

The FDA disclosed that two teenage boys with Duchenne muscular dystrophy, both unable to walk, died recently from acute liver failure after receiving Elevidys. In addition, a 51-year-old participant in a trial of a different Sarepta gene therapy targeting limb-girdle muscular dystrophy died last month, also of acute liver failure.

Bloomberg writes that following these events, FDA officials met with Sarepta and asked the company to voluntarily pause shipments of Elevidys, which accounts for more than half the company’s product revenue. “The company refused to do so,” the agency stated.

The stock indicates that the prevailing sentiment seems to be that the FDA may pull Sarepta’s drug off the market…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 10:25

Trump Threatens To Block Stadium Deal Unless Washington Commanders Restores Old Name

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Trump Threatens To Block Stadium Deal Unless Washington Commanders Restores Old Name

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said Sunday that he would block a stadium deal for the Washington Commanders unless the National Football League (NFL) team returns to its former name, the “Washington Redskins.”

The team dropped the “Redskins” name in 2020 after criticism that it was offensive to Native Americans, rebranding as the Washington Football Team and later adopting the name Washington Commanders in 2022.

“The Washington ‘Whatever’s’ should IMMEDIATELY change their name back to the Washington Redskins Football Team. There is a big clamoring for this,” Trump stated in a Truth Social post.

In a subsequent post, Trump said the team would be “much more valuable” if it reverted to its original name and warned of potential restrictions if the team refused to do so.

“I may put a restriction on them that if they don’t change the name back to the original ‘Washington Redskins,’ and get rid of the ridiculous moniker, ‘Washington Commanders,’ I won’t make a deal for them to build a Stadium in Washington,” he stated.

The Washington Commanders reached a $3.7 billion deal with the District of Columbia on April 28 to have the NFL team move back to the nation’s capital. The agreement will see the team play at the site of the defunct Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium, which will be demolished. The stadium is scheduled to break ground in 2026 and open in 2030.

The team currently plays at Northwest Field in Landover, Maryland. Its lease is set to expire in 2031, though the agreement does not prevent the Commanders from moving to another venue.

In his post, Trump also urged the Cleveland Guardians baseball team to revert to its former name, the Cleveland Indians, saying that “massive numbers” of Indian people want the name change to happen.

“Their heritage and prestige is systematically being taken away from them. Times are different now than they were three or four years ago. We are a country of passion and common sense,” he stated.

The Epoch Times has sought comment from both the Washington Commanders and the Cleveland Guardians but did not receive a response by publication time.

In November 2023, the Native American Guardian Association (NAGA) filed a complaint with the U.S. District Court of North Dakota calling for the restoration of the name Redskins to the NFL Washington team.

NAGA stated in the filing that the Commanders, formerly known as the Redskins, were “the only team in the NFL to honor an actual Native American.”

The National Congress of American Indians, which advocates for Native American communities, has previously expressed support for the team’s decision to retire the Redskins name.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 10:05

Can We Just Skip To Next Week

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Can We Just Skip To Next Week

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Can We Just Skip to Next Week?

Last week felt a bit “boring” despite some headlines on the future of the Fed, banks kicking off earnings season, and company after company associated with AI/Data Centers/High-End Chips having positive headlines. It might explain why the Dow and Russell 2000 did almost nothing, the S&P inched higher by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 led the way – up over 1%.

Despite the statements directed at the FOMC, 2-year bond yields moved less than 2 bps lower, while the 10-year moved less than 1 bp higher.

Expect more Fed headlines, since as we wrote on Thursday, we should expect to see more Out of the Box Thinking from the administration on how to reshape the Fed. It is not the path that I would choose, but it would surprise me if we didn’t start hearing about yield curve control or other “extraordinary” measures being recommended to the Fed. Recommended TO the Fed, not recommended BY the Fed, being a key distinction.

With much of the T-Report team spread across the country (even more so than usual), we will keep this report short. The data flow also helps keep it short. We might get interesting earnings results, or “unexpected” headlines (though the market seems to treat everything as expected these days), but not really looking for much to move markets next week (famous last words).

We will be looking to the U.S. Treasury Deposits Customs & Certain Excise Taxes data this week. Last month, the “big day” (there is one day that apparently captures most of the month’s tariffs) was $20 billion. It will be interesting to see how high that number comes in this month. There has been so little discussion about the Budget Surplus in June. While there were some potential “one-time” items, like June 1st not being a business day, pushing some spending into May, the tariff revenue is real. Also, the potential cumulative effects of tariffs are more likely to affect forthcoming economic data, than the headline numbers.

The following week we get:

  • Jobs Data. Last month delivered a healthy surprise (though much of it was tied to seasonals on government hiring). We don’t expect that to continue, but we didn’t think last month would be as strong as it was.

  • The Powell Press Conference (let’s be honest, that has the potential to be quite a show). Yes, we get the FOMC decision, but the presser should be illuminating.

  • The August 1st tariff “deadline.” The “deadline” that no one seems to believe will be an actual deadline as explored in last weekend’s Fool Me Once. If we don’t start getting deals (with tariffs meaningfully lower than the rates set out in various letters), the market could start to get more nervous, unless there are clear signs that extensions are on the way. This is the one area where the market seems to be underpricing risk, but there are so many positives that this might be the appropriate positioning. We continue to like being overweight companies and sectors that can benefit from deregulation and a further push to National Production for National Security.

It seems clear that the week after next has a lot more potential to be “exciting” than next week.

Disruption

What did stand out last week was the performance of “disruption” (using ARKK as a proxy) which was up over 7% on the week! Up 16% in a month, and 72% in 3 months!

The outperformance of “disruption” makes sense as crypto enjoyed another very successful week!

The Genius Act was signed into law. For many administrations, this would likely be the culmination of their efforts on cryptocurrency, but we expect this administration to continue to push the envelope and encourage the development of a U.S.-dominated crypto world – with USD-based stablecoins becoming a critical part of that effort.

Much of this was already priced into Bitcoin which finished the week basically unchanged (though it is up around 10% on the month). Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin (the disruption of disruption seems fitting) but we continue to like Ethereum. It surged almost 20% on the week and will likely be an even more important part of the crypto ecosystem as the industry moves to take advantage of the new legislation. ETHA, an Ethereum ETF, has seen its shares outstanding double since late May. The ETFs focused on Ethereum seem particularly inefficient, as they do not pass through any of the income that can be made by staking Ethereum. That is less of a concern for Bitcoin ETFs and is something that should lead to more product innovation to offer investors an alternative to participate in the total return of ETH, not just the price return.

With this major push behind us, it opens the door for more discussion on the sovereign wealth fund that was prominent early on, but seems to have faded in terms of headlines. That would help our National Production for National Security theory.

Bottom Line

As the week goes on, there will be more focus on tariffs and the August 1st “deadline.” A series of deals could alleviate the issue altogether (in addition to the fact that many people believe the administration has pivoted away from high levels of tariffs and will offer extensions to important trading partners). Finally, and maybe most importantly, the Liberation Day tariffs were actually implemented then retroactively retracted, so there might not even be a major reaction from markets if the tariffs stated in the letters go ahead. Having said that, the markets did seem to force the administration’s hand last time, causing it to reverse course to something in the range of what the market thought “reciprocal” tariffs meant. Without the markets pressuring the admin, why would they pull back? Seems a bit of a chicken and egg sort of issue, but nothing in the past week has changed our view that the market is so worried about Fool Me Once (and Not Getting Fooled Again), that we are setting ourselves up for precisely that.

Expecting a quiet, almost boring summer week, even accounting for some “unexpected” headlines.

Probably means that we will get some really crazy moves, disrupting people’s vacations, etc., but that seems far more likely to occur the week after next.

Saw my first game ever at Wrigley, have to admit, that was a cool experience!

Have a great (and likely quiet) week as we gear up for some potentially big moves the following week

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 08:05

“Effective Immediately”: Shipping Line Suspends EV Cargo Due To Lithium Battery Fire Concerns

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“Effective Immediately”: Shipping Line Suspends EV Cargo Due To Lithium Battery Fire Concerns

U.S. shipping and navigation services company Matson surprised customers in recent days by announcing new policies that halt all electric vehicle shipments due to the fire risk posed by lithium-ion batteries. This comes after the Morning Midas—a RoRo carrier transporting EVs and hybrids—erupted in flames early last month in the Pacific and subsequently sank. 

Shipping news website The Maritime Executive reports that Matson abruptly suspended the transport of EVs and plug-in hybrids, citing growing safety concerns over lithium-ion battery fires in a letter to clients. The new shipping policy took effect immediately and impacts trade routes across the U.S. mainland, Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam.

“Due to increasing concern for the safety of transporting vehicles powered by large lithium-ion batteries, Matson is suspending acceptance of used or new electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles for transport aboard its vessels. Effective immediately, we have ceased accepting new bookings for these shipments to/from all trades,” the letter stated. 

There was no definitive timeframe for when Matson plans to resume shipping EVs, but the company noted that it will do so once all appropriate safety solutions are in place.

The letter said, “Matson continues to support industry efforts to develop comprehensive standards and procedures to address fire risk posed by lithium-ion batteries at sea and plans to resume acceptance of them when appropriate safety solutions that meet our requirements can be implemented.”

The letter comes after the Morning Midas sank in the Pacific Ocean in early June following a fire on the ship. Cargo consisted of 70 EVs and nearly 700 hybrids.

Aerial reconnaissance imagery published on X showed white smoke billowing from Morning Midas’ stern section.

The incident mirrors the 2023 disaster off the Dutch coast, when a RoRo vessel carrying 3,000 vehicles—including 500 EVs—erupted in flames, raising global concerns over the fire risks while transporting EVs at sea. 

“Matson continues to transport conventional cars. It offers the service both trans-ocean and also moves the containers interisland in Hawaii as part of its barge service,” The Maritime Executive said. 

Insurance giant Allianz has repeatedly warned about the importance of enhanced safety protocols for maritime shipments involving lithium-ion batteries, citing the global surge in green technology—much of it produced by Chinese manufacturers. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 07:45

“Plan On It!” Martin Armstrong Sees ‘100% Chance Of Nuclear War’

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“Plan On It!” Martin Armstrong Sees ‘100% Chance Of Nuclear War’

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Six weeks ago, legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong was signaling a big turn toward war. 

Now, Armstrong says, “The chances of war with a nuclear exchange is at 100%. . .. Plan on it, this is coming.”

Can the world avoid nuclear war with President Trump’s 50-day deadline given to Russia to make peace in Ukraine?  Armstrong says, “You do not threaten your adversary that is at your same level, publicly.  If you want to say something like that, you do it privately in a phone call…” 

“Now, what will happen is Putin cannot possibly sign a peace deal. 

What, are you crazy . . . to do this in 50 days? 

We have staff in Germany, and I was told by my staff that a friend 60 years old was told to report to duty.  I had a friend who was at the Vienna Peace Conference, and he called me when it was over and said, ‘Holy crap, this has nothing to do with peace anymore.  This is all about preparing for war.  Everybody should start getting ready for drafts, to start going that way.’  They want war.  They are not backing off.”

Armstrong’s computer “Socrates” is signaling war as early as next month.  Armstrong says,

“Starting in August, this whole thing is going to be escalating up.  Our computer has what we call a ‘Panic Cycle’ with our war cycles for 2026. 

That is not good.  I don’t know what the hell Trump is smoking…

My computer has been projecting war, and it is projecting war going into 2026.  This is not looking good, and Europe will lose.  It is as simple as that.”

The other big event that happened that will change the economic system forever is the House just passed the so-called GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins).  The bill is now headed to President Trump to sign into law.  Armstrong contends that US debt is being sold by big holders of Treasuries, and we have to find a new market for our huge Treasury debt or we default. 

Treasury bonds will supposedly backstop stablecoins that the banks will control.  Armstrong says,

“This is really a repeat of 1863.  In the Civil War, they issued national bank notes.  The banks were told to buy the bonds.  They could buy bonds to fund the war, and they were allowed to issue currency backed by the bonds.  This is the same exact thing.  These stablecoins are the same thing as the 1863 National Bank Act.”

Stablecoins and the GENIUS Act are not good news for financial freedom or any other kind of civil liberty.  Armstrong says, “The government will say we don’t like this guy, debank him.  The government cannot do it directly.  So, they indirectly do it the other way…”

“I know guys that are gun dealers and bullion dealers, and they have been debanked.  This is the world we are going into.  

They know they are losing power.  Europe is far worse.  Spain now says you cannot take out $3,000 without government permission. 

They are trying to eliminate cash. . .. The forms of government we have today are going to collapse.  Republics are the most corrupt form of government — period.”

There is more in the 65-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong who is giving a red alert for a very destructive nuclear war for 7.19.25.

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com, click here.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 07:20

China’s Rare Earth Chokehold Eases – Just Enough To Keep US Hooked

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China’s Rare Earth Chokehold Eases – Just Enough To Keep US Hooked

China’s export controls on key rare earth elements (REEs) — particularly rare earth magnets essential for EVs, smartphones, fighter jets, and missiles — triggered a sharp drop in shipments to U.S. firms earlier this summer, disrupting production lines, including ones at Ford Motor Company. Now trade data shows a rebound in Chinese exports. Still, with Beijing controlling 90% of global REE supply, Washington has recognized the urgent need to build an “ex-China” supply chain.

The latest data from Bloomberg shows that China sharply increased exports of rare earth magnets in June — including to the U.S. Those shipments jumped to 3,188 tons in June from 1,238 tons in May, with U.S. imports rising to 353 tons from just 46 tons. Despite the rebound, exports remain depressed. 

Beijing imposed REE restrictions in April on seven REEs that disrupted global supply chains and prompted President Trump to secure a trade truce. China has resumed shipments, but the volume is insufficient to meet all demand.  

The Trump administration has recognized that America’s heavy reliance on imported REEs poses a growing national security risk and is now urgently working to map out an “ex-China supply chain.” Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley’s metals and mining team outlined the coming REE revolution — and how investors can profit from it (read here). 

In addition to Morgan Stanley’s REE report, the current trends in the space include the Pentagon and Apple taking stakes in MP Materials. This is part of Washington’s re-shoring of REEs. 

Rare Earths and permanent magnets are required for key defense applications…

Recall that one year ago, in our April 2024 note titled “Next Big Mineral Trade Revealed by Morgan Stanley,” we identified MP Materials as “one company that stands to benefit” from the restoration of America’s rare earth supply chain. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 06:55

Democrats Demand Investigation Into Colbert’s Cancelation

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Democrats Demand Investigation Into Colbert’s Cancelation

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In Washington, Democratic politicians are calling for a congressional investigation, while in New York, the Writers’ Guild is asking New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) for a state probe. No, the issue is not the use of the autopen by Biden staff to carry out presidential functions or the crisis in public education. No, it is the cancellation of “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” by CBS.

The outrage over the show’s cancellation is the latest example of presumed entitlement from the left, which suggests that the government, universities, and corporations should subsidize their preferred news and entertainment. Call it the NPR syndrome.

I wrote this weekend about the withdrawal of the government subsidy for NPR and the outrage of its overwhelmingly white, affluent, and liberal audience. Democrats in Congress and NPR’s shrinking listeners were appalled that the American taxpayers would not be required to fund the overwhelmingly liberal outlet. It appears that they are entitled to such federal money even though NPR is dropping in both its audience and revenues.

The outrage of Democratic politicians is hardly surprising. Like NPR, The Late Night Show was used to amplify Democratic talking points. Some of those objecting the loudest were favored guests. Indeed, the show had long ago traded the comedic stylings of prior guests like George Carlin and Don Rickles for the knee-slapping standups of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) and Sen. Adam Schiff (D., Cal.).

As Joe Concha recently noted, Warren, 76, appeared 16 times during the show’s ten-year run.

He offered a funereal opening after Trump’s election:

Colbert turned his monologues into diatribes against Donald Trump, Republicans, and most everyone to the right of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., NY), another regular guest. Socialist Bernie Sander (I., Vt) was one of Colbert’s most frequent guests followed by figures such as CBS anchor Gayle King (14 appearnces), CNN anchor Jake Tapper (12 appearances), and MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow (8 appearances). Note figures like Tapper had their own collapsing ratings but were still regulars for Colbert.

It did not matter that over half of this country is conservative or libertarian or that over 77 million Americans voted for Trump.

This cringeworthy video is effectively what the audience saw every night as Colbert sought to repackage comedy with orthodoxy:

Sen. Elizabeth Warren wrote on X that “America deserves to know if his show was canceled for political reasons.” She is right but an investigation is the last thing that liberals should want.

While many are pushing the false claim that the Late Show was a roaring success and number one among late night talk shows, the fact is that Colbert had run the show into the ground.

As Charles Gasparino discussed recently, the show was imposing “punishing losses — pegged between $40 million and $50 million a year” on Paramount at a time when the parent company was trying to sell CBS.

Colbert publicly slammed his employer on the show in settling a case with Trump for $16 million.

However, Colbert seemed more obsessed with pushing his political message than ratings.

Media companies are not in the habit of cancelling profit-making, successful shows, particularly not CBS which has just two prime time shows in the Top 15.

The fact is that Colbert was over paid and underperforming.

Colbert was reportedly pulling in between $15-$20 million as his show was losing $40 million a year. The show had over 100 staffers and cost $130 million to produce.

Advertisers had fled the show, clearly seeing Colbert’s shrinking audience as not a draw for spots. It is a pattern seen on the other largely left-leaning shows.

As Concha noted: “late-night shows on ABC, NBC, and CBS earned $439 million in ad revenue in 2018 combined, but just $220 million in 2024. That’s a 50% decline in less than seven years.”

In comparison, Greg Gutfeld had long trounced Colbert and the other late night shows with a relatively small staff and budget. Viewers were flocking to Fox for his content as the other late night show with a conservative perspective.

Yet, there remains the outrage. Liberal politicians and viewers seem to believe that they are entitled to shows, movies and news programs that maintain their echo chamber. Likewise, celebrities such as Rachel Zegler cratered their movies with controversial political declarations.

Now, despite losing tens of millions of dollars a year, liberals seem to believe that Paramount should subsidize an unfunny show with declining viewership. It is the same mentality of Washington Post writers who were outraged when their new editor told that that they were losing money and “people are not reading your stuff.” They expected billionaire Jeff Bezos to run the Post like a vanity project regardless of their losses or that they were primarily writing for each other. They were wrong just as Colbert was wrong.

Colbert believed that he could tailor his show to less than half of the country and bring in a slew of liberal politicians and media figures who were themselves losing elections and ratings. I cannot imagine why that business plan would fail.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/21/2025 – 06:30

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